The hidden burden of measles in Ethiopia: how distance to hospital shapes the disease mortality rate.

BACKGROUND: A sequence of annual measles epidemics has been observed from January 2013 to April 2017 in the South West Shoa Zone of the Oromia Region, Ethiopia. We aimed at estimating the burden of disease in the affected area, taking into account inequalities in access to health care due to travel distances from the nearest hospital. METHODS: We developed a dynamic transmission model calibrated on the time series of hospitalized measles cases. The model provided estimates of disease transmissibility and incidence at a population level. Model estimates were combined with a spatial analysis to quantify the hidden burden of disease and to identify spatial heterogeneities characterizing the effectiveness of the public health system in detecting severe measles infections and preventing deaths. RESULTS: A total of 1819 case patients and 36 deaths were recorded at the hospital. The mean age was 6.0 years (range, 0-65). The estimated reproduction number was 16.5 (95% credible interval (CI) 14.5-18.3) with a cumulative disease incidence of 2.34% (95% CI 2.06-2.66). Three thousand eight hundred twenty-one (95% CI 1969-5671) severe cases, including 2337 (95% CI 716-4009) measles-related deaths, were estimated in the Woliso hospital's catchment area (521,771 inhabitants). The case fatality rate was found to remarkably increase with travel distance from the nearest hospital: ranging from 0.6% to more than 19% at 20 km. Accordingly, hospital treatment prevented 1049 (95% CI 757-1342) deaths in the area. CONCLUSIONS: Spatial heterogeneity in the access to health care can dramatically affect the burden of measles disease in low-income settings. In sub-Saharan Africa, passive surveillance based on hospital admitted cases might miss up to 60% of severe cases and 98% of related deaths.

[Report on a measles epidemic in the Ústí nad Labem Region]. / Vyhodnocení epidemie spalnicek v Ústeckém kraji.

The Czech Republic is a measles free country where only isolated, mostly imported cases have been reported. A measles epidemic that occurred in the Ústí nad Labem Region is presented, with the first case diagnosed early in February 2014 and the last one reported in August 2014. The index case and source of infection to other susceptible patients was an adult male with a history of travel to India. The diagnosis of measles was difficult to make as the patient presented with feverish condition due to co-infection with dengue fever, chikungunya, and measles. The primary measles outbreak occurred in contacts and spread to health workers of the Masaryk Hospital in Ústí nad Labem. The infection further spread to the general population of adults. In total, 305 persons presented with suspected measles. One hundred and eighty-six and of them (61%) met the criteria for a confirmed case (positive clinical symptoms and laboratory test). Fifty (16.4%) patients developed typical clinical symptoms and were epidemiologically linked to confirmed cases, but turned out to be antibody negative. In 69 (22.6%) patients, measles were ruled out. Cases were confirmed by the detection of IgM and IgG antibodies against the measles virus or by RT--PCR. Nearly all cases were verified by the National Reference Laboratory for Rubella, Measles, Mumps, and Parvovirus B 19 of the National Institute of Public Health in Prague. In response to the epidemic, apart from common anti-epidemic measures, emergency vaccination was provided to health professionals of the Masaryk Hospital in Ústí nad Labem. Within two weeks after vaccination, a considerable decline in cases was seen in the vaccinated group. Measles most often occurred in persons born in 1970-1980, but were also observed in the smallest, non-vaccinated children (32 cases). Isolated cases also emerged in duly vaccinated children and adolescents. General recommendations are provided based on practical experience from the epidemic.

Vaccine Coverage in Children Younger Than 1 Year of Age during Periods of High Epidemiological Risk: Are We Preparing for New Outbreaks?

Background: According to WHO, infectious disease control can be achieved if the vaccine coverage (VC) exceeds 90%. In recent years there has been a declining trend in VC which could lead to the recurrence of infectious diseases. Objectives: The study analyzed the determinants of VC and of parental decisions regarding immunization in children aged 0−1 year monitored during two high-risk epidemiological periods (the measles epidemic and the COVID-19 pandemic period). Methods: A retrospective observational cohort study-data regarding vaccination of children younger than 1 year of age during the periods January 2019−June 2019 (measles epidemic) and January 2020−June 2020 (COVID-19 pandemic) were analyzed. 2.850 children from 2019 and 2.823 children from 2020 were enrolled. Family physicians interacted with 2840 parents or legal guardians in 2019 and with 2800 parents or legal guardians in 2020, during the infants' consults providing medical information and answer to their questions and worries regarding their immunization. Data on immunization schedules on the determinants of parents' decisions regarding vaccination were evaluated. Results: During 2019−2020, VC has followed a declining trend for each type of vaccine included in the Romanian National Immunization Program; the most affected were infants aged 9−12 months during both periods: in 9-month aged infants, the MMR vaccine VC was 67.49% in 2019 vs. 59.04% in 2020 (p < 0.004). In the 12 months aged infants, the MMR VC was 64.29% in 2019 vs. 55.88% in 2020 (p < 0.005). For the Hexavalent vaccine administered at the age of 11 months, the VC was 71.59% in 2019 vs. 62.08% in 2020 (p < 0.001). The determinants of parents' decisions regarding vaccination included parental hesitance 2019­25% vs. 2020­35%, fear on side effects 2019­32% vs. 2020­45%, vaccination denial 2019­7% vs. 2020­10%. Conclusion: We found a declining trend in the VC in Romania during the epidemic and pandemic periods. The decrease in VC for MMR generated a major risk for new measles outbreaks Permanent awareness educational campaigns regarding infectious disease risk are needed, accompanied by the empowerment of primary care and the emergence of an immunization management program based on national regulatory legislation.

Measles in Romania - clinical and epidemiological characteristics of hospitalized measles cases during the first three years of the 2016-ongoing epidemic.

A large measles epidemic has been ongoing in Romania and many European countries, since 2016. We report case-based surveillance data for all patients (n = 1371) with laboratory-confirmed and epidemiologically-confirmed measles hospitalized in a major infectious diseases hospital in Bucharest Romania during the first three years of the current measles epidemic (July 2016-July 2019). More than half of the patients (57.6%) had ages below 5 years; 6% (n = 82) had preexisting comorbidities. Only 1.5% of the patients had been fully vaccinated, 5.9% had received only one vaccine dose, while 92.8% had not been vaccinated at all against measles. The rate of measles-related complications was 93.4%; complications occurred more frequently among patients who were not eligible for vaccination due to young age or underlying diseases, and among children, who developed pneumonia and enterocolitis more frequently than adults. The median hospital length-of-stay was 6 days. Eight cases (0.6%) required intensive care and mechanical ventilation, and three deaths (0.2%) were recorded. Measles disproportionately affects patient groups who are not eligible for vaccination. During the current epidemic in Romania, 98.5% of the patients hospitalized for measles had not been vaccinated and among these, 75.7% would have been eligible for vaccination. For the remaining pool of unvaccinated children, supplementary immunization activities are urgently needed.

Measles outbreak response decision-making under uncertainty: a retrospective analysis.

Resurgent outbreaks of vaccine-preventable diseases that have previously been controlled or eliminated have been observed in many settings. Reactive vaccination campaigns may successfully control outbreaks but must necessarily be implemented in the face of considerable uncertainty. Real-time surveillance may provide critical information about at-risk population and optimal vaccination targets, but may itself be limited by the specificity of disease confirmation. We propose an integrated modelling approach that synthesizes historical demographic and vaccination data with real-time outbreak surveillance via a dynamic transmission model and an age-specific disease confirmation model. We apply this framework to data from the 1996-1997 measles outbreak in São Paulo, Brazil. To simulate the information available to decision-makers, we truncated the surveillance data to what would have been available at 1 or 2 months prior to the realized interventions. We use the model, fitted to real-time observations, to evaluate the likelihood that candidate age-targeted interventions could control the outbreak. Using only data available prior to the interventions, we estimate that a significant excess of susceptible adults would prevent child-targeted campaigns from controlling the outbreak and that failing to account for age-specific confirmation rates would underestimate the importance of adult-targeted vaccination.

Editorial: Sarampión: Una epidemia prevenible / Editorial Measles: A preventable epidemic

El sarampión una enfermedad que en el siglo IX (860-932)fue descrita por el médico persa Muhammad ibn Zacariya al-Razi quien la diferenció de la viruela por sus síntomas y signos clínicos .

Measles epidemic from 1951 to 2012 and vaccine effectiveness in Guangzhou, southern China.

BACKGROUND: Since the National Expanded Program on Immunization was implemented in China, considerable progress has been made in reducing the incidence of measles. However, the incidence of measles increased again in 2004. Few post-marketing studies on measles vaccine effectiveness were reported in China. In this study, we aimed to describe the measles epidemic and to evaluate the effectiveness of the measles vaccine in Guangzhou, southern China. METHODS: Based on the surveillance data for measles, we investigated the epidemiology during different periods between 1951 and 2012. We analyzed the clinical characteristics of laboratory-confirmed cases of measles between 2009 and 2012 and conducted a case-control study using test-negative cases as controls. We determined the protective effect of measles vaccine. RESULTS: The highest annual incidence in Guangzhou was 2187.15/100,000 in 1964, and the lowest was 0.32/100,000 in 2011. The average incidence of measles from 1951 to 2012 was 306.27/100,000. There was a significant tendency of decline in recent years. From 2009 to 2012, there are 700 laboratory-confirmed cases were reported with an average onset age of 2.5 (median) years. The non-vaccinated target population (age<8 months and ≥ 15 years) accounted for 56.7% of the cases. The transient (non-resident) population accounted for 51.3% of the cases. Fewer cases were observed in the population targeted for measles vaccine (aged 8 months to 14 years). The effectiveness of a single dose of the measles vaccine was 89.1% (95% confidence interval (CI), 44.5-97.9), and the effectiveness of ≥ 2 doses of the measles vaccine was 97.8% (95% CI, 88.3-99.6) in children aged 8 months to 14 years old. CONCLUSIONS: There is a significant overall decline in the incidence of measles (including clinical and laboratory confirmed cases) in the measles vaccine targeted population in Guangzhou. Two doses of measles vaccine are more effective than one dose in preventing measles in China. In order to accelerate the elimination of measles, vaccination should also be given to the transient and the non-vaccine targeted population.

Measles epidemic in Davao City: 2017-2018

@#Diseases of epidemic potential are on surveillance using the Philippine Integrated Disease Surveillance and Response (PIDSR) system maintained by the Department of Health (DOH) regional offices. Southern Philippines Medical Center (SPMC) contributes data to this system through the Regional Epidemiology Surveillance Unit of Region XI (RESU XI), which releases summary surveillance reports on a weekly basis. The report itself is a count of patients with disease signs or symptoms, suspected disease conditions, specific clinical diagnoses, or laboratory-confirmed diagnoses. Per DOH policy, a single notification of a measles diagnosis needs confirmation and investigation. An increasing number of cases warrants the initiation of outbreak response immunizations (ORI) by the local government, even before an epidemic is formally declared. Serologic confirmation of measles is performed at the Research Institute for Tropical Medicine (RITM) in Muntinlupa, Alabang.

Practical observations from an epidemiological investigation of a measles outbreak in a district of India.

BACKGROUND: Measles is a major cause of childhood morbidity and mortality, accounting for nearly half of the morbidity associated with global vaccine preventable diseases. Regular outbreaks of Measles are reported in India, of which only a few are investigated. This study was conducted in the Shivpuri District of Madhya Pradesh (India) to investigate and asses various epidemiological factors associated with measles outbreak. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A cross-sectional study was carried out in 30 randomly selected sub-centers in 8 blocks of the Shivpuri District of Madhya Pradesh, covering 212 villages, selected by cluster sampling. The villages, which had reported measles cases, were extensively investigated by the field teams through extensive house-to-house surveys during 12-19 May 2004. RESULTS: A total of 1204 cases with 14 deaths were reported with an attack rate of 6.2% and a case fatality rate of 1.2%. In this study, 17.7% of the cases reported post-measles complications with diarrhea as the most common post measles complication. The routine measles vaccine and Vitamin A supplementation in the area was also less than 30%. CONCLUSIONS: The majority of the cases had occurred in the unvaccinated children and in under 5 year old population. There are repeated outbreaks and a long delay in reporting of the cases. The occurrence of cases, in a reasonable proportion of the vaccinated population, points toward the fact that there is a possibility of a vaccine failure in older children. This study calls for an improved surveillance system, an improvement in the cold chain, and enhancements for measles vaccination if India is to achieve the goal of measles elimination.