The risk analysis index demonstrates exceptional discrimination in predicting frailty's impact on neurosurgical length of stay quality metrics.

BACKGROUND: Quality measures determine reimbursement rates and penalties in value-based payment models. Frailty impacts these quality metrics across surgical specialties. We compared the discriminatory thresholds for the risk analysis index (RAI), modified frailty index-5 (mFI-5) and increasing patient age for the outcomes of extended length of stay (LOS [eLOS]), prolonged LOS within 30 days (pLOS), and protracted LOS (LOS > 30). METHODS: Patients ≥18 years old who underwent neurosurgical procedures between 2012 and 2020 were queried from the ACS-NSQIP. We performed receiver operating characteristic analysis, and multivariable analyses to examine discriminatory thresholds and identify independent associations. RESULTS: There were 411,605 patients included, with a median age of 59 years (IQR, 48-69), 52.2% male patients, and a white majority 75.2%. For eLOS: RAI C-statistic 0.653 (95% CI: 0.652-0.655), versus mFI-5 C-statistic 0.552 (95% CI: 0.550-0.554) and increasing patient age C-statistic 0.573 (95% CI: 0.571-0.575). Similar trends were observed for pLOS- RAI: 0.718, mFI-5: 0.568, increasing patient age: 0.559, and for LOS>30- RAI: 0.714, mFI-5: 0.548, and increasing patient age: 0.506. Patients with major complications had eLOS 10.1%, pLOS 26.5%, and LOS >30 45.5%. RAI showed a larger effect for all three outcomes, and major complications in multivariable analyses. CONCLUSION: Increasing frailty was associated with three key quality metrics that is, eLOS, pLOS, LOS > 30 after neurosurgical procedures. The RAI demonstrated a higher discriminating threshold compared to both mFI-5 and increasing patient age. Preoperative frailty screening may improve quality metrics through risk mitigation strategies and better preoperative communication with patients and their families.

Preoperative frailty measured by risk analysis index predicts complications and poor discharge outcomes after Brain Tumor Resection in a large multi-center analysis.

PURPOSE: To evaluate the independent effect of frailty, as measured by the Risk Analysis Index-Administrative (RAI-A) for postoperative complications and discharge outcomes following brain tumor resection (BTR) in a large multi-center analysis. METHODS: Patients undergoing BTR were queried from the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (NSIQP) for the years 2015 to 2019. Multivariable logistic regression was performed to evaluate the independent associations between frailty tools (age, 5-factor modified frailty score [mFI-5], and RAI-A) on postoperative complications and discharge outcomes. RESULTS: We identified 30,951 patients who underwent craniotomy for BTR; the median age of our study sample was 59 (IQR 47-68) years old and 47.8% of patients were male. Overall, increasing RAI-A score, in an overall stepwise fashion, was associated with increasing risk of adverse outcomes including in-hospital mortality, non-routine discharge, major complications, Clavien-Dindo Grade IV complication, and extended length of stay. Multivariable regression analysis (adjusting for age, sex, BMI, non-elective surgery status, race, and ethnicity) demonstrated that RAI-A was an independent predictor for worse BTR outcomes. The RAI-A tiers 41-45 (1.2% cohort) and > 45 (0.3% cohort) were ~ 4 (Odds Ratio [OR]: 4.3, 95% CI: 2.1-8.9) and ~ 9 (OR: 9.5, 95% CI: 3.9-22.9) times more likely to have in-hospital mortality compared to RAI-A 0-20 (34% cohort). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Increasing preoperative frailty as measured by the RAI-A score is independently associated with increased risk of complications and adverse discharge outcomes after BTR. The RAI-A may help providers present better preoperative risk assessment for patients and families weighing the risks and benefits of potential BTR.

Preoperative Risk Prediction for Pancreatectomy: A Comparative Analysis of Three Scoring Systems.

INTRODUCTION: Pancreatectomy is associated with high morbidity and mortality. Therefore, patient selection and risk prediction is paramount. In this study, three validated perioperative risk scoring systems were compared among patients undergoing pancreatectomy to identify the most clinically useful model. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The 2014-2017 American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database was queried for pancreatectomy patients. Three models were evaluated: National Surgical Quality Improvement Program Universal Risk Calculator (URC), Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD), and Modified Frailty Index-5 Factor (mFI-5). Outcomes were 30-d mortality and complications. Predictive performance of the models was compared using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and Brier scores. RESULTS: Twenty two thousand one hundred twenty three pancreatectomy patients were identified. The 30-d mortality rate was 1.4% (n = 319). Complications occurred in 6020 cases (27.2%). AUC (95% CI) for 30-d mortality were 0.70 (0.67-0.73), 0.63 (0.60-0.67), and 0.60 (0.57-0.63) for URC, MELD, and mFI-5, respectively, with Brier score of 0.014 for all three models. AUC (95% confidence interval) for any complication was 0.59 (0.58-0.59) for URC, 0.53 (0.52-0.54) for MELD, and 0.53 (0.52-0.54) for mFI-5, with Brier scores 0.193 (URC), 0.200 (MELD), and 0.197 (mFI-5). For individual complications, URC was more predictive than MELD or mFI-5. CONCLUSIONS: Of the validated preoperative risk scoring systems, URC was most predictive of both complications and 30-d mortality. None of the models performed better than fair to good. The lack of predictive accuracy of currently existing models highlights the need for development of improved perioperative risk models.

5-year outcomes of surgical intervention in patients with adult spine deformity according to preoperative 5-item modified frailty index scores.

PURPOSE: Frailty increases vulnerability to dependency and/or death, and is important in predicting the risk for adverse effects following adult spinal deformity (ASD) surgery. For easy determination of frailty, the 5-item modified frailty index (mFI-5) was established. However, there are few reports that show the relationship between frailty and mid-term operative outcomes after ASD surgery. The objective of this retrospective study is to determine the correlation of frailty using mFi-5 scores with postoperative medical complications, patient reported outcome measures (PROMs), and radiographic alignment 5 years after ASD surgery. METHODS: 208 patients were divided into robust (R), pre-frail (PF), and frail (F) groups based on mFI-5 scores. Postoperative medical complications, preoperative and 5-year follow-up PROMs and radiographic alignment were evaluated. RESULTS: The study included 91, 79, and 38 patients in group R, PF, and F, respectively. There was no significant difference in age and sex. Discharge to care facility (16 (18%):21 (27%):16 (42%), p = 0.014) and postoperative cardiac complications (2 (2%):0 (0%):3 (8%), p = 0.031) were higher in frail patients. Preoperative ODI (38.3:45.3:54.7, p < 0.001) and SRS-22 (2.7:2.5:2.3, p = 0.004), 5-year postoperative ODI (27:27.2:37.9, p = 0.015), 5-year postoperative SVA (57.8°:78.5°:86.4°, p = 0.039) and 5-year postoperative TPA (23.9°:29.4°:29.5°, p = 0.011) were significantly worse in group F compared to group R. CONCLUSION: Postoperatively, frail patients are more likely to have cardiac complications, inferior PROMs and deterioration of post-correction global spinal alignment. Preoperative assessment using mFI-5 is beneficial to individualize risks, optimize patients, and manage postoperative expectations.

The Weight of Frailty in Neurosurgery Patients: Analyzing the Combined Effect of Frailty and Body Mass Index on 30-Day Postoperative Mortality.

OBJECTIVE: There is a rising prevalence of overweight and obese persons in the US, and there is a paucity of information about the relationship between frailty and body mass index. Therefore, we examined discrimination thresholds and independent relationships of the risk analysis index (RAI), modified frailty index-5 (mFI-5), and increasing patient age in predicting 30-day postoperative mortality. METHODS: This retrospective American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program analysis compared all overweight or obese adult patients who underwent neurosurgery procedures between 2012 and 2020. We compared discrimination using receiver operating characteristic curve analysis for RAI, mFI-5, and increasing patient age. Furthermore, multivariable analyses, as well as subgroup analyses by procedure type i.e., spine, skull base, and other (vascular and functional) were performed, and reported as odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). RESULTS: We included 315,725/412,909 (76.5%) neurosurgery patients, with a median age of 59 years (interquartile range: 48-68), predominately White 76.7% and male 54.3%. Receiver operating characteristic analysis for 30-day postoperative mortality demonstrated a higher discriminatory threshold for RAI (C-statistic: 0.790, 95%CI: 0.782-0.800) compared to mFI-5 (C-statistic: 0.692, 95%CI: 0.620-0.638) and increasing patient age (C-statistic: 0.659, 95%CI: 0.650-0.668). Multivariable analyses showed a dose-dependent association and a larger magnitude of effect by RAI: frail patients OR: 11.82 (95%CI: 10.57-13.24), and very frail patients OR: 31.19 (95%CI: 24.87-39.12). A similar trend was observed in all subgroup analyses i.e., spine, skull base, and other (vascular and functional) procedures (P ≤ 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Increasing frailty was associated with a higher rate of 30-day postoperative mortality, with a dose-dependent effect. Furthermore, the RAI had a higher threshold for discrimination and larger effect sizes than mFI-5 and increasing patient age. These findings support RAI's use in preoperative assessments, as it has the potential to improve postoperative outcomes through targeted interventions.

The risk analysis index demonstrates superior discriminative ability in predicting extended length of stay in pituitary adenoma resection patients when compared to the 5-point modified frailty index.

Objective: To compare the predictive abilities of two frailty indices on post-operative morbidity and mortality in patients undergoing pituitary adenoma resection. Methods: The National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (NSQIP) database was used to retrospectively collect data for patients undergoing pituitary adenoma resection between 2015-2019. To compare the predictive abilities of two of the most common frailty indices, the 5-point modified frailty index (mFI-5) and the risk analysis index (RAI), receiver operating curve analysis (ROC) and area under the curve (AUC)/Cstatistic were used. Results: In our cohort of 1,454 patients, the RAI demonstrated superior discriminative ability to the mFI-5 in predicting extended length of stay (C-statistic 0.59, 95% CI 0.56-0.62 vs. C-statistic 0.51, 95% CI: 0.48-0.54, p = 0.0002). The RAI only descriptively appeared superior to mFI-5 in determining mortality (C-statistic 0.89, 95% CI 0.74-0.99 vs. Cstatistic 0.63, 95% CI 0.61-0.66, p=0.11), and NHD (C-statistic 0.68, 95% CI 0.60-0.76 vs. C-statistic 0.60, 95% CI: 0.57-0.62, p=0.15). Conclusions: Pituitary adenomas account for one of the most common brain tumors in the general population, with resection being the preferred treatment for patients with most hormone producing tumors or those causing compressive symptoms. Although pituitary adenoma resection is generally safe, patients who experience post-operative complications frequently share similar pre-operative characteristics and comorbidities. Therefore, appropriate pre-operative risk stratification is imperative for adequate patient counseling and informed consent in these patients. Here we present the first known report showing the superior discriminatory ability of the RAI in predicting eLOS when compared to the mFI-5.

Frailty Predicts 30-day mortality following major complications in neurosurgery patients: The risk analysis index has superior discrimination compared to modified frailty index-5 and increasing patient age.

Background: Postoperative complications after cranial or spine surgery are prevalent, and frailty can be a key contributing patient factor. Therefore, we evaluated frailty's impact on 30-day mortality. We compared the discrimination for risk analysis index (RAI), modified frailty index-5 (mFI-5) and increasing patient age for predicting 30-day mortality. Methods: Patients with major complications following neurosurgery procedures between 2012- 2020 in the ACS-NSQIP database were included. We employed receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and examined discrimination thresholds for RAI, mFI-5, and increasing patient age for 30-day mortality. Independent relationships were examined using multivariable analysis. Results: There were 19,096 patients included in the study and in the ROC analysis for 30-day mortality, RAI showed superior discriminant validity threshold C-statistic 0.655 (95% CI: 0.644-0.666), compared to mFI-5 C-statistic 0.570 (95% CI 0.559-0.581), and increasing patient age C-statistic 0.607 (95% CI 0.595-0.619). When the patient population was divided into subsets based on the procedures type (spinal, cranial or other), spine procedures had the highest discriminant validity threshold for RAI (Cstatistic 0.717). Furthermore, there was a frailty risk tier dose response relationship with 30-day mortalityy (p<0.001). Conclusion: When a major complication arises after neurosurgical procedures, frail patients have a higher likelihood of dying within 30 days than their non-frail counterparts. The RAI demonstrated a higher discriminant validity threshold than mFI-5 and increasing patient age, making it a more clinically relevant tool for identifying and stratifying patients by frailty risk tiers. These findings highlight the importance of initiatives geared toward optimizing frail patients, to mitigate long-term disability.

The Utility of the 5 Factor Modified Frailty Index in Outcome Prediction for Patients with Chronic Subdural Hematoma Treated with Surgical Drainage.

OBJECTIVE: Increasing frailty is a significant determinant of perioperative morbidity and mortality within neurosurgical literature. This study investigates the predictive value of the modified frailty index 5 (mFI-5) for postoperative morbidity and mortality following surgical drainage of chronic subdural hematoma (cSDH). METHODS: A retrospective cohort study was performed on patients who underwent surgical evacuation of a cSDH. The mFI-5 score was calculated for each patient and used to stratify patients: prefrail (mFI-5<2), frail (mFI-5 = 2), and severely frail (mFI-5>2). Multivariate Cox proportional hazards (CPH) regression analysis were used to identify factors associated with our primary outcomes: overall survival and 30-day readmission. Secondary outcomes included nonhome discharge, length of stay, hematoma accumulation, development of new postoperative neurologic deficits, resolution of preoperative neurologic deficits, and a modified Rankin score >2 at discharge. RESULTS: 118 patients with a mean age of 74.4 ± 11.9 years were analyzed. All baseline demographics were similar across the 3 groups. On multivariate analysis, severely frail patients (N = 24, 20.3%) had increased rates of 30-day readmission (hazard ratio [HR] 4.3, CPH regression P value<0.001) and postoperative mortality (HR 3.1, CPH regression P value<0.01) compared to the prefrail cohort. Severely frail patients had increased rates of nonhome disposition (HR 9.6, CPH regression P value< 0.001), development of new postoperative neurologic deficits (HR 2.75, CPH regression P value = 0.03), and hematoma reaccumulation (HR 4.07, CPH regression P value = 0.004). A novel scoring system accounting for patient age and frailty was predictive of 90-day mortality (area under the curve 0.77). CONCLUSIONS: Frailty, measured by the mFI-5, and our novel scoring system hold a predictive value regarding outcomes for patients undergoing surgical drainage of a cSDH.

Frailty Is Associated With Decreased Survival in Adult Patients With Nonoperative and Operative Traumatic Subdural Hemorrhage: A Retrospective Cohort Study of 381,754 Patients.

Objective: We investigated frailty's impact on traumatic subdural hematoma (tSDH), examining its relationship with major complications, length of hospital stay (LOS), mortality, high level of care discharges, and survival probabilities following nonoperative and operative management. Background: Despite its frequency as a neurosurgical emergency, frailty's impact on tSDH remains underexplored. Frailty characterized by multisystem impairments significantly predicts poor outcomes, necessitating further investigation. Methods: A retrospective study examining tSDH patients ≥18 years and assigned an abbreviated injury scale score ≥3, and entered into ACS-TQIP between 2007 and 2020. We employed multivariable analyses for risk-adjusted associations of frailty and our outcomes, and Kaplan-Meier plots for survival probability. Results: Overall, 381,754 tSDH patients were identified by mFI-5 as robust-39.8%, normal-32.5%, frail-20.5%, and very frail-7.2%. There were 340,096 nonoperative and 41,658 operative patients. The median age was 70.0 (54.0-81.0) nonoperative, and 71.0 (57.0-80.0) operative cohorts. Cohorts were predominately male and White. Multivariable analyses showed a stepwise relationship with all outcomes P < 0.001; 7.1% nonoperative and 14.9% operative patients had an 20% to 46% increased risk of mortality, that is, nonoperative: very frail (HR: 1.20 [95% CI: 1.13-1.26]), and operative: very frail (HR: 1.46 [95% CI: 1.38-1.55]). There were precipitous reductions in survival probability across mFI-5 strata. Conclusion: Frailty was associated with major complications, LOS, mortality, and high level care discharges in a nationwide population of 381,754 patients. While timely surgery may be required for patients with tSDH, rapid deployment of point-of-care risk assessment for frailty creates an opportunity to equip physicians in allocating resources more precisely, possibly leading to better outcomes.

A comprehensive analysis of the triad of frailty, aging, and obesity in spine surgery: the risk analysis index predicted 30-day mortality with superior discrimination.

BACKGROUND CONTEXT: The United States has experienced substantial shifts in its population dynamics due to an aging population and increasing obesity rates. Nonetheless, there is limited data about the interplay between the triad of frailty, aging, and obesity. PURPOSE: To investigate discriminative thresholds and independent associations of the Risk Analysis Index (RAI), Modified Frailty Index-5 (mFI-5), and greater patient age. STUDY DESIGN: An observational retrospective cohort study. PATIENT SAMPLE: We analyzed 49,754 spine surgery patients from the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database from 2012 to 2020. OUTCOME MEASURE: A total of 30-day postoperative mortality. METHODS: Using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) and multivariable (odds ratios [OR] and 95% confidence intervals [CI]) analyses, we compared the discriminative thresholds and independent associations of RAI, mFI-5, and greater patient age in elderly obese patients who underwent spine surgery. RESULTS: There were 49,754 spine surgery patients, with a median age of 71 years (IQR: 68-75), largely white (82.6%) and male (51.9%). The ROC analysis for 30-day postoperative mortality demonstrated superior discrimination for RAI (C-statistic 0.779, 95%CI 0.54-0.805) compared to mFI-5 (C-statistic 0.623, 95% CI 0.594-0.651) and greater patient age (C-statistic 0.627, 95% CI 0.598-0.656). Multivariable analyses revealed a dose-dependent association and a larger effect magnitude for RAI: frail patients OR: 19.52 (95% CI 18.29-20.82) and very frail patients OR: 65.81 (95% CI 62.32-69.50). A similar trend was observed in the interaction evaluating RAI-age-obesity (p<.001). CONCLUSION: Our study highlights a strong association between frailty and 30-day postoperative mortality in elderly obese spine patients, revealing a dose-dependent relationship. The RAI has superior discrimination than the mFI-5 and greater patient age in predicting 30-day postoperative mortality after spine surgery. Using the RAI in preoperative assessments may improve outcomes and help healthcare providers effectively communicate accurate surgical risks and potential benefits, set realistic recovery expectations, and enhances patient satisfaction.