Future recovery of baleen whales is imperiled by climate change.

Historical harvesting pushed many whale species to the brink of extinction. Although most Southern Hemisphere populations are slowly recovering, the influence of future climate change on their recovery remains unknown. We investigate the impacts of two anthropogenic pressures-historical commercial whaling and future climate change-on populations of baleen whales (blue, fin, humpback, Antarctic minke, southern right) and their prey (krill and copepods) in the Southern Ocean. We use a climate-biological coupled "Model of Intermediate Complexity for Ecosystem Assessments" (MICE) that links krill and whale population dynamics with climate change drivers, including changes in ocean temperature, primary productivity and sea ice. Models predict negative future impacts of climate change on krill and all whale species, although the magnitude of impacts on whales differs among populations. Despite initial recovery from historical whaling, models predict concerning declines under climate change, even local extinctions by 2100, for Pacific populations of blue, fin and southern right whales, and Atlantic/Indian fin and humpback whales. Predicted declines were a consequence of reduced prey (copepods/krill) from warming and increasing interspecific competition between whale species. We model whale population recovery under an alternative scenario whereby whales adapt their migratory patterns to accommodate changing sea ice in the Antarctic and a shifting prey base. Plasticity in range size and migration was predicted to improve recovery for ice-associated blue and minke whales. Our study highlights the need for ongoing protection to help depleted whale populations recover, as well as local management to ensure the krill prey base remains viable, but this may have limited success without immediate action to reduce emissions.

Examining the relationship between local extinction risk and position in range.

Over half of globally threatened animal species have experienced rapid geographic range loss. Identifying the parts of species' distributions most vulnerable to local extinction would benefit conservation planning. However, previous studies give little consensus on whether ranges decline to the core or edge. We built on previous work by using empirical data to examine the position of recent local extinctions within species' geographic ranges, address range position as a continuum, and explore the influence of environmental factors. We aggregated point-locality data for 125 Galliform species from across the Palearctic and Indo-Malaya into equal-area half-degree grid cells and used a multispecies dynamic Bayesian occupancy model to estimate rates of local extinctions. Our model provides a novel approach to identify loss of populations from within species ranges. We investigated the relationship between extinction rates and distance from range edge by examining whether patterns were consistent across biogeographic realm and different categories of land use. In the Palearctic, local extinctions occurred closer to the range edge than range core in both unconverted and human-dominated landscapes. In Indo-Malaya, no pattern was found for unconverted landscapes, but in human-dominated landscapes extinctions tended to occur closer to the core than the edge. Our results suggest that local and regional factors override general spatial patterns of recent local extinction within species' ranges and highlight the difficulty of predicting the parts of a species' distribution most vulnerable to threat.

Spatial and temporal dynamics of cell generations within an invasion wave: a link to cell lineage tracing.

Mathematical models of a cell invasion wave have included both continuum partial differential equation (PDE) approaches and discrete agent-based cellular automata (CA) approaches. Here we are interested in modelling the spatial and temporal dynamics of the number of divisions (generation number) that cells have undergone by any time point within an invasion wave. In the CA framework this is performed from agent lineage tracings, while in the PDE approach a multi-species generalized Fisher equation is derived for the cell density within each generation. Both paradigms exhibit qualitatively similar cell generation densities that are spatially organized, with agents of low generation number rapidly attaining a steady state (with average generation number increasing linearly with distance) behind the moving wave and with evolving high generation number at the wavefront. This regularity in the generation spatial distributions is in contrast to the highly stochastic nature of the underlying lineage dynamics of the population. In addition, we construct a method for determining the lineage tracings of all agents without labelling and tracking the agents, but through either a knowledge of the spatial distribution of the generations or the number of agents in each generation. This involves determining generation-dependent proliferation probabilities and using these to define a generation-dependent Galton-Watson (GDGW) process. Monte-Carlo simulations of the GDGW process are used to determine the individual lineage tracings. The lineages of the GDGW process are analyzed using Lorenz curves and found to be similar to outcomes generated by direct lineage tracing in CA realizations. This analysis provides the basis for a potentially useful technique for deducing cell lineage data when imaging every cell is not feasible.

Multispecies biofilm behavior and host interaction support the association of Tannerella serpentiformis with periodontal health.

The recently identified bacterium Tannerella serpentiformis is the closest phylogenetic relative of Tannerella forsythia, whose presence in oral biofilms is associated with periodontitis. Conversely, T. serpentiformis is considered health-associated. This discrepancy was investigated in a comparative study of the two Tannerella species. The biofilm behavior was analyzed upon their addition and of Porphyromonas gingivalis-each bacterium separately or in combinations-to an in vitro five-species oral model biofilm. Biofilm composition and architecture was analyzed quantitatively using real-time PCR and qualitatively by fluorescence in situ hybridization/confocal laser scanning microscopy, and by scanning electron microscopy. The presence of T. serpentiformis led to a decrease of the total cell number of biofilm bacteria, while P. gingivalis was growth-promoting. This effect was mitigated by T. serpentiformis when added to the biofilm together with P. gingivalis. Notably, T. serpentiformis outcompeted T. forsythia numbers when the two species were simultaneously added to the biofilm compared to biofilms containing T. forsythia alone. Tannerella serpentiformis appeared evenly distributed throughout the multispecies biofilm, while T. forsythia was surface-located. Adhesion and invasion assays revealed that T. serpentiformis was significantly less effective in invading human gingival epithelial cells than T. forsythia. Furthermore, compared to T. forsythia, a higher immunostimulatory potential of human gingival fibroblasts and macrophages was revealed for T. serpentiformis, based on mRNA expression levels of the inflammatory mediators interleukin 6 (IL-6), IL-8, monocyte chemoattractant protein-1 and tumor necrosis factor α, and production of the corresponding proteins. Collectively, these data support the potential of T. serpentiformis to interfere with biological processes relevant to the establishment of periodontitis.

Model Evaluation of the Microbial Metabolic Processes in a Hydrogen-Based Membrane Biofilm Reactor for Simultaneous Bromate and Nitrate Reduction.

The H2-based membrane biofilm reactor (H2-MBfR) has been acknowledged as a cost-effective microbial reduction technology for oxyanion removal from drinking water sources, but it remains unknown how the evolution of biofilm characteristics responds to the changing critical operating parameters of the H2-MBfR for simultaneous bromate (BrO3-) and nitrate (NO3-) elimination. Therefore, an expanded multispecies model, applicable to mechanistically interpret the bromate-reducing bacteria (BRB)- and denitrifying bacteria (DNB)-dominated metabolic processes in the biofilm of the H2-MBfR, was developed in this study. The model outputs indicate that (1) increased BrO3- loading facilitated the metabolism of BRB by increasing BRB fraction and BrO3- gradients in the biofilm, but had a marginal influence on NO3- reduction; (2) H2 pressure of 0.04 MPa enabled the minimal loss of H2 and the extension of the active region of BRB and DNB in the biofilm; (3) once the influent NO3- concentration was beyond 10 mg N/L, the fraction and activity of BRB significantly declined; (4) BRB was more tolerant than DNB for the acidic aquatic environment incurred by the CO2 pressure over 0.02 MPa. The results corroborate that the degree of microbial competition for substrates and space in the biofilm was dependent on system operating parameters.

Determination of rate constants and branching ratios for TCE degradation by zero-valent iron using a chain decay multispecies model.

The applicability of a newly-developed chain-decay multispecies model (CMM) was validated by obtaining kinetic rate constants and branching ratios along the reaction pathways of trichloroethene (TCE) reduction by zero-valent iron (ZVI) from column experiments. Changes in rate constants and branching ratios for individual reactions for degradation products over time for two columns under different geochemical conditions were examined to provide ranges of those parameters expected over the long-term. As compared to the column receiving deionized water, the column receiving dissolved CaCO3 showed higher mean degradation rates for TCE and all of its degradation products. However, the column experienced faster reactivity loss toward TCE degradation due to precipitation of secondary carbonate minerals, as indicated by a higher value for the ratio of maximum to minimum TCE degradation rate observed over time. From the calculated branching ratios, it was found that TCE and cis-dichloroethene (cis-DCE) were dominantly dechlorinated to chloroacetylene and acetylene, respectively, through reductive elimination for both columns. The CMM model, validated by the column test data in this study, provides a convenient tool to determine simultaneously the critical design parameters for permeable reactive barriers and natural attenuation such as rate constants and branching ratios.