RepurposeDrugs: an interactive web-portal and predictive platform for repurposing mono- and combination therapies.

RepurposeDrugs (https://repurposedrugs.org/) is a comprehensive web-portal that combines a unique drug indication database with a machine learning (ML) predictor to discover new drug-indication associations for approved as well as investigational mono and combination therapies. The platform provides detailed information on treatment status, disease indications and clinical trials across 25 indication categories, including neoplasms and cardiovascular conditions. The current version comprises 4314 compounds (approved, terminated or investigational) and 161 drug combinations linked to 1756 indications/conditions, totaling 28 148 drug-disease pairs. By leveraging data on both approved and failed indications, RepurposeDrugs provides ML-based predictions for the approval potential of new drug-disease indications, both for mono- and combinatorial therapies, demonstrating high predictive accuracy in cross-validation. The validity of the ML predictor is validated through a number of real-world case studies, demonstrating its predictive power to accurately identify repurposing candidates with a high likelihood of future approval. To our knowledge, RepurposeDrugs web-portal is the first integrative database and ML-based predictor for interactive exploration and prediction of both single-drug and combination approval likelihood across indications. Given its broad coverage of indication areas and therapeutic options, we expect it accelerates many future drug repurposing projects.

Dysbiosis and Associated Stool Features Improve Prediction of Response to Biological Therapy in Inflammatory Bowel Disease.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Dysbiosis of the gut microbiota is considered a key contributor to inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) etiology. Here, we investigated potential associations between microbiota composition and the outcomes to biological therapies. METHODS: The study prospectively recruited 296 patients with active IBD (203 with Crohn's disease, 93 with ulcerative colitis) initiating biological therapy. Quantitative microbiome profiles of pretreatment and posttreatment fecal samples were obtained combining flow cytometry with 16S amplicon sequencing. Therapeutic response was assessed by endoscopy, patient-reported outcomes, and changes in fecal calprotectin. The effect of therapy on microbiome variation was evaluated using constrained ordination methods. Prediction of therapy outcome was performed using logistic regression with 5-fold cross-validation. RESULTS: At baseline, 65.9% of patients carried the dysbiotic Bacteroides2 (Bact2) enterotype, with a significantly higher prevalence among patients with ileal involvement (76.8%). Microbiome variation was associated with the choice of biological therapy rather than with therapeutic outcome. Only anti-tumor necrosis factor-α treatment resulted in a microbiome shift away from Bact2, concomitant with an increase in microbial load and butyrogen abundances and a decrease in potentially opportunistic Veillonella. Remission rates for patients hosting Bact2 at baseline were significantly higher with anti-tumor necrosis factor-α than with vedolizumab (65.1% vs 35.2%). A prediction model, based on anthropometrics and clinical data, stool features (microbial load, moisture, and calprotectin), and Bact2 detection predicted treatment outcome with 73.9% accuracy for specific biological therapies. CONCLUSION: Fecal characterization based on microbial load, moisture content, calprotectin concentration, and enterotyping may aid in the therapeutic choice of biological therapy in IBD.

Attention-based generative adversarial networks improve prognostic outcome prediction of cancer from multimodal data.

The prediction of prognostic outcome is critical for the development of efficient cancer therapeutics and potential personalized medicine. However, due to the heterogeneity and diversity of multimodal data of cancer, data integration and feature selection remain a challenge for prognostic outcome prediction. We proposed a deep learning method with generative adversarial network based on sequential channel-spatial attention modules (CSAM-GAN), a multimodal data integration and feature selection approach, for accomplishing prognostic stratification tasks in cancer. Sequential channel-spatial attention modules equipped with an encoder-decoder are applied for the input features of multimodal data to accurately refine selected features. A discriminator network was proposed to make the generator and discriminator learning in an adversarial way to accurately describe the complex heterogeneous information of multiple modal data. We conducted extensive experiments with various feature selection and classification methods and confirmed that the CSAM-GAN via the multilayer deep neural network (DNN) classifier outperformed these baseline methods on two different multimodal data sets with miRNA expression, mRNA expression and histopathological image data: lower-grade glioma and kidney renal clear cell carcinoma. The CSAM-GAN via the multilayer DNN classifier bridges the gap between heterogenous multimodal data and prognostic outcome prediction.

Benchmarking of analytical combinations for COVID-19 outcome prediction using single-cell RNA sequencing data.

The advances of single-cell transcriptomic technologies have led to increasing use of single-cell RNA sequencing (scRNA-seq) data in large-scale patient cohort studies. The resulting high-dimensional data can be summarized and incorporated into patient outcome prediction models in several ways; however, there is a pressing need to understand the impact of analytical decisions on such model quality. In this study, we evaluate the impact of analytical choices on model choices, ensemble learning strategies and integrate approaches on patient outcome prediction using five scRNA-seq COVID-19 datasets. First, we examine the difference in performance between using single-view feature space versus multi-view feature space. Next, we survey multiple learning platforms from classical machine learning to modern deep learning methods. Lastly, we compare different integration approaches when combining datasets is necessary. Through benchmarking such analytical combinations, our study highlights the power of ensemble learning, consistency among different learning methods and robustness to dataset normalization when using multiple datasets as the model input.

High-multiplex single-cell imaging analysis reveals tumor immune contexture associated with clinical outcomes after CAR T cell therapy.

Chimeric antigen receptor (CAR) T cell therapy has made great progress in treating lymphoma, yet patient outcomes still vary greatly. The lymphoma microenvironment may be an important factor in the efficacy of CAR T therapy. In this study, we designed a highly multiplexed imaging mass cytometry (IMC) panel to simultaneously quantify 31 biomarkers from 13 patients with relapsed/refractory diffuse large B cell lymphoma (DLBCL) who received CAR19/22 T cell therapy. A total of 20 sections were sampled before CAR T cell infusion or after infusion when relapse occurred. A total of 35 cell clusters were identified, annotated, and subsequently redefined into 10 metaclusters. The CD4+ T cell fraction was positively associated with remission duration. Significantly higher Ki67, CD57, and TIM3 levels and lower CD69 levels in T cells, especially the CD8+/CD4+ Tem and Te cell subsets, were seen in patients with poor outcomes. Cellular neighborhood containing more immune cells was associated with longer remission. Fibroblasts and vascular endothelial cells resided much closer to tumor cells in patients with poor response and short remission after CAR T therapy. Our work comprehensively and systematically dissects the relationship between cell composition, state, and spatial arrangement in the DLBCL microenvironment and the outcomes of CAR T cell therapy, which is beneficial to predict CAR T therapy efficacy.

Artificial intelligence in cardiovascular medicine: clinical applications.

Clinical medicine requires the integration of various forms of patient data including demographics, symptom characteristics, electrocardiogram findings, laboratory values, biomarker levels, and imaging studies. Decision-making on the optimal management should be based on a high probability that the envisaged treatment is appropriate, provides benefit, and bears no or little potential harm. To that end, personalized risk-benefit considerations should guide the management of individual patients to achieve optimal results. These basic clinical tasks have become more and more challenging with the massively growing data now available; artificial intelligence and machine learning (AI/ML) can provide assistance for clinicians by obtaining and comprehensively preparing the history of patients, analysing face and voice and other clinical features, by integrating laboratory results, biomarkers, and imaging. Furthermore, AI/ML can provide a comprehensive risk assessment as a basis of optimal acute and chronic care. The clinical usefulness of AI/ML algorithms should be carefully assessed, validated with confirmation datasets before clinical use, and repeatedly re-evaluated as patient phenotypes change. This review provides an overview of the current data revolution that has changed and will continue to change the face of clinical medicine radically, if properly used, to the benefit of physicians and patients alike.

Lack of evidence for predictive utility from resting state fMRI data for individual exposure-based cognitive behavioral therapy outcomes: A machine learning study in two large multi-site samples in anxiety disorders.

Data-based predictions of individual Cognitive Behavioral Therapy (CBT) treatment response are a fundamental step towards precision medicine. Past studies demonstrated only moderate prediction accuracy (i.e. ability to discriminate between responders and non-responders of a given treatment) when using clinical routine data such as demographic and questionnaire data, while neuroimaging data achieved superior prediction accuracy. However, these studies may be considerably biased due to very limited sample sizes and bias-prone methodology. Adequately powered and cross-validated samples are a prerequisite to evaluate predictive performance and to identify the most promising predictors. We therefore analyzed resting state functional magnet resonance imaging (rs-fMRI) data from two large clinical trials to test whether functional neuroimaging data continues to provide good prediction accuracy in much larger samples. Data came from two distinct German multicenter studies on exposure-based CBT for anxiety disorders, the Protect-AD and SpiderVR studies. We separately and independently preprocessed baseline rs-fMRI data from n = 220 patients (Protect-AD) and n = 190 patients (SpiderVR) and extracted a variety of features, including ROI-to-ROI and edge-functional connectivity, sliding-windows, and graph measures. Including these features in sophisticated machine learning pipelines, we found that predictions of individual outcomes never significantly differed from chance level, even when conducting a range of exploratory post-hoc analyses. Moreover, resting state data never provided prediction accuracy beyond the sociodemographic and clinical data. The analyses were independent of each other in terms of selecting methods to process resting state data for prediction input as well as in the used parameters of the machine learning pipelines, corroborating the external validity of the results. These similar findings in two independent studies, analyzed separately, urge caution regarding the interpretation of promising prediction results based on neuroimaging data from small samples and emphasizes that some of the prediction accuracies from previous studies may result from overestimation due to homogeneous data and weak cross-validation schemes. The promise of resting-state neuroimaging data to play an important role in the prediction of CBT treatment outcomes in patients with anxiety disorders remains yet to be delivered.

Quantification of Diffusion Magnetic Resonance Imaging for Prognostic Prediction of Neonatal Hypoxic-Ischemic Encephalopathy.

Neonatal hypoxic-ischemic encephalopathy (HIE) is the leading cause of acquired neonatal brain injury with the risk of developing serious neurological sequelae and death. An accurate and robust prediction of short- and long-term outcomes may provide clinicians and families with fundamental evidence for their decision-making, the design of treatment strategies, and the discussion of developmental intervention plans after discharge. Diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) is one of the most powerful neuroimaging tools with which to predict the prognosis of neonatal HIE by providing microscopic features that cannot be assessed by conventional magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). DTI provides various scalar measures that represent the properties of the tissue, such as fractional anisotropy (FA) and mean diffusivity (MD). Since the characteristics of the diffusion of water molecules represented by these measures are affected by the microscopic cellular and extracellular environment, such as the orientation of structural components and cell density, they are often used to study the normal developmental trajectory of the brain and as indicators of various tissue damage, including HIE-related pathologies, such as cytotoxic edema, vascular edema, inflammation, cell death, and Wallerian degeneration. Previous studies have demonstrated widespread alteration in DTI measurements in severe cases of HIE and more localized changes in neonates with mild-to-moderate HIE. In an attempt to establish cutoff values to predict the occurrence of neurological sequelae, MD and FA measurements in the corpus callosum, thalamus, basal ganglia, corticospinal tract, and frontal white matter have proven to have an excellent ability to predict severe neurological outcomes. In addition, a recent study has suggested that a data-driven, unbiased approach using machine learning techniques on features obtained from whole-brain image quantification may accurately predict the prognosis of HIE, including for mild-to-moderate cases. Further efforts are needed to overcome current challenges, such as MRI infrastructure, diffusion modeling methods, and data harmonization for clinical application. In addition, external validation of predictive models is essential for clinical application of DTI to prognostication.

Mapping the Spatial Dynamics of the CD4+ T Cell Spectrum in Classical Hodgkin Lymphoma.

As around 25% to 30% of classical Hodgkin lymphoma (cHL) patients with advanced stages do not respond to standard therapies, the tumor microenvironment of cHL is one avenue that may be explored with the aim of improving risk stratification. CD4+ T cells are thought to be one of the main cell types in the tumor microenvironment. However, few immune signatures have been studied, and many of these lack related spatial data. Thus, our aim is to spatially resolve the CD4+ T cell subtypes that influence cHL outcome, depicting new immune signatures or transcriptional patterns that are in crosstalk with the tumor cells. This study was conducted using the NanoString GeoMx digital spatial profiling technology, based on the selection of distinct functional areas of patients' tissues followed by gene-expression profiling. The goals were to assess the differences in CD4+ T cell populations between tumor-rich and immune-predominant areas defined by different CD30 and PD-L1 expression levels and seek correlations with clinical metadata. Our results depict a complex map of CD4+ T cells with different functions and differentiation states that are enriched at distinct locations, the flux of cytokines and chemokines that could be related to these, and the specific relationships with the clinical outcome.

Guidelines on the classification of foot ulcers in people with diabetes (IWGDF 2023 update).

BACKGROUND: This publication represents a scheduled update of the 2019 guidelines of the International Working Group of the Diabetic Foot (IWGDF) addressing the use of systems to classify foot ulcers in people with diabetes in routine clinical practice. The guidelines are based on a systematic review of the available literature that identified 28 classifications addressed in 149 articles and, subsequently, expert opinion using the GRADE methodology. METHODS: First, we have developed a list of classification systems considered as being potentially adequate for use in a clinical setting, through the summary of judgements for diagnostic tests, focussing on the usability, accuracy and reliability of each system to predict ulcer-related complications as well as use of resources. Second, we have determined, following group debate and consensus, which of them should be used in specific clinical scenarios. Following this process, in a person with diabetes and a foot ulcer we recommend: (a) for communication among healthcare professionals: to use the SINBAD (Site, Ischaemia, Bacterial infection, Area and Depth) system (first option) or consider using WIfI (Wound, Ischaemia, foot Infection) system (alternative option, when the required equipment and level of expertise is available and it is considered feasible) and in each case the individual variables that compose the systems should be described rather than a total score; (b) for predicting the outcome of an ulcer in a specific individual: no existing system could be recommended; (c) for characterising a person with an infected ulcer: the use of the IDSA/IWGDF classification (first option) or consider using the WIfI system (alternative option, when the required equipment and level of expertise is available and it is considered as feasible); (d) for characterising a person with peripheral artery disease: consider using the WIfI system as a means to stratify healing likelihood and amputation risk; (e) for the audit of outcome(s) of populations: the use of the SINBAD score. CONCLUSIONS: For all recommendations made using GRADE, the certainty of evidence was judged, at best, as being low. Nevertheless, based on the rational application of current data this approach allowed the proposal of recommendations, which are likely to have clinical utility.

Classification of foot ulcers in people with diabetes: A systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Classification and scoring systems can help both clinical management and audit the outcomes of routine care. AIM: This study aimed to assess published systems used to characterise ulcers in people with diabetes to determine which should be recommended to (a) aid communication between health professionals, (b) predict clinical outcome of individual ulcers, (c) characterise people with infection and/or peripheral arterial disease, and (d) audit to compare outcomes in different populations. This systematic review is part of the process of developing the 2023 guidelines to classify foot ulcers from the International Working Group on Diabetic Foot. METHODS: We searched PubMed, Scopus and Web of Science for articles published up to December 2021 which evaluated the association, accuracy or reliability of systems used to classify ulcers in people with diabetes. Published classifications had to have been validated in populations of >80% of people with diabetes and a foot ulcer. RESULTS: We found 28 systems addressed in 149 studies. Overall, the certainty of the evidence for each classification was low or very low, with 19 (68%) of the classifications being assessed by ≤ 3 studies. The most frequently validated system was the one from Meggitt-Wagner, but the articles validating this system focused mainly on the association between the different grades and amputation. Clinical outcomes were not standardized but included ulcer-free survival, ulcer healing, hospitalisation, limb amputation, mortality, and cost. CONCLUSION: Despite the limitations, this systematic review provided sufficient evidence to support recommendations on the use of six particular systems in specific clinical scenarios.

Models using comprehensive, lesion-level, longitudinal [68Ga]Ga-DOTA-TATE PET-derived features lead to superior outcome prediction in neuroendocrine tumor patients treated with [177Lu]Lu-DOTA-TATE.

PURPOSE: Somatostatin receptor (SSTR) imaging features are predictive of treatment outcome for neuroendocrine tumor (NET) patients receiving peptide receptor radionuclide therapy (PRRT). However, comprehensive (all metastatic lesions), longitudinal (temporal variation), and lesion-level measured features have never been explored. Such features allow for capturing the heterogeneity in disease response to treatment. Furthermore, models combining these features are lacking. In this work we evaluated the predictive power of comprehensive, longitudinal, lesion-level 68GA-SSTR-PET features combined with a multivariate linear regression (MLR) model. METHODS: This retrospective study enrolled NET patients treated with [177Lu]Lu-DOTA-TATE and imaged with [68Ga]Ga-DOTA-TATE at baseline and post-therapy. All lesions were segmented, anatomically labeled, and longitudinally matched. Lesion-level uptake and variation in uptake were measured. Patient-level features were engineered and selected for modeling of progression-free survival (PFS). The model was validated via concordance index, patient classification (ROC analysis), and survival analysis (Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional hazards). The MLR was benchmarked against single feature predictions. RESULTS: Thirty-six NET patients were enrolled and stratified into poor and good responders (PFS ≥ 25 months). Four patient-level features were selected, the MLR concordance index was 0.826, and the AUC was 0.88 (0.85 specificity, 0.81 sensitivity). Survival analysis led to significant patient stratification (p<.001) and hazard ratio (3⨯10-5). Lastly, in a benchmark study, the MLR modeling approach outperformed all the single feature predictors. CONCLUSION: Comprehensive, lesion-level, longitudinal 68GA-SSTR-PET analysis, combined with MLR modeling, leads to excellent predictions of PRRT outcome in NET patients, outperforming non-comprehensive, patient-level, and single time-point feature predictions. MESSAGE: Neuroendocrine tumor, peptide receptor radionuclide therapy, Somatostatin Receptor Imaging, Outcome Prediction, Treatment Response Assessment.

Identification of FOXP1 as a favorable prognostic biomarker and tumor suppressor in intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma.

BACKGROUND: Forkhead-box protein P1 (FOXP1) has been proposed to have both oncogenic and tumor-suppressive properties, depending on tumor heterogeneity. However, the role of FOXP1 in intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) has not been previously reported. METHODS: Immunohistochemistry was performed to detect FOXP1 expression in ICC and normal liver tissues. The relationship between FOXP1 levels and the clinicopathological characteristics of patients with ICC was evaluated. Finally, in vitro and in vivo experiments were conducted to examine the regulatory role of FOXP1 in ICC cells. RESULTS: FOXP1 was significantly downregulated in the ICC compared to their peritumoral tissues (p < 0.01). The positive rates of FOXP1 were significantly lower in patients with poor differentiation, lymph node metastasis, invasion into surrounding organs, and advanced stages (p < 0.05). Notably, patients with FOXP1 positivity had better outcomes (overall survival) than those with FOXP1 negativity (p < 0.05), as revealed by Kaplan-Meier survival analysis. Moreover, Cox multivariate analysis showed that negative FOXP1 expression, advanced TNM stages, invasion, and lymph node metastasis were independent prognostic risk factors in patients with ICC. Lastly, overexpression of FOXP1 inhibited the proliferation, migration, and invasion of ICC cells and promoted apoptosis, whereas knockdown of FOXP1 had the opposite role. CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest that FOXP1 may serve as a novel outcome predictor for ICC as well as a tumor suppressor that may contribute to cancer treatment.

Racial and ethnic disparities in the natural history of alcohol-associated liver disease in the United States.

BACKGROUND: Outcomes in alcohol-associated liver disease (ALD) are influenced by several race and ethnic factors, yet its natural history across the continuum of patients in different stages of the disease is unknown. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of U.S. adults from 2011 to 2018, using three nationally representative databases to examine potential disparities in relevant outcomes among racial and ethnic groups. Our analysis included logistic and linear regressions, along with competing risk analysis. RESULTS: Black individuals had the highest daily alcohol consumption (12.6 g/day) while Hispanic participants had the largest prevalence of heavy episodic drinking (33.5%). In a multivariable-adjusted model, Hispanic and Asian participants were independently associated with a higher ALD prevalence compared to Non-Hispanic White interviewees (OR: 1.4, 95% CI: 1.1-1.8 and OR: 1.5 95% CI:1.1-2.0, respectively), while Blacks participants had a lower ALD prevalence (OR: .7 95% CI: .6-.9), and a lower risk of mortality during hospitalization due to ALD (OR: .83 95% CI: .73-.94). Finally, a multivariate competing-risk analysis showed that Hispanic ethnicity had a decreased probability of liver transplantation if waitlisted for ALD (SHR: .7, 95% CI: .6-.8) along with female Asian population (HR: .40, 95% CI: .26-.62). CONCLUSIONS: After accounting for key social and biological health determinants, the Hispanic population showed an increased risk of ALD prevalence, even with lower alcohol consumption. Additionally, Hispanic and Asian female patients had reduced access to liver transplantation compared to other enlisted patients.

Multimorbidity prevalence and health outcome prediction: assessing the impact of lookback periods, disease count, and definition criteria in health administrative data at the population-based level.

BACKGROUND: Health administrative databases play a crucial role in population-level multimorbidity surveillance. Determining the appropriate retrospective or lookback period (LP) for observing prevalent and newly diagnosed diseases in administrative data presents challenge in estimating multimorbidity prevalence and predicting health outcome. The aim of this population-based study was to assess the impact of LP on multimorbidity prevalence and health outcomes prediction across three multimorbidity definitions, three lists of diseases used for multimorbidity assessment, and six health outcomes. METHODS: We conducted a population-based study including all individuals ages > 65 years on April 1st, 2019, in Québec, Canada. We considered three lists of diseases labeled according to the number of chronic conditions it considered: (1) L60 included 60 chronic conditions from the International Classification of Diseases (ICD); (2) L20 included a core of 20 chronic conditions; and (3) L31 included 31 chronic conditions from the Charlson and Elixhauser indices. For each list, we: (1) measured multimorbidity prevalence for three multimorbidity definitions (at least two [MM2+], three [MM3+] or four (MM4+) chronic conditions); and (2) evaluated capacity (c-statistic) to predict 1-year outcomes (mortality, hospitalisation, polypharmacy, and general practitioner, specialist, or emergency department visits) using LPs ranging from 1 to 20 years. RESULTS: Increase in multimorbidity prevalence decelerated after 5-10 years (e.g., MM2+, L31: LP = 1y: 14%, LP = 10y: 58%, LP = 20y: 69%). Within the 5-10 years LP range, predictive performance was better for L20 than L60 (e.g., LP = 7y, mortality, MM3+: L20 [0.798;95%CI:0.797-0.800] vs. L60 [0.779; 95%CI:0.777-0.781]) and typically better for MM3 + and MM4 + definitions (e.g., LP = 7y, mortality, L60: MM4+ [0.788;95%CI:0.786-0.790] vs. MM2+ [0.768;95%CI:0.766-0.770]). CONCLUSIONS: In our databases, ten years of data was required for stable estimation of multimorbidity prevalence. Within that range, the L20 and multimorbidity definitions MM3 + or MM4 + reached maximal predictive performance.

Providing clinical context to the spatio-temporal analysis of 4D CT perfusion to predict acute ischemic stroke lesion outcomes.

Acute ischemic stroke is a leading cause of mortality and morbidity worldwide. Timely identification of the extent of a stroke is crucial for effective treatment, whereas spatio-temporal (4D) Computed Tomography Perfusion (CTP) imaging is playing a critical role in this process. Recently, the first deep learning-based methods that leverage the full spatio-temporal nature of perfusion imaging for predicting stroke lesion outcomes have been proposed. However, clinical information is typically not integrated into the learning process, which may be helpful to improve the tissue outcome prediction given the known influence of various factors (i.e., physiological, demographic, and treatment factors) on lesion growth. Cross-attention, a multimodal fusion strategy, has been successfully used to combine information from multiple sources, but it has yet to be applied to stroke lesion outcome prediction. Therefore, this work aimed to develop and evaluate a novel multimodal and spatio-temporal deep learning model that utilizes cross-attention to combine information from 4D CTP and clinical metadata simultaneously to predict stroke lesion outcomes. The proposed model was evaluated using a dataset of 70 acute ischemic stroke patients, demonstrating significantly improved volume estimates (mean error = 19 ml) compared to a baseline unimodal approach (mean error = 35 ml, p< 0.05). The proposed model allows generating attention maps and counterfactual outcome scenarios to investigate the relevance of clinical variables in predicting stroke lesion outcomes at a patient level, helping to provide a better understanding of the model's decision-making process.

A novel score for predicting 1-year mortality of intensive care patients.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to develop a simple scoring table for predicting probability of death within 1-year after admission to an intensive care unit. We analysed data on emergency admissions from the nationwide Finnish intensive care quality registry. METHODS: We included first admissions of adult patients with data available on 1-year vital status (dead or alive) and all five variables included in a premorbid functional status score, which is the number of activities the person can manage independently of the following five: get out of bed, move indoors, dress, climb stairs and walk 400 m. We analysed data on patient characteristics and admission-associated factors from 2012 to 2014 to find predictors of 1-year mortality and to develop a score for predicting probability of death. We tested the performance of this score in data from 2015. We assessed the 1-year functional status score of survivors with data available. RESULTS: Out of 25,261 patients, 20,628 (81.7%) patients were able to perform all five functional activities independently prior to the intensive care unit admission. At 1-year post admission, 19,625 (77.7%) patients were alive. 1-year functional status score was known for 11,011 patients and 8970 (81.5%) patients achieved functional status score 5, managing all five activities independently. The score based on age, sex, preceding functional status, type of intensive care unit admission, severity of acute illness and the most significant diagnoses predicted 1-year mortality with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve 0.78 (95% CI, 0.76-0.79). The calibration of our prediction model was good, with calibration intercept -0.01 (-0.07 to 0.05) and calibration slope 0.96 (0.90 to 1.02). CONCLUSION: Our score based on data available at intensive care unit admission predicted 1-year mortality with fairly good discrimination. Most survivors achieved good functional recovery.

Prediction of 30-day in-hospital mortality in older UGIB patients using a simplified risk score and comparison with AIMS65 score.

BACKGROUND: Upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) in older patients is associated with substantial in-hospital morbidity and mortality. This study aimed to develop and validate a simplified risk score for predicting 30-day in-hospital mortality in this population. METHODS: A retrospective analysis was conducted on data from 1899 UGIB patients aged ≥ 65 years admitted to a single medical center between January 2010 and December 2019. An additional cohort of 330 patients admitted from January 2020 to October 2021 was used for external validation. Variable selection was performed using five distinct methods, and models were generated using generalized linear models, random forest, support vector machine, and k-nearest neighbors approaches. The developed score, "ABCAP," incorporated Albumin < 30 g/L, Blood Urea Nitrogen (BUN) > 7.5 mmol/L, Cancer presence, Altered mental status, and Pulse rate > 100/min, each assigned a score of 1. Internal and external validation procedures compared the ABCAP score with the AIMS65 score. RESULTS: In internal validation, the ABCAP score demonstrated robust predictive capability with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.878 (95% CI: 0.824-0.932), which was significantly better than the AIMS65 score (AUC: 0.827, 95% CI: 0.751-0.904), as revealed by the DeLong test (p = 0.048). External validation of the ABCAP score resulted in an AUC of 0.799 (95% CI: 0.709-0.889), while the AIMS65 score yielded an AUC of 0.743 (95% CI: 0.647-0.838), with no significant difference between the two scores based on the DeLong test (p = 0.16). However, the ABCAP score at the 3-5 score level demonstrated superior performance in identifying high-risk patients compared to the AIMS65 score. This score exhibited consistent predictive accuracy across variceal and non-variceal UGIB subgroups. CONCLUSIONS: The ABCAP score incorporates easily obtained clinical variables and demonstrates promising predictive ability for 30-day in-hospital mortality in older UGIB patients. It allows effective mortality risk stratification and showed slightly better performance than the AIMS65 score. Further cohort validation is required to confirm generalizability.

Machine learning applications in craniosynostosis diagnosis and treatment prediction: a systematic review.

Craniosynostosis refers to the premature fusion of one or more of the fibrous cranial sutures connecting the bones of the skull. Machine learning (ML) is an emerging technology and its application to craniosynostosis detection and management is underexplored. This systematic review aims to evaluate the application of ML techniques in the diagnosis, severity assessment, and predictive modeling of craniosynostosis. A comprehensive search was conducted on the PubMed and Google Scholar databases using predefined keywords related to craniosynostosis and ML. Inclusion criteria encompassed peer-reviewed studies in English that investigated ML algorithms in craniosynostosis diagnosis, severity assessment, or treatment outcome prediction. Three independent reviewers screened the search results, performed full-text assessments, and extracted data from selected studies using a standardized form. Thirteen studies met the inclusion criteria and were included in the review. Of the thirteen papers examined on the application of ML to the identification and treatment of craniosynostosis, two papers were dedicated to sagittal craniosynostosis, five papers utilized several different types of craniosynostosis in the training and testing of their ML models, and six papers were dedicated to metopic craniosynostosis. ML models demonstrated high accuracy in identifying different types of craniosynostosis and objectively quantifying severity using innovative metrics such as metopic severity score and cranial morphology deviation. The findings highlight the significant strides made in utilizing ML techniques for craniosynostosis diagnosis, severity assessment, and predictive modeling. Predictive modeling of treatment outcomes following surgical interventions showed promising results, aiding in personalized treatment strategies. Despite methodological diversities among studies, the collective evidence underscores ML's transformative potential in revolutionizing craniosynostosis management.

Multicenter external validation of prediction models for clinical outcomes after spinal fusion for lumbar degenerative disease.

BACKGROUND: Clinical prediction models (CPM), such as the SCOAP-CERTAIN tool, can be utilized to enhance decision-making for lumbar spinal fusion surgery by providing quantitative estimates of outcomes, aiding surgeons in assessing potential benefits and risks for each individual patient. External validation is crucial in CPM to assess generalizability beyond the initial dataset. This ensures performance in diverse populations, reliability and real-world applicability of the results. Therefore, we externally validated the tool for predictability of improvement in oswestry disability index (ODI), back and leg pain (BP, LP). METHODS: Prospective and retrospective data from multicenter registry was obtained. As outcome measure minimum clinically important change was chosen for ODI with ≥ 15-point and ≥ 2-point reduction for numeric rating scales (NRS) for BP and LP 12 months after lumbar fusion for degenerative disease. We externally validate this tool by calculating discrimination and calibration metrics such as intercept, slope, Brier Score, expected/observed ratio, Hosmer-Lemeshow (HL), AUC, sensitivity and specificity. RESULTS: We included 1115 patients, average age 60.8 ± 12.5 years. For 12-month ODI, area-under-the-curve (AUC) was 0.70, the calibration intercept and slope were 1.01 and 0.84, respectively. For NRS BP, AUC was 0.72, with calibration intercept of 0.97 and slope of 0.87. For NRS LP, AUC was 0.70, with calibration intercept of 0.04 and slope of 0.72. Sensitivity ranged from 0.63 to 0.96, while specificity ranged from 0.15 to 0.68. Lack of fit was found for all three models based on HL testing. CONCLUSIONS: Utilizing data from a multinational registry, we externally validate the SCOAP-CERTAIN prediction tool. The model demonstrated fair discrimination and calibration of predicted probabilities, necessitating caution in applying it in clinical practice. We suggest that future CPMs focus on predicting longer-term prognosis for this patient population, emphasizing the significance of robust calibration and thorough reporting.