Clinical predictors of pulmonary embolism for inpatients: are computed tomography pulmonary angiograms being requested appropriately?

BACKGROUND: The heterogeneity of inpatient pulmonary embolism (PE) presentations may lead to computed tomography pulmonary angiograms (CTPA) being over-requested. Current clinical predictors for PE, including Wells criteria and Pulmonary Embolism Rule-out Criteria (PERC), have predominantly focussed on outpatient and emergency department populations. AIM: To determine the clinical indicators for ordering inpatient CTPA and the predictors of positive scans for PE. METHODS: Consecutive inpatient CTPA (performed >24 h after admission) from January 2017 to December 2017 were retrospectively reviewed. Variables including baseline characteristics, vital signs and risk factors for PE were extracted. RESULTS: A total of 312 CTPA was reviewed (average patient age 67 years; 46% male) and 36 CTPA were positive for PE (11.5%). The average time to inpatient CTPA request was 7 days. Clinical indicators associated with positive scans were hypoxia (odds ratio (OR) 2.4; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.1-5.6), tachypnoea (OR 2.5; 95% CI 1.2-6.0), recent surgery or immobilisation (OR 2.7; 95% CI 1.2-6.4), S1Q3T3 pattern on electrocardiogram (ECG; OR 7.2; 95% CI 1.4-35.7) and right bundle branch block pattern on ECG (OR 4.7; 95% CI 1.6-13.1). Hypotension, fever and malignancy were not significant. Both PERC and Wells criteria had poor positive predictive value (12% and 27% respectively), but the negative predictive value for PERC and Wells was 100% and 95.8% respectively. CONCLUSION: Inpatient CTPA appear to be over-requested and can potentially be rationalised based on a combination of clinical predictors and Wells criteria and/or PERC rule. Further prospective studies are needed to develop accurate clinical decision tools targeted towards inpatients.

Comparing 'clinical hunch' against clinical decision support systems (PERC rule, wells score, revised Geneva score and YEARS criteria) in the diagnosis of acute pulmonary embolism.

BACKGROUND: Pulmonary embolism (PE) is a common and potentially life-threatening condition. Since it is considered a 'do not miss' diagnosis, PE tends to be over-investigated beyond the evidence-based clinical decision support systems (CDSS), which in turn subjects patients to unnecessary radiation and contrast agent exposure with no apparent benefits in terms of outcome. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the yield of 'clinical hunch' (gestalt) and four CDSS: the PERC Rule, Wells score, revised Geneva score, and Years criteria. METHODS: A review was conducted on the Electronic Medical Records (EMR) of 1566 patients from the Emergency Department at a tertiary teaching hospital who underwent CTPA from the 1st of January 2018 to the 31st of December 2019. The scores for the four CDSS were calculated retrospectively from the EMR data. We considered that a CTPA had been ordered on a clinical hunch when there was no mention of CDSS in the EMR, and no D-dimer test. A bypass of CDSS was confirmed when any step of the diagnostic algorithms was not followed. RESULTS: Of the total 1566 patients who underwent CTPA, 265 (17%) were positive for PE. The diagnosis yield from the five decision groups (clinical hunch and four CDSS) was as follows-clinical hunch, 15%; PERC rule, 18% (6% when bypassed); Wells score, 19% (11% when bypassed); revised Geneva score, 26% (13% when bypassed); and YEARS criteria, 18% (6% when bypassed). CONCLUSION: Clinicians should trust the evidence-based clinical decision support systems in line with the international guidelines to diagnose PE.

Use of a three-tiered clinical decision rule to quantify unnecessary radiological investigation of suspected pulmonary embolism.

BACKGROUND: Clinical decision rules for suspected pulmonary embolism are proposed to identify patients suitable for discharge without radiological investigation. Their use varies between institutions. AIMS: To quantify unnecessary radiological investigations for suspected pulmonary embolism (PE) as defined by a newly proposed three-tiered clinical decision rule incorporating the revised Geneva score, Pulmonary Embolism Rule-Out Criteria and D-dimer. To quantify missed diagnosis of PE if the proposed clinical decision rule were followed. METHODS: A retrospective audit was conducted; applying the proposed clinical decision rule to 584 emergency department (ED)-based encounters at the Royal Adelaide Hospital from May to November 2015. Encounters were confined to emergency presentations where suspected acute PE was investigated with computed tomography pulmonary angiography or ventilation-perfusion scanning; inpatient and follow-up studies were excluded. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value of the proposed clinical decision rule within the studied population were calculated. RESULTS: Data were obtained for 584 patient encounters where suspected PE was investigated radiologically. Applied retrospectively, the proposed clinical decision rule had a negative predictive value of 97.7% and a sensitivity of 98.5% for radiologically proven PE; 9.2% of scans could have been avoided. One case of PE would have been missed; a false-negative rate of 1.5%. CONCLUSION: Retrospective application of the proposed clinical decision rule to the studied cohort indicates at least 9% of radiological investigations were unnecessary. A prospective study is needed to assess the safety and cost-effectiveness of applying such a pathway to all patients presenting to ED with suspected PE.

Diagnostic Strategies in Pulmonary Embolism.

Key to the diagnosis of pulmonary embolism (PE) is a careful bedside evaluation. After this, there are three further diagnostic steps. In all patients, estimation of the clinical probability of PE is performed. The other two steps are measurement of D-dimer when indicated and chest imaging when indicated. The clinical probability of PE is estimated at low, moderate, or high. The prevalence of PE is less than 15% among patients with low clinical probability, 15 to 40% with moderate clinical probability, and >40% in patients with high clinical probability. Clinical gestalt has been found to be very useful in estimating probability of PE. However, clinical prediction rules, such as Wells criteria, the modified Geneva score, and the PE rule out criteria have been advocated as adjuncts. In patients with high clinical probability, the high prevalence of PE can lower the D-dimer negative predictive value, which could increase the risk of diagnostic failure. Consequently, patients with high probability for PE need to proceed directly to chest imaging, without prior measurement of D-dimer level. Key studies in determining which low to moderate probability patients require chest imaging are the Age-adjusted D-dimer cutoff levels to rule out pulmonary embolism (ADJUST-PE), the Simplified diagnostic management of suspected pulmonary embolism (YEARS), and the Pulmonary Embolism Graduated D-Dimer trials. In patients with low clinical probability, PE can be excluded without imaging studies if D-dimer is less than 1,000 ng/mL. In patients in whom there is not a low likelihood for PE, this can be excluded without imaging studies if the D-dimer is below the age-adjusted threshold.