Patterns of bird migration phenology in South Africa suggest northern hemisphere climate as the most consistent driver of change.

Current knowledge of phenological shifts in Palearctic bird migration is largely based on data collected on migrants at their breeding grounds; little is known about the phenology of these birds at their nonbreeding grounds, and even less about that of intra-African migrants. Because climate change patterns are not uniform across the globe, we can expect regional disparities in bird phenological responses. It is also likely that they vary across species, as species show differences in the strength of affinities they have with particular habitats and environments. Here, we examine the arrival and departure of nine Palearctic and seven intra-African migratory species in the central Highveld of South Africa, where the former spend their nonbreeding season and the latter their breeding season. Using novel analytical methods based on bird atlas data, we show phenological shifts in migration of five species - red-backed shrike, spotted flycatcher, common sandpiper, white-winged tern (Palearctic migrants), and diederik cuckoo (intra-African migrant) - between two atlas periods: 1987-1991 and 2007-2012. During this time period, Palearctic migrants advanced their departure from their South African nonbreeding grounds. This trend was mainly driven by waterbirds. No consistent changes were observed for intra-African migrants. Our results suggest that the most consistent drivers of migration phenological shifts act in the northern hemisphere, probably at the breeding grounds.

Palearctic passerine migrant declines in African wintering grounds in the Anthropocene (1970-1990 and near future): A conservation assessment using publicly available GIS predictors and machine learning.

The Anthropocene causes many massive and novel impacts, e.g., on migratory birds and their habitats. Many species of migratory birds have been declining on the Palearctic-African flyway in recent decades. To investigate possible impacts on a continental scale, we used 18 predictors extracted from 16 publicly available GIS layers in combination with machine learning methods on the sub-Saharan distributions of 64 passerine migrant species. These bird species were categorized as having experienced a 'Large Decline' (n = 12), a 'Moderate Decline' (n = 6) or 'No Decline' (n = 46) based on European census data from 1970 to 1990. Therefore, we present the first study for these species which uses publically available Open Access GIS-data and a multivariate (n = 18) and multi-species (n = 64) machine learning approach to deduce possible past impacts. We furthermore modelled likely future human population change and climate change impacts. We identified three predictor themes related to the distributions and declines of these migratory birds: (I) locations, represented by African ecosystems, countries, and soil types; (II) human population pressures and land-use intensities, the latter represented by land-use categories, habitat area, and cropland proportion; and (III) climatic predictors. This is the first study to relate migratory bird declines to human population pressures and land-use intensities using this type of analysis. We also identified areas of conservation concern, such as the Sahel region. Our models also predict that the declining trends of migratory birds will continue into the foreseeable future across much of Africa. We then briefly discuss some wider conservation implications in the light of the increasing drivers of biodiversity change associated with the Anthropocene as well as some possible solutions. We argue that only comprehensive systemic change can mitigate the impacts on the migratory birds and their habitats.

Spatial behavior and habitat use in widely separated breeding and wintering distributions across three species of long-distance migrant Phylloscopus warblers.

AIM: To investigate the ecological relationship between breeding and wintering in specialist and generalist long-distance migratory species, and the links between densities and range sizes. LOCATION: Denmark, Senegal and Ghana. METHODS: We use radio tracking to study spatial behavior and habitat use in three morphologically and ecologically similar and closely related Phylloscopus species on their widely separated breeding and wintering distributions. During wintering and breeding, willow warblers P. trochilus (winter: n = 9, breeding: n = 13), chiffchaffs P. collybita (n = 11, n = 7), and wood warblers P. sibilatrix (n = 17, n = 14) were tracked. RESULTS: Willow warblers P. trochilus increased home range sizes in winter, whereas it was similar in chiffchaffs P. collybita and wood warblers P. sibilatrix, in both seasons. Home ranges overlapped more in winter than in the breeding season. In winter, home range overlap was similar among species but larger overlap during breeding was indicated for willow warblers. Tree cover was unrelated to home range size but significantly higher in breeding than in winter in all species. However, whereas willow warblers and wood warblers maintained some degree of tall tree cover inside their home ranges in winter, chiffchaffs changed from more than 80% to <1% tree cover, indicating a niche shift. MAIN CONCLUSIONS: Individuals of all three species showed changes between breeding and wintering areas in spatial behavior and habitat availability, with larger overlap in winter. The differences in patterns were potentially related to being generalist (willow warbler) or specialist (chiffchaff and wood warbler). These ecological relationships are important for the conservation of migrants and for understanding the link between breeding and wintering distributions and ecology.