Minimal representations of possibility at age 3.

Young children do not always consider alternative possibilities when planning. Suppose a prize is hidden in a single occluded container and another prize is hidden in an occluded pair. If given a chance to choose one container and receive its contents, choosing the singleton maximizes expected reward because each member of the pair might be empty. Yet, 3-y-olds choose a member of the pair almost half the time. Why don't they maximize expected reward? Three studies provide evidence that 3-y-olds do not deploy possibility concepts like MIGHT, which would let them represent that each container in the pair might and might not contain a prize. Rather, they build an overly specific model of the situation that correctly specifies that the singleton holds a prize while inappropriately specifying which member of the pair holds a prize and which is empty. So, when asked to choose a container, they see two equally good options. This predicts approximately 50% choice of the singleton, observed in studies 1 and 3. But when asked to throw away a container so that they can receive the remaining contents (study 2), they mostly throw away a member of the pair. The full pattern of data is expected if children construct overly specific models. We discuss whether 3-year-olds lack possibility concepts or whether performance demands prevent deployment of them in our tasks.

Chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes) recognize that their guesses could be wrong and can pass a two-cup disjunctive syllogism task.

When chimpanzees search for hidden food, do they realize that their guesses may not be correct? We applied a post-decision wagering paradigm to a simple two-cup search task, varying whether we gave participants visual access to the baiting and then asking after they had chosen one of the cups whether they would prefer a smaller but certain reward instead of their original choice (experiment 1). Results showed that chimpanzees were more likely to accept the smaller reward in occluded than visible conditions. Experiment 2 found the same effect when we blocked visual access but manipulated the number of hiding locations for the food piece, showing that the effect is not owing to representation type. Experiments 3 and 4 showed that when given information about the contents of the unchosen cup, chimpanzees were able to flexibly update their choice behaviour accordingly. These results suggest that language is not a pre-requisite to solving the disjunctive syllogism and provides a valuable contribution to the debate on logical reasoning in non-human animals.

Many preschoolers do not distinguish the possible from the impossible in a marble-catching task.

Do preschoolers differentiate events that might and might not happen from events that cannot happen? The current study modified Redshaw & Suddendorf's "Y-shaped tube task" to test how the ability to distinguish mere possibilities from impossibilities emerges over ontogenesis. In the Y-shaped tube task, the experimenter holds a ball above a tube shaped like an upside-down "Y" and asks a participant to catch it. A participant who identifies the two possible paths the ball can take should cover both exits at the bottom of the Y. But children might cover both exits without identifying both possibilities. For example, there are two good places to put hands, so they might just put one hand in each place. This does not require checking whether there is a path from the entrance to each exit. If children cover both exits because they have identified two possible paths for the ball, then they should differentiate exits where it is possible for the ball to come out from impossible exits, where there is no path from the entrance to the exit. In total, 24 36-month-olds and 24 48-month-olds were tested. Less than 20% of 36-month-olds and only about half of 48-month-olds distinguished between possible and impossible exits. Children who do not distinguish the possible from the impossible might not be evaluating possibilities at all. Results converge with existing literature suggesting that action planning that is sensitive to incompatible possibilities often emerges after the fourth birthday.

PVS-GEN: Systematic Approach for Universal Synthetic Data Generation Involving Parameterization, Verification, and Segmentation.

Synthetic data generation addresses the challenges of obtaining extensive empirical datasets, offering benefits such as cost-effectiveness, time efficiency, and robust model development. Nonetheless, synthetic data-generation methodologies still encounter significant difficulties, including a lack of standardized metrics for modeling different data types and comparing generated results. This study introduces PVS-GEN, an automated, general-purpose process for synthetic data generation and verification. The PVS-GEN method parameterizes time-series data with minimal human intervention and verifies model construction using a specific metric derived from extracted parameters. For complex data, the process iteratively segments the empirical dataset until an extracted parameter can reproduce synthetic data that reflects the empirical characteristics, irrespective of the sensor data type. Moreover, we introduce the PoR metric to quantify the quality of the generated data by evaluating its time-series characteristics. Consequently, the proposed method can automatically generate diverse time-series data that covers a wide range of sensor types. We compared PVS-GEN with existing synthetic data-generation methodologies, and PVS-GEN demonstrated a superior performance. It generated data with a similarity of up to 37.1% across multiple data types and by 19.6% on average using the proposed metric, irrespective of the data type.

A Possibilistic Formulation of Autonomous Search for Targets.

Autonomous search is an ongoing cycle of sensing, statistical estimation, and motion control with the objective to find and localise targets in a designated search area. Traditionally, the theoretical framework for autonomous search combines sequential Bayesian estimation with information theoretic motion control. This paper formulates autonomous search in the framework of possibility theory. Although the possibilistic formulation is slightly more involved than the traditional method, it provides a means for quantitative modelling and reasoning in the presence of epistemic uncertainty. This feature is demonstrated in the paper in the context of partially known probability of detection, expressed as an interval value. The paper presents an elegant Bayes-like solution to sequential estimation, with the reward function for motion control defined to take into account the epistemic uncertainty. The advantages of the proposed search algorithm are demonstrated by numerical simulations.

Don't you see the possibilities? Young preschoolers may lack possibility concepts.

Preschoolers struggle to solve problems when they have to consider what might and might not happen. Instead of planning for all open possibilities, they simulate one possibility and treat it as the fact of the matter. Why? Are scientists asking them to solve problems that outstrip their executive capacity? Or do children lack the logical concepts needed to take multiple conflicting possibilities into account? To address this question, task demands were eliminated from an existing measure of children's ability to think about mere possibilities. One hundred nineteen 2.5- to 4.9-year-olds were tested. Participants were highly motivated but could not solve the problem. Bayesian analysis revealed strong evidence that reducing task demands while holding reasoning demands constant did not change performance. Children's struggles with the task cannot be explained by these task demands. Results are consistent with the hypothesis that children struggle because they cannot deploy possibility concepts that allow them to mark representations as merely possible. RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS: Preschoolers are surprisingly irrational when faced with problems that ask them to consider what might and might not be the case. These irrationalities could arise from deficits in children's logical reasoning capacities or from extraneous task demands. This paper describes three plausible task demands. A new measure is introduced that preserves logical reasoning demands while eliminating all three extraneous task demands. Eliminating these task demands does not change performance. These task demands are not likely a cause of children's irrational behavior.

The Impact of Parent-Adolescent Communication on Reduction of Sexual Risk Possibility Among Adolescents: Findings from the Suubi-Maka Study.

Sexual risky behaviors among adolescents and young people remain a major public health problem worldwide. This study examined the impact of parent-adolescent communication on adolescents' possibility to engage in risky behaviors. The study used baseline data from the Suubi-Maka Study (2008-2012) implemented in 10 primary schools in Southern Uganda. Binary logistic regression models were conducted to determine the association between parent-adolescent communication and sexual risk possibility. Results indicate that gender [OR 0.220, 95% CI 0.107, 0.455], age [OR 1.891, 95% CI 1.030, 3.471], household size [OR 0.661, 95% CI 0.479, 0.913], and comfort level of family communication [OR 0.944, 95% CI 0.899, 0.990] were significantly associated with lower levels of sexual risk possibility among adolescents. There is a need to build interventions that make it easy and comfortable for adolescents to have open discussion and communication with parents on sexual risk possibility, risky behaviors, and risky situations.

Miraculous, magical, or mundane? The development of beliefs about stories with divine, magical, or realistic causation.

Children's naïve theories about causal regularities enable them to differentiate factual narratives describing real events and characters from fictional narratives describing made-up events and characters (Corriveau, Kim, Schwalen, & Harris, Cognition 113 (2): 213-225, 2009). But what happens when children are consistently presented with accounts of miraculous and causally impossible events as real occurrences? Previous research has shown that preschoolers with consistent exposure to religious teaching tend to systematically judge characters involved in fantastical or religious events as real (Corriveau et al., Cognitive Science, 39 (2), 353-382, 2015; Davoodi et al., Developmental Psychology, 52 (2), 221, 2016). In the current study, we extended this line of work by asking about the scope of the impact of religious exposure on children's reality judgments. Specifically, we asked whether this effect is  domain-general or domain-specific. We tested children in Iran, where regular exposure to uniform religious beliefs might influence children's reasoning about possibility in non-religious domains, in addition to the domain of religion. Children with no or minimal schooling (5- to 6-year-olds) and older elementary school students (9- to 10-year-olds) judged the reality status of different kinds of stories, notably realistic, unusual (but nonetheless realistic), religious, and magical stories. We found that while younger children were not systematic in their judgments, older children often judged religious stories as real but rarely judged magical stories as real. This developmental pattern suggests that the impact of religious exposure on children's reality judgments does not extend beyond their reasoning about divine intervention. Children's justifications for their reality judgments provided further support for this domain-specific influence of religious teaching.

Land Cover Classification Based on Airborne Lidar Point Cloud with Possibility Method and Multi-Classifier.

As important geospatial data, point cloud collected from an aerial laser scanner (ALS) provides three-dimensional (3D) information for the study of the distribution of typical urban land cover, which is critical in the construction of a "digital city". However, existing point cloud classification methods usually use a single machine learning classifier that experiences uncertainty in making decisions for fuzzy samples in confusing areas. This limits the improvement of classification accuracy. To take full advantage of different classifiers and reduce uncertainty, we propose a classification method based on possibility theory and multi-classifier fusion. Firstly, the feature importance measure was performed by the XGBoost algorithm to construct a feature space, and two commonly used support vector machines (SVMs) were the chosen base classifiers. Then, classification results from the two base classifiers were quantitatively evaluated to define the confusing areas in classification. Finally, the confidence degree of each classifier for different categories was calculated by the confusion matrix and normalized to obtain the weights. Then, we synthesize different classifiers based on possibility theory to achieve more accurate classification in the confusion areas. DALES datasets were utilized to assess the proposed method. The results reveal that the proposed method can significantly improve classification accuracy in confusing areas.

Telling a different story: Historiography, ethics, and possibility for nursing.

With this paper, I will interrogate some of the implications of nursing's dominant historiography, the history written by and about nursing, and its implications for nursing ethics as a praxis, invoking feminist philosopher Donna Haraway's mantra that 'it matters what stories make worlds, what worlds make stories.' First, I will describe what I have come to understand as the nursing imaginary, a shared consciousness constructed both by nurses from within and by those outside the discipline from without. This imaginary is fashioned in part by the histories nursing produces about the discipline, our historical ontology, which is demonstrative of our disciplinary values and the ethics we practice today. I assert that how we choose to constitute ourselves as a discipline is itself an ethical endeavour, bound up with how we choose to be and what we allow as knowledge in nursing. To animate this discussion, I will outline the received historiography of nursing and dwell in the possibilities of thinking about Kaiserswerth, the training school that prepared Nightingale for her exploits in Crimea and beyond. I will briefly consider the normative values that arise from this received history and consider the possibilities that these normative values foreclose upon. I then shift the frame and ask what might be possible if we centred Kaiserswerth's contested legacy as a training school for formerly incarcerated women, letting go of the sanitary and sanitised visions of nursing as Victorian angels in the hospital. Much energy over the past 250 years has been invested in the professionalisation and legitimation of nursing, predicated (at least in our shared imaginary) on the interventions of Florence Nightingale, but this is one possibility of many. I conclude with a speculative dream of the terrain opens up for nursing if we shed this politics and ethos of respectability and professionalism and instead embrace community, abolition and mutual aid as organising values for the discipline.

An Innovative Possibilistic Fingerprint Quality Assessment (PFQA) Filter to Improve the Recognition Rate of a Level-2 AFIS.

In this paper, we propose an innovative approach to improve the performance of an Automatic Fingerprint Identification System (AFIS). The method is based on the design of a Possibilistic Fingerprint Quality Assessment (PFQA) filter where ground truths of fingerprint images of effective and ineffective quality are built by learning. The first approach, QS_I, is based on the AFIS decision for the image without considering its paired image to decide its effectiveness or ineffectiveness. The second approach, QS_PI, is based on the AFIS decision when considering the pair (effective image, ineffective image). The two ground truths (effective/ineffective) are used to design the PFQA filter. PFQA discards the images for which the AFIS does not generate a correct decision. The proposed intervention does not affect how the AFIS works but ensures a selection of the input images, recognizing the most suitable ones to reach the AFIS's highest recognition rate (RR). The performance of PFQA is evaluated on two experimental databases using two conventional AFIS, and a comparison is made with four current fingerprint image quality assessment (IQA) methods. The results show that an AFIS using PFQA can improve its RR by roughly 10% over an AFIS not using an IQA method. However, compared to other fingerprint IQA methods using the same AFIS, the RR improvement is more modest, in a 5-6% range.

Fuzzy Portfolio Selection Using Stochastic Correlation.

Here we have proposed fuzzy portfolio selection model using stochastic correlation (FPSMSC) to overcome limitations both in fuzzy and stochastic world. The newly proposed model not only gets harmonious efficient frontier, but also considers the future movement of stock prices based on fuzzy expertise knowledge. The investment weights of the model have been optimized based on the monthly return data of 18 stocks listed in S&P500 from October 2011 to September 2015. The proposed model has provided higher returns in the whole regime of risk for the period from October 2014 to September 2015, whose monthly return data are used as training data than other available portfolio selection models, i.e., fuzzy portfolio selection models with credibility and possibility and statistic model. Also, the present model has shown the better smoothness of the variations of returns with respect to risk aversion parameter, λ, from the monthly data from October 2015 to September 2016, which is not included to training database. Especially, our model is superior to other models in the regime of 0-0.3 for the risk aversion level. It is demonstrating that the FPSMSC is efficient for the investors who tend to seek the high return in portfolio management. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10614-023-10371-w.

Elevation dependency of ecosystem services supply efficiency in great lake watershed.

Although it is well acknowledged that the improvement of ecosystem services is conducive to human well-being, there is still a lack of approach to determining reasonable improvement goals, especially for ecosystem services with trade-off relationship. Based on the method of production possibility frontier (PPF), this study presented a novel approach to identifying the improvement goals of interacting ecosystem services with considering their context dependency. By calculating the gap between the current supply of ecosystem services and the reasonable improvement goal, the ecosystem services supply efficiency was defined and measured to identify the optimization potentials of ecosystem services with trade-off relationship. The results showed that the supply efficiency of ecosystem services (grain production and water purification) decreased and then increased significantly along with the increasing of farmland area ratio in the Dongting Lake Basin (DLB). Meanwhile, the inflection point appeared when the farmland area ratio was 0.16. The change of farmland area ratio was significantly influenced by the change of elevation, with the regression coefficients of elevation on the left and right sides of the inflection point being -1.28 and -0.5 respectively, which were higher than that of other factors. Along with the increasing of elevation, the ecosystem services supply efficiency decreased but increased when the elevation exceeded 721.74 m. Furthermore, the sub-watersheds with farmland area ratio below the inflection point, i.e. mainly high elevation areas, were located around national or provincial level poor counties, posing a great challenge for improving ecosystem services with trade-off relationship. Development strategies for sub-watersheds should consider the non-linear trade-offs of ecosystem services, especially the opposite stages of supply efficiency. This study highlighted the elevation dependency of ecosystem services supply efficiency through farmland area ratio in great lake watershed.

Perceiving faces through reconnection-colored glasses after social exclusion: Evidence from N100.

Social exclusion motivates individuals to selectively reconnect with others, in which face categorization plays an important role. However, it remains unknown how reconnection possibility interacts with perception at the very early stage of face categorization. To address this issue, after social exclusion or social inclusion priming, participants were instructed to select one person from two gender-matched strangers as a future "coworker" (with high reconnection possibility; the left one is a future "stranger," with low reconnection possibility) for another ostensible task, and then complete an orientation judgment task of self-face, coworker face and stranger face, with event-related brain potential (ERP) recordings. Results showed that excluded participants produced larger N100 to future coworker face than to stranger face, but no such difference was found among included participants. Compared with included participants, excluded participants produced significantly larger N100 to future coworker face. Moreover, N100 elicited by future coworker face was significantly negatively correlated with rating scores of exclusion only for social excluded participants. These findings indicate that social reconnection desire may contribute to the biased face perception which facilitates face categorization of socially excluded people.

Possibility and Time in Quantum Mechanics.

In the discourse of quantum mechanics it is usual to say that non-commuting observables cannot have definite values at the same time, or that they cannot be simultaneously measured. But, what does the term 'cannot' mean in this context? Does it stand for impossible? Should Heisenberg's principle be read in terms of uncertainty or of indeterminacy? On the other hand, whereas the debates about the nature of time in classical and relativistic mechanics have been many and varied, the question about the nature of time in quantum mechanics has not received the same attention, especially when compared to the large amount of literature on interpretive issues. The purpose of this paper is to show that, under a realist interpretation of quantum mechanics, these two matters, possibility and time, are strongly related. The final aim is to argue that, when possibility and actuality are conceived as irreducible modes of being, they are correlated to two different notions of time that can be distinguished in the quantum realm: parameter-time and event-time.

Biological constraints as norms in evolution.

Biology seems to present local and transitory regularities rather than immutable laws. To account for these historically constituted regularities and to distinguish them from mathematical invariants, Montévil and Mossio (Journal of Theoretical Biology 372:179-191, 2015) have proposed to speak of constraints. In this article we analyse the causal power of these constraints in the evolution of biodiversity, i.e., their positivity, but also the modality of their action on the directions taken by evolution. We argue that to fully account for the causal power of these constraints on evolution, they must be thought of in terms of normativity. In this way, we want to highlight two characteristics of the evolutionary constraints. The first, already emphasised as reported by Gould (The structure of evolutionary theory, Harvard University Press, 2002), is that these constraints are both produced by and producing biological evolution and that this circular causation creates true novelties. The second is that this specific causality, which generates unpredictability in evolution, stems not only from the historicity of biological constraints, but also from their internalisation through the practices of living beings.

Online education satisfaction assessment based on cloud model and fuzzy TOPSIS.

During the COVID-19, colleges organized online education on a massive scale. To make better use of online education in the post-epidemic era, this paper conducts an online education satisfaction survey with four types of colleges and 129,325 students propose a fuzzy TOPSIS (technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution) method based on the cloud model to rank the satisfaction of different colleges. Firstly, based on the characteristics of online education during the COVID-19, we build an evaluation indicator system from four dimensions: technology, instructor, learner and environment including, 10 indicators and 94 sub-indicators. Secondly, the cloud model is used to quantitatively describe the natural language and uncertainty in a large amount of assessment information. The cloud model generator is used for sub-indicators and achieves an effective and flexible conversion between linguistic information and quantitative values. The cloud model of indicators are presented by integrating the corresponding sub-indicators. The weights of indicators are determined by the entropy method based on the cloud model and possibility degree matrix, which eliminates the judgment of decision-makers and has great power for handling practical problems with unknown weight information. Finally, a fuzzy TOPSIS method based on the cloud model is proposed to rank the satisfaction of online education of different colleges. The proposed method is compared with other existing methods to shown its merits. The experimental result is consistent with the proportion of students who accept online education in the post-epidemic era. According to the second questionnaire, as the qualitative evaluation of the cloud model of indicators increases, the qualitative evaluation of satisfaction of different types of colleges will also increase. It indicates that the method proposed in this paper is practical.

Possibility and Upbuilding in the Constitution of Clinical Thinking in Psychology.

The purpose of this text is to reflect on a way of thinking which supports availability and the very atmosphere of the psychological clinic of Kierkegaardian inspiration. We will begin by elucidating what is meant by clinical thinking. It will then be necessary to clarify the meaning of two other elements that we are highlighting, possibility and upbuilding. These elements will be taken in relation to existence in its everyday concreteness, a space that always holds the possibility of transformation and of a continuous strengthening (upbuilding) in this movement. To conclude, we must return to the path we have taken in order to conjugate the disjunction that constitutes existence with our central theme, that is, the thinking that sustains the psychological clinic as a possibility of upbuilding. For Kierkegaard, there is no separation between thinking and being, which means that clinical thinking is founded on the very way the clinical relationship is established.

Possibility, relevant similarity, and structural knowledge.

Recently, interest has surged in similarity-based epistemologies of possibility. However, it has been pointed out that the notion of 'relevant similarity' is not properly developed in this literature. In this paper, I look at the research done in the field of analogical reasoning, where we find that one of the most promising ways of capturing relevance in similarity reasoning is by relying on the predictive analogy similarity relation. This takes relevant similarity to be based on shared properties that have structural relations to the property of interest. I argue that if we base our epistemology of possibility on similarity reasoning on the predictive analogy similarity relation, we require prior knowledge of the specifics of these structural relations. I discuss a number of possible responses to this on behalf of the similarity theorists given their methodological approach to the epistemology of modality more generally. They could either opt for making explicit the metaphysics underlying these structural relations, in which case they need to spell out how we can come to know these relations. Or they could opt for developing a theory that explains why we do not need to have explicit knowledge of these structural relations; for example by suggesting that we make use of epistemic shortcuts.

Laying ghosts to rest.

One of the most widely-discussed arguments against physcialism appeals to the conceivability of zombies, being which are physically or functionally identical to humans but which have no conscious experiences. Philip Goff (Philos Phenomenol Res 81(1): 119-139, 2010; Consci Cognit 21(2): 742-746, 2012a; in Sprevak M, Kallestrup J (eds) New waves in philosophy of mind. Palgrave, 2014) has recently presented a number of different anti-physicalist arguments appealing to the conceivability of ghosts, entities whose nature is exhausted by their being conscious. If ghosts are conceivable, this would rule out a priori physicalism. If the conceivability of ghosts entails that they are metaphysically possible, then this forms the basis for arguments against a posteriori physicalism. Drawing on work on conceivability by Peter Kung (Philos Phenomenol Res 81(3):620-663, 2010, Noûs 50(1): 90-120, 2016) and my own discussion of arguments which appeal to the conceivability of zombies (O'Conaill in Mihretu P Guta (ed) Consciousness and the ontology of properties. Routledge, New York, 2019), I shall argue that ghosts are conceivable, but that what allows us to conceive of them (our ability to make certain stipulations about the scenarios we conceive) undermines the belief that conceivability is a reliable guide to possibility. While this does not undermine Goff's argument against a priori phyiscalism, it suggests that a posteriori physicalists need not be haunted by ghosts.