Risk factors for relapse and long-term outcome of idiopathic retroperitoneal fibrosis.

BACKGROUND: Retroperitoneal fibrosis (RF) is a rare disease of unclear etiology characterized by the presence of fibroinflammatory tissue in the retroperitoneal space, which can entrap and obstruct retroperitoneal structures, notably the ureters. The disease responds well to steroid therapy, but tends to recur even after years. The aim of our study was to evaluate the long-term renal outcome of patients affected by idiopathic retroperitoneal fibrosis looking for predictive risk factors for recurrence of the disease and progression to end-stage renal disease. METHODS: Retrospective observational study of patients with idiopathic RF diagnosed from 2004 to 2017 and follow-up of at least 1 year after the end of first course therapy with steroid, with or without tamoxifen (TMX) and with urological procedures when applicable. RESULTS: Forty-three patients were included in the study. The follow-up was 93 ± 52 months. All the patients obtained remission after therapy that was maintained until the last observation in 26 of them. In 17 patients, there was at least one recurrence. Risk factors associated with relapse were identified and resulted in smoking habit, onset with acute kidney injury (AKI), low back pain and antinuclear antibodies (ANA) positivity. Renal function remained fairly stable during the long-term follow-up. The renal end-point (doubling of serum creatinine or ESRD) occurred in 8% of the patients; however, eGFR in patients with relapse was similar to that of non-recurrent at the diagnoses, but it decreased over time more in the relapsing than in non-relapsing patients (p group = 0.20; p time = 0.001; p time × group interactions = 0.04). Based on these 4 predictor conditions, patients were divided into "low risk" (with 0-1 risk factor), and "high risk" (3-4 risk factors). The renal end-point occurred in 40% of high-risk patients, while none of the low-risk patients reached it (p = 0.02). CONCLUSIONS: Smoking habit, AKI at diagnosis, ANA positivity and lumbar pain were associated with relapse of RF after initial remission due to steroid and/or TMX therapy; the combination of these conditions was also predictive of worse renal function outcome. Identification of risk factors for relapse can be useful not only to modulate the choice, the dosage of first-line treatment and the duration of maintenance therapy but also for preventing a progressive loss of kidney function, as well.

Predictors of relapse severity in multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: The severity of relapses is one of the determinants of residual disability in multiple sclerosis (MS), contributing to the final progressive state. However, the factors that predict the severity of relapses are not fully understood. AIM: To predict relapse severity in MS and investigate the relationship between relapse severity and the degree of improvement in physical, cognitive, and social tests. METHODS: This observational single-center study prospectively assesses relapse severity in patients with MS. Relapses were classified as mild, moderate, and severe. Before relapse treatment and 1 month into remission four physical tests, four cognitive tests, and six surveys were performed. Multinomial regression analyses were applied to predict relapse severity. RESULTS: A total of 126 relapses were studied prospectively. Twenty-two were lost to follow-up. Multiple sclerosis International Quality of Life (MusiQol) questionnaire (r = 0.28, p = 0.006) and Symbol Digit Modalities Test (SDMT, r = 0.23, p = 0.022) improvement statuses were correlated with the severity of the relapse. Higher cases with improvement were observed in the severe relapse group on both MusiQol and SDMT, but no difference for those with a mild relapse. In the predictive model, only disease duration [Odds Ratio (OR) 0.808 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.691 to 0.945; p = 0.008] and Body Mass Index (BMI, OR 1.148 95% CI 1.018 to 1.294; p = 0.024) were associated with relapse severity. CONCLUSION: Only disease duration was found to be predictive of relapse severity among disease-related variables. On the other hand, BMI may be a modifiable patient-related factor to consider in the management of exacerbations in MS.

Predictors of relapse of visceral leishmaniasis in inner São Paulo State, Brazil.

OBJECTIVES: Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is a public health threat for several tropical countries, including Brazil. Therapy failures and relapses aggravate VL morbidity and mortality. Our study aimed at identifying predictors of relapse and thus contributes to directing therapeutic options and patient follow-up. METHODS: A nonconcurrent cohort of 571 subjects who completed successful therapy for VL in the city of Bauru, São Paulo State, Brazil, was followed for 24 months in order to identify the incidence and predictors of relapse. Extensive review of medical charts and laboratory files was conducted. Univariate and multivariable Cox regression models were used to identify predictors for the outcome of interest. A hierarchical strategy was used for variable selection in multivariable models. RESULTS: Relapses occurred in 6.8% of treated subjects, after a median of 6 months (interquartile range, 4-9). In a comprehensive multivariable model, relapse was associated with: HIV-coinfection (hazard ratio [HR], 7.47; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.58-21.55); the presence of lower limb edema (HR, 6.06; 95%CI, 1.38-26.77) and low platelet count upon admission (HR for platelet count × 1000, 0.99; 95%CI, 0.98-0.99) ; and secondary pneumonia (HR, 5.49; 95%CI, 1.49-20.18). On the other hand, therapy with Liposomal Amphotericin (as opposed to Antimoniate) was not independently associated with relapse (HR, 5.97; 95%CI, 0.63-56.29). CONCLUSION: Besides reinforcing the impact of HIV coinfection on the outcome of VL, our study points to clinical and laboratory findings that characterize patients who were more likely to relapse. Those groups should be more closely followed, and possibly could benefit from novel therapeutic options.

Predictors of early relapse among adolescent crack users.

Relapse is associated with a poor prognosis among drug users. Crack cocaine users are more prone to severe dependence because of the intensity of use. Additionally, initiating drug use during adolescence worsens users' prognosis due to the increased rates of impulsivity and other risk behaviors. This study aimed to identify the predictors of early relapse among adolescent crack users discharged from inpatient treatment. A cohort study was conducted with 89 psychiatric inpatients aged 12-17 years from two different hospitals in southern Brazil who met the criteria for crack abuse or dependence. Demographic data, substance use disorders, psychiatric comorbidities, and crack consumption profile were assessed during hospitalization using the Teen Addiction Severity Index, Schedule for Affective Disorders and Schizophrenia for School Age Children-Present and Lifetime, and Crack Consumption Profile. Participants were re-assessed at 1 and 3 months after hospital discharge to determine their crack cocaine use based on self-report, family/caregiver information, and urine tests, whenever possible. There were extremely high rates of relapse (valid percent) in the first and third months, 65.9 and 86.4%, respectively. Statistically significant associations were observed between relapse in the first month and length of cocaine/crack cocaine use, and length of hospital stay. Data at 3 months were not analyzed because of the small number of patients who did not relapse. The high rates and significant associations found in this study suggest that intensive outpatient treatment strategies targeting this population should be developed and implemented to prevent early relapse after detoxification. One of the possible approaches, based on recent studies, might explore motivation as a strategy to reduce the rate of early relapse.