The Impact of Seattle's Sugar-Sweetened Beverage Tax on Substitution to Sweets and Salty Snacks.

BACKGROUND: Sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) taxes may have broad effects on purchases of untaxed foods, and substitution of SSBs with untaxed sweets and/or salty snacks could offset the intended dietary and health effects of these policies. OBJECTIVES: To test whether there were changes in sales and calories sold for untaxed foods in response to the SSB tax in Seattle, Washington, at 12 and 24 months post-tax implementation. METHODS: On 1 January 2018, the City of Seattle levied a 1.75 cents per ounce excise tax on distributors selling targeted SSBs. We utilized universal product code-level store scanner data and employed a difference-in-differences approach to assess the impacts of the tax on the changes in 1) sales of sweets and salty snacks; and 2) total calories sold for sweets in Seattle relative to changes in its comparison site of Portland, Oregon, at 12 and 24 months post-tax. RESULTS: In the 12 months post-tax, sales of sweets increased by 4% [ratio of incidence rate ratios (RIRR), 1.04; 95% CI, 1.03-1.05] in Seattle relative to the changes in Portland; at 24 months post-tax, sweet sales increased by 6% (RIRR, 1.06; 95% CI, 1.05-1.07) relative to the pretax period. There was no significant change in sales of salty snacks at 12 months (RIRR, 1.00; 95% CI, 0.99-1.01) or 24 months (RIRR, 1.00; 95% CI, 0.98-1.02) post-tax. Total calories sold for sweets increased by 3% (RIRR, 1.03; 95% CI, 1.02-1.05) in Seattle compared with Portland at 12 months post-tax and by 4% (RIRR, 1.04; 95% CI, 1.02-1.05) at 24 months after implementation. CONCLUSIONS: There was modest substitution of SSBs for sweets in Seattle following tax implementation. However, this increase in sales and calories sold is not likely to offset previously identified tax-related reductions in the demand for taxed beverages in Seattle. Thus, SSB taxes are a promising policy tool to reduce caloric intake in the United States.

Would A National Sugar-Sweetened Beverage Tax In The United States Be Well Targeted?

Sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) taxes have been proposed to discourage excessive sugar consumption, but it is unclear how high- vs. low-SSB purchasers respond to such taxes. We first examine heterogeneity in the purchase and financial effects of a national SSB tax across different types of households buying varying amounts of SSBs. We find high-SSB purchasers are less responsive to SSB price changes than low purchasers but make larger absolute reductions in SSB purchases in response to the tax, given their notably greater purchase levels prior to the tax. Nonetheless, the economic burden of the tax falls more heavily on high-SSB purchasers who are more likely comprised of lower-income households. We then investigate whether the income regressivity of the tax will be mitigated if low-income households are targeted by fruit and vegetable (FV) subsidies. We show that depending on the tax pass-through and subsidy rates, FV subsidies can fully offset high-SSB purchasers' tax burdens, and subsidy transfers are distributed relatively uniformly across the SSB purchase distribution of low-income households. Therefore, FV subsidy transfers would be financially more beneficial to low- and moderate-SSB purchasers because they bear smaller shares of the tax burden than high-SSB purchasers.

The effects of an abrupt increase in taxes on candy and soda in Norway: an observational study of retail sales.

BACKGROUND: Fiscal policies are used to promote a healthier diet; however, there is still a call for real-world evaluations of taxes on unhealthy foods and beverages. We aimed to evaluate the effect of an abrupt increase, of respectively 80 and 40%, in the excising Norwegian taxes on candy and beverages on volume sales of candy and soda. We expected sales to fall. METHODS: We analyzed electronic point of sale data covering approximately 98% of volume sales of grocery stores in Norway. In two pre-registered models with weekly (log-)sales of taxed candy and soda from 3884 individual stores, we modeled the difference between the jump (discontinuity) in the trend around the time of the increase in taxes and the corresponding jump in the trend in a control season from the previous years (Model 1). In addition, we modeled the difference between the intervention and the control season in their changes in average sales (Model 2). RESULTS: Model 1 showed a 6.1% (one-sided 95% CI: not applicable (NA), 23.4, p-value = 0.26) increase and a - 3.9% (95% CI: NA, 4.9, p-value = 0.23) reduction in the differences in the jump in the trends, for candy and soda, respectively. The second model showed a relative decrease of - 4.9% (95% CI: NA, 1.0, p-value = 0.08) in the average sales of candy and an increase of 1.5% (95% CI: NA, 5.0, p-value = 0.24) in sales of soda. Supplementary analyses suggested that the results were sensitive to clustering on the time dimension. CONCLUSIONS: When using two different quasi-experimental designs to model changes in volume sales of taxed candy and soda, we were not able to detect reductions in sales that coincided with an increase in the taxes. Variation across time makes it difficult to detect potentially small changes in sales even when using an entire country's worth of sales data on the level of individual stores. We speculate that the tax increases were too modest to affect the prices to alter sales sufficiently.

A discourse network analysis of UK newspaper coverage of the "sugar tax" debate before and after the announcement of the Soft Drinks Industry Levy.

BACKGROUND: On 6th April 2018, the UK Government introduced the Soft Drinks Industry Levy (SDIL) as a mechanism designed to address increasing prevalence of obesity and associated ill health by reducing sugar consumption. Given that the successful introduction of upstream food and nutrition policies is a highly political enterprise involving multiple interested parties, understanding the complex network of stakeholders seeking to influence such policy decisions is imperative. METHODS: Media content analysis was used to build a dataset of relevant newspaper articles, which were analysed to identify stakeholder agreement or disagreement with defined concept statements. We used discourse network analysis to produce visual representations of the network of stakeholders and coalitions evident in the debate as it was presented in UK newspapers, in the lead up to and following the announcement of the Soft Drinks Industry Levy in the UK, from May 2015 to November 2016. RESULTS: Coding identified 3883 statements made by 214 individuals from 176 organisations, relating to 47 concepts. Network visualisations revealed a complex network of stakeholders with clear sceptical and supportive coalitions. Industry stakeholders appeared less united in the network than anticipated, particularly before the SDIL announcement. Some key industry actors appeared in the supportive coalition, possibly due to the use of corporate social responsibility rhetoric. Jamie Oliver appeared as a dominant stakeholder, firmly embedded with public health advocates. CONCLUSION: This study highlights the complexity of the network of stakeholders involved in the public debate on food policies such as sugar tax and the SDIL. Polarisation of stakeholders arose from differences in ideology, focus on a specific policy and statements about the weight of evidence. Vocal celebrity policy entrepreneurs may be instrumental in gaining public and policy makers' support for future upstream regulation to promote population health, to facilitate alignment around a clear ideology.

Designing a food tax to impact food-related non-communicable diseases: the case of Chile.

The global shift towards diets high in sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) and energy dense ultra-processed foods is linked to higher prevalence of obesity, diabetes and most other noncommunicable diseases (NCDs), causing significant health costs. Chile has the highest SSB consumption in the world, very high junk food intake and very rapid increases in these poor components of the diet plus obesity prevalence. This study's purpose is to compare the effect of different tax schemes for SSBs and ultra-processed foods on nutrient availability, utilizing price-elasticities, which are estimated from a Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System model, using the 2011-2012 Income and Expenditure survey. We take into account the high proportion of households not purchasing various food and beverage groups (censored nature of data). The food groups considered were: sweets and desserts; salty snacks and chips; meat products and fats; fruits, vegetables and seafood; cereals and cereal products; SSB ready-to-drink; SSB from concentrate; plain water, coffee and tea; and milk, which together represent 90% of food expenditures. The simulated taxes were: (1) 40% price tax on SSBs(22% above the current tax level); (2) a 5 cents per gram of sugar tax on products with added sugar; and (3) 30% price tax on all foods(27% above current tax levels) and beverages (12% above the current tax level) exceeding thresholds on sodium, saturated fat, and added sugar and for which marketing is restricted (based on a Chilean law, effective June 16 2016). Unhealthy foods are price-elastic (-1.99 for salty snacks and chips, -1.06 for SSBs ready-to-drink, and -1.27 for SSBs from concentrate), meaning that the change in consumption is proportionally larger with respect to a change in price. Results are robust to different model specification, and consistent among different socioeconomic sub-populations. Overall, the tax on marketing controlled foods and beverages is associated with the largest reduction in household purchases of sodium, added sugar, saturated fat and calorie purchases. Chile is unique in currently having instituted a small current SSB tax as well as marketing controls and front-of-package labeling of unhealthy foods and beverages. The design of a larger, more comprehensive tax to enhance the overall effect of these policies on healthier diets is a next critical step. This study shows that a large tax on the same foods and beverages already delineated as unhealthy by the marketing controls and front-of-pack labeling should prove to be more effective for promoting a healthier diet.

Fiscal policies and regulations for healthy diets in Sri Lanka: an analysis of the political economy of taxation and traffic light labelling for sugar-sweetened beverages.

BACKGROUND: Unhealthy dietary patterns significantly contribute to rising non-communicable diseases (NCDs) in Sri Lanka. The government has implemented policy measures to promote healthy dietary patterns, including the traffic light labelling (TLL) system for sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) in 2016 and taxation on SSBs in 2017. OBJECTIVES: To analyse how ideas, institutions, and power dynamics influence the formulation and implementation of these two interventions, and to identify strategies for public health actors to advocate for more effective food environment policies in Sri Lanka. METHODS: This study drew on Kingdon's theory of agenda-setting and Campbell's institutionalist approach to develop the theoretical framework. We examined the political economy at the policy development and implementation stages, adopting a deductive framework approach for data collection and analysis. Data were collected from documents and key informants. RESULTS: NCDs and nutrition are recognised and framed as important policy issues in health-sector policy documents, and the SSB tax and TLL system are seen as means of improving diets and health. Sri Lanka's commitment to addressing NCDs and nutrition-related issues is evident through these policies. The Ministry of Health led policy development, and key stakeholders were involved. However, there are opportunities to learn and strengthen policy in Sri Lanka and elsewhere. Limited involvement and commitment of some stakeholders in developing national policies, industry interferences, and other gaps resulted in weaker policy design. Gender considerations were also given minimal attention in policy formulation and implementation. CONCLUSIONS: To enhance the effectiveness of the policies and regulations to promote healthy diets in Sri Lanka, comprehensive policy coverage, multistakeholder involvement and commitment to national policies, balanced power dynamics, technical feasibility, government commitment backed with high-level political support, awareness, and knowledge creation, managing industry interferences, integrating gender considerations are crucial factors.

The passage and implementation of a Health Promotion Levy in South Africa as a case study of fair financing procedures.

Procedural fairness is an accepted requirement for health decision-making. Fair procedures promote the acceptability and quality of health decisions while simultaneously advancing broader goals of participatory democracy. We conducted a case study of the Sugary Beverage Tax in South Africa known as the Health Promotion Levy (HPL), which was legislated in 2018. The case study examines the process around the adoption of the HPL from the perspective of procedural fairness with the view of identifying local gaps and lessons transferable to other local decision-making processes and other jurisdictions. We conducted a desk review of publically available data relating to the passage and implementation of the HPL, including a review of the policy documents, public submissions during the public participation process, response documents from policymakers, review of national legislative committee minutes, legal instruments and academic literature capturing public awareness, stakeholder views and media content. The data collection is novel in terms of the large scope of data considered, as well as the variety of sources. An analytical framework consisting of key criteria for procedural fairness, informed by a scoping review of the literature, guided the analysis of the decision-making process in South Africa. The process of the adoption and passage of the HPL met the majority of the procedural fairness criteria. However, a shortcoming, which impacted several criteria, was the failure to actively source the participation of community representatives and the larger public. Non-governmental organizations did not adequately fulfil this representative role. Industry interests were also disproportionately considered. The case study highlights the overall importance of viewing general members of the public as interested parties in health policies and the dangers of over-involving policy opponents under a mistaken understanding that this constitutes meaningful public engagement in decision-making procedures.

Sugar-sweetened beverage taxes in Brazil: past, present, and future.

Increasing rates of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) (obesity, type 2 diabetes, and dental caries) are positively associated with the consumption of added sugars, particularly in sugar-sweetened beverages (SSB). Governments worldwide have implemented SSB taxes to reduce the consumption of sugars added to beverages to reduce the prevalence of NCDs. There is a tax on manufactured products, including SSBs in Brazil. However, in 2016 and 2018, the Brazilian federal government decreased the tax rate, bucking global trends. The SSB industry has criticised such policies, and current tax levels are too low to reduce consumption sufficiently to prevent harm. Research supports positive public health impact potential for a higher SSB tax in Brazil. Sharing experience among countries and complementary policies (nutrition education and front of pack labelling) could increase the positive impacts of an SSB tax. We describe the history of SSB taxes in Brazil and the rationale it provides for specific SSB taxes across the country.

Linking a sugar-sweetened beverage tax with fruit and vegetable subsidies: A simulation analysis of the impact on the poor.

BACKGROUND: US individuals, particularly from low-income subpopulations, have very poor diet quality. Policies encouraging shifts from consuming unhealthy food towards healthy food consumption are needed. OBJECTIVES: We simulate the differential impacts of a national sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) tax and combinations of SSB taxes with fruit and vegetable (FV) subsidies targeted to low-income households on SSB and FV purchases of lower and higher SSB purchasers. METHODS: We considered a 1-cent-per-ounce SSB tax and 2 FV subsidy rates of 30% and 50% and used longitudinal grocery purchase data for 79,044 urban/semiurban US households from 2010-2014 Nielsen Homescan data. We used demand elasticities for lower and higher SSB purchasers, estimated via longitudinal quantile regression, to simulate policies' differential effects. RESULTS: Higher-SSB-purchasing households made larger reductions (per adult equivalent) in SSB purchases than lower SSB purchasers due to the tax (e.g., 4.4 oz/day at SSB purchase percentile 90 compared with 0.5 oz/day at percentile 25; P < 0.05). Our analyses by household income indicated low-income households would make larger reductions than higher-income households at all SSB purchase levels. Targeted FV subsidies induced similar, but nutritionally insignificant, increases in FV purchases of low-income households, regardless of their SSB purchase levels. Subsidies, however, were effective in mitigating the tax burdens. All low-income households experienced a net financial gain when the tax was combined with a 50% FV subsidy, but net gains were smaller among higher SSB purchasers. Further, low-income households with children gained smaller net financial benefits than households without children and incurred net financial losses under a 30% subsidy rate. CONCLUSIONS: SSB taxes can effectively reduce SSB consumption. FV subsidies would increase FV purchases, but nutritionally meaningful increases are limited due to low purchase levels before policy implementation. Expanding taxes beyond SSBs, providing larger FV subsidies, or offering subsidies beyond FVs, particularly for low-income households with children, may be more effective.

Implementation of sugar-sweetened beverages tax and its perception among public health stakeholders. A study from Poland.

Background: One of tools to tackle growing problem of overweight and obesity are the taxation mechanisms applied to sugar-sweetened beverages, which are expected to influence the common eating behaviors, but also they have impact on the market and public finances. The solution is therefore highly entangled in the complex of social and intersectoral interests generating a number of opportunities and threats affecting its feasibility. Aims: The study aims to depict the views of Polish stakeholders on the implementation of the sugar tax in Poland, particularly the perception of success determinants, barriers, as well as views on the features of the implemented solutions and possible alternatives. Methods: We used semi-structured interviews with 18 individuals representing key public health stakeholders in Poland. The interview consisted of four parts, where first concentrated on the advantages and disadvantages of the SSB tax, the second part explored stakeholder involvement and stances, third concerned the feasibility of the project, and in the fourth part respondents were asked for suggestions for decision-makers regarding the content of the project and its implementation process. To reconstruct position of 4 main political parties we applied desk research. We used MAXQDA v2020 to analyse the collected data. Results: Stakeholders tend to expressed conflicting views on the effectiveness, relevance and socio-economic impact of the SSB tax. All of them agreed that the tax may appear severe for the poorest groups, children and adolescents, while disagreeing about the economic impact of the levy. The allocation of additional tax revenues was raising doubts, with stakeholders believing that the fiscal aim is the basic reason for implementing the tax, while these resources should be primarily dedicated to health promotion intervention and prevention of diet-related diseases. On the other hand, the political debate on the tax was highly superficial with strong populism arising of the presented positions. Conclusions: There is a need to conduct a thorough public debate and improvements in terms of public communication to increase social awareness, sealing and refining the implemented solutions. Close cooperation with market players and non-governmental organizations is highly recommended.

Longer-term impacts of the Oakland, California, sugar-sweetened beverage tax on prices and volume sold at two-years post-tax.

Sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) consumption is associated with obesity and independently associated with type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease. Not only is obesity a growing public health problem, but it is also most recently associated with increased risk of severe illness from COVID-19. Taxes on SSBs are a policy tool used to help curb SSB consumption and are currently implemented in 7 U.S. cities and more than 40 countries. On July 1, 2017, Oakland, California, implemented a 1-cent/ounce tax on SSBs with ≥25 kilocalories/12 ounces. This study estimated the impact of the Oakland tax on prices, volume sold, and cross-border shopping two-years post-tax relative to one-year pre-tax. Universal product code-level Nielsen retail scanner data on non-alcoholic beverage sales were analyzed using a difference-in-differences design with Sacramento, California, as the comparison site. Taxed beverage prices increased by 0.67 cents/ounce, on average, in Oakland relative to Sacramento, corresponding to 67% pass-through. Taxed beverage volume sold decreased by 18% in Oakland relative to Sacramento, with a larger decrease for family-size beverages (23%) relative to individual-size beverages (8%). There was a 9% increase in volume sold of taxed beverages in the two-mile border area surrounding Oakland relative to the Sacramento border area, driven by a 12% increase for family-size taxed beverages. After accounting for this cross-border shopping, there was a net decrease of 6% in taxed beverage volume sold in Oakland. There was no significant change in untaxed beverage volume sold in either Oakland or its border area relative to their respective comparison sites, suggesting there was no substitution to untaxed beverages and cross-border shopping may have been limited to taxed beverages. This two-year post-tax study of the Oakland SSB tax adds to the limited number of longer-term evaluations of local U.S. SSB taxes.

Action-oriented prospective policy analysis to inform the adoption of a fiscal policy to reduce diet-related disease in the Solomon Islands.

Fiscal tools are recommended as a part of a comprehensive approach to diet-related disease prevention, however, widespread adoption has been hampered by political and economic resistance. The aim of this study was to support an advocacy coalition in the Solomon Islands with evidence-based consideration of the development and implementation of a tax on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs), sensitive to local contextual factors and constraints. In 2017-19, we conducted a prospective policy analysis, including document analysis and qualitative interviews with key stakeholders to elicit policy-relevant data, a quantitative analysis to frame the policy problem and examine appropriate implementation mechanisms, and economic modelling to outline the potential benefits associated with different proposed policy solutions. Applying an action-oriented approach to prospective policy analysis enabled us as researchers to engage in the needs of a 'pro-SSB tax' advocacy coalition and prepare them to exploit policy opportunities created by the meeting of policy 'streams'. Our analysis demonstrated that SSBs were being consumed in relatively large amounts, especially by children, and that there were likely to be substantial health and economic benefits associated with a SSB tax. Increasing fiscal uncertainty for key sectors had created an environment prime for the advocacy coalition to pursue the adoption of an SSB tax. However, we found that policymakers face a number of practical challenges in securing effective adoption and implementation of global food policy recommendations, including that it is difficult to demonstrate the potential efficacy of interventions in the local context. The development of a policy package based on local factors resulted in a policy product that was likely to be more persuasive for local policymakers and policy leaders. We suggest that there is substantial scope for researchers to more effectively engage with policy advocates to inform and shape real-world health policy improvements.

The impact of Seattle's Sweetened Beverage Tax on beverage prices and volume sold.

On January 1, 2018 the city of Seattle, WA, implemented a 1.75-cent per ounce (oz) Sweetened Beverage Tax (SBT) on sugar-sweetened beverages with at least 40 calories per 12 oz. This study drew on universal product code-level store scanner data and used a pre-post intervention-comparison site difference-in-differences (DID) study design to assess the impact of the SBT on taxed beverage prices in Seattle, the volume sold of taxed beverages in Seattle and in its 2-mile border area (cross-border shopping), and the volume sold of untaxed beverages (substitution) relative to changes in its comparison site of Portland, OR. The DID results showed that, on average, in the first year post-tax implementation, prices of taxed beverages rose by 1.03 cents per oz (p < 0.001) corresponding to a 59% tax pass-through rate. Volume sold of taxed beverages fell, on average, by 22% (p < 0.001) in the first year following the implementation of the tax. Volume sold of taxed beverages fell to a greater extent for family- versus individual-size beverages (31% versus 10%) and fell to a greater extent for soda (29%) compared to all other beverage types. Moderate substitution to untaxed beverages was found - volume sold of untaxed beverages increased by 4% (p < 0.05). The results revealed no significant increases in the overall volume sold of taxed beverages in the 2-mile border area of Seattle relative to its comparison site suggesting that tax avoidance in the form of cross-border shopping did not dampen the impact of the tax.