Who's still smoking? Disparities in adult cigarette smoking prevalence in the United States.

The continuing high prevalence of cigarette smoking among specific subpopulations, many of them vulnerable, is one of the most pressing challenges facing the tobacco control community. These populations include individuals in lower education and/or socioeconomic groups; from certain racial/ethnic groups; in the lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgender community; with mental illness; and in the military, particularly among those in the lowest pay grades. Although traditional tobacco control measures are having positive health effects for most groups, the effects are not sufficient for others. More attention to and support for promising novel interventions, in addition to new attempts at reaching these populations through conventional interventions that have proven to be effective, are crucial going forward to find new ways to address these disparities. CA Cancer J Clin 2018;68:106-115. © 2018 American Cancer Society.

Association between Tobacco Industry Interference Index (TIII) and MPOWER measures and adult daily smoking prevalence rate in 30 countries.

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to investigate the impact of tobacco industry interference on the implementation and management of tobacco control and the tobacco epidemic using the Tobacco Industry Interference Index (TIII) and MPOWER-a package of measures for tobacco control-and adult daily smoking prevalence in 30 countries. METHODS: The TIII was extracted from the Global Tobacco Industry Interference Index 2019 and Global Center for Good Governance in Tobacco Control (GGTC). MPOWER measures and adult daily smoking prevalence rate were extracted from the World Health Organization (WHO) report on the global tobacco epidemic in 2021. We assessed the ecological cross-lagged association between TIII and MPOWER scores and between TIII and age-standardized prevalence rates for adult daily tobacco users. RESULTS: Tobacco industry interference was inversely correlated with a country's package of tobacco control measures (ß = -0.088, P = 0.035). The TIII was correlated with weaker warnings about the dangers of tobacco (ß = -0.016, P = 0.078) and lack of enforcement of bans on tobacco advertising promotion and sponsorship (ß = -0.023, P = 0.026). In turn, the higher the TIII, the higher the age-standardized prevalence of adult daily tobacco smokers for both sexes (ß = 0.170, P = 0.036). Adult daily smoking prevalence in males (ß = 0.417, P = 0.004) was higher in countries where the tobacco industry received incentives that benefited its business. CONCLUSION: Where the interference of the tobacco industries was high, national compliance with the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC) was lower, and the prevalence of adult daily smokers higher. National governments and global society must work together to minimize the tobacco industry's efforts to interfere with tobacco control policies.

Risk profiling of tobacco epidemic and estimated number of smokers living in China: a cross-sectional study based on PBICR.

BACKGROUND: Evidence on the prevalence of smoking in China remains insufficient, with most previous studies focusing on a single region. However, smoking prevalence exhibits significant inequalities across the entire country. This study aimed to evaluate the risk of tobacco prevalence across the country, taking into account spatial inequalities. METHODS: The data used in this study were collected in 23 provinces, 5 autonomous regions, and 4 municipalities directly under the central government in 2022. Large population survey data were used, and a Bayesian geostatistical model was employed to investigate smoking prevalence rates across multiple spatial domains. FINDINGS: Significant spatial variations were observed in smokers and exposure to secondhand smoke across China. Higher levels of smokers and secondhand smoke exposure were observed in western and northeastern regions. Additionally, the autonomous region of Tibet, Shanghai municipality, and Yunnan province had the highest prevalence of smokers, while Tibet, Qinghai province, and Yunnan province had the highest prevalence of exposure to secondhand smoke. CONCLUSION: We have developed a model-based, high-resolution nationwide assessment of smoking risks and employed rigorous Bayesian geostatistical models to help visualize smoking prevalence predictions. These prediction maps provide estimates of the geographical distribution of smoking, which will serve as strong evidence for the formulation and implementation of smoking cessation policies. HIGHLIGHTS: Our study investigated the prevalence of smokers and exposure to secondhand smoke in different spatial areas of China and explored various factors influencing the smoking prevalence. For the first time, our study applied Bayesian geostatistical modeling to generate a risk prediction map of smoking prevalence, which provides a more intuitive and clear understanding of the spatial disparities in smoking prevalence across different geographical regions, economic levels, and development status. We found significant spatial variations in smokers and secondhand smoke exposure in China, with higher rates in the western and northeastern regions.

Examining the influence of global smoking prevalence on stroke mortality: insights from 27 countries across income strata.

BACKGROUND: This study investigates the influence of Global Smoking Prevalence (GSP) on Stroke Death Rates (SDR) across 27 countries categorized into High-Income Countries (HIC), Upper Middle-Income Countries (UMIC), Lower Middle-Income Countries (LMIC), and Low-Income Countries (LIC). METHODS: Analysing data from two distinct periods (1990-1999 and 2010-2019), countries exhibiting an increased SDR were selected. The study uses a polynomial regression model, treating income groups as cross-sectional and years as time series data. RESULTS: Results from the regression model reveal that 17 countries observed a significant impact of GSP on SDR, with only Turkey, Solomon Islands, and Timor-Leste resulting in negative values. However, the study emphasises that out of all 27 countries, the highest occurrence of the impact of GSP on SDR has been reported in the LMIC stratum for the period under review. CONCLUSION: It is evident that GSP affects the risk of incidence of stroke death, specifically in the LMIC stratum. Furthermore, it has been identified that GSP is a major preventable risk factor affecting global mortality. To mitigate the risk of stroke death attributable to smoking prevalence, necessary preventive steps should be adopted to encourage smoking cessation, and essential policies should be implemented to reduce the burden of SDR.

Impact of global smoking prevalence on mortality: a study across income groups.

BACKGROUND: Smoking significantly contributes to the mortality rates worldwide, particularly in non-communicable and preventable diseases such as cardiovascular ailments, respiratory conditions, stroke, and lung cancer. This study aims to analyse the impact of smoking on global deaths, and its association with mortality across the main income groups. METHODS: The comprehensive analysis spans 199 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. The study categorises countries into four income groups: high income, upper middle income, lower middle income, and low income. RESULTS: The findings underscore the profound impact of global tobacco smoking on mortality. Notably, cardiovascular disease mortality is notably affected in both upper-middle-income and high-income groups. Chronic respiratory disease mortality rates show a significant impact across all income groups. Moreover, stroke-related mortality is observed in the lower-middle, upper-middle, and high-income groups. These results highlight the pervasive influence of smoking prevalence on global mortality, affecting individuals across various socioeconomic levels. CONCLUSION: The study underscores the critical implications of smoking on mortality rates, particularly in high-income countries. It emphasises the urgency of targeted interventions in these regions to address the specific challenges posed by tobacco smoking on public health. Policy recommendations include implementing prohibitive measures extending to indoor public areas such as workplaces and public transportation services. Furthermore, allocating funds for research on tobacco and health, is imperative to ensure policymakers are consistently informed about emerging facts and trends in this complex domain.

Three in four smokers want to quit tobacco (reference to reassessing the smoking target in Japan): findings from the JASTIS2021 study.

BACKGROUND: To enhance tobacco control in Japan, the government set a future smoking rate target (smoking prevalence = 12% by 2022) arguing that the "smoking rate target is expected if only smokers who want to quit smoking now, actually quit". However, ideally both those wanting to quit now and those who wanted to in the past will succeed in the future. We aimed to re-define smokers who intend to quit and estimate their number. We also examined determinants of intention to quit, including daily tobacco consumption and tobacco use categories (exclusive combustible cigarette users, exclusive heated tobacco product (HTP) users, and dual (combustible cigarette and HTP)) users. METHODS: Using data from the 2021 Japan 'Society and New Tobacco' Internet Survey, we analyzed 5,072 current smokers (had used combustible cigarettes or HTPs in the past 30 days) aged 20-80 years. Smokers who intend to quit were defined as total smokers who want to quit now, have previously attempted or previously wanted to quit. Log-Poisson regression models were used to calculate adjusted odds ratios (aORs) with 95% confidence intervals (95%CI) for intention to quit (current or current/past), adjusting for potential covariates such as tobacco use categories. RESULTS: Among current smokers, 40.6% want to quit now, 27.0% have previously attempted and 9.0% have previously wanted to quit. Smokers of over 20 tobacco sticks/day are less likely to want to quit now than 1-10 /day (aOR = 0.79, 95%CI = 0.71-0.87) and less likely to intend to quit (both current and past) (aOR = 0.93, 95%CI = 0.88-0.98). Exclusive HTP and dual users were more likely to intend to quit (both current and past) than exclusive combustible cigarette users (aOR = 1.09, 95%CI = 1.04-1.14) and (aOR = 1.07, 95%CI = 1.03-1.12). CONCLUSIONS: In total, 76.6% of current smokers, were defined as having intention to quit (both current and past). Applying this percentage to the target calculation, Japan's smoking rate target would be 3.9%, considerably lower than the current target of 12%. The Japanese government may have to revise the smoking rate target. Additionally, we found that the usage of HTPs reduces intention to quit smoking. These insights have implications for setting of smoking rate targets and regulating HTPs in different countries.

The evolution of age-specific smoking cessation rates in the United States from 2009 to 2017: a Kalman filter based approach.

BACKGROUND: Tracking the US smoking cessation rate over time is of great interest to tobacco control researchers and policymakers since smoking cessation behaviors have a major effect on the public's health. Recent studies have employed dynamic models to estimate the US cessation rate through observed smoking prevalence. However, none of those studies has provided annual estimates of the cessation rate by age group. Hence, the primary objective of this study is to estimate annual smoking cessation rates specific to different age groups in the US from 2009 to 2017. METHODS: We employed a Kalman filter approach to investigate the annual evolution of age-group-specific cessation rates, unknown parameters of a mathematical model of smoking prevalence, during the 2009-2017 period using data from the 2009-2018 National Health Interview Surveys. We focused on cessation rates in the 25-44, 45-64 and 65 + age groups. RESULTS: The findings show that cessation rates followed a consistent u-shaped curve over time with respect to age (i.e., higher among the 25-44 and 65 + age groups, and lower among 45-64-year-olds). Over the course of the study, the cessation rates in the 25-44 and 65 + age groups remained nearly unchanged around 4.5% and 5.6%, respectively. However, the rate in the 45-64 age group exhibited a substantial increase of 70%, from 2.5% to 2009 to 4.2% in 2017. The estimated cessation rates in all three age groups tended to converge to the weighted average cessation rate over time. CONCLUSIONS: The Kalman filter approach offers a real-time estimation of cessation rates that can be helpful for monitoring smoking cessation behavior.

The Greek smoking epidemic from a life-course perspective.

BACKGROUND: Smoking rates in Greece are the highest recorded among OECD countries, but the historical and life-course evolution of smoking patterns is largely unknown. The present paper addresses this gap. METHODS: We produce nationally representative life-course trajectories of smoking and related mortality of eight generations of Greek men and women. We estimate the smoking-mortality correlation conditional on several confounders and project the estimates forward. RESULTS: We show that smoking prevalence among Greek men has plateaued at >60% for all but the youngest generation. For women, smoking prevalence is relatively lower, lags by several generations and follows a hump-shaped pattern. Smoking-attributable mortality is currently peaking for men (nearing 40% of total deaths) and is rising for women. We estimate that it takes ~20 years of smoking to maximize the smoking-mortality correlation (at 0.48 for men and 0.32 for women). Based on this estimation, we forecast that mortality rates will begin falling within the current decade. CONCLUSIONS: The breadth of the Greek smoking epidemic has been high by international standards, reflecting the ineffective tobacco control efforts in the country. While smoking popularity fell during the Great Recession, policy vigilance is necessary to prevent a relapse once the economy recovers.

Variation in smoking attributable all-cause mortality across municipalities in Belgium, 2018: application of a Bayesian approach for small area estimations.

BACKGROUND: Smoking is one of the leading causes of preventable mortality and morbidity worldwide, with the European Region having the highest prevalence of tobacco smoking among adults compared to other WHO regions. The Belgian Health Interview Survey (BHIS) provides a reliable source of national and regional estimates of smoking prevalence; however, currently there are no estimates at a smaller geographical resolution such as the municipality scale in Belgium. This hinders the estimation of the spatial distribution of smoking attributable mortality at small geographical scale (i.e., number of deaths that can be attributed to tobacco). The objective of this study was to obtain estimates of smoking prevalence in each Belgian municipality using BHIS and calculate smoking attributable mortality at municipality level. METHODS: Data of participants aged 15 + on smoking behavior, age, gender, educational level and municipality of residence were obtained from the BHIS 2018. A Bayesian hierarchical Besag-York-Mollie (BYM) model was used to model the logit transformation of the design-based Horvitz-Thompson direct prevalence estimates. Municipality-level variables obtained from Statbel, the Belgian statistical office, were used as auxiliary variables in the model. Model parameters were estimated using Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA). Deviance Information Criterion (DIC) and Conditional Predictive Ordinate (CPO) were computed to assess model fit. Population attributable fractions (PAF) were computed using the estimated prevalence of smoking in each of the 589 Belgian municipalities and relative risks obtained from published meta-analyses. Smoking attributable mortality was calculated by multiplying PAF with age-gender standardized and stratified number of deaths in each municipality. RESULTS: BHIS 2018 data included 7,829 respondents from 154 municipalities. Smoothed estimates for current smoking ranged between 11% [Credible Interval 3;23] and 27% [21;34] per municipality, and for former smoking between 4% [0;14] and 34% [21;47]. Estimates of smoking attributable mortality constituted between 10% [7;15] and 47% [34;59] of total number of deaths per municipality. CONCLUSIONS: Within-country variation in smoking and smoking attributable mortality was observed. Computed estimates should inform local public health prevention campaigns as well as contribute to explaining the regional differences in mortality.

Who Smokes in Europe? Data From 12 European Countries in the TackSHS Survey (2017-2018).

BACKGROUND: Population data on tobacco use and its determinants require continuous monitoring and careful inter-country comparison. We aimed to provide the most up-to-date estimates on tobacco smoking from a large cross-sectional survey, conducted in selected European countries. METHODS: Within the TackSHS Project, a face-to-face survey on smoking was conducted in 2017-2018 in 12 countries: Bulgaria, England, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Poland, Portugal, Romania, and Spain, representing around 80% of the 432 million European Union (EU) adult population. In each country, a representative sample of around 1,000 subjects aged 15 years and older was interviewed, for a total of 11,902 participants. RESULTS: Overall, 25.9% of participants were current smokers (31.0% of men and 21.2% of women, P < 0.001), while 16.5% were former smokers. Smoking prevalence ranged from 18.9% in Italy to 37.0% in Bulgaria. It decreased with increasing age (compared to <45, multivariable odds ratio [OR] for ≥65 year, 0.31; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.27-0.36), level of education (OR for low vs high, 1.32; 95% CI, 1.17-1.48) and self-rated household economic level (OR for low vs high, 2.05; 95% CI, 1.74-2.42). The same patterns were found in both sexes. CONCLUSIONS: These smoking prevalence estimates represent the most up-to-date evidence in Europe. From them, it can be derived that there are more than 112 million current smokers in the EU-28. Lower socio-economic status is a major determinant of smoking habit in both sexes.

Revisiting the association between worldwide implementation of the MPOWER package and smoking prevalence, 2008-2017.

BACKGROUND: We revisited the association between progress in MPOWER implementation from 2008 to 2016 and smoking prevalence from 2009 to 2017 and offered an in-depth understanding of differential outcomes for various country groups. METHODS: We used data from six rounds of the WHO Reports on the Global Tobacco Epidemic and calculated a composite MPOWER Score for each country in each period. We categorised the countries in four initial conditions based on their tobacco control preparedness measured by MPOWER score in 2008 and smoking burden measured by age-adjusted adult daily smoking prevalence in 2006: (1) High MPOWER - high prevalence (HM-HP). (2) High MPOWER - low prevalence (HM-LP). (3) Low MPOWER - high prevalence (LM-HP). (4) Low MPOWER - low prevalence (LM-LP). We estimated the association of age-adjusted adult daily smoking prevalence with MPOWER Score and cigarette tax rates using two-way fixed-effects panel regression models including both year and country fixed effects. RESULTS: A unit increase of the MPOWER Score was associated with 0.39 and 0.50 percentage points decrease in adult daily smoking prevalence for HM-HP and HM-LP countries, respectively. When tax rate was controlled for separately from MPOWE, an increase in tax rate showed a negative association with daily smoking prevalence for HM-HP and LM-LP countries, while the MPOWE Score showed a negative association for all initial condition country groups except for LM-LP countries. CONCLUSION: A decade after the introduction of the WHO MPOWER package, we observed that the countries with higher initial tobacco control preparedness and higher smoking burden were able to reduce the adult daily smoking prevalence significantly.

Estimating future smoking in Danish youth - effects of three prevention strategies.

Aims: Preventing smoking and aiding cessation among youth and young adults carries the possibility of reducing future smoking prevalence significantly. This paper estimates the impact on future smoking prevalence of 25 year olds by increasing tobacco prices, securing indoor smoke-free homes and implementing school-based multi-tiered interventions. Methods: Utilizing a multi-state Markov model, a status quo projection of the smoking prevalence from years 2017 to 2030 were compared with projections of the smoking prevalence in 2030 considering the impact of the three prevention strategies. Results: In a status quo projection, 27.0% of Danish 25-year-old females are expected to be smokers in 2030, while 13.2% would be smokers in 2030 were all three prevention strategies in effect from 2019. By itself, increasing tobacco prices by 50% reduced the prevalence of smokers among 25-year-old females to 14.8% in 2030, a relative reduction of 47.5%. For 25-year-old males in 2030 the reductions were similar, with a prevalence of 16.6% when all three prevention strategies were in effect, a relative reduction of 51.5%. Conclusions: Implementing increasing tobacco prices, indoor smoke-free homes and school-based multi-tiered interventions in Denmark is likely to significantly decrease youth smoking prevalence in the future. However, these three strategies will not produce a smoke-free generation without other initiatives.

Changes in prevalence, and factors associated with tobacco use among Bangladeshi school students: evidence from two nationally representative surveys.

BACKGROUND: Globally, tobacco kills more than nine million people per year. Annually in Bangladesh, smoking accounts for 1.2 million illnesses and over one hundred fifty thousand deaths. Worldwide, about one out of five school students smoke tobacco, and this problem is also growing significantly in Bangladesh. There is a need to address this problem. However, to the best of knowledge, no published study has been evaluated the changes in factors associated with tobacco use over time among Bangladeshi adolescent students using large, nationally representative comparable surveys. Our objective was to identify the factors associated with tobacco use among school going students, examine any changes in them over time, and explore policy options based on national surveys. METHODS: We analysed the data from the 2007 and the 2013 Global Youth Tobacco Survey (GYTS), a school-based survey targeting adolescents age 13-15 years (7th-9th grade), developed by the World Health Organization (WHO) and the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). The samples were selected based on a two-stage cluster sample design. The data were collected in school classes using a self-administered anonymous survey. We applied chi-square tests and survey logistic regression models for analysing the data. RESULTS: Overall tobacco usage significantly declined from 8.4 to 6.9% over six years. The prevalence of tobacco use decreased among females (5.22 to 2.84%), those who received anti-tobacco messages (8.93 to 7.24%) and because of age restriction could not buy tobacco products (18.86 to 15.78%). Compared with the female, the odds of overall tobacco smoking among male students was 1.97 (CI: 0.99-3.92) in the year 2007 and it increased (OR = 3.07; CI: 1.56-6.04) in the year 2013. Moreover, the odds of smoking among those exposed to tobacco smoke had increased (OR = 3.26; CI: 1.46-7.29 vs 5.43; CI: 1.63-18.07) from 2007 to 2013. CONCLUSION: There was a decline in tobacco use, especially among female students. Male students were higher tobacco user. It appeared anti-smoking campaign and age restriction policies were working.

[Trends in smoking prevalence by occupations defined in the Japan Standard Occupational Classification: A repeated cross-sectional analysis of the Comprehensive Survey of Living Conditions, 2001-2016].

Objectives　Few studies have focused on the relationship between smoking habits and occupation in Japan. This study aimed to examine the changes in smoking prevalence by occupation, specifically those occupations defined in the Japan Standard Occupational Classification (JSOC).Methods　We analyzed data from the Comprehensive Survey of Living Conditions, a large nationally representative survey conducted in Japan every three years, between 2001 and 2016. Survey participants were asked whether they (1) "never smoked," (2) "smoked daily," (3) "smoked occasionally but not every day," or (4) "used to smoke daily (before, at least one month)." Participants who answered (2) "smoked daily" or (3) "smoked occasionally but not every day" were considered "current smokers." Age-standardized smoking prevalence was computed based on the JSOC (10 categories: administrative and managerial; professional; clerical; sales; services; security; agriculture, forestry, and fishing; transport; manufacturing, construction, mining, carrying, cleaning, and packaging; and unemployment). The analyses were restricted to workers and unemployed men and women aged 25 to 64 years old.Results　Between 2001 and 2016, the smoking prevalence (of the entire population aged 25 to 64 years old) decreased from 56.0% (95% confidence interval [95% CI]: 55.8-56.3%) to 38.4% (95% CI: 38.1-38.6%) among men, and from 17.0% (95% CI 16.8-17.2%) to 13.0% (95% CI 12.8-13.1%) among women. In 2016, the smoking prevalence for clerical (the lowest smoking prevalence) and transport workers (the highest smoking prevalence) was 27.9% (95% CI: 27.0-28.8%) and 48.3% (95% CI: 46.8-49.7%), respectively, for men, and 9.4% (95% CI: 9.0-9.7%), and 38.5% (95% CI: 32.6-44.5%), respectively, for women. Between 2001 and 2016, the smoking prevalence for men decreased for all occupations, whereas for women, the smoking prevalence decreased for all occupations except for security and for transport workers. The largest reduction rate of smoking prevalence between 2001 and 2016 for men and for women was observed in clerical workers (-21.0%) and sales workers (-7.2%), respectively. We also found that clerical workers had the lowest smoking prevalence across the 5-year age categories for both sexes, especially the younger age, which resulted in the largest differences in smoking prevalence by occupation among men aged 30 to 34 years old.Conclusion　We confirmed that, between 2001 and 2016, the lowest and highest smoking prevalence for both sexes is found among clerical workers and among transport workers, respectively. Although smoking prevalence has declined among working-aged men and women between 2001 and 2016, large differences by occupations consistently exist in Japan. It is necessary to take measures against smoking habits in consideration of their social backgrounds and work environments.

The past is not the future in tobacco control.

In this paper we have attempted to identify missed opportunities to change the trajectory of smoking and smoking caused diseases in America over the past 100 years. Many of the missed opportunities identified are due to the actions of cigarette manufacturers who misled the public about the dangers of cigarette smoking, the addictiveness of nicotine, and the feasibility of providing lower risk alternative nicotine delivery products to addicted smokers. An important lesson learned from the past is that treating all tobacco/nicotine products as equivalently harmful is counterproductive to public health as it only serves to protect the most lethal nicotine product - cigarettes. Since 2000, the evolving marketplace of lower risk nicotine products combined with regulatory authority over tobacco products represents a new opportunity to dramatically transform the cigarette business in ways that were never imagined when the war on tobacco was raging decades ago. However, this requires embracing risk-proportionate regulation, taxation policies, and providing consumers with accurate public messaging on product relative risks. A regulatory framework based on sound science that encourages and rewards new or existing manufacturers to invest in consumer acceptable lower risk products to replace cigarettes needs to be encouraged. The past is indeed not the future in smoking control, but it may be difficult to escape the past unless a realignment of market forces and policies can be achieved.

Taking the pressure off the spring: the case of rebounding smoking rates when antitobacco campaigns ceased.

OBJECTIVE: Smoking rates have been compared with a spring, requiring continuous downward pressure against protobacco forces, rather than a screw, which once driven down stays down. Quality antitobacco mass media campaigns put downward pressure on smoking rates. The suspension of a major Australian state campaign provided a natural experiment to assess effects on smoking. Furthermore, we document the positive influence of robust monitoring and mature advocacy on the political decision to reinstate funding. We also document the misuse by industry of South Australian smoking data from the period between Australia's implementation and subsequent evaluation of plain packaging. METHODS: A time series analysis was used to examine monthly smoking prevalence trends at each of four intervention points: (A) commencement of high-intensity mass media campaign (August 2010); (B) introduction of plain packaging (December 2012), (C) defunding of campaign (July 2013); and (D) reinstatement of moderate-intensity campaign (July 2014). FINDINGS: The suspension of the antitobacco campaign was disruptive to achieving smoking prevalence targets. There was an absence of a downward monthly smoking prevalence trajectory during the non-campaign period. Moreover, there was a significant decline in smoking prevalence during the period of high-intensity advertising, which continued after the introduction of plain packaging laws, and at the recommencement of campaign activity. CONCLUSIONS: While the observed declines in smoking prevalence are likely due to a combination of interventions and cannot be attributed exclusively to antitobacco advertising, the results reinforce the political decision to reinstate the campaign and demonstrate the need for maintained investment to keep downward pressure on smoking rates.

Gender differential secular trend in lifetime smoking prevalence among adolescents: an age-period-cohort analysis.

BACKGROUND: There has been a gender difference in adolescents' lifetime smoking prevalence trends over the last 10 years. This study aimed to explain the gender differential secular trend in adolescents' lifetime smoking prevalence using age-period-cohort (APC) analysis and suggests possible causes for this trend, including Korean tobacco control policies during the last 10 years. METHODS: We utilized the 2006-2017 Korea Youth Risk Behavior Web-based Survey enrolling grades 7 to 12. Using year of survey and year of entry into middle school, we classified 859,814 students who had ever smoked into 6 age groups, 12 periods, and 17 school admission cohorts. Using APC analysis with the intrinsic estimator method, the effects of age, period, and school admission cohort on lifetime smoking prevalence were analyzed according to gender. RESULTS: Overall, there was a similar tendency of all the three effects on lifetime smoking prevalence between genders: an increasing age effect with grade, negative period effect with survey period, and similar pattern of school admission cohort groups. However, compared to boys, girls experienced reduction in the increasing age effect in the 12th grade, consistent and steeper decreasing trend in the period effect from 2006 to 2016, and shorter and lower school admission cohort effect. CONCLUSIONS: Gender differential response to chronological changes in lifetime smoking prevalence was measured by the APC effect, which affected the gender differential secular trend in lifetime smoking prevalence. Therefore, considering the APC effect could help us understand the trend in smoking rates, as well as the contextual factors that affect it.

Discrepancies in the Validity of Self-Reported Cigarette Smoking in Adults With and Without ADHD.

Objective: Attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is associated with an increased smoking prevalence and impairments in executive function, which may negatively affect the validity of self-reported smoking rates. This study compares the utility of self-reported smoking with salivary cotinine in adult smokers and nonsmokers with and without ADHD. Methods: Participants (N = 82) were adult smokers and nonsmokers with and without ADHD (n = 35 ADHD and n = 47 controls) from an observational study. Odds ratios (ORs) for accuracy of self-reported smoking compared to salivary cotinine were calculated using diagnosis (ADHD vs. control), gender, age, education, employment, and number of cigarettes per day as predictors. Post-hoc analysis stratified sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy of self-reported smoking in individuals with ADHD and without ADHD. Results: The initial analysis identified education as a significant independent predictor of odds of accuracy, OR = 6.22, p = .013, after adjusting for diagnosis, gender, age, employment, and cigarettes per day. Post-hoc analysis revealed that sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy of self-reported smoking was 100% for individuals with ADHD who had more than high school education compared to those with high school or less, which was 83.3%, 45.5%, and 65.2%, respectively. Self-reported smoking of control participants with greater than a high school education had a sensitivity of 85.7%, a specificity of 91.7%, and an accuracy of 88.5%. Control participants with a high school or lower education had a sensitivity of 54.6%, a specificity of 90%, and an accuracy of 71.4% for their self-reported smoking. Conclusions: Individuals with ADHD and high school or lower education showed the lowest specificity and accuracy in their self-reported smoking, which may affect documented smoking prevalence rates. This is a secondary analysis of data collected as part of a clinical trial registered as NCT00915798 at www.clinicaltrials.gov .

Trends in Cigarette Smoking among Middle-Aged Lithuanian Subjects Participating in the Primary Prevention Program between 2009 and 2016.

Background and Objectives: The aim of the study was to evaluate trends in smoking among middle-aged men and women based on the data from the Lithuanian High Cardiovascular Risk (LitHiR) primary prevention program between 2009 and 2016. Materials and Methods: A community-based cross-sectional study comprised 92373 Lithuanian adults (41.6% men and 58.4% women). We compared the prevalence of smoking, smoking cessation activity and smoking intensity by gender and age groups. Results: There was a statistically significant upward trend in the number of smoking subjects (average annual percent change (AAPC) 2.99%, p < 0.001). The number of smoking male subjects remained much higher than the number of smoking female subjects during the 2009-2016 period. The study showed a significant increase in the percentage of smoking quitters in the whole group (AAPC 7.22%, p < 0.001) and among men and women separately. There was no significant change in smoking intensity in groups of male and female smokers separately. Conclusions: The analysis showed that the prevalence of smoking in Lithuania is still increasing due to women smoking despite all the governmental tobacco control efforts to reduce it.

Associations between tobacco control mass media campaign expenditure and smoking prevalence and quitting in England: a time series analysis.

BACKGROUND: It has been established that mass media campaigns can increase smoking cessation rates, but there is little direct evidence estimating associations between government expenditure on tobacco control mass media campaigns and smoking cessation. This study assessed the association over 8 years between mass media expenditure in England and quit attempts, smoking cessation and smoking prevalence. METHODS: Autoregressive integrated moving average modelling with exogenous variables (ARIMAX) was applied to monthly estimates from the Smoking Toolkit Study between June 2008 and February 2016. We assessed the association between the trends in mass media expenditure and (1) quit attempts in the last two months, (2) quit success among those who attempted to quit and (3) smoking prevalence. Analyses were adjusted for trends in weekly spending on tobacco by smokers, tobacco control policies and the use of established aids to cessation. RESULTS: Monthly spending on mass media campaigns ranged from nothing to £2.4 million, with a mean of £465 054. An increase in mass media expenditure of 10% of the monthly average was associated with a 0.51% increase (of the average) in success rates of quit attempts (95% CI 0.10% to 0.91%, p=0.014). No clear association was detected between changes in mass media expenditure and changes in quit attempt prevalence (ß=-0.03, 95% CI -2.05% to 2.00%, p=0.979) or smoking prevalence (ß=-0.03, 95% CI -0.09% to 0.03%, p=0.299). CONCLUSION: Between 2008 and 2016, higher monthly expenditure on tobacco control mass media campaigns in England was associated with higher quit success rates.