You Know What I Know: Interviewer Knowledge Effects in Subjective Expectation Elicitation.

Directly eliciting individuals' subjective beliefs via surveys is increasingly popular in social science research, but doing so via face-to-face surveys has an important downside: the interviewer's knowledge of the topic may spill over onto the respondent's recorded beliefs. Using a randomized experiment that used interviewers to implement an information treatment, we show that reported beliefs are significantly shifted by interviewer knowledge. Trained interviewers primed respondents to use the exact numbers used in the training, nudging them away from higher answers; recorded responses decreased by about 0.3 standard deviations of the initial belief distribution. Furthermore, respondents with stronger prior beliefs were less affected by interviewer knowledge. We suggest corrections for this issue from the perspectives of interviewer recruitment, survey design, and experiment setup.

The informational content of subjective expectations for health service use.

BACKGROUND: This study aims to evaluate the informational content of people's subjective probability expectations for using various health services. METHODS: Using a sample of 1,528 Australian adults (25-64 years), I compared stated probabilities of visiting various health service providers (hospitals, dentists, optometrists, physiotherapists and related care providers, naturopaths and massage therapists) with past utilization and with predicted utilization estimated out-of-sample. I also estimated whether past utilization and subjective expectations were predicted by the same covariates. Finally, I estimated whether subjective expectations had predictive power for the choice to purchase private health insurance conditional on past utilization and other controls. RESULTS: Subjective expectations closely reflect patterns of observed utilization, are predicted by the same covariates as observed utilization, and correlate with objective measures of risk. Subjective expectations also add predictive power to models estimating insurance take-up, even after conditioning on prior health care use and other risk factors. CONCLUSION: The findings are indicative that on average people form quite accurate expectations, and support collecting subjective expectations about health services in household surveys for use in applied research.

Individual Uncertainty About Longevity.

This article presents an assessment of individual uncertainty about longevity. A survey performed on 3,331 French people enables us to record several survival probabilities per individual. On this basis, we compute subjective life expectancies (SLE) and subjective uncertainty regarding longevity (SUL), the standard deviation of each individual's subjective distribution of her or his own longevity. It is large and equal to more than 10 years for men and women. Its magnitude is comparable to the variability of longevity observed in life tables for individuals under 60, but it is smaller for those older than 60, which suggests use of private information by older respondents. Our econometric analysis confirms that individuals use private information-mainly their parents' survival and longevity-to adjust their level of uncertainty. Finally, we find that SUL has a sizable impact, in addition to SLE, on risky behaviors: more uncertainty on longevity significantly decreases the probability of unhealthy lifestyles. Given that individual uncertainty about longevity affects prevention behavior, retirement decisions, and demand for long-term care insurance, these results have important implications for public policy concerning health care and retirement.

Individual survival curves comparing subjective and observed mortality risks.

We compare individual survival curves constructed from objective (actual mortality) and elicited subjective information (probability of survival to a given target age). We develop a methodology to estimate jointly subjective and objective individual survival curves accounting for rounding on subjective reports of perceived survival. We make use of the long follow-up period in the Health and Retirement Study and the high quality of mortality data to estimate individual survival curves that feature both observed and unobserved heterogeneity. This allows us to compare objective and subjective estimates of remaining life expectancy for various groups and compare welfare effects of objective and subjective mortality risk using the life cycle model of consumption. We find that subjective and objective hazards are not the same. The median welfare loss from misperceptions of mortality risk when annuities are not available is 7% of current wealth at age 65 whereas more than 25% of respondents have losses larger than 60% of wealth. When annuities are available and exogenously given, the welfare loss is substantially lower.

Do they know what is at risk? Health risk perception among the obese.

The perception of health risks and risky health behaviors are closely associated. In this paper, we investigate the accuracy of health risk perceptions among obese individuals, aged 50-62 years. We compare subjective risk perceptions for various diseases elicited in the American Life Panel to individual's objective risks of the same diseases. We find that obese individuals significantly underestimate their 5-year risks of arthritis or rheumatism and hypertension, whereas they systematically overestimate their 5-year risks of a heart attack and a stroke. Obese individuals are thus aware of some but not all obesity-related health risks. For given diseases, we document substantial heterogeneities in the accuracy of expectations across individuals.

Effects of Future Subjective Expectations on Cognitive Decline and Dementia among Middle-Aged and Older Adults.

This study investigated the impact of subjective expectations of the future (e.g., income, life expectancy, and national policies) on the onset of dementia and mild cognitive impairment by sex and age in middle-aged and older adults. The Korean Longitudinal Study of Aging (KLoSA) data from 2008 to 2020, comprising 4116 people above 45 years, were used. A time-series analysis and multiple panel logistic regression were conducted to highlight subjective expectation trends and their effect on dementia and mild cognitive impairment, respectively. Low subjective expectations of the future negatively affected cognitive impairment (total: odds ratio [OR] = 1.02, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.01-1.03) and dementia (total: OR = 1.05, 95% CI = 1.03-1.06), and those of national policies were the biggest risk factors for cognitive impairment (total: OR = 1.17, 95% CI = 1.12-1.22) and dementia (total: OR = 1.10, 95% CI = 1.07-1.13). Individuals about to retire and with low expectations of workability were more likely to develop cognitive impairment (total: OR = 1.03, 95% CI = 1.02-1.06). Subjective expectations of economic downturn also caused cognitive impairment, especially in women (OR = 1.04, 95% CI = 1.01-1.07) and early stage older adults (OR = 1.06, 95% CI = 1.02-1.10). Policymakers must consider the impact of changes in national policies and living environments on cognitive impairment and dementia in older adults.

The Role of Subjective Expectations for Exhaustion and Recovery: The Sample Case of Work and Leisure.

We propose a new model of exhaustion and recovery that posits that people evaluate an activity as exhausting or recovering on the basis of the subjective expectation about how exhausting or recovering activities related to a certain life domain are. To exemplify the model, we focus as a first step on the widely shared expectations that work is exhausting and leisure is recovering. We assume that the association of an activity related to a life domain associated with exhaustion (e.g., work) leads people to monitor their experiences and selectively attend to signs of exhaustion; in contrast, while pursuing an activity related to a life domain associated with recovery (e.g., leisure), people preferentially process signs of recovery. We further posit that the preferential processing of signs of exhaustion (vs. recovery) leads to experiencing more exhaustion when pursuing activities expected to be exhausting (e.g., work activities) and more recovery when pursuing activities expected to be recovering (e.g., leisure activities). This motivational process model of exhaustion and recovery provides new testable hypotheses that differ from predictions derived from limited-resource models.

Expectations About Future Economic Prospects and Satisfaction with Democracy: Evidence from European Countries during the COVID-19 Crisis.

Recent studies highlight that economic expectations are a crucial determinant of citizens' satisfaction with democracy (SWD). This article relies on a cross-sectional analysis of European survey data collected in the aftermath of COVID-19 disease to investigate the relationship between citizens' expectations about future economic prospects and their SWD. Our findings support the idea that citizens' expectations about future economic prospects are correlated with SWD. Furthermore, they reveal that perceived conditions of material wellbeing moderate this relationship.

Subjective expectations concerning life expectancy and age-related health burden / Az élettartammal és az idoskori betegségteherrel kapcsolatos szubjektív várakozások.

Összefoglaló. Bevezetés: A lakosság idosödésével növekvo betegségteher egyéni és társadalmi szinten is fokozódó nyomást jelent. Célkituzés: Felmérni a hazai általános felnott lakosságnak a korlátozottsággal, a gondozási igényekkel és a munkavégzéssel kapcsolatos idoskori szubjektív várakozásait. Módszer: Online keresztmetszeti felmérést végeztünk. A korlátozottsággal kapcsolatos várakozásokat a hivatalos szakstatisztikákban alkalmazott globális tevékenységkorlátozottsági mutató (Global Activity Limitation Indicator, GALI) segítségével elsoként vizsgáltuk. A jelen és szubjektíve várt munkavégzést, gondozási igényt, gondozói tevékenységet, valamint a jelen egészségi állapotot és szociodemográfiai helyzetet vizsgáló kérdéseket is feltettünk. Statisztikai analízis: A mintában mért adatokat lokális polinom segítségével simítottuk, és a 60/70/80/90 éves korra adott szubjektív várakozásokkal hasonlítottuk össze. A szubjektív várakozásokat meghatározó tényezoket intervallumregresszióval becsültük. Eredmények: 1000 kitöltotol 914 érvényes választ kaptunk. Az átlagéletkor (± szórás) 51,2 (± 15,2) év, a minta 55,8%-a no volt. A férfiak között a fizetett munkát végzok (p<0,001), a nok között az informális gondozók aránya volt magasabb (p = 0,010). Az átlagos (± szórás) szubjektíve várható élettartam (81,0 ± 11,1 év) a minta statisztikailag várható élettartamánál (79,6 ± 3,7 év) 1,3 évvel volt hosszabb (p<0,001), azonban az átlagos, szubjektíve várható egészséges élettartam (64,6 ± 15,2 év) 5,3 évvel volt rövidebb a statisztikailag várható értéknél (70,0 ± 4,2 év; p<0,001). A szubjektíve várható egészséges élettartamot és gondozási igényt elsosorban a válaszadók jelenlegi egészségi állapota befolyásolta. Az életmód és a szubjektíve várható egészséges élettartam között noknél nem találtunk összefüggés, míg a túlzott gyakorisággal alkoholt fogyasztó vagy elhízott férfiak hosszabb egészséges élettartamra számítottak. A szubjektív várakozások meghatározó tényezoi jelentos nemi különbségeket mutattak. Következtetés: Az egészséggel, munkával és gondozással kapcsolatos szubjektív várakozások eltéroek a populációban mért valós adatoktól, és különböznek a nemek között. Orv Hetil. 2021; 162(23): 911-923. INTRODUCTION: The growing disease burden due to ageing populations poses a challenge on both individuals and societies. OBJECTIVE: To explore the general population's subjective expectations concerning disability, care needs and employment at older ages. METHOD: We conducted an online cross-sectional survey. We were the first to measure subjective health expectations using the Global Activity Limitation Indicator (GALI) of official health statistics. Respondents' actual status and subjective expectations concerning employment, care needs and informal caregiver status, self-perceived health and sociodemographic factors were queried. STATISTICAL ANALYSIS: We estimated sample characteristics by local polynomial smoothing and compared with subjective expectations at ages of 60/70/80/90 years. Determinants of subjective expectations were analyzed via interval regression. RESULTS: From 1000 subjects, 914 provided valid responses. Mean (± SD) age was 51.2 (± 15.2) years, and 55.8% of respondents were women. Paid employment was more frequent among men (p<0.001), while informal caregiver status among women (p = 0.010). Mean (± SD) subjective life expectancy (81.0 ± 11.1 years) was 1.3 years longer (p<0.001) than actuarial life-expectancy (79.6 ± 3.7 years), while mean subjective healthy life expectancy (sHLE) (64.6 ± 15.2 years) was 5.3 years shorter than actuarial healthy life expectancy (70.0 ± 4.2 years; p<0.001). sHLE and care needs were mainly determined by respondents' self-perceived health. Lifestyle risks were not associated with sHLE in women, while pervasive drinker or obese men expected longer healthy life span. Determinants of sHLE showed considerable gender differences. CONCLUSION: Subjective expectations concerning health, employment and care needs differ from actual values of the general population, with considerable gender differences. Orv Hetil. 2021; 162(23): 911-923.

Subjective expectations regarding ageing: a cross-sectional online population survey in Hungary.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to investigate individuals' subjective expectations regarding health and happiness alongside their provisions on life circumstances for older ages. METHODS: A cross-sectional online survey was performed involving a representative sample (N = 1000; mean age 50.9, SD = 15.4; female 54.5%) in Hungary. Subjective expectations on health status (EQ-5D-3L/-5L, GALI, WHO-5), happiness (0-10 VAS), employment status, care time, and forms of care for ages 60, 70, 80, and 90 were surveyed. RESULTS: Current mean EQ-5D-5L was 0.869 (SD = 0.164) and happiness was 6.7 (SD = 2.4). Subjective life expectancy was 80.9 (SD = 11.1), and median expected retirement age was 65. Mean expected EQ-5D-5L for ages 60/70/80/90 was 0.761/0.684/0.554/0.402, and no activity limitations (GALI) were expected by 64%/40%/18%/14%, respectively. Expected happiness score was 6.8/6.7/6.2/5.7, and a decrease in mental well-being (WHO-5) was provisioned. A substantial increase in drug expenses and care time was anticipated, but only 52% thought to have extra income besides pension. The great majority expected to be helped by the family (77%/72%/53%/40%) if needed. Educational level, GALI, and longevity expectations were significant predictors of EQ-5D-5L expectations using a standard 5% significance level of decision. Current happiness was major determinant of expected future happiness. CONCLUSIONS: Individuals expect a significant deterioration of health with age but only a moderate decrease in happiness. Overestimation of future activity limitations suggests a gap between statistical and subjective healthy life expectancy. The majority expects to rely on informal care in the elderly. Raise in retirement age is underestimated. Our results can be used as inputs for economic modelling of labor force participation and ageing.

A short note on measuring subjective life expectancy: survival probabilities versus point estimates.

Understanding subjective longevity expectations is important, but measurement is not straightforward. Two common elicitation formats are the direct measurement of a subjective point estimate of life expectancy and the assessment of survival probabilities to a range of target ages. This study presents one of the few direct comparisons of these two methods. Results from a representative sample of the Dutch population indicate that respondents on average gave higher estimates of longevity using survival probabilities (83.6 years) compared to point estimates (80.2 years). Individual differences between elicitation methods were smaller for younger respondents and for respondents with a higher socioeconomic status. The correlation between the subjective longevity estimations was moderate, but their associations with respondents' characteristics were similar. Our results are in line with existing literature and suggest that findings from both elicitation methods may not be directly comparable, especially in certain subgroups of the population. Implications of inconsistent and focal point answers, rounding and anchoring require further attention. More research on the measurement of subjective expectations is required.

Changes in Spending and Labor Supply in Response to a Social Security Benefit Cut: Evidence from Stated Choice Data.

We investigate how individuals in the U.S. expect to adjust their labor force participation and savings if Social Security benefits were cut by 30 percent. Respondents were asked directly what they would do under this scenario. Using the resulting stated choice data we find that respondents would on average reduce spending by 18.2 percent before retirement and 20.4 percent after retirement. About 34.1% of respondents state they would definitely work longer and they would postpone claiming Social Security by 1.1 years. We investigate how working longer and claiming Social Security later would compensate partially for the loss in benefits among the individuals who are currently working, under the assumption that individuals retire and claim at the same time. Individuals would increase their Social Security benefits from the post-reform level due to additional earnings entering the benefit calculation and a smaller early claiming penalty (or higher delayed claiming credit). As a result, the Social Security benefit people would receive would drop on average by 21 rather than 30 percent. Still, the net financial loss, even after accounting for additional earnings, is sizeable for individuals in the lowest wealth tertile.

A long life in good health: subjective expectations regarding length and future health-related quality of life.

BACKGROUND: Subjective life expectancy is considered relevant in predicting mortality and future demand for health services as well as for explaining peoples' decisions in several life domains, such as the perceived impact of health behaviour changes on future health outcomes. Such expectations and in particular subjective expectations regarding future health-related quality of life remain understudied. The purpose of this study was to investigate individuals' subjective quality adjusted life years (QALYs) expectation from age 65 onwards in a representative sample of the Dutch generic public. METHODS: A web-based questionnaire was administered to a sample of the adult population from the Netherlands. Information on subjective expectations regarding length and future health-related quality of life were combined into one single measure of subjective expected QALYs from age 65 onwards. This subjective QALY expectation was related to background, health and lifestyle variables. The implications of using different methods to construct our main outcome measure were addressed. RESULTS: Mean subjective expected QALYs from age 65 onwards was 11 QALYs (range -9 to 40 QALYs). Individuals with unhealthier lifestyles, chronic diseases, severe disorders or lower age of death of next of kin reported lower QALY expectations. Indicators were varyingly associated with either subjective life expectancy or future health-related quality of life, or both. CONCLUSION: Extending the concept of subjective life expectancy by correcting for expected quality of life appears to generate important additional information contributing to our understanding of people's perceptions regarding ageing and lifestyle choices.

Estimating Second Order Probability Beliefs from Subjective Survival Data.

Based on subjective survival probability questions in the Health and Retirement Study (HRS), we use an econometric model to estimate the determinants of individual-level uncertainty about personal longevity. This model is built around the modal response hypothesis (MRH), a mathematical expression of the idea that survey responses of 0%, 50%, or 100% to probability questions indicate a high level of uncertainty about the relevant probability. We show that subjective survival expectations in 2002 line up very well with realized mortality of the HRS respondents between 2002 and 2010. We show that the MRH model performs better than typically used models in the literature of subjective probabilities. Our model gives more accurate estimates of low probability events and it is able to predict the unusually high fraction of focal 0%, 50%, and 100% answers observed in many data sets on subjective probabilities. We show that subjects place too much weight on parents' age at death when forming expectations about their own longevity, whereas other covariates such as demographics, cognition, personality, subjective health, and health behavior are under weighted. We also find that less educated people, smokers, and women have less certain beliefs, and recent health shocks increase uncertainty about survival, too.