Earned outcomes correlate with reliability-adjusted surgical mortality after abdominal aortic aneurysm repair and predict future performance.

OBJECTIVE: Cumulative, probability-based metrics are regularly used to measure quality in professional sports, but these methods have not been applied to health care delivery. These techniques have the potential to be particularly useful in describing surgical quality, where case volume is variable and outcomes tend to be dominated by statistical "noise." The established statistical technique used to adjust for differences in case volume is reliability-adjustment, which emphasizes statistical "signal" but has several limitations. We sought to validate a novel measure of surgical quality based on earned outcomes methods (deaths above average [DAA]) against reliability-adjusted mortality rates, using abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) repair outcomes to illustrate the measure's performance. METHODS: Earned outcomes methods were used to calculate the outcome of interest for each patient: DAA. Hospital-level DAA was calculated for non-ruptured open AAA repair and endovascular aortic repair (EVAR) in the Vascular Quality Initiative database from 2016 to 2019. DAA for each center is the sum of observed - predicted risk of death for each patient; predicted risk of death was calculated using established multivariable logistic regression modeling. Correlations of DAA with reliability-adjusted mortality rates and procedure volume were determined. Because an accurate quality metric should correlate with future results, outcomes from 2016 to 2017 were used to categorize hospital quality based on: (1) risk-adjusted mortality; (2) risk- and reliability-adjusted mortality; and (3) DAA. The best performing quality metric was determined by comparing the ability of these categories to predict 2018 to 2019 risk-adjusted outcomes. RESULTS: During the study period, 3734 patients underwent open repair (106 hospitals), and 20,680 patients underwent EVAR (183 hospitals). DAA was closely correlated with reliability-adjusted mortality rates for open repair (r = 0.94; P < .001) and EVAR (r = 0.99; P < .001). DAA also correlated with hospital case volume for open repair (r = -.54; P < .001), but not EVAR (r = 0.07; P = .3). In 2016 to 2017, most hospitals had 0% mortality (55% open repair, 57% EVAR), making it impossible to evaluate these hospitals using traditional risk-adjusted mortality rates alone. Further, zero mortality hospitals in 2016 to 2017 did not demonstrate improved outcomes in 2018 to 2019 for open repair (3.8% vs 4.6%; P = .5) or EVAR (0.8% vs 1.0%; P = .2) compared with all other hospitals. In contrast to traditional risk-adjustment, 2016 to 2017 DAA evenly divided centers into quality quartiles that predicted 2018 to 2019 performance with increased mortality rate associated with each decrement in quality quartile (Q1, 3.2%; Q2, 4.0%; Q3, 5.1%; Q4, 6.0%). There was a significantly higher risk of mortality at worst quartile open repair hospitals compared with best quartile hospitals (odds ratio, 2.01; 95% confidence interval, 1.07-3.76; P = .03). Using 2016 to 2019 DAA to define quality, highest quality quartile open repair hospitals had lower median DAA compared with lowest quality quartile hospitals (-1.18 DAA vs +1.32 DAA; P < .001), correlating with lower median reliability-adjusted mortality rates (3.6% vs 5.1%; P < .001). CONCLUSIONS: Adjustment for differences in hospital volume is essential when measuring hospital-level outcomes. Earned outcomes accurately categorize hospital quality and correlate with reliability-adjustment but are easier to calculate and interpret. From 2016 to 2019, highest quality open AAA repair hospitals prevented >40 perioperative deaths compared with the average hospital, and >80 perioperative deaths compared with lowest quality hospitals.

Short-Term Complications and Mortality Following Open Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Repair by a Single High-Volume Surgeon.

INTRODUCTION: Although endovascular repair is now considered the first-line surgical treatment for abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAAs), some surgeons maintain a high volume of open aortic repairs (OARs) with very good outcomes. This study examines postoperative 30-d and 12-mo mortality and in-hospital complications from a single surgeon who performed 316 elective OARs for unruptured AAAs over a 10-y period. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study was performed for all patients who underwent elective OAR for unruptured AAAs between April 1st, 2007, and March 31st, 2017, at a single community center in Quebec, Canada. The primary outcome was the incidence of all-cause 30-d and 12-mo mortality in patients undergoing OAR. Binomial logistic and linear regressions were performed to examine whether operative time correlated with postoperative outcomes. RESULTS: There were 316 patients included: most of whom were male (74.4%), with a mean age of 70 y, and a mean AAA diameter of 59.8 mm. Most patients had a low-to-intermediate predicted risk of postoperative major cardiovascular complications, myocardial infarction, or in-hospital mortality. At the time of OAR, 95.6% of patients were asymptomatic, 70.9% had a tube graft repair, and very few required suprarenal aortic clamping (1.6%). The mean operative time was 101 min, and the median length of hospital stay was six days. One patient died in hospital or within 30 d of surgery (0.3%), and 7 patients had died 12 mo after surgery (2.2%). All-cause mortality was 27.5% (87 patients) over a median follow-up of 5.5 y. Twenty-five percent of patients suffered any in-hospital complication postoperatively, and 18 (5.7%) patients suffered a major cardiac complication. The operative time was significantly associated with increased risk of any in-hospital complication (OR 1.02, 95% CI [1.01, 1.03], P = 0.001), reintervention (OR 1.04, 95% CI [1.02, 1.06], P = 0.001), and length of stay in hospital (ß = 0.063, 95% CI [0.01, 0.11], P = 0.044) or intensive care unit (ß = 0.043, 95% CI [0.01, 0.08], P = 0.021). There was no association between operative time and mortality at any time point. CONCLUSIONS: Favorable postoperative outcomes can be achieved with OAR as the first-line surgical management of unruptured asymptomatic AAAs when performed by an experienced high-volume surgeon in appropriately selected patients with favorable perioperative risk factors.

The usefulness of contrast-enhanced subtraction magnetic resonance imaging for detecting endoleaks after endovascular aortic repair with prophylactic intraoperative sac embolization.

BACKGROUND: Metallic and hyperdense artifacts and T1-shortening substances in the abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) sac generated by embolic materials and lipiodol pose challenges in the identification of endoleaks on follow-up computed tomography (CT) or magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). PURPOSE: To evaluate the usefulness of contrast-enhanced subtraction MRI (CES-MRI) for detecting endoleaks after endovascular abdominal aortic aneurysm repair (EVAR) with intraoperative AAA sac embolization compared with CE-CT, this study was conducted. MATERIAL AND METHODS: In this study, 28 consecutive patients who underwent EVAR with prophylactic AAA sac embolization were included. All patients underwent CES-MRI and CE-CT to detect endoleaks. The definitive diagnosis of endoleaks was a consensus reading of CE-CT and CES-MRI by two certified radiologists, in addition to angiography or reproducible radiological findings in the observational examination. Analysis was performed to evaluate which examination was better for detecting endoleaks. RESULTS: The sensitivity, specificity, and area under the curve of CE-CT and CES-MRI according to observer 1 were 50%, 100%, and 0.813 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.625-1.00) and 100%, 95%, and 0.997 (95% CI = 0.984-1.00), respectively, and those according to observer 2 were 50%, 100%, and 0.750 (95% CI = 0.514-0.986) and 100%, 95%, and 0.969 (95% CI = 0.903-1.00), respectively. Intolerable artifacts were significantly observed on CE-CT. The severity of the artifacts did not depend on the stent graft on CT and MRI. CONCLUSION: Although no significant difference was observed, CES-MRI tended to have better accuracy for endoleak detection in EVAR with intraoperative AAA sac embolization than CE-CT.

Can HALP score predict post-contrast acute kidney injury and 6-year mortality in patients undergoing endovascular abdominal aneurysm repair?

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study is to investigate the relationship between HALP score and post-contrast acute kidney injury (PC-AKI) and average 6-year mortality in patients undergoing endovascular abdominal aortic aneurysm repair (EVAR). METHODS: 125 patients who underwent EVAR between January 2015 and December 2020 were included in our study. HALP score was calculated with the formula "hemoglobin × albumin × lymphocyte count/platelet count." In the first phase of the study, two groups were developed: those who developed PC-AKI and those who did not. In the second stage, statistical analysis was performed by creating two groups: average 6-year mortality and survivors group. RESULTS: HALP score was found to be lower in the PC-AKI group [26.12 (14-61.54) versus 40.53 (7.22-103.61); p < .001]. Low HALP score was found to be both a dependent and independent predictor of the development of PC-AKI (p = .019). HALP score was also found to be lower in the mortality group compared to the survivors [28.97 (12.6-103.61) versus 40.81 (7.22-99) p = .004]. Low HALP score was found to be only a dependent predictor of mortality. The development of PC-AKI was found to be an independent predictor of mortality (p = .042). CONCLUSIONS: The HALP score, which can be calculated with a simple formula, can be used to predict PC-AKI and medium-long-term mortality in EVAR patients.

Using machine learning to predict outcomes following open abdominal aortic aneurysm repair.

OBJECTIVE: Prediction of outcomes following open abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) repair remains challenging with a lack of widely used tools to guide perioperative management. We developed machine learning (ML) algorithms that predict outcomes following open AAA repair. METHODS: The Vascular Quality Initiative (VQI) database was used to identify patients who underwent elective open AAA repair between 2003 and 2023. Input features included 52 preoperative demographic/clinical variables. All available preoperative variables from VQI were used to maximize predictive performance. The primary outcome was in-hospital major adverse cardiovascular event (MACE; composite of myocardial infarction, stroke, or death). Secondary outcomes were individual components of the primary outcome, other in-hospital complications, and 1-year mortality and any reintervention. We split our data into training (70%) and test (30%) sets. Using 10-fold cross-validation, six ML models were trained using preoperative features (Extreme Gradient Boosting [XGBoost], random forest, Naïve Bayes classifier, support vector machine, artificial neural network, and logistic regression). The primary model evaluation metric was area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). Model robustness was evaluated with calibration plot and Brier score. The top 10 predictive features in our final model were determined based on variable importance scores. Performance was assessed on subgroups based on age, sex, race, ethnicity, rurality, median area deprivation index, proximal clamp site, prior aortic surgery, and concomitant procedures. RESULTS: Overall, 12,027 patients were included. The primary outcome of in-hospital MACE occurred in 630 patients (5.2%). Compared with patients without a primary outcome, those who developed in-hospital MACE were older with more comorbidities, demonstrated poorer functional status, had more complex aneurysms, and were more likely to require concomitant procedures. Our best performing prediction model for in-hospital MACE was XGBoost, achieving an AUROC of 0.93 (95% confidence interval, 0.92-0.94). Comparatively, logistic regression had an AUROC of 0.71 (95% confidence interval, 0.70-0.73). For secondary outcomes, XGBoost achieved AUROCs between 0.84 and 0.94. The calibration plot showed good agreement between predicted and observed event probabilities with a Brier score of 0.05. These findings highlight the excellent predictive performance of the XGBoost model. The top three predictive features in our algorithm for in-hospital MACE following open AAA repair were: (1) coronary artery disease; (2) American Society of Anesthesiologists classification; and (3) proximal clamp site. Model performance remained robust on all subgroup analyses. CONCLUSIONS: Open AAA repair outcomes can be accurately predicted using preoperative data with our ML models, which perform better than logistic regression. Our automated algorithms can help guide risk-mitigation strategies for patients being considered for open AAA repair to improve outcomes.

The Contemporary Impact of Body Mass Index on Open Aortic Aneurysm Repair.

INTRODUCTION: The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has deemed obesity a national epidemic and contributor to other leading causes of death including heart disease, stroke, and diabetes. Accordingly, the role of body mass index (BMI) and its impact on surgical outcomes has been a focus of persistent investigation. The purpose of this study was to quantify the effect of BMI on open abdominal aortic aneurysm repair (oAAA) outcomes in contemporary practice. METHODS: All elective oAAAs in the VQI (2010-2021) were identified. End-points included 30-day death, in-hospital complications and 1-year mortality. Patients were stratified into four BMI cohorts (BMI<18.5, 18.5≤BMI<25, 25≤BMI<30, BMI≥30). Spline interpolation was used to explore a potential non-linear association between BMI and perioperative mortality. Mixed-effects Cox regression was used to assess the association between BMI and 1-year survival. RESULTS: 9,479 patients underwent oAAA over the study interval (median age-70, 74%-male, BMI 27±6). Lower BMI patients(<18.5) compared to higher BMI(>30) patients were more likely to be women (53% vs. 32%;p<.0001), current smokers(65% vs. 50%;p<.0001), and have COPD(58% vs. 37%;p<.0001). In contrast, an increased BMI was associated with a greater prevalence of diabetes and CAD (DM-26% vs. 6%;p<.0001; CAD-27% vs. 20%;p=.01). There was no difference in cross-clamp position or visceral/renal bypass between groups, though low BMI patients necessitated more frequent infrainguinal bypass(5% vs. 2%;p=.0002). 30-day mortality and in-hospital complications were greater among low BMI patients(30-day mortality:12% vs. 4%;p<.0001;complications-47% vs. 37%;p<.0001). Interestingly, low BMI conferred a nearly 2-fold increase in observed pulmonary complications(18% vs. 11%;p<.0001). Surgical site infections were twice as common among the lowest and highest BMI groups(4% vs. 2%;p<.0001). 1-year mortality was greatest among low BMI patients(23% vs. 9%;p<.0001). Adjusted spline-fit analysis demonstrated increased mortality among patients with BMI<21 or >34(BMI<18.5-HR 2.1, 95%CI 1.6-2.8;p<.0001; BMI>34-HR 1.3, 95%CI 1.1-1.6;p=.009). CONCLUSION: Both low (<18.5) and high (>34) BMI were associated with increased oAAA mortality in current practice. Despite the perception that obesity confers substantial surgical risk during oAAA, diminished BMI was associated with a 3-fold increase in 30-day and 1-year mortality. It appears that BMI extremes are distinct proxies for differential clinical phenotypes and should inform risk stratification for oAAA repair.

Impact of Medicaid expansion on outcomes after abdominal aortic aneurysm repair.

OBJECTIVE: Lack of insurance has been independently associated with an increased risk of in-hospital mortality after abdominal aortic aneurysm repair, possibly due to worse control of comorbidities and delays in diagnosis and treatment. Medicaid expansion has improved insurance rates and access to care, potentially benefiting these patients. We sought to assess the association between Medicaid expansion and outcomes after abdominal aortic aneurysm repair. METHODS: A retrospective analysis of Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project State Inpatient Databases data from 14 states between 2012 and 2018 was conducted. The sample was restricted to first-record abdominal aortic aneurysm repairs in adults under age 65 in states that expanded Medicaid on January 1, 2014 (Medicaid expansion group) or had not expanded before December 31, 2018 (non-expansion group). The Medicaid expansion and non-expansion groups were compared between pre-expansion (2012-2013) and post-expansion (2014-2018) time periods to assess baseline demographic and operative differences. We used difference-in-differences multivariable logistic regression adjusted for patient factors, open vs endovascular repair, and standard errors clustered by state. Our primary outcome was in-hospital mortality. Outcomes were stratified by insurance type. RESULTS: We examined 8995 patients undergoing abdominal aortic aneurysm repair, including 3789 (42.1%) in non-expansion states and 5206 (57.9%) in Medicaid expansion states. Rates of Medicaid insurance were unchanged in non-expansion states but increased in Medicaid expansion states post-expansion (non-expansion: 10.9% to 9.8%; P = .346; expansion: 9.7% to 19.7%; P < .001). One in 10 patients from both non-expansion and Medicaid expansion states presented with ruptured aneurysms, which did not change over time. Rates of open repair decreased in both non-expansion and Medicaid expansion states over time (non-expansion: 25.1% to 19.2%; P < .001; expansion: 25.2% to 18.4%; P < .001). On adjusted difference-in-differences analysis between expansion and non-expansion states pre-to post-expansion, Medicaid expansion was associated with a 1.02% absolute reduction in in-hospital mortality among all patients (95% confidence interval, -1.87% to -0.17%; P = .019). Additionally, among patients who were either on Medicaid or were uninsured (ie, the patients most likely to be impacted by Medicaid expansion), a larger 4.17% decrease in in-hospital mortality was observed (95% confidence interval, -6.47% to -1.87%; P < .001). In contrast, no significant difference-in-difference in mortality was observed for privately insured patients. CONCLUSIONS: Medicaid expansion was associated with decreased in-hospital mortality after abdominal aortic aneurysm repair among all patients and particularly among patients who were either on Medicaid or were uninsured. Our results provide support for improved access to care for patients undergoing abdominal aortic aneurysm repair through Medicaid expansion.

Identifying Patients at High Risk for Post-EVAR Aneurysm Sac Growth.

PURPOSE: Post-EVAR (endovascular aneurysm repair) aneurysm sac growth can be seen as therapy failure as it is a risk factor for post-EVAR aneurysm rupture. This study sought to identify preoperative patient predictors for developing post-EVAR aneurysm sac growth. MATERIAL AND METHODS: A systematic review was conducted to select potential predictive preoperative factors for post-EVAR sac growth (including a total of 34.886 patients), which were evaluated by a retrospective single-center analysis of patients undergoing EVAR between 2009 and 2019 (N=247) with pre-EVAR computed tomography scans and at least 1 year follow-up. The primary study outcome was post-EVAR abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) sac enlargement (≥5 mm diameter increase). Multivariate Cox regression and Kaplan-Meier survival curves were constructed. RESULTS: Potential correlative factors for post-EVAR sac growth included in the cohort analysis were age, sex, anticoagulants, antiplatelets, renal insufficiency, anemia, low thrombocyte count, pulmonary comorbidities, aneurysm diameter, neck diameter, neck angle, neck length, configuration of intraluminal thrombus, common iliac artery diameter, the number of patent lumbar arteries, and a patent inferior mesenteric artery. Multivariate analysis showed that infrarenal neck angulation (hazard ratio, 1.014; confidence interval (CI), 1.001-1.026; p=0.034) and the number of patent lumbar arteries (hazard ratio, 1.340; CI, 1.131-1.588; p<0.001) were associated with post-EVAR growth. Difference in estimated freedom from post-EVAR sac growth for patients with ≥4 patent lumbar arteries versus <4 patent lumbar arteries became clear after 2 years: 88.5% versus 100%, respectively (p<0.001). Of note, 31% of the patients (n=51) with ≥4 patent lumbar arteries (n=167) developed post-EVAR sac growth. In our cohort, the median maximum AAA diameter was 57 mm (interquartile range [IQR] = 54-62) and the median postoperative follow-up time was 54 months (IQR = 34-79). In all, 23% (n=57) of the patients suffered from post-EVAR growth. The median time for post-EVAR growth was 37 months (IQR = 24-63). In 46 of the 57 post-EVAR growth cases (81%), an endoleak was observed; 2.4% (n=6) of the patients suffered from post-EVAR rupture. The total mortality in the cohort was 24% (n=60); 4% (n=10) was AAA related. CONCLUSIONS: This study showed that having 4 or more patent lumbar arteries is an important predictive factor for postoperative sac growth in patients undergoing EVAR. CLINICAL IMPACT: This study strongly suggests that having 4 or more patent lumbar arteries should be included in preoperative counseling for EVAR, in conjunction to the instructions for use (IFU).

Systematic Review of the Effect of Cerebrospinal Fluid Drainage on Outcomes After Endovascular Descending Thoracic/Thoraco-Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Repair.

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to investigate whether prophylactic use of cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) drainage in endovascular descending thoracic aortic aneurysm (DTAA) and thoraco-abdominal aortic aneurysm (TAAA) repair contributes to a lower rate of post-operative spinal cord ischaemia (SCI). DATA SOURCES: MEDLINE, Embase, and CINAHL. REVIEW METHODS: A literature review was conducted in accordance with PRISMA guidelines (PROSPERO registration no. CRD42021245893). Risk of bias was assessed through the Newcastle-Ottawa scale (NOS), and the certainty of evidence was graded using the GRADE approach. A proportion meta-analysis was conducted to calculate the pooled rate and 95% confidence interval (CI) of both early and late onset SCI. Pooled outcome estimates were calculated using the odds ratio (OR) and associated 95% CI. The primary outcome was SCI, both early and lateonset. Secondary outcomes were complications of CSF drainage, length of hospital stay, and peri-operative (30 day or in hospital) mortality rates. RESULTS: Twenty-eight observational, retrospective studies were included, reporting 4 814 patients (2 599 patients with and 2 215 without CSF drainage). The NOS showed a moderate risk of bias. The incidence of SCI was similar in patients with CSF drainage (0.05, 95% CI 0.03 ‒ 0.08) and without CSF drainage (0.05, 95% CI 0.00 ‒ 0.14). No significant decrease in SCI was found when using CSF drainage (OR 0.67, 95% CI 0.29 ‒ 1.55, p = .35). The incidence rate of CSF drainage related complication was 0.10 (95% CI 0.04 ‒ 0.19). The 30 day and in hospital mortality rate with CSF drainage was 0.08 (95% CI 0.05 ‒ 0.12). The 30 day and in hospital mortality rate without CSF drainage and comparison with late mortality and length of hospital stay could not be determined due to lack of data. The quality of evidence was considered very low. CONCLUSION: Pre-operative CSF drainage placement was not related to a favourable outcome regarding SCI rate in endovascular TAAA and DTAA repair. Due to the low quality of evidence, no clear recommendation on pre-operative use of CSF drainage placement can be made.

Early Relative Growth Rate of Abdominal Aortic Aneurysms and Future Risk of Rupture or Repair.

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to test whether the relative growth rate of subthreshold abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAAs) in the first 24 months of surveillance predicts the risk of future rupture or repair. METHODS: This was a single centre retrospective observational analysis of all small (< 45 mm diameter) and medium (45 - 54 mm in men, 45 - 50 mm in women) AAAs entered into ultrasound surveillance between January 2002 and December 2019, which received ≥ 24 months of surveillance. Relative growth rates were calculated from measurements taken in the first 24 months of surveillance. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to estimate intervention and rupture free proportions five years following diagnosis for AAAs growing by < 5% and by ≥ 5% in the first 24 months of surveillance. Multivariable Cox regression analysis was used to further analyse this relationship by adjusting for factors found to be significantly associated with outcome in univariable analysis. RESULTS: A total of 556 patients with AAAs (409 men, 147 women) were followed for ≥ 24 months. This included 431 small AAAs. Of these, 109 (25.3%) grew by < 5% in the first 24 months of surveillance and had a cumulative event free proportion of 0.98 ± 0.05 at five years compared with 0.78 ± 0.05 for the ≥ 5% growth group (p < .001). Of 125 medium AAAs, 26 (20.8%) grew by < 5% in the first 24 months of surveillance and had a cumulative event free proportion of 0.73 ± 0.11 at five years compared with 0.29 ± 0.13 for the ≥ 5% growth group (p = .024). Baseline diameter and early relative growth rate were strongly and independently predictive of future intervention or rupture with hazard ratios of 9.16 (95% CI 5.98 - 14.03, p < .001) and 4.46 (95% CI 2.45 - 8.14, p < .001), respectively. CONCLUSION: The results suggest that slow expansion of small (< 45 mm) AAAs observed over an isolated 24 month period is indicative of a very low risk of rupture or repair in the medium term. Isolated growth rates may be a useful tool with which to triage low risk AAAs and prevent unnecessary surveillance.

The acute impact of baseline renal function and contrast medium volume/estimated glomerular filtration rate ratio on reduced renal function following endovascular abdominal aortic aneurysm repair.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to determine the acute impact of baseline serum creatinine, estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), and contrast medium volume (CMV) on the incidence of reduced renal function (RRF) after endovascular abdominal aortic aneurysm repair (EVAR). We aimed to determine if the CMV/eGFR ratio was a predictor of RRF. METHODS: This study is a retrospective review of EVAR patients in the Society for Vascular Surgery/Vascular Quality Initiative (SVS/VQI) from January 2015 to August 2020. Reduced renal function was defined as > 0.3 mg/dl (26.5 µmol/L), 50% increase from baseline, and temporary or permanent dialysis. Receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve analyses were conducted for serum creatinine, eGFR, contrast volume, fluid volume, and CMV/eGFR ratio. Two data sets (training and test) were developed followed by multivariate analyses. RESULTS: SVS/VQI data for EVAR contained 38,701 records, of which 30,539 were divided into training (n = 18,283; 60%) and test (n = 12,256; 40%) data sets. RRF rate for the training set was 3.6% (n = 667) and 3.4% (n = 420) for the test data. RRF patients included more females (29.4 vs 19.0%, p < 0.001), were older in age (75.6 + 8.4 vs 73.3 + 8.7 years), had more congestive heart failure (22.3 vs 12.2%, p < 0.001), and more COPD (42.0 vs 34.2%, p < 0.001). An ROC analysis revealed that eGRF, creatinine, contrast, intravenous fluid, and contrast medium volume (CMV)/eGFR ratio were all significantly (p < 0.05) correlated with RRF. The eGFR and CMV/eGFR ratio had the largest area under the curve, (0.26) and (0.65), respectively, while fluid had the lowest (0.54). Negative predictive values were 93.7 (CMV/eGFR), 93.9 (creatinine), 94.2 (eGFR), 92.8 (contrast), and 92.6 (intravenous fluid). Multivariate analysis of the training data set resulted in the CMV/eGFR ratio as an independent predictor of RRF (odds ratio, OR: 1.9 with 95% CI: 1.6, 2.2, p < 0.015). For the test data, the CMV/eGFR ratio was an independent predictor of RRF (OR: 1.8, CI: 1.4 to 2.2, p < 0.001) as well as several other variables. CONCLUSION: RRF after EVAR is a dreaded and potentially devastating complication. Baseline serum creatinine, eGFR, contrast medium volume, and the ratio (CMV/eGFR) were all significantly associated with RRF. The optimal cut-off value for the CMV/eGFR ratio, ≤ 2, provides an easy-to-use equation to provide a suggested contrast target based on initial renal function with caution applied for high-risk patients.

Bursting Heart Syndrome: A Rare Case Of Aortocaval Fistula Repair.

In this case report we will discuss the case of a 47-year-old woman who presented with abdominal pain, nausea, oliguria and right heart failure. A Computed Tomography (CT) aortogram revealed a fistulous abdominal aortic aneurysm. The objective of this study is to discuss the haemodynamic changes regarding aortocaval fistula and consider various management options. A literature search was undertaken on PubMed using appropriate search terms. Case series and reviews reporting presentation, diagnosis and operative management of aortocaval fistula were selected and discussed. We reached a conclusion that early identification improves surgical planning and reduces mortality. Major abdominal arteriovenous fistula repair appears to be a safer and more successful therapy with positive short and midterm outcomes. Aortocaval fistula care requires a more extensive patient series, so even better conclusions can be drawn.

Contemporary indications for open abdominal aortic aneurysm repair in the endovascular era.

OBJECTIVE: Despite the emergence of endovascular aneurysm repair (EVAR) as the most common approach to abdominal aortic aneurysm repair, open aneurysm repair (OAR) remains an important option. This study seeks to define the indications for OAR in the EVAR era and how these indicatioxns effect outcomes. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study was performed of all OAR at a single institution from 2004 to 2019. Preoperative computed tomography scans and operative records were assessed to determine the indication for OAR. These reasons were categorized into anatomical contraindications, systemic factors (connective tissue disorders, contraindication to contrast dye), and patient or surgeon preference (patients who were candidates for both EVAR and OAR). Perioperative and long-term outcomes were compared between the groups. RESULTS: We included 370 patients in the analysis; 71.6% (265/370) had at least one anatomic contraindication to EVAR and 36% had two or more contraindications. The most common anatomic contraindications were short aortic neck length (51.6%), inadequate distal seal zone (19.2%), and inadequate access vessels (15.7%). The major perioperative complication rate was 18.1% and the 30-day mortality was 3.0%. No single anatomic factor was identified as a predictor of perioperative complications. Sixty-one patients (16.5%) underwent OAR based on patient or surgeon preference; these patients were younger, had lower incidences of coronary artery disease and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and were less likely to require suprarenal cross-clamping compared with patients who had anatomic and/or systemic contraindications to EVAR. The patient or surgeon preference group had a lower incidence of perioperative major complications (8.2% vs 20.1%; P = .034), shorter length of stay (6 days vs 8 days; P < .001) and no 30-day mortalities. The multivariable adjusted risk for 15-year mortality was lower for patient or surgeon preference patients (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.44; 95% confidence interval, 0.24-0.80; P = .007) compared with those anatomic or systemic contraindications. CONCLUSIONS: Within a population of patients who did not meet instruction for use criteria for EVAR, no single anatomic contraindication was a marker for worse outcomes with OAR. Patients who were candidates for both aortic repair approaches but elected to undergo OAR owing to patient or surgeon preference have very low 30-day mortality and morbidity, and superior long-term survival rates compared with those patients who underwent OAR owing to anatomic and/or systemic contraindications to EVAR.

Comparative analysis of open abdominal aortic aneurysm repair outcomes across national registries.

OBJECTIVE: In a recent analysis, we discovered lower mortality after open abdominal aortic aneurysm repair (OAAA) in the Society for Vascular Surgery Vascular Quality Initiative (VQI) database when compared with previously published reports of other national registries. Understanding differentials in these registries is essential for their utility because such datasets increasingly inform clinical guidelines and health policy. METHODS: The VQI, American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (NSQIP), and National Inpatient Sample (NIS) databases were queried to identify patients who had undergone elective OAAA between 2013 and 2016. χ2 tests were used for frequencies and analysis of variance for continuous variables. RESULTS: In total, data from 8775 patients were analyzed. Significant differences were seen across the baseline characteristics included. Additionally, the availability of patient and procedural data varied across datasets, with VQI including a number of procedure-specific variables and NIS with the most limited clinical data. Length of stay, primary insurer, and discharge destination differed significantly. Unadjusted in-hospital mortality also varied significantly between datasets: NIS, 5.5%; NSQIP, 5.2%; and VQI, 3.3%; P < .001. Similarly, 30-day mortality was found to be 3.5% in VQI and 5.9% in NSQIP (P < .001). CONCLUSIONS: There are fundamental important differences in patient demographic/comorbidity profiles, payer mix, and outcomes after OAAA across widely used national registries. This may represent differences in outcomes between institutions that elect to participate in the VQI and NSQIP compared with patient sampling in the NIS. In addition to avoiding direct comparison of information derived from these databases, it is critical these differences are considered when making policy decisions and guidelines based on these "real-world" data repositories.

Novel surgical quality metrics in abdominal aortic aneurysm repair.

OBJECTIVE: Existing surgical quality metrics have limited utility, are primarily used for high-mortality procedures, and often fail to account for differences in non-fatal outcomes. Our objective was to develop more comprehensive, novel surgical quality metrics, for patients undergoing abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) repair. METHODS: Non-ruptured open and endovascular AAA repair (EVAR) from the Vascular Quality Initiative database were studied, 2016-2019. A win was defined as AAA repair without major complication (in-hospital) or mortality (in-hospital or within 30 days). Centers were divided into quality quartiles based on performance in two novel win-based metrics: (1) Wins Above Average (WAA) and (2) weighted Wins Above Average (wWAA). Patient-level and center-level analyses compared demographics and outcomes between "best" and "worst" quartiles, including wins, mortality, and failure to rescue (FTR) rates. Additional patient-level analyses were performed based on center stratification into volume quartiles. Correlation in surgical quality for open repair and EVAR was determined at centers performing both procedures. RESULTS: Overall, 3683 patients underwent open repair and 21,165 patients underwent EVAR. For open repair, crude rates of win, mortality, and FTR were 62.8%, 4.2%, and 10.3%, respectively. For EVAR, crude rates for win, mortality, and FTR were 94.4%, 1.1%, and 12.3%, respectively. When stratified by wWAA, patients undergoing open repair at "best" quartile centers had a higher win rate (72.0% vs 52.7%; risk ratio [RR], 1.37; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.28-1.46) and lower mortality (3.1% vs 6.2%; RR, 0.50; 95% CI, 0.33-0.74) compared with "worst" quartile centers. Similarly, for EVAR, "best" quartile centers had a higher win rate (96.2% vs 92.1%; RR, 1.04; 95% CI, 1.03-1.05), lower mortality (0.4% vs 2.2%; RR, 0.19; 95% CI, 0.13-0.29), and a lower FTR rate (5.7% vs 17.9%; RR, 0.32; 95% CI, 0.18-0.56) compared with "worst" quartile centers. Stratification by volume showed that high-volume centers demonstrated improved wWAA for open repair (P = .04) but not for EVAR (P = .3) compared with low-volume centers. For centers that performed both open repair and EVAR, there was no correlation in quality as determined by wWAA (r = -0.056; P = .6). CONCLUSIONS: wWAA is a novel, risk-adjusted, complication-weighted surgical quality metric that also accounts for volume differences. wWAA successfully distinguishes high- and low-quality centers for both open AAA repair and EVAR. This methodology is potentially broadly applicable for measuring surgical quality.

Trends in annual open abdominal aortic surgical volumes for vascular trainees compared with annual national volumes in the endovascular era.

OBJECTIVE: A prior analysis predicted a shortfall in open abdominal aortic repair (OAR) experience for vascular trainees resulting from the rapid adoption, and increased anatomic suitability, of endovascular aortic aneurysm repair (EVAR) technology. We explored how EVAR has transformed contemporary open aortic surgical education for vascular trainees. METHODS: We examined the Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education case volumes of open abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) repair and reconstruction for aortoiliac occlusive disease via aortoiliac or femoral bypass (AFB) from integrated vascular surgery residents (VSRs) and fellows (VSFs) graduating from 2006 to 2017 and compared them to the national estimates of total OAR (open AAA repair plus AFB) in the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality National Inpatient Sample using the International Classification of Diseases, 9th and 10th revision, procedural codes. Changes over time were assessed using the χ2 test, Student's t test, and linear regression. RESULTS: During the 12-year study period, the national annual total OAR and open AAA repair estimates had decreased: total OAR by 72.5% (estimate ± standard error: 2006, 24,255 ± 1185; vs 2017, 6690 ± 274; P < .001) and open AAA repair by 84.7% (estimate ± standard error: 2006, 18,619 ± 924; vs 2017, 2850 ± 168; P < .001). The AFB estimates had decreased by 33.0% (P < .001). The percentage of total OAR, open AAA repair, and AFB performed at teaching hospitals had significantly increased, from ∼55% to 80% (P < .001 for all). A 40.9% decrease was found for open AAA repairs performed by graduating VSFs (mean, 18.6 vs 11) but only a 6.9% decrease in total OAR cases (mean, 27.6 vs 25.7) owing to increasing AFB volumes (mean, 9.0 vs 14.7). The VSR graduates had consistently logged an average of ∼10 open AAA repairs, with a 31.0% increase in total OARs (mean, 23.2 vs 30.4), again secondary to increasing AFB volumes (mean, 11.4 vs 17.5). Although an absolute decrease was found in open aortic experience for VSFs, the rate of decline for the total OAR case volumes was not significantly different after VSR programs had been established (P = .40). CONCLUSIONS: As the incidence has decreased nationally, the use of OAR has been shifting toward teaching hospitals. Although open AAA procedures for trainees have been declining with the increased use of EVAR, open aortic reconstruction for aortoiliac occlusive disease has been increasing, playing an important role in ensuring that vascular trainees continue to have satisfactory OAR experience sufficient for meeting minimum graduation requirements. Strategies to maintain and maximize the education and experience from these cases should be the top priority for vascular surgery program directors.

Surgeon volume and established hospital perioperative mortality rate together predict for superior outcomes after open abdominal aortic aneurysm repair.

BACKGROUND: In 2018, the Society for Vascular Surgery (SVS) published hospital volume guidelines for elective open abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) repair, recommending that elective open surgical repair of AAAs should be performed at centers with an annual volume of ≥10 open aortic operations of any type and a documented perioperative mortality of ≤5%. Recent work has suggested a yearly surgeon volume of at least seven open aortic cases for improved outcomes. The objective of the present study was to assess the importance of hospital volume and surgeon volume at these cut points for predicting 1-year mortality after open surgical repair of AAAs. METHODS: We evaluated patients who had undergone elective open AAA repair using the New York Statewide Planning and Research Cooperative System database from 2003 to 2014. The effect of the SVS guidelines on postoperative mortality and complications was evaluated. Confounding between the hospital and surgeon volumes was identified using mixed effects multivariate Cox proportional hazards analysis. The effect of the interactions between hospital volume, established hospital perioperative survival, and surgeon volume on postoperative outcomes was also investigated. RESULTS: The cohort consisted of 7594 elective open AAA repairs performed by 542 surgeons in 137 hospitals during the 12-year study period. Analysis of the 2018 guidelines using the Statewide Planning and Research Cooperative System database revealed 1-year and 30-day mortality rates of 9.2% (range, 8.3%-10.1%) and 3.5% (range, 2.9%-4.1%) for centers that were within the SVS guidelines and 13.6% (range, 12.5%-14.7%) and 6.9% (range, 6.1%-7.8%) for those that were outside the guidelines, respectively (P < .001 for both). Multivariate survival analysis revealed a hazard ratio for a surgeon volume of ≥7, hospital volume of ≥10, and hospital 3-year perioperative mortality of ≤5% of 0.80 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.70-0.93; P = .003), 0.91 (95% CI, 0.77-1.08; P = .298), and 0.72 (95% CI, 0.62-0.82; P < .001), respectively. Additionally, procedures performed by surgeons with a yearly average volume of open aortic operations of at least seven and at hospitals with an established elective open AAA repair perioperative mortality rate of ≤5% showed improved 1-year (33.2% relative risk reduction; P < .001) and 30-day (P = .001) all-cause survival and improved postoperative complication rates. CONCLUSIONS: These data have demonstrated that centers that meet the SVS AAA volume guidelines are associated with improved 1-year and 30-day all-cause survival. However, the results were confounded by surgeon volume. A surgeon open aortic volume of at least seven procedures and an established hospital perioperative mortality of ≤5% each independently predicted for 1-year survival after open AAA repair, with the hospital volume less important. These results indicate that surgeons with an annual volume of at least seven open aortic operations of any type should perform elective open AAA repair at centers with a documented perioperative mortality of ≤5%.

Short-Term Concerns Primarily Determine Patient Preference for Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Repair.

INTRODUCTION: Abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) repair may be performed through open or endovascular approaches, but the factors influencing a patient's repair-type preference are not well characterized. Here we performed a qualitative analysis to better understand factors influencing patient preference within the Preference for Open Versus Endovascular Repair of AAA Trial. METHODS: Open-ended responses regarding primary (n = 21) and secondary (n = 47) factors influencing patient preference underwent qualitative analysis using the constant comparative method with iterative reviews. Codes were used to generate themes and themes grouped into categories, with each step conducted via consensus agreement between three researchers. Relative prevalence of themes were compared to ascertain trends in patient preference. RESULTS: Patient responses regarding both primary and secondary factors fell into four categories: Short-term concerns, long-term concerns, advice & experience, and other. Patients most frequently described short-term concerns (23) as their primary influence, with themes including post-op complications, hospitalization & recovery, and intraoperative concerns. Long-term concerns were more prevalent (20) as secondary factors, which included themes such as survival, and chronic management. The average age of patients voicing only long-term concerns as a primary factor was 11 years younger than those listing only short-term concerns. CONCLUSION: Short-term concerns relating to the procedure and recovery are more often the primary factor influencing patient preference, while long term concerns play a more secondary role. Long-term concerns are more often a primary factor in younger patients. Vascular surgeons should consider this information in shared decision making to reach an optimal outcome.

The Impact of Work Status and Age in Choosing Type of Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Repair.

INTRODUCTION: The PReferences for Open Versus Endovascular Repair of Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm (PROVE-AAA) trial aimed to determine the efficacy of a validated decision aid to enable better alignment between patient preference and their ultimate repair. We sought to determine the key factors influencing the decision-making of veterans for endovascular repair of abdominal aortic aneurysm (EVAR) or open surgical repair (OSR). METHODS: A total of 235 veterans in the PROVE-AAA trial were asked their information sources regarding repairs, employment status, and preferred intervention. Answers were coded and analyzed using conventional content analysis to generate nonoverlapping themes, then stratified by employment status. RESULTS: Forty-two patients (17.8% of enrollees) provided their source of information for OSR prior to using a decision aid. 81% of retired veterans were greater than 70 y old, while 58% of nonretired veterans were greater than 70 (P = 0.003). The most common information source was from a vascular surgeon/professional or unspecified MD/other health professionals (51.4%), while sources from outside this group made up the remaining 48.5%. The most preferred procedure was EVAR. However, nonretired individuals were more likely to prefer OSR. These data on information source and preferred procedure were similar in patients who provided their source for EVAR. CONCLUSIONS: Veterans in the PROVE-AAA study were more likely to be retired and more likely to rely on information from an unspecified MD/other health professionals for EVAR. Although both retired and nonretired veterans preferred EVAR the most, nonretired veterans were more likely to prefer OSR despite being younger.

Midterm Outcomes of Endovascular Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Repair with Prevention of type 2 Endoleak by Intraoperative Aortic Side Branch Coil Embolization.

OBJECTIVE: The midterm results of endovascular abdominal aortic aneurysm repair (EVAR) with aortic side branch coil embolization during EVAR was evaluated. METHODS: Our center began coil embolization for all patent inferior mesenteric artery (IMA) and lumbar artery (LA) with an inner diameter more than 2.0 mm during EVAR since June 2015. When four or more LA were patent, coil embolization for LA with inner diameter 2.0 mm or less was done. EVAR without aortic side branches coil embolization was performed for 59 patients prior to June 2015 (control group) and 79 patients underwent EVAR with coil embolization during EVAR (coil group). The success rate of coil embolization for IMA and LA was evaluated in coil group. The frequency of type 2 endoleak (T2EL), freedom from aneurysm sac expansion (5 mm or more) rate and the rate of the aneurysm sac shrinkage (10 mm or more) were compared between the coil and control groups. Additionally, multiple logistic regression analysis for all patients was conducted to analyze whether IMA patency and the number of patent lumbar artery at the end of EVAR were the risk factors of the aneurysm sac expansion of 5 mm or more. RESULTS: The success rate of IMA coil embolization was 96.4% and that of LA was 74.5%. Compared to the control group, the frequency of T2EL was significantly lower in coil group at 7 days (1.3% vs. 60.4%, P <0.0001) and at 6 months (2.1% vs 38.2%, P <0.0001) after EVAR. The freedom from aneurysm sac expansion rate was significantly better in the coil group at 5 years (100% in coil group and 65.2% in control group, P = 0.002). The rate of aneurysm sac shrinkage was significantly better in coil group (15.5% vs. 2.0% at 1 year, 42.8% vs. 6.3% at 2 years and 53.4% vs. 17.8% at 3 years, p = 0.0007). The risk of aneurysm sac expansion of 5 mm or more was estimated to be 11 times greater when the IMA was patent, and 4.9 times greater when 3 or more LAs were patent at the end of EVAR. CONCLUSION: When IMA was occluded and the number of patent LA became 2 or less by aortic side branch coil embolization during EVAR, favorable mid-term results were safely obtained and good long-term result could be expected with EVAR.