The importance of internal climate variability in climate impact projections.

Uncertainty in climate projections is driven by three components: scenario uncertainty, intermodel uncertainty, and internal variability. Although socioeconomic climate impact studies increasingly take into account the first two components, little attention has been paid to the role of internal variability, although underestimating this uncertainty may lead to underestimating the socioeconomic costs of climate change. Using large ensembles from seven coupled general circulation models with a total of 414 model runs, we partition the climate uncertainty in classic dose-response models relating county-level corn yield, mortality, and per-capita gross domestic product to temperature in the continental United States. The partitioning of uncertainty depends on the time frame of projection, the impact model, and the geographic region. Internal variability represents more than 50% of the total climate uncertainty in certain projections, including mortality projections for the early 21st century, although its relative influence decreases over time. We recommend including uncertainty due to internal variability for many projections of temperature-driven impacts, including early-century and midcentury projections, projections in regions with high internal variability such as the Upper Midwest United States, and impacts driven by nonlinear relationships.

The response of non-point source pollution to climate change in an orchard-dominant coastal watershed.

China is the largest global orchard distribution area, where high fertilization rates, complex terrain, and uncertainties associated with future climate change present challenges in managing non-point source pollution (NPSP) in orchard-dominant growing areas (ODGA). Given the complex processes of climate, hydrology, and soil nutrient loss, this study utilized an enhanced Soil and Water Assessment Tool model (SWAT-CO2) to investigate the impact of future climate on NPSP in ODGA in a coastal basin of North China. Our investigation focused on climate-induced variations in hydrology, nitrogen (N), and phosphorus (P) losses in soil, considering three Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) climate scenarios: SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5. Research results indicated that continuous changes in CO2 levels significantly influenced evapotranspiration (ET) and water yield in ODGA. Influenced by sandy soils, nitrate leaching through percolation was the principal pathway for N loss in the ODGA. Surface runoff was identified as the primary pathway for P loss. Compared to the reference period (1971-2000), under three future climate scenarios, the increase in precipitation of ODGA ranged from 15% to 28%, while the growth rates of P loss and surface runoff were the most significant, both exceeding 120%. Orchards in the northwest basin proved susceptible to nitrate leaching, while others were more sensitive to N and P losses via surface runoff. Implementing targeted strategies, such as augmenting organic fertilizer usage and constructing terraced fields, based on ODGA's response characteristics to future climate, could effectively improve the basin's environment.

Comparative analysis of thermal indices for modeling cold and heat stress in US dairy systems.

Quantifying the effect of thermal stress on milk yields is essential to effectively manage present and future risks in dairy systems. Despite the existence of numerous heat indices designed to communicate stress thresholds, little information is available regarding the accuracy of different indices in estimating milk yield losses from both cold and heat stress at large spatiotemporal scales. To address this gap, we comparatively analyzed the performance of existing thermal indices in capturing US milk yield response to both cold and heat stress at the national scale. We selected 4 commonly used thermal indices: the temperature-humidity index (THI), black globe humidity index (BGHI), adjusted temperature-humidity index (THIadj), and comprehensive climate index (CCI). Using a statistical panel regression model with observational and reanalysis weather data from 1981 to 2020, we systematically compared the patterns of yield sensitivities and statistical performance of the 4 indices. We found that the US state-level milk yield variability was better explained by the THIadj and CCI, which combine the effects of temperature, humidity, wind, and solar radiation. Our analysis also reveals continuous and nonlinear responses of milk yields to a range of cold to heat stresses across all 4 indices. This implies that solely relying on fixed thresholds of these indices to model milk yield changes may be insufficient to capture cumulative thermal stress. Cold extremes reduced milk yields comparably to those affected by heat extremes on the national scale. Additionally, we found large spatial variability in milk yield sensitivities, implying further limitations to the use of fixed thresholds across locations. Moreover, we found decreased yield sensitivity to thermal stress in the most recent 2 decades, suggesting adaptive changes in management to reduce weather-related risks.

China's energy-water-land system co-evolution under carbon neutrality goal and climate impacts.

China's 2060 carbon neutrality goal has significant implications for energy, water, and land systems. However, the multi-sector dynamics among China's energy-water-land system have rarely been examined explicitly. This study adopts an integrated assessment framework to simulate China's energy-water-land system co-evolution under alternative carbon neutrality scenarios and climate impacts. Results show that although the net zero emission target provides the incentive for the energy system to move away from fossil fuels, total water withdrawal will increase due to the deployment of nuclear, bioenergy, and coal power plants with carbon capture and storage. Diversifying the negative emission technologies, by leveraging direct air capture technology, can alleviate the potential water stress and land use conflicts, which would otherwise be exacerbated by large-scale deployment of afforestation and bioenergy with carbon capture and storage. Northwest and northeast regions of China are the hotspots experiencing water withdrawal increases, while Bohai Rim and coastal regions are identified to experience fierce land competition. This study demonstrates the potential for general applicability to carry out resource planning and policy evaluation from the multi-sector coordination perspective.

Environmental Health, Racial/Ethnic Health Disparity, and Climate Impacts of Inter-Regional Freight Transport in the United States.

We quantify and compare three environmental impacts from inter-regional freight transportation in the contiguous United States: total mortality attributable to PM2.5 air pollution, racial-ethnic disparities in PM2.5-attributable mortality, and CO2 emissions. We compare all major freight modes (truck, rail, barge, aircraft) and routes (∼30,000 routes). Our study is the first to comprehensively compare each route separately and the first to explore racial-ethnic exposure disparities by route and mode, nationally. Impacts (health, health disparity, climate) per tonne of freight are the largest for aircraft. Among nonaircraft modes, per tonne, rail has the largest health and health-disparity impacts and the lowest climate impacts, whereas truck transport has the lowest health impacts and greatest climate impacts─an important reminder that health and climate impacts are often but not always aligned. For aircraft and truck, average monetized damages per tonne are larger for climate impacts than those for PM2.5 air pollution; for rail and barge, the reverse holds. We find that average exposures from inter-regional truck and rail are the highest for White non-Hispanic people, those from barge are the highest for Black people, and those from aircraft are the highest for people who are mixed/other race. Level of exposure and disparity among racial-ethnic groups vary in urban versus rural areas.

How Much Will Climate Change Reduce Productivity in a High-Technology Supply Chain? Evidence from Silicon Wafer Manufacturing.

The frequency of hot days in much of the world is increasing. What is the impact of high temperatures on productivity? Can technology-based adaptation mitigate such effects of climate change? We provide some answers to these questions by examining how high outdoor temperatures affect a high-technology, precision manufacturing setting. Exploiting individual-level data on the quantity and quality of work done across 35,190 worker-shifts in a leading NYSE-listed silicon wafer maker in China, we evidence a negative effect of outdoor heat on productivity. The effects are large: in our preferred linear specification, an increase in wet bulb temperature of 10∘C causes a reduction in output of 8.3%. Temperature effects exist even though the manufacturer's work-spaces are indoors and protected by high-quality climate control systems. Results are not driven by extreme weather events and are robust to alternative modelling approaches. They illustrate the potential future adverse economic effects of climate change in most of the industrialised world.

Warming increased bark beetle-induced tree mortality by 30% during an extreme drought in California.

Quantifying the responses of forest disturbances to climate warming is critical to our understanding of carbon cycles and energy balances of the Earth system. The impact of warming on bark beetle outbreaks is complex as multiple drivers of these events may respond differently to warming. Using a novel model of bark beetle biology and host tree interactions, we assessed how contemporary warming affected western pine beetle (Dendroctonus brevicomis) populations and mortality of its host, ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa), during an extreme drought in the Sierra Nevada, California, United States. When compared with the field data, our model captured the western pine beetle flight timing and rates of ponderosa pine mortality observed during the drought. In assessing the influence of temperature on western pine beetles, we found that contemporary warming increased the development rate of the western pine beetle and decreased the overwinter mortality rate of western pine beetle larvae leading to increased population growth during periods of lowered tree defense. We attribute a 29.9% (95% CI: 29.4%-30.2%) increase in ponderosa pine mortality during drought directly to increases in western pine beetle voltinism (i.e., associated with increased development rates of western pine beetle) and, to a much lesser extent, reductions in overwintering mortality. These findings, along with other studies, suggest each degree (°C) increase in temperature may have increased the number of ponderosa pine killed by upwards of 35%-40% °C-1 if the effects of compromised tree defenses (15%-20%) and increased western pine beetle populations (20%) are additive. Due to the warming ability to considerably increase mortality through the mechanism of bark beetle populations, models need to consider climate's influence on both host tree stress and the bark beetle population dynamics when determining future levels of tree mortality.

Challenges to natural and human communities from surprising ocean temperatures.

The community of species, human institutions, and human activities at a given location have been shaped by historical conditions (both mean and variability) at that location. Anthropogenic climate change is now adding strong trends on top of existing natural variability. These trends elevate the frequency of "surprises"-conditions that are unexpected based on recent history. Here, we show that the frequency of surprising ocean temperatures has increased even faster than expected based on recent temperature trends. Using a simple model of human adaptation, we show that these surprises will increasingly challenge natural modes of adaptation that rely on historical experience. We also show that warming rates are likely to shift natural communities toward generalist species, reducing their productivity and diversity. Our work demonstrates increasing benefits for individuals and institutions from betting that trends will continue, but this strategy represents a radical shift that will be difficult for many to make.

Climate variability reduces employment in New England fisheries.

Climate change is already affecting fish productivity and distributions worldwide, yet its impact on fishing labor has not been examined. Here I directly link large-scale climate variability with fishery employment by studying the effects of sea-surface pressure changes in the North Atlantic region, whose waters are among the world's fastest warming. I find that climate shocks reduce not only regional catch and revenue in the New England fishing sector, but also ultimately county-level wages and employment among commercial harvesters. Each SD increase from the climatic mean decreases county-level fishing employment by 13%, on average. The South Atlantic region serves as a control due to its different ecological response to climate. Overall, I estimate that climate variability from 1996 to 2017 is responsible for a 16% (95% CI: 10% to 22%) decline in county-level fishing employment in New England, beyond the changes in employment attributable to management or other factors. This quantitative evidence linking climate variability and fishing labor has important implications for management in New England, which employs 20% of US commercial harvesters. Because the results are mediated by the local biology and institutions, they cannot be directly extrapolated to other regions. But they show that climate can impact fishing outcomes in ways unaccounted by management and offer a template for study of this relationship in fisheries around the world.

Climate-Induced Tradeoffs in Planning and Operating Costs of a Regional Electricity System.

Electricity grid planners design the system to supply electricity to end-users reliably and affordably. Climate change threatens both objectives through potentially compounding supply- and demand-side climate-induced impacts. Uncertainty surrounds each of these future potential impacts. Given long planning horizons, system planners must weigh investment costs against operational costs under this uncertainty. Here, we developed a comprehensive and coherent integrated modeling framework combining physically based models with cost-minimizing optimization models in the power system. We applied this modeling framework to analyze potential tradeoffs in planning and operating costs in the power grid due to climate change in the Southeast U.S. in 2050. We find that planning decisions that do not account for climate-induced impacts would result in a substantial increase in social costs associated with loss of load. These social costs are a result of under-investment in new capacity and capacity deratings of thermal generators when we included climate change impacts in the operation stage. These results highlight the importance of including climate change effects in the planning process.

Vulnerability of Arctic marine mammals to vessel traffic in the increasingly ice-free Northwest Passage and Northern Sea Route.

The fabled Northwest Passage and Northern Sea Route that were once the quests of early Western explorers are now increasingly sea ice-free, with routine vessel transits expected by midcentury. The potential impacts of this novel vessel traffic on endemic Arctic marine mammal (AMM) species are unknown despite their critical social and ecological roles in the ecosystem and widely recognized susceptibility to ice loss. We developed a vulnerability assessment of 80 subpopulations of seven AMM species to vessel traffic during the ice-free season. Vulnerability scores were based on the combined influence of spatially explicit exposure to the sea routes and a suite of sensitivity variables. More than half of AMM subpopulations (42/80) are exposed to open-water vessel transits in the Arctic sea routes. Narwhals (Monodon monoceros) were estimated to be most vulnerable to vessel impacts, given their high exposure and sensitivity, and polar bears (Ursus maritimus) were estimated to be the least vulnerable because of their low exposure and sensitivity. Regions with geographic bottlenecks, such as the Bering Strait and eastern Canadian Arctic, were characterized by two to three times higher vulnerability than more remote regions. These pinch points are obligatory pathways for both vessels and migratory AMMs, and so represent potentially high conflict areas but also opportunities for conservation-informed planning. Some of the species and regions identified as least vulnerable were also characterized by high uncertainty, highlighting additional data and monitoring needs. Our quantification of the heterogeneity of risk across AMM species provides a necessary first step toward developing best practices for maritime industries poised to advance into this rapidly changing seascape.

Climate vulnerability and resilience in the most valuable North American fishery.

Managing natural resources in an era of increasing climate impacts requires accounting for the synergistic effects of climate, ecosystem changes, and harvesting on resource productivity. Coincident with recent exceptional warming of the northwest Atlantic Ocean and removal of large predatory fish, the American lobster has become the most valuable fishery resource in North America. Using a model that links ocean temperature, predator density, and fishing to population productivity, we show that harvester-driven conservation efforts to protect large lobsters prepared the Gulf of Maine lobster fishery to capitalize on favorable ecosystem conditions, resulting in the record-breaking landings recently observed in the region. In contrast, in the warmer southern New England region, the absence of similar conservation efforts precipitated warming-induced recruitment failure that led to the collapse of the fishery. Population projections under expected warming suggest that the American lobster fishery is vulnerable to future temperature increases, but continued efforts to preserve the stock's reproductive potential can dampen the negative impacts of warming. This study demonstrates that, even though global climate change is severely impacting marine ecosystems, widely adopted, proactive conservation measures can increase the resilience of commercial fisheries to climate change.

Climate change causes critical transitions and irreversible alterations of mountain forests.

Mountain forests are at particular risk of climate change impacts due to their temperature limitation and high exposure to warming. At the same time, their complex topography may help to buffer the effects of climate change and create climate refugia. Whether climate change can lead to critical transitions of mountain forest ecosystems and whether such transitions are reversible remain incompletely understood. We investigated the resilience of forest composition and size structure to climate change, focusing on a mountain forest landscape in the Eastern Alps. Using the individual-based forest landscape model iLand, we simulated ecosystem responses to a wide range of climatic changes (up to a 6°C increase in mean annual temperature and a 30% reduction in mean annual precipitation), testing for tipping points in vegetation size structure and composition under different topography scenarios. We found that at warming levels above +2°C a threshold was crossed, with the system tipping into an alternative state. The system shifted from a conifer-dominated landscape characterized by large trees to a landscape dominated by smaller, predominantly broadleaved trees. Topographic complexity moderated climate change impacts, smoothing and delaying the transitions between alternative vegetation states. We subsequently reversed the simulated climate forcing to assess the ability of the landscape to recover from climate change impacts. The forest landscape showed hysteresis, particularly in scenarios with lower precipitation. At the same mean annual temperature, equilibrium vegetation size structure and species composition differed between warming and cooling trajectories. Here we show that even moderate warming corresponding to current policy targets could result in critical transitions of forest ecosystems and highlight the importance of topographic complexity as a buffering agent. Furthermore, our results show that overshooting ambitious climate mitigation targets could be dangerous, as ecological impacts can be irreversible at millennial time scales once a tipping point has been crossed.

Current and future impacts of drought and ozone stress on Northern Hemisphere forests.

Rising ozone (O3 ) concentrations, coupled with an increase in drought frequency due to climate change, pose a threat to plant growth and productivity which could negatively affect carbon sequestration capacity of Northern Hemisphere (NH) forests. Using long-term observations of O3 mixing ratios and soil water content (SWC), we implemented empirical drought and O3 stress parameterizations in a coupled stomatal conductance-photosynthesis model to assess their impacts on plant gas exchange at three FLUXNET sites: Castelporziano, Blodgett and Hyytiälä. Model performance was evaluated by comparing model estimates of gross primary productivity (GPP) and latent heat fluxes (LE) against present-day observations. CMIP5 GCM model output data were then used to investigate the potential impact of the two stressors on forests by the middle (2041-2050) and end (2091-2100) of the 21st century. We found drought stress was the more significant as it reduced model overestimation of GPP and LE by ~11%-25% compared to 1%-11% from O3 stress. However, the best model fit to observations at all the study sites was obtained with O3 and drought stress combined, such that the two stressors counteract the impact of each other. With the inclusion of drought and O3 stress, GPP at CPZ, BLO and HYY is projected to increase by 7%, 5% and 8%, respectively, by mid-century and by 14%, 11% and 14% by 2091-2100 as atmospheric CO2 increases. Estimates were up to 21% and 4% higher when drought and O3 stress were neglected respectively. Drought stress will have a substantial impact on plant gas exchange and productivity, off-setting and possibly negating CO2 fertilization gains in future, suggesting projected increases in the frequency and severity of droughts in the NH will play a significant role in forest productivity and carbon budgets in future.

Direct and indirect effects of regional and local climatic factors on trophic interactions in the Arctic tundra.

Climate change can impact ecosystems by reshaping the dynamics of resource exploitation for predators and their prey. Alterations of these pathways could be especially intense in ecosystems characterized by a simple trophic structure and rapid warming trends, such as in the Arctic. However, quantifying the multiple direct and indirect pathways through which climate change is likely to alter trophic interactions and their relative strength remains a challenge. Here, we aim to identify direct and indirect causal mechanisms driven by climate affecting predator-prey interactions of species sharing a tundra food web. We based our study on relationships between one Arctic predator (Arctic fox) and its two main prey - lemmings (preferred prey) and snow geese (alternate prey) - which are exposed to variable local and regional climatic factors across years. We used a combination of models mapping multiple causal links among key variables derived from a long-term dataset (21 years). We obtained several possible scenarios linking regional climate factors (Arctic oscillations) and local temperature and precipitation to the breeding of species. Our results suggest that both regional and local climate factors have direct and indirect impacts on the breeding of foxes and geese. Local climate showed a positive causal link with goose nesting success, while both regional and local climate displayed contrasted effects on the proportion of fox breeding. We found no impact of climate on lemming abundance. We observed positive relationships between lemming, fox and goose reproduction highlighting numerical and functional responses of fox to the variability of lemming abundance. Our study measures causal links and strength of interactions in a food web, quantifying both numerical response of a predator and apparent interactions between its two main prey. These results improve our understanding of the complex effects of climate on predator-prey interactions and our capacity to anticipate food web response to ongoing climate change.

Les changements climatiques peuvent avoir un impact sur les écosystèmes au travers des modifications de la dynamique d'exploitation des ressources par les prédateurs et leurs proies. Dans le cas de l'Arctique, caractérisée par un réseau trophique simple et une sensibilité marquée au réchauffement climatique, l'altération de ces relations trophiques pourrait être particulièrement importante. Cependant, la quantification des nombreux liens directs et indirects à travers lesquels les changements climatiques peuvent affecter les interactions trophiques demeure un défi. Notre objectif est d'identifier les mécanismes causaux directs et indirects, sous-tendus par le climat, affectant les interactions prédateur-proie au sein d'un réseau trophique au cœur de la toundra. Notre étude se base sur les relations entre un prédateur (renard arctique) et ses deux proies principales -le lemming (proie préférée) et la grande oie des neiges (proie alternative)- et qui subissent un accroissement des précipitations et des températures au travers des années. Nous avons utilisé une combinaison de modèles illustrant les liens causaux multiples entre les variables clés issues d'une base de données à long-terme (21 ans). Nous avons obtenu plusieurs scénarios possibles reliant les facteurs climatiques régionaux (Oscillation Arctique) et les températures et précipitations locales à la reproduction de nos 3 espèces. Nos résultats suggèrent que les facteurs climatiques régionaux et locaux présentent des impacts directs et indirects sur la reproduction du renard arctique et de l'oie des neiges. Le climat local présente un lien causal positif avec le succès de nidification de l'oie, alors que le climat local et régional démontrent un effet contrasté sur la proportion de renard en reproduction. Aucune relation entre les facteurs climatiques et l'abondance des lemmings n'a été trouvée. Nous avons observé des liens causaux positifs entre la reproduction du lemming, du renard et de l'oie, mettant en évidence les réponses numériques et fonctionnelles du renard arctique face à la variabilité de l'abondance de lemming. Notre étude est une des premières à mesurer les liens causaux et les forces d'interaction entre les espèces partageant un même réseau trophique, quantifiant ainsi la réponse numérique du prédateur et les interactions apparentes entre ses proies principales. Ces résultats améliorent notre compréhension des effets complexes du climat sur les interactions prédateur-proie et notre capacité à anticiper la réponse des réseaux trophiques aux changements climatiques en cours.

Determining climate effects on US total agricultural productivity.

The sensitivity of agricultural productivity to climate has not been sufficiently quantified. The total factor productivity (TFP) of the US agricultural economy has grown continuously for over half a century, with most of the growth typically attributed to technical change. Many studies have examined the effects of local climate on partial productivity measures such as crop yields and economic returns, but these measures cannot account for national-level impacts. Quantifying the relationships between TFP and climate is critical to understanding whether current US agricultural productivity growth will continue into the future. We analyze correlations between regional climate variations and national TFP changes, identify key climate indices, and build a multivariate regression model predicting the growth of agricultural TFP based on a physical understanding of its historical relationship with climate. We show that temperature and precipitation in distinct agricultural regions and seasons explain ∼70% of variations in TFP growth during 1981-2010. To date, the aggregate effects of these regional climate trends on TFP have been outweighed by improvements in technology. Should these relationships continue, however, the projected climate changes could cause TFP to drop by an average 2.84 to 4.34% per year under medium to high emissions scenarios. As a result, TFP could fall to pre-1980 levels by 2050 even when accounting for present rates of innovation. Our analysis provides an empirical foundation for integrated assessment by linking regional climate effects to national economic outcomes, offering a more objective resource for policy making.

Future sea level rise constrained by observations and long-term commitment.

Sea level has been steadily rising over the past century, predominantly due to anthropogenic climate change. The rate of sea level rise will keep increasing with continued global warming, and, even if temperatures are stabilized through the phasing out of greenhouse gas emissions, sea level is still expected to rise for centuries. This will affect coastal areas worldwide, and robust projections are needed to assess mitigation options and guide adaptation measures. Here we combine the equilibrium response of the main sea level rise contributions with their last century's observed contribution to constrain projections of future sea level rise. Our model is calibrated to a set of observations for each contribution, and the observational and climate uncertainties are combined to produce uncertainty ranges for 21st century sea level rise. We project anthropogenic sea level rise of 28-56 cm, 37-77 cm, and 57-131 cm in 2100 for the greenhouse gas concentration scenarios RCP26, RCP45, and RCP85, respectively. Our uncertainty ranges for total sea level rise overlap with the process-based estimates of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The "constrained extrapolation" approach generalizes earlier global semiempirical models and may therefore lead to a better understanding of the discrepancies with process-based projections.

Niche partitioning of intertidal seagrasses: evidence of the influence of substrate temperature.

The influence of soil temperature on rhizome depths of four intertidal seagrass species was investigated in central Queensland, Australia. We postulated that certain intertidal seagrass species are soil temperature-sensitive and vertically stratify rhizome depths. Below-ground vertical stratification of intertidal seagrass rhizome depths was analysed based upon microclimate (soil temperature) and microhabitat (soil type). Soil temperature profiles exhibited heat transfer from surface layers to depth that varied by microhabitat, with vertical stratification of rhizome depths between species. Halodule uninervis rhizomes maintain a narrow median soil temperature envelope; compensating for high surface temperatures by occupying deeper, cooler soil substrates. Halophila decipiens, Halophila ovalis and Zostera muelleri rhizomes are shallow-rooted and exposed to fluctuating temperatures, with broader median temperature envelopes. Halodule uninervis appears to be a niche specialist, with the two Halophila species considered as generalist niche usage species. The implications of niche use based upon soil temperature profiles and rhizome rooting depths are discussed in the context of species' thermal tolerances and below-ground biomass O2 demand associated with respiration and maintenance of oxic microshields. This preliminary evidence suggests that soil temperature interaction with rhizome rooting depths may be a factor that influences the distribution of intertidal seagrasses.

Changes in climate extremes, fresh water availability and vulnerability to food insecurity projected at 1.5°C and 2°C global warming with a higher-resolution global climate model.

We projected changes in weather extremes, hydrological impacts and vulnerability to food insecurity at global warming of 1.5°C and 2°C relative to pre-industrial, using a new global atmospheric general circulation model HadGEM3A-GA3.0 driven by patterns of sea-surface temperatures and sea ice from selected members of the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) ensemble, forced with the RCP8.5 concentration scenario. To provide more detailed representations of climate processes and impacts, the spatial resolution was N216 (approx. 60 km grid length in mid-latitudes), a higher resolution than the CMIP5 models. We used a set of impacts-relevant indices and a global land surface model to examine the projected changes in weather extremes and their implications for freshwater availability and vulnerability to food insecurity. Uncertainties in regional climate responses are assessed, examining ranges of outcomes in impacts to inform risk assessments. Despite some degree of inconsistency between components of the study due to the need to correct for systematic biases in some aspects, the outcomes from different ensemble members could be compared for several different indicators. The projections for weather extremes indices and biophysical impacts quantities support expectations that the magnitude of change is generally larger for 2°C global warming than 1.5°C. Hot extremes become even hotter, with increases being more intense than seen in CMIP5 projections. Precipitation-related extremes show more geographical variation with some increases and some decreases in both heavy precipitation and drought. There are substantial regional uncertainties in hydrological impacts at local scales due to different climate models producing different outcomes. Nevertheless, hydrological impacts generally point towards wetter conditions on average, with increased mean river flows, longer heavy rainfall events, particularly in South and East Asia with the most extreme projections suggesting more than a doubling of flows in the Ganges at 2°C global warming. Some areas are projected to experience shorter meteorological drought events and less severe low flows, although longer droughts and/or decreases in low flows are projected in many other areas, particularly southern Africa and South America. Flows in the Amazon are projected to decline by up to 25%. Increases in either heavy rainfall or drought events imply increased vulnerability to food insecurity, but if global warming is limited to 1.5°C, this vulnerability is projected to remain smaller than at 2°C global warming in approximately 76% of developing countries. At 2°C, four countries are projected to reach unprecedented levels of vulnerability to food insecurity.This article is part of the theme issue 'The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'.

Carbon choices determine US cities committed to futures below sea level.

Anthropogenic carbon emissions lock in long-term sea-level rise that greatly exceeds projections for this century, posing profound challenges for coastal development and cultural legacies. Analysis based on previously published relationships linking emissions to warming and warming to rise indicates that unabated carbon emissions up to the year 2100 would commit an eventual global sea-level rise of 4.3-9.9 m. Based on detailed topographic and population data, local high tide lines, and regional long-term sea-level commitment for different carbon emissions and ice sheet stability scenarios, we compute the current population living on endangered land at municipal, state, and national levels within the United States. For unabated climate change, we find that land that is home to more than 20 million people is implicated and is widely distributed among different states and coasts. The total area includes 1,185-1,825 municipalities where land that is home to more than half of the current population would be affected, among them at least 21 cities exceeding 100,000 residents. Under aggressive carbon cuts, more than half of these municipalities would avoid this commitment if the West Antarctic Ice Sheet remains stable. Similarly, more than half of the US population-weighted area under threat could be spared. We provide lists of implicated cities and state populations for different emissions scenarios and with and without a certain collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. Although past anthropogenic emissions already have caused sea-level commitment that will force coastal cities to adapt, future emissions will determine which areas we can continue to occupy or may have to abandon.