The relationship between group A streptococcus test positivity and clinical findings in tonsillopharyngitis in children: systematic review and meta-analysis.

PURPOSE: This study aimed to present an evidence-based conclusion through a systematic meta-analysis to distinguish clinical signs and symptoms associated with the presence of group A beta-hemolytic streptococcus, as confirmed by throat culture or rapid test, from those in cases without culture confirmation. METHODS: The study protocol has been published in PROSPERO (CRD42023450854). Studies published between January 1, 2013 and August 15, 2023 were scanned in seven databases. The methodological quality of the articles was assessed using The Joanna Briggs Institution (JBI) Cross-Sectional Studies and Cohort Studies checklist. Effect size calculations were made using fixed effects and random effects models. RESULTS: A total of 22 articles were included in the systematic review, with 14 included in the meta-analysis. The prevalence of streptococcal pharyngitis in these studies ranged from 7.3 to 44.1%. According to the meta-analysis results, a significant association was observed between GAS test positivity and the presence of tonsillar exudate, palatal petechiae, tonsillar hypertrophy, dysphagia, fever, and cervical lymphadenopathy (p < 0.05). No significant relationship was found between GAS test positivity and symptoms such as headache, sore throat, cough, absence of cough, hoarseness, scarlatiniform rash, tonsillar erythema, vomiting, rhinorrhea, and abdominal pain (p > 0.05). CONCLUSION: The findings of the meta-analysis suggest that, in addition to the Centor criteria, palatal petechiae, dysphagia, and tonsillar hypertrophy are noteworthy indicators of GAS infection. Contrary to previous studies, our meta-analysis indicates that symptoms such as headache, sore throat, cough, absence of cough, hoarseness, scarlatiniform rash, tonsillar erythema, vomiting, rhinorrhea, and abdominal pain may not be associated with streptococcal infection. Further research is needed to elucidate these findings.

External validation of the "deformity, edema, and pain in pronation" model for predicting wrist fractures.

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study is to externally validate the "Deformity, Edema, and Pain in Pronation" model, which determines the necessity for radiography in patients with wrist trauma. METHODS: This prospective, cross-sectional study was performed in a tertiary emergency department (ED). All patients admitted to the ED with wrist trauma aged 18 years and older were included in the study. Patients who did not have acute and blunt wrist trauma, those who could not be fully examined due to various reasons, and patients who did not wish to participate were excluded. Each patient was examined by their responsible physician, and imaging tests were requested based on the indications. All radiographic images were evaluated by an orthopedic surgeon who was blinded to the clinical information. This evaluation was accepted as the standard reference for diagnosing fractures. RESULTS: 391 patients were included in the study. 170 patients (43.5%) had at least one fracture. The sensitivity and specificity of the model formed in our study in predicting wrist fractures were 98.77% (95% CI: 95.61-99.85) and 27.60% (95% CI 21.82-34.00), respectively. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) on external validation of the model was 0.878 (p < 0.001; 95% CI: 0.844-0.913). With the practice of this rule, there would be a 16% decrease in X-ray imaging request, while only 0.5% patients would have missed inoperable fractures. CONCLUSION: The "deformity, edema, and pain in pronation" model is a reliable and practical clinical decision rule for determining the necessity of radiography in wrist trauma.

Etiology and characteristics of non-aneurysmal thunderclap headache presenting to an acute setting.

OBJECTIVES: To describe the characteristics and causes of non-aneurysmal thunderclap headache (TCH) and compare serious from benign underlying causes. METHODS: Retrospective cohort study of consecutive adult patients with TCH presenting to a tertiary care academic medical center between 2010 and 2020. Aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage cases were excluded. Cases were categorized into serious or benign; serious TCH was defined as any condition in which delayed diagnosis and treatment could result in neurological disability or death. Risk factors for serious TCH were analyzed. We adhere to standardized guidelines for reporting observational studies. RESULTS: A total of 932 patients presented with TCH. After exclusion of 393 patients with aneurysmal-type subarachnoid hemorrhage, 539 were included in the analysis. One-half (n = 275, 51.0 %) had a serious cause. Median age was 51 years, 69.0 % were female. Most frequent diagnoses were intracranial hemorrhage (n = 102, 18.9 %), reversible cerebral vasoconstriction syndrome (n = 97, 18.0 %), and idiopathic TCH (n = 102, 38.6 %). A multivariable logistic regression model for prediction of serious TCH included age, hypertension, migraines, recurrent TCH, level of consciousness and other clinical exam findings, and achieved an AUROC of 0.732. This score had a sensitivity of 79.9 % (95 % CI 73.5-83.5 %) for the identification of serious TCH. A 0.5-point increase in the risk score was associated with a 73 % increase in the odds of serious TCH (odds ratio 1.73, 95 % CI 1.53-1.95, p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Our study describes the relative frequency of presentation and etiologies among patients with TCH This score can aide clinicians in recognising patients with potentially serious cause of TCH, for whom additional imaging and neurological consultation is necessary.

Diagnostic test accuracy of D-dimer with or without a clinical decision rule in peripartum patients with suspected venous thromboembolism: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Pregnancy and the peripartum period is a hypercoagulable state increasing the risk of venous thromboembolism (VTE). There may be a role in utilising D-dimer in the peripartum setting. AIMS: The purpose of this review was to summarise the latest evidence regarding the diagnostic accuracy of D-dimer in the peripartum setting with or without the addition of clinical decision rules. METHODS: We searched PubMed and CENTRAL databases to identify articles that included studies of women who had suspected VTE, underwent a D-dimer index test to rule out VTE and where radiological imaging or clinical follow-up, to a minimum of 30 days, was used as the reference standard. RESULTS: We included 11 studies in the systematic review and meta-analysis. The log diagnostic odds ratio (DOR) for identifying VTE using D-dimer was 1.56 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.59-2.52). The pooled sensitivity was 87% (95% CI 76.8-93%), specificity was 63.2% (95% CI 47.1-76.7%), and the area under receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves was 0.76. We included four studies evaluating D-dimer combined with YEARS to detect VTE. The log DOR for identifying VTE using D-dimer combined with YEARS was 1.13 (95% CI 0.005-2.25). The pooled sensitivity was 89.8% (95% CI 60.2-98.1%), specificity was 65.7% (95% CI 54.7-75.2%) and the area under ROC for studies included with the YEARS clinical decision rule was 0.49. CONCLUSION: This review highlighted that D-dimer use in the peripartum period for detection of VTE had a high sensitivity and high DOR but a poor area under ROC, which may limit its use in clinical practice.

CT Use Reduction In Ostensive Ureteral Stone (CURIOUS).

INTRODUCTION: Computed tomography (CT) is performed in over 90% of patients diagnosed with ureteral stones, but only 10% of patients presenting to the emergency department (ED) with acute flank pain are hospitalized for a clinically important stone or non-stone diagnosis. Hydronephrosis can be accurately detected using point-of-care ultrasound and is a key predictor of ureteral stone and risk of subsequent complications. The absence of hydronephrosis is insufficient to exclude a stone. We created a sensitive clinical decision rule to predict clinically important ureteral stones. We hypothesized that this rule could identify patients at low risk for this outcome. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study in a random sample of 4000 adults who presented to one of 21 Kaiser Permanente Northern California EDs and underwent a CT for suspected ureteral stone from 1/1/2016 to 12/31/2020. The primary outcome was clinically important stone, defined as stone resulting in hospitalization or urologic procedure within 60 days. We used recursive partition analysis to generate a clinical decision rule predicting the outcome. We estimated the C-statistic (area under the curve), plotted the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve for the model, and calculated sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values of the model based on a risk threshold of 2%. RESULTS: Among 4000 patients, 354 (8.9%) had a clinically important stone. Our partition model resulted in four terminal nodes with risks ranging from 0.4% to 21.8%. The area under the ROC curve was 0.81 (95% CI 0.80, 0.83). Using a 2% risk cut point, a clinical decision tree including hydronephrosis, hematuria, and a history of prior stones predicted complicated stones with sensitivity 95.5% (95% CI 92.8%-97.4%), specificity 59.9% (95% CI 58.3%-61.5%), positive predictive value 18.8% (95% CI 18.1%-19.5%), and negative predictive value 99.3% (95% CI 98.8%-99.6%). CONCLUSIONS: Application of this clinical decision rule to imaging decisions would have led to 63% fewer CT scans with a miss rate of 0.4%. A limitation was the application of our decision rule only to patients who underwent CT for suspected ureteral stone. Thus, this rule would not apply to patients who were thought to have ureteral colic but did not receive a CT because ultrasound or history were sufficient for diagnosis. These results could inform future prospective validation studies.

Determining clinical predictors to identify non-specific abdominal pain and the added value of laboratory examinations: A prospective derivation study in a paediatric emergency department.

AIM: To develop a model to discriminate non-specific abdominal pain (NSAP) from organic pain in the paediatric emergency department (PED) and evaluate the added value of laboratory markers. METHODS: Prospective cohort study in an urban French PED including all patients aged ≥4 years with abdominal pain between November 2020 and May 2021. The outcome was the discrimination between NSAP (patients coded to have only "pain" or "constipation") and organic pain (all other diagnoses) using stepwise backward multivariate logistic regression method with bootstrap resampling. RESULTS: The study enrolled 246 patients. Overall, 163 patients (66.2%) had NSAP. Four variables associated with organic pain: pain in the epigastric region (OR 0.48 [0.23-0.99]), worsening pain (0.57 [0.32-0.99]), pain migration (0.42 [0.17-0.99]) and vomiting (0.47 [0.26-0.84]) were integrated in a clinical model. To discriminate NSAP with a probability of 65%, model sensitivity was 71.8% (64.9-78.7), specificity was 53.0% (42.3-63.7), and the Net Benefit (NB) was 15.4%. White Blood Count and C-reactive protein results improved discriminative capacity of the model (AUC 0.708 [0.643-0.773] vs. 0.654 [0.585-0.723], p = 0.01) with a supplementary NB of 12%. Patient follow-up showed 95% diagnostic accuracy. CONCLUSION: This study reveals a four-clinical predictor model with a NB of 15% in predicting NSAP. Validation studies are necessary.

A Cluster Randomized Trial to Reduce Missed Abusive Head Trauma in Pediatric Intensive Care Settings.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the impact of the PediBIRN (Pediatric Brain Injury Research Network) 4-variable clinical decision rule (CDR) on abuse evaluations and missed abusive head trauma in pediatric intensive care settings. STUDY DESIGN: This was a cluster randomized trial. Participants included 8 pediatric intensive care units (PICUs) in US academic medical centers; PICU and child abuse physicians; and consecutive patients with acute head injures <3 years (n = 183 and n = 237, intervention vs control). PICUs were stratified by patient volumes, pair-matched, and randomized equally to intervention or control conditions. Randomization was concealed from the biostatistician. Physician-directed, cluster-level interventions included initial and booster training, access to an abusive head trauma probability calculator, and information sessions. Outcomes included "higher risk" patients evaluated thoroughly for abuse (with skeletal survey and retinal examination), potential cases of missed abusive head trauma (patients lacking either evaluation), and estimates of missed abusive head trauma (among potential cases). Group comparisons were performed using generalized linear mixed-effects models. RESULTS: Intervention physicians evaluated a greater proportion of higher risk patients thoroughly (81% vs 73%, P = .11) and had fewer potential cases of missed abusive head trauma (21% vs 32%, P = .05), although estimated cases of missed abusive head trauma did not differ (7% vs 13%, P = .22). From baseline (in previous studies) to trial, the change in higher risk patients evaluated thoroughly (67%→81% vs 78%→73%, P = .01), and potential cases of missed abusive head trauma (40%→21% vs 29%→32%, P = .003), diverged significantly. We did not identify a significant divergence in the number of estimated cases of missed abusive head trauma (15%→7% vs 11%→13%, P = .22). CONCLUSIONS: PediBIRN-4 CDR application facilitated changes in abuse evaluations that reduced potential cases of missed abusive head trauma in PICU settings. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT03162354.

Impact of routine S100B protein assay on CT scan use in children with mild traumatic brain injury.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the impact of implementing a modified Pediatric Emergency Care Applied Research Network (PECARN) rule including the S100B protein assay for managing mild traumatic brain injury (mTBI) in children. METHODS: A before-and-after study was conducted in a paediatric emergency department of a French University Hospital from 2013 to 2015. We retrospectively included all consecutive children aged 4 months to 15 years who presented mTBI and were at intermediate risk for clinically important traumatic brain injury (ciTBI). We compared the proportions of CT scans performed and of in-hospital observations before (2013-2014) and after (2014-2015) implementation of a modified PECARN rule including the S100B protein assay. RESULTS: We included 1,062 children with mTBI (median age 4.5 years, sex ratio [F/M] 0.73) who were at intermediate risk for ciTBI: 494 (46.5%) during 2013-2014 and 568 (53.5%) during 2014-2015. During 2014-2015, S100B protein was measured in 451 (79.4%) children within 6 h after mTBI. The proportion of CT scans and in-hospital observations significantly decreased between the two periods, from 14.4 to 9.5% (p=0.02) and 73.9-40.5% (p<0.01), respectively. The number of CT scans performed to identify a single ciTBI was reduced by two-thirds, from 18 to 6 CT scans, between 2013-2014 and 2014-2015. All children with ciTBI were identified by the rules. CONCLUSIONS: The implementation of a modified PECARN rule including the S100B protein assay significantly decreased the proportion of CT scans and in-hospital observations for children with mTBI who were at intermediate risk for ciTBI.

The Primary Ciliary Dyskinesia Computed Tomography Score in Adults with Bronchiectasis: A Derivation und Validation Study.

BACKGROUND: Primary ciliary dyskinesia (PCD) is a rare genetic disorder which requires a complex diagnostic workup. Thus, an easy and widely available screening method would be helpful to identify patients who need a further diagnostic workup for PCD. OBJECTIVES: The aim of the study was to develop and validate a computed tomography (CT) score for PCD to facilitate etiological diagnosis in adults with bronchiectasis. METHOD: Chest CTs from 121 adults with bronchiectasis were scored for bronchiectasis morphology, distribution, and associated findings. Patients with and without the etiological diagnosis of PCD (46 and 75, respectively) were compared. Significantly, different imaging findings (p < 0.05) in univariate analysis were considered for multivariate analysis. Distinct findings were used to build the score. Based on this score, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was performed. The score was validated with 2 independent cohorts, another cohort from the same institution with 56 patients (28 with PCD) and an external cohort from another referral center with 172 patients (86 with PCD). RESULTS: The following parameters predicted PCD in adults with bronchiectasis and were included in the score with weighting according to their regression coefficients: 2 points were given for predominance in the middle/lower lobe, 2 points for tree-in-bud pattern, 2 points for atelectasis or prior resection of a middle/lower lobe, and 3 points for absence of emphysema and fibrosis. Situs inversus was only observed in subjects with PCD (Kartagener syndrome) and, thus, was not used in the primary ciliary dyskinesia computed tomography (PCD-CT) score as group comparisons could not be performed. ROC curve analysis revealed an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.90 (95% CI 0.85-0.96). Youden index was the highest at a threshold of >6 with a sensitivity of 83% and a specificity of 83%. In the validation cohorts, ROC curve analysis confirmed the performance of the score with an AUC of 0.83 (95% CI 0.72-0.94) in the first validation cohort and 0.79 (95% CI 0.73-0.86) in the external validation cohort. CONCLUSIONS: The PCD-CT score provides the first validated CT score for PCD and helps physicians in identifying adult bronchiectasis patients who require further diagnostic workup. Key message: The PCD-CT score provides the first validated CT score to assist physicians in identifying adult bronchiectasis patients who require a further diagnostic workup for PCD. It potentially improves earlier recognition of this rare and underdiagnosed disease.

Efficacy of the implementation of the National Emergency X-Radiography Utilization Study II decision rule to clinical practice for paediatric head injury patients.

AIM: To investigate the usefulness of the National Emergency X-Radiography Utilization Study (NEXUS) II head trauma decision rule in clinical practice for paediatric patients in a tertiary university hospital serving as the only paediatric hospital in the area. METHODS: We compared how doctors evaluated and examined patients with head injury during two time periods, before and after the introduction of NEXUS II decision rule. Multiple implementation strategies were used as follows: education, tutoring and written instructions for the use of NEXUS II. RESULTS: Two hundred and forty-four head injury patients visited the hospital before and 385 after the introduction of the NEXUS II decision rule. The number of hospital admissions (56%) and the mean duration of hospitalisation (2.5 days) remained the same during the two periods. In the NEXUS II evaluated group, there was a decrease of 40% in the number of hospital admissions. NEXUS II was applied in only 62 (16%) cases. The number of head imaging procedures remained the same. No patients with a clinically significant head injury were missed with the NEXUS II evaluation. CONCLUSION: NEXUS II was ineffective as our implementation failed. When used, NEXUS II reduced expenses in our study population by decreasing the number of hospital admissions.

Utility of the Emergency Severity Index by Accuracy of Interrater Agreement by Expert Triage Nurses in a Simulated Scenario in Japan: A Randomized Controlled Trial.

OBJECTIVE: The Emergency Severity Index (ESI) is a highly reliable and valid triage scale that is widely used in emergency departments in not only English language regions but also other countries. The Japan Triage and Acuity Scale (JTAS) is frequently used for emergency patients, and the ESI has not been evaluated against the JTAS in Japan. This study aimed to examine the decision accuracy of the ESI for simulated clinical scenarios among nursing specialists in Japan compared with the JTAS. METHOD: A parallel group randomized trial was conducted. In total, 23 JTAS-trained triage nurses from 10 Japanese emergency departments were randomly assigned to the ESI or the JTAS group. Nurses independently assigned triage categories to 80 emergency cases for the assessment of interrater agreement. RESULTS: Interrater agreement between the expert and triage nurses was κ = 0.82 (excellent) in the ESI group and κ = 0.74 (substantial) in the JTAS group. In addition, interrater agreement by acuity was level 2 = 0.42 (moderate) in the ESI group and level 2 = 0.31 (fair) in the JTAS group. Interrater agreement for triage decisions was classified in a higher category in the ESI group than in the JTAS Scale group at level 2. Triage decisions based on the ESI in Japan maintained the same level of interrater agreement and sensitivity as those in other countries. CONCLUSION: These findings suggest that the ESI can be introduced in Japan, despite its different emergency medical background compared with other countries.

Statistical inference for net benefit measures in biomarker validation studies.

Referral strategies based on risk scores and medical tests are commonly proposed. Direct assessment of their clinical utility requires implementing the strategy and is not possible in the early phases of biomarker research. Prior to late-phase studies, net benefit measures can be used to assess the potential clinical impact of a proposed strategy. Validation studies, in which the biomarker defines a prespecified referral strategy, are a gold standard approach to evaluating biomarker potential. Uncertainty, quantified by a confidence interval, is important to consider when deciding whether a biomarker warrants an impact study, does not demonstrate clinical potential, or that more data are needed. We establish distribution theory for empirical estimators of net benefit and propose empirical estimators of variance. The primary results are for the most commonly employed estimators of net benefit: from cohort and unmatched case-control samples, and for point estimates and net benefit curves. Novel estimators of net benefit under stratified two-phase and categorically matched case-control sampling are proposed and distribution theory developed. Results for common variants of net benefit and for estimation from right-censored outcomes are also presented. We motivate and demonstrate the methodology with examples from lung cancer research and highlight its application to study design.

An impact analysis of the NEXUS Chest CT clinical decision rule.

BACKGROUND: The NEXUS Chest CT clinical decision rules (CDRs) have been proposed to safely guide selective chest CT use in blunt trauma evaluation. We conducted a cost-effectiveness analysis of the NEXUS Chest CT CDR to determine its impact on missed injuries, cost, and radiation exposure. METHODS: We constructed a decision model comparing two strategies: implementation of the NEXUS Chest CDR vs. usual care in the evaluation of adults with blunt trauma. We derived probabilities, clinical outcomes, effective radiation dose (ERD) from the NEXUS Chest CT validation cohort and costs from the Charge-master at the primary study site. Our primary outcomes were cost and effective radiation dose (ERD) per missed clinically significant injury (CSI). RESULTS: Using a hypothetical cohort of 1000 adults with blunt chest trauma in each arm, the base case model projected that the implementation of the CDR would result in 161 fewer chest CTs, 0.08 additional missed CSIs, a cost savings of $136,432 and a decrease in 1435 mSv, as compared to Usual Care. To detect one additional CSI, the Usual Care strategy would require 2015 more chest CTs with a cost of $1.8 million and 17,934 mSv more radiation. CONCLUSIONS: Compared to usual care, implementation of the NEXUS Chest CT Major CDR in the evaluation of adults with blunt trauma would greatly reduce CT associated costs and radiation exposure with a slight increased risk of missed CSIs.

A Nationwide Flash-Mob Study for Suspected Acute Coronary Syndrome.

PURPOSE: Our primary objective was to evaluate the Marburg Heart Score (MHS), a clinical decision rule, or to develop an adapted clinical decision rule for family physicians (FPs) to safely rule out acute coronary syndrome (ACS) in patients referred to secondary care for suspected ACS. The secondary objective was to evaluate the feasibility of using the flash-mob method, an innovative study design, for large-scale research in family medicine. METHODS: In this 2-week, nationwide, prospective, observational, flash-mob study, FPs collected data on possible ACS predictors and assessed ACS probability (on a scale of 1-10) in patients referred to secondary care for suspected ACS. RESULTS: We collected data for 258 patients in 2 weeks by mobilizing approximately 1 in 5 FPs throughout the country via ambassadors. A final diagnosis was obtained for 243 patients (94.2%), of whom 45 (18.5%) received a diagnosis of ACS. Sex, sex-adjusted age, and ischemic changes on electrocardiography were significantly associated with ACS. The sensitivity of the MHS (cut-off ≤2) was 75.0%, specificity was 44.0%, positive predictive value was 24.3%, and negative predictive value was 88.0%. For the FP assessment (cut-off ≤5), these test characteristics were 86.7%, 41.4%, 25.2%, and 93.2%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: For patients referred to emergency care, ACS could not be safely ruled out using the MHS or FP clinical assessment. The flash-mob study design may be a feasible alternative research method to investigate relatively simple, clinically relevant research questions in family medicine on a large scale and over a relatively short time frame.

The DiPEP study: an observational study of the diagnostic accuracy of clinical assessment, D-dimer and chest x-ray for suspected pulmonary embolism in pregnancy and postpartum.

OBJECTIVE: To identify clinical features associated with pulmonary embolism (PE) diagnosis and determine the accuracy of decision rules and D-dimer for diagnosing suspected PE in pregnant/postpartum women DESIGN: Observational cohort study augmented with additional cases. SETTING: Emergency departments and maternity units at eleven prospectively recruiting sites and maternity units in the United Kingdom Obstetric Surveillance System (UKOSS) POPULATION: 324 pregnant/postpartum women with suspected PE and 198 pregnant/postpartum women with diagnosed PE METHODS: We recorded clinical features, elements of clinical decision rules, D-dimer measurements, imaging results, treatments and adverse outcomes up to 30 days MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Women were classified as having PE on the basis of imaging, treatment and adverse outcomes by assessors blind to clinical features and D-dimer. Primary analysis was limited to women with conclusive imaging to avoid work-up bias. Secondary analyses included women with clinically diagnosed or ruled out PE. RESULTS: The only clinical features associated with PE on multivariate analysis were age (odds ratio 1.06; 95% confidence interval 1.01-1.11), previous thrombosis (3.07; 1.05-8.99), family history of thrombosis (0.35; 0.14-0.90), temperature (2.22; 1.26-3.91), systolic blood pressure (0.96; 0.93-0.99), oxygen saturation (0.87; 0.78-0.97) and PE-related chest x-ray abnormality (13.4; 1.39-130.2). Clinical decision rules had areas under the receiver-operator characteristic curve ranging from 0.577 to 0.732 and no clinically useful threshold for decision-making. Sensitivities and specificities of D-dimer were 88.4% and 8.8% using a standard threshold and 69.8% and 32.8% using a pregnancy-specific threshold. CONCLUSIONS: Clinical decision rules and D-dimer should not be used to select pregnant or postpartum women with suspected PE for further investigation. Clinical features and chest x-ray appearances may have counter-intuitive associations with PE in this context. TWEETABLE ABSTRACT: Clinical decision rules and D-dimer are not helpful for diagnosing pregnant/postpartum women with suspected PE.

Use of a three-tiered clinical decision rule to quantify unnecessary radiological investigation of suspected pulmonary embolism.

BACKGROUND: Clinical decision rules for suspected pulmonary embolism are proposed to identify patients suitable for discharge without radiological investigation. Their use varies between institutions. AIMS: To quantify unnecessary radiological investigations for suspected pulmonary embolism (PE) as defined by a newly proposed three-tiered clinical decision rule incorporating the revised Geneva score, Pulmonary Embolism Rule-Out Criteria and D-dimer. To quantify missed diagnosis of PE if the proposed clinical decision rule were followed. METHODS: A retrospective audit was conducted; applying the proposed clinical decision rule to 584 emergency department (ED)-based encounters at the Royal Adelaide Hospital from May to November 2015. Encounters were confined to emergency presentations where suspected acute PE was investigated with computed tomography pulmonary angiography or ventilation-perfusion scanning; inpatient and follow-up studies were excluded. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value of the proposed clinical decision rule within the studied population were calculated. RESULTS: Data were obtained for 584 patient encounters where suspected PE was investigated radiologically. Applied retrospectively, the proposed clinical decision rule had a negative predictive value of 97.7% and a sensitivity of 98.5% for radiologically proven PE; 9.2% of scans could have been avoided. One case of PE would have been missed; a false-negative rate of 1.5%. CONCLUSION: Retrospective application of the proposed clinical decision rule to the studied cohort indicates at least 9% of radiological investigations were unnecessary. A prospective study is needed to assess the safety and cost-effectiveness of applying such a pathway to all patients presenting to ED with suspected PE.

External validation of the Scandinavian guidelines for management of minimal, mild and moderate head injuries in children.

BACKGROUND: Clinical decision rules (CDRs) aid in the management of children with traumatic brain injury (TBI). Recently, the Scandinavian Neurotrauma Committee (SNC) has published practical, evidence-based guidelines for children with Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) scores of 9-15. This study aims to validate these guidelines and to compare them with other CDRs. METHODS: A large prospective cohort of children (< 18 years) with TBI of all severities, from ten Australian and New Zealand hospitals, was used to assess the SNC guidelines. Firstly, a validation study was performed according to the inclusion and exclusion criteria of the SNC guideline. Secondly, we compared the accuracy of SNC, CATCH, CHALICE and PECARN CDRs in patients with GCS 13-15 only. Diagnostic accuracy was calculated for outcome measures of need for neurosurgery, clinically important TBI (ciTBI) and brain injury on CT. RESULTS: The SNC guideline could be applied to 19,007/20,137 of patients (94.4%) in the validation process. The frequency of ciTBI decreased significantly with stratification by decreasing risk according to the SNC guideline. Sensitivities for the detection of neurosurgery, ciTBI and brain injury on CT were 100.0% (95% CI 89.1-100.0; 32/32), 97.8% (94.5-99.4; 179/183) and 95% (95% CI 91.6-97.2; 262/276), respectively, with a CT/admission rate of 42% (mandatory CT rate of 5%, 18% CT or admission and 19% only admission). Four patients with ciTBI were missed; none needed specific intervention. In the homogenous comparison cohort of 18,913 children, the SNC guideline performed similar to the PECARN CDR, when compared with the other CDRs. CONCLUSION: The SNC guideline showed a high accuracy in a large external validation cohort and compares well with published CDRs for the management of paediatric TBI.

Selective Prereduction Radiography in Anterior Shoulder Dislocation: The Fresno-Quebec Rule.

BACKGROUND: Shoulder dislocation is one of the most frequent dislocations encountered by emergency physicians. Typical emergency care usually includes performing both prereduction and postreduction radiography. However, selective radiography has the potential benefits of reducing emergency department (ED) time and radiation exposure. OBJECTIVES: To refine and combine two existing clinical decision rules for selective radiography in the ED management of anterior shoulder dislocation, thus creating the Fresno-Quebec rule (FQR). METHODS: Patients presenting to the ED with an anterior shoulder dislocation were enrolled in a prospective cohort study in two university-affiliated EDs. Patients with a clinically important fracture-dislocation were compared with those with an uncomplicated dislocation. We refined our new decision rule to detect all fracture-dislocations while maximizing specificity. RESULTS: A total of 207 patients were included in this study, of which 24 (11.8%) had a clinically important fracture-dislocation. The refined rule consisting of three criteria had a sensitivity of 100% (95% confidence interval [CI] 87.5-100%), specificity of 50% (95% CI 42.5-57.5%), negative predictive value of 100% (95% CI 96-100%), and a negative likelihood ratio of 0.21 (95% CI 0.14-0.30). No patient with an atraumatic, recurrent dislocation had a fracture. Patients over age 35 years had an increased risk of fracture-dislocation if they sustained blunt injury or had a first episode of dislocation. Using this rule could have reduced prereduction radiographs by 44%. CONCLUSION: The refined Fresno-Quebec shoulder dislocation rule detected all clinically important prereduction fracture-dislocations and could have reduced prereduction films by 44%. Prospective validation is warranted.

Impact of the HEART Pathway on Admission Rates for Emergency Department Patients with Chest Pain: An External Clinical Validation Study.

BACKGROUND: Chest pain is a common emergency department (ED) chief complaint. Safe discharge mechanisms for low-risk chest pain patients would be useful. OBJECTIVE: To compare admission rates prior to and after implementation of an accelerated disposition pathway for ED patients with low-risk chest pain based upon the HEART (History, ECG, Age, Risk factors, Troponin) score (HEART pathway). METHODS: We conducted an impact analysis of the HEART pathway. Patients with a HEART score ≥ 4 underwent hospital admission for cardiac risk stratification and monitoring. Patients with a HEART score ≤ 3 could opt for discharge with 72-h follow-up in lieu of admission. We collected data on cohorts prior to and after implementation of the new disposition pathway. For each cohort, we screened the charts of 625 consecutive chest pain patients. We measured patient demographics, past medical history, vital signs, HEART score, disposition, and 6-week major adverse cardiac events (MACE) using chart review methodology. We compared our primary outcome of hospital admission between the two cohorts. RESULTS: The admission rate for the preintervention cohort was 63.5% (95% confidence interval [CI] 58.7-68.2%), vs. 48.3% (95% CI 43.7-53.0%) for the postintervention cohort. The absolute difference in admission rates was 15.3% (95% CI 8.7-21.8%). The odds ratio of admission for the postintervention cohort in a logistic regression model controlling for demographics, comorbidities, and vital signs was 0.48 (95% CI 0.33-0.66). One postintervention cohort patient leaving the ED against medical advice (HEART Score 4) experienced 6-week MACE. CONCLUSIONS: The HEART pathway may provide a safe mechanism to optimize resource allocation for risk-stratifying ED chest pain patients.

Proposed Clinical Decision Rules to Diagnose Acute Rhinosinusitis Among Adults in Primary Care.

PURPOSE: To reduce inappropriate antibiotic prescribing, we sought to develop a clinical decision rule for the diagnosis of acute rhinosinusitis and acute bacterial rhinosinusitis. METHODS: Multivariate analysis and classification and regression tree (CART) analysis were used to develop clinical decision rules for the diagnosis of acute rhinosinusitis, defined using 3 different reference standards (purulent antral puncture fluid or abnormal finding on a computed tomographic (CT) scan; for acute bacterial rhinosinusitis, we used a positive bacterial culture of antral fluid). Signs, symptoms, C-reactive protein (CRP), and reference standard tests were prospectively recorded in 175 Danish patients aged 18 to 65 years seeking care for suspected acute rhinosinusitis. For each reference standard, we developed 2 clinical decision rules: a point score based on a logistic regression model and an algorithm based on a CART model. We identified low-, moderate-, and high-risk groups for acute rhinosinusitis or acute bacterial rhinosinusitis for each clinical decision rule. RESULTS: The point scores each had between 5 and 6 predictors, and an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROCC) between 0.721 and 0.767. For positive bacterial culture as the reference standard, low-, moderate-, and high-risk groups had a 16%, 49%, and 73% likelihood of acute bacterial rhinosinusitis, respectively. CART models had an AUROCC ranging from 0.783 to 0.827. For positive bacterial culture as the reference standard, low-, moderate-, and high-risk groups had a likelihood of acute bacterial rhinosinusitis of 6%, 31%, and 59% respectively. CONCLUSIONS: We have developed a series of clinical decision rules integrating signs, symptoms, and CRP to diagnose acute rhinosinusitis and acute bacterial rhinosinusitis with good accuracy. They now require prospective validation and an assessment of their effect on clinical and process outcomes.