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1.
Br J Clin Pharmacol ; 2024 Aug 07.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39112438

RESUMO

AIMS: Omalizumab is an anti-immunoglobulin E (IgE) monoclonal antibody that was first approved by the United States (US) Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for the treatment of allergic asthma in 2003. The pivotal trials supporting the initial approval of omalizumab used dosing determined by patient's baseline IgE and body weight, with the goal of reducing the mean free IgE level to approximately 25 ng/mL or less. While the underlying parameters supporting the dosing table remained the same, subsequent studies and analyses have resulted in approved alternative versions of the dosing table, including the European Union (EU) asthma dosing table, which differs in weight bands and maximum allowable baseline IgE and omalizumab dose. In this study, we leveraged modelling and simulation approaches to predict and compare the free IgE reduction and forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1) improvement with omalizumab dosing based on the US and EU asthma dosing tables. METHODS: Previously established population pharmacokinetic-IgE and IgE-FEV1 models were used to predict and compare post-treatment free IgE and FEV1 based on the US and EU dosing tables. Clinical trial simulations (with virtual asthma populations) and Monte Carlo simulations were performed to provide both breadth and depth in the comparisons. RESULTS: The US and EU asthma dosing tables were predicted to result in generally comparable free IgE suppression and FEV1 improvement. CONCLUSIONS: Despite the similar free IgE and FEV1 outcomes from simulations, this has not been clinically validated with respect to the registrational endpoint of reduction in annualized asthma exacerbations.

2.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38609673

RESUMO

The study aimed to provide quantitative information on the utilization of MRI transverse relaxation time constant (MRI-T2) of leg muscles in DMD clinical trials by developing multivariate disease progression models of Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD) using 6-min walk distance (6MWD) and MRI-T2. Clinical data were collected from the prospective and longitudinal ImagingNMD study. Disease progression models were developed by a nonlinear mixed-effect modeling approach. Univariate models of 6MWD and MRI-T2 of five muscles were developed separately. Age at assessment was the time metric. Multivariate models were developed by estimating the correlation of 6MWD and MRI-T2 model variables. Full model estimation approach for covariate analysis and five-fold cross validation were conducted. Simulations were performed to compare the models and predict the covariate effects on the trajectories of 6MWD and MRI-T2. Sigmoid Imax and Emax models best captured the profiles of 6MWD and MRI-T2 over age. Steroid use, baseline 6MWD, and baseline MRI-T2 were significant covariates. The median age at which 6MWD is half of its maximum decrease in the five models was similar, while the median age at which MRI-T2 is half of its maximum increase varied depending on the type of muscle. The models connecting 6MWD and MRI-T2 successfully quantified how individual characteristics alter disease trajectories. The models demonstrate a plausible correlation between 6MWD and MRI-T2, supporting the use of MRI-T2. The developed models will guide drug developers in using the MRI-T2 to most efficient use in DMD clinical trials.

3.
Stat Med ; 41(4): 751-768, 2022 02 20.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34888892

RESUMO

Pivotal cancer trials often fail to yield evidence in support of new therapies thought to offer promising alternatives to standards-of-care. Conducting randomized controlled trials in oncology tends to be considerably more expensive than studies of other diseases with comparable sample size. Moreover, phase III trial design often takes place with a paucity of survival data for experimental therapies. Experts have explained the failures on the basis of design flaws which produce studies with unrealistic expectations. This article presents a framework for predicting outcomes of phase III oncology trials using Bayesian mediation models. Predictions, which arise from interim analyses, derive from multivariate modeling of the relationships among treatment, tumor response, and their conjoint effects on survival. Acting as a safeguard against inaccurate pre-trial design assumptions, the methodology may better facilitate rapid closure of negative studies. Additionally the models can be used to inform re-estimations of sample size for under-powered trials that demonstrate survival benefit via tumor response mediation. The methods are applied to predict the outcomes of two colorectal cancer studies. Simulation is used to evaluate and compare models in the absence versus presence of reliable surrogate markers of survival.


Assuntos
Oncologia , Neoplasias , Teorema de Bayes , Ensaios Clínicos Fase III como Assunto , Simulação por Computador , Humanos , Neoplasias/tratamento farmacológico , Projetos de Pesquisa , Tamanho da Amostra
4.
Br J Clin Pharmacol ; 88(1): 323-335, 2022 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34197653

RESUMO

AIMS: In the UNITI endoscopy sub-study, only 17.4% of patients with Crohn's disease (CD) on ustekinumab achieved endoscopic response and 10.9% of patients achieved endoscopic remission at week (w)44. We aimed to evaluate the impact of alternative ustekinumab dosage regimens on endoscopic outcomes based on population pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic (popPK-PD) modelling and simulation analysis. METHODS: Real-world data were obtained from 83 patients with moderate-to-severe CD (95% biological-refractory) enrolled in a prospective cohort study receiving intravenous ustekinumab (~6 mg/kg) followed by every eight-week (q8w) subcutaneous maintenance therapy (90 mg). Three sequential models were developed: a two-compartment popPK model linking ustekinumab dose to ustekinumab exposure, an indirect response popPK-PD model describing the effect of ustekinumab exposure on fecal calprotectin (fCal), and a logistic regression outcome model linking fCal to endoscopic outcomes. RESULTS: Ustekinumab clearance increased with decreasing serum albumin and increasing bodyweight. fCal decreased with increasing ustekinumab exposure. The probability of endoscopic response at w24 increased from 10.0% to 17.9% with fCal at w8 decreasing from 1800 µg/g to 694 µg/g (EC50 ). The probability of endoscopic remission at w24 increased from 2.1% to 10.0% with fCal at w8 decreasing from 1800 µg/g to 214 µg/g (EC50 ). Simulation-based comparison of q8w and q4w maintenance dosing regimens predicted 16.7% and 22.2% endoscopic response rates, respectively. Endoscopic remission rates were estimated to be 4.2% on q8w dosing and 6.7% on q4w dosing. CONCLUSIONS: The developed models can guide clinical trial design and support model-informed dose optimization (stratified or individualized dosing) to improve endoscopic outcomes.


Assuntos
Doença de Crohn , Ustekinumab , Doença de Crohn/tratamento farmacológico , Fezes , Humanos , Complexo Antígeno L1 Leucocitário , Estudos Prospectivos , Resultado do Tratamento , Ustekinumab/uso terapêutico
5.
Pharm Stat ; 21(3): 671-690, 2022 05.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35102685

RESUMO

Platform trials have become increasingly popular for drug development programs, attracting interest from statisticians, clinicians and regulatory agencies. Many statistical questions related to designing platform trials-such as the impact of decision rules, sharing of information across cohorts, and allocation ratios on operating characteristics and error rates-remain unanswered. In many platform trials, the definition of error rates is not straightforward as classical error rate concepts are not applicable. For an open-entry, exploratory platform trial design comparing combination therapies to the respective monotherapies and standard-of-care, we define a set of error rates and operating characteristics and then use these to compare a set of design parameters under a range of simulation assumptions. When setting up the simulations, we aimed for realistic trial trajectories, such that for example, a priori we do not know the exact number of treatments that will be included over time in a specific simulation run as this follows a stochastic mechanism. Our results indicate that the method of data sharing, exact specification of decision rules and a priori assumptions regarding the treatment efficacy all strongly contribute to the operating characteristics of the platform trial. Furthermore, different operating characteristics might be of importance to different stakeholders. Together with the potential flexibility and complexity of a platform trial, which also impact the achieved operating characteristics via, for example, the degree of efficiency of data sharing this implies that utmost care needs to be given to evaluation of different assumptions and design parameters at the design stage.


Assuntos
Ensaios Clínicos Controlados Aleatórios como Assunto , Projetos de Pesquisa , Terapia Combinada , Humanos , Resultado do Tratamento
6.
Stat Med ; 40(19): 4167-4184, 2021 08 30.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33960507

RESUMO

A Bayesian adaptive design is proposed for a clinical trial in Duchenne muscular dystrophy. The trial was designed to demonstrate treatment efficacy on an ambulatory-based clinical endpoint and to identify early success on a biomarker (dystrophin protein levels) that can serve as a basis for accelerated approval in the United States. The trial incorporates placebo augmentation using placebo data from past clinical trials. A thorough simulation study was conducted to understand the operating characteristics of the trial. This trial design was selected for the US FDA Complex Innovative Trial Design Pilot Meeting Program and the experience in that program is summarized.


Assuntos
Distrofia Muscular de Duchenne , Teorema de Bayes , Distrofina , Humanos , Distrofia Muscular de Duchenne/tratamento farmacológico , Projetos de Pesquisa , Resultado do Tratamento
7.
Clin Trials ; 18(5): 541-551, 2021 10.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34431409

RESUMO

BACKGROUND/AIMS: Design of clinical trials requires careful decision-making across several dimensions, including endpoints, eligibility criteria, and subgroup enrichment. Clinical trial simulation can be an informative tool in trial design, providing empirical evidence by which to evaluate and compare the results of hypothetical trials with varying designs. We introduce a novel simulation-based approach using observational data to inform the design of a future pragmatic trial. METHODS: We utilize propensity score-adjusted models to simulate hypothetical trials under alternative endpoints and enrollment criteria. We apply our approach to the design of pragmatic trials in psoriatic arthritis, using observational data embedded within the Tight Control of Inflammation in Early Psoriatic Arthritis study to simulate hypothetical open-label trials comparing treatment with tumor necrosis factor-α inhibitors to methotrexate. We first validate our simulations of a trial with traditional enrollment criteria and endpoints against a recently published trial. Next, we compare simulated treatment effects in patient populations defined by traditional and broadened enrollment criteria, where the latter is consistent with a future pragmatic trial. In each trial, we also consider five candidate primary endpoints. RESULTS: Our results highlight how changes in the enrolled population and primary endpoints may qualitatively alter study findings and the ability to detect heterogeneous treatment effects between clinical subgroups. For treatments of interest in the study of psoriatic arthritis, broadened enrollment criteria led to diluted estimated treatment effects. Endpoints with greater responsiveness to treatment compared with a traditionally used endpoint were identified. These considerations, among others, are important for designing a future pragmatic trial aimed at having high external validity with relevance for real-world clinical practice. CONCLUSION: Observational data may be leveraged to inform design decisions in pragmatic trials. Our approach may be generalized to the study of other conditions where existing trial data are limited or do not generalize well to real-world clinical practice, but where observational data are available.


Assuntos
Artrite Psoriásica , Artrite Psoriásica/tratamento farmacológico , Simulação por Computador , Humanos , Pontuação de Propensão , Projetos de Pesquisa
8.
World J Urol ; 38(2): 463-472, 2020 Feb.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31079189

RESUMO

PURPOSE: Despite superiority of tamsulosin-dutasteride combination therapy versus monotherapy for lower urinary tract symptoms due to benign prostatic hyperplasia (LUTS/BPH), patients at risk of disease progression are often initiated on α-blockers. This study evaluated the impact of initiating tamsulosin monotherapy prior to switching to tamsulosin-dutasteride combination therapy versus immediate combination therapy using a longitudinal model describing International Prostate Symptom Score (IPSS) trajectories in moderate/severe LUTS/BPH patients at risk of disease progression. METHODS: Clinical trial simulations (CTS) were performed using data from 10,238 patients from Phase III/IV dutasteride trials. The effect of varying disease progression rates was explored by comparing profiles on- and off-treatment. CTS scenarios were investigated, including a reference (immediate combination therapy) and six alternative virtual treatment arms (delayed combination therapy of 1-24 months). Clinical response (≥ 25% IPSS reduction relative to baseline) was analysed using log-rank test. Differences in IPSS relative to baseline at various on-treatment time points were assessed by t tests. RESULTS: Delayed combination therapy initiation led to significant (p < 0.01) decreases in clinical response. At month 48, clinical response rate was 79.7% versus 74.1%, 70.3% and 71.0% and IPSS was 6.3 versus 7.6, 8.1 and 8.0 (switchers from tamsulosin monotherapy after 6, 12 and 24 months, respectively) with immediate combination therapy. More patients transitioned from severe/moderate to mild severity scores by month 48. CONCLUSIONS: CTS allows systematic evaluation of immediate versus delayed combination therapy. Immediate response to α-blockers is not predictive of long-term symptom improvement. Observed IPSS differences between immediate and delayed combination therapy (6-24 months) are statistically significant.


Assuntos
Azasteroides/uso terapêutico , Dutasterida/uso terapêutico , Sintomas do Trato Urinário Inferior/etiologia , Hiperplasia Prostática/diagnóstico , Tempo para o Tratamento , Inibidores de 5-alfa Redutase/uso terapêutico , Idoso , Progressão da Doença , Método Duplo-Cego , Quimioterapia Combinada , Humanos , Sintomas do Trato Urinário Inferior/diagnóstico , Sintomas do Trato Urinário Inferior/tratamento farmacológico , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Hiperplasia Prostática/complicações , Hiperplasia Prostática/tratamento farmacológico , Resultado do Tratamento
9.
Biom J ; 61(5): 1303-1313, 2019 09.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30295953

RESUMO

We present a case study for developing clinical trial scenarios in a complex progressive disease with multiple events of interest. The idea is to first capture the course of the disease in a multistate Markov model, and then to simulate clinical trials from this model, including a variety of hypothesized drug effects. This case study focuses on the prevention of graft-versus-host disease (GvHD) after allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT). The patient trajectory after HSCT is characterized by a complex interplay of various events of interest, and there is no established best method of measuring and/or analyzing treatment benefits. We characterized patient trajectories by means of multistate models that we fitted to a subset of the Center for International Blood and Marrow Transplant Research (CIBMTR) database. Events of interest included acute GvHD of grade III or IV, severe chronic GvHD, relapse of the underlying disease, and death. The transition probability matrix was estimated using the Aalen-Johansen estimator, and patient characteristics were identified that were associated with different transition rates. In a second step, clinical trial scenarios were simulated from the model assuming various drug effects on the background transition rates, and the operating characteristics of different endpoints and analysis strategies were compared in these scenarios. This helped devise a drug development strategy in GvHD prevention after allogeneic HSCT. More generally, multistate models provide a rich framework for exploring complex progressive diseases, and the availability of a corresponding simulation machinery provides great flexibility for clinical trial planning.


Assuntos
Biometria , Ensaios Clínicos como Assunto , Descoberta de Drogas , Transplante de Células-Tronco Hematopoéticas/efeitos adversos , Modelos Estatísticos , Intervalo Livre de Doença , Doença Enxerto-Hospedeiro/tratamento farmacológico , Doença Enxerto-Hospedeiro/etiologia , Humanos , Cadeias de Markov , Transplante Homólogo/efeitos adversos
10.
J Pharmacokinet Pharmacodyn ; 45(3): 355-364, 2018 06.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29353335

RESUMO

Cardiovascular disease remains a significant global health burden, and development of cardiovascular drugs in the current regulatory environment often demands large and expensive cardiovascular outcome trials. Thus, the use of quantitative pharmacometric approaches which can help enable early Go/No Go decision making, ensure appropriate dose selection, and increase the likelihood of successful clinical trials, have become increasingly important to help reduce the risk of failed cardiovascular outcomes studies. In addition, cardiovascular safety is an important consideration for many drug development programs, whether or not the drug is designed to treat cardiovascular disease; modeling and simulation approaches also have utility in assessing risk in this area. Herein, examples of modeling and simulation applied at various stages of drug development, spanning from the discovery stage through late-stage clinical development, for cardiovascular programs are presented. Examples of how modeling approaches have been utilized in early development programs across various therapeutic areas to help inform strategies to mitigate the risk of cardiovascular-related adverse events, such as QTc prolongation and changes in blood pressure, are also presented. These examples demonstrate how more informed drug development decisions can be enabled by modeling and simulation approaches in the cardiovascular area.


Assuntos
Fármacos Cardiovasculares/farmacologia , Fármacos Cardiovasculares/uso terapêutico , Doenças Cardiovasculares/tratamento farmacológico , Animais , Desenvolvimento de Medicamentos/métodos , Descoberta de Drogas/métodos , Humanos , Medição de Risco
11.
Epilepsia ; 58(5): 835-844, 2017 05.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-28369781

RESUMO

OBJECTIVE: Our objective was to develop a generalized linear mixed model for predicting seizure count that is useful in the design and analysis of clinical trials. This model also may benefit the design and interpretation of seizure-recording paradigms. Most existing seizure count models do not include children, and there is currently no consensus regarding the most suitable model that can be applied to children and adults. Therefore, an additional objective was to develop a model that accounts for both adult and pediatric epilepsy. METHODS: Using data from SeizureTracker.com, a patient-reported seizure diary tool with >1.2 million recorded seizures across 8 years, we evaluated the appropriateness of Poisson, negative binomial, zero-inflated negative binomial, and modified negative binomial models for seizure count data based on minimization of the Bayesian information criterion. Generalized linear mixed-effects models were used to account for demographic and etiologic covariates and for autocorrelation structure. Holdout cross-validation was used to evaluate predictive accuracy in simulating seizure frequencies. RESULTS: For both adults and children, we found that a negative binomial model with autocorrelation over 1 day was optimal. Using holdout cross-validation, the proposed model was found to provide accurate simulation of seizure counts for patients with up to four seizures per day. SIGNIFICANCE: The optimal model can be used to generate more realistic simulated patient data with very few input parameters. The availability of a parsimonious, realistic virtual patient model can be of great utility in simulations of phase II/III clinical trials, epilepsy monitoring units, outpatient biosensors, and mobile Health (mHealth) applications.


Assuntos
Biomarcadores , Mineração de Dados , Eletroencefalografia/métodos , Epilepsia/fisiopatologia , Modelos Lineares , Processamento de Sinais Assistido por Computador , Adulto , Teorema de Bayes , Criança , Humanos , Modelos Estatísticos , Software , Análise Espacial
12.
Mol Pharm ; 14(12): 4321-4333, 2017 12 04.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-28817288

RESUMO

The aim of this study was to evaluate gastrointestinal (GI) dissolution, supersaturation, and precipitation of posaconazole, formulated as an acidified (pH 1.6) and neutral (pH 7.1) suspension. A physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling and simulation tool was applied to simulate GI and systemic concentration-time profiles of posaconazole, which were directly compared with intraluminal and systemic data measured in humans. The Advanced Dissolution Absorption and Metabolism (ADAM) model of the Simcyp Simulator correctly simulated incomplete gastric dissolution and saturated duodenal concentrations of posaconazole in the duodenal fluids following administration of the neutral suspension. In contrast, gastric dissolution was approximately 2-fold higher after administration of the acidified suspension, which resulted in supersaturated concentrations of posaconazole upon transfer to the upper small intestine. The precipitation kinetics of posaconazole were described by two precipitation rate constants, extracted by semimechanistic modeling of a two-stage medium change in vitro dissolution test. The 2-fold difference in exposure in the duodenal compartment for the two formulations corresponded with a 2-fold difference in systemic exposure. This study demonstrated for the first time predictive in silico simulations of GI dissolution, supersaturation, and precipitation for a weakly basic compound in part informed by modeling of in vitro dissolution experiments and validated via clinical measurements in both GI fluids and plasma. Sensitivity analysis with the PBPK model indicated that the critical supersaturation ratio (CSR) and second precipitation rate constant (sPRC) are important parameters of the model. Due to the limitations of the two-stage medium change experiment the CSR was extracted directly from the clinical data. However, in vitro experiments with the BioGIT transfer system performed after completion of the in silico modeling provided an almost identical CSR to the clinical study value; this had no significant impact on the PBPK model predictions.


Assuntos
Simulação por Computador , Liberação Controlada de Fármacos , Trato Gastrointestinal/fisiologia , Modelos Biológicos , Triazóis/farmacocinética , Administração Oral , Biofarmácia/métodos , Química Farmacêutica , Humanos , Concentração de Íons de Hidrogênio , Absorção Intestinal/fisiologia , Modelos Químicos , Solubilidade
13.
J Pharmacokinet Pharmacodyn ; 44(4): 325-333, 2017 08.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-28389762

RESUMO

Inconsistent trial design and analysis is a key reason that few advances in postoperative pain management have been made from clinical trials analyzing opioid consumption data. This study aimed to compare four different approaches to analyze opioid consumption data. A repeated time-to-event (RTTE) model in NONMEM was used to simulate clinical trials of morphine consumption with and without a hypothetical adjuvant analgesic in doses equivalent to 15-62% reduction in morphine consumption. Trials were simulated with duration of 24-96 h. Monte Carlo simulation and re-estimation were performed to determine sample size required to demonstrate efficacy with 80% power using t test, Mann-Whitney rank sum test, time-to-event (TTE) modeling and RTTE modeling. Precision of efficacy estimates for RTTE models were evaluated in 500 simulations. A sample size of 50 patients was required to detect 37% morphine sparing effect with at least 80% power in a 24 h trial with RTTE modeling whereas the required sample size was 200 for Mann-Whitney, 180 for t-test and 76 for TTE models. Extending the trial duration from 24 to 96 h reduced the required sample size by 3.1 fold with RTTE modeling. Precise estimate of potency was obtained with a RTTE model accounting for both morphine effects and time-varying covariates on opioid consumption. An RTTE analysis approach proved better suited for demonstrating efficacy of opioid sparing analgesics than traditional statistical tests as a lower sample size was required due the ability to account for time-varying factors including PK.


Assuntos
Analgésicos Opioides/administração & dosagem , Analgésicos Opioides/farmacocinética , Ensaios Clínicos como Assunto/métodos , Simulação por Computador , Ensaios Clínicos como Assunto/estatística & dados numéricos , Simulação por Computador/estatística & dados numéricos , Relação Dose-Resposta a Droga , Humanos , Morfina/administração & dosagem , Morfina/farmacocinética , Tamanho da Amostra , Fatores de Tempo
14.
Mol Pharm ; 13(2): 557-67, 2016 Feb 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-26692042

RESUMO

The oral route of administration is still by far the most ubiquitous method of drug delivery. Development in this area still faces many challenges due to the complexity and inhomogeneity of the gastrointestinal environment. In particular, dosing unpredictably relative to motility phase means the gastrointestinal environment is a random variable within a defined range. Here, we present a mass balance analysis that captures this variation and highlights the effects of gastrointestinal motility, exploring what impacts it ultimately has on plasma levels and the relationship to bioequivalence for high solubility products with both high and low permeability (BCS I and III). Motility-dependent compartmental absorption and transit (MDCAT) mechanistic analysis is developed to describe the underlying fasted state cyclical motility and how the contents of the gastrointestinal tract are propelled.


Assuntos
Dietilcarbamazina/sangue , Ácidos Graxos Monoinsaturados/sangue , Fluoruracila/sangue , Esvaziamento Gástrico/efeitos dos fármacos , Motilidade Gastrointestinal/efeitos dos fármacos , Trânsito Gastrointestinal/efeitos dos fármacos , Indóis/sangue , Absorção Intestinal/efeitos dos fármacos , Administração Oral , Anticolesterolemiantes/administração & dosagem , Anticolesterolemiantes/sangue , Anticolesterolemiantes/farmacocinética , Simulação por Computador , Dietilcarbamazina/administração & dosagem , Dietilcarbamazina/farmacocinética , Ácidos Graxos Monoinsaturados/administração & dosagem , Ácidos Graxos Monoinsaturados/farmacocinética , Fluoruracila/administração & dosagem , Fluoruracila/farmacocinética , Fluvastatina , Humanos , Imunossupressores/administração & dosagem , Imunossupressores/sangue , Imunossupressores/farmacocinética , Indóis/administração & dosagem , Indóis/farmacocinética , Inibidores de Lipoxigenase/administração & dosagem , Inibidores de Lipoxigenase/sangue , Inibidores de Lipoxigenase/farmacocinética , Masculino , Modelos Biológicos , Distribuição Tecidual
15.
Br J Clin Pharmacol ; 79(1): 108-16, 2015 Jan.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-24527997

RESUMO

Clinical drug development remains a mostly empirical, costly enterprise, in which decision-making is often based on qualitative assessment of risk, without properly leveraging all the relevant data collected throughout the development programme. Model-based drug development (MBDD) has been proposed by regulatory agencies, academia and pharmaceutical companies as a paradigm to modernize drug research through the quantification of risk and combination of information from different sources across time. We present here a historical account of the use of MBDD in clinical drug development, the current challenges and further opportunities for its application in the pharmaceutical industry.


Assuntos
Simulação por Computador , Descoberta de Drogas/tendências , Indústria Farmacêutica/tendências , Modelos Biológicos , Humanos
16.
Pediatr Blood Cancer ; 61(12): 2223-9, 2014 Dec.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-25175364

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: The aim of the current work was to perform a clinical trial simulation (CTS) analysis to optimize a drug-drug interaction (DDI) study of vincristine in children who also received azole antifungals, taking into account challenges of conducting clinical trials in this population, and, to provide a motivating example of the application of CTS in the design of pediatric oncology clinical trials. PROCEDURE: A pharmacokinetic (PK) model for vincristine in children was used to simulate concentration-time profiles. A continuous model for body surface area versus age was defined based on pediatric growth curves. Informative sampling time windows were derived using D-optimal design. The CTS framework was used to different magnitudes of clearance inhibition (10%, 25%, or 40%), sample size (30-500), the impact of missing samples or sampling occasions, and the age distribution, on the power to detect a significant inhibition effect, and in addition, the relative estimation error (REE) of the interaction effect. RESULTS: A minimum group specific sample size of 38 patients with a total sample size of 150 patients was required to detect a clearance inhibition effect of 40% with 80% power, while in the case of a lower effect of clearance inhibition, a substantially larger sample size was required. However, for the majority of re-estimated drug effects, the inhibition effect could be estimated precisely (REE < 25%) in even smaller sample sizes and with lower effect sizes. CONCLUSION: This work demonstrated the utility of CTS for the evaluation of PK clinical trial designs in the pediatric oncology population.


Assuntos
Azóis/farmacocinética , Ensaios Clínicos como Assunto , Simulação por Computador , Modelos Biológicos , Neoplasias/tratamento farmacológico , Projetos de Pesquisa , Vincristina/farmacocinética , Adolescente , Adulto , Algoritmos , Antifúngicos/metabolismo , Antifúngicos/farmacocinética , Antineoplásicos Fitogênicos/metabolismo , Antineoplásicos Fitogênicos/farmacocinética , Azóis/metabolismo , Criança , Pré-Escolar , Contaminação de Medicamentos , Interações Medicamentosas , Humanos , Lactente , Recém-Nascido , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Neoplasias/metabolismo , Vincristina/metabolismo , Adulto Jovem
17.
Psychiatry Res ; 338: 115989, 2024 Aug.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38824710

RESUMO

INTRODUCTION: The aim of the study was to evaluate interaction effect of various augmentation strategies with clozapine in patients with Treatment-resistant schizophrenia. METHODS: Data was extracted for change in positive and negative syndrome scale (PANSS) or brief psychiatric rating scale (BPRS) scores for monotherapy with various antipsychotic agents alone and their combination with clozapine. Individual patient data was generated using simulation of data (factorial trial framework) from published clinical trials for sample sizes from eight to 400 to evaluate interaction effect through linear modeling. Dose equivalents were calculated, and best fit models were determined for simulated data. RESULTS: The polynomial model was found to be the best fit for the simulated data to determine interaction effect of combination. The clozapine augmentation with risperidone and ziprasidone was found to be antagonistic, whereas it was additive for haloperidol, aripiprazole, and quetiapine. A synergistic effect was observed for ECT combined with clozapine (Interaction effect: -7.62; p <0.001). A sample size of 250-300 may be sufficient to demonstrate a clinically significant interaction in future trials. CONCLUSION: Clozapine may be augmented with electroconvulsive therapy, leading to the enhancement of antipsychotic effect. Though some antipsychotics like aripiprazole demonstrate additive effects, they may also add to the adverse effects.


Assuntos
Antipsicóticos , Clozapina , Quimioterapia Combinada , Esquizofrenia Resistente ao Tratamento , Humanos , Clozapina/farmacologia , Clozapina/uso terapêutico , Antipsicóticos/farmacologia , Esquizofrenia Resistente ao Tratamento/tratamento farmacológico , Adulto , Masculino , Feminino , Simulação por Computador , Interações Medicamentosas , Sinergismo Farmacológico , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Esquizofrenia/tratamento farmacológico , Risperidona/farmacologia , Risperidona/uso terapêutico , Piperazinas , Tiazóis
18.
Drug Metab Pharmacokinet ; 56: 101019, 2024 Jun.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38797092

RESUMO

The quantitative systems pharmacology (QSP) approach is widely applied to address various essential questions in drug discovery and development, such as identification of the mechanism of action of a therapeutic agent, patient stratification, and the mechanistic understanding of the progression of disease. In this review article, we show the current landscape of the application of QSP modeling using a survey of QSP publications over 10 years from 2013 to 2022. We also present a use case for the risk assessment of hyperkalemia in patients with diabetic nephropathy treated with mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists (MRAs, renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system inhibitors), as a prospective simulation of late clinical development. A QSP model for generating virtual patients with diabetic nephropathy was used to quantitatively assess that the nonsteroidal MRAs, finerenone and apararenone, have a lower risk of hyperkalemia than the steroidal MRA, eplerenone. Prospective simulation studies using a QSP model are useful to prioritize pharmaceutical candidates in clinical development and validate mechanism-based pharmacological concepts related to the risk-benefit, before conducting large-scale clinical trials.


Assuntos
Nefropatias Diabéticas , Desenvolvimento de Medicamentos , Hiperpotassemia , Antagonistas de Receptores de Mineralocorticoides , Humanos , Hiperpotassemia/induzido quimicamente , Hiperpotassemia/diagnóstico , Nefropatias Diabéticas/tratamento farmacológico , Antagonistas de Receptores de Mineralocorticoides/efeitos adversos , Antagonistas de Receptores de Mineralocorticoides/uso terapêutico , Desenvolvimento de Medicamentos/métodos , Estudos Prospectivos , Farmacologia em Rede , Ensaios Clínicos como Assunto/métodos
19.
J Pharm Sci ; 113(1): 22-32, 2024 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37924975

RESUMO

Historically, vaccine development and dose optimization have followed mostly empirical approaches without clinical pharmacology and model-informed approaches playing a major role, in contrast to conventional drug development. This is attributed to the complex cascade of immunobiological mechanisms associated with vaccines and a lack of quantitative frameworks for extracting dose-exposure-efficacy-toxicity relationships. However, the Covid-19 pandemic highlighted the lack of sufficient immunogenicity due to suboptimal vaccine dosing regimens and the need for well-designed, model-informed clinical trials which enhance the probability of selection of optimal vaccine dosing regimens. In this perspective, we attempt to develop a quantitative clinical pharmacology-based approach that integrates vaccine dose-efficacy-toxicity across various stages of vaccine development into a unified framework that we term as model-informed vaccine dose-optimization and development (MIVD). We highlight scenarios where the adoption of MIVD approaches may have a strategic advantage compared to conventional practices for vaccines.


Assuntos
Farmacologia Clínica , Vacinas , Humanos , Pandemias , Desenvolvimento de Medicamentos , Desenvolvimento de Vacinas , Modelos Biológicos , Relação Dose-Resposta a Droga
20.
J Pharm Sci ; 113(6): 1523-1535, 2024 Jun.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38142969

RESUMO

Many challenges have been identified for ensuring compatibility of closed system transfer devices (CSTDs) with biologic drug products. One challenge is large hold-up volumes (HUVs) of CSTD components, which can be especially problematic with early-stage biologics when low transfer volumes smaller than the nominal fill volume may be used to achieve a wide range of doses with a single drug product configuration. Here, we identified possible CSTD handling techniques during dose preparation of a drug product requiring small volume transfers during reconstitution, intermediate dilution, and dilution in an IV bag, and systematically evaluated the impact of these handling procedures on the ability to deliver an accurate dose to the next step. We show that small changes to CSTD procedures can have a major impact on dose accuracy, depending on both CSTD HUVs and drug product-specific transfer volumes. We demonstrate that it is possible to craft CSTD instructions for use to mitigate these issues, and that the dose accuracy for specific drug product/CSTD combinations can be estimated using theoretical equations. Finally, we explored potential downsides of these mitigations. Our results emphasize key factors for consideration by both drug and CSTD manufacturers when assessing compatibility and providing CSTD instructions for use with biologics requiring low transfer volumes during dose preparation.


Assuntos
Produtos Biológicos , Composição de Medicamentos , Produtos Biológicos/administração & dosagem , Produtos Biológicos/química , Composição de Medicamentos/métodos , Composição de Medicamentos/instrumentação , Humanos , Desenho de Equipamento
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