Are turbulence effects on droplet collision-coalescence a key to understanding observed rain formation in clouds?

Rain formation is a critical factor governing the lifecycle and radiative forcing of clouds and therefore it is a key element of weather and climate. Cloud microphysics-turbulence interactions occur across a wide range of scales and are challenging to represent in atmospheric models with limited resolution. Based on past experiments and idealized numerical simulations, it has been postulated that cloud turbulence accelerates rain formation by enhancing drop collision-coalescence. We provide substantial evidence for significant impacts of turbulence on the evolution of cloud droplet size distributions and rain formation by comparing high-resolution observations of cumulus congestus clouds with state-of-the-art large-eddy simulations coupled with a Lagrangian particle-based microphysics scheme. Turbulent coalescence must be included in the model to accurately represent the observed drop size distributions, especially for drizzle drop sizes at lower heights in the cloud. Turbulence causes earlier rain formation and greater rain accumulation compared to simulations with gravitational coalescence only. The observed rain size distribution tail just above cloud base follows a power law scaling that deviates from theoretical scalings considering either a purely gravitation collision kernel or a turbulent kernel neglecting droplet inertial effects, providing additional evidence for turbulent coalescence in clouds. In contrast, large aerosols acting as cloud condensation nuclei ("giant CCN") do not significantly impact rain formation owing to their long timescale to reach equilibrium wet size relative to the lifetime of rising cumulus thermals. Overall, turbulent drop coalescence exerts a dominant influence on rain initiation in warm cumulus clouds, with limited impacts of giant CCN.

Photomolecular effect: Visible light interaction with air-water interface.

Although water is almost transparent to visible light, we demonstrate that the air-water interface interacts strongly with visible light via what we hypothesize as the photomolecular effect. In this effect, transverse-magnetic polarized photons cleave off water clusters from the air-water interface. We use 14 different experiments to demonstrate the existence of this effect and its dependence on the wavelength, incident angle, and polarization of visible light. We further demonstrate that visible light heats up thin fogs, suggesting that this process can impact weather, climate, and the earth's water cycle and that it provides a mechanism to resolve the long-standing puzzle of larger measured clouds absorption to solar radiation than theory could predict based on bulk water optical constants. Our study suggests that the photomolecular effect should happen widely in nature, from clouds to fogs, ocean to soil surfaces, and plant transpiration and can also lead to applications in energy and clean water.

Cloud computing platforms to support cryo-EM structure determination.

Leveraging the power of single-particle cryo-electron microscopy (cryo-EM) requires robust and accessible computational infrastructure. Here, we summarize the cloud computing landscape and picture the outlook of a hybrid cryo-EM computing workflow, and make suggestions to the community to facilitate a future for cryo-EM that integrates into cloud computing infrastructure.

A cloud-based learning module for biomarker discovery.

This manuscript describes the development of a resource module that is part of a learning platform named "NIGMS Sandbox for Cloud-based Learning" https://github.com/NIGMS/NIGMS-Sandbox. The overall genesis of the Sandbox is described in the editorial NIGMS Sandbox at the beginning of this Supplement. This module delivers learning materials on basic principles in biomarker discovery in an interactive format that uses appropriate cloud resources for data access and analyses. In collaboration with Google Cloud, Deloitte Consulting and NIGMS, the Rhode Island INBRE Molecular Informatics Core developed a cloud-based training module for biomarker discovery. The module consists of nine submodules covering various topics on biomarker discovery and assessment and is deployed on the Google Cloud Platform and available for public use through the NIGMS Sandbox. The submodules are written as a series of Jupyter Notebooks utilizing R and Bioconductor for biomarker and omics data analysis. The submodules cover the following topics: 1) introduction to biomarkers; 2) introduction to R data structures; 3) introduction to linear models; 4) introduction to exploratory analysis; 5) rat renal ischemia-reperfusion injury case study; (6) linear and logistic regression for comparison of quantitative biomarkers; 7) exploratory analysis of proteomics IRI data; 8) identification of IRI biomarkers from proteomic data; and 9) machine learning methods for biomarker discovery. Each notebook includes an in-line quiz for self-assessment on the submodule topic and an overview video is available on YouTube (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2-Q9Ax8EW84). This manuscript describes the development of a resource module that is part of a learning platform named ``NIGMS Sandbox for Cloud-based Learning'' https://github.com/NIGMS/NIGMS-Sandbox. The overall genesis of the Sandbox is described in the editorial NIGMS Sandbox [1] at the beginning of this Supplement. This module delivers learning materials on the analysis of bulk and single-cell ATAC-seq data in an interactive format that uses appropriate cloud resources for data access and analyses.

Understanding proteome quantification in an interactive learning module on Google Cloud Platform.

This manuscript describes the development of a resource module that is part of a learning platform named 'NIGMS Sandbox for Cloud-based Learning' https://github.com/NIGMS/NIGMS-Sandbox. The overall genesis of the Sandbox is described in the editorial NIGMS Sandbox at the beginning of this Supplement. This module delivers learning materials on protein quantification in an interactive format that uses appropriate cloud resources for data access and analyses. Quantitative proteomics is a rapidly growing discipline due to the cutting-edge technologies of high resolution mass spectrometry. There are many data types to consider for proteome quantification including data dependent acquisition, data independent acquisition, multiplexing with Tandem Mass Tag reporter ions, spectral counts, and more. As part of the NIH NIGMS Sandbox effort, we developed a learning module to introduce students to mass spectrometry terminology, normalization methods, statistical designs, and basics of R programming. By utilizing the Google Cloud environment, the learning module is easily accessible without the need for complex installation procedures. The proteome quantification module demonstrates the analysis using a provided TMT10plex data set using MS3 reporter ion intensity quantitative values in a Jupyter notebook with an R kernel. The learning module begins with the raw intensities, performs normalization, and differential abundance analysis using limma models, and is designed for researchers with a basic understanding of mass spectrometry and R programming language. Learners walk away with a better understanding of how to navigate Google Cloud Platform for proteomic research, and with the basics of mass spectrometry data analysis at the command line. This manuscript describes the development of a resource module that is part of a learning platform named ``NIGMS Sandbox for Cloud-based Learning'' https://github.com/NIGMS/NIGMS-Sandbox. The overall genesis of the Sandbox is described in the editorial NIGMS Sandbox [1] at the beginning of this Supplement. This module delivers learning materials on the analysis of bulk and single-cell ATAC-seq data in an interactive format that uses appropriate cloud resources for data access and analyses.

CloudATAC: a cloud-based framework for ATAC-Seq data analysis.

Assay for transposase-accessible chromatin with high-throughput sequencing (ATAC-seq) generates genome-wide chromatin accessibility profiles, providing valuable insights into epigenetic gene regulation at both pooled-cell and single-cell population levels. Comprehensive analysis of ATAC-seq data involves the use of various interdependent programs. Learning the correct sequence of steps needed to process the data can represent a major hurdle. Selecting appropriate parameters at each stage, including pre-analysis, core analysis, and advanced downstream analysis, is important to ensure accurate analysis and interpretation of ATAC-seq data. Additionally, obtaining and working within a limited computational environment presents a significant challenge to non-bioinformatic researchers. Therefore, we present Cloud ATAC, an open-source, cloud-based interactive framework with a scalable, flexible, and streamlined analysis framework based on the best practices approach for pooled-cell and single-cell ATAC-seq data. These frameworks use on-demand computational power and memory, scalability, and a secure and compliant environment provided by the Google Cloud. Additionally, we leverage Jupyter Notebook's interactive computing platform that combines live code, tutorials, narrative text, flashcards, quizzes, and custom visualizations to enhance learning and analysis. Further, leveraging GPU instances has significantly improved the run-time of the single-cell framework. The source codes and data are publicly available through NIH Cloud lab https://github.com/NIGMS/ATAC-Seq-and-Single-Cell-ATAC-Seq-Analysis. This manuscript describes the development of a resource module that is part of a learning platform named ``NIGMS Sandbox for Cloud-based Learning'' https://github.com/NIGMS/NIGMS-Sandbox. The overall genesis of the Sandbox is described in the editorial NIGMS Sandbox [1] at the beginning of this Supplement. This module delivers learning materials on the analysis of bulk and single-cell ATAC-seq data in an interactive format that uses appropriate cloud resources for data access and analyses.

Whole-genome bisulfite sequencing data analysis learning module on Google Cloud Platform.

This study describes the development of a resource module that is part of a learning platform named 'NIGMS Sandbox for Cloud-based Learning' https://github.com/NIGMS/NIGMS-Sandbox. The overall genesis of the Sandbox is described in the editorial NIGMS Sandbox at the beginning of this Supplement. This module is designed to facilitate interactive learning of whole-genome bisulfite sequencing (WGBS) data analysis utilizing cloud-based tools in Google Cloud Platform, such as Cloud Storage, Vertex AI notebooks and Google Batch. WGBS is a powerful technique that can provide comprehensive insights into DNA methylation patterns at single cytosine resolution, essential for understanding epigenetic regulation across the genome. The designed learning module first provides step-by-step tutorials that guide learners through two main stages of WGBS data analysis, preprocessing and the identification of differentially methylated regions. And then, it provides a streamlined workflow and demonstrates how to effectively use it for large datasets given the power of cloud infrastructure. The integration of these interconnected submodules progressively deepens the user's understanding of the WGBS analysis process along with the use of cloud resources. Through this module, we can enhance the accessibility and adoption of cloud computing in epigenomic research, speeding up the advancements in the related field and beyond. This manuscript describes the development of a resource module that is part of a learning platform named ``NIGMS Sandbox for Cloud-based Learning'' https://github.com/NIGMS/NIGMS-Sandbox. The overall genesis of the Sandbox is described in the editorial NIGMS Sandbox [1] at the beginning of this Supplement. This module delivers learning materials on the analysis of bulk and single-cell ATAC-seq data in an interactive format that uses appropriate cloud resources for data access and analyses.

A cloud-based training module for efficient de novo transcriptome assembly using Nextflow and Google cloud.

This study describes the development of a resource module that is part of a learning platform named "NIGMS Sandbox for Cloud-based Learning" (https://github.com/NIGMS/NIGMS-Sandbox). The overall genesis of the Sandbox is described in the editorial NIGMS Sandbox at the beginning of this Supplement. This module delivers learning materials on de novo transcriptome assembly using Nextflow in an interactive format that uses appropriate cloud resources for data access and analysis. Cloud computing is a powerful new means by which biomedical researchers can access resources and capacity that were previously either unattainable or prohibitively expensive. To take advantage of these resources, however, the biomedical research community needs new skills and knowledge. We present here a cloud-based training module, developed in conjunction with Google Cloud, Deloitte Consulting, and the NIH STRIDES Program, that uses the biological problem of de novo transcriptome assembly to demonstrate and teach the concepts of computational workflows (using Nextflow) and cost- and resource-efficient use of Cloud services (using Google Cloud Platform). Our work highlights the reduced necessity of on-site computing resources and the accessibility of cloud-based infrastructure for bioinformatics applications.

Cloud-based introduction to BASH programming for biologists.

This manuscript describes the development of a resource module that is part of a learning platform named 'NIGMS Sandbox for Cloud-based Learning', https://github.com/NIGMS/NIGMS-Sandbox. The overall genesis of the Sandbox is described in the editorial authored by National Institute of General Medical Sciences: NIGMS Sandbox: A Learning Platform toward Democratizing Cloud Computing for Biomedical Research at the beginning of this supplement. This module delivers learning materials introducing the utility of the BASH (Bourne Again Shell) programming language for genomic data analysis in an interactive format that uses appropriate cloud resources for data access and analyses. The next-generation sequencing revolution has generated massive amounts of novel biological data from a multitude of platforms that survey an ever-growing list of genomic modalities. These data require significant downstream computational and statistical analyses to glean meaningful biological insights. However, the skill sets required to generate these data are vastly different from the skills required to analyze these data. Bench scientists that generate next-generation data often lack the training required to perform analysis of these datasets and require support from bioinformatics specialists. Dedicated computational training is required to empower biologists in the area of genomic data analysis, however, learning to efficiently leverage a command line interface is a significant barrier in learning how to leverage common analytical tools. Cloud platforms have the potential to democratize access to the technical tools and computational resources necessary to work with modern sequencing data, providing an effective framework for bioinformatics education. This module aims to provide an interactive platform that slowly builds technical skills and knowledge needed to interact with genomics data on the command line in the Cloud. The sandbox format of this module enables users to move through the material at their own pace and test their grasp of the material with knowledge self-checks before building on that material in the next sub-module. This manuscript describes the development of a resource module that is part of a learning platform named ``NIGMS Sandbox for Cloud-based Learning'' https://github.com/NIGMS/NIGMS-Sandbox. The overall genesis of the Sandbox is described in the editorial NIGMS Sandbox [1] at the beginning of this Supplement. This module delivers learning materials on the analysis of bulk and single-cell ATAC-seq data in an interactive format that uses appropriate cloud resources for data access and analyses.

Reusable tutorials for using cloud-based computing environments for the analysis of bacterial gene expression data from bulk RNA sequencing.

This manuscript describes the development of a resource module that is part of a learning platform named "NIGMS Sandbox for Cloud-based Learning" https://github.com/NIGMS/NIGMS-Sandbox. The overall genesis of the Sandbox is described in the editorial NIGMS Sandbox at the beginning of this Supplement. This module delivers learning materials on RNA sequencing (RNAseq) data analysis in an interactive format that uses appropriate cloud resources for data access and analyses. Biomedical research is increasingly data-driven, and dependent upon data management and analysis methods that facilitate rigorous, robust, and reproducible research. Cloud-based computing resources provide opportunities to broaden the application of bioinformatics and data science in research. Two obstacles for researchers, particularly those at small institutions, are: (i) access to bioinformatics analysis environments tailored to their research; and (ii) training in how to use Cloud-based computing resources. We developed five reusable tutorials for bulk RNAseq data analysis to address these obstacles. Using Jupyter notebooks run on the Google Cloud Platform, the tutorials guide the user through a workflow featuring an RNAseq dataset from a study of prophage altered drug resistance in Mycobacterium chelonae. The first tutorial uses a subset of the data so users can learn analysis steps rapidly, and the second uses the entire dataset. Next, a tutorial demonstrates how to analyze the read count data to generate lists of differentially expressed genes using R/DESeq2. Additional tutorials generate read counts using the Snakemake workflow manager and Nextflow with Google Batch. All tutorials are open-source and can be used as templates for other analysis.

Identifying and training deep learning neural networks on biomedical-related datasets.

This manuscript describes the development of a resources module that is part of a learning platform named 'NIGMS Sandbox for Cloud-based Learning' https://github.com/NIGMS/NIGMS-Sandbox. The overall genesis of the Sandbox is described in the editorial NIGMS Sandbox at the beginning of this Supplement. This module delivers learning materials on implementing deep learning algorithms for biomedical image data in an interactive format that uses appropriate cloud resources for data access and analyses. Biomedical-related datasets are widely used in both research and clinical settings, but the ability for professionally trained clinicians and researchers to interpret datasets becomes difficult as the size and breadth of these datasets increases. Artificial intelligence, and specifically deep learning neural networks, have recently become an important tool in novel biomedical research. However, use is limited due to their computational requirements and confusion regarding different neural network architectures. The goal of this learning module is to introduce types of deep learning neural networks and cover practices that are commonly used in biomedical research. This module is subdivided into four submodules that cover classification, augmentation, segmentation and regression. Each complementary submodule was written on the Google Cloud Platform and contains detailed code and explanations, as well as quizzes and challenges to facilitate user training. Overall, the goal of this learning module is to enable users to identify and integrate the correct type of neural network with their data while highlighting the ease-of-use of cloud computing for implementing neural networks. This manuscript describes the development of a resource module that is part of a learning platform named ``NIGMS Sandbox for Cloud-based Learning'' https://github.com/NIGMS/NIGMS-Sandbox. The overall genesis of the Sandbox is described in the editorial NIGMS Sandbox [1] at the beginning of this Supplement. This module delivers learning materials on the analysis of bulk and single-cell ATAC-seq data in an interactive format that uses appropriate cloud resources for data access and analyses.

CCPA: cloud-based, self-learning modules for consensus pathway analysis using GO, KEGG and Reactome.

This manuscript describes the development of a resource module that is part of a learning platform named 'NIGMS Sandbox for Cloud-based Learning' (https://github.com/NIGMS/NIGMS-Sandbox). The module delivers learning materials on Cloud-based Consensus Pathway Analysis in an interactive format that uses appropriate cloud resources for data access and analyses. Pathway analysis is important because it allows us to gain insights into biological mechanisms underlying conditions. But the availability of many pathway analysis methods, the requirement of coding skills, and the focus of current tools on only a few species all make it very difficult for biomedical researchers to self-learn and perform pathway analysis efficiently. Furthermore, there is a lack of tools that allow researchers to compare analysis results obtained from different experiments and different analysis methods to find consensus results. To address these challenges, we have designed a cloud-based, self-learning module that provides consensus results among established, state-of-the-art pathway analysis techniques to provide students and researchers with necessary training and example materials. The training module consists of five Jupyter Notebooks that provide complete tutorials for the following tasks: (i) process expression data, (ii) perform differential analysis, visualize and compare the results obtained from four differential analysis methods (limma, t-test, edgeR, DESeq2), (iii) process three pathway databases (GO, KEGG and Reactome), (iv) perform pathway analysis using eight methods (ORA, CAMERA, KS test, Wilcoxon test, FGSEA, GSA, SAFE and PADOG) and (v) combine results of multiple analyses. We also provide examples, source code, explanations and instructional videos for trainees to complete each Jupyter Notebook. The module supports the analysis for many model (e.g. human, mouse, fruit fly, zebra fish) and non-model species. The module is publicly available at https://github.com/NIGMS/Consensus-Pathway-Analysis-in-the-Cloud. This manuscript describes the development of a resource module that is part of a learning platform named ``NIGMS Sandbox for Cloud-based Learning'' https://github.com/NIGMS/NIGMS-Sandbox. The overall genesis of the Sandbox is described in the editorial NIGMS Sandbox [1] at the beginning of this Supplement. This module delivers learning materials on the analysis of bulk and single-cell ATAC-seq data in an interactive format that uses appropriate cloud resources for data access and analyses.

Urban effects on local cloud patterns.

Urbanization extensively modifies surface roughness and properties, impacting regional climate and hydrological cycles. Urban effects on temperature and precipitation have drawn considerable attention. These associated physical processes are also closely linked to clouds' formation and dynamics. Cloud is one of the critical components in regulating urban hydrometeorological cycles but remains less understood in urban-atmospheric systems. We analyzed satellite-derived cloud patterns spanning two decades over 447 US cities and quantified the urban-influenced cloud patterns diurnally and seasonally. The systematic assessment suggests that most cities experience enhanced daytime cloud cover in both summer and winter; nocturnal cloud enhancement prevails in summer by 5.8%, while there is modest cloud suppression in winter nights. Statistically linking the cloud patterns with city properties, geographic locations, and climate backgrounds, we found that larger city size and stronger surface heating are primarily responsible for summer local cloud enhancement diurnally. Moisture and energy background control the urban cloud cover anomalies seasonally. Under strong mesoscale circulations induced by terrains and land-water contrasts, urban clouds exhibit considerable nighttime enhancement during warm seasons, which is relevant to strong urban surface heating interacting with these circulations, but other local and climate impacts remain complicated and inconclusive. Our research unveils extensive urban influences on local cloud patterns, but the effects are diverse depending on time, location, and city properties. The comprehensive observational study on urban-cloud interactions calls for more in-depth research on urban cloud life cycles and their radiative and hydrologic implications under the urban warming context.

Cloud microphysical response to entrainment and mixing is locally inhomogeneous and globally homogeneous: Evidence from the lab.

Entrainment of dry air into clouds strongly influences cloud optical and precipitation properties and the response of clouds to aerosol perturbations. The response of cloud droplet size distributions to entrainment-mixing is examined in the Pi convection-cloud chamber that creates a turbulent, steady-state cloud. The experiments are conducted by injecting dry air with temperature (Te) and flow rate (Qe) through a flange in the top boundary, into the otherwise well-mixed cloud, to mimic the entrainment-mixing process. Due to the large-scale circulation, the downwind region is directly affected by entrained dry air, whereas the upwind region is representative of the background conditions. Droplet concentration (Cn) and liquid water content (L) decrease in the downwind region, but the difference in the mean diameter of droplets (Dm) is small. The shape of cloud droplet size distributions relative to the injection point is unchanged, to within statistical uncertainty, resulting in a signature of inhomogeneous mixing, as expected for droplet evaporation times small compared to mixing time scales. As Te and Qe of entrained air increase, however, Cn, L, and Dm of the whole cloud system decrease, resulting in a signature of homogeneous mixing. The apparent contradiction is understood as the cloud microphysical responses to entrainment and mixing differing on local and global scales: locally inhomogeneous and globally homogeneous. This implies that global versus local sampling of clouds can lead to seemingly contradictory results for mixing, which informs the long-standing debate about the microphysical response to entrainment and the parameterization of this process for coarse-resolution models.

Cloud transition across the daily cycle illuminates model responses of trade cumuli to warming.

The response of trade cumulus clouds to warming remains a major source of uncertainty for climate sensitivity. Recent studies have highlighted the role of the cloud-convection coupling in explaining this spread in future warming estimates. Here, using observations from an instrumented site and an airborne field campaign, together with high-frequency climate model outputs, we show that i) over the course of the daily cycle, a cloud transition is observed from deeper cumuli during nighttime to shallower cumuli during daytime, ii) the cloud evolution that models predict from night to day reflects the strength of cloud sensitivity to convective mass flux and exhibits many similarities with the cloud evolution they predict under global warming, and iii) those models that simulate a realistic cloud transition over the daily cycle tend to predict weak trade cumulus feedback. Our findings thus show that the daily cycle is a particularly relevant testbed, amenable to process studies and anchored by observations, to assess and improve the model representation of cloud-convection coupling and thus make climate projections more reliable.

Global impacts of recent Southern Ocean cooling.

Since the beginning of the satellite era, Southern Ocean sea surface temperatures (SSTs) have cooled, despite global warming. While observed Southern Ocean cooling has previously been reported to have minimal impact on the tropical Pacific, the efficiency of this teleconnection has recently shown to be mediated by subtropical cloud feedbacks that are highly model-dependent. Here, we conduct a coupled model intercomparison of paired ensemble simulations under historical radiative forcing: one with freely evolving SSTs and the other with Southern Ocean SST anomalies constrained to follow observations. We reveal a global impact of observed Southern Ocean cooling in the model with stronger (and more realistic) cloud feedbacks, including Antarctic sea-ice expansion, southeastern tropical Pacific cooling, northward-shifted Hadley circulation, Aleutian low weakening, and North Pacific warming. Our results therefore suggest that observed Southern Ocean SST decrease might have contributed to cooler conditions in the eastern tropical Pacific in recent decades.

COWID: an efficient cloud-based genomics workflow for scalable identification of SARS-COV-2.

Implementing a specific cloud resource to analyze extensive genomic data on severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) poses a challenge when resources are limited. To overcome this, we repurposed a cloud platform initially designed for use in research on cancer genomics (https://cgc.sbgenomics.com) to enable its use in research on SARS-CoV-2 to build Cloud Workflow for Viral and Variant Identification (COWID). COWID is a workflow based on the Common Workflow Language that realizes the full potential of sequencing technology for use in reliable SARS-CoV-2 identification and leverages cloud computing to achieve efficient parallelization. COWID outperformed other contemporary methods for identification by offering scalable identification and reliable variant findings with no false-positive results. COWID typically processed each sample of raw sequencing data within 5 min at a cost of only US$0.01. The COWID source code is publicly available (https://github.com/hendrick0403/COWID) and can be accessed on any computer with Internet access. COWID is designed to be user-friendly; it can be implemented without prior programming knowledge. Therefore, COWID is a time-efficient tool that can be used during a pandemic.

Caught in the Act: Incipient Speciation at the Southern limit of Viburnum in the Central Andes.

A fundamental objective of evolutionary biology is to understand the origin of independently evolving species. Phylogenetic studies of species radiations rarely are able to document ongoing speciation; instead, modes of speciation, entailing geographic separation and/or ecological differentiation, are posited retrospectively. The Oreinotinus clade of Viburnum has radiated recently from north to south through the cloud forests of Mexico and Central America to the Central Andes. Our analyses support a hypothesis of incipient speciation in Oreinotinus at the southern edge of its geographic range, from central Peru to northern Argentina. Although several species and infraspecific taxa of have been recognized in this area, multiple lines of evidence and analytical approaches (including analyses of phylogenetic relationships, genetic structure, leaf morphology, and climatic envelopes) favor the recognition of just a single species, V. seemenii. We show that what has previously been recognized as V. seemenii f. minor has recently occupied the drier Tucuman-Bolivian forest region from Samaipata in Bolivia to Salta in northern Argentina. Plants in these populations form a well-supported clade with a distinctive genetic signature and they have evolved smaller, narrower leaves. We interpret this as the beginning of a within-species divergence process that has elsewhere in the neotropics resulted repeatedly in Viburnum species with a particular set of leaf ecomorphs. Specifically, the southern populations are in the process of evolving the small, glabrous, and entire leaf ecomorph that has evolved in four other montane areas of endemism. As predicted based on our studies of leaf ecomorphs in Chiapas, Mexico, these southern populations experience generally drier conditions, with large diurnal temperature fluctuations. In a central portion of the range of V. seemenii, characterized by wetter climatic conditions, we also document what may be the initial differentiation of the leaf ecomorph with larger, pubescent, and toothy leaves. The emergence of these ecomorphs thus appears to be driven by adaptation to subtly different climatic conditions in separate geographic regions, as opposed to parapatric differentiation along elevational gradients as suggested by Viburnum species distributions in other parts of the neotropics.

Estimated cloud-top entrainment index explains positive low-cloud-cover feedback.

How subtropical marine low cloud cover (LCC) will respond to global warming is a major source of uncertainty in future climate change. Although the estimated inversion strength (EIS) is a good predictive index of LCC, it has a serious limitation when applied to evaluate LCC changes due to warming: The LCC decreases despite increases in EIS in future climate simulations of global climate models (GCMs). In this work, using state-of-the-art GCMs, we show that the recently proposed estimated cloud-top entrainment index (ECTEI) decreases consistently with LCC in warmer sea surface temperature (SST) climates. For the patterned SST warming predicted by coupled GCMs, ECTEI can constrain the subtropical marine LCC feedback to -0.41 ± 0.28% K-1 (90% CI), implying virtually certain positive feedback. ECTEI physically explains the heuristic model for LCC changes based on a linear combination of EIS and SST changes in previous studies in terms of cloud-top entrainment processes.

Subtropical clouds key to Southern Ocean teleconnections to the tropical Pacific.

Excessive precipitation over the southeastern tropical Pacific is a major common bias that persists through generations of global climate models. While recent studies suggest an overly warm Southern Ocean as the cause, models disagree on the quantitative importance of this remote mechanism in light of ocean circulation feedback. Here, using a multimodel experiment in which the Southern Ocean is radiatively cooled, we show a teleconnection from the Southern Ocean to the tropical Pacific that is mediated by a shortwave subtropical cloud feedback. Cooling the Southern Ocean preferentially cools the southeastern tropical Pacific, thereby shifting the eastern tropical Pacific rainbelt northward with the reduced precipitation bias. Regional cloud locking experiments confirm that the teleconnection efficiency depends on subtropical stratocumulus cloud feedback. This subtropical cloud feedback is too weak in most climate models, suggesting that teleconnections from the Southern Ocean to the tropical Pacific are stronger than widely thought.