Time trends of 16 modifiable risk factors on the burden of major cancers among the Chinese population.

The cancer burden in China is increasing. We aimed to assess the time trends in the prevalence of 16 modifiable risk factors involved in lifestyle, diet, infection, and air pollution between 1997 and 2025 based on the China Health and Nutrition Survey, the Global Burden of Disease website, and publically available studies. The population attributable fraction (PAF) and its 95% uncertainty interval (UI) from 2007 to 2035 were calculated to quantify the attributable cancer burden in major 12 anatomic sites using the comparative risk assessment method, considering a 10-year lag effect. As a result, 1,559,476 cancer cases (PAF = 54.1%, 95% UI: 36.8%-65.8%) from the 12 anatomic sites were attributable to these modifiable risk factors in 2007, with lung, liver, and gastric cancer raging the top three. It was predicted that by 2035, the attributable cancer cases would reach 1,680,098 (PAF = 44.2%, 95% UI: 29.1%-55.5%), with the top three of lung, liver, and colorectal cancer. Smoking, physical inactivity, insufficient fruit consumption, HBV infection, and Helicobacter pylori infection were the most attributable risk factors in 2007, contributing to 480,352, 233,684, 215,009, 214,455, and 187,305 associated cancer cases, respectively. In 2035, the leading factors for cancer would be smoking, physical inactivity, insufficient fruit intake, HPV infection, and HBV infection, resulting in 427,445, 424,327, 185,144, 156,535, and 154,368 cancer cases, respectively. Intervention strategies should be swiftly established and dynamically altered in response to risk factors like smoking, physical inactivity, poor fruit intake, and infectious factors that may cause a high cancer burden in the Chinese population.

The low-carbon risk society: Dilemmas of risk-risk tradeoffs in energy innovations, transitions, and climate policy.

As countries and communities grapple with climate change, they seek to rapidly decarbonize their economies and cultures. A low-carbon future will likely depend on more distributed solar energy, the electrification of mobility, and more efficient homes and buildings. But what emergent risks are evident within this low-carbon society? This exploratory study first reviews the existing literature to identify 75 risk-risk tradeoffs by their category, medium of distribution, and type. It builds on these 75 examples to apply a typology of Risk Offsets, Risk Substitution, Risk Transfer, and Risk Transformation. Based on extensive document analysis, it applies that typology to three low-carbon innovations: solar energy, battery electric vehicles, and building energy efficiency retrofits, identifying 36 distinct risk-risk tradeoffs in total. As such, the paper moves to discuss complexities and challenges in risk management. In doing so, it calls for a more refined risk assessment that better accounts for decision-making considerations such as the magnitude or probability of risk, size of population exposed, certainty in risk estimation, severity of adverse outcome, distributional considerations, and the timing of risk impacts. It also summarizes emergent research gaps. Risk management in the context of climate action becomes a three-dimensional chess game of weighing risk transmission, risk mediums, and risk categories.

Which measures of perceived vulnerability predict protective intentions-and when?

Assessing perceived vulnerability to a health threat is essential to understanding how people conceptualize their risk, and to predicting how likely they are to engage in protective behaviors. However, there is limited consensus about which of many measures of perceived vulnerability predict behavior best. We tested whether the ability of different measures to predict protective intentions varies as a function of the type of information people learn about their risk. Online participants (N = 909) read information about a novel respiratory disease before answering measures of perceived vulnerability and vaccination intentions. Type-of-risk information was varied across three between-participant groups. Participants learned either: (1) only information about their comparative standing on the primary risk factors (comparative-only), (2) their comparative standing as well as the base-rate of the disease in the population (+ base-rate), or (3) their comparative standing as well as more specific estimates of their absolute risk (+ absolute-chart). Experiential and affective measures of perceived vulnerability predicted protective intentions well regardless of how participants learned about their risk, while the predictive ability of deliberative numeric and comparative measures varied based on the type of risk information provided. These results broaden the generalizability of key prior findings (i.e., some prior findings about which measures predict best may apply no matter how people learn about their risk), but the results also reveal boundary conditions and critical points of distinction for determining how to best assess perceived vulnerability.

Cardiovascular Disease Burden Attributable to High Body Mass Index in Taiwan.

Background: Studies on disease burden in Taiwan are lacking. We aimed to quantify the burden of cardiovascular disease (CVD) attributable to high body mass index (BMI) in Taiwan. Methods: Using a comparative risk assessment approach from the Global Burden of Disease study, we estimated the population attributable fraction (PAF), attributable CVD burden, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) according to sex, age, and area of residence in Taiwan. The BMI distribution for the population was obtained from the National Health Interview Survey in 2013. CVD was defined as an ischemic heart disease or stroke. Results: The attributable PAF for CVD from high BMI was 18.0% (19.6% in men and 15.6% in women), and it was highest (42.7%) in those aged 25-30 years. Adults aged 60-65 years had the highest absolute DALYs (11,546). The average relative age-standardized attributable burden was 314 DALYs per 100,000 person-years, and it was highest in those aged 75-80 years (1,407 DALYs per 100,000 person-years). Those living in Taitung County had the highest PAF of 21.9% and the highest age-standardized attributable burden (412 DALYs). Conclusions: In Taiwan, an 18% reduction in CVDs could be achieved if obesity/overweight was prevented. Prevention was most effective in early adulthood. The absolute CVD burden from obesity/overweight was highest in middle-aged men, and the relative burden was highest in older adults. Resource allocation in targeted populations and specific areas to eliminate CVD and health inequities is urgently required.

Risk Assessment for Longitudinal Trajectories of Modifiable Lifestyle Factors on Chronic Kidney Disease Burden in China: A Population-based Study.

BACKGROUND: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is an important contributor to morbidity and mortality from noncommunicable diseases. We aimed to examine the longitudinal trajectories in risk factors, estimate their impact on CKD burden in China from 1991 to 2011, and project trends in the next 20 years. METHODS: We used data from a cohort of the China Health and Nutrition Survey and applied the comparative risk assessment method to estimate the number of CKD events attributable to all non-optimal levels of each risk factors. RESULTS: In 2011, current smoking was the leading individual attributable factor for CKD burden in China responsible for 7.9 (95% confidence interval [CI], 7.5-8.3) million CKD cases with a population-attributable fraction of 8.7% (95% CI, 6.0-11.6), while the rates of smoking have reduced and may have mitigated the increase in CKD. High triglyceride (TG) and high systolic blood pressure (SBP) were the leading metabolic risk factors responsible for 6.8 (95% CI, 6.4-7.1) million and 5.8 (95% CI, 5.5-6.1) million CKD-attributable cases, respectively. Additionally, the number of CKD cases associated with high body mass index (BMI), high diastolic blood pressure (DBP), high plasma glucose, and low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) was 5.4 (95% CI, 5.1-5.6), 3.9 (95% CI, 3.7-4.1), 3.0 (95% CI, 2.8-3.1) and 2.6 (95% CI, 2.5-2.8) million, respectively. CONCLUSION: Current smoking, high TG, and high SBP were the top three risk factors that contributed to CKD burden in China. Increased BMI, DBP, plasma glucose, and decreased HDL-C were also associated with the increase in CKD burden.

Understanding the relationship between illness perceptions of breast cancer and perceived risk in a sample of U.A.E. female university students: the role of comparative risk.

BACKGROUND: In the Middle East region, the incidence of breast cancer (BC) has substantially increased in the last years. Despite a considerable body of research about BC in Arab countries, how illness perceptions of healthy women about BC may influence risk perception is unknown. METHODS: A cross-sectional survey was conducted on a sample of 298 young Emirati women. The measures included demographic information, illness perceptions, and risk perception. Descriptive and correlational analyses were performed to assess illness perceptions about BC, perceived individual risk and comparative risk. A structural equation modelling (S.E.M.) was built to investigate the relationship between illness perceptions and perceived individual risk. RESULTS: Participants reported negative illness perceptions about BC The individual risk perception and the compared risk perception for BC were low. Participants with a family history of BC reported more negative illness and higher risk perceptions. The relationship between illness perceptions and perceived individual risk was significant and mediated by compared risk. The S.E.M. explained 55.9% of the variance in predicting perceived individual risk for BC. CONCLUSION: Women's views of BC are important factors in risk perception and may provide culturally sensitive clues to promote early screening for BC in Arab countries. This may be important for policymakers to design intervention strategies to lower health risks, considering the different ways in which women perceive their risks for BC.

Comparative cardiometabolic risk of antipsychotics in children, adolescents and young adults.

Understanding different cardiometabolic safety profiles of antipsychotics helps avoid unintended outcomes among young patients. We conducted a population-based study to compare cardiometabolic risk among different antipsychotics in children, adolescents and young adults. From Taiwan's National Health Insurance Database, 2001-2013, we identified two patient cohorts aged 5-18 (children and adolescents) and 19-30 (young adults), diagnosed with psychiatric disorders and newly receiving antipsychotics, including haloperidol and sulpiride, and second generation antipsychotics (SGA, including olanzapine, quetiapine, risperidone, amisulpride, aripiprazole, paliperidone, and ziprasidone). Risperidone users were considered the reference group. We analyzed electronic medical records from seven hospitals in Taiwan and confirmed findings with validation analyses of identical design. Primary outcomes were composite cardiometabolic events, including type 2 diabetes mellitus, hypertension, dyslipidemia, and major adverse cardiovascular events. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression models compared cardiometabolic risk among antipsychotics. Among 29,030 patients aged 5-18 and 50,359 patients aged 19-30 years, we found 1200 cardiometabolic event cases during the total follow-up time of 37,420 person-years with an incidence of 32.1 per 1000 person-years. Compared to risperidone, olanzapine was associated with a significantly higher risk of cardiometabolic events in young adults (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.57; 95% CIs 1.13-2.18) but not in children and adolescents (1.85; 0.79-4.32). Specifically, we found young adult patients receiving haloperidol (1.52; 1.06-2.20) or olanzapine (1.75; 1.18-2.61) had higher risk of hypertension compared with risperidone users. Results from validation analyses concurred with main analyses. Antipsychotics' various risk profiles for cardiometabolic events merit consideration when selecting appropriate regimes. Due to cardiometabolic risk, we suggest clinicians may consider to select alternative antipsychotics to olanzapine in children, adolescents and young adults.

Comparative risk of osteoporotic fracture among patients with rheumatoid arthritis receiving TNF inhibitors versus other biologics: a cohort study.

In this population-based cohort study on comparative osteoporotic fracture risks between different biologic disease-modifying drugs among patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA), we did not find a significant difference in the risk of osteoporotic fractures between RA patients receiving TNF inhibitors versus abatacept or tocilizumab. INTRODUCTION: We aimed to investigate the comparative risk of osteoporotic fractures between rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients who initiated TNF inhibitors (TNFis) versus abatacept or tocilizumab. METHODS: Using the Korea National Health Insurance Service datasets from 2002 to 2016, RA patients who initiated TNFis, abatacept, or tocilizumab were identified. The primary outcome was a composite end point of non-vertebral fractures and hospitalized vertebral fractures; secondary outcomes were two components of the primary outcome and fractures occurring at the humerus/forearm. Propensity score (PS) matching with a variable ratio up to 10 TNFi initiators per 1 comparator drug initiator was used to adjust for > 50 baseline confounders. We estimated hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence interval (CI) of fractures comparing TNFi initiators to abatacept and to tocilizumab by Cox proportional hazard models stratified by a matching ratio. RESULTS: After PS-matching, 2307 TNFi initiators PS-matched on 588 abatacept initiators, and 2462 TNFi initiators on 640 tocilizumab initiators were included. A total of 77 fractures occurred during a mean follow-up of 454 days among TNFi and abatacept initiators and 83 fractures during 461 days among TNFi and tocilizumab initiators. The PS-matched HR (95% CI) was 0.91 (0.48-1.71) comparing TNFi versus abatacept initiators, and 1.00 (0.55-1.83) comparing TNFi versus tocilizumab initiators. Analysis on vertebral and non-vertebral fractures showed similar results. CONCLUSIONS: In this nationally representative cohort, we did not find a significant difference in the risk of fractures between TNFi initiators versus abatacept or tocilizumab among RA patients.

The burden of non-communicable diseases attributable to high BMI in Brazil, 1990-2017: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study.

BACKGROUND: The prevalence and burden of disease resulting from obesity have increased worldwide. In Brazil, more than half of the population is now overweight. However, the impact of this growing risk factor on disease burden remains inexact. Using the 2017 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) results, this study sought to estimate mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) lost to non-communicable diseases caused by high body mass index (BMI) in both sexes and across age categories. This study also aimed to describe the prevalence of overweight and obesity throughout the states of Brazil. METHODS: Age-standardized prevalence of overweight and obesity were estimated between 1990 and 2017. A comparative risk assessment was applied to estimate DALYs and deaths for non-communicable diseases and for all causes linked to high BMI. RESULTS: The prevalence of overweight and obesity increased during the period of analysis. Overall, age-standardized prevalence of obesity in Brazil was higher in females (29.8%) than in males (24.6%) in 2017; however, since 1990, males have presented greater rise in obesity (244.1%) than females (165.7%). Increases in prevalence burden were greatest in states from the North and Northeast regions of Brazil. Overall, burden due to high BMI also increased from 1990 to 2017. In 2017, high BMI was responsible for 12.3% (8.8-16.1%) of all deaths and 8.4% (6.3-10.7%) of total DALYs lost to non-communicable diseases, up from 7.2% (4.1-10.8%), and 4.6% (2.4-6.0%) in 1990, respectively. Change due to risk exposure is the leading contributor to the growth of BMI burden in Brazil. In 2017, high BMI was responsible for 165,954 deaths and 5,095,125 DALYs. Cardiovascular disease and diabetes have proven to be the most prevalent causes of deaths, along with DALYs caused by high BMI, regardless of sex or state. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates increasing age-standardized prevalence of obesity in all Brazilian states. High BMI plays an important role in disease burdens in terms of cardiovascular diseases, diabetes, and all causes of mortality. Assessing levels and trends in exposures to high BMI and the resulting disease burden highlights the current priority for primary prevention and public health action initiatives focused on obesity.

Environmental and health impacts of transportation and land use scenarios in 2061.

We compared numbers of trips and distances by transport mode, air pollution and health impacts of a Business As Usual (BAU) and an Ideal scenario with urban densification and reductions in car share (76%-62% in suburbs; 55%-34% in urban areas) for the Greater Montreal (Canada) for 2061. We estimated the population in 87 municipalities using a demographic model and population projections. Year 2031 (Y2031) trips (from mode choice modeling) and distances were used to estimate those of Y2061. Emissions of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and carbon dioxide (CO2) were estimated and NO2 used with dispersion modeling to estimate concentrations. Walking and Public Transit (PT) use and corresponding distances walked in Y2061 were >70% higher for the Ideal scenario vs the BAU, while car share and distances were <40% lower. NO2 levels were slightly lower in the Ideal scenario vs the BAU, but always higher in the urban core. Health impacts, summarized with disability adjusted life years (DALY), differed between urban and suburb areas but globally, the Ideal scenario reduced the impacts of the Y2061 BAU by 33% DALY. Percentages of car and PT trips were similar for the Y2031 and Y2061 BAU but kms travelled by car, CO2 and NO2 increased, due to increased populations. Drastic measures to decrease car share appear necessary to substantially reduce impacts of transportation.

'The lesser devil you don't know': a qualitative study of smokers' responses to messages communicating comparative risk of electronic and combusted cigarettes.

INTRODUCTION: Communicating to smokers that e-cigarettes deliver lower levels of harmful chemicals than combusted cigarettes is a challenging issue. This study qualitatively explored smokers' interpretations of messages communicating the risk of e-cigarettes relative to cigarettes (comparative risk messages). METHOD: We developed 12 print comparative risk messages and evaluated them in 12 focus groups with 72 adult smokers (18+ years old) in Atlanta, Georgia. RESULTS: Participants interpreted uncertainty about health effects of e-cigarettes as an indicator of significant unknown risks, which some believed to be potentially more severe than the known effects of cigarettes (such as cancer and heart disease). Also, participants were sceptical about the lower risk claims. Some participants misinterpreted what 'switching completely' or 'switching 100% of the time' means, perceiving switching from e-cigarettes to combusted cigarettes as comparable with the use of both products. When chemicals in e-cigarettes were mentioned (eg, nicotine or formaldehyde), participants viewed e-cigarettes as very harmful and had difficulty reconciling this belief with the reduced risk claim. Comparative risk messages emphasising smoking risks were perceived as effective. Participants also appreciated being given an option to switch if they cannot quit. Participants suggested the inclusion of more facts and statistics and a credible message source (eg, public health agencies) to increase message effectiveness. CONCLUSION: Comparative risk messages may be more acceptable to smokers if they show direct comparisons of the number of toxic chemicals in cigarettes and e-cigarettes, are attributed to a credible source(s), and emphasise smoking risks.

A Comparative Cancer Risk Evaluation of MTBE and Other Compounds (Including Naturally Occurring Compounds) in Drinking Water in New Hampshire.

Methyl tert-butyl ether (MTBE) was added to gasoline in New Hampshire (NH) between 1995 and 2006 to comply with the oxygenate requirements of the 1990 Amendments to the Clean Air Act. Leaking tanks and spills released MTBE into groundwater, and as a result, MTBE has been detected in drinking water in NH. We conducted a comparative cancer risk assessment and a margin-of-safety (MOS) analysis for several constituents, including MTBE, detected in NH drinking water. Using standard risk assessment methods, we calculated cancer risks from exposure to 12 detected volatile organic compounds (VOCs), including MTBE, and to four naturally occurring compounds (i.e., arsenic, radium-226, radium-228, and radon-222) detected in NH public water supplies. We evaluated exposures to a hypothetical resident ingesting the water, dermally contacting the water while showering, and inhaling compounds volatilizing from water in the home. We then compared risk estimates for MTBE to those of the other 15 compounds. From our analysis, we concluded that the high-end cancer risk from exposure to MTBE in drinking water is lower than the risks from all the other VOCs evaluated and several thousand times lower than the risks from exposure to naturally occurring constituents, including arsenic, radium, and radon. We also conducted an MOS analysis in which we compared toxicological points of departure to the NH maximum contaminant level (MCL) of 13 µg/L. All of the MOSs were greater than or equal to 160,000, indicating a large margin of safety and demonstrating the health-protectiveness of the NH MCL for MTBE.

Intake of 12 food groups and disability-adjusted life years from coronary heart disease, stroke, type 2 diabetes, and colorectal cancer in 16 European countries.

Our aim was to estimate and rank 12 food groups according to disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from coronary heart disease (CHD), stroke, type 2 diabetes (T2D), and colorectal cancer (CRC) in 16 European countries. De novo published non-linear dose-response meta-analyses of prospective studies (based on 297 primary reports), and food consumption data from the European Food Safety Authority Comprehensive European Food Consumption Database in Exposure Assessment, and DALY estimates from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation were used. By implementing disease-specific counterfactual scenarios of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMRELs), the proportion of DALYs attributed to 12 food groups was estimated. In addition, a novel modelling approach was developed to obtain a single (optimized) TMREL across diseases. Four scenarios were analysed (A: disease-specific TMRELs/all food-disease associations; B: disease-specific TMRELs/only significant food-disease associations; C: single TMREL/all food-disease associations; D: single TMREL/only significant food-disease associations). Suboptimal food intake was associated with the following proportions of DALYs; Scenario A (highest-estimate) and D (lowest-estimate): CHD (A: 67%, D: 52%), stroke (A: 49%, D: 30%), T2D (A: 57%, D: 51%), and CRC (A: 54%, D: 40%). Whole grains (10%) had the highest impact on DALYs, followed by nuts (7.1%), processed meat (6.4%), fruit (4.4%) and fish and legumes (4.2%) when combining all scenarios. The contribution to total DALYs of all food groups combined in the different scenarios ranged from 41-52% in Austria to 51-69% in the Czech-Republic. These findings could have important implications for planning future food-based dietary guidelines as a public health nutrition strategy.

Health impact assessment of PM2.5 from a planned coal-fired power plant in Taiwan.

PURPOSE: To investigate the impact of a planned coal-fired power plant (CFPPT) in Shenao on air quality and health at subnational levels in Taiwan. METHODS: We applied the Gaussian trajectory transfer-coefficient (GTx) model to estimate annual average PM2.5 (particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter less than 2.5 µm) increments in 19 Taiwanese cities and counties caused by CFPPT operation. A population health risk assessment was performed by incorporating evidence of the health effects of PM2.5 provided by prospective studies and estimating long-term PM2.5 exposure. Additionally, we considered ischemic heart disease, stroke, lung cancer, and chronic obstruct pulmonary disease as the primary outcomes. The population-attributable fraction was used to estimate the county-level mortality burden attributable to CFPPT-generated PM2.5 in 2025. RESULTS: The estimated annual PM2.5 increments ranged from 0.004 µg/m3 (Taitung County) to 0.28 µg/m3 (Hsinchu County) due to the Shenao CFPPT. The total and premature deaths attributable to PM2.5 from Shenao CFPPT operation in Taiwan during 2025-2040 would be 576 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 537-619) and 145 (95% CI: 136-155), respectively. Notably, we estimated 198 (95% CI: 169-234) deaths and 58 (95% CI: 51-66) premature deaths, respectively, in New Taipei City, which accounted for over a quarter of the total deaths. Overall, the mortality rate attributable to the Shenao CFPPT in Taiwan was 6 per 10,000. CONCLUSION: A scientific approach should be adopted for assessing the impacts of CFPPT operation on population health, which can serve as a valuable policymaking reference for the government.

The burden of cardio-cerebrovascular disease and lung cancer attributable to PM2.5 for 2009, Guangzhou: a retrospective population-based study.

Particulate matter pollution has become a widely-concerned issue in public health and led to a substantial loss of health. The study reports relationship between particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter <2.5 µm (PM2.5) and years of life lost (YLL) in Guangzhou. A retrospective burden analysis on annual mean PM2.5 data was conducted. Data on annual mortality were collected for 2009, from the Health Department of Guangzhou. Data on particulate matter were collected for period 2006-2009. Comparative risk assessment and exposure-response function were used to estimate attributable YLL. The exposure to PM2.5 was associated with a total of 454.6 YLLs (95% uncertainty interval 449.0-460.1) per 100,000 people in 2009. This study has confirmed the substantial adverse health effects of PM2.5 exposure in population with cardio-cerebrovascular disease and lung cancer. This study highlights the need to reduce ambient particulate pollution for better environmental health and lower burden of disease.

Occupational exposures and cancer: a review of agents and relative risk estimates.

OBJECTIVES: The contribution of occupational exposures to the cancer burden can be estimated using population-attributable fractions, which is of great importance for policy making. This paper reviews occupational carcinogens, and presents the most relevant risk relations to cancer in high-income countries using France as an example, to provide a framework for national estimation of cancer burden attributable to occupational exposure. METHODS: Occupational exposures that should be included in cancer burden studies were evaluated using multiple criteria: classified as carcinogenic or probably carcinogenic by the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) Monographs volumes 1-114, being a primary occupational exposure, historical and current presence of the exposure in France and the availability of exposure and risk relation data. Relative risk estimates were obtained from published systematic reviews and from the IARC Monographs. RESULTS: Of the 118 group 1 and 75 group 2A carcinogens, 37 exposures and 73 exposure-cancer site pairs were relevant. Lung cancer was associated with the most occupational carcinogenic exposures (namely, 18), followed by bladder cancer and non-Hodgkin's lymphoma. Ionising radiation was associated with the highest number of cancer sites (namely, 20), followed by asbestos and working in the rubber manufacturing industry. Asbestos, bis(chloromethyl)ether, nickel and wood dust had the strongest effect on cancer, with relative risks above 5. CONCLUSIONS: A large number of occupational exposures continues to impact the burden of cancer in high-income countries such as France. Information on types of exposures, affected jobs, industries and cancer sites affected is key for prioritising policy and prevention initiatives.

Adult mortality of diseases and injuries attributable to selected metabolic, lifestyle, environmental, and infectious risk factors in Taiwan: a comparative risk assessment.

BACKGROUND: To facilitate priority-setting in health policymaking, we compiled the best available information to estimate the adult mortality (>30 years) burden attributable to 13 metabolic, lifestyle, infectious, and environmental risk factors in Taiwan. METHODS: We obtained data on risk factor exposure from nationally representative health surveys, cause-specific mortality from the National Death Registry, and relative risks from epidemiological studies and meta-analyses. We applied the comparative risk assessment framework to estimate mortality burden attributable to individual risk factors or risk factor clusters. RESULTS: In 2009, high blood glucose accounted for 14,900 deaths (95% UI: 11,850-17,960), or 10.4% of all deaths in that year. It was followed by tobacco smoking (13,340 deaths, 95% UI: 10,330-16,450), high blood pressure (11,190 deaths, 95% UI: 8,190-14,190), ambient particulate matter pollution (8,600 deaths, 95% UI: 7,370-9,840), and dietary risks (high sodium intake and low intake of fruits and vegetables, 7,890 deaths, 95% UI: 5,970-9,810). Overweight-obesity and physical inactivity accounted for 7,620 deaths (95% UI: 6,040-9,190), and 7,400 deaths (95% UI: 6,670-8,130), respectively. The cardiometabolic risk factors of high blood pressure, high blood glucose, high cholesterol, and overweight-obesity jointly accounted for 12,120 deaths (95% UI: 11,220-13,020) from cardiovascular diseases. For domestic risk factors, infections from hepatitis B virus (HBV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) were responsible for 6,300 deaths (95% UI: 5,610-6,980) and 3,170 deaths (95% UI: 1,860-4,490), respectively, and betel nut use was associated with 1,780 deaths from oral, laryngeal, and esophageal cancer (95% UI: 1,190-2,360). The leading risk factors for years of life lost were similar, but the impact of tobacco smoking and alcohol use became larger because the attributable deaths from these risk factors occurred among young adults aged less than 60 years. CONCLUSIONS: High blood glucose, tobacco smoking, and high blood pressure are the major risk factors for deaths from diseases and injuries among Taiwanese adults. A large number of years of life would be gained if the 13 modifiable risk factors could be removed or reduced to the optimal level.

Quantifying the global contribution of alcohol consumption to cardiomyopathy.

BACKGROUND: The global impact of alcohol consumption on deaths due to cardiomyopathy (CM) has not been quantified to date, even though CM contains a subcategory for alcoholic CM with an effect of heavy drinking over time as the postulated underlying causal mechanism. In this feasibility study, a model to estimate the alcohol-attributable fraction (AAF) of CM deaths based on alcohol exposure measures is proposed. METHODS: A two-step model was developed based on aggregate-level data from 95 countries, including the most populous (data from 2013 or last available year). First, the crude mortality rate of alcoholic CM per 1,000,000 adults was predicted using a negative binomial regression based on prevalence of alcohol use disorders (AUD) and adult alcohol per capita consumption (APC) (n = 52 countries). Second, the proportion of alcoholic CM among all CM deaths (i.e., AAF) was predicted using a fractional response probit regression with alcoholic CM crude mortality rate (from Step 1), AUD prevalence, APC per drinker, and Global Burden of Disease region as predictions. Additional models repeated these steps by sex and for the wider Global Burden of Disease study definition of CM. RESULTS: There were strong correlations (>0.9) between the crude mortality rate of alcoholic CM and the AAFs, supporting the modeling strategy. In the first step, the population-weighted mean crude mortality rate was estimated at 8.4 alcoholic CM deaths per 1,000,000 (95% CI: 7.4-9.3). In the second step, the global AAFs were estimated at 6.9% (95% CI: 5.4-8.4%). Sex-specific figures suggested a lower AAF among females (2.9%, 95% CI: 2.3-3.4%) as compared to males (8.9%, 95% CI: 7.0-10.7%). Larger deviations between observed and predicted AAFs were found in Eastern Europe and Central Asia. CONCLUSIONS: The model proposed promises to fill the gap to include AAFs for CM into comparative risk assessments in the future. These predictions likely will be underestimates because of the stigma involved in all fully alcohol-attributable conditions and subsequent problems in coding of alcoholic CM deaths.

A Comparative Exposure Assessment of Campylobacter in Ontario, Canada.

To inform source attribution efforts, a comparative exposure assessment was developed to estimate the relative exposure to Campylobacter, the leading bacterial gastrointestinal disease in Canada, for 13 different transmission routes within Ontario, Canada, during the summer. Exposure was quantified with stochastic models at the population level, which incorporated measures of frequency, quantity ingested, prevalence, and concentration, using data from FoodNet Canada surveillance, the peer-reviewed and gray literature, other Ontario data, and data that were specifically collected for this study. Models were run with @Risk software using Monte Carlo simulations. The mean number of cells of Campylobacter ingested per Ontarian per day during the summer, ranked from highest to lowest is as follows: household pets, chicken, living on a farm, raw milk, visiting a farm, recreational water, beef, drinking water, pork, vegetables, seafood, petting zoos, and fruits. The study results identify knowledge gaps for some transmission routes, and indicate that some transmission routes for Campylobacter are underestimated in the current literature, such as household pets and raw milk. Many data gaps were identified for future data collection consideration, especially for the concentration of Campylobacter in all transmission routes.

Temporal Trend in Lung Cancer Burden Attributed to Ambient Fine Particulate Matter in Guangzhou, China.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the lung cancer burden that may be attributable to ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) pollution in Guangzhou city in China from 2005 to 2013. METHODS: The data regarding PM2.5 exposure were obtained from the 'Ambient air pollution exposure estimation for the Global Burden of Disease 2013' dataset at 0.1° ×0.1° spatial resolution. Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) were estimated based on the information of mortality and incidence of lung cancer. Comparative risk analysis and integrated exposure-response function were used to estimate attributed disease burden. RESULTS: The population-weighted average concentration of PM2.5 was increased by 34.6% between 1990 and 2013, from 38.37 µg/m3 to 51.31 µg/m3. The lung cancer DALYs in both men and women were increased by 36.2% from 2005 to 2013. The PM2.5 attributed lung cancer DALYs increased from 12105.0 (8181.0 for males and 3924.0 for females) in 2005 to 16489.3 (11291.7 for males and 5197.6 for females) in 2013. An average of 23.1% lung cancer burden was attributable to PM2.5 pollution in 2013. CONCLUSION: PM2.5 has caused serious but under-appreciated public health burden in Guangzhou and the trend deteriorates. Effective strategies are needed to tackle this major public health problem.