Dynamic site index models sensitive to ecoregional variability for Scots pine stands in Western Black Sea Region of Türkiye.

Site productivity, defined as the production amount of the stand at a specific age, has a significant impact on the growth of the stand and site index is used as an indicator of site productivity. The objective of this study is to develop ecoregion-based dynamic site index models for Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) stands in the Kastamonu and Sinop regions of Türkiye. The mixed-effects modeling approach allowing for the inclusion of ecoregions in the models was used to develop dynamic site index models, and the models derived from seven base models were tested. The best model was selected based on statistical criteria. As a result of statistical analyses and graphical examinations, the King-Prodan model was found to yield the best predictive results in terms of growth patterns. The site index model based on the King-Prodan method produced a coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.977. The statistical criteria for this model are as follows: Akaike information criterion (AIC) of 4931.052, Bayesian information criterion (BIC) of 4968.933, root mean square error (RMSE) of 1.218, and mean error (ME) of - 0.036. The F-test was used to test whether there was a statistically significant difference in dominant heights between ecoregions. The results demonstrated that the dominant heights exhibited statistically significant differences among the ecoregions. Consequently, it is of paramount importance to utilize ecoregion-based dynamic site index models in order to achieve reliable and accurate predictions.

Global trends, biases and gaps in the scientific literature about freshwater fish eggs and larvae.

Syntheses of knowledge are important to reveal trends, biases and gaps in the scientific literature, indicating main data shortfalls and research needs. In this regard, the authors conducted a broad systematic review on the literature about freshwater fish eggs and larvae to investigate (a) temporal trends in the global scientific production, (b) the scope and habitat types, (c) the spatial distribution of studies, (d) the fish species contemplated and their respective conservation status and (e) the factors associated with the spatial distribution of studies. They analysed 654 studies published between 1950 and 2020. The number of studies has increased over time, but with a weak trend. Most studies investigated basic questions about biology and ecology and were carried out chiefly in rivers and lakes. These studies covered 95 freshwater ecoregions (22.3% of all ecoregions) and recorded 871 fish species (4.8% of all freshwater fish currently described). Most species were assessed by the IUCN and classified into six threat categories, but approximately 35% were not evaluated. The main drivers affecting the spatial distribution of studies were ecoregion area, road density, river volume and the number of hydroelectric plants. Results point to significant biases and gaps in the global scientific literature on fish eggs and larvae, especially associated with habitat type, spatial distribution and target species, emphasizing the need to address specific topics. Such biases and gaps indicate the existence of important data shortfalls, which compromise management and conservation planning, as information on fish eggs and larvae is basic and critical for the assessment of fish recruitment and population dynamics.

Accelerated shifts in terrestrial life zones under rapid climate change.

Rapid climate change is impacting biodiversity, ecosystem function, and human well-being. Though the magnitude and trajectory of climate change are becoming clearer, our understanding of how these changes reshape terrestrial life zones-distinct biogeographic units characterized by biotemperature, precipitation, and aridity representing broad-scale ecosystem types-is limited. To address this gap, we used high-resolution historical climatologies and climate projections to determine the global distribution of historical (1901-1920), contemporary (1979-2013), and future (2061-2080) life zones. Comparing the historical and contemporary distributions shows that changes from one life zone to another during the 20th century impacted 27 million km2 (18.3% of land), with consequences for social and ecological systems. Such changes took place in all biomes, most notably in Boreal Forests, Temperate Coniferous Forests, and Tropical Coniferous Forests. Comparing the contemporary and future life zone distributions shows the pace of life zone changes accelerating rapidly in the 21st century. By 2070, such changes would impact an additional 62 million km2 (42.6% of land) under "business-as-usual" (RCP8.5) emissions scenarios. Accelerated rates of change are observed in hundreds of ecoregions across all biomes except Tropical Coniferous Forests. While only 30 ecoregions (3.5%) had over half of their areas change to a different life zone during the 20th century, by 2070 this number is projected to climb to 111 ecoregions (13.1%) under RCP4.5 and 281 ecoregions (33.2%) under RCP8.5. We identified weak correlations between life zone change and threatened vertebrate richness, levels of vertebrate endemism, cropland extent, and human population densities within ecoregions, illustrating the ubiquitous risks of life zone changes to diverse social-ecological systems. The accelerated pace of life zone changes will increasingly challenge adaptive conservation and sustainable development strategies that incorrectly assume current ecological patterns and livelihood provisioning systems will persist.

No evidence that seasonal changes in large-scale environmental conditions drive migration in seabirds.

Seasonal variability is one of the main drivers of seasonal movements like migration. The literature has suggested that bird migration is often driven by poor environmental conditions during one season and permits avoidance of resource shortage or harsh weather by tracking the more favourable conditions. We tested at the global scale, and focusing on seabirds, whether this pattern exists in the marine realm. Specifically, we tested the hypothesis that seabird migration permits achieving stability in niche occupancy, and that it is triggered by seasonal variations in niche availability. We collated data on monthly presence of species over marine ecoregions from literature and expert knowledge. First, we quantified niche occupancy during breeding and non-breeding periods from environmental conditions encountered in ecoregions in which species were present at each periods and compared seasonal dynamics across migratory strategies. Second, we quantified the seasonal niche dynamics from simulated residency in breeding and non-breeding grounds to quantify the seasonality in niche availability and to test its effect on seabird migratory strategies. We demonstrated that all seabirds are niche trackers, yet resident and dispersive seabirds displayed higher levels of niche tracking throughout the year, regardless of the environmental seasonality, while migrants exhibited more divergent seasonal niches. In most cases, migratory status was not related to the unavailability of favourable conditions at the breeding or non-breeding grounds, suggesting that the availability of the favourable niche is not the main driver of migration. We hypothesise that this unexpected pattern might arise from strong constraints imposed on seabirds by the scarcity of suitable breeding sites which constrain the range of environments available for optimising reproductive success. This work sheds new light on the ecological drivers of migration.

Evaluation of tropical-temperate transitions: An example of climatic characterization in the Asian Palmate group of Araliaceae.

PREMISE: There has been a great increase in using climatic data in phylogenetic studies over the past decades. However, compiling the high-quality spatial data needed to perform accurate climatic reconstructions is time-consuming and can result in poor geographical coverage. Therefore, researchers often resort to qualitative approximations. Our aim was to evaluate the climatic characterization of the genera of the Asian Palmate Group (AsPG) of Araliaceae as an exemplar lineage of plants showing tropical-temperate transitions. METHODS: We compiled a curated worldwide spatial database of the AsPG genera and created five raster layers representing bioclimatic regionalizations of the world. Then, we crossed the database with the layers to climatically characterize the AsPG genera. RESULTS: We found large disagreement in the climatic characterization of genera among regionalizations and little support for the climatic nature of the tropical-temperate distribution of the AsPG. Both results are attributed to the complexity of delimiting tropical, subtropical, and temperate climates in the world and to the distribution of the study group in regions with transitional climatic conditions. CONCLUSIONS: The complexity in the climatic classification of this example of the tropical-temperate transitions calls for a general climatic revision of other tropical-temperate lineages. In fact, we argue that, to properly evaluate tropical-temperate transitions across the tree of life, we cannot ignore the complexity of distribution ranges.

Review of the parasitic nematodes of marine fishes from off the American continent.

The ichthyofauna of the Atlantic and Pacific coasts off the American continent is very rich. Consequently, a high biodiversity of nematodes parasitizing these vertebrates is also expected. Currently, data on nematode parasites of marine fish off the Americas are fragmented. A review of all adult nematode species reported parasitizing marine fish from off the American continent is herein presented, as well as comments on their patterns of diversity, life cycles and advances in the taxonomic and phylogenetic knowledge. A total of 209 valid species, 19 species inquirendae and 6 dubious records have been recorded, the majority from the fish taxa Eupercaria and Perciformes. The families Sciaenidae, Serranidae and Lutjanidae, as well as the tropical and temperate Atlantic waters, exhibited the highest records of parasitic nematodes. The Cucullanidae, Philometridae and Cystidicolidae were the most speciose families of nematodes, which may be related to technological advances and relatively recent efforts of taxonomists, resulting in description of new taxa and the resolution of taxonomic problems. Numerous taxonomic questions still need resolution and, even though genetic data have been important for this process, the database is very scarce. This is the first review on all currently known nematode species parasitizing marine fish off the Americas and may serve as an important basis of reference for future approaches on these organisms.

Diversity, distribution and extinction risk of native freshwater fishes of South Africa.

Extinction risk for 101 valid species and 18 unique genetic lineages of native freshwater fishes of South Africa was assessed in 2016 following the IUCN Red List criteria. An additional five species (three new species that were described and two species that were revalidated subsequent to the 2016 assessments) were assessed in the present study. A synthesis of the outcome of the assessments of the 106 valid species and 18 genetic lineages indicates that 45 (36%) of South Africa's freshwater fish taxa are threatened (7 Critically Endangered, 25 Endangered, 13 Vulnerable). Of the remaining taxa, 17 (14%) are listed as Near Threatened, 57 (46%) are Least Concern and five (4%) are Data Deficient. More than 60% of the endemic taxa are threatened. The Cape Fold Ecoregion has the highest proportion of threatened taxa (67%) due to the existence of a unique assemblage of narrow-range endemic species. Galaxias and Pseudobarbus have the highest number of highly threatened taxa as most of the species and lineages in these genera are classified as either CR or EN. Major threats to the native freshwater fishes of the country are invasive fish species, deterioration of water quality, impoundments and excessive water abstraction, land use changes and modification of riverine habitats. Immediate conservation efforts should focus on securing remnant populations of highly threatened taxa and preventing deterioration in threat status, because recovery is rare. Accurate delimitation of species boundaries, mapping their distribution ranges, improved knowledge of pressures and long-term monitoring of population trends need to be prioritised to generate credible data for the 2026 IUCN threat status assessments and designation of important fish areas as part of the National Freshwater Ecosystem Priority Areas (NFEPA) initiative.

Marine diversity patterns in Australia are filtered through biogeography.

Latitudinal diversity gradients are among the most striking patterns in nature. Despite a large body of work investigating both geographic and environmental drivers, biogeographical provinces have not been included in statistical models of diversity patterns. Instead, spatial studies tend to focus on species-area and local-regional relationships. Here, we investigate correlates of a latitudinal diversity pattern in Australian coastal molluscs. We use an online database of greater than 300 000 specimens and quantify diversity using four methods to account for sampling variation. Additionally, we present a biogeographic scheme using factor analysis that allows for both gradients and sharp boundaries between clusters. The factors are defined on the basis of species composition and are independent of diversity. Regardless of the measure used, diversity is not directly explained by combinations of abiotic variables. Instead, transitions between regions better explain the observed patterns. Biogeographic gradients can in turn be explained by environmental variables, suggesting that environmental controls on diversity may be indirect. Faunas within provinces are homogeneous regardless of environmental variability. Thus, transitions between provinces explain most of the variation in diversity because small-scale factors are dampened. This explanation contrasts with the species-energy hypothesis. Future work should more carefully consider biogeographic gradients when investigating diversity patterns.

Assessing the current state of ecological connectivity in a large marine protected area system.

The establishment of marine protected areas (MPAs) is a critical step in ensuring the continued persistence of marine biodiversity. Although the area protected in MPAs is growing, the movement of individuals (or larvae) among MPAs, termed connectivity, has only recently been included as an objective of many MPAs. As such, assessing connectivity is often neglected or oversimplified in the planning process. For promoting population persistence, it is important to ensure that protected areas in a system are functionally connected through dispersal or adult movement. We devised a multi-species model of larval dispersal for the Australian marine environment to evaluate how much local scale connectivity is protected in MPAs and determine whether the extensive system of MPAs truly functions as a network. We focused on non-migratory species with simplified larval behaviors (i.e., passive larval dispersal) (e.g., no explicit vertical migration) as an illustration. Of all the MPAs analyzed (approximately 2.7 million km2 ), outside the Great Barrier Reef and Ningaloo Reef, <50% of MPAs (46-80% of total MPA area depending on the species considered) were functionally connected. Our results suggest that Australia's MPA system cannot be referred to as a single network, but rather a collection of numerous smaller networks delineated by natural breaks in the connectivity of reef habitat. Depending on the dispersal capacity of the taxa of interest, there may be between 25 and 47 individual ecological networks distributed across the Australian marine environment. The need to first assess the underlying natural connectivity of a study system prior to implementing new MPAs represents a key research priority for strategically enlarging MPA networks. Our findings highlight the benefits of integrating multi-species connectivity into conservation planning to identify opportunities to better incorporate connectivity into the design of MPA systems and thus to increase their capacity to support long-term, sustainable biodiversity outcomes.

Valoración del Estado Actual de la Conectividad Ecológica en un Sistema Extenso de Áreas Marinas Protegidas Resumen La creación de áreas marinas protegidas (AMP) es un paso muy importante para asegurar la persistencia de la biodiversidad marina. Aunque el área protegida dentro de las AMP está creciendo, el movimiento de individuos (o larvas) entre las AMP, denominado conectividad, sólo ha sido incluido recientemente como un objetivo para muchas AMP. Por lo anterior es normal que con frecuencia se ignora la evaluación de la conectividad o se sobresimplifica durante el proceso de planeación. Para promover la persistencia poblacional es importante asegurar que las áreas protegidas en un sistema estén conectadas funcionalmente por medio de la dispersión o el movimiento de individuos adultos. Diseñamos un modelo multiespecie de la dispersión larval para el ambiente marino australiano y así evaluar cuán protegida está la conectividad a escala local en las AMP y determinar si el sistema extensivo de AMP realmente funciona como una red. Nuestro diseño se enfocó en especies no migratorias con comportamientos larvales simplificados (es decir, dispersión larval pasiva) (p. ej.: sin migración vertical explícita) como un ejemplo. De todas las AMP analizadas (aproximadamente 2.7 millones de km2 ), fuera de la Gran Barrera de Arrecifes y el Arrecife Ningaloo, <50% de las AMP (46-80% del área total de la MPA dependiendo de la especie considerada) estaba conectado funcionalmente. Nuestros resultados sugieren que el sistema de AMP australiano no puede ser considerado como una sola red sino más bien como una colección de numerosas redes más pequeñas delineadas por interrupciones naturales en la conectividad del hábitat arrecifal. De acuerdo con la capacidad de dispersión del taxón de interés, puede haber entre 25 y 47 redes ecológicas individuales distribuidas a lo largo del ambiente marino australiano. La necesidad de primero evaluar la conectividad natural subyacente de un sistema de estudio previo a la implementación de nuevas AMP representa una prioridad de investigación clave para aumentar estratégicamente las redes de AMP. Nuestros resultados resaltan los beneficios de la integración de la conectividad multiespecie dentro de la planeación de la conservación para identificar las oportunidades que mejor incorporen la conectividad en el diseño de los sistemas de AMP y así incrementar su capacidad para soportar resultados sustentables de biodiversidad a largo plazo.

Effects of community composition on plant-pollinator interaction networks across a spatial gradient of oak-savanna habitats.

Distance between habitats may impact the composition and corresponding interactions between trophic levels. Mutualistic networks, such as those of plants and pollinators tend to have a core set of properties that often relate to the resilience of the community, or the ability of the community to retain function and structure after a disturbance. Furthermore, network structure is highly dependent on the number of specialists and generalists; however, it is unclear how different groups of species with various life-history strategies influence network structure. In this study, we evaluated how the composition of plants and pollinators within 16 oak-savanna sites changed across a latitudinal gradient. In addition, we evaluated how the abundance of different groups of plants and pollinators affected network metrics related to resilience. We found that the composition of plants and pollinators varied between ecoregions, while pollinator composition further varied with habitat characteristics. Network metrics displayed no spatial pattern but were related to the abundance of several pollinator groups. Above-ground nesting insects had a positive relationship with nestedness and a negative relationship with modularity, while predatory larvae had a negative relationship with modularity. Thus, above-ground nesting insects and predatory larvae could be expected to increase network resilience. This study emphasizes how spatial scales can influence species compositions, which in turn affects the structure of interactions in the community with implications for resilience.

Host ecology moderates the specialization of Neotropical bat-fly interaction networks.

The transmission of diseases through parasites is a key mechanism in the regulation of plant and animal populations in ecosystems. Therefore, it is necessary to investigate the relative effect of the variables that can shape the specificity of host-parasite interactions. Previous studies have found that specialization of antagonistic interactions between fly ectoparasites and bats changes according to forest type, host richness, and roosting ecology of bats. In this study, we tested these hypotheses using data from 48 bat communities. In general, our results support previous findings that bat-fly interactions are specialized, resulting in lower niche overlap among bat flies species. In addition, we found that the specificity of bat-fly interactions is lower in tropical mountain forests and is positively related with the richness of bat host species of each study site. Finally, there was a higher bat flies niche overlap in smaller bat-fly interaction networks recorded in bat roosts in caves. We conclude that the roosting ecology of bats could be a key factor to understand the mechanisms related to the horizontal transmission of ectoparasitic flies among bats.

Global patterns of interannual climate-fire relationships.

Climate shapes geographic and seasonal patterns in global fire activity by mediating vegetation composition, productivity, and desiccation in conjunction with land-use and anthropogenic factors. Yet, the degree to which climate variability affects interannual variability in burned area across Earth is less understood. Two decades of satellite-derived burned area records across forested and nonforested areas were used to examine global interannual climate-fire relationships at ecoregion scales. Measures of fuel aridity exhibited strong positive correlations with forested burned area, with weaker relationships in climatologically drier regions. By contrast, cumulative precipitation antecedent to the fire season exhibited positive correlations to nonforested burned area, with stronger relationships in climatologically drier regions. Climate variability explained roughly one-third of the interannual variability in burned area across global ecoregions. These results highlight the importance of climate variability in enabling fire activity globally, but also identify regions where anthropogenic and other influences may facilitate weaker relationships. Empirical fire modeling efforts can complement process-based global fire models to elucidate how fire activity is likely to change amidst complex interactions among climatic, vegetation, and human factors.

Climate drives shifts in grass reproductive phenology across the western USA.

The capacity of grass species to alter their reproductive timing across space and through time can indicate their ability to cope with environmental variability and help predict their future performance under climate change. We determined the long-term (1895-2013) relationship between flowering times of grass species and climate in space and time using herbarium records across ecoregions of the western USA. There was widespread concordance of C3 grasses accelerating flowering time and general delays for C4 grasses with increasing mean annual temperature, with the largest changes for annuals and individuals occurring in more northerly, wetter ecoregions. Flowering time was delayed for most grass species with increasing mean annual precipitation across space, while phenology-precipitation relationships through time were more mixed. Our results suggest that the phenology of most grass species has the capacity to respond to increases in temperature and altered precipitation expected with climate change, but weak relationships for some species in time suggest that climate tracking via migration or adaptation may be required. Divergence in phenological responses among grass functional types, species, and ecoregions suggests that climate change will have unequal effects across the western USA.

An Ecoregion-Based Approach to Protecting Half the Terrestrial Realm.

We assess progress toward the protection of 50% of the terrestrial biosphere to address the species-extinction crisis and conserve a global ecological heritage for future generations. Using a map of Earth's 846 terrestrial ecoregions, we show that 98 ecoregions (12%) exceed Half Protected; 313 ecoregions (37%) fall short of Half Protected but have sufficient unaltered habitat remaining to reach the target; and 207 ecoregions (24%) are in peril, where an average of only 4% of natural habitat remains. We propose a Global Deal for Nature-a companion to the Paris Climate Deal-to promote increased habitat protection and restoration, national- and ecoregion-scale conservation strategies, and the empowerment of indigenous peoples to protect their sovereign lands. The goal of such an accord would be to protect half the terrestrial realm by 2050 to halt the extinction crisis while sustaining human livelihoods.

Plant characterization of genetically modified maize hybrids MON-89Ø34-3 × MON-88Ø17-3, MON-89Ø34-3 × MON-ØØ6Ø3-6, and MON-ØØ6Ø3-6: alternatives for maize production in Mexico.

Environmental risk assessment (ERA) of genetically modified (GM) crops is a process to evaluate whether the biotechnology trait(s) in a GM crop may result in increased pest potential or harm to the environment. In this analysis, two GM insect-resistant (IR) herbicide-tolerant maize hybrids (MON-89Ø34-3 × MON-88Ø17-3 and MON-89Ø34-3 × MON-ØØ6Ø3-6) and one herbicide-tolerant GM hybrid (MON-ØØ6Ø3-6) were compared with conventional maize hybrids of similar genetic backgrounds. Two sets of studies, Experimental Phase and Pilot Phase, were conducted across five ecological regions (ecoregions) in Mexico during 2009-2013, and data were subject to meta-analysis. Results from the Experimental Phase studies, which were used for ERA, indicated that the three GM hybrids were not different from conventional maize for early stand count, days-to-silking, days-to-anthesis, root lodging, stalk lodging, or final stand count. Statistically significant differences were observed for seedling vigor, ear height, plant height, grain moisture, and grain yield, particularly in the IR hybrids; however, none of these phenotypic differences are expected to contribute to a biological or ecological change that would result in an increased pest potential or ecological risk when cultivating these GM hybrids. Overall, results from the Experimental Phase studies are consistent with those from other world regions, confirming that there are no additional risks compared to conventional maize. Results from Pilot Phase studies indicated that, compared to conventional maize hybrids, no differences were detected for the agronomic and phenotypic characteristics measured on the three GM maize hybrids, with the exception of grain moisture and grain yield in the IR hybrids. Since MON-89Ø34-3 × MON-88Ø17-3 and MON-89Ø34-3 × MON-ØØ6Ø3-6 confer resistance to target insect pests, they are an alternative for farmers in Mexico to protect the crop from insect damage. Additionally, the herbicide tolerance conferred by all three GM hybrids enables more cost-effective weed management.

From the Atlantic Forest to the borders of Amazonia: species richness, distribution, and host association of ectoparasitic flies (Diptera: Nycteribiidae and Streblidae) in northeastern Brazil.

Better knowledge of the geographical distribution of parasites and their hosts can contribute to clarifying aspects of host specificity, as well as on the interactions among hosts, parasites, and the environment in which both exist. Ectoparasitic flies of the Nycteribiidae and Streblidae families are highly specialized hematophagous parasites of bats, whose distributional patterns, species richness, and associations with hosts remain underexplored and poorly known in Brazil. Here, we used information available in the literature and unpublished data to verify if the occurrence of bat hosts in a given environment influences the occurrence and distribution of nycteribiid and streblid flies in different ecoregions in the northeastern Brazil. We evaluate species richness and similarity between ecoregions and tested correlations between species richness and the number of studies in each ecoregion and federative unit. We recorded 50 species and 15 genera of bat ectoparasitic flies on 36 species and 27 genera of bat hosts. The Atlantic Forest had the highest fly species richness (n = 31; 62%), followed by Caatinga (n = 27; 54%). We detected the formation of distinct groups, with low species overlap between ecoregions for both flies and bats. Fly species richness was correlated with host species richness and with the number of studies in each federative unit, but not with the number of studies by ecoregion. Due to the formation of distinct groups with low species overlap for both groups, host availability is likely to be one of the factors that most influence the occurrence of highly specific flies. We also discuss host specificity for some species, produced an updated list of species and distribution for both nycteribiid and streblid flies with information on interaction networks, and conclude by presenting recommendations for more effective inventories of bat ectoparasites in the future.

Evaluation of downscaled, gridded climate data for the conterminous United States.

Weather and climate affect many ecological processes, making spatially continuous yet fine-resolution weather data desirable for ecological research and predictions. Numerous downscaled weather data sets exist, but little attempt has been made to evaluate them systematically. Here we address this shortcoming by focusing on four major questions: (1) How accurate are downscaled, gridded climate data sets in terms of temperature and precipitation estimates? (2) Are there significant regional differences in accuracy among data sets? (3) How accurate are their mean values compared with extremes? (4) Does their accuracy depend on spatial resolution? We compared eight widely used downscaled data sets that provide gridded daily weather data for recent decades across the United States. We found considerable differences among data sets and between downscaled and weather station data. Temperature is represented more accurately than precipitation, and climate averages are more accurate than weather extremes. The data set exhibiting the best agreement with station data varies among ecoregions. Surprisingly, the accuracy of the data sets does not depend on spatial resolution. Although some inherent differences among data sets and weather station data are to be expected, our findings highlight how much different interpolation methods affect downscaled weather data, even for local comparisons with nearby weather stations located inside a grid cell. More broadly, our results highlight the need for careful consideration among different available data sets in terms of which variables they describe best, where they perform best, and their resolution, when selecting a downscaled weather data set for a given ecological application.

Factors related to building loss due to wildfires in the conterminous United States.

Wildfire is globally an important ecological disturbance affecting biochemical cycles and vegetation composition, but also puts people and their homes at risk. Suppressing wildfires has detrimental ecological effects and can promote larger and more intense wildfires when fuels accumulate, which increases the threat to buildings in the wildland-urban interface (WUI). Yet, when wildfires occur, typically only a small proportion of the buildings within the fire perimeter are lost, and the question is what determines which buildings burn. Our goal was to examine which factors are related to building loss when a wildfire occurs throughout the United States. We were particularly interested in the relative roles of vegetation, topography, and the spatial arrangement of buildings, and how their respective roles vary among ecoregions. We analyzed all fires that occurred within the conterminous United States from 2000 to 2010 and digitized which buildings were lost and which survived according to Google Earth historical imagery. We modeled the occurrence as well as the percentage of buildings lost within clusters using logistic and linear regression. Overall, variables related to topography and the spatial arrangement of buildings were more frequently present in the best 20 regression models than vegetation-related variables. In other words, specific locations in the landscape have a higher fire risk, and certain development patterns can exacerbate that risk. Fire policies and prevention efforts focused on vegetation management are important, but insufficient to solve current wildfire problems. Furthermore, the factors associated with building loss varied considerably among ecoregions suggesting that fire policy applied uniformly across the United States will not work equally well in all regions and that efforts to adapt communities to wildfires must be regionally tailored.

The biodiversity-dependent ecosystem service debt.

Habitat destruction is driving biodiversity loss in remaining ecosystems, and ecosystem functioning and services often directly depend on biodiversity. Thus, biodiversity loss is likely creating an ecosystem service debt: a gradual loss of biodiversity-dependent benefits that people obtain from remaining fragments of natural ecosystems. Here, we develop an approach for quantifying ecosystem service debts, and illustrate its use to estimate how one anthropogenic driver, habitat destruction, could indirectly diminish one ecosystem service, carbon storage, by creating an extinction debt. We estimate that c. 2-21 Pg C could be gradually emitted globally in remaining ecosystem fragments because of plant species loss caused by nearby habitat destruction. The wide range for this estimate reflects substantial uncertainties in how many plant species will be lost, how much species loss will impact ecosystem functioning and whether plant species loss will decrease soil carbon. Our exploratory analysis suggests that biodiversity-dependent ecosystem service debts can be globally substantial, even when locally small, if they occur diffusely across vast areas of remaining ecosystems. There is substantial value in conserving not only the quantity (area), but also the quality (biodiversity) of natural ecosystems for the sustainable provision of ecosystem services.

Characterizing differences in precipitation regimes of extreme wet and dry years: implications for climate change experiments.

Climate change is intensifying the hydrologic cycle and is expected to increase the frequency of extreme wet and dry years. Beyond precipitation amount, extreme wet and dry years may differ in other ways, such as the number of precipitation events, event size, and the time between events. We assessed 1614 long-term (100 year) precipitation records from around the world to identify key attributes of precipitation regimes, besides amount, that distinguish statistically extreme wet from extreme dry years. In general, in regions where mean annual precipitation (MAP) exceeded 1000 mm, precipitation amounts in extreme wet and dry years differed from average years by ~40% and 30%, respectively. The magnitude of these deviations increased to >60% for dry years and to >150% for wet years in arid regions (MAP<500 mm). Extreme wet years were primarily distinguished from average and extreme dry years by the presence of multiple extreme (large) daily precipitation events (events >99th percentile of all events); these occurred twice as often in extreme wet years compared to average years. In contrast, these large precipitation events were rare in extreme dry years. Less important for distinguishing extreme wet from dry years were mean event size and frequency, or the number of dry days between events. However, extreme dry years were distinguished from average years by an increase in the number of dry days between events. These precipitation regime attributes consistently differed between extreme wet and dry years across 12 major terrestrial ecoregions from around the world, from deserts to the tropics. Thus, we recommend that climate change experiments and model simulations incorporate these differences in key precipitation regime attributes, as well as amount into treatments. This will allow experiments to more realistically simulate extreme precipitation years and more accurately assess the ecological consequences.