Benefits and trade-offs of optimizing global land use for food, water, and carbon.

Current large-scale patterns of land use reflect history, local traditions, and production costs, much more so than they reflect biophysical potential or global supply and demand for food and freshwater, or-more recently-climate change mitigation. We quantified alternative land-use allocations that consider trade-offs for these demands by combining a dynamic vegetation model and an optimization algorithm to determine Pareto-optimal land-use allocations under changing climate conditions in 2090-2099 and alternatively in 2033-2042. These form the outer bounds of the option space for global land-use transformation. Results show a potential to increase all three indicators (+83% in crop production, +8% in available runoff, and +3% in carbon storage globally) compared to the current land-use configuration, with clear land-use priority areas: Tropical and boreal forests were preserved, crops were produced in temperate regions, and pastures were preferentially allocated in semiarid grasslands and savannas. Transformations toward optimal land-use patterns would imply extensive reconfigurations and changes in land management, but the required annual land-use changes were nevertheless of similar magnitude as those suggested by established land-use change scenarios. The optimization results clearly show that large benefits could be achieved when land use is reconsidered under a "global supply" perspective with a regional focus that differs across the world's regions in order to achieve the supply of key ecosystem services under the emerging global pressures.

Biodiversity and pollination benefits trade off against profit in an intensive farming system.

Agricultural expansion and intensification have boosted global food production but have come at the cost of environmental degradation and biodiversity loss. Biodiversity-friendly farming that boosts ecosystem services, such as pollination and natural pest control, is widely being advocated to maintain and improve agricultural productivity while safeguarding biodiversity. A vast body of evidence showing the agronomic benefits of enhanced ecosystem service delivery represent important incentives to adopt practices enhancing biodiversity. However, the costs of biodiversity-friendly management are rarely taken into account and may represent a major barrier impeding uptake by farmers. Whether and how biodiversity conservation, ecosystem service delivery, and farm profit can go hand in hand is unknown. Here, we quantify the ecological, agronomic, and net economic benefits of biodiversity-friendly farming in an intensive grassland-sunflower system in Southwest France. We found that reducing land-use intensity on agricultural grasslands drastically enhances flower availability and wild bee diversity, including rare species. Biodiversity-friendly management on grasslands furthermore resulted in an up to 17% higher revenue on neighboring sunflower fields through positive effects on pollination service delivery. However, the opportunity costs of reduced grassland forage yields consistently exceeded the economic benefits of enhanced sunflower pollination. Our results highlight that profitability is often a key constraint hampering adoption of biodiversity-based farming and uptake critically depends on society's willingness to pay for associated delivery of public goods such as biodiversity.

Investing in nature can improve equity and economic returns.

Sustainable development requires jointly achieving economic development to raise standards of living and environmental sustainability to secure these gains for the long run. Here, we develop a local-to-global, and global-to-local, earth-economy model that integrates the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP)-computable general equilibrium model of the economy with the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model of fine-scale, spatially explicit ecosystem services. The integrated model, GTAP-InVEST, jointly determines land use, environmental conditions, ecosystem services, market prices, supply and demand across economic sectors, trade across regions, and aggregate performance metrics like GDP. We use the integrated model to analyze the contribution of investing in nature for economic prosperity, accounting for the impact of four important ecosystem services (pollination, timber provision, marine fisheries, and carbon sequestration). We show that investments in nature result in large improvements relative to a business-as-usual path, accruing annual gains of $100 to $350 billion (2014 USD) with the largest percentage gains in the lowest-income countries. Our estimates include only a small subset of ecosystem services and could be far higher with inclusion of more ecosystem services, incorporation of ecological tipping points, and reduction in substitutability that limits economic adjustments to declines in natural capital. Our analysis highlights the need for improved environmental-economic modeling and the vital importance of integrating environmental information firmly into economic analysis and policy. The benefits of doing so are potentially very large, with the greatest percentage benefits accruing to inhabitants of the poorest countries.

Pollinator-assisted plant phenotyping, selection, and breeding for crop resilience to abiotic stresses.

Food security is threatened by climate change, with heat and drought being the main stresses affecting crop physiology and ecosystem services, such as plant-pollinator interactions. We hypothesize that tracking and ranking pollinators' preferences for flowers under environmental pressure could be used as a marker of plant quality for agricultural breeding to increase crop stress tolerance. Despite increasing relevance of flowers as the most stress sensitive organs, phenotyping platforms aim at identifying traits of resilience by assessing the plant physiological status through remote sensing-assisted vegetative indexes, but find strong bottlenecks in quantifying flower traits and in accurate genotype-to-phenotype prediction. However, as the transport of photoassimilates from leaves (sources) to flowers (sinks) is reduced in low-resilient plants, flowers are better indicators than leaves of plant well-being. Indeed, the chemical composition and amount of pollen and nectar that flowers produce, which ultimately serve as food resources for pollinators, change in response to environmental cues. Therefore, pollinators' preferences could be used as a measure of functional source-to-sink relationships for breeding decisions. To achieve this challenging goal, we propose to develop a pollinator-assisted phenotyping and selection platform for automated quantification of Genotype × Environment × Pollinator interactions through an insect geo-positioning system. Pollinator-assisted selection can be validated by metabolic, transcriptomic, and ionomic traits, and mapping of candidate genes, linking floral and leaf traits, pollinator preferences, plant resilience, and crop productivity. This radical new approach can change the current paradigm of plant phenotyping and find new paths for crop redomestication and breeding assisted by ecological decisions.

Interacting pest control and pollination services in coffee systems.

Biodiversity-mediated ecosystem services (ES) support human well-being, but their values are typically estimated individually. Although ES are part of complex socioecological systems, we know surprisingly little about how multiple ES interact ecologically and economically. Interactions could be positive (synergy), negative (trade-offs), or absent (additive effects), with strong implications for management and valuation. Here, we evaluate the interactions of two ES, pollination and pest control, via a factorial field experiment in 30 Costa Rican coffee farms. We found synergistic interactions between these two critical ES to crop production. The combined positive effects of birds and bees on fruit set, fruit weight, and fruit weight uniformity were greater than their individual effects. This represents experimental evidence at realistic farm scales of positive interactions among ES in agricultural systems. These synergies suggest that assessments of individual ES may underestimate the benefits biodiversity provides to agriculture and human well-being. Using our experimental results, we demonstrate that bird pest control and bee pollination services translate directly into monetary benefits to coffee farmers. Excluding both birds and bees resulted in an average yield reduction of 24.7% (equivalent to losing US$1,066.00/ha). These findings highlight that habitat enhancements to support native biodiversity can have multiple benefits for coffee, a valuable crop that supports rural livelihoods worldwide. Accounting for potential interactions among ES is essential to quantifying their combined ecological and economic value.

Animal soundscapes reveal key markers of Amazon forest degradation from fire and logging.

Safeguarding tropical forest biodiversity requires solutions for monitoring ecosystem structure over time. In the Amazon, logging and fire reduce forest carbon stocks and alter habitat, but the long-term consequences for wildlife remain unclear, especially for lesser-known taxa. Here, we combined multiday acoustic surveys, airborne lidar, and satellite time series covering logged and burned forests (n = 39) in the southern Brazilian Amazon to identify acoustic markers of forest degradation. Our findings contradict expectations from the Acoustic Niche Hypothesis that animal communities in more degraded habitats occupy fewer "acoustic niches" defined by time and frequency. Instead, we found that aboveground biomass was not a consistent proxy for acoustic biodiversity due to the divergent patterns of "acoustic space occupancy" between logged and burned forests. Ecosystem soundscapes highlighted a stark, and sustained reorganization in acoustic community assembly after multiple fires; animal communication networks were quieter, more homogenous, and less acoustically integrated in forests burned multiple times than in logged or once-burned forests. These findings demonstrate strong biodiversity cobenefits from protecting burned Amazon forests from recurrent fire. By contrast, soundscape changes after logging were subtle and more consistent with acoustic community recovery than reassembly. In both logged and burned forests, insects were the dominant acoustic markers of degradation, particularly during midday and nighttime hours, which are not typically sampled by traditional biodiversity field surveys. The acoustic fingerprints of degradation history were conserved across replicate recording locations, indicating that soundscapes may offer a robust, taxonomically inclusive solution for digitally tracking changes in acoustic community composition over time.

Financing conservation by valuing carbon services produced by wild animals.

Filling the global biodiversity financing gap will require significant investments from financial markets, which demand credible valuations of ecosystem services and natural capital. However, current valuation approaches discourage investment in conservation because their results cannot be verified using market-determined prices. Here, we bridge the gap between finance and conservation by valuing only wild animals' carbon services for which market prices exist. By projecting the future path of carbon service production using a spatially explicit demographic model, we place a credible value on the carbon capture services produced by African forest elephants. If elephants were protected, their services would be worth $20.8 billion ($10.3 to $29.7 billion) and $25.9 billion ($12.8 to $37.6 billion) for the next 10 and 30 y, respectively, and could finance antipoaching and conservation programs. Elephant population growth would generate a carbon sink of 109 MtC (64 to 153) across tropical Africa in the next 30 y. Avoided elephant extinction would also prevent the loss of 93 MtC (46 to 130), which is the contribution of the remaining populations. Uncertainties in our projections are controlled mainly by forest regeneration rates and poaching intensity, which indicate that conservation can actively reduce uncertainty for increased financial and biodiversity benefits. Our methodology can also place lower bounds on the social cost of nature degradation. Poaching would result in $2 to $7 billion of lost carbon services within the next 10 to 30 y, suggesting that the benefits of protecting elephants far outweigh the costs. Our methodology enables the integration of animal services into global financial markets with major implications for conservation, local socioeconomies, and conservation.

The global value of freshwater lakes.

Lakes face threats from human activities like unsustainable development, population growth and industrial technologies. These challenges impact the ecosystem services of lakes. Research has assessed the monetary value of services from freshwater biomes annually. This article reviews these values, estimating lakes' global ecosystem services to be within the region of USD 1.3-5.1 trillion annually. Their natural asset value is estimated at USD 87-340 trillion, comparable to the monetary value of global real estate, assuming a relatively high social discount rate to account for future increased standards of living. Considering environmental degradation, future generations may experience a lower living standard. Using a 0.1% discount rate, recognizing potential harm and aligning with indigenous values raises the lakes' value to USD 1300-5100 trillion, which is at least equal to the global monetary value of wealth created. This valuation is shared by all as a collective asset, unlike the skewed distribution of created wealth.

Functional redundancy of weed seed predation is reduced by intensified agriculture.

Intensified agriculture, a driver of biodiversity loss, can diminish ecosystem functions and their stability. Biodiversity can increase functional redundancy and is expected to stabilize ecosystem functions. Few studies, however, have explored how agricultural intensity affects functional redundancy and its link with ecosystem function stability. Here, within a continental-wide study, we assess how functional redundancy of seed predation is affected by agricultural intensity and landscape simplification. By combining carabid abundances with molecular gut content data, functional redundancy of seed predation was quantified for 65 weed genera across 60 fields in four European countries. Across weed genera, functional redundancy was reduced with high field management intensity and simplified crop rotations. Moreover, functional redundancy increased the spatial stability of weed seed predation at the field scale. We found that ecosystem functions are vulnerable to disturbances in intensively managed agroecosystems, providing empirical evidence of the importance of biodiversity for stable ecosystem functions across space.

A quantitative framework for identifying the role of individual species in Nature's Contributions to People.

It is widely acknowledged that biodiversity change is affecting human well-being by altering the supply of Nature's Contributions to People (NCP). Nevertheless, the role of individual species in this relationship remains obscure. In this article, we present a framework that combines the cascade model from ecosystem services research with network theory from community ecology. This allows us to quantitatively link NCP demanded by people to the networks of interacting species that underpin them. We show that this "network cascade" framework can reveal the number, identity and importance of the individual species that drive NCP and of the environmental conditions that support them. This information is highly valuable in demonstrating the importance of biodiversity in supporting human well-being and can help inform the management of biodiversity in social-ecological systems.

Distance functions of carabids in crop fields depend on functional traits, crop type and adjacent habitat: a synthesis.

Natural pest and weed regulation are essential for agricultural production, but the spatial distribution of natural enemies within crop fields and its drivers are mostly unknown. Using 28 datasets comprising 1204 study sites across eight Western and Central European countries, we performed a quantitative synthesis of carabid richness, activity densities and functional traits in relation to field edges (i.e. distance functions). We show that distance functions of carabids strongly depend on carabid functional traits, crop type and, to a lesser extent, adjacent non-crop habitats. Richness of both carnivores and granivores, and activity densities of small and granivorous species decreased towards field interiors, whereas the densities of large species increased. We found strong distance decays in maize and vegetables whereas richness and densities remained more stable in cereals, oilseed crops and legumes. We conclude that carabid assemblages in agricultural landscapes are driven by the complex interplay of crop types, adjacent non-crop habitats and further landscape parameters with great potential for targeted agroecological management. In particular, our synthesis indicates that a higher edge-interior ratio can counter the distance decay of carabid richness per field and thus likely benefits natural pest and weed regulation, hence contributing to agricultural sustainability.

Long-term push-pull cropping system shifts soil and maize-root microbiome diversity paving way to resilient farming system.

BACKGROUND: The soil biota consists of a complex assembly of microbial communities and other organisms that vary significantly across farming systems, impacting soil health and plant productivity. Despite its importance, there has been limited exploration of how different cropping systems influence soil and plant root microbiomes. In this study, we investigated soil physicochemical properties, along with soil and maize-root microbiomes, in an agroecological cereal-legume companion cropping system known as push-pull technology (PPT). This system has been used in agriculture for over two decades for insect-pest management, soil health improvement, and weed control in sub-Saharan Africa. We compared the results with those obtained from maize-monoculture (Mono) cropping system. RESULTS: The PPT cropping system changed the composition and diversity of soil and maize-root microbial communities, and led to notable improvements in soil physicochemical characteristics compared to that of the Mono cropping system. Distinct bacterial and fungal genera played a crucial role in influencing the variation in microbial diversity within these cropping systems. The relative abundance of fungal genera Trichoderma, Mortierella, and Bionectria and bacterial genera Streptomyces, RB41, and Nitrospira were more enriched in PPT. These microbial communities are associated with essential ecosystem services such as plant protection, decomposition, carbon utilization, bioinsecticides production, nitrogen fixation, nematode suppression, phytohormone production, and bioremediation. Conversely, pathogenic associated bacterial genus including Bryobacter were more enriched in Mono-root. Additionally, the Mono system exhibited a high relative abundance of fungal genera such as Gibberella, Neocosmospora, and Aspergillus, which are linked to plant diseases and food contamination. Significant differences were observed in the relative abundance of the inferred metabiome functional protein pathways including syringate degradation, L-methionine biosynthesis I, and inosine 5'-phosphate degradation. CONCLUSION: Push-pull cropping system positively influences soil and maize-root microbiomes and enhances soil physicochemical properties. This highlights its potential for agricultural and environmental sustainability. These findings contribute to our understanding of the diverse ecosystem services offered by this cropping system where it is practiced regarding the system's resilience and functional redundancy. Future research should focus on whether PPT affects the soil and maize-root microbial communities through the release of plant metabolites from the intercrop root exudates or through the alteration of the soil's nutritional status, which affects microbial enzymatic activities.

Mycorrhizal effects on crop yield and soil ecosystem functions in a long-term tillage and fertilization experiment.

It is well understood that agricultural management influences arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi, but there is controversy about whether farmers should manage for AM symbiosis. We assessed AM fungal communities colonizing wheat roots for three consecutive years in a long-term (> 14 yr) tillage and fertilization experiment. Relationships among mycorrhizas, crop performance, and soil ecosystem functions were quantified. Tillage, fertilizers and continuous monoculture all reduced AM fungal richness and shifted community composition toward dominance of a few ruderal taxa. Rhizophagus and Dominikia were depressed by tillage and/or fertilization, and their abundances as well as AM fungal richness correlated positively with soil aggregate stability and nutrient cycling functions across all or no-tilled samples. In the field, wheat yield was unrelated to AM fungal abundance and correlated negatively with AM fungal richness. In a complementary glasshouse study, wheat biomass was enhanced by soil inoculum from unfertilized, no-till plots while neutral to depressed growth was observed in wheat inoculated with soils from fertilized and conventionally tilled plots. This study demonstrates contrasting impacts of low-input and conventional agricultural practices on AM symbiosis and highlights the importance of considering both crop yield and soil ecosystem functions when managing mycorrhizas for more sustainable agroecosystems.

Quantifying co-extinctions and ecosystem service vulnerability in coastal ecosystems experiencing climate warming.

Climate change is negatively impacting ecosystems and their contributions to human well-being, known as ecosystem services. Previous research has mainly focused on the direct effects of climate change on species and ecosystem services, leaving a gap in understanding the indirect impacts resulting from changes in species interactions within complex ecosystems. This knowledge gap is significant because the loss of a species in a food web can lead to additional species losses or "co-extinctions," particularly when the species most impacted by climate change are also the species that play critical roles in food web persistence or provide ecosystem services. Here, we present a framework to investigate the relationships among species vulnerability to climate change, their roles within the food web, their contributions to ecosystem services, and the overall persistence of these systems and services in the face of climate-induced species losses. To do this, we assess the robustness of food webs and their associated ecosystem services to climate-driven species extinctions in eight empirical rocky intertidal food webs. Across food webs, we find that highly connected species are not the most vulnerable to climate change. However, we find species that directly provide ecosystem services are more vulnerable to climate change and more connected than species that do not directly provide services, which results in ecosystem service provision collapsing before food webs. Overall, we find that food webs are more robust to climate change than the ecosystem services they provide and show that combining species roles in food webs and services with their vulnerability to climate change offer predictions about the impacts of co-extinctions for future food web and ecosystem service persistence. However, these conclusions are limited by data availability and quality, underscoring the need for more comprehensive data collection on linking species roles in interaction networks and their vulnerabilities to climate change.

Tree contributions to climate change adaptation through reduced cattle heat stress and benefits to milk and beef production.

Cattle heat stress causes billions of dollars' worth of losses to meat and milk production globally, and is projected to become more severe in the future due to climate change. Tree establishment in pastoral livestock systems holds potential to reduce cattle heat stress and thus provide nature-based adaptation. We developed a general model for the impact of trees on cattle heat stress, which can project milk and meat production under future climate scenarios at varying spatial scales. The model incorporates the key microclimate mechanisms influenced by trees, including shade, air temperature, humidity, and wind speed. We conducted sensitivity analyses to demonstrate the relative influence of different mechanisms through which trees can impact cattle heat stress, and how tree impacts are influenced by climatic context globally. Trees hold the greatest potential to reduce cattle heat stress in higher latitudes and altitudes, with minor benefits in the lowland tropics. We projected the future contributions of current trees in mitigating climate change impacts on the dairy and beef herds of Aotearoa-New Zealand (A-NZ) in 2070-2080. Trees were simulated to contribute to A-NZ milk yields by over 491 million liters (lower CI = 112 million liters, upper CI = 850 million liters), and meat yields by over 8316 tonnes (lower CI = 2431 tonnes, upper CI = 13,668 tonnes) annually. The total economic contribution of existing trees in mitigating future cattle heat stress was valued at $US 244 million (lower CI = $US 58 million, upper CI = $US 419 million). Our findings demonstrate the importance of existing trees in pastoral landscapes and suggest that strategic tree establishment can be a valuable adaptation option for reducing cattle heat stress under climate change. Tree establishment in the next few years is critical to provide adaptation capacity and economic benefit in future decades.

Microclimate modulation: An overlooked mechanism influencing the impact of plant diversity on ecosystem functioning.

Changes in climate and biodiversity are widely recognized as primary global change drivers of ecosystem structure and functioning, also affecting ecosystem services provided to human populations. Increasing plant diversity not only enhances ecosystem functioning and stability but also mitigates climate change effects and buffers extreme weather conditions, yet the underlying mechanisms remain largely unclear. Recent studies have shown that plant diversity can mitigate climate change (e.g. reduce temperature fluctuations or drought through microclimatic effects) in different compartments of the focal ecosystem, which as such may contribute to the effect of plant diversity on ecosystem properties and functioning. However, these potential plant diversity-induced microclimate effects are not sufficiently understood. Here, we explored the consequences of climate modulation through microclimate modification by plant diversity for ecosystem functioning as a potential mechanism contributing to the widely documented biodiversity-ecosystem functioning (BEF) relationships, using a combination of theoretical and simulation approaches. We focused on a diverse set of response variables at various levels of integration ranging from ecosystem-level carbon exchange to soil enzyme activity, including population dynamics and the activity of specific organisms. Here, we demonstrated that a vegetation layer composed of many plant species has the potential to influence ecosystem functioning and stability through the modification of microclimatic conditions, thus mitigating the negative impacts of climate extremes on ecosystem functioning. Integrating microclimatic processes (e.g. temperature, humidity and light modulation) as a mechanism contributing to the BEF relationships is a promising avenue to improve our understanding of the effects of climate change on ecosystem functioning and to better predict future ecosystem structure, functioning and services. In addition, microclimate management and monitoring should be seen as a potential tool by practitioners to adapt ecosystems to climate change.

Impact of aridity rise and arid lands expansion on carbon-storing capacity, biodiversity loss, and ecosystem services.

Drylands, comprising semi-arid, arid, and hyperarid regions, cover approximately 41% of the Earth's land surface and have expanded considerably in recent decades. Even under more optimistic scenarios, such as limiting global temperature rise to 1.5°C by 2100, semi-arid lands may increase by up to 38%. This study provides an overview of the state-of-the-art regarding changing aridity in arid regions, with a specific focus on its effects on the accumulation and availability of carbon (C), nitrogen (N), and phosphorus (P) in plant-soil systems. Additionally, we summarized the impacts of rising aridity on biodiversity, service provisioning, and feedback effects on climate change across scales. The expansion of arid ecosystems is linked to a decline in C and nutrient stocks, plant community biomass and diversity, thereby diminishing the capacity for recovery and maintaining adequate water-use efficiency by plants and microbes. Prolonged drought led to a -3.3% reduction in soil organic carbon (SOC) content (based on 148 drought-manipulation studies), a -8.7% decrease in plant litter input, a -13.0% decline in absolute litter decomposition, and a -5.7% decrease in litter decomposition rate. Moreover, a substantial positive feedback loop with global warming exists, primarily due to increased albedo. The loss of critical ecosystem services, including food production capacity and water resources, poses a severe challenge to the inhabitants of these regions. Increased aridity reduces SOC, nutrient, and water content. Aridity expansion and intensification exacerbate socio-economic disparities between economically rich and least developed countries, with significant opportunities for improvement through substantial investments in infrastructure and technology. By 2100, half the world's landmass may become dryland, characterized by severe conditions marked by limited C, N, and P resources, water scarcity, and substantial loss of native species biodiversity. These conditions pose formidable challenges for maintaining essential services, impacting human well-being and raising complex global and regional socio-political challenges.

Multi-ecosystem services differently affected by over-canopy and understory nitrogen additions in a typical subtropical forest.

Obtaining a holistic understanding of the impacts of atmospheric nitrogen deposition on multiple ecosystem services of forest is essential for developing comprehensive and sustainable strategies, particularly in heavy N deposition regions such as subtropical China. However, such impacts remain incompletely understood, with most previous studies focus on individual ecosystem function or service via understory N addition experiments. To address this knowledge gap, we quantified the effects of over-canopy and understory N additions on multiple ecosystem services based on a 7-year large-scale field experiment in a typical subtropical forest. Our results showed continued over-canopy N addition with 50 kg ha-1 year-1 over a period of 4-7 years significantly increased plant nutrient retention, but did not affect the services of soil nutrient accumulation, water yield, C sequestration (in plants and soil), or oxygen release. There were trade-offs between the soil and plant on providing the services of nutrient accumulation/retention and C sequestration under over-canopy N addition. However, without uptake and retention of tree canopy, the trade-off between soil and plant were more weaken under the understory N addition with 50 kg ha-1 year-1 , and their relationships were even synergetic under the understory N addition with 25 kg ha-1 year-1 . The results suggest that understory N addition cannot accurately simulate the effects of atmospheric N deposition on multiple services, along with mutual relationships. Interestingly, the services of plant N, P retention, and C sequestration exhibited a synergetic increase under the over-canopy N addition but a decrease under the understory N addition. Our results also found tree layer plays a primary role in providing plant nutrient retention service and is sensitive to atmospheric N deposition. Further studies are needed to investigate the generalized effects of forest canopy processes on alleviating the threaten of global change factors in different forest ecosystems.

Reconciling the EU forest, biodiversity, and climate strategies.

Forests provide important ecosystem services (ESs), including climate change mitigation, local climate regulation, habitat for biodiversity, wood and non-wood products, energy, and recreation. Simultaneously, forests are increasingly affected by climate change and need to be adapted to future environmental conditions. Current legislation, including the European Union (EU) Biodiversity Strategy, EU Forest Strategy, and national laws, aims to protect forest landscapes, enhance ESs, adapt forests to climate change, and leverage forest products for climate change mitigation and the bioeconomy. However, reconciling all these competing demands poses a tremendous task for policymakers, forest managers, conservation agencies, and other stakeholders, especially given the uncertainty associated with future climate impacts. Here, we used process-based ecosystem modeling and robust multi-criteria optimization to develop forest management portfolios that provide multiple ESs across a wide range of climate scenarios. We included constraints to strictly protect 10% of Europe's land area and to provide stable harvest levels under every climate scenario. The optimization showed only limited options to improve ES provision within these constraints. Consequently, management portfolios suffered from low diversity, which contradicts the goal of multi-functionality and exposes regions to significant risk due to a lack of risk diversification. Additionally, certain regions, especially those in the north, would need to prioritize timber provision to compensate for reduced harvests elsewhere. This conflicts with EU LULUCF targets for increased forest carbon sinks in all member states and prevents an equal distribution of strictly protected areas, introducing a bias as to which forest ecosystems are more protected than others. Thus, coordinated strategies at the European level are imperative to address these challenges effectively. We suggest that the implementation of the EU Biodiversity Strategy, EU Forest Strategy, and targets for forest carbon sinks require complementary measures to alleviate the conflicting demands on forests.

River restoration can increase carbon storage but is not yet a suitable basis for carbon credits.

Increasing organic carbon storage in river corridors (channels and floodplains) is a potential cobenefit of some river restoration approaches, raising the possibility of using restoration to produce carbon credits and, therefore, increase restoration funding. However, the uncertainty already associated with existing carbon credits is compounded in river corridors, which are dynamic on daily, seasonal, annual, and longer timescales. We currently do not know how much river restoration approaches could increase carbon storage or how significant increased organic carbon storage from restoration would be compared with other forms of climate mitigation. We also do not know whether river corridor carbon credits could meet market needs for quickly established, stable, and simple credits. Therefore, we argue that biophysical and political economic uncertainties make river corridor restoration carbon credits currently unfeasible but that research on river restoration projects would demonstrate whether restoration carbon credits could be feasible in the future.