[Global evaluation of the mortality and hospitalization in the Italian contaminated sites included in the SENTIERI project]. / Stime globali della mortalità e ospedalizzazione nei siti contaminati italiani inclusi nel progetto SENTIERI.

Since 2006, epidemiological surveillance of populations living in Italian contaminated sites has been ongoing (SENTIERI Project). Updated global estimates of mortality (2013-2017) and hospitalization (2014-2018) are reported. The excess deaths (observed-expected) for the main groups of diseases were calculated for all the 46 sites together. Through a random-effect meta-analysis of the standardized mortality and hospitalization rates (SMR/SHR), the pooled SMR/SHR for all the sites and their groupings were estimated. In the 46 sites, 8,342 exceeding deaths (1,668/year) were estimated, 4,353 in males and 3,989 in females, resulting in an excess risk of 2% in both genders. The risk of hospitalization for all causes was in excess of 3%. These excesses are mainly attributable to malignant tumours. In subgroups of sites, exceeding SMRs were observed for all mesotheliomas and pleural mesotheliomas, lung and colorectal cancers in both genders. SHR for all causes were observed in excess in the first year of life (+8%), in the group 0-19 and 20-29 years (+3-5%); no excesses of mortality were observed in the group 0-29 years.

Type 1 diabetes in 2017: global estimates of incident and prevalent cases in children and adults.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Data on type 1 diabetes incidence and prevalence are limited, particularly for adults. This study aims to estimate global numbers of incident and prevalent cases of type 1 diabetes in 2017 for all age groups, by country and areas defined by income and region. METHODS: Incidence rates of type 1 diabetes in children (available from 94 countries) from the IDF Atlas were used and extrapolated to countries without data. Age-specific incidence rates in adults (only known across full age range for fewer than ten countries) were obtained by applying scaling ratios for each adult age group relative to the incidence rate in children. Age-specific incidence rates were applied to population estimates to obtain incident case numbers. Duration of diabetes was estimated from available data and adjusted using differences in childhood mortality rate between countries from United Nations demographic data. Prevalent case numbers were derived by modelling the relationship between prevalence, incidence and disease duration. Sensitivity analyses were performed to quantify the impact of alternative assumptions and model inputs. RESULTS: Global numbers of incident and prevalent cases of type 1 diabetes were estimated to be 234,710 and 9,004,610, respectively, in 2017. High-income countries, with 17% of the global population, accounted for 49% of global incident cases and 52% of prevalent cases. Asia, which has the largest proportion of the world's population (60%), had the largest number of incident (32%) and prevalent (31%) cases of type 1 diabetes. Globally, 6%, 35%, 43% and 16% of prevalent cases were in the age groups 0-14, 15-39, 40-64 and 65+ years, respectively. Based on sensitivity analyses, the estimates could deviate by ±15%. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Globally, type 1 diabetes represents about 2% of the estimated total cases of diabetes, ranging from less than 1% in certain Pacific countries to more than 15% in Northern European populations in 2017. This study provides information for the development of healthcare and policy approaches to manage type 1 diabetes. The estimates need further validation due to limitations and assumptions related to data availability and estimation methods.

Cancer statistics for the year 2020: An overview.

Our study briefly reviews the data sources and methods used in compiling the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) GLOBOCAN cancer statistics for the year 2020 and summarises the main results. National estimates were calculated based on the best available data on cancer incidence from population-based cancer registries (PBCR) and mortality from the World Health Organization mortality database. Cancer incidence and mortality rates for 2020 by sex and age groups were estimated for 38 cancer sites and 185 countries or territories worldwide. There were an estimated 19.3 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 19.0-19.6 million) new cases of cancer (18.1 million excluding non-melanoma skin cancer) and almost 10.0 million (95% UI: 9.7-10.2 million) deaths from cancer (9.9 million excluding non-melanoma skin cancer) worldwide in 2020. The most commonly diagnosed cancers worldwide were female breast cancer (2.26 million cases), lung (2.21) and prostate cancers (1.41); the most common causes of cancer death were lung (1.79 million deaths), liver (830000) and stomach cancers (769000).

Estimating the global cancer incidence and mortality in 2018: GLOBOCAN sources and methods.

Estimates of the worldwide incidence and mortality from 36 cancers and for all cancers combined for the year 2018 are now available in the GLOBOCAN 2018 database, compiled and disseminated by the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC). This paper reviews the sources and methods used in compiling the cancer statistics in 185 countries. The validity of the national estimates depends upon the representativeness of the source information, and to take into account possible sources of bias, uncertainty intervals are now provided for the estimated sex- and site-specific all-ages number of new cancer cases and cancer deaths. We briefly describe the key results globally and by world region. There were an estimated 18.1 million (95% UI: 17.5-18.7 million) new cases of cancer (17 million excluding non-melanoma skin cancer) and 9.6 million (95% UI: 9.3-9.8 million) deaths from cancer (9.5 million excluding non-melanoma skin cancer) worldwide in 2018.

Wide variation in estimates of global prevalence and burden of chronic hepatitis B and C infection cited in published literature.

To evaluate the extent of heterogeneity in global estimates of chronic hepatitis B (HBV) and C (HCV) cited in the published literature, we undertook a systematic review of the published literature. We identified articles from 2010 to 2014 that had cited global estimates for at least one of ten indicators [prevalence and numbers infected with HBV, HCV, HIV-HBV or HIV-HCV co-infection, and mortality (number of deaths annually) for HBV and HCV]. Overall, 488 articles were retrieved: 239 articles cited a HBV-related global estimate [prevalence (n = 12), number infected (n = 193) and number of annual deaths (n = 82)]; 280 articles had HCV-related global estimates [prevalence (n = 86), number infected (n = 203) and number of annual deaths (n = 31)]; 31 had estimates on both HBV and HCV; 54 had HIV-HBV co-infection estimates [prevalence (n = 42) and number co-infected (n = 12)]; and 68 had estimates for HIV-HCV co-infection [prevalence (n = 40) and number co-infected (n = 28)]. There was considerable heterogeneity in the estimates cited and also a lack of consistency in the terminology used. Although 40% of 488 articles cited WHO as the source of the estimate, many of these were from outdated or secondary sources. Our findings highlight the importance of clear and consistent communication from WHO and other global health agencies on current consensus estimates of hepatitis B and C burden and prevalence, the need for standardisation in their citation, and for regular updates.

Physical Limits of Solar Energy Conversion in the Earth System.

Solar energy provides by far the greatest potential for energy generation among all forms of renewable energy. Yet, just as for any form of energy conversion, it is subject to physical limits. Here we review the physical limits that determine how much energy can potentially be generated out of sunlight using a combination of thermodynamics and observed climatic variables. We first explain how the first and second law of thermodynamics constrain energy conversions and thereby the generation of renewable energy, and how this applies to the conversions of solar radiation within the Earth system. These limits are applied to the conversion of direct and diffuse solar radiation - which relates to concentrated solar power (CSP) and photovoltaic (PV) technologies as well as biomass production or any other photochemical conversion - as well as solar radiative heating, which generates atmospheric motion and thus relates to wind power technologies. When these conversion limits are applied to observed data sets of solar radiation at the land surface, it is estimated that direct concentrated solar power has a potential on land of up to 11.6 PW (1 PW=10(15) W), whereas photovoltaic power has a potential of up to 16.3 PW. Both biomass and wind power operate at much lower efficiencies, so their potentials of about 0.3 and 0.1 PW are much lower. These estimates are considerably lower than the incoming flux of solar radiation of 175 PW. When compared to a 2012 primary energy demand of 17 TW, the most direct uses of solar radiation, e.g., by CSP or PV, have thus by far the greatest potential to yield renewable energy requiring the least space to satisfy the human energy demand. Further conversions into solar-based fuels would be reduced by further losses which would lower these potentials. The substantially greater potential of solar-based renewable energy compared to other forms of renewable energy simply reflects much fewer and lower unavoidable conversion losses when solar radiation is directly converted into renewable energy.

Cancer incidence and mortality worldwide: sources, methods and major patterns in GLOBOCAN 2012.

Estimates of the worldwide incidence and mortality from 27 major cancers and for all cancers combined for 2012 are now available in the GLOBOCAN series of the International Agency for Research on Cancer. We review the sources and methods used in compiling the national cancer incidence and mortality estimates, and briefly describe the key results by cancer site and in 20 large "areas" of the world. Overall, there were 14.1 million new cases and 8.2 million deaths in 2012. The most commonly diagnosed cancers were lung (1.82 million), breast (1.67 million), and colorectal (1.36 million); the most common causes of cancer death were lung cancer (1.6 million deaths), liver cancer (745,000 deaths), and stomach cancer (723,000 deaths).

Global estimates of the burden of injury and illness at work in 2012.

This article reviews the present indicators, trends, and recent solutions and strategies to tackle major global and country problems in safety and health at work. The article is based on the Yant Award Lecture of the American Industrial Hygiene Association (AIHA) at its 2013 Congress. We reviewed employment figures, mortality rates, occupational burden of disease and injuries, reported accidents, surveys on self-reported occupational illnesses and injuries, attributable fractions, national economic cost estimates of work-related injuries and ill health, and the most recent information on the problems from published papers, documents, and electronic data sources of international and regional organizations, in particular the International Labor Organization (ILO), World Health Organization (WHO), and European Union (EU), institutions, agencies, and public websites. We identified and analyzed successful solutions, programs, and strategies to reduce the work-related negative outcomes at various levels. Work-related illnesses that have a long latency period and are linked to ageing are clearly on the increase, while the number of occupational injuries has gone down in industrialized countries thanks to both better prevention and structural changes. We have estimated that globally there are 2.3 million deaths annually for reasons attributed to work. The biggest component is linked to work-related diseases, 2.0 million, and 0.3 million linked to occupational injuries. However, the division of these two factors varies depending on the level of development. In industrialized countries the share of deaths caused by occupational injuries and work-related communicable diseases is very low while non-communicable diseases are the overwhelming causes in those countries. Economic costs of work-related injury and illness vary between 1.8 and 6.0% of GDP in country estimates, the average being 4% according to the ILO. Singapore's economic costs were estimated to be equivalent to 3.2% of GDP based on a preliminary study. If economic losses would take into account involuntary early retirement then costs may be considerably higher, for example, in Finland up to 15% of GDP, while this estimate covers various disorders where work and working conditions may be just one factor of many or where work may aggravate the disease, injury, or disorders, such as traffic injuries, mental disorders, alcoholism, and genetically induced problems. Workplace health promotion, services, and safety and health management, however, may have a major preventive impact on those as well. Leadership and management at all levels, and engagement of workers are key issues in changing the workplace culture. Vision Zero is a useful concept and philosophy in gradually eliminating any harm at work. Legal and enforcement measures that themselves support companies and organizations need to be supplemented with economic justification and convincing arguments to reduce corner-cutting in risk management, and to avoid short- and long-term disabilities, premature retirement, and corporate closures due to mismanagement and poor and unsustainable work life. We consider that a new paradigm is needed where good work is not just considered a daily activity. We need to foster stable conditions and circumstances and sustainable work life where the objective is to maintain your health and work ability beyond the legal retirement age. We need safe and healthy work, for life.

Mortality Attributable to Ambient Air Pollution: A Review of Global Estimates.

Since the publication of the first epidemiological study to establish the connection between long-term exposure to atmospheric pollution and effects on human health, major efforts have been dedicated to estimate the attributable mortality burden, especially in the context of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD). In this work, we review the estimates of excess mortality attributable to outdoor air pollution at the global scale, by comparing studies available in the literature. We find large differences between the estimates, which are related to the exposure response functions as well as the number of health outcomes included in the calculations, aspects where further improvements are necessary. Furthermore, we show that despite the considerable advancements in our understanding of health impacts of air pollution and the consequent improvement in the accuracy of the global estimates, their precision has not increased in the last decades. We offer recommendations for future measurements and research directions, which will help to improve our understanding and quantification of air pollution-health relationships.

International monitoring of capacity of treatment systems for alcohol and drug use disorders: Methodology of the Service Capacity Index for Substance Use Disorders.

OBJECTIVES: We aimed to develop a Service Capacity Index for Substance Use Disorders (SCI-SUD) that would reflect the capacity of national health systems to provide treatment for alcohol and drug use disorders, in terms of the proportion of available service elements in a given country from a theoretical maximum. METHODS: Data were collected through the WHO Global Survey on Progress with Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) Health Target 3.5, conducted between December 2019 and July 2020 to produce the SCI-SUD, based on 378 variables overall. RESULTS: The SCI-SUD was directly derived for 145 countries. We used multiple imputation to produce comparable SCI-SUD estimates for countries that did not submit data (40 countries) or had very high level of missingness (9 countries). The final SCI-SUD demonstrates considerable consistency and internal stability and is strongly associated with the macro-level economic, healthcare-related and epidemiologic (such as prevalence rates) variables. CONCLUSION: The presented methodology represents a step forward in monitoring the global situation in regard to the development of treatment systems for SU disorders, however, further work is warranted to improve the external validity of the measure (e.g., in-depth data generation in countries) and ensure its feasibility for regular reporting (e.g., reducing the number of variables).

Intimate partner violence against women during pregnancy: a systematic review and meta-analysis protocol for producing global and regional estimates.

BACKGROUND: Intimate partner violence is a devastating human rights violation and public health problem with high prevalence rates globally. Intimate partner violence during pregnancy is associated with devastating maternal, perinatal, and neonatal health effects. We present the protocol for a systematic review and meta-analysis to estimate the global lifetime prevalence of intimate partner violence during pregnancy. METHODS: This review aims to systematically synthesize the evidence on the global prevalence of violence against women by intimate partners during pregnancy using available population-based data. A comprehensive search of MEDLINE, EMBASE, Global Health, PsychInfo, and Web of Science databases will be conducted to identify all relevant articles. Manual searches will be conducted in Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) data reports and websites of national statistics and/or other offices. DHS data analysis will also be conducted. Based on inclusion and exclusion criteria, titles and abstracts will be screened for eligibility. Then, full-text articles will be assessed for eligibility. The following data will be extracted from included articles: study characteristics, population characteristics (e.g., ever-partnered, currently partnered, or any women, and age range), violence characteristics (e.g., type of violence, and perpetrator), estimate type (e.g., intimate partner violence during any pregnancy or during last pregnancy), subpopulation type (e.g., by age, marital status, urban/rural), prevalence estimate, and key quality indicators. A hierarchical Bayesian meta-regression framework will be used. This multilevel modelling approach will use survey-specific, country-specific, and region-specific random effects to pool observations. This modelling technique will be used to estimate global and regional prevalence. DISCUSSION: This systematic review and meta-analysis will provide estimates on the global and regional prevalence of intimate partner violence during pregnancy and contribute to monitoring progress towards Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) Target 5.2 on eliminating violence against women and to SDG Targets 3.1 and 3.2 on reducing maternal mortality and neonatal mortality. Given the significant health impacts of intimate partner violence during pregnancy, potential for intervention, and urgency to address violence and improve health, this review will provide critical evidence to governments, non-governmental organizations, and policymakers on the magnitude of violence during pregnancy. It will also inform effective policies and programs to prevent and respond to intimate partner violence during pregnancy. SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION: PROSPERO ID CRD42022332592.

Study protocol for UNICEF and WHO estimates of global, regional, and national low birthweight prevalence for 2000 to 2020.

Background Reducing low birthweight (LBW, weight at birth less than 2,500g) prevalence by at least 30% between 2012 and 2025 is a target endorsed by the World Health Assembly that can contribute to achieving Sustainable Development Goal 2 (Zero Hunger) by 2030. The 2019 LBW estimates indicated a global prevalence of 14.6% (20.5 million newborns) in 2015. We aim to develop updated LBW estimates at global, regional, and national levels for up to 202 countries for the period of 2000 to 2020. Methods Two types of sources for LBW data will be sought: national administrative data and population-based surveys. Administrative data will be searched for countries with a facility birth rate ≥80% and included when birthweight data account for ≥80% of UN estimated live births for that country and year. Surveys with birthweight data published since release of the 2019 edition of the LBW estimates will be adjusted using the standard methodology applied for the previous estimates. Risk of bias assessments will be undertaken. Covariates will be selected based on a conceptual framework of plausible associations with LBW, covariate time-series data quality, collinearity between covariates and correlations with LBW. National LBW prevalence will be estimated using a Bayesian multilevel-mixed regression model, then aggregated to derive regional and global estimates through population-weighted averages. Conclusion Whilst availability of LBW data has increased, especially with more facility births, gaps remain in the quantity and quality of data, particularly in low-and middle-income countries. Challenges include high percentages of missing data, lack of adherence to reporting standards, inaccurate measurement, and data heaping. Updated LBW estimates are important to highlight the global burden of LBW, track progress towards nutrition targets, and inform investments in programmes. Reliable, nationally representative data are key, alongside investments to improve the measurement and recording of an accurate birthweight for every baby.

Worldwide estimates of incidence of type 2 diabetes in children and adolescents in 2021.

AIMS: We aimed to conduct a systematic review of published studies on the incidence of type 2 diabetes in children and adolescents aged under 20 years and provide worldwide incidence estimates for 2021. METHODS: We used MEDLINE and EMBASE to identify studies reporting type 2 diabetes incidence in children and adolescents published between Jan 2000 and April 2021. We used a negative binomial regression model to develop a prediction equation to estimate incidence rates from country characteristics. We applied the resulting incidence predictions to country population data to estimate numbers of incident cases in children and adolescents by International Diabetes Federation (IDF) region and World Bank income classification group. RESULTS: We estimate that there are approximately 41,600 new cases of diagnosed type 2 diabetes among children and adolescents in 2021 worldwide. Around 30% and 40% of the worldwide total incident cases are in IDF Western Pacific region and in World Bank upper-middle-income countries, respectively. The three countries with the highest estimated number of incident cases are China, India, and United States of America. CONCLUSIONS: The number of newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes in children and adolescents is substantial. More reliable data are needed to track the incidence of type 2 diabetes in children and adolescents.

Childhood cancer: Estimating regional and global incidence.

BACKGROUND: Most of the world's population is not covered by cancer surveillance systems or vital registration, and worldwide/UN-regional cancer incidence is estimated using a variety of methods. Quantifying the cancer burden in children (<15 years) is more challenging than in adults; childhood cancer is rare and often presents with non-specific symptoms that mimic those of more prevalent infectious and nutritional conditions. METHODS: A Baseline Model (BM) was constructed comprising a set of quality assured sex- and age-specific cancer rates derived from the US Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) program, for diagnostic groups of the International Classification of Childhood Cancers (ICCC-3) 3rd edition, and information on a known risk factor for endemic Burkitt lymphoma and Kaposi's sarcoma. These rates were applied to global country-level population data for 2015 to estimate the global and regional incidence of childhood cancer. Results were compared to GLOBOCAN 2018, extrapolations from the International Incidence of Childhood Cancer (IICC-3) and estimates from the Global Childhood Cancer (GCC) model (based on IICC-3 data combined with information on health care systems and other parameters). RESULTS: The BM estimated 360,114 total childhood cancers occurring worldwide in 2015; 54% in Asia and 28% in Africa. BM estimated standardised rates ranged from ∼178 cases per million in Europe and North America, through to ∼218 cases per million in West and Middle Africa. Totals from GLOBOCAN and extrapolations from the IICC-3 study were lower (44.6% and 34.7% respectively), but the estimate from the GCC model was 10.2% higher. In all models, agreement was good in countries with very high human development index (HDI), but more variable in countries with medium and low HDIs; the discrepancies correlating with registration coverage across these settings. CONCLUSION: Disagreements between the BM estimates and other sources occur in areas where health systems are insufficiently equipped to provide adequate access to diagnosis, treatment, and supportive care. Incorporating aetiological evidence into the BM enabled the estimation of the additional burden of Burkitt lymphoma and Kaposi sarcoma; similar adjustments could be applied to other cancers, as and when information becomes available.

Handwashing with soap after potential faecal contact: global, regional and country estimates.

BACKGROUND: Limited data have been available on the global practice of handwashing with soap (HWWS). To better appreciate global HWWS frequency, which plays a role in disease transmission, our objectives were to: (i) quantify the presence of designated handwashing facilities; (ii) assess the association between handwashing facility presence and observed HWWS; and (iii) derive country, regional and global HWWS estimates after potential faecal contact. METHODS: First, using data from national surveys, we applied multilevel linear modelling to estimate national handwashing facility presence. Second, using multilevel Poisson modelling on datasets including both handwashing facility presence and observed HWWS after potential faecal contact, we estimated HWWS prevalence conditional on handwashing facility presence by region. For high-income countries, we used meta-analysis to pool handwashing prevalence of studies identified through a systematic review. Third, from the modelled handwashing facility presence and estimated HWWS prevalence conditional on the presence of a handwashing facility, we estimated handwashing practice at country, regional and global levels. RESULTS: First, approximately one in four persons did not have a designated handwashing facility in 2015, based on 115 data points for 77 countries. Second the prevalence ratio between HWWS when a designated facility was present compared with when it was absent was 1.99 (1.66, 2.39) P <0.001 for low- and middle-income countries, based on nine datasets. Third, we estimate that in 2015, 26.2% (23.1%, 29.6%) of potential faecal contacts were followed by HWWS. CONCLUSIONS: Many people lack a designated handwashing facility, but even among those with access, HWWS is poorly practised. People with access to designated handwashing facilities are about twice as likely to wash their hands with soap after potential faecal contact as people who lack a facility. Estimates are based on limited data.

Global Asbestos Disaster.

Introduction: Asbestos has been used for thousands of years but only at a large industrial scale for about 100⁻150 years. The first identified disease was asbestosis, a type of incurable pneumoconiosis caused by asbestos dust and fibres. The latest estimate of global number of asbestosis deaths from the Global Burden of Disease estimate 2016 is 3495. Asbestos-caused cancer was identified in the late 1930's but despite today's overwhelming evidence of the strong carcinogenicity of all asbestos types, including chrysotile, it is still widely used globally. Various estimates have been made over time including those of World Health Organization and International Labour Organization: 107,000⁻112,000 deaths. Present estimates are much higher. Objective: This article summarizes the special edition of this Journal related to asbestos and key aspects of the past and present of the asbestos problem globally. The objective is to collect and provide the latest evidence of the magnitude of asbestos-related diseases and to provide the present best data for revitalizing the International Labor Organization/World Health Organization Joint Program on Asbestos-related Diseases. Methods: Documentation on asbestos-related diseases, their recognition, reporting, compensation and prevention efforts were examined, in particular from the regulatory and prevention point of view. Estimated global numbers of incidence and mortality of asbestos-related diseases were examined. Results: Asbestos causes an estimated 255,000 deaths (243,223⁻260,029) annually according to latest knowledge, of which work-related exposures are responsible for 233,000 deaths (222,322⁻242,802). In the European Union, United States of America and in other high income economies (World Health Organization regional classification) the direct costs for sickness, early retirement and death, including production losses, have been estimated to be very high; in the Western European countries and European Union, and equivalent of 0.70% of the Gross Domestic Product or 114 × 108 United States Dollars. Intangible costs could be much higher. When applying the Value of Statistical Life of 4 million EUR per cancer death used by the European Commission, we arrived at 410 × 108 United States Dollars loss related to occupational cancer and 340 × 108 related to asbestos exposure at work, while the human suffering and loss of life is impossible to quantify. The numbers and costs are increasing practically in every country and region in the world. Asbestos has been banned in 55 countries but is used widely today; some 2,030,000 tons consumed annually according to the latest available consumption data. Every 20 tons of asbestos produced and consumed kills a person somewhere in the world. Buying 1 kg of asbestos powder, e.g., in Asia, costs 0.38 United States Dollars, and 20 tons would cost in such retail market 7600 United States Dollars. Conclusions: Present efforts to eliminate this man-made problem, in fact an epidemiological disaster, and preventing exposures leading to it are insufficient in most countries in the world. Applying programs and policies, such as those for the elimination of all kind of asbestos use-that is banning of new asbestos use and tight control and management of existing structures containing asbestos-need revision and resources. The International Labor Organization/World Health Organization Joint Program for the Elimination of Asbestos-Related Diseases needs to be revitalized. Exposure limits do not protect properly against cancer but for asbestos removal and equivalent exposure elimination work, we propose a limit value of 1000 fibres/m³.

Pointwise approximation by a Durrmeyer variant of Bernstein-Stancu operators.

In the present paper, we introduce a kind of Durrmeyer variant of Bernstein-Stancu operators, and we obtain the direct and converse results of approximation by the operators.

Production and use of estimates for monitoring progress in the health sector: the case of Bangladesh.

BACKGROUND:  In order to support the progress towards the post-2015 development agenda for the health sector, the importance of high-quality and timely estimates has become evident both globally and at the country level. OBJECTIVE AND METHODS: Based on desk review, key informant interviews and expert panel discussions, the paper critically reviews health estimates from both the local (i.e. nationally generated information by the government and other agencies) and the global sources (which are mostly modeled or interpolated estimates developed by international organizations based on different sources of information), and assesses the country capacity and monitoring strategies to meet the increasing data demand in the coming years. Primarily, this paper provides a situation analysis of Bangladesh in terms of production and use of health estimates for monitoring progress towards the post-2015 development goals for the health sector. RESULTS: The analysis reveals that Bangladesh is data rich, particularly from household surveys and health facility assessments. Practices of data utilization also exist, with wide acceptability of survey results for informing policy, programme review and course corrections. Despite high data availability from multiple sources, the country capacity for providing regular updates of major global health estimates/indicators remains low. Major challenges also include limited human resources, capacity to generate quality data and multiplicity of data sources, where discrepancy and lack of linkages among different data sources (local sources and between local and global estimates) present emerging challenges for interpretation of the resulting estimates. CONCLUSION: To fulfill the increased data requirement for the post-2015 era, Bangladesh needs to invest more in electronic data capture and routine health information systems. Streamlining of data sources, integration of parallel information systems into a common platform, and capacity building for data generation and analysis are recommended as priority actions for Bangladesh in the coming years. In addition to automation of routine health information systems, establishing an Indicator Reference Group for Bangladesh to analyze data; building country capacity in data quality assessment and triangulation; and feeding into global, inter-agency estimates for better reporting would address a number of mentioned challenges in the short- and long-run.

Producing HIV estimates: from global advocacy to country planning and impact measurement.

BACKGROUND: The development of global HIV estimates has been critical for understanding, advocating for and funding the HIV response. The process of generating HIV estimates has been cited as the gold standard for public health estimates. OBJECTIVE: This paper provides important lessons from an international scientific collaboration and provides a useful model for those producing public health estimates in other fields. DESIGN: Through the compilation and review of published journal articles, United Nations reports, other documents and personal experience we compiled historical information about the estimates and identified potential lessons for other public health estimation efforts. RESULTS: Through the development of core partnerships with country teams, implementers, demographers, mathematicians, epidemiologists and international organizations, UNAIDS has led a process to develop the capacity of country teams to produce internationally comparable HIV estimates. The guidance provided by these experts has led to refinements in the estimated numbers of people living with HIV, new HIV infections and AIDS-related deaths over the past 20 years. A number of important updates to the methods since 1997 resulted in fluctuations in the estimated levels, trends and impact of HIV. The largest correction occurred between the 2005 and 2007 rounds with the additions of household survey data into the models. In 2001 the UNAIDS models at that time estimated there were 40 million people living with HIV. In 2016, improved models estimate there were 30 million (27.6-32.7 million) people living with HIV in 2001. CONCLUSIONS: Country ownership of the estimation tools has allowed for additional uses of the results than had the results been produced by researchers or a team in Geneva. Guidance from a reference group and input from country teams have led to critical improvements in the models over time. Those changes have improved countries' and stakeholders' understanding of the HIV epidemic.

Schooling and wage income losses due to early-childhood growth faltering in developing countries: national, regional, and global estimates.

BACKGROUND: The growth of >300 million children <5 y old was mildly, moderately, or severely stunted worldwide in 2010. However, national estimates of the human capital and financial losses due to growth faltering in early childhood are not available. OBJECTIVE: We quantified the economic cost of growth faltering in developing countries. DESIGN: We combined the most recent country-level estimates of linear growth delays from the Nutrition Impact Model Study with estimates of returns to education in developing countries to estimate the impact of early-life growth faltering on educational attainment and future incomes. Primary outcomes were total years of educational attainment lost as well as the net present value of future wage earnings lost per child and birth cohort due to growth faltering in 137 developing countries. Bootstrapped standard errors were computed to account for uncertainty in modeling inputs. RESULTS: Our estimates suggest that early-life growth faltering in developing countries caused a total loss of 69.4 million y of educational attainment (95% CI: 41.7 million, 92.6 million y) per birth cohort. Educational attainment losses were largest in South Asia (27.6 million y; 95% CI: 20.0 million, 35.8 million y) as well as in Eastern (10.3 million y; 95% CI: 7.2 million, 12.9 million y) and Western sub-Saharan Africa (8.8 million y; 95% CI: 6.4 million, 11.5 million y). Globally, growth faltering in developing countries caused a total economic cost of $176.8 billion (95% CI: $100.9 billion, $262.6 billion)/birth cohort at nominal exchange rates, and $616.5 billion (95% CI: $365.3 billion, $898.9 billion) at purchasing power parity-adjusted exchange rates. At the regional level, economic costs were largest in South Asia ($46.6 billion; 95% CI: $33.3 billion, $61.1 billion), followed by Latin America ($44.7 billion; 95% CI: $19.2 billion, $74.6 billion) and sub-Saharan Africa ($34.2 billion; 95% CI: $24.4 billion, $45.3 billion). CONCLUSIONS: Our results indicate that the annual cost of early-childhood growth faltering is substantial. Further investment in scaling up effective interventions in this area is urgently needed and likely to yield long run benefits of $3 for every $1 invested.