Constraints on regional projections of mean and extreme precipitation under warming.

The projected changes in the hydrological cycle under global warming remain highly uncertain across current climate models. Here, we demonstrate that the observational past warming trend can be utilized to effectively co1nstrain future projections in mean and extreme precipitation on both global and regional scales. The physical basis for such constraints relies on the relatively constant climate sensitivity in individual models and the reasonable consistency of regional hydrological sensitivity among the models, which is dominated and regulated by the increases in atmospheric moisture. For the high-emission scenario, on the global average, the projected changes in mean precipitation are lowered from 6.9 to 5.2% and those in extreme precipitation from 24.5 to 18.1%, with the inter-model variances reduced by 31.0 and 22.7%, respectively. Moreover, the constraint can be applied to regions in middle-to-high latitudes, particularly over land. These constraints result in spatially resolved corrections that deviate substantially and inhomogeneously from the global mean corrections. This study provides regionally constrained hydrological responses over the globe, with direct implications for climate adaptation in specific areas.

Anomalous wet summers and rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations increase the CO2 sink in a poorly drained forest on permafrost.

At the northern high latitudes, rapid warming, associated changes in the hydrological cycle, and rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations, [CO2], are observed at present. Under rapid environmental changes, it is important to understand the current and future trajectories of the CO2 budget in high-latitude ecosystems. In this study, we present the importance of anomalous wet conditions and rising [CO2] on the long-term CO2 budget based on two decades (2003-2022) of quasicontinuous measurements of CO2 flux at a poorly drained black spruce forest on permafrost peat in interior Alaska. The long-term CO2 budget for the black spruce forest was a small sink of -53 ± 63 g C m-2 y-1. The CO2 sink increased from 49 g C m-2 y-1 for the first decade to 58 g C m-2 y-1 for the second decade. The increased CO2 sink was attributed to an 11.3% increase in gross primary productivity (GPP) among which 9% increase in GPP was explained by a recent increase in precipitation. Furthermore, a 3% increase in GPP in response to a 37-ppm increase in [CO2] was estimated from the data-model fusion. Our study shows that understanding the coupling between hydrological and carbon cycles and the CO2 fertilization effect is important for understanding the current and future carbon budgets of high-latitude ecosystems in permafrost regions.

Spatial patterns of climate change across the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum.

The Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM; 56 Ma) is one of our best geological analogs for understanding climate dynamics in a "greenhouse" world. However, proxy data representing the event are only available from select marine and terrestrial sedimentary sequences that are unevenly distributed across Earth's surface, limiting our view of the spatial patterns of climate change. Here, we use paleoclimate data assimilation (DA) to combine climate model and proxy information and create a spatially complete reconstruction of the PETM and the climate state that precedes it ("PETM-DA"). Our data-constrained results support strong polar amplification, which in the absence of an extensive cryosphere, is related to temperature feedbacks and loss of seasonal snow on land. The response of the hydrological cycle to PETM warming consists of a narrowing of the Intertropical Convergence Zone, off-equatorial drying, and an intensification of seasonal monsoons and winter storm tracks. Many of these features are also seen in simulations of future climate change under increasing anthropogenic emissions. Since the PETM-DA yields a spatially complete estimate of surface air temperature, it yields a rigorous estimate of global mean temperature change (5.6 ∘C; 5.4 ∘C to 5.9 ∘C, 95% CI) that can be used to calculate equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS). We find that PETM ECS was 6.5 ∘C (5.7 ∘C to 7.4 ∘C, 95% CI), which is much higher than the present-day range. This supports the view that climate sensitivity increases substantially when greenhouse gas concentrations are high.

Inconsistent Regulatory Mapping Quietly Threatens Rivers and Streams.

Even the most stringent environmental law cannot protect a river if its tributaries remain exposed to pollution and other threats upstream. Excluding a subset of watercourses from legal protection therefore threatens to alter freshwater ecosystems across entire river networks and the services they provide, such as drinking water and flood regulation. Considerable attention has been devoted to defining the scope of environmental laws protecting watercourses. Yet how these definitions are implemented through regulatory mapping, the cartography of waterbodies that legally qualify as watercourses and are thus protected, has not been examined outside of the United States. Here, we demonstrate the consequences of regulatory mapping on the extent of river networks that are protected, using France as a case study. By assembling the first map of France's watercourses protected under the Water Law, we estimate that a quarter of previously mapped hydrographic segments were excluded from protection and found stark geographical variations in the extent of protected ecosystems. Headwater and nonperennial segments are disproportionately excluded by 28% compared to their prevalence (67%) in the overall hydrographic network, with potentially far-reaching implications for biodiversity and people. We expect regulatory frameworks in most countries to be equally susceptible to local interpretation of legal definitions.

Response of hydrology and nutrient losses to different extreme rainfall conditions in a coastal watershed influenced by orchards.

Global warming is altering the frequency of extreme rainfall events and introducing uncertainties for non-point source pollution (NPSP). This research centers on orchard-influenced planting areas (OIPA) in the Wulong River Watershed of Shandong Province, China, which are known for their heightened nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) pollution. Leveraging meteorological data from both historical (1989-2018) and projected future periods (2041-2100), this research identified five extreme rainfall indices (ERI): R10 (moderate rain), R20 (heavy rain), R50 (rainstorm), R95p (Daily rainfall between the 95th and 99th percentile of the rainfall), and R99p (>99th percentile). Utilizing an advanced watershed hydrological model, SWAT-CO2, this study carried out a comparison between ERI and average conditions and evaluated the effects of ERI on the hydrology and nutrient losses in this coastal watershed. The findings revealed that the growth multiples of precipitation in the OIPA for five ERI varied between 16 and 59 times for the historical period and 14 to 65 times for future climate scenarios compared to the average conditions. The most pronounced increases in surface runoff and total phosphorus (TP) loss were observed with R50, R95p, and R99p, showing growth multiples as high as 352 and 330 times, and total nitrogen (TN) growth multiples varied between 4.6 and 30.3 times. The contribution rates of R50 and R99p for surface runoff and TP loss in the OIPA during all periods exceeded 55%, however, TN exhibited the opposite trend, primarily due to the dominated NO3-N leaching in the sandy soil. This research revealed how the OIPA reacts to different ERI and pinpointed essential elements influencing water and nutrient losses.

Time-evolving sea-surface warming patterns modulate the climate change response of subtropical precipitation over land.

Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions affect precipitation worldwide. The response is commonly described by two timescales linked to different processes: a rapid adjustment to radiative forcing, followed by a slower response to surface warming. However, additional timescales exist in the surface-warming response, tied to the time evolution of the sea-surface-temperature (SST) response. Here, we show that in climate model projections, the rapid adjustment and surface mean warming are insufficient to explain the time evolution of the hydro-climate response in three key Mediterranean-like areas-namely, California, Chile, and the Mediterranean. The time evolution of those responses critically depends on distinct shifts in the regional atmospheric circulation associated with the existence of distinct fast and slow SST warming patterns. As a result, Mediterranean and Chilean drying are in quasiequilibrium with GHG concentrations, meaning that the drying will not continue after GHG concentrations are stabilized, whereas California wetting will largely emerge only after GHG concentrations are stabilized. The rapid adjustment contributes to a reduction in precipitation, but has a limited impact on the balance between precipitation and evaporation. In these Mediterranean-like regions, future hydro-climate-related impacts will be substantially modulated by the time evolution of the pattern of SST warming that is realized in the real world.

Divergent Representation of Precipitation Recycling in the Amazon and the Congo in CMIP6 Models.

Moisture evaporated from the land contributing to precipitation in a given area is known as precipitation recycling and needs to be accurately represented in climate models. The Amazon and Congo basins are reported to have the highest precipitation recycling rates globally, but model representation has not yet been assessed over these regions. We evaluated recycling over the Amazon and Congo in 45 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 models. Regional annual means from models and reanalyzes agreed well over both basins. Models captured seasonal variation in recycling over the Congo but there was a large-scale underestimation of recycling during the Amazon dry-to-wet transition season relative to ERA5, caused by models underestimating Amazon evapotranspiration and overestimating incoming wind speed and associated water vapor imports. Both regions show robust declines in precipitation recycling over the next century under future climate-change scenarios. Our results suggest models may underestimate impacts of deforestation on regional precipitation in the Amazon.

Hot Spots of Glacier Mass Balance Variability in Central Asia.

The Tien Shan and Pamir mountains host over 28,000 glaciers providing essential water resources for increasing water demand in Central Asia. A disequilibrium between glaciers and climate affects meltwater release to Central Asian rivers, challenging the region's water availability. Previous research has neglected temporal variability. We present glacier mass balance estimates based on transient snowline and geodetic surveys with unprecedented spatiotemporal resolution from 1999/00 to 2017/18. Our results reveal spatiotemporal heterogeneity characterized by two mass balance clusters: (a) positive, low variability, and (b) negative, high variability. This translates into variable glacial meltwater release (≈1-16%) of annual river runoff for two watersheds. Our study reveals more complex climate forcing-runoff responses and importance of glacial meltwater variability for the region than suggested previously.

Mean precipitation change from a deepening troposphere.

Global climate models robustly predict that global mean precipitation should increase at roughly 2-3% [Formula: see text], but the origin of these values is not well understood. Here we develop a simple theory to help explain these values. This theory combines the well-known radiative constraint on precipitation, which says that condensation heating from precipitation is balanced by the net radiative cooling of the free troposphere, with an invariance of radiative cooling profiles when expressed in temperature coordinates. These two constraints yield a picture in which mean precipitation is controlled primarily by the depth of the troposphere, when measured in temperature coordinates. We develop this theory in idealized simulations of radiative-convective equilibrium and also demonstrate its applicability to global climate models.

Anomaly detection in watershed hydrological behavior due to land use changes in Eskandari Watershed, Iran.

In this study, SWAT hydrological model was used to differentiate the effects of drought and changes in land use on hydrological balance of the system in Eskandari Watershed area. To this end, The SWAT model was implemented separately using other user maps to investigate the impact of land use changes on the hydrological cycle of the watershed. Additionally, Van Loon model was used to investigate the effects of drought and water scarcity on discharge. The results showed that the watershed area could meet its environmental needs due to an 11% decrease in rainfall and droughts in 2008 and 2009. Additionally, the average monthly simulated flows were 2.4 m3/s and 2.9 m3/s in the natural and turbulent periods, respectively, indicating a decrease of nearly 18%, which is related to the 11% decrease in rainfall in this Watershed. Furthermore, the average observational flow in the turbulent period was 4 mm, which showed a growth of nearly 13% in comparison to the observational flow in the turbulent period. Decreased rainfall and increased discharge in this period indicated the effect of land use change and human activities on the catchment.

The pervasive and multifaceted influence of biocrusts on water in the world's drylands.

The capture and use of water are critically important in drylands, which collectively constitute Earth's largest biome. Drylands will likely experience lower and more unreliable rainfall as climatic conditions change over the next century. Dryland soils support a rich community of microphytic organisms (biocrusts), which are critically important because they regulate the delivery and retention of water. Yet despite their hydrological significance, a global synthesis of their effects on hydrology is lacking. We synthesized 2,997 observations from 109 publications to explore how biocrusts affected five hydrological processes (times to ponding and runoff, early [sorptivity] and final [infiltration] stages of water flow into soil, and the rate or volume of runoff) and two hydrological outcomes (moisture storage, sediment production). We found that increasing biocrust cover reduced the time for water to pond on the surface (-40%) and commence runoff (-33%), and reduced infiltration (-34%) and sediment production (-68%). Greater biocrust cover had no significant effect on sorptivity or runoff rate/amount, but increased moisture storage (+14%). Infiltration declined most (-56%) at fine scales, and moisture storage was greatest (+36%) at large scales. Effects of biocrust type (cyanobacteria, lichen, moss, mixed), soil texture (sand, loam, clay), and climatic zone (arid, semiarid, dry subhumid) were nuanced. Our synthesis provides novel insights into the magnitude, processes, and contexts of biocrust effects in drylands. This information is critical to improve our capacity to manage dwindling dryland water supplies as Earth becomes hotter and drier.

Wetter subtropics in a warmer world: Contrasting past and future hydrological cycles.

During the warm Miocene and Pliocene Epochs, vast subtropical regions had enough precipitation to support rich vegetation and fauna. Only with global cooling and the onset of glacial cycles some 3 Mya, toward the end of the Pliocene, did the broad patterns of arid and semiarid subtropical regions become fully developed. However, current projections of future global warming caused by CO2 rise generally suggest the intensification of dry conditions over these subtropical regions, rather than the return to a wetter state. What makes future projections different from these past warm climates? Here, we investigate this question by comparing a typical quadrupling-of-CO2 experiment with a simulation driven by sea-surface temperatures closely resembling available reconstructions for the early Pliocene. Based on these two experiments and a suite of other perturbed climate simulations, we argue that this puzzle is explained by weaker atmospheric circulation in response to the different ocean surface temperature patterns of the Pliocene, specifically reduced meridional and zonal temperature gradients. Thus, our results highlight that accurately predicting the response of the hydrological cycle to global warming requires predicting not only how global mean temperature responds to elevated CO2 forcing (climate sensitivity) but also accurately quantifying how meridional sea-surface temperature patterns will change (structural climate sensitivity).

Arctic moistening provides negative feedbacks to riparian plants.

Arctic moistening will affect the circumpolar forested riparian ecosystems. Upward trends observed for precipitation in high latitudes illustrate that the moistening may be underway to influence the woody biomass production near the inland waters, lakes and streams with effects on carbon pools and fluxes. Although the flooding and waterlogging tolerance of seedlings has been investigated, our understanding of responses in mature trees is still limited. Here we employ tree-ring δ13 C and width data from a subarctic riparian setting in Lapland, where artificially high lake level (HLL) has already altered the ecophysiological and growth responses of riparian Pinus sylvestris trees to external drivers under conditions simulating moister environment. Prior to the HLL event, the carbon assimilation rate was primarily limited by irradiance as reflected in the δ13 C data and the radial growth of south-facing riparian trees remained increased in comparison to shaded upland trees. By contrast, the riparian trees were not similarly benefited during the HLL period when reduced assimilation depleted the riparian in comparison to upland δ13 C despite of increased irradiance. As a result, the radial growth of riparian trees was markedly reduced over the HLL event while the upland trees benefited from increased irradiance and summer time warming. Although the production of biomass at high latitudes is commonly considered temperature-limited, our results highlight the increasing role of Arctic moistening to limit the growth when increased precipitation (cloudiness) reduces the incoming solar radiation in general and when the riparian habitat becomes increasingly waterlogged in particular. The effects of high-latitude warming to induce higher biomass productivity may be restricted by negative feedbacks.

Greenhouse- and orbital-forced climate extremes during the early Eocene.

The Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) was a significant global warming event in Earth's deep past (56 Mya). The warming across the PETM boundary was driven by a rapid rise in greenhouse gases. The event also coincided with a time of maximum insolation in Northern Hemisphere summer. There is increased evidence that the mean warming was accompanied by enhanced seasonality and/or extremes in precipitation (and flooding) and drought. A high horizontal resolution (50 km) global climate model is used to explore changes in the seasonal cycle of surface temperature, precipitation, evaporation minus precipitation and river run-off for regions where proxy data are available. Comparison for the regions indicates the model accurately simulates the observed changes in these climatic characteristics with North American interior warming and drying, and warming and increased river run-off at other regions. The addition of maximum insolation in Northern Hemisphere summer leads to a drier North America, but wetter conditions at most other locations. Long-range transport of atmospheric moisture plays a critical role in explaining regional changes in the water cycle. Such high-frequency variations in precipitation might also help explain discrepancies or misinterpretation of some climate proxies from the same locations, especially where sampling is coarse, i.e. at or greater than the frequency of precession.This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Hyperthermals: rapid and extreme global warming in our geological past'.

Throughfall, stemflow, and interception characteristics of coniferous forest ecosystems in the western black sea region of Turkey (Daday example).

This study aims to identify precipitation, throughfall, stemflow, precipitation, and interception processes in pure black pine, pure Scots pine, and mixed black pine-Scots pine forest ecosystems and present the precipitation partitioning according to different stand types. Throughfall and stemflow measurements were performed using five standard precipitation gauges in a pilot area established to represent pure black pine, pure Scots pine, and mixed black pine-Scots pine stands in the Bezirgan Basin. The total precipitation was measured in an open field close to the study area. Throughfall values were calculated as the percentage of precipitation measured in an open field. According to the results of the study, the throughfall values were 69.8% in black pine, 73.9% in Scots pine, and 77.7% in the mixed black pine-Scots pine stands; the stemflow values were 2.6% in black pine, 5.9% in Scots pine, and 3.1% in the mixed black pine-Scots pine stands; the amounts of precipitation reaching the forest floor were 72.3% in black pine, 79.8% in Scots pine, and 80.7% in the mixed black pine-Scots pine stands; and the interception values were found to be 27.7% in black pine, 20.2% in Scots pine, and 19.2% in the mixed black pine-Scots pine stands.

Temporal and spatial distribution of young Brachyplatystoma spp. (Siluriformes: Pimelodidae) along the rapids stretch of the Madeira River (Brazil) before the construction of two hydroelectric dams.

Monthly (April 2009 to May 2010) bottom-trawl sampling for Brachyplatystoma species along the rapids stretch of the Madeira River in Brazil revealed that Brachyplatystoma rousseauxii larvae and juveniles were present in low abundances in all areas and during all hydrological periods. The presence of larvae and juveniles throughout the hydrological cycle suggests asynchronous spawning in the headwaters of the Madeira River.

Reconstructing the δ(18) O of atmospheric water vapour via the CAM epiphyte Tillandsia usneoides: seasonal controls on δ(18) O in the field and large-scale reconstruction of δ(18) Oa.

Using both oxygen isotope ratios of leaf water (δ(18) OL ) and cellulose (δ(18) OC ) of Tillandsia usneoides in situ, this paper examined how short- and long-term responses to environmental variation and model parameterization affected the reconstruction of the atmospheric water vapour (δ(18) Oa ). During sample-intensive field campaigns, predictions of δ(18) OL matched observations well using a non-steady-state model, but the model required data-rich parameterization. Predictions from the more easily parameterized maximum enrichment model (δ(18) OL-M ) matched observed δ(18) OL and observed δ(18) Oa when leaf water turnover was less than 3.5 d. Using the δ(18) OL-M model and weekly samples of δ(18) OL across two growing seasons in Florida, USA, reconstructed δ(18) Oa was -12.6 ± 0.3‰. This is compared with δ(18) Oa of -12.4 ± 0.2‰ resolved from the growing-season-weighted δ(18) OC . Both of these values were similar to δ(18) Oa in equilibrium with precipitation, -12.9‰. δ(18) Oa was also reconstructed through a large-scale transect with δ(18) OL and the growing-season-integrated δ(18) OC across the southeastern United States. There was considerable large-scale variation, but there was regional, weather-induced coherence in δ(18) Oa when using δ(18) OL . The reconstruction of δ(18) Oa with δ(18) OC generally supported the assumption of δ(18) Oa being in equilibrium with precipitation δ(18) O (δ(18) Oppt ), but the pool of δ(18) Oppt with which δ(18) Oa was in equilibrium - growing season versus annual δ(18) Oppt - changed with latitude.

Metabarcoding reveals ecologically distinct fungal assemblages in river and groundwater along an Austrian alpine to lowland gradient.

Biodiversity, the source of origin, and ecological roles of fungi in groundwater are to this day a largely neglected field in fungal and freshwater ecology. We used DNA-based Illumina high-throughput sequence analysis of both fungal gene markers 5.8S and internal transcribed spacers region 2 (ITS2), improving taxonomic classification. This study focused on the groundwater and river mycobiome along an altitudinal and longitudinal transect of a pre-alpine valley in Austria in two seasons. Using Bayesian network modeling approaches, we identified patterns in fungal community assemblages that were mostly shaped by differences in landscape (climatic, topological, and geological) and environmental conditions. While river fungi were comparatively more diverse, unique fungal assemblages could be recovered from groundwater, including typical aquatic lineages such as Rozellomycota and Olpidiomycota. The most specious assemblages in groundwater were not linked to the input of organic material from the surface, and as such, seem to be sustained by characteristic groundwater conditions. Based on what is known from closely related fungi, our results suggest that the present fungal communities potentially contribute to mineral weathering, carbon cycling, and denitrification in groundwater. Furthermore, we were able to observe the effects of varying land cover due to agricultural practices on fungal biodiversity in groundwater ecosystems. This study contributes to improving our understanding of fungi in the subsurface aquatic biogeosphere.

Recycling the rain: Exploring forest management practices in a western Mediterranean watershed to recouple the atmospheric and terrestrial water cycle.

Current knowledge of the role that forests play in recycling rainwater has led to the proposal of forest management practices to mitigate desertification in the western Mediterranean basin. Building upon this hypothesis, we present the Mijares watershed in eastern Spain as a detailed case study. We then perform a scientific literature review in the context of the western Mediterranean basin to identify the physical and biophysical uncertainties associated with forest management practices that aim to strengthen the atmospheric and terrestrial components of the water cycle. The review identified eleven interconnected uncertainties that result from complex vegetation, climate, soil, and water relationships. We discuss the need to deepen our understanding of the atmospheric dynamics of the Mijares by accounting for the role of forests in recycling rainfall and by adopting an adaptive management approach to apply the lessons learned in the territory. Based on these considerations, we propose forest management practices to reinforce the water cycle of the watershed. Our work contributes to understanding the uncertainties arising from forest management practices aimed at mitigating desertification, thereby supporting decision-making. These insights apply to other western Mediterranean coastal watersheds.

Accelerated marine carbon cycling forced by tectonic degassing over the Miocene Climate Optimum.

Global warming during the Miocene Climate Optimum (MCO, ∼17-14 million years ago) is associated with massive carbon emissions sourced from the flood basalt volcanism and ocean crustal production. However, the perturbation of tectonic carbon degassing on the interaction between climate change and carbon cycle remains unclear. Here, through time-evolutive phase analysis of new and published high-resolution benthic foraminiferal oxygen (δ18O) and carbon (δ13C) isotope records from the global ocean, we find that variations in the marine carbon cycle lead the climate-cryosphere system (δ13C-lead-δ18O) on 405,000-year eccentricity timescales during the MCO. This is in contrast to the previously reported climate-lead-carbon (δ18O-lead-δ13C) scenario during most of the Oligo-Miocene (∼34-6 million years ago). Further sensitivity analysis and model simulations suggest that the elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations and the resulting greenhouse effect strengthened the low-latitude hydrological cycle during the MCO, accelerating the response of marine carbon cycle to eccentricity forcing. Tropical climate processes played a more important role in regulating carbon-cycle variations when Earth's climate was in a warm regime, as opposed to the dominant influence of polar ice-sheet dynamics during the Plio-Pleistocene (after ∼6 million years ago).