A Kinetic Finite Volume Discretization of the Multidimensional PIDE Model for Gene Regulatory Networks.

In this paper, a finite volume discretization scheme for partial integro-differential equations (PIDEs) describing the temporal evolution of protein distribution in gene regulatory networks is proposed. It is shown that the obtained set of ODEs can be formally represented as a compartmental kinetic system with a strongly connected reaction graph. This allows the application of the theory of nonnegative and compartmental systems for the qualitative analysis of the approximating dynamics. In this framework, it is straightforward to show the existence, uniqueness and stability of equilibria. Moreover, the computation of the stationary probability distribution can be traced back to the solution of linear equations. The discretization scheme is presented for one and multiple dimensional models separately. Illustrative computational examples show the precision of the approach, and good agreement with previous results in the literature.

Memory effects in disease modelling through kernel estimates with oscillatory time history.

We design a linear chain trick algorithm for dynamical systems for which we have oscillatory time histories in the distributed time delay. We make use of this algorithmic framework to analyse memory effects in disease evolution in a population. The modelling is based on a susceptible-infected-recovered SIR-model and on a susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered SEIR-model through a kernel that dampens the activity based on the recent history of infectious individuals. This corresponds to adaptive behavior in the population or through governmental non-pharmaceutical interventions. We use the linear chain trick to show that such a model may be written in a Markovian way, and we analyze the stability of the system. We find that the adaptive behavior gives rise to either a stable equilibrium point or a stable limit cycle for a close to constant number of susceptibles, i.e. locally in time. We also show that the attack rate for this model is lower than it would be without the dampening, although the adaptive behavior disappears as time goes to infinity and the number of infected goes to zero.

Pattern Formation in Mesic Savannas.

We analyze a spatially extended version of a well-known model of forest-savanna dynamics, which presents as a system of nonlinear partial integro-differential equations, and study necessary conditions for pattern-forming bifurcations. Homogeneous solutions dominate the dynamics of the standard forest-savanna model, regardless of the length scales of the various spatial processes considered. However, several different pattern-forming scenarios are possible upon including spatial resource limitation, such as competition for water, soil nutrients, or herbivory effects. Using numerical simulations and continuation, we study the nature of the resulting patterns as a function of system parameters and length scales, uncovering subcritical pattern-forming bifurcations and observing significant regions of multistability for realistic parameter regimes. Finally, we discuss our results in the context of extant savanna-forest modeling efforts and highlight ongoing challenges in building a unifying mathematical model for savannas across different rainfall levels.

An age-of-infection model with both symptomatic and asymptomatic infections.

We formulate a general age-of-infection epidemic model with two pathways: the symptomatic infections and the asymptomatic infections. We then calculate the basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] and establish the final size relation. It is shown that the ratio of accumulated counts of symptomatic patients and asymptomatic patients is determined by the symptomatic ratio f which is defined as the probability of eventually becoming symptomatic after being infected. We also formulate and study a general age-of-infection model with disease deaths and with two infection pathways. The final size relation is investigated, and the upper and lower bounds for final epidemic size are given. Several numerical simulations are performed to verify the analytical results.

Local asymptotic stability of a system of integro-differential equations describing clonal evolution of a self-renewing cell population under mutation.

In this paper we consider a system of non-linear integro-differential equations (IDEs) describing evolution of a clonally heterogeneous population of malignant white blood cells (leukemic cells) undergoing mutation and clonal selection. We prove existence and uniqueness of non-trivial steady states and study their asymptotic stability. The results are compared to those of the system without mutation. Existence of equilibria is proved by formulating the steady state problem as an eigenvalue problem and applying a version of the Krein-Rutmann theorem for Banach lattices. The stability at equilibrium is analysed using linearisation and the Weinstein-Aronszajn determinant which allows to conclude local asymptotic stability.

A Mathematical Study of the Influence of Hypoxia and Acidity on the Evolutionary Dynamics of Cancer.

Hypoxia and acidity act as environmental stressors promoting selection for cancer cells with a more aggressive phenotype. As a result, a deeper theoretical understanding of the spatio-temporal processes that drive the adaptation of tumour cells to hypoxic and acidic microenvironments may open up new avenues of research in oncology and cancer treatment. We present a mathematical model to study the influence of hypoxia and acidity on the evolutionary dynamics of cancer cells in vascularised tumours. The model is formulated as a system of partial integro-differential equations that describe the phenotypic evolution of cancer cells in response to dynamic variations in the spatial distribution of three abiotic factors that are key players in tumour metabolism: oxygen, glucose and lactate. The results of numerical simulations of a calibrated version of the model based on real data recapitulate the eco-evolutionary spatial dynamics of tumour cells and their adaptation to hypoxic and acidic microenvironments. Moreover, such results demonstrate how nonlinear interactions between tumour cells and abiotic factors can lead to the formation of environmental gradients which select for cells with phenotypic characteristics that vary with distance from intra-tumour blood vessels, thus promoting the emergence of intra-tumour phenotypic heterogeneity. Finally, our theoretical findings reconcile the conclusions of earlier studies by showing that the order in which resistance to hypoxia and resistance to acidity arise in tumours depend on the ways in which oxygen and lactate act as environmental stressors in the evolutionary dynamics of cancer cells.

Nonlocal and local models for taxis in cell migration: a rigorous limit procedure.

A rigorous limit procedure is presented which links nonlocal models involving adhesion or nonlocal chemotaxis to their local counterparts featuring haptotaxis and classical chemotaxis, respectively. It relies on a novel reformulation of the involved nonlocalities in terms of integral operators applied directly to the gradients of signal-dependent quantities. The proposed approach handles both model types in a unified way and extends the previous mathematical framework to settings that allow for general solution-dependent coefficient functions. The previous forms of nonlocal operators are compared with the new ones introduced in this paper and the advantages of the latter are highlighted by concrete examples. Numerical simulations in 1D provide an illustration of some of the theoretical findings.

Implicit Riesz wavelets based-method for solving singular fractional integro-differential equations with applications to hematopoietic stem cell modeling.

Riesz wavelets in L 2 ( R ) have been proven as a useful tool in the context of both pure and numerical analysis in many applications, due to their well prevailing and recognized theory and its natural properties such as sparsity and stability which lead to a well-conditioned scheme. In this paper, an effective and accurate technique based on Riesz wavelets is presented for solving weakly singular type of fractional order integro-differential equations with applications to solve system of fractional order model that describe the dynamics of uninfected, infected and free virus carried out by cytotoxic T lymphocytes (CTL). The Riesz wavelet in this work is constructed via the smoothed pseudo-splines refinable functions. The advantage of using such wavelets, in the context of fractional and integro-differential equations, lies on the simple structure of the reduced systems and in the powerfulness of obtaining approximated solutions for such equations that have weakly singular kernels. The proposed method shows a good performance and high accuracy orders.

A Collocation Method for Numerical Solution of Nonlinear Delay Integro-Differential Equations for Wireless Sensor Network and Internet of Things.

Wireless sensor network and industrial internet of things have been a growing area of research which is exploited in various fields such as smart home, smart industries, smart transportation, and so on. There is a need of a mechanism which can easily tackle the problems of nonlinear delay integro-differential equations for large-scale applications of Internet of Things. In this paper, Haar wavelet collocation technique is developed for the solution of nonlinear delay integro-differential equations for wireless sensor network and industrial Internet of Things. The method is applied to nonlinear delay Volterra, delay Fredholm and delay Volterra-Fredholm integro-differential equations which are based on the use of Haar wavelets. Some examples are given to show the computational efficiency of the proposed technique. The approximate solutions are compared with the exact solution. The maximum absolute and mean square roots errors for distant number of collocation points are also calculated. The results show that Haar method is efficient for solving these equations for industrial Internet of Things. The results are compared with existing methods from the literature. The results exhibit that the method is simple, precise and efficient.

Diauxic Growth at the Mesoscopic Scale.

In the present paper, we study a diauxic growth that can be generated by a class of model at the mesoscopic scale. Although the diauxic growth can be related to the macroscopic scale, similarly to the logistic scale, one may ask whether models on mesoscopic or microscopic scales may lead to such a behavior. The present paper is the first step towards the developing of the mesoscopic models that lead to a diauxic growth at the macroscopic scale. We propose various nonlinear mesoscopic models conservative or not that lead directly to some diauxic growths.

A structured population model of clonal selection in acute leukemias with multiple maturation stages.

Recent progress in genetic techniques has shed light on the complex co-evolution of malignant cell clones in leukemias. However, several aspects of clonal selection still remain unclear. In this paper, we present a multi-compartmental continuously structured population model of selection dynamics in acute leukemias, which consists of a system of coupled integro-differential equations. Our model can be analysed in a more efficient way than classical models formulated in terms of ordinary differential equations. Exploiting the analytical tractability of this model, we investigate how clonal selection is shaped by the self-renewal fraction and the proliferation rate of leukemic cells at different maturation stages. We integrate analytical results with numerical solutions of a calibrated version of the model based on real patient data. In summary, our mathematical results formalise the biological notion that clonal selection is driven by the self-renewal fraction of leukemic stem cells and the clones that possess the highest value of this parameter are ultimately selected. Moreover, we demonstrate that the self-renewal fraction and the proliferation rate of non-stem cells do not have a substantial impact on clonal selection. Taken together, our results indicate that interclonal variability in the self-renewal fraction of leukemic stem cells provides the necessary substrate for clonal selection to act upon.

An Alternative Formulation for a Distributed Delayed Logistic Equation.

We study an alternative single species logistic distributed delay differential equation (DDE) with decay-consistent delay in growth. Population oscillation is rarely observed in nature, in contrast to the outcomes of the classical logistic DDE. In the alternative discrete delay model proposed by Arino et al. (J Theor Biol 241(1):109-119, 2006), oscillatory behavior is excluded. This study adapts their idea of the decay-consistent delay and generalizes their model. We establish a threshold for survival and extinction: In the former case, it is confirmed using Lyapunov functionals that the population approaches the delay modified carrying capacity; in the later case the extinction is proved by the fluctuation lemma. We further use adaptive dynamics to conclude that the evolutionary trend is to make the mean delay in growth as short as possible. This confirms Hutchinson's conjecture (Hutchinson in Ann N Y Acad Sci 50(4):221-246, 1948) and fits biological evidence.

Evaluation of performance of distributed delay model for chemotherapy-induced myelosuppression.

The distributed delay model has been introduced that replaces the transit compartments in the classic model of chemotherapy-induced myelosuppression with a convolution integral. The maturation of granulocyte precursors in the bone marrow is described by the gamma probability density function with the shape parameter (ν). If ν is a positive integer, the distributed delay model coincides with the classic model with ν transit compartments. The purpose of this work was to evaluate performance of the distributed delay model with particular focus on model deterministic identifiability in the presence of the shape parameter. The classic model served as a reference for comparison. Previously published white blood cell (WBC) count data in rats receiving bolus doses of 5-fluorouracil were fitted by both models. The negative two log-likelihood objective function (-2LL) and running times were used as major markers of performance. Local sensitivity analysis was done to evaluate the impact of ν on the pharmacodynamics response WBC. The ν estimate was 1.46 with 16.1% CV% compared to ν = 3 for the classic model. The difference of 6.78 in - 2LL between classic model and the distributed delay model implied that the latter performed significantly better than former according to the log-likelihood ratio test (P = 0.009), although the overall performance was modestly better. The running times were 1 s and 66.2 min, respectively. The long running time of the distributed delay model was attributed to computationally intensive evaluation of the convolution integral. The sensitivity analysis revealed that ν strongly influences the WBC response by controlling cell proliferation and elimination of WBCs from the circulation. In conclusion, the distributed delay model was deterministically identifiable from typical cytotoxic data. Its performance was modestly better than the classic model with significantly longer running time.

Equivalent probability density moments determine equivalent epidemics in an SIRS model with temporary immunity.

In an SIRS compartment model for a disease we consider the effect of different probability distributions for remaining immune. We show that to first approximation the first three moments of the corresponding probability densities are sufficient to well describe oscillatory solutions corresponding to recurrent epidemics. Specifically, increasing the fraction who lose immunity, increasing the mean immunity time, and decreasing the heterogeneity of the population all favor the onset of epidemics and increase their severity. We consider six different distributions, some symmetric about their mean and some asymmetric, and show that by tuning their parameters such that they have equivalent moments that they all exhibit equivalent dynamical behavior.

Modeling the Transfer of Drug Resistance in Solid Tumors.

ABC efflux transporters are a key factor leading to multidrug resistance in cancer. Overexpression of these transporters significantly decreases the efficacy of anti-cancer drugs. Along with selection and induction, drug resistance may be transferred between cells, which is the focus of this paper. Specifically, we consider the intercellular transfer of P-glycoprotein (P-gp), a well-known ABC transporter that was shown to confer resistance to many common chemotherapeutic drugs. In a recent paper, Durán et al. (Bull Math Biol 78(6):1218-1237, 2016) studied the dynamics of mixed cultures of resistant and sensitive NCI-H460 (human non-small lung cancer) cell lines. As expected, the experimental data showed a gradual increase in the percentage of resistance cells and a decrease in the percentage of sensitive cells. The experimental work was accompanied with a mathematical model that assumed P-gp transfer from resistant cells to sensitive cells, rendering them temporarily resistant. The mathematical model provided a reasonable fit to the experimental data. In this paper, we develop a new mathematical model for the transfer of drug resistance between cancer cells. Our model is based on incorporating a resistance phenotype into a model of cancer growth (Greene et al. in J Theor Biol 367:262-277, 2015). The resulting model for P-gp transfer, written as a system of integro-differential equations, follows the dynamics of proliferating, quiescent, and apoptotic cells, with a varying resistance phenotype. We show that this model provides a good match to the dynamics of the experimental data of Durán et al. (2016). The mathematical model shows a better fit when resistant cancer cells have a slower division rate than the sensitive cells.

Mass concentration in a nonlocal model of clonal selection.

Self-renewal is a constitutive property of stem cells. Testing the cancer stem cell hypothesis requires investigation of the impact of self-renewal on cancer expansion. To better understand this impact, we propose a mathematical model describing the dynamics of a continuum of cell clones structured by the self-renewal potential. The model is an extension of the finite multi-compartment models of interactions between normal and cancer cells in acute leukemias. It takes a form of a system of integro-differential equations with a nonlinear and nonlocal coupling which describes regulatory feedback loops of cell proliferation and differentiation. We show that this coupling leads to mass concentration in points corresponding to the maxima of the self-renewal potential and the solutions of the model tend asymptotically to Dirac measures multiplied by positive constants. Furthermore, using a Lyapunov function constructed for the finite dimensional counterpart of the model, we prove that the total mass of the solution converges to a globally stable equilibrium. Additionally, we show stability of the model in the space of positive Radon measures equipped with the flat metric (bounded Lipschitz distance). Analytical results are illustrated by numerical simulations.

Dissecting the dynamics of epigenetic changes in phenotype-structured populations exposed to fluctuating environments.

An enduring puzzle in evolutionary biology is to understand how individuals and populations adapt to fluctuating environments. Here we present an integro-differential model of adaptive dynamics in a phenotype-structured population whose fitness landscape evolves in time due to periodic environmental oscillations. The analytical tractability of our model allows for a systematic investigation of the relative contributions of heritable variations in gene expression, environmental changes and natural selection as drivers of phenotypic adaptation. We show that environmental fluctuations can induce the population to enter an unstable and fluctuation-driven epigenetic state. We demonstrate that this can trigger the emergence of oscillations in the size of the population, and we establish a full characterisation of such oscillations. Moreover, the results of our analyses provide a formal basis for the claim that higher rates of epimutations can bring about higher levels of intrapopulation heterogeneity, whilst intense selection pressures can deplete variation in the phenotypic pool of asexual populations. Finally, our work illustrates how the dynamics of the population size is led by a strong synergism between the rate of phenotypic variation and the frequency of environmental oscillations, and identifies possible ecological conditions that promote the maximisation of the population size in fluctuating environments.

Modeling intrinsic heterogeneity and growth of cancer cells.

Intratumoral heterogeneity has been found to be a major cause of drug resistance. Cell-to-cell variation increases as a result of cancer-related alterations, which are acquired by stochastic events and further induced by environmental signals. However, most cellular mechanisms include natural fluctuations that are closely regulated, and thus lead to asynchronization of the cells, which causes intrinsic heterogeneity in a given population. Here, we derive two novel mathematical models, a stochastic agent-based model and an integro-differential equation model, each of which describes the growth of cancer cells as a dynamic transition between proliferative and quiescent states. These models are designed to predict variations in growth as a function of the intrinsic heterogeneity emerging from the durations of the cell-cycle and apoptosis, and also include cellular density dependencies. By examining the role all parameters play in the evolution of intrinsic tumor heterogeneity, and the sensitivity of the population growth to parameter values, we show that the cell-cycle length has the most significant effect on the growth dynamics. In addition, we demonstrate that the agent-based model can be approximated well by the more computationally efficient integro-differential equations when the number of cells is large. This essential step in cancer growth modeling will allow us to revisit the mechanisms of multidrug resistance by examining spatiotemporal differences of cell growth while administering a drug among the different sub-populations in a single tumor, as well as the evolution of those mechanisms as a function of the resistance level.

Revisiting the Stability of Spatially Heterogeneous Predator-Prey Systems Under Eutrophication.

We employ partial integro-differential equations to model trophic interaction in a spatially extended heterogeneous environment. Compared to classical reaction-diffusion models, this framework allows us to more realistically describe the situation where movement of individuals occurs on a faster time scale than on the demographic (population) time scale, and we cannot determine population growth based on local density. However, most of the results reported so far for such systems have only been verified numerically and for a particular choice of model functions, which obviously casts doubts about these findings. In this paper, we analyse a class of integro-differential predator-prey models with a highly mobile predator in a heterogeneous environment, and we reveal the main factors stabilizing such systems. In particular, we explore an ecologically relevant case of interactions in a highly eutrophic environment, where the prey carrying capacity can be formally set to 'infinity'. We investigate two main scenarios: (1) the spatial gradient of the growth rate is due to abiotic factors only, and (2) the local growth rate depends on the global density distribution across the environment (e.g. due to non-local self-shading). For an arbitrary spatial gradient of the prey growth rate, we analytically investigate the possibility of the predator-prey equilibrium in such systems and we explore the conditions of stability of this equilibrium. In particular, we demonstrate that for a Holling type I (linear) functional response, the predator can stabilize the system at low prey density even for an 'unlimited' carrying capacity. We conclude that the interplay between spatial heterogeneity in the prey growth and fast displacement of the predator across the habitat works as an efficient stabilizing mechanism. These results highlight the generality of the stabilization mechanisms we find in spatially structured predator-prey ecological systems in a heterogeneous environment.

Modeling the morphodynamic galectin patterning network of the developing avian limb skeleton.

We present a mathematical model for the morphogenesis and patterning of the mesenchymal condensations that serve as primordia of the avian limb skeleton. The model is based on the experimentally established dynamics of a multiscale regulatory network consisting of two glycan-binding proteins expressed early in limb development: CG (chicken galectin)-1A, CG-8 and their counterreceptors that determine the formation, size, number and spacing of the "protocondensations" that give rise to the condensations and subsequently the cartilaginous elements that serve as the templates of the bones. The model, a system of partial differential and integro-differential equations containing a flux term to represent local adhesion gradients, is simulated in a "full" and a "reduced" form to confirm that the system has pattern-forming capabilities and to explore the nature of the patterning instability. The full model recapitulates qualitatively and quantitatively the experimental results of network perturbation and leads to new predictions, which are verified by further experimentation. The reduced model is used to demonstrate that the patterning process is inherently morphodynamic, with cell motility being intrinsic to it. Furthermore, subtle relationships between cell movement and the positive and negative interactions between the morphogens produce regular patterns without the requirement for activators and inhibitors with widely separated diffusion coefficients. The described mechanism thus represents an extension of the category of activator-inhibitor processes capable of generating biological patterns with repetitive elements beyond the morphostatic mechanisms of the Turing/Gierer-Meinhardt type.