Alcohol Use Disorder Polygenic Risk Scores and Trajectories of Early Adolescent Externalizing Behaviors: Examining the Role of Parenting and Family Conflict in the Racially/Ethnically Diverse ABCD Sample.

This study examined the independent and interactive effects of alcohol use disorder genome-wide polygenic scores (AUD-PGS) and parenting and family conflict on early adolescent externalizing behaviors. Data were drawn from White (N = 6181, 46.9% female), Black/African American (N = 1784, 50.1% female), and Hispanic/Latinx (N = 2410, 48.0% female) youth from the adolescent brain cognitive development Study (ABCD). Parents reported on youth externalizing behaviors at baseline (T1, age 9/10), 1-year (T2, age 10/11) and 2-year (T3, age 11/12) assessments. Youth reported on parenting and family environment at T1 and provided saliva or blood samples for genotyping. Results from latent growth models indicated that in general externalizing behaviors decreased from T1 to T3. Across all groups, higher family conflict was associated with more externalizing behaviors at T1, and we did not find significant associations between parental monitoring and early adolescent externalizing behaviors. Parental acceptance was associated with lower externalizing behaviors among White and Hispanic youth, but not among Black youth. Results indicated no significant main effect of AUD-PGS nor interaction effect between AUD-PGS and family variables on early adolescent externalizing behaviors. Post hoc exploratory analysis uncovered an interaction between AUD-PGS and parental acceptance such that AUD-PGS was positively associated with externalizing rule-breaking behaviors among Hispanic youth, but only when parental acceptance was very low. Findings highlight the important role of family conflict and parental acceptance in externalizing behaviors among early adolescents, and emphasize the need to examine other developmental pathways underlying genetic risk for AUD across diverse populations.

Long-term trajectories of densely reported depressive symptoms during an extended period of the COVID-19 pandemic in Switzerland: Social worries matter.

Previous mental health trajectory studies were mostly limited to the months before access to vaccination. They are not informing on whether public mental health has adapted to the pandemic. The aim of this analysis was to 1) investigate trajectories of monthly reported depressive symptoms from July 2020 to December 2021 in Switzerland, 2) compare average growth trajectories across regions with different stringency phases, and 3) explore the relative impact of self-reported worries related to health, economic and social domains as well as socio-economic indicators on growth trajectories. As part of the population-based Corona Immunitas program of regional, but harmonized, adult cohorts studying the pandemic course and impact, participants repeatedly reported online to the DASS-21 instrument on depressive symptomatology. Trajectories of depressive symptoms were estimated using a latent growth model, specified as a generalised linear mixed model. The time effect was modelled parametrically through a polynomial allowing to estimate trajectories for participants' missing time points. In all regions level and shape of the trajectories mirrored those of the KOF Stringency-Plus Index, which quantifies regional Covid-19 policy stringency. The higher level of average depression in trajectories of those expressing specific worries was most noticeable for the social domain. Younger age, female gender, and low household income went along with higher mean depression score trajectories throughout follow-up. Interventions to promote long-term resilience are an important part of pandemic preparedness, given the observed lack of an adaptation in mental health response to the pandemic even after the availability of vaccines in this high-income context.

Adjusting for Measurement Noninvariance with Alignment in Growth Modeling.

Longitudinal measurement invariance-the consistency of measurement in data collected over time-is a prerequisite for any meaningful inferences of growth patterns. When one or more items measuring the construct of interest show noninvariant measurement properties over time, it leads to biased parameter estimates and inferences on the growth parameters. In this paper, I extend the recently developed alignment-within-confirmatory factor analysis (AwC) technique to adjust for measurement biases for growth models. The proposed AwC method does not require a priori knowledge of noninvariant items and the iterative searching of noninvariant items in typical longitudinal measurement invariance research. Results of a Monte Carlo simulation study comparing AwC with the partial invariance modeling method show that AwC largely reduces biases in growth parameter estimates and gives good control of Type I error rates, especially when the sample size is at least 1,000. It also outperforms the partial invariance method in conditions when all items are noninvariant. However, all methods give biased growth parameter estimates when the proportion of noninvariant parameters is over 25%. Based on the simulation results, I conclude that AO is a viable alternative to the partial invariance method in growth modeling when it is not clear whether longitudinal measurement invariance holds. The current paper also demonstrates AwC in an example modeling neuroticism over three time points using a public data set, which shows how researchers can compute effect size indices for noninvariance in AwC to assess to what degree invariance holds and whether AwC results are trustworthy.

How the COVID-19 Pandemic and its Consequences Affect the Presence of and Search for Meaning of Life: A Longitudinal Study.

The presence of meaning in life (PML) and the search for meaning in life (SML) are crucial when facing difficult times. Although several theoretical frameworks have tried to explain the dynamics of meaning in life during adversity, empirical evidence about interactions among both constructs using longitudinal designs is scarce. This study examined the trajectories of both PML and SML during the COVID-19 lockdown period in Spain. In total, 220 adults fulfilled an online survey during two periods: a strict and a relaxed lockdown period. Latent growth models showed that both PML and SML declined slightly during the strict lockdown, but they reached a plateau during the relaxed lockdown. Results also showed that age and having a partner predicted higher PML and lower SML at baseline, whereas being male predicted higher scores on PML. PML and SML were negatively associated at baseline, higher SML at baseline was related to a steeper decreasing PML slope during the strict lockdown, and the PML and SML slopes in the relaxed lockdown period were negatively related. This study contributes to better understanding longitudinal fluctuations of meaning in life in situations of adversity.

Delineating Developmental Periods in Adulthood Suggests Age-Related Shifts in the Correlates of Alcohol Use and Problems.

BACKGROUND: Developmental context is related to the propensity to engage in alcohol use, the rate at which alcohol use changes, and the relevance of different risk factors to alcohol use disorder (AUD). Therefore, studies of change should consider developmental nuances, but change is often modeled to follow a uniform pattern, even across distinct developmental periods. METHODS: This study implemented a novel analytic approach to delineate developmental periods of alcohol behavior (n = 478, ages 18 to 35). This approach was further leveraged to examine age-related shifts in the association of impulsivity risk factors (lack of planning, general sensation seeking, alcohol enhancement expectancies) with alcohol behavior (alcohol quantity*frequency, heavy drinking, AUD). RESULTS: A sequence of exploratory and confirmatory latent growth models (LGMs) suggested modeling separate linear change factors for alcohol behavior during the primary college (ages 18 to 21) and postcollege years (21 to 35). Bivariate LGMs estimated correlations for alcohol behavior changes with lack of planning, sensation seeking, and enhancement expectancies during these periods. The rate at which heavy drinking changed during the college years was positively correlated with general sensation seeking and lack of planning during this period (rs = 0.61 to 0.63). These correlations were significantly weaker during the postcollege years (rs = 0.29 to 0.34). Notably, the rate of change in alcohol behavior was strongly correlated with enhancement expectancies during the college (r = 0.45 to 0.70) and postcollege years (r = 0.45 to 0.61). CONCLUSIONS: These findings highlight the importance of sensation seeking and lack of planning with regard to adult alcohol use, particularly in a college environment. There was also a strong link between the rates of change in alcohol behavior and enhancement expectancies across all waves. This study supports the utility of exploratory LGMs for delineating developmental periods of alcohol behavior, which are characterized by different processes.

Global and Regional Trends of Multiple Sclerosis Disability-Adjusted Life Years Rates: A 25-Year Assessment.

BACKGROUND: Multiple sclerosis (MS) burden of disease has been described by reporting the disability-adjusted life years (DALY) index. So far, no study has assessed the trend of MS DALY rates over time. METHOD: Age-standardized MS DALY rates for both sexes were reported every 5 years from 1990 to 2015 in 195 countries in the Global Burden of Disease Database (GBD) database. To assess the MS DALY rates' trends in each super region and throughout the world, we applied the Latent Growth Models. We also utilized the linear mixed model to evaluate the effect of development factor on MS DALY rates. RESULTS: Our results showed that 5 out of 7 GBD super regions had negative trends in MS DALY rates during these years and the remaining 2 - Latin America and the Caribbean (slope = 0.196, p < 0.05) and South Asia - slope = 0.057, p > 0.05 - had upward trends. Using a linear mixed model, we found that the mean difference of MS DALY rates was about 25 DALYs higher in developed countries compared to developing ones (p < 0.0001). CONCLUSION: In general, our findings revealed a global downward trend in the MS DALY rate. We also conclude that MS DALY rates are decreasing both in developed and developing countries, with a steeper slope in the developed world.

Latent Growth Models with Floors, Ceilings, and Random Knots.

In longitudinal/developmental studies, individual growth trajectories are sometimes bounded by a floor at the beginning of the observation period and/or a ceiling toward the end of the observation period (or vice versa), resulting in inherently nonlinear growth patterns. If the trajectories between the floor and ceiling are approximately linear, such longitudinal growth patterns can be described with a linear piecewise (spline) model in which segments join at knots. In these scenarios, it may be of specific interest for researchers to examine the timing when transition occurs, and in some occasions also to examine the levels of the floors and/or ceilings if they are not known and fixed. In the current study, we propose a reparameterized piecewise latent growth curve model so that a direct estimation of the random knots (and, if needed, a direct estimation of random floors and ceilings) is possible. We derive the model reparameterization using a 4-step structured latent curve modeling approach. We provide two illustrative examples to demonstrate how the proposed reparameterized models can be fitted to longitudinal growth data using the popular SEM software Mplus and we supply the full coding for applied researchers' reference.

Bayesian PTSD-Trajectory Analysis with Informed Priors Based on a Systematic Literature Search and Expert Elicitation.

There is a recent increase in interest of Bayesian analysis. However, little effort has been made thus far to directly incorporate background knowledge via the prior distribution into the analyses. This process might be especially useful in the context of latent growth mixture modeling when one or more of the latent groups are expected to be relatively small due to what we refer to as limited data. We argue that the use of Bayesian statistics has great advantages in limited data situations, but only if background knowledge can be incorporated into the analysis via prior distributions. We highlight these advantages through a data set including patients with burn injuries and analyze trajectories of posttraumatic stress symptoms using the Bayesian framework following the steps of the WAMBS-checklist. In the included example, we illustrate how to obtain background information using previous literature based on a systematic literature search and by using expert knowledge. Finally, we show how to translate this knowledge into prior distributions and we illustrate the importance of conducting a prior sensitivity analysis. Although our example is from the trauma field, the techniques we illustrate can be applied to any field.

Estimation of a Latent Variable Regression Growth Curve Model for Individuals Cross-Classified by Clusters.

The cross-classified multiple membership latent variable regression (CCMM-LVR) model is a recent extension to the three-level latent variable regression (HM3-LVR) model which can be utilized for longitudinal data that contains individuals who changed clusters over time (for instance, student mobility across schools). The HM3-LVR model can include the initial status on growth effect as varying across those clusters and allows testing of more flexible hypotheses about the influence of initial status on growth and of factors that might impact that relationship, but only in the presence of pure clustering of participants within higher-level units. This Monte Carlo study was conducted to evaluate model estimation under a variety of conditions and to measure the impact of ignoring cross-classified data when estimating the incorrectly specified HM3-LVR model in a scenario in which true values for parameters are known. Furthermore, results from a real-data analysis were used to inform the design of the simulation. Overall, it would be recommended for researchers to utilize the CCMM-LVR model over the HM3-LVR model when individuals are cross-classified, and to use a bare minimum of more than 100 clustering units in order to avoid overestimation of the level-3 variance component estimates.

Cross-Sectional Analysis of Longitudinal Mediation Processes.

Statistical mediation analysis can help to identify and explain the mechanisms behind psychological processes. Examining a set of variables for mediation effects is a ubiquitous process in the social sciences literature; however, despite evidence suggesting that cross-sectional data can misrepresent the mediation of longitudinal processes, cross-sectional analyses continue to be used in this manner. Alternative longitudinal mediation models, including those rooted in a structural equation modeling framework (cross-lagged panel, latent growth curve, and latent difference score models) are currently available and may provide a better representation of mediation processes for longitudinal data. The purpose of this paper is twofold: first, we provide a comparison of cross-sectional and longitudinal mediation models; second, we advocate using models to evaluate mediation effects that capture the temporal sequence of the process under study. Two separate empirical examples are presented to illustrate differences in the conclusions drawn from cross-sectional and longitudinal mediation analyses. Findings from these examples yielded substantial differences in interpretations between the cross-sectional and longitudinal mediation models considered here. Based on these observations, researchers should use caution when attempting to use cross-sectional data in place of longitudinal data for mediation analyses.

Determinants of longitudinal health-related quality-of-life change in children with asthma from low-income families: a report from the PROMIS® Pediatric Asthma Study.

BACKGROUND: How the longitudinal asthma control status and other socio-demographic factors influence the changes of health-related quality of life (HRQOL) among asthmatic children, especially from low-income families, has not been fully investigated. OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to describe the trajectories of asthma-specific HRQOL over 15 months and examine the effect of asthma control status on HRQOL by taking socio-demographic factors into consideration. METHODS: A total of 229 dyads of asthmatic children and their parents enroled in public insurance programs were recruited for assessing asthma control status and HRQOL over four time points of assessment. Asthma control status was measured using the Asthma Control and Communication Instrument, and asthma-specific HRQOL was assessed using the Patient-Reported Outcomes Measurement Information System's Pediatric Asthma Impact Scale. Latent growth models (LGMs) were applied to examine the trajectory of HRQOL and the factors contributing to the changes of HRQOL. RESULTS: Unconditional LGM revealed that HRQOL was improved over time. Conditional LGM suggested that accounting for asthma control and participants' socio-demographic factors, the variation in the initial level of HRQOL was significant, yet the rate of change was not. Conditional LGM also revealed that poorly controlled asthma status was associated with poor HRQOL at each time point (P's < 0.05). Lower parental education was associated with lower baseline HRQOL (P < 0.05). Hispanic children had a larger increase in HRQOL over time (P < 0.01) than non-Hispanic White children. CONCLUSIONS: Vulnerable socio-demographic characteristics and poorly controlled asthma status affect HRQOL in children. This finding encourages interventions to improve asthma control status and HRQOL in minority children.

Depression and frailty: concurrent risks for adverse health outcomes.

OBJECTIVES: This study used latent growth curve modeling (LGCM) to estimate the independent and joint associations between frailty and depression trajectories and likelihood of nursing home admission and falls resulting in injury. METHODS: Data come from five waves (2004-2012) of the Health and Retirement Study. Community-dwelling individuals aged 51 and older (N = 13,495) were analyzed using LGCM. Frailty was measured using a frailty index consisting of 30 deficits. Depressive symptoms were measured using the eight-item Centers for Epidemiologic Studies - Depression scale. Adverse health outcomes included nursing home admissions and falls resulting in injury. RESULTS: Prevalence of frailty increased over the study period (24.1%-32.1%), while the prevalence of depression was relatively constant over time (approximately 13%). Parallel process LGCM showed that more rapid increases of frailty and depressive symptoms were associated with higher odds of both nursing home admission and serious falls over time (Frailty: ORNursinghome = 1.33, 95% CI: 1.09-1.66; ORFall = 1.52, 95% CI: 1.12-2.08; Depression: ORNursinghome = 3.63, 95% CI: 1.29-9.97; ORFall = 1.16, 95% CI: 1.01-1.34). Associations between frailty and adverse outcomes were attenuated, and in some cases were no longer statistically significant, after accounting for concurrent depression. CONCLUSION: Frailty trajectories may be important indicators of risk for nursing home admissions and falls, independent of baseline frailty status; however, concurrent depression trajectories are associated with adverse outcomes to a similar degree as frailty. Focus should be given to distilling elements of the frailty index which confer most risk for poor health outcomes.

Implicit theories of writing and their impact on students' response to a SRSD intervention.

BACKGROUND: In the field of intelligence research, it has been shown that some people conceive intelligence as a fixed trait that cannot be changed (entity beliefs), whereas others conceive it as a malleable trait that can be developed (incremental beliefs). What about writing? Do people hold similar implicit theories about the nature of their writing ability? Furthermore, are these beliefs likely to influence students' response to a writing intervention? AIMS: We aimed to develop a scale to measure students' implicit theories of writing (pilot study) and to test whether these beliefs influence strategy-instruction effectiveness (intervention study). SAMPLE: In the pilot and intervention studies participated, respectively, 128 and 192 students (Grades 5-6). METHOD: Based on existing instruments that measure self-theories of intelligence, we developed the Implicit Theories of Writing (ITW) scale that was tested with the pilot sample. In the intervention study, 109 students received planning instruction based on the self-regulated strategy development model, whereas 83 students received standard writing instruction. Students were evaluated before, in the middle, and after instruction. RESULTS: ITW's validity was supported by piloting results and their successful cross-validation in the intervention study. In this, intervention students wrote longer and better texts than control students. Moreover, latent growth curve modelling showed that the more the intervention students conceived writing as a malleable skill, the more the quality of their texts improved. CONCLUSION: This research is of educational relevance because it provides a measure to evaluate students' implicit theories of writing and shows their impact on response to intervention.

Apolipoprotein E ε4 and later-life decline in cognitive function and grip strength.

OBJECTIVES: Presence of the apolipoprotein E (APOE) ε4 allele is a risk factor for dementia, whereas the ε2 allele offers protection against dementia. There is also evidence for a relationship between APOE genotype and changes in cognitive function. It is not clear, however, whether this relationship stems from undetected disease in persons genetically more vulnerable to dementia. This study examined whether APOE genotype was associated with either initial performance or change in performance on a range of cognitive and noncognitive tasks, after accounting for possible preclinical dementia. DESIGN: A population-based cohort was assessed up to four times over 12 years. PARTICIPANTS: The sample was an Australian cohort of 590 participants age 70 years and older who were genotyped for APOE. MEASUREMENTS: The outcomes were processing speed, verbal fluency, episodic memory, word recognition, face recognition, grip strength, and reaction time. RESULTS: Adjusted latent growth models indicated that ε4 carriers had significantly poorer initial memory performance and greater declines in processing speed and word recognition than ε2 and ε3 carriers. In addition, ε2 carriers exhibited significantly less decline in right grip strength than ε3 carriers. However, after excluding 125 participants with low global cognition scores, all genotype effects became nonsignificant. CONCLUSIONS: Over a 12-year period, findings indicate that APOE ε4-related cognitive decline in older community-dwelling populations is due to a higher likelihood of preclinical dementia among ε4 carriers. When possible dementia cases are removed from the analyses, ε4 associations with cognitive decline become statistically unreliable.

Prolonged Sitting in University Students: An Intra-Individual Study Exploring Physical Activity Value as a Deterrent.

University students are a subpopulation of young adults highly susceptible to prolonged bouts of sitting. The purpose of this study was to investigate university students' intra-individual patterns of prolonged daily sitting, exploring gender and physical activity value beliefs as covariates. A total of 71 students reported the number of days each week they spent in bouts of prolonged sitting (2 + continuous hours) over a five-week timeframe. The findings revealed that at the beginning of the study, the students spent about four days per week in prolonged bouts of sitting although there was substantial variability in the sample. Intra-individual changes over the five weeks occurred in a non-linear fashion with a variability in these trajectories. Men reported approximately one less day of prolonged sitting per week although gender did not predict changes over time. Physical activity value beliefs were negatively related to prolonged bouts of sitting when averaged across time. The results illustrate the variable nature of prolonged sitting in university student populations, highlighting the need for implementing individualized intervention strategies targeting sedentary behavior.

Regression-Equivalent Effect Sizes for Latent Growth Modeling and Associated Null Hypothesis Significance Tests.

The effect of an independent variable on random slopes in growth modeling with latent variables is conventionally used to examine predictors of change over the course of a study. This tutorial demonstrates that the same effect of a covariate on growth can be obtained by using final status centering for parameterization and regressing the random intercepts (or the intercept factor scores) on both the independent variable and a baseline covariate--the framework used to study change with classical regression analysis. Examples are provided that illustrate the application of an intercept-focused approach to obtain effect sizes--the unstandardized regression coefficient, the standardized regression coefficient, squared semi-partial correlation, and Cohen's f2 --that estimate the same parameters as respective effect sizes from a classical regression analysis. Moreover, statistical power to detect the effect of the predictor on growth was greater when using random intercepts than the conventionally used random slopes.

The Age-Dependent Association Between Vascular Risk Factors and Depressed Mood.

OBJECTIVES: Cumulative burden of vascular risk factors (VRFs) has been linked to an increased risk of depressed mood. However, the role of age in this association is still unclear. Here, we investigated whether VRF burden is associated with levels and changes in depressed mood and whether these associations become stronger or weaker from mid- to later life. METHOD: We used longitudinal data from 5,689 participants (52-89 years) of the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing. A composite score incorporated the presence of 5 VRFs: hypertension, diabetes, smoking, obesity, and hypercholesterolemia. Second-order latent growth models were used to test whether levels and changes of depressed mood differed as a function of baseline VRF burden, and whether these associations were moderated by age. RESULTS: Baseline VRF burden showed a small association with higher levels of depressed mood (estimate = 0.081; 95% CI: 0.024, 0.138, p = .005). This association varied with age, such that it was stronger in midlife compared to later life (estimate = -0.007; 95% CI: -0.013, -0.002, p = .017). There was no evidence that VRF burden was associated with changes in depressed mood. DISCUSSION: Our findings suggest that VRF burden in midlife, but less so in later life, predicts individual differences in depressed mood. These findings are consistent with reports on the importance of midlife VRFs and support the idea that promotion of vascular health in this age group or earlier in life may be critical to maintain mental health across adulthood.

Children's behavioral and emotional problems and peer relationships across elementary school: Associations with individual- and school-level parental education.

This study examined (a) whether growing up with lower-educated parents and attending lower parental education schools associated with children's problem development within the behavioral, emotional, and peer relationship domains; and (b) whether the association of lower individual-level parental education with children's development within these three domains depended upon school-level parental education. To this end, 698 children (Mage = 7.08 in first grade) from 31 mainstream elementary schools were annually followed from first grade to sixth grade. Problems within the behavioral domain included conduct problems, oppositional defiant problems, attention-deficit and hyperactivity problems, and aggression. Problems within the emotional domain included depression and anxiety symptoms. Problems within the peer relationship domain included physical victimization, relational victimization, and peer dislike. Results from multi-level latent growth models showed that, as compared to children of higher-educated parents, children of lower-educated parents generally had higher levels of problems within all three domains in first grade and exhibited a faster growth rate of problems within the behavioral domain from first to sixth grade. Furthermore, as compared to children attending higher parental education schools, children attending lower parental education schools generally had higher levels of problems within the behavioral and emotional domains in first grade and showed a faster growth rate of peer dislike over time. In addition, cross-level interaction analyses showed that in higher parental education schools, children of lower-educated parents showed a faster growth rate of depression symptom levels than children of higher-educated parents. In lower parental education schools, the growth rate of depression symptom levels did not differ between children of higher- and lower-educated parents. Results highlight that addressing the needs of lower parental education schools and children growing up with lower-educated parents may be of primary importance.

Trajectories of adolescent life satisfaction.

Increasing global policy interest in measuring and improving population wellbeing has prompted academic investigations into the dynamics of lifespan life satisfaction. Yet little research has assessed the complete adolescent age range, although it harbours developmental changes that could affect wellbeing far into adulthood. This study investigates how life satisfaction develops throughout the whole of adolescence, and compares this development to that in adulthood, by applying exploratory and confirmatory latent growth curve modelling to UK and German data, respectively (37 076 participants, 10-24 years). We find a near universal decrease in life satisfaction during adolescence. This decrease is steeper than at any other point across adulthood. Further, our findings suggest that adolescent girls' life satisfaction is lower than boys', but that this difference does not extend into adulthood. The study highlights the importance of studying adolescent subjective wellbeing trajectories to inform research, policy and practice.

Effect of Parameterization on Statistical Power and Effect Size Estimation in Latent Growth Modeling.

The difference between groups in their random slopes is frequently examined in latent growth modeling to evaluate treatment efficacy. However, when end centering is used for model parameterization with a randomized design, the difference in the random intercepts is the model-estimated mean difference between the groups at the end of the study, which has the same expected value as the product of the coefficient for the slope difference and study duration. A Monte Carlo study found that (a) the statistical power to detect the treatment effect was greater when determined from the intercept instead of the slope difference, and (b) the standard error of the model-estimated mean difference was smaller when obtained from the intercept difference. Investigators may reduce Type II errors by comparing groups in random intercepts instead of random slopes to test treatment effects, and should therefore conduct power assessments using end centering to detect each difference.