Impedance Rhythms in Human Limbic System.

The impedance is a fundamental electrical property of brain tissue, playing a crucial role in shaping the characteristics of local field potentials, the extent of ephaptic coupling, and the volume of tissue activated by externally applied electrical brain stimulation. We tracked brain impedance, sleep-wake behavioral state, and epileptiform activity in five people with epilepsy living in their natural environment using an investigational device. The study identified impedance oscillations that span hours to weeks in the amygdala, hippocampus, and anterior nucleus thalamus. The impedance in these limbic brain regions exhibit multiscale cycles with ultradian (∼1.5-1.7 h), circadian (∼21.6-26.4 h), and infradian (∼20-33 d) periods. The ultradian and circadian period cycles are driven by sleep-wake state transitions between wakefulness, nonrapid eye movement (NREM) sleep, and rapid eye movement (REM) sleep. Limbic brain tissue impedance reaches a minimum value in NREM sleep, intermediate values in REM sleep, and rises through the day during wakefulness, reaching a maximum in the early evening before sleep onset. Infradian (∼20-33 d) impedance cycles were not associated with a distinct behavioral correlate. Brain tissue impedance is known to strongly depend on the extracellular space (ECS) volume, and the findings reported here are consistent with sleep-wake-dependent ECS volume changes recently observed in the rodent cortex related to the brain glymphatic system. We hypothesize that human limbic brain ECS changes during sleep-wake state transitions underlie the observed multiscale impedance cycles. Impedance is a simple electrophysiological biomarker that could prove useful for tracking ECS dynamics in human health, disease, and therapy.SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT The electrical impedance in limbic brain structures (amygdala, hippocampus, anterior nucleus thalamus) is shown to exhibit oscillations over multiple timescales. We observe that impedance oscillations with ultradian and circadian periodicities are associated with transitions between wakefulness, NREM, and REM sleep states. There are also impedance oscillations spanning multiple weeks that do not have a clear behavioral correlate and whose origin remains unclear. These multiscale impedance oscillations will have an impact on extracellular ionic currents that give rise to local field potentials, ephaptic coupling, and the tissue activated by electrical brain stimulation. The approach for measuring tissue impedance using perturbational electrical currents is an established engineering technique that may be useful for tracking ECS volume.

Microbial symbionts buffer hosts from the demographic costs of environmental stochasticity.

Species' persistence in increasingly variable climates will depend on resilience against the fitness costs of environmental stochasticity. Most organisms host microbiota that shield against stressors. Here, we test the hypothesis that, by limiting exposure to temporally variable stressors, microbial symbionts reduce hosts' demographic variance. We parameterized stochastic population models using data from a 14-year symbiont-removal experiment including seven grass species that host Epichloë fungal endophytes. Results provide novel evidence that symbiotic benefits arise not only through improved mean fitness, but also through dampened inter-annual variance. Hosts with "fast" life-history traits benefited most from symbiont-mediated demographic buffering. Under current climate conditions, contributions of demographic buffering were modest compared to benefits to mean fitness. However, simulations of increased stochasticity amplified benefits of demographic buffering and made it the more important pathway of host-symbiont mutualism. Microbial-mediated variance buffering is likely an important, yet cryptic, mechanism of resilience in an increasingly variable world.

Among-species variation in six decades of changing migration timings explained through ecology, life-history and local migratory abundance.

Species exploiting seasonal environments must alter timings of key life-history events in response to large-scale climatic changes in order to maintain trophic synchrony with required resources. Yet, substantial among-species variation in long-term phenological changes has been observed. Advancing from simply describing such variation towards predicting future phenological responses requires studies that rigorously quantify and explain variation in the direction and magnitude of changing timings across diverse species in relation to key ecological and life-history variables. Accordingly, we fitted multi-quantile regressions to 59 years of multi-species data on spring and autumn bird migration timings through northern Scotland. We demonstrate substantial variation in changes in timings among 72 species, and tested whether such variation can be explained by species ecology, life-history and changes in local abundance. Consistent with predictions, species that advanced their migration timing in one or both seasons had more seasonally restricted diet types, fewer suitable breeding habitat types, shorter generation lengths and capability to produce multiple offspring broods per year. In contrast, species with less seasonally restricted diet types and that produce single annual offspring broods, showed no change. Meanwhile, contrary to prediction, long-distance and short-distance migrants advanced migration timings similarly. Changes in migration timing also varied with changes in local migratory abundance, such that species with increasing seasonal abundance apparently altered their migration timing, whilst species with decreasing abundance did not. Such patterns broadly concur with expectation given adaptive changes in migration timing. However, we demonstrate that similar patterns can be generated by numerical sampling given changing local abundances. Any apparent phenology-abundance relationships should, therefore, be carefully validated and interpreted. Overall, our results show that migrant bird species with differing ecologies and life-histories showed systematically differing phenological changes over six decades contextualised by large-scale environmental changes, potentially facilitating future predictions and altering temporal dynamics of seasonal species co-occurrences.

Reaching the steady state: 30 years of Anguillicola crassus infection of European eel, Anguilla anguilla L., in Northern Germany.

A 30 years long data series on the infection dynamics of European eel (Anguilla anguilla L.) with the non-native invasive nematode Anguillicola crassus Kuwahara, Niimi & Hagaki, 1974 is presented. Parasite burden was evaluated for 30 years in inland and coastal waters in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania from 1991 to 2020. The total prevalence, mean intensity and damage status of the swim bladders were very high during the first decade (1991­2000), and significantly decreased in both marine and freshwater eel populations in the following decades (2001­2010, 2011­2020). The parasite intensity of eels in coastal waters was significantly lower compared with the freshwater systems (61.3% vs 79.5% in the first decade), indicating the vulnerability of the parasites to brackish water conditions and the fact that the life cycle of A. crassus cannot be completed under high saline conditions. Eel caught in the western part of the Baltic Sea (west of Darss sill) had the lowest mean infection (51.8% in first decade) compared to the eastern part with 63.8%. Thus, besides different infection patterns caused by the environmental conditions, a temporal trend towards a reduced parasite intensity and a more balanced parasite­host relationship developed in the 30 years of interaction after the first invasion. Possible reasons and mechanisms for the observed trends in parasite­host interactions are discussed.

Long-term data reveal contrasting impacts of native versus invasive nest predators in Iceland.

Bird species on islands are strongly impacted by biological invasions, with the Icelandic common eider (Somateria mollissima borealis) being particularly threatened. Down collection by local families in Breiðafjörður, West Iceland, provided long-term datasets of nests from two archipelagos, covering 95 islands over 123 years and 39 islands over 27 years, respectively. Using these exceptional datasets, we found that the arrival of the invasive semi-aquatic American mink (Neogale vison) was a more impactful driver of population dynamics than climate. This invasive predator heavily reduced eider nest numbers by ca. 60% in the Brokey archipelago. In contrast, we detected an apparently adaptive response to the return of the native fox in the Purkey archipelago, with dense nests on islands inaccessible to the fox and no apparent impact on eider populations. This difference might be due to the eiders lacking a joint evolutionary history with the mink and therefore lacking appropriate antipredator responses.

The unexpected long period of elevated CH4 emissions from an inundated fen meadow ended only with the occurrence of cattail (Typha latifolia).

Drainage and agricultural use transform natural peatlands from a net carbon (C) sink to a net C source. Rewetting of peatlands, despite of high methane (CH4 ) emissions, holds the potential to mitigate climate change by greatly reducing CO2 emissions. However, the time span for this transition is unknown because most studies are limited to a few years. Especially, nonpermanent open water areas often created after rewetting, are highly productive. Here, we present 14 consecutive years of CH4 flux measurements following rewetting of a formerly long-term drained peatland in the Peene valley. Measurements were made at two rewetted sites (non-inundated vs. inundated) using manual chambers. During the study period, significant differences in measured CH4 emissions occurred. In general, these differences overlapped with stages of ecosystem transition from a cultivated grassland to a polytrophic lake dominated by emergent helophytes, but could also be additionally explained by other variables. This transition started with a rapid vegetation shift from dying cultivated grasses to open water floating and submerged hydrophytes and significantly increased CH4 emissions. Since 2008, helophytes have gradually spread from the shoreline into the open water area, especially in drier years. This process was periodically delayed by exceptional inundation and eventually resulted in the inundated site being covered by emergent helophytes. While the period between 2009 and 2015 showed exceptionally high CH4 emissions, these decreased significantly after cattail and other emergent helophytes became dominant at the inundated site. Therefore, CH4 emissions declined only after 10 years of transition following rewetting, potentially reaching a new steady state. Overall, this study highlights the importance of an integrative approach to understand the shallow lakes CH4 biogeochemistry, encompassing the entire area with its mosaic of different vegetation forms. This should be ideally done through a study design including proper measurement site allocation as well as long-term measurements.

Effects of El Niño drought on seedling dynamics in a seasonally dry tropical forest in Northern Thailand.

As El Niño is predicted to become stronger and more frequent in the future, it is crucial to understand how El Niño-induced droughts will affect tropical forests. Although many studies have focused on tropical rainforests, there is a paucity of studies on seasonally dry tropical forests (SDTFs), particularly in Asia, and few studies have focused on seedling dynamics, which are expected to be strongly affected by drought. Seedlings in SDTFs are generally more drought-tolerant than those in the rainforests, and the effects of El Niño-induced droughts may differ between SDTF and tropical rainforests. In this study, we explored the impact of El Niño-induced drought at an SDTF in northern Thailand by monitoring the seedling dynamics at monthly intervals for 7 years, including a period of strong El Niño. The effects were compared between two forest types in an SDTF: a deciduous dipterocarp forest (DDF), dominated by deciduous species, and an adjacent lower montane forest (LMF) with more evergreen species. El Niño-induced drought increased seedling mortality in both the forest types. The effect of drought was stronger in evergreen than in the deciduous species, resulting in higher mortality in the LMF during El Niño. However, El Niño increased seedling recruitment only in the DDF, mainly because of the massive recruitment of the deciduous oak, Quercus brandisiana (Fagaceae), which compensated for the mortality of seedlings in the DDF. As a result, El Niño increased seedling density in the DDF and decreased it in the LMF. This is the first long-term study to identify the differences in the impacts of El Niño on seedlings between the two forest types, and two leaf habits, evergreen and deciduous, in Southeast Asia. Our findings suggest that future climate change may alter the species composition and spatial distribution of seedlings in Asian SDTFs.

Real-world safety and effectiveness of recombinant porcine sequence factor VIII in acquired haemophilia A: A non-interventional, post-authorization safety study.

INTRODUCTION: Recombinant porcine factor VIII (rpFVIII, susoctocog alfa) is indicated for the treatment of bleeding episodes in adults with acquired haemophilia A (AHA). AIM: To provide long-term real-world safety and effectiveness data for rpFVIII in the management of AHA bleeding episodes. METHODS: US PASS (NCT02610127) was a multicentre, uncontrolled, open-label, post-marketing safety surveillance study conducted in adults with AHA. Data were collected retrospectively or prospectively for 180 days after rpFVIII treatment. The primary outcome was the incidence of treatment-related serious adverse events (SAEs). Secondary outcomes included haemostatic effectiveness of rpFVIII and rpFVIII utilization. RESULTS: Fifty-three patients were enrolled from December 2015 to June 2019 (prospective, n = 30; retrospective, n = 23). Six patients experienced seven treatment-related SAEs (incidence 12.0%). The most common treatment-related SAE was FVIII inhibition (inhibiting antibodies to rpFVIII; incidence 8.0%, 95% CI: 2.2-19.2). Five patients reported seven thromboembolic events; one was an SAE and possibly related to rpFVIII. Of bleeding events treated with rpFVIII, 80.3% (57/71) of bleeds resolved with rpFVIII. The median (range) dose of rpFVIII per infusion was 50 (10-300) units/kg, with a median (range) of 6.0 (1-140) infusions and a median (range) time from bleed onset to bleed resolution of 14.0 (2.0-132.7) days. CONCLUSION: In this real-world study of rpFVIII for AHA, no new safety signals were identified compared with previous clinical trial findings. Eighty percent of bleeds resolved with rpFVIII treatment.

Water availability and seasonality shape elemental stoichiometry across space and time.

The interaction of climate change and increasing anthropogenic water withdrawals is anticipated to alter surface water availability and the transport of carbon (C), nitrogen (N), and phosphorus (P) in river networks. But how changes to river flow will alter the balance, or stoichiometry, of these fluxes is unknown. The Lower Flint River Basin (LFRB) is part of an interstate watershed relied upon by several million people for diverse ecosystem services, including seasonal crop irrigation, municipal drinking water access, and public recreation. Recently, increased water demand compounded with intensified droughts have caused historically perennial streams in the LFRB to cease flowing, increasing ecosystem vulnerability. Our objectives were to quantify how riverine dissolved C:N:P varies spatially and seasonally and determine how monthly stoichiometric fluxes varied with overall water availability in a major tributary of LFRB. We used a long-term record (21-29 years) of solute water chemistry (dissolved organic carbon, nitrate/nitrite, ammonia, and soluble reactive phosphorus) paired with long-term stream discharge data across six sites within a single LFRB watershed. We found spatial and seasonal differences in soluble nutrient concentrations and stoichiometry attributable to groundwater connections, the presence of a major floodplain wetland, and flow conditions. Further, we showed that water availability, as indicated by the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), strongly predicted stoichiometry with generally lower C:N and C:P and higher N:P fluxes during periods of low water availability (PDSI < -4). These patterns suggest there may be long-term and significant changes to stream ecosystem function as water availability is being dramatically altered by human demand with consequential impacts on solute transport, in-stream processing, and stoichiometric ratios.

Raising offspring increases ageing: Differences in senescence among three populations of a long-lived seabird, the Atlantic puffin.

Actuarial senescence, the decline of survival with age, is well documented in the wild. Rates of senescence vary widely between taxa, to some extent also between sexes, with the fastest life histories showing the highest rates of senescence. Few studies have investigated differences in senescence among populations of the same species, although such variation is expected from population-level differences in environmental conditions, leading to differences in vital rates and thus life histories. We predict that, within species, populations differing in productivity (suggesting different paces of life) should experience different rates of senescence, but with little or no sexual difference in senescence within populations of monogamous, monomorphic species where the sexes share breeding duties. We compared rates of actuarial senescence among three contrasting populations of the Atlantic puffin Fratercula arctica. The dataset comprised 31 years (1990-2020) of parallel capture-mark-recapture data from three breeding colonies, Isle of May (North Sea), Røst (Norwegian Sea) and Hornøya (Barents Sea), showing contrasting productivities (i.e. annual breeding success) and population trends. We used time elapsed since first capture as a proxy for bird age, and productivity and the winter North Atlantic Oscillation Index (wNAO) as proxies for the environmental conditions experienced by the populations within and outside the breeding season, respectively. In accordance with our predictions, we found that senescence rates differed among the study populations, with no evidence for sexual differences. There was no evidence for an effect of wNAO, but the population with the lowest productivity, Røst, showed the lowest rate of senescence. As a consequence, the negative effect of senescence on the population growth rate (λ) was up to 3-5 times smaller on Røst (Δλ = -0.009) than on the two other colonies. Our findings suggest that environmentally induced differences in senescence rates among populations of a species should be accounted for when predicting effects of climate variation and change on species persistence. There is thus a need for more detailed information on how both actuarial and reproductive senescence influence vital rates of populations of the same species, calling for large-scale comparative studies.

Tracking 20 years of forest demographics in east Texas, USA, using national forest inventory data.

Forest resource reporting techniques primarily use the two most recent measurements for understanding forest change. Multiple remeasurements now exist within the US national forest inventory (NFI), providing an opportunity to examine long-term forest demographics. We leverage two decades of remeasurements to quantify live-dead wood demographics which can better inform estimates of resource changes in forest ecosystems. Our overall objective is to identify opportunities and gaps in tracking 20 years of forest demographics within the US NFI using east Texas as a pilot study region given its diversity of tree species, prevalence of managed conditions, frequency of disturbances, and relatively rapid change driven by a warm, humid climate. We examine growth and mortality rates, identify transitions to downed dead wood/litter and removal via harvest, and describe implications of these processes focusing on key species groups (i.e., loblolly pine, post oak, and water oak) and size classes (i.e., saplings, small and large trees). Growth and mortality rates fluctuated differently over time by species and stem sizes in response to large-scale disturbances, namely the 2011 drought in Texas. Tree-fall rates were highest in saplings and snag-fall rates trended higher in smaller trees. For removal rates, different stem sizes generally followed similar patterns within each species group. Forest demographics from the field-based US NFI are informative for identifying diffuse lagged mortality, species- and size-specific effects, and management effects. Moreover, researchers continually seek to employ ancillary data and develop new statistical methods to enhance understanding of forest resource changes from field-based inventories.

Jack-of-all-trades paradigm meets long-term data: Generalist herbivores are more widespread and locally less abundant.

Insect herbivores are relatively specialized. Why this is so is not clear. We examine assumptions about associations between local abundance and dietary specialization using an 18-year data set of caterpillar-plant interactions in Ecuador. Our data consist of caterpillar-plant associations and include standardized plot-based samples and general collections of caterpillars, allowing for diet breadth and abundance estimates across spatial scales for 1917 morphospecies. We find that more specialized caterpillars are locally more abundant than generalists, consistent with a key component of the 'jack of all trades, master of none' hypothesis. As the diet breadth of species increased, generalists were not as abundant in any one location, but they had broader occupancy across the landscape, which is a pattern that could reflect high plant beta diversity and is consistent with an alternative neutral hypothesis. Our finding that more specialized species can be both rare and common highlights the ecological complexity of specialization.

Sex-specific body mass ageing trajectories in adult Asian elephants.

In species with marked sexual dimorphism, the classic prediction is that the sex which undergoes stronger intrasexual competition ages earlier or quicker. However, more recently, alternative hypotheses have been put forward, showing that this association can be disrupted. Here, we utilize a unique, longitudinal data set of a semi-captive population of Asian elephants (Elephas maximus), a species with marked male-biased intrasexual competition, with males being larger and having shorter lifespans, and investigate whether males show earlier and/or faster body mass ageing than females. We found evidence of sex-specific body mass ageing trajectories: adult males gained weight up to the age of 48 years old, followed by a decrease in body mass until natural death. In contrast, adult females gained body mass with age until a body mass decline in the last year of life. Our study shows sex-specific ageing patterns, with an earlier onset of body mass declines in males than females, which is consistent with the predictions of the classical theory of ageing.

The shifting importance of abiotic and biotic factors across the life cycles of wild pollinators.

Organisms living in seasonal environments are exposed to different environmental conditions as they transition from one life stage to the next across their life cycle. How different life stages respond to these varying conditions, and the extent to which different life stages are linked, are fundamental components of the ecology of an organism. Nevertheless, the influence of abiotic and biotic factors on different parts of an organism's life cycle is often not accounted for, which limits our understanding of the ecological consequences of environmental change. We investigated the relative importance of climate conditions, food availability, and previous life-stage abundance in an assemblage of seven wild bumble bee species, asking: how do these three factors directly influence bee abundance at each life stage? To do so, we used a 7-year dataset where we monitored climate conditions, floral resources, and abundances of bees in each life stage across the active colony life cycle in a highly seasonal subalpine ecosystem in the Colorado Rocky Mountains, USA. Bee abundance at different life stages responded to abiotic and biotic conditions in a broadly consistent manner across the seven species: the survival and recruitment stage of the life cycle (overwintered queens) responded negatively to longer winters; the growth stage (workers) responded positively to floral resource availability; and the reproductive stage (males) was positively related to the abundance of the previous life stage (workers). Most species also exhibited some idiosyncratic responses. Our long-term examination of annual bumble bees reveals a general set of responses in the abundance of each life stage to climate conditions, floral resource availability, and previous life stage. Across species, these three factors each directly influenced a distinct life stage, illustrating how their relative importance can shift throughout the life cycle. The life-cycle approach that we have taken highlights that important details about demography can be overlooked without considering life-stage-specific responses. Ultimately, it is these life-stage-specific responses that shape population outcomes, not only for animal pollinators but also for many organisms living in seasonal environments.

Aboveground biomass increments over 26 years (1993-2019) in an old-growth cool-temperate forest in northern Japan.

Assessing long-term changes in the biomass of old-growth forests with consideration of climate effects is essential for understanding forest ecosystem functions under a changing climate. Long-term biomass changes are the result of accumulated short-term changes, which can be affected by endogenous processes such as gap filling in small-scale canopy openings. Here, we used 26 years (1993-2019) of repeated tree census data in an old-growth, cool-temperate, mixed deciduous forest that contains three topographic units (riparian, denuded slope, and terrace) in northern Japan to document decadal changes in aboveground biomass (AGB) and their processes in relation to endogenous processes and climatic factors. AGB increased steadily over the 26 years in all topographic units, but different tree species contributed to the increase among the topographic units. AGB gain within each topographic unit exceeded AGB loss via tree mortality in most of the measurement periods despite substantial temporal variation in AGB loss. At the local scale, variations in AGB gain were partially explained by compensating growth of trees around canopy gaps. Climate affected the local-scale AGB gain: the gain was larger in the measurement periods with higher mean air temperature during the current summer but smaller in those with higher mean air temperature during the previous autumn, synchronously in all topographic units. The influences of decadal summer and autumn warming on AGB growth appeared to be counteracting, suggesting that the observed steady AGB increase in KRRF is not fully explained by the warming. Future studies should consider global and regional environmental factors such as elevated CO2 concentrations and nitrogen deposition, and include cool-temperate forests with a broader temperature range to improve our understanding on biomass accumulation in this type of forests under climate change.

The International Phenological Garden network (1959 to 2021): its 131 gardens, cloned study species, data archiving, and future.

Collaborative networks that involve the compilation of observations from diverse sources can provide important data, but are difficult to maintain over long periods. The International Phenological Garden (IPG) network, begun in 1959 and still functioning 60 years later, has been no exception. Here we document its history, its monitored 23 species (initially all propagated by cloning), and the locations and years of data contribution of its 131 gardens, of which 63 from 19 countries contributed data in 2021. The decision to use clones, rather than multiple, locally adapted individuals, was based on the idea that this would "control" for genetic effects, and it affects the applicability of the data and duration of the network. We also describe the overlap among the IPG network, the Pan-European Phenology network (PEP725), and the phenological data offered by the German Weather Service. Sustainable data storage and accessibility, as well as the continued monitoring of all 23 species/clones, are under discussion at the moment, as is the fate of other phenological networks, despite a politically mandatory plant-based climate-change monitoring.

Lifetime reproductive benefits of cooperative polygamy vary for males and females in the acorn woodpecker (Melanerpes formicivorus).

Cooperative breeding strategies lead to short-term direct fitness losses when individuals forfeit or share reproduction. The direct fitness benefits of cooperative strategies are often delayed and difficult to quantify, requiring data on lifetime reproduction. Here, we use a longitudinal dataset to examine the lifetime reproductive success of cooperative polygamy in acorn woodpeckers (Melanerpes formicivorus), which nest as lone pairs or share reproduction with same-sex cobreeders. We found that males and females produced fewer young per successful nesting attempt when sharing reproduction. However, males nesting in duos and trios had longer reproductive lifespans, more lifetime nesting attempts and higher lifetime reproductive success than those breeding alone. For females, cobreeding in duos increased reproductive lifespan so the lifetime reproductive success of females nesting in duos was comparable to those nesting alone and higher than those nesting in trios. These results suggest that for male duos and trios, reproductive success alone may provide sufficient fitness benefits to explain the presence of cooperative polygamy, and the benefits of cobreeding as a duo in females are higher than previously assumed. Lifetime individual fitness data are crucial to reveal the full costs and benefits of cooperative polygamy.

Earlier winter/spring runoff and snowmelt during warmer winters lead to lower summer chlorophyll-a in north temperate lakes.

Winter conditions, such as ice cover and snow accumulation, are changing rapidly at northern latitudes and can have important implications for lake processes. For example, snowmelt in the watershed-a defining feature of lake hydrology because it delivers a large portion of annual nutrient inputs-is becoming earlier. Consequently, earlier and a shorter duration of snowmelt are expected to affect annual phytoplankton biomass. To test this hypothesis, we developed an index of runoff timing based on the date when 50% of cumulative runoff between January 1 and May 31 had occurred. The runoff index was computed using stream discharge for inflows, outflows, or for flows from nearby streams for 41 lakes in Europe and North America. The runoff index was then compared with summer chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) concentration (a proxy for phytoplankton biomass) across 5-53 years for each lake. Earlier runoff generally corresponded to lower summer Chl-a. Furthermore, years with earlier runoff also had lower winter/spring runoff magnitude, more protracted runoff, and earlier ice-out. We examined several lake characteristics that may regulate the strength of the relationship between runoff timing and summer Chl-a concentrations; however, our tested covariates had little effect on the relationship. Date of ice-out was not clearly related to summer Chl-a concentrations. Our results indicate that ongoing changes in winter conditions may have important consequences for summer phytoplankton biomass and production.

Long-term efficacy and safety of dapagliflozin in patients with inadequately controlled type 1 diabetes: pooled 52-week outcomes from the DEPICT-1 and -2 studies.

AIM: To evaluate the efficacy and safety of adjunct dapagliflozin therapy in patients with type 1 diabetes (T1D). MATERIALS AND METHODS: DEPICT-1 and -2 were randomized, double-blind, parallel-group, 24-week studies, with 28-week extension periods. Adults with T1D and HbA1c 7.5%-10.5% were randomized (1:1:1) to receive dapagliflozin 5 mg, 10 mg or placebo. The short- and long-term efficacy and safety of dapagliflozin were examined in an exploratory pooled analysis of both studies. RESULTS: Efficacy analyses included 530, 529 and 532 and safety analysis included 548, 566 and 532 patients in the dapagliflozin 5 mg, 10 mg and placebo groups, respectively. Baseline characteristics were similar between treatment groups. At week 24, reductions were seen with dapagliflozin 5 and 10 mg compared with placebo in HbA1c (-0.40%, -0.43% vs. 0.00%) and body weight (-2.45, -2.91 vs. 0.11 kg). HbA1c and body weight reductions versus placebo were also seen after 52 weeks of treatment. There was no imbalance in occurrence of severe hypoglycaemic events between groups. The proportion of patients experiencing definite diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA) was higher with dapagliflozin 5 mg (4.0%) and 10 mg (3.5%) compared with placebo (1.1%) over 52 weeks; most events were of mild or moderate severity, and all resolved with treatment. CONCLUSIONS: Over 52 weeks, dapagliflozin provided glycaemic and weight benefits, with no increased frequency of severe hypoglycaemia compared with placebo. More DKA events were reported with dapagliflozin than placebo, highlighting the importance of appropriate patient selection, education and risk-mitigation strategies.

Ecological forecasts reveal limitations of common model selection methods: predicting changes in beaver colony densities.

Over the past two decades, there have been numerous calls to make ecology a more predictive science through direct empirical assessments of ecological models and predictions. While the widespread use of model selection using information criteria has pushed ecology toward placing a higher emphasis on prediction, few attempts have been made to validate the ability of information criteria to correctly identify the most parsimonious model with the greatest predictive accuracy. Here, we used an ecological forecasting framework to test the ability of information criteria to accurately predict the relative contribution of density dependence and density-independent factors (forage availability, harvest, weather, wolf [Canis lupus] density) on inter-annual fluctuations in beaver (Castor canadensis) colony densities. We modeled changes in colony densities using a discrete-time Gompertz model, and assessed the performance of four models using information criteria values: density-independent models with (1) and without (2) environmental covariates; and density-dependent models with (3) and without (4) environmental covariates. We then evaluated the forecasting accuracy of each model by withholding the final one-third of observations from each population and compared observed vs. predicted densities. Information criteria and our forecasting accuracy metrics both provided strong evidence of compensatory density dependence in the annual dynamics of beaver colony densities. However, despite strong within-sample performance by the most complex model (density-dependent with covariates) as determined using information criteria, hindcasts of colony densities revealed that the much simpler density-dependent model without covariates performed nearly as well predicting out-of-sample colony densities. The hindcast results indicated that the complex model over-fit our data, suggesting that parameters identified by information criteria as important predictor variables are only marginally valuable for predicting landscape-scale beaver colony dynamics. Our study demonstrates the importance of evaluating ecological models and predictions with long-term data and revealed how a known limitation of information criteria (over-fitting of complex models) can affect our interpretation of ecological dynamics. While incorporating knowledge of the factors that influence animal population dynamics can improve population forecasts, we suggest that comparing forecast performance metrics can likewise improve our knowledge of the factors driving population dynamics.