JASPER: Fast, powerful, multitrait association testing in structured samples gives insight on pleiotropy in gene expression.

Joint association analysis of multiple traits with multiple genetic variants can provide insight into genetic architecture and pleiotropy, improve trait prediction, and increase power for detecting association. Furthermore, some traits are naturally high-dimensional, e.g., images, networks, or longitudinally measured traits. Assessing significance for multitrait genetic association can be challenging, especially when the sample has population sub-structure and/or related individuals. Failure to adequately adjust for sample structure can lead to power loss and inflated type 1 error, and commonly used methods for assessing significance can work poorly with a large number of traits or be computationally slow. We developed JASPER, a fast, powerful, robust method for assessing significance of multitrait association with a set of genetic variants, in samples that have population sub-structure, admixture, and/or relatedness. In simulations, JASPER has higher power, better type 1 error control, and faster computation than existing methods, with the power and speed advantage of JASPER increasing with the number of traits. JASPER is potentially applicable to a wide range of association testing applications, including for multiple disease traits, expression traits, image-derived traits, and microbiome abundances. It allows for covariates, ascertainment, and rare variants and is robust to phenotype model misspecification. We apply JASPER to analyze gene expression in the Framingham Heart Study, where, compared to alternative approaches, JASPER finds more significant associations, including several that indicate pleiotropic effects, most of which replicate previous results, while others have not previously been reported. Our results demonstrate the promise of JASPER for powerful multitrait analysis in structured samples.

Scalable mixed model methods for set-based association studies on large-scale categorical data analysis and its application to exome-sequencing data in UK Biobank.

The ongoing release of large-scale sequencing data in the UK Biobank allows for the identification of associations between rare variants and complex traits. SAIGE-GENE+ is a valid approach to conducting set-based association tests for quantitative and binary traits. However, for ordinal categorical phenotypes, applying SAIGE-GENE+ with treating the trait as quantitative or binarizing the trait can cause inflated type I error rates or power loss. In this study, we propose a scalable and accurate method for rare-variant association tests, POLMM-GENE, in which we used a proportional odds logistic mixed model to characterize ordinal categorical phenotypes while adjusting for sample relatedness. POLMM-GENE fully utilizes the categorical nature of phenotypes and thus can well control type I error rates while remaining powerful. In the analyses of UK Biobank 450k whole-exome-sequencing data for five ordinal categorical traits, POLMM-GENE identified 54 gene-phenotype associations.

Gene-based association tests in family samples using GWAS summary statistics.

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have led to rapid growth in detecting genetic variants associated with various phenotypes. Owing to a great number of publicly accessible GWAS summary statistics, and the difficulty in obtaining individual-level genotype data, many existing gene-based association tests have been adapted to require only GWAS summary statistics rather than individual-level data. However, these association tests are restricted to unrelated individuals and thus do not apply to family samples directly. Moreover, due to its flexibility and effectiveness, the linear mixed model has been increasingly utilized in GWAS to handle correlated data, such as family samples. However, it remains unknown how to perform gene-based association tests in family samples using the GWAS summary statistics estimated from the linear mixed model. In this study, we show that, when family size is negligible compared to the total sample size, the diagonal block structure of the kinship matrix makes it possible to approximate the correlation matrix of marginal Z scores by linkage disequilibrium matrix. Based on this result, current methods utilizing summary statistics for unrelated individuals can be directly applied to family data without any modifications. Our simulation results demonstrate that this proposed strategy controls the type 1 error rate well in various situations. Finally, we exemplify the usefulness of the proposed approach with a dental caries GWAS data set.

A multi-dimensional integrative scoring framework for predicting functional variants in the human genome.

Attempts to identify and prioritize functional DNA elements in coding and non-coding regions, particularly through use of in silico functional annotation data, continue to increase in popularity. However, specific functional roles can vary widely from one variant to another, making it challenging to summarize different aspects of variant function with a one-dimensional rating. Here we propose multi-dimensional annotation-class integrative estimation (MACIE), an unsupervised multivariate mixed-model framework capable of integrating annotations of diverse origin to assess multi-dimensional functional roles for both coding and non-coding variants. Unlike existing one-dimensional scoring methods, MACIE views variant functionality as a composite attribute encompassing multiple characteristics and estimates the joint posterior functional probabilities of each genomic position. This estimate offers more comprehensive and interpretable information in the presence of multiple aspects of functionality. Applied to a variety of independent coding and non-coding datasets, MACIE demonstrates powerful and robust performance in discriminating between functional and non-functional variants. We also show an application of MACIE to fine-mapping and heritability enrichment analysis by using the lipids GWAS summary statistics data from the European Network for Genetic and Genomic Epidemiology Consortium.

Shared parameter modeling of longitudinal data allowing for possibly informative visiting process and terminal event.

Joint modeling of longitudinal and time-to-event data, particularly through shared parameter models (SPMs), is a common approach for handling longitudinal marker data with an informative terminal event. A critical but often neglected assumption in this context is that the visiting/observation process is noninformative, depending solely on past marker values and visit times. When this assumption fails, the visiting process becomes informative, resulting potentially to biased SPM estimates. Existing methods generally rely on a conditional independence assumption, positing that the marker model, visiting process, and time-to-event model are independent given shared or correlated random effects. Moreover, they are typically built on an intensity-based visiting process using calendar time. This study introduces a unified approach for jointly modeling a normally distributed marker, the visiting process, and time-to-event data in the form of competing risks. Our model conditions on the history of observed marker values, prior visit times, the marker's random effects, and possibly a frailty term independent of the random effects. While our approach aligns with the shared-parameter framework, it does not presume conditional independence between the processes. Additionally, the visiting process can be defined on either a gap time scale, via proportional hazard models, or a calendar time scale, via proportional intensity models. Through extensive simulation studies, we assess the performance of our proposed methodology. We demonstrate that disregarding an informative visiting process can yield significantly biased marker estimates. However, misspecification of the visiting process can also lead to biased estimates. The gap time formulation exhibits greater robustness compared to the intensity-based model when the visiting process is misspecified. In general, enriching the visiting process with prior visit history enhances performance. We further apply our methodology to real longitudinal data from HIV, where visit frequency varies substantially among individuals.

Influence of oral microbiome on longitudinal patterns of oral mucositis severity in patients with squamous cell carcinoma of the head and neck.

BACKGROUND: This study investigated the influence of oral microbial features on the trajectory of oral mucositis (OM) in patients with squamous cell carcinoma of the head and neck. METHODS: OM severity was assessed and buccal swabs were collected at baseline, at the initiation of cancer treatment, weekly during cancer treatment, at the termination of cancer treatment, and after cancer treatment termination. The oral microbiome was characterized via the 16S ribosomal RNA V4 region with the Illumina platform. Latent class mixed-model analysis was used to group individuals with similar trajectories of OM severity. Locally estimated scatterplot smoothing was used to fit an average trend within each group and to assess the association between the longitudinal OM scores and longitudinal microbial abundances. RESULTS: Four latent groups (LGs) with differing patterns of OM severity were identified for 142 subjects. LG1 has an early onset of high OM scores. LGs 2 and 3 begin with relatively low OM scores until the eighth and 11th week, respectively. LG4 has generally flat OM scores. These LGs did not vary by treatment or clinical or demographic variables. Correlation analysis showed that the abundances of Bacteroidota, Proteobacteria, Bacteroidia, Gammaproteobacteria, Enterobacterales, Bacteroidales, Aerococcaceae, Prevotellaceae, Abiotrophia, and Prevotella_7 were positively correlated with OM severity across the four LGs. Negative correlation was observed with OM severity for a few microbial features: Abiotrophia and Aerococcaceae for LGs 2 and 3; Gammaproteobacteria and Proteobacteria for LGs 2, 3, and 4; and Enterobacterales for LGs 2 and 4. CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest the potential to personalize treatment for OM. PLAIN LANGUAGE SUMMARY: Oral mucositis (OM) is a common and debilitating after effect for patients treated for squamous cell carcinoma of the head and neck. Trends in the abundance of specific microbial features may be associated with patterns of OM severity over time. Our findings suggest the potential to personalize treatment plans for OM via tailored microbiome interventions.

Efficient mixed model approach for large-scale genome-wide association studies of ordinal categorical phenotypes.

In genome-wide association studies, ordinal categorical phenotypes are widely used to measure human behaviors, satisfaction, and preferences. However, because of the lack of analysis tools, methods designed for binary or quantitative traits are commonly used inappropriately to analyze categorical phenotypes. To accurately model the dependence of an ordinal categorical phenotype on covariates, we propose an efficient mixed model association test, proportional odds logistic mixed model (POLMM). POLMM is computationally efficient to analyze large datasets with hundreds of thousands of samples, can control type I error rates at a stringent significance level regardless of the phenotypic distribution, and is more powerful than alternative methods. In contrast, the standard linear mixed model approaches cannot control type I error rates for rare variants when the phenotypic distribution is unbalanced, although they performed well when testing common variants. We applied POLMM to 258 ordinal categorical phenotypes on array genotypes and imputed samples from 408,961 individuals in UK Biobank. In total, we identified 5,885 genome-wide significant variants, of which, 424 variants (7.2%) are rare variants with MAF < 0.01.

Optimizing genomic control in mixed model associations with binary diseases.

Complex computation and approximate solution hinder the application of generalized linear mixed models (GLMM) into genome-wide association studies. We extended GRAMMAR to handle binary diseases by considering genomic breeding values (GBVs) estimated in advance as a known predictor in genomic logit regression, and then reduced polygenic effects by regulating downward genomic heritability to control false negative errors produced in the association tests. Using simulations and case analyses, we showed in optimizing GRAMMAR, polygenic effects and genomic controls could be evaluated using the fewer sampling markers, which extremely simplified GLMM-based association analysis in large-scale data. Further, joint association analysis for quantitative trait nucleotide (QTN) candidates chosen by multiple testing offered significant improved statistical power to detect QTNs over existing methods.

Simultaneous test and estimation of total genetic effect in eQTL integrative analysis through mixed models.

Integration of expression quantitative trait loci (eQTL) into genome-wide association studies (GWASs) is a promising manner to reveal functional roles of associated single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in complex phenotypes and has become an active research field in post-GWAS era. However, how to efficiently incorporate eQTL mapping study into GWAS for prioritization of causal genes remains elusive. We herein proposed a novel method termed as Mixed transcriptome-wide association studies (TWAS) and mediated Variance estimation (MTV) by modeling the effects of cis-SNPs of a gene as a function of eQTL. MTV formulates the integrative method and TWAS within a unified framework via mixed models and therefore includes many prior methods/tests as special cases. We further justified MTV from another two statistical perspectives of mediation analysis and two-stage Mendelian randomization. Relative to existing methods, MTV is superior for pronounced features including the processing of direct effects of cis-SNPs on phenotypes, the powerful likelihood ratio test for assessment of joint effects of cis-SNPs and genetically regulated gene expression (GReX), two useful quantities to measure relative genetic contributions of GReX and cis-SNPs to phenotypic variance, and the computationally efferent parameter expansion expectation maximum algorithm. With extensive simulations, we identified that MTV correctly controlled the type I error in joint evaluation of the total genetic effect and proved more powerful to discover true association signals across various scenarios compared to existing methods. We finally applied MTV to 41 complex traits/diseases available from three GWASs and discovered many new associated genes that had otherwise been missed by existing methods. We also revealed that a small but substantial fraction of phenotypic variation was mediated by GReX. Overall, MTV constructs a robust and realistic modeling foundation for integrative omics analysis and has the advantage of offering more attractive biological interpretations of GWAS results.

A compressed variance component mixed model framework for detecting small and linked QTL-by-environment interactions.

Detecting small and linked quantitative trait loci (QTLs) and QTL-by-environment interactions (QEIs) for complex traits is a difficult issue in immortalized F2 and F2:3 design, especially in the era of global climate change and environmental plasticity research. Here we proposed a compressed variance component mixed model. In this model, a parametric vector of QTL genotype and environment combination effects replaced QTL effects, environmental effects and their interaction effects, whereas the combination effect polygenic background replaced the QTL and QEI polygenic backgrounds. Thus, the number of variance components in the mixed model was greatly reduced. The model was incorporated into our genome-wide composite interval mapping (GCIM) to propose GCIM-QEI-random and GCIM-QEI-fixed, respectively, under random and fixed models of genetic effects. First, potentially associated QTLs and QEIs were selected from genome-wide scanning. Then, significant QTLs and QEIs were identified using empirical Bayes and likelihood ratio test. Finally, known and candidate genes around these significant loci were mined. The new methods were validated by a series of simulation studies and real data analyses. Compared with ICIM, GCIM-QEI-random had 29.77 ± 18.20% and 24.33 ± 10.15% higher average power, respectively, in 0.5-3.0% QTL and QEI detection, 43.44 ± 9.53% and 51.47 ± 15.70% higher average power, respectively, in linked QTL and QEI detection, and identified 30 more known genes for four rice yield traits, because GCIM-QEI-random identified more small genes/loci, being 2.69 ± 2.37% for additional genes. GCIM-QEI-random was slightly better than GCIM-QEI-fixed. In addition, the new methods may be extended into backcross and genome-wide association studies. This study provides effective methods for detecting small-effect and linked QTLs and QEIs.

Incorporating genetic similarity of auxiliary samples into eGene identification under the transfer learning framework.

BACKGROUND: The term eGene has been applied to define a gene whose expression level is affected by at least one independent expression quantitative trait locus (eQTL). It is both theoretically and empirically important to identify eQTLs and eGenes in genomic studies. However, standard eGene detection methods generally focus on individual cis-variants and cannot efficiently leverage useful knowledge acquired from auxiliary samples into target studies. METHODS: We propose a multilocus-based eGene identification method called TLegene by integrating shared genetic similarity information available from auxiliary studies under the statistical framework of transfer learning. We apply TLegene to eGene identification in ten TCGA cancers which have an explicit relevant tissue in the GTEx project, and learn genetic effect of variant in TCGA from GTEx. We also adopt TLegene to the Geuvadis project to evaluate its usefulness in non-cancer studies. RESULTS: We observed substantial genetic effect correlation of cis-variants between TCGA and GTEx for a larger number of genes. Furthermore, consistent with the results of our simulations, we found that TLegene was more powerful than existing methods and thus identified 169 distinct candidate eGenes, which was much larger than the approach that did not consider knowledge transfer across target and auxiliary studies. Previous studies and functional enrichment analyses provided empirical evidence supporting the associations of discovered eGenes, and it also showed evidence of allelic heterogeneity of gene expression. Furthermore, TLegene identified more eGenes in Geuvadis and revealed that these eGenes were mainly enriched in cells EBV transformed lymphocytes tissue. CONCLUSION: Overall, TLegene represents a flexible and powerful statistical method for eGene identification through transfer learning of genetic similarity shared across auxiliary and target studies.

Effects of Ambient Air Pollution on Brain Cortical Thickness and Subcortical Volume: A Longitudinal Neuroimaging Study.

INTRODUCTION: Several cross-sectional studies have shown that long-term exposures to air pollutants are associated with smaller brain cortical volume or thickness. Here, we investigated longitudinal associations of long-term air pollution exposures with cortical thickness and subcortical volume. METHODS: In this longitudinal study, we included a prospective cohort of 361 adults residing in four cities in the Republic of Korea. Long-term concentrations of particulate matter with aerodynamic diameters of ≤10 µm (PM10) and ≤2.5 µm (PM2.5) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) at residential addresses were estimated. Neuroimaging markers (cortical thickness and subcortical volume) were obtained from brain magnetic resonance images at baseline (August 2014 to March 2017) and at the 3-year follow-up (until September 2020). Linear mixed-effects models were used, adjusting for covariates. RESULTS: A 10-µg/m3 increase in PM10 was associated with reduced whole-brain mean (ß = -0.45, standard error [SE] = 0.10; p < 0.001), frontal (ß = -0.53, SE = 0.11; p < 0.001) and temporal thicknesses (ß = -0.37, SE = 0.12; p = 0.002). A 10-ppb increase in NO2 was associated with a decline in the whole-brain mean cortical thickness (ß = -0.23, SE = 0.05; p < 0.001), frontal (ß = -0.25, SE = 0.05; p < 0.001), parietal (ß = -0.12, SE = 0.05; p = 0.025), and temporal thicknesses (ß = -0.19, SE = 0.06; p = 0.001). Subcortical structures associated with air pollutants included the thalamus. CONCLUSIONS: Long-term exposures to PM10 and NO2 may lead to cortical thinning in adults.

Haemoglobin trajectories in chronic kidney disease and risk of major adverse cardiovascular events.

BACKGROUND: The trajectories of haemoglobin in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) have been poorly described. In such patients, we aimed to identify typical haemoglobin trajectory profiles and estimate their risks of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE). METHODS: We used 5-year longitudinal data from the CKD-REIN cohort patients with moderate to severe CKD enrolled from 40 nationally representative nephrology clinics in France. A joint latent class model was used to estimate, in different classes of haemoglobin trajectory, the competing risks of (i) MACE + defined as the first event among cardiovascular death, non-fatal myocardial infarction, stroke or hospitalization for acute heart failure, (ii) initiation of kidney replacement therapy (KRT) and (iii) non-cardiovascular death. RESULTS: During the follow-up, we gathered 33 874 haemoglobin measurements from 3011 subjects (median, 10 per patient). We identified five distinct haemoglobin trajectory profiles. The predominant profile (n = 1885, 62.6%) showed an overall stable trajectory and low risks of events. The four other profiles had nonlinear declining trajectories: early strong decline (n = 257, 8.5%), late strong decline (n = 75, 2.5%), early moderate decline (n = 356, 11.8%) and late moderate decline (n = 438, 14.6%). The four profiles had different risks of MACE, while the risks of KRT and non-cardiovascular death consistently increased from the haemoglobin decline. CONCLUSION: In this study, we observed that two-thirds of patients had a stable haemoglobin trajectory and low risks of adverse events. The other third had a nonlinear trajectory declining at different rates, with increased risks of events. Better attention should be paid to dynamic changes of haemoglobin in CKD.

Effects of high-intensity interval training on sleep disturbances associated with posttraumatic stress disorder.

Sleep disturbances are common in individuals with posttraumatic stress disorder. Exercise interventions are a promising approach in the treatment of sleep disorders, but little is known about the efficacy of exercise interventions for sleep disturbances associated with posttraumatic stress disorder. A total of 40 individuals with posttraumatic stress disorder were randomized to six sessions of either high-intensity interval training or low-to-moderate-intensity training, administered within 12 days. Sleep quality was assessed over 24 days from baseline to post with the Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index, a sleep log, and a waist-worn actigraphy. Analyses revealed that, regardless of group allocation, Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index score improved significantly by 2.28 points for high-intensity interval training and 1.70 points for low-to-moderate-intensity training (d = 0.56 for high-intensity interval training; 0.49 for low-to-moderate-intensity training) over time, while there were no significant changes in any sleep log or actigraphy measure. Analysis of a subsample of those affected by clinically significant sleep disturbances (n = 24) revealed a significant time effect with no difference between exercise interventions: Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index improved significantly by 2.65 points for high-intensity interval training and 2.89 points for low-to-moderate-intensity training (d = 0.53 for high-intensity interval training; 0.88 for low-to-moderate-intensity training), and actigraphy measure of wake after sleep onset was reduced significantly by 14.39 minutes for high-intensity interval training and 6.96 minutes for low-to-moderate-intensity training (d = 0.47 for high-intensity interval training; 0.11 for low-to-moderate-intensity training) from baseline to post. In our pilot study, we found an improvement in sleep quality from pre- to post-assessment. There were no significant differences between exercise groups. Further studies are needed to investigate whether the found time effects reflect the exercise intervention or unrelated factors.

Assessment of household preferences for net textile type (polyester versus polyethylene) for decision-making of the National Malaria Control Programme in Burkina Faso: methods for a quasi-experimental study.

BACKGROUND: A quasi-experimental comparative trial will be designed in Burkina Faso. The study will compare the use and preferences for two groups types of insecticide-treated nets textile: polyester-based and polyethylene-based, according to their use and preferences in selected health districts. These health districts will be selected in three eco-climate zones (Sahelian, dry savannah and wet savannah) in the country. These findings will inform decisions on future net procurements for national malaria control programme in 2025. METHODS: Quantitative surveys and qualitative data collection will be carried out to gather information on the type of net textile most commonly used and preferred by the community. They will be performed between the end of the dry season and the early rainy season. The quantitative surveys involved household interviews with households and individuals' questionnaires, while the qualitative data collection involved in-depth individual interviews and focus group discussions to explore and clarify some key evaluation criteria. A total of 9450 insecticide-treated nets were surveyed for quantitative survey purposes. For the qualitative study, 48 in-depth individual interviews and 12 focus group discussions were carried out. A mixed model approach combining the results from quantitative surveys and qualitative studies will be used for decision-making on the type of insecticide-treated net preference. CONCLUSION: This methodological approach will be used by the National Malaria Control Programme to conduct this study on determinants of net use in Burkina Faso in order to provide robust evidence across diverse settings. This mixed-methods approach for data collection and analysis could be used in other countries to provide evidence that would help to increase the uptake of insecticide-treated nets, the main vector control tool in Africa.

Sensitivity analysis for publication bias in meta-analysis of sparse data based on exact likelihood.

Meta-analysis is a powerful tool to synthesize findings from multiple studies. The normal-normal random-effects model is widely used to account for between-study heterogeneity. However, meta-analyses of sparse data, which may arise when the event rate is low for binary or count outcomes, pose a challenge to the normal-normal random-effects model in the accuracy and stability in inference since the normal approximation in the within-study model may not be good. To reduce bias arising from data sparsity, the generalized linear mixed model can be used by replacing the approximate normal within-study model with an exact model. Publication bias is one of the most serious threats in meta-analysis. Several quantitative sensitivity analysis methods for evaluating the potential impacts of selective publication are available for the normal-normal random-effects model. We propose a sensitivity analysis method by extending the likelihood-based sensitivity analysis with the $t$-statistic selection function of Copas to several generalized linear mixed-effects models. Through applications of our proposed method to several real-world meta-analyses and simulation studies, the proposed method was proven to outperform the likelihood-based sensitivity analysis based on the normal-normal model. The proposed method would give useful guidance to address publication bias in the meta-analysis of sparse data.

A Bayesian zero-inflated beta-binomial model for longitudinal data with group-specific changepoints.

Timeline followback (TLFB) is often used in addiction research to monitor recent substance use, such as the number of abstinent days in the past week. TLFB data usually take the form of binomial counts that exhibit overdispersion and zero inflation. Motivated by a 12-week randomized trial evaluating the efficacy of varenicline tartrate for smoking cessation among adolescents, we propose a Bayesian zero-inflated beta-binomial model for the analysis of longitudinal, bounded TLFB data. The model comprises a mixture of a point mass that accounts for zero inflation and a beta-binomial distribution for the number of days abstinent in the past week. Because treatment effects appear to level off during the study, we introduce random changepoints for each study group to reflect group-specific changes in treatment efficacy over time. The model also includes fixed and random effects that capture group- and subject-level slopes before and after the changepoints. Using the model, we can accurately estimate the mean trend for each study group, test whether the groups experience changepoints simultaneously, and identify critical windows of treatment efficacy. For posterior computation, we propose an efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm that relies on easily sampled Gibbs and Metropolis-Hastings steps. Our application shows that the varenicline group has a short-term positive effect on abstinence that tapers off after week 9.

Ecological and anthropogenic drivers of waterfowl productivity are synchronous across species, space, and time.

Knowledge of interspecific and spatiotemporal variation in demography-environment relationships is key for understanding the population dynamics of sympatric species and developing multispecies conservation strategies. We used hierarchical random-effects models to examine interspecific and spatial variation in annual productivity in six migratory ducks (i.e., American wigeon [Mareca americana], blue-winged teal [Spatula discors], gadwall [Mareca strepera], green-winged teal [Anas crecca], mallard [Anas platyrhynchos] and northern pintail [Anas acuta]) across six distinct ecostrata in the Prairie Pothole Region of North America. We tested whether breeding habitat conditions (seasonal pond counts, agricultural intensification, and grassland acreage) or cross-seasonal effects (indexed by flooded rice acreage in primary wintering areas) better explained variation in the proportion of juveniles captured during late summer banding. The proportion of juveniles (i.e., productivity) was highly variable within species and ecostrata throughout 1961-2019 and generally declined through time in blue-winged teal, gadwall, mallard, pintail, and wigeon, but there was no support for a trend in green-winged teal. Productivity in Canadian ecostrata declined with increasing agricultural intensification and increased with increasing pond counts. We also found a strong cross-seasonal effect, whereby more flooded rice hectares during winter resulted in higher subsequent productivity. Our results suggest highly consistent environmental and anthropogenic effects on waterfowl productivity across species and space. Our study advances our understanding of current year and cross-seasonal effects on duck productivity across a suite of species and at finer spatial scales, which could help managers better target working-lands conservation programs on both breeding and wintering areas. We encourage other researchers to evaluate environmental drivers of population dynamics among species in a single modeling framework for a deeper understanding of whether conservation plans should be generalized or customized given limited financial resources.

Modeling heart rate of individual and team manual handling with one hand using generalized additive mixed models.

OBJECTIVES: Despite the fact that team manual handling is common in different working environments, the previous studies in this regard, particularly those with a physiological approach are quite limited. The present study is an attempt to model the heart rate (HR) of individual and team manual handling with one hand. METHODS: Twenty-five young men (aged 21.24±1.42 year) volunteered for this study. The experiments included individual and two-person handling of the load with three different weights with and without height difference. The participants' HR was registered at the end of the route by a chest-strap pulse monitor and a polar watch according to the manufacturer's recommendation. A multivariate Generalized Additive Mixed Model (MGAMM) was used for modeling heart rate based on explanatory variables of workload, carry method, HRrest, body weight, height, knee height, shoulder height, elbow height, and hand height. The significance level of the tests was considered as <0.05. RESULTS: Based on the MGAMM, the average HR (bpm) of participants increased as the workload increased (P<0.001). Handling the load with a taller person increased the HR compared to shorter partner (P<0.001). Moreover, the nonlinear associations of the resting HR (P<0.001), body weight (P<0.001), height (P<0.001), and the height of elbow, hand and knee (P<0.001) were statistically significant. The adjusted R2 of the model was 0.89 indicating that about 90 percent of the variations observed in HR could be explained by the variables in the model. This was greater than the model considering only linear effects (R2 =0.60). CONCLUSION: The model obtained in this study can predict the heart rate of individual and team one-handed handling with high validity. The MGAMM can be used in modeling heart rate in manual handling.

A Statistical Analysis of the Impact of Gun Ownership on Mass Shootings in the USA Between 2013 and 2022.

Mass shootings (incidents with four or more people shot in a single event, not including the shooter) are becoming more frequent in the United States, posing a significant threat to public health and safety in the country. In the current study, we intended to analyze the impact of state-level prevalence of gun ownership on mass shootings-both the frequency and severity of these events. We applied the negative binomial generalized linear mixed model to investigate the association between gun ownership rate, as measured by a proxy (i.e., the proportion of suicides committed with firearms to total suicides), and population-adjusted rates of mass shooting incidents and fatalities at the state level from 2013 to 2022. Gun ownership was found to be significantly associated with the rate of mass shooting fatalities. Specifically, our model indicated that for every 1-SD increase-that is, for every 12.5% increase-in gun ownership, the rate of mass shooting fatalities increased by 34% (p value < 0.001). However, no significant association was found between gun ownership and rate of mass shooting incidents. These findings suggest that restricting gun ownership (and therefore reducing availability to guns) may not decrease the number of mass shooting events, but it may save lives when these events occur.