Climate Justice Implications of Natech Disasters: Excess Contaminant Releases during Hurricanes on the Texas Gulf Coast.

Extreme weather events are becoming more severe due to climate change, increasing the risk of contaminant releases from hazardous sites disproportionately located in low-income communities of color. We evaluated contaminant releases during Hurricanes Rita, Ike, and Harvey in Texas and used regression models to estimate associations between neighborhood racial/ethnic composition and residential proximity to hurricane-related contaminant releases. Two-to-three times as many excess releases were reported during hurricanes compared to business-as-usual periods. Petrochemical manufacturing and refineries were responsible for most air emissions events. Multivariable models revealed sociodemographic disparities in likelihood of releases; compared to neighborhoods near regulated facilities without a release, a one-percent increase in Hispanic residents was associated with a 5 and 10% increase in the likelihood of an air emissions event downwind and within 2 km during Hurricanes Rita and Ike (odds ratio and 95% credible interval= 1.05 [1.00, 1.13], combined model) and Harvey (1.10 [1.00, 1.23]), respectively. Higher percentages of renters (1.07 [1.03, 1.11], combined Rita and Ike model) and rates of poverty (1.06 [1.01, 1.12], Harvey model) were associated with a higher likelihood of a release to land or water, while the percentage of Black residents (0.94 [0.89, 1.00], Harvey model) was associated with a slightly lower likelihood. Population density was consistently associated with a decreased likelihood of a contaminant release to air, land, or water. Our findings highlight social inequalities in the risks posed by natural-technological disasters that disproportionately impact Hispanic, renter, low-income, and rural populations.

Quantitative assessment of enterprise environmental risk mitigation in the context of Na-tech disasters.

As an important causative factor of environmental accidents, natural disasters have recently received much attention for environmental risk assessment. Typhoons are one of the most frequent natural disasters in the northern Pacific Ocean and South China Sea and cause enormous damage to agriculture, daily livelihood, and industry. In this study, an environmental risk assessment for industrial enterprises is conducted when considering typhoon disasters. First, a Na-tech (natural hazard triggering technological disasters) environmental risk assessment index system with the aid of an analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy evaluation model (ERA-FAM) is developed to explore the major determinants related to risk level. The impact of typhoon disasters on environmental risk from chemical enterprises is discussed using a comparative analysis of risk levels with and without typhoon disaster scenarios. A chemical plant located in Zhejiang, China, is selected as a case study using this methodology. Three hypothetical scenarios are assumed, based on actual situations, to explore the impact of various factors on environmental risk. The results demonstrate that production factors and surrounding environmental conditions are the most sensitive factors for typhoon disasters, while emergency preparation is most important for reducing environmental risk. The influence of typhoons on environmental risk values is much higher for enterprises with imperfect management and vulnerable water risk receptors. Incorporating disaster management into environmental risk management will aid in developing strategies and policies for environmental risk mitigation and risk reduction practices.

Quantitative assessment of wildfire risk in oil facilities.

Despite frequent occurrence of wildfires around the world, the role of wildfires has rarely been taken into account in risk assessment of process plants in wildlands, especially that large inventory of flammable petroleum products in contact with the heat of wildfire can lead to severe domino effects. We have developed a dynamic risk assessment framework by integrating available models of fire spread and domino effect analysis with online maps of wildfire characteristics such as ignition probability and heat intensity to investigate the impact of wildfires on oil facilities. The framework is modular, so one can readily enhance its accuracy by replacing the current techniques with more sophisticated ones. The application of the methodology is demonstrated on an oil terminal.

NaTech triggered by lightning: Novel insights from past events in the process industry.

Lightning strikes, a prominent meteorological event, pose a significant risk of triggering technological disruptions within the process industry. To better understand this phenomenon, an analysis focused on past lightning-triggered events was carried out, examining open-source industrial-accident databases to compile a new NaTech-driven dataset of 689 records. First, an overall quantitative analysis revealed that over 80 % of these events involved incidents or loss of containment. Notably, 83.3 % of them occurred during the spring and summer, indicating a seasonal pattern. Based on the frequency of functional attributes, the chemical and petrochemical macro-sector was the most vulnerable, followed by storage and warehousing. About 40 % of all classifiable events happened on storage equipment, while 21 % happened on electric and electronic devices. Given the lack of valuable information for the principal source of data (NRC), the technological scenarios triggered were characterized using a refined subset of 127 observations, obtained considering the "other sources" of data. Fire scenarios predominated at 56 %; coincidentally, roughly 70 % of all scenarios involved hazardous substances classified as physical hazards. Estimated losses for the available information underscored the adverse consequences of lightning-triggered NaTech events, highlighting their major impact on both safety and the environment. An analysis of the event tree showed the logical path from the lightning strike to the final ignition scenarios (considering a subset of 107 records). This path accounted for 36 % of the classifiable records that directly affected the structure, while more than 50 % of them did not. Bayesian network structures made it possible to get conditional probabilities from the event tree and improved the model by adding attributes for vulnerable equipment and macro-sectors. In order to deal with the uncertain data, algorithms were used to generalize the models that were obtained from smaller subsets of data with more accurate information to the whole dataset. It provides an important additional view of unclassifiable data that otherwise remained in the dark. This novel insight contributes to increase the vulnerability awareness of industrial assets against lightning strikes.

Chemical release risk assessment in earthquake: Natech event scenario.

Introduction: In recent decades, an increase in natural disasters has led to the Natech events occurrence, which are technological accidents triggered by natural hazards. This study aims to assess the risk of chemical release of the H2S toxic gas following an earthquake from the refinery. Method: The Natech risk assessment was carried out in potential earthquake risk scenarios via a semi-quantitative method using Rapid-N software. The reference scenario was obtained using the Australian SMUG Model, which has presented precise prioritization. Findings: The Natech risk assessment has shown 40 possible earthquake risk scenarios from 5 enclosing Faults in Tehran (North Tehran, Mosha, North Ray, South Ray, and Kahrizak) with an extension of more than 15 km. The earthquake moment magnitudes of 7.5, 7.1, 6.5, and 5.9 were obtained on the Richter scale and at two Focal depths of 5 and 10 km. The South-Ray Fault (HSR-1) was selected as the reference scenario with a moment magnitude of 7.5 on the Richter scale at a Focal depth of 5 km and a distance of 5.5 km from the earthquake epicenter. The highest probability of Natech risk has shown the release of H2S toxic gas in an area with a radius of 6.59 km from the studied vessel in atmospheric stability conditions. Conclusion: Legislation in line with risk reduction, planning for the transfer of potentially dangerous industries to outside urban areas, monitoring land use laws, and promoting coordination between the government, industries, and people in the management of risks caused by industries containing hazardous substances and processes, assessing the risk of Natech events and their consequences, strengthening risk communication and the installation of early warning systems, and public education to adopt personal and socially safe behaviors when facing natural disasters are recommended.

Natech potential due to emerging climate hazards and awareness of the local stakeholders in the coastal industrial site of Kuala Selangor, Malaysia.

Climate change may put more industrial sites at risk of Natech incidents, particularly in coastal areas due to the compounding effects of climate hazards. This study investigates industrial facilities with potential for Natech due to emerging floods and delineates awareness of the exposed stakeholders, using the best available information, to strengthen local level climate change adaptation and disaster resilience in IKS Kuala Selangor, Malaysia. Two major methods were employed, conceptual site modelling using the source-pathway-receptor-consequence approach and semi-structured interviews to get insights from the local stakeholders. Findings reveal that in the worst-case scenario, manufacturing industries are exposed to floods, have limited flood protection and unknown containment and storage measures of hazardous materials within their facilities. While the high concentration of total metals in the surrounding topsoil has not been linked directly to the manufacturing industries, they have potential for Natech in future flood events. An area with environmentally available lead and arsenic accumulation linked to agricultural activities is also a potential point source for pollution during flood events in the worst-case scenario. Although most of the exposed local stakeholders are aware of climate hazards, they are not prepared for the risks of Natech. The local adaptation plan should include awareness building on Natech targeting the exposed local stakeholders as well as adequate flood protection and updated guidance on managing the safety of hazardous materials at manufacturing industry facilities.

Risk assessment of chemical release accident triggered by landslide using Bayesian network.

This study evaluated the risk of 461,260,800 scenarios of chemical release accidents triggered by landslides. Several industrial accidents triggered by landslides have recently occurred in Japan; however, only a few studies have analyzed the impact of landslide-triggered chemical release accidents on the surrounding areas. Bayesian networks (BNs) have recently been used in the risk assessment of natural hazardtriggered technological accidents (Natech) to quantify uncertainties and develop methods applicable to multiple scenarios. However, the scope of BN-based quantitative risk assessment is limited to the risk assessment of explosions triggered by earthquakes and lightning. We aimed to extend the BN-based risk analysis methodology and evaluate the risk and the effectiveness of the countermeasures for specific facility. A methodology was developed to assess human health risk in the surrounding areas when n-hexane was released and dispersed into the atmosphere due to a landslide. Risk assessment results showed that the societal risk (representing the relationship between frequency and number of people suffering from a particular harm) of the storage tank closest to the slope exceeded the Netherlands' criteria, which are the safest among the criteria in the United Kingdom, Hong Kong, Denmark, and the Netherlands. Limiting the storage rate reduced the probability of one or more fatalities by up to about 40% compared with the no countermeasure case and was a more effective countermeasure than using oil fences and absorbents. Diagnostic analyses quantitatively showed that the distance between the tank and slope was the main contributing factor. The catch basin parameter contributed to the reduction in the variance of the results compared to the storage rate. This finding indicated that physical measures, such as strengthening or deepening the catch basin, are essential for risk reduction. Our methods can be applied to other natural disasters for multiple scenarios by combining it with other models.

Foresight of the Consequences of the Hazmat Release From an Oil Refinery on the Surrounding Urban Community Following an Earthquake: A Natech Scenario Analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the consequences of the Natech scenario of H2S toxic gas release from an oil refinery near Tehran and its effects on surrounding residential areas following an earthquake. METHODS: This research was an applied study. The Natech risk map and the end-point distance of gas release were determined using the Rapid-n software and the Worst-Case Scenario of RMP, respectively. RESULTS: Regarding the high seismic vulnerability of the structures affected by the Natech risk, all residents of this area were simultaneously affected by earthquake and the toxic gas inhalation. In comparison to earthquake, response capacities were poor for Natech events, due to insufficient resources, limited accessibility, lack of planning, and unsafe evacuation places in exposed regions. Unlike earthquake, few studies have been conducted on Natech risk assessment and related consequences in Iran. Our study not only covered this gap but also revealed some dimensions of consequences of human, structural, and response capacities. CONCLUSIONS: It is recommended to have plans for implementing short-term such as identifying vulnerable industries and areas, public awareness and long-term such as land use planning measures to reduce Natech risk and resilience improvement.

People's Response to Potential Natural Hazard-Triggered Technological Threats after a Sudden-Onset Earthquake in Indonesia.

(1) Background: We aim to examine whether people activate initial protection behavior, adopt evacuation behavior, worry about the possibility of a tsunami, and consider natural hazard-triggered technological (Natech) situations in a sudden-onset earthquake. The literature suggests that risk perception is a significant predictor of people's response to potential Natech threats. We aim to empirically verify the variables relating to people's responses. (2) Methods: We conducted a household survey following a January 2018 earthquake in Indonesia. (3) Results: Immediately after the earthquake, almost 30% of the respondents assembled at the evacuation point. However, sequential steps of people's response were not observed: evacuation immediately after the earthquake was due to worry about the possibility of a tsunami, but this worry was not related to Natech damage estimation. The relevant factors for evacuation behavior were information access, worry about the possibility of a tsunami, and knowledge of groups and programs related to disaster risk reduction (DRR). The survey location (two villages), perceived earthquake risk, and DRR activity participation are less relevant to the behavior of assembling at the evacuation point. (4) Conclusions: Contrary to the existing literature, our results do not support that higher risk perception is associated with evacuation behavior, or that immediate evacuation is related to foreseeing cascading sequential consequences.

Multirisk: What trends in recent works? - A bibliometric analysis.

The issue of multirisk is coming under increasing scrutiny in the scientific literature and is of great concern for governments. Multirisk embraces different meanings: domino and cascade effects, NaTech events and the consideration of several natural hazards and their interactions. Scientific production relating to multirisk has been growing over the last 15 years. This review, based on 191 articles, proposes a new way of analyzing and presenting bibliographic results by the use of a global textual analysis. This analysis leads to identify seven main themes of research in the literature: three concern Domino Effects (46.6% of the articles), two are dedicated to the assessment of Multi-(hazard/vulnerability) Risk (28.7%), one deals with Natech issues (13.5%) and one concerns Cascade Effects in critical infrastructures (11.2%). A cross-issue analysis was performed on the basis of four criteria: objectives, hazards, the elements at risk considered, and the approaches used or developed in the articles. It provides general lessons on these items and proposes themes for future research on the topic of multirisk.

Three cases in Japan occurred by natural hazards and lessons for Natech disaster management.

Due to recent climate change, highly-connected society, and the centralization of hazardous materials, Natech is a matter of the growing concern. As Natech disasters occur with low frequency, those in charge of facilities should learn lessons from past cases to prepare for situations in the future in which they may have to respond to a potentially catastrophic event for the first time. This paper describes three Natech cases triggered by the heavy rainfall in Japan in 2018. One resulted in violent explosions, one showed consequences half a year later, and the other managed to avoid a catastrophic situation by preparation based on prior analysis of possible damage. The lessons which can be learnt are as follows: Undertake measures based on the hazardous conditions of materials and possible reactions; Avoid normalcy bias for improved decision-making; Identify slow developing and lagging Natech consequences; Prepare and intensify safeguards to avoid possible damage based on risk analysis; Consider employees' safety in returning to their homes; Collect micro information and aggregate it; Provide current information about the situation to stakeholders; Plan resources required for recovery activities.