Weather and food availability additively affect reproductive output in an expanding raptor population.

The joint effects of interacting environmental factors on key demographic parameters can exacerbate or mitigate the separate factors' effects on population dynamics. Given ongoing changes in climate and land use, assessing interactions between weather and food availability on reproductive performance is crucial to understand and forecast population dynamics. By conducting a feeding experiment in 4 years with different weather conditions, we were able to disentangle the effects of weather, food availability and their interactions on reproductive parameters in an expanding population of the red kite (Milvus milvus), a conservation-relevant raptor known to be supported by anthropogenic feeding. Brood loss occurred mainly during the incubation phase, and was associated with rainfall and low food availability. In contrast, brood loss during the nestling phase occurred mostly due to low temperatures. Survival of last-hatched nestlings and nestling development was enhanced by food supplementation and reduced by adverse weather conditions. However, we found no support for interactive effects of weather and food availability, suggesting that these factors affect reproduction of red kites additively. The results not only suggest that food-weather interactions are prevented by parental life-history trade-offs, but that food availability and weather conditions are crucial separate determinants of reproductive output, and thus population productivity. Overall, our results suggest that the observed increase in spring temperatures and enhanced anthropogenic food resources have contributed to the elevational expansion and the growth of the study population during the last decades.

Mercury exposure of tidal marsh songbirds in the northeastern United States and its association with nest survival.

The biogeochemistry of tidal marsh sediments facilitates the transformation of mercury (Hg) into the biologically available form methylmercury (MeHg), resulting in elevated Hg exposures to tidal marsh wildlife. Saltmarsh and Acadian Nelson's sparrows (Ammospiza caudacutua and A. nelsoni subvirgatus, respectively) exclusively inhabit tidal marshes, potentially experiencing elevated risk to Hg exposure, and have experienced range-wide population declines. To characterize spatial and temporal variation of Hg exposure in these species, we sampled total mercury (THg) in blood collected from 9 populations spanning 560 km of coastline, including individuals resampled within and among years. Using concurrent nesting studies, we tested whether THg was correlated with nest survival probabilities, an index of fecundity. Blood THg ranged from 0.074-3.373 µg/g ww across 170 samples from 127 individuals. We detected high spatial variability in Hg exposure, observing differences of more than 45-fold across all individuals and 8-fold in mean blood THg among all study plots, including 4-fold between study plots within 4 km. Intraindividual changes in blood Hg exposure did not vary systematically in time but were considerable, varying by up to 2-fold within and among years. Controlling for both species differences and maximum water level, the dominant driver of fecundity in this system, nest survival probability decreased by 10% across the full range of female blood THg concentrations observed. We conclude that Hg has the potential to impair songbird reproduction, potentially exacerbating known climate-change driven population declines from sea-level rise in saltmarsh and Acadian Nelson's sparrows.

Targeting Sagebrush (Artemisia Spp.) Restoration Following Wildfire with Greater Sage-Grouse (Centrocercus Urophasianus) Nest Selection and Survival Models.

Unprecedented conservation efforts for sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) ecosystems across the western United States have been catalyzed by risks from escalated wildfire activity that reduces habitat for sagebrush-obligate species such as Greater Sage-Grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus). However, post-fire restoration is challenged by spatial variation in ecosystem processes influencing resilience to disturbance and resistance to non-native invasive species, and spatial and temporal lags between slower sagebrush recovery processes and faster demographic responses of sage-grouse to loss of important habitat. Decision-support frameworks that account for these factors can help users strategically apply restoration efforts by predicting short and long-term ecological benefits of actions. Here, we developed a framework that strategically targets burned areas for restoration actions (e.g., seeding or planting sagebrush) that have the greatest potential to positively benefit sage-grouse populations through time. Specifically, we estimated sagebrush recovery following wildfire and risk of non-native annual grass invasion under four scenarios: passive recovery, grazing exclusion, active restoration with seeding, and active restoration with seedling transplants. We then applied spatial predictions of integrated nest site selection and survival models before wildfire, immediately following wildfire, and at 30 and 50 years post-wildfire based on each restoration scenario and measured changes in habitat. Application of this framework coupled with strategic planting designs aimed at developing patches of nesting habitat may help increase operational resilience for fire-impacted sagebrush ecosystems.

Role of the thermal environment in scaled quail (Callipepla squamata) nest site selection and survival.

Temperature is increasingly recognized as an important component of wildlife habitat. Temperature is particularly important for avian nest sites, where extreme temperatures can influence adult behavior, embryonic development, and survival. For species inhabiting arid and semiarid climates, such as the scaled quail (Callipepla squamata), frequent exposure to extreme temperatures may increase the importance of the nest microclimate. Limited data suggest that scaled quail respond to temperature when selecting nest sites, and they are also known to respond to the presence of surface water and shrub cover on the landscape, two resources which may mitigate thermal stress. To better understand the role of temperature in nest site selection and survival, and to evaluate how other landscape resources may benefit nesting quail, we investigated nest site characteristics of scaled quail in southeastern New Mexico, USA. During the breeding seasons of 2018 and 2019 we located nests, monitored nest fate, and recorded thermal and vegetation characteristics at three spatial scales: the nest bowl, the nest microsite (area within 10 m of the nest bowl), and the landscape. We found that nest bowls moderated temperature relative to both the surrounding microsite and the broader landscape, remaining almost 5 °C cooler on average than the surrounding microsite at mid-day. Nest bowls also had taller, greater cover of vegetation compared to both the surrounding microsites and the landscape. Despite apparent selection for cooler temperatures and taller vegetation, these characteristics demonstrated a weak relationship with nest survival. Rather, nest survival was positively influenced by proximity to surface water and honey mesquite (Prosopis glandulosa), with survival decreasing with increasing distance from these features. Although the mechanism for this relationship is unclear, our results support the importance of temperature for nest site selection of ground-nesting birds in semiarid landscapes, and suggest further exploration of landscape-level sources of thermal mitigation.

Wildfire and the ecological niche: Diminishing habitat suitability for an indicator species within semi-arid ecosystems.

Globally accelerating frequency and extent of wildfire threatens the persistence of specialist wildlife species through direct loss of habitat and indirect facilitation of exotic invasive species. Habitat specialists may be especially prone to rapidly changing environmental conditions because their ability to adapt lags behind the rate of habitat alteration. As a result, these populations may become increasingly susceptible to ecological traps by returning to suboptimal breeding habitats that were dramatically altered by disturbance. We demonstrate a multistage modeling approach that integrates habitat selection and survival during the key nesting life-stage of a bird species of high conservation concern, the greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus; hereafter, sage-grouse). We applied these spatially explicit models to a spatiotemporally robust dataset of sage-grouse nest locations and fates across wildfire-altered sagebrush ecosystems of the Great Basin ecoregion, western United States. Female sage-grouse exhibited intricate habitat selection patterns that varied across regional gradients of ecological productivity among sagebrush communities, but often selected nest sites that disproportionately resulted in nest failure. For example, 23% of nests occurred in wildfire-affected habitats characterized by reduced sagebrush cover and greater composition of invasive annual grasses. We found survival of nests was negatively associated with wildfire-affected areas, but positively associated with higher elevations with increased ruggedness and overall shrub cover. Strong site fidelity likely drove sage-grouse to continue nesting in habitats degraded by wildfire. Hence, increasing frequency and extent of wildfire may contribute disproportionately to reduced reproductive success by creating ecological traps that act as population sinks. Identifying such habitat mismatches between selection and survival facilitates deeper understanding of the mechanisms driving reduced geographic niche space and population decline at broad spatiotemporal scales, while guiding management actions to areas that would be most beneficial to the species.

Variation in selective regimes drives intraspecific variation in life-history traits and migratory behaviour along an elevational gradient.

Comparative studies, across and within taxa, have made important contributions to our understanding of the evolutionary processes that promote phenotypic diversity. Trait variation along geographic gradients provides a convenient heuristic for understanding what drives and maintains diversity. Intraspecific trait variation along latitudinal gradients is well-known, but elevational variation in the same traits is rarely documented. Trait variation along continuous elevational gradients, however, provides compelling evidence that individuals within a breeding population may experience different selective pressures. Our objectives were to quantify variation in a suite of traits along a continuous elevational gradient, evaluate whether individuals in the population experience different selective pressures along that gradient and quantify variation in migratory tendency along that gradient. We examined variation in a suite of 14 life-history, morphological and behavioural traits, including migratory tendency, of yellow-eyed juncos along a continuous 1000-m elevational gradient in the Santa Catalina Mountains of Arizona. Many traits we examined varied along the elevational gradient. Nest survival and nestling growth rates increased, while breeding season length, renesting propensity and adult survival declined, with increasing elevation. We documented the migratory phenotype of juncos (partial altitudinal migrants) and show that individual migratory tendency is higher among females than males and increases with breeding elevation. Our data support the paradigm that variation in breeding season length is a major selective pressure driving life-history variation along elevational gradients and that individuals breeding at high elevation pursue strategies that favour offspring quality over offspring quantity. Furthermore, a negative association between adult survival and breeding elevation and a positive association between nest survival and breeding elevation help explain both the downslope and reciprocal upslope seasonal migratory movements that characterize altitudinal migration in many birds. Our results demonstrate how detailed studies of intraspecific variation in suites of traits along environmental gradients can lend new insights into the evolutionary processes that promote diversification and speciation, the causes of migratory behaviour, and how animal populations will likely respond to climate change.

Reproductive consequences of climate variability in migratory birds: evidence for species-specific responses to spring phenology and cross-seasonal effects.

Climate change is altering global temperature and precipitation regimes, and the ability of species to respond to these changes could have serious implications for population dynamics. Flexible species may adjust breeding dates in response to advances in spring phenology. Furthermore, in migratory bird species, conditions experienced during the non-breeding season may have cross-seasonal effects during the subsequent breeding season. We evaluated species-specific responses to antecedent non-breeding (winter) and current breeding (spring) conditions. We used a data set composed of 21,230 duck nests from 164 sites in the Canadian Prairie Pothole Region, 1993-2011, to determine how environmental conditions influenced timing of nesting and subsequent nest survival in eight duck species representing varying life-histories. We tested how species responded in timing of nesting and nest survival, respectively, to El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions experienced during the preceding non-breeding season (winter; Dec-Feb), and spring (Mar-Jun) temperature and moisture conditions on the breeding grounds. Ducks tended to nest earlier in warmer springs; however, in El Niño winters, with warmer spring temperatures, nesting tended to be later. We did not find evidence for direct effects of environmental variables on nest survival; however, evidence of indirect effects of winter conditions on nest survival for some species via strong direct effects on timing of nesting provides new insights into mechanisms for cross-seasonal effects on reproductive success.

Superpredator proximity and landscape characteristics alters nest site selection and breeding success of a subordinate predator.

Selecting nesting habitat that minimizes predation risk but maximizes foraging success is one of the most important decisions in avian life history. This takes on added complexity when a predator is faced with the challenge of avoiding fellow predators. We assessed the importance of local and landscape vegetation, food abundance, and predation risk on nest site selection and nest survival in a subordinate raptor (Mississippi Kite; Ictinia mississippiensis) nesting in proximity to two superpredators, Red-tailed hawk (Buteo jamaicensis) and Great horned owl (Bubo virginianus). All three species nested in trees in a grassland landscape. In this landscape, kites favored upland trees and shrubs, avoiding their more typical riparian forest association elsewhere in the species' range. Compared to random conditions, kites selected nest sites with high tree density and more closed canopy in the surrounding area. Mississippi Kite selection was not related to food abundance but could be explained by the presence of superpredators (i.e., hawks and owls) selecting riparian woodland for their nests. Nest survival declined with proximity to superpredator nesting sites. Overall, our study demonstrates how landscape structure and superior predators shapes predation risk for subordinate predators. Our results emphasize the importance of spatial heterogeneity in presenting opportunities for subordinate predators to coexist in a landscape with important superpredators.

Multi-state, multi-stage modeling of nest-success suggests interaction between weather and land-use.

Many factors may affect daily nest survival. We present a novel multi-state, multi-stage model to estimate daily survival for each nest stage, daily hatching probability and probability that a failed nest died during a specific stage when stage of failure is unknown. The model does not require that hatching date be known. We used data from a large citizen science dataset to demonstrate the application of this approach, exploring the impact of laying dates, weather conditions, conserved soil moisture, soil carbon, habitat type and urbanization on failure rates of common blackbird (Turdus merula) nests. Models selected and estimates of nest success were similar to those of the simpler logistic exposure method, but accounted for additional uncertainty. Simulations suggest the multi-state approach performs better when incubation mortality is affected by nest age, but not when incubation mortality is assumed constant. Both approaches worked best when date of incubation initiation was known for all nests first visited during the incubation stage. Daily blackbird survival probabilities were higher in human rural habitat than in urban or countryside habitats supporting the hypothesis that these intermediate habitats offer a better balance between low food availability in urban areas and high predation rates in the wider countryside. Nest success was influenced more by recent precipitation in urban habitats, but by a longer-term measure of water availability, soil moisture, in non-human dominated habitats, indicating that climatic change is likely to alter relationships between habitat and breeding success (and their temporal scale) by influencing the trade-off between food availability and predation rates. The multi-state, multi-stage model developed here may be helpful to other researchers modelling ecological processes in which transition probabilities between multiple stages are of interest.

Demographic analysis demonstrates systematic but independent spatial variation in abiotic and biotic stressors across 59 percent of a global species range.

The balance of abiotic and biotic stressors experienced by a species likely varies across its range, resulting in spatially heterogeneous limitations on the species' demographic rates. Support for spatial variation in stressors (often latitudinal gradients) has been found in many species, usually with physiological or correlative occupancy data, but it has rarely been estimated directly with demographic data. We collected demographic data from 23 sites spanning the majority of the Saltmarsh Sparrow (Ammodramus caudacutus) breeding range. Using data from 837 nests, we quantified the abiotic and biotic variables most important to nest survival, which is the dominant driver of both fecundity and population growth rate in this species. We separately estimated daily nest failure probability due to nest depredation (biotic stressor) and nest flooding (abiotic stressor), which collectively account for almost all nest failure in the species. Nest depredation decreased with latitude, whereas nest flooding was not related to latitude. Instead, nest flooding was best predicted by a combination of maximum high tide, extremity of rare flooding events, and date. For a single vital rate, we observed predictable variation in competing biotic and abiotic stressors across this species range. We observed that biotic and abiotic stressors were geographically independent, both on a large spatial scale and locally. Our results suggest that stressors on the fecundity of Saltmarsh Sparrow vary systematically across its range, but independently. The observed patterns of biotic and abiotic stress provide information for efforts to conserve the Saltmarsh Sparrow, which is considered threatened. Further, understanding the effects that different stressors, and their interactions, have on demographic rates is necessary to unravel the processes that govern species distributions and to effectively conserve biodiversity in the face of global change.

El balance de factores de estrés abióticos y bióticos para una especie probablemente varía a través de su rango, dando como resultado limitaciones espaciales heterogéneas en las tasas demográficas de la especie. Se ha verificado la existencia de variación espacial en los factores de estrés (usualmente gradientes latitudinales) para muchas especies, usualmente con datos fisiológicos o de ocupación correlativa, pero raramente se ha estimado directamente con datos demográficos. Colectamos datos demográficos de 23 sitios abarcando la mayoría del rango reproductivo de Ammodramus caudacutus. Usando datos de 837 nidos, cuantificamos las variables abióticas y bióticas más importantes para la supervivencia del nido, que es la variable que determina tanto la fecundidad como la tasa de crecimiento poblacional en esta especie. Por otra parte, estimamos la probabilidad de fracaso diario del nido debido a la depredación del nido (factor de estrés biótico) e inundación del nido (factor de estrés abiótico), que juntos representaron casi todos los fracasos del nido en esta especie. La depredación del nido disminuyó con la latitud mientras que la inundación del nido no se relacionó con la latitud. En cambio, la inundación del nido se predijo mejor por una combinación del máximo superior de la marea, la extremidad de los eventos de inundación raros y la fecha. Considerando una sola tasa vital, observamos variación predecible en los factores de estrés biótico y abiótico que compiten a través del rango de la especie. Observamos que los factores de estrés biótico y abiótico fueron geográficamente independientes tanto a una escala espacial grande como a la escala local. Nuestros resultados sugieren que los factores de estrés relacionados a la fecundidad de A. caudacutus varían sistemática pero independientemente a través de su rango. Los patrones observados de estrés biótico y abiótico brindan información para los esfuerzos de conservación de A. caudacutus, una especie considerada amenazada. Más aún, es necesario entender los efectos que los diferentes factores de estrés y sus interacciones tienen en las tasas demográficas para desenmarañar los procesos que gobiernan las distribuciones de las especies y para conservar la biodiversidad de manera eficiente en miras al cambio global.

Factors that influence vital rates of Seaside and Saltmarsh sparrows in coastal New Jersey, USA.

As saltmarsh habitat continues to disappear, understanding the factors that influence saltmarsh breeding bird population dynamics is an important step for the conservation of these declining species. Using five years (2011 - 2015) of demographic data, we evaluated and compared Seaside (Ammodramus maritimus) and Saltmarsh (A. caudacutus) sparrow apparent adult survival and nest survival at the Edwin B. Forsythe National Wildlife Refuge, New Jersey, USA. We determined the effect of site management history (unditched vs. ditched marsh) on adult and nest survival to aid in prioritizing future management or restoration actions. Seaside Sparrow apparent adult survival (61.6%, 95% CI: 52.5 - 70.0%) averaged >1.5 times greater than Saltmarsh Sparrow apparent adult survival (39.9%, 95% CI: 34.0 - 46.2%). Nest survival and predation and flooding rates did not differ between species, and predation was the primary cause of failure for both species. Apparent adult survival and nest survival did not differ between unditched and ditched marshes for either species, indicating that marsh ditching history may not affect breeding habitat quality for these species. With predation as the primary cause of nest failure for both species in New Jersey, we suggest that future research should focus on identification of predator communities in salt marshes and the potential for implementing predator-control programs to limit population declines.

The indirect effects of climate variability on the reproductive dynamics and productivity of an avian predator in the arid Southwest.

The deserts of the southwestern US are experiencing rapid warming, and climate models predict declining winter precipitation. The combined effects of higher air temperatures and drought are a reduction in productivity, which may importantly impact reproduction in consumers. Here, we investigate the effects of warming and drought on the reproductive timing and output in loggerhead shrikes (Lanius ludovicianus) in central New Mexico from 2007 to 2012. We found increases in air temperature of 3 °C during the breeding season (March-July) and highly variable winter and annual precipitation. With increasing spring temperatures, shrikes advanced nesting phenology by 20 days over 6 years, a much higher rate than is reported for any other bird species. During this period, the number of breeding pairs also increased from 25 to 37, and clutch size and the number offspring produced per successful nest did not vary. Nest success, however, was often very low and ranged from 11 to 46%. Although our models indicated that low nest success was driven by precipitation and temperature, it was mediated indirectly through increased predation rates during the hot and dry periods.

Mitigation effectiveness for improving nesting success of greater sage-grouse influenced by energy development.

Sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) habitats being developed for oil and gas reserves are inhabited by sagebrush obligate species-including the greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus; sage-grouse) that is currently being considered for protection under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Numerous studies suggest increasing oil and gas development may exacerbate species extinction risks. Therefore, there is a great need for effective on-site mitigation to reduce impacts to co-occurring wildlife such as sage-grouse. Nesting success is a primary factor in avian productivity and declines in nesting success are also thought to be an important contributor to population declines in sage-grouse. From 2008 to 2011 we monitored 296 nests of radio-marked female sage-grouse in a natural gas (NG) field in the Powder River Basin, Wyoming, USA and compared nest survival in mitigated and non-mitigated development areas and relatively unaltered areas to determine if specific mitigation practices were enhancing nest survival. Nest survival was highest in relatively unaltered habitats followed by mitigated, and then non-mitigated NG areas. Reservoirs used for holding NG discharge water had the greatest support as having a direct relationship to nest survival. Within a 5 km2 area surrounding a nest, the probability of nest failure increased by about 15% for every 1.5 km increase in reservoir water edge. Reducing reservoirs was a mitigation focus and sage-grouse nesting in mitigated areas were exposed to almost half of the amount of water edge compared to those in non-mitigated areas. Further, we found that an increase in sagebrush cover was positively related to nest survival. Consequently, mitigation efforts focused on reducing reservoir construction and reducing surface disturbance, especially when the surface disturbance results in sagebrush removal, are important to enhancing sage-grouse nesting success.

Hard times in the city - attractive nest sites but insufficient food supply lead to low reproduction rates in a bird of prey.

INTRODUCTION: Urbanization is a global phenomenon that is encroaching on natural habitats and decreasing biodiversity, although it is creating new habitats for some species. The Eurasian kestrel (Falco tinnunculus) is frequently associated with urbanized landscapes but it is unclear what lies behind the high densities of kestrels in the urban environment. RESULTS: Occupied nest sites in the city of Vienna, Austria were investigated along a gradient of urbanization (percentage of land covered by buildings or used by traffic). Field surveys determined the abundance of potential prey (birds and rodents) and the results were compared to the birds' diets. A number of breeding parameters were recorded over the course of three years. The majority of kestrels breed in semi-natural cavities in historic buildings. Nearest neighbour distances (NND) were smallest and reproductive success lowest in the city centre. Abundance of potential prey was not found to relate to the degree of urbanization but there was a significant shift in the birds' diets from a heavy reliance on rodents in the outskirts of the city to feeding more on small birds in the centre. The use of urban habitats was associated with higher nest failure, partly associated with predation and nest desertion, and with significantly lower hatching rates and smaller fledged broods. CONCLUSIONS: High breeding densities in urban habitats do not necessarily correlate with high habitat quality. The high density of kestrel nests in the city centre is probably due to the ready availability of breeding cavities. Highly urbanized areas in Vienna are associated with unexpected costs for the city dwelling-raptor, in terms both of prey availability and of reproductive success. The kestrel appears to be exploiting the urban environment but given the poor reproductive performance of urban kestrels it is likely that the species is falling into an ecological trap.

Direct effects of cattle on grassland birds in Canada.

Effects of grazing on grassland birds are generally thought to be indirect, through alteration of vegetation structure; however, livestock can also affect nest survival directly through trampling and other disturbances (e.g., livestock-induced abandonment). We extracted data on nest fates from 18 grazing studies conducted in Canada. We used these data to assess rates of nest destruction by cattle among 9 ecoregions and between seasonal and rotational grazing systems. Overall, few nests were destroyed by cattle (average 1.5% of 9132 nests). Nest destruction was positively correlated with grazing pressure (i.e., stocking rate or grazing intensity), but nest survival was higher in more heavily grazed areas for some species. Because rates of destruction of grassland bird nests by cattle are low in Canada, management efforts to reduce such destruction may not be of ecological or economic value in Canada.

Effects of wind energy development on nesting ecology of greater prairie-chickens in fragmented grasslands.

Wind energy is targeted to meet 20% of U.S. energy needs by 2030, but new sites for development of renewable energy may overlap with important habitats of declining populations of grassland birds. Greater Prairie-Chickens (Tympanuchus cupido) are an obligate grassland bird species predicted to respond negatively to energy development. We used a modified before-after control-impact design to test for impacts of a wind energy development on the reproductive ecology of prairie-chickens in a 5-year study. We located 59 and 185 nests before and after development, respectively, of a 201 MW wind energy facility in Greater Prairie-Chicken nesting habitat and assessed nest site selection and nest survival relative to proximity to wind energy infrastructure and habitat conditions. Proximity to turbines did not negatively affect nest site selection (ß = 0.03, 95% CI = -1.2-1.3) or nest survival (ß = -0.3, 95% CI = -0.6-0.1). Instead, nest site selection and survival were strongly related to vegetative cover and other local conditions determined by management for cattle production. Integration of our project results with previous reports of behavioral avoidance of oil and gas facilities by other species of prairie grouse suggests new avenues for research to mitigate impacts of energy development.

Factors affecting the nesting success of Swainson's Thrush (Catharus ustulatus) along an elevational gradient.

Montane birds experience a range of challenges that may limit their breeding success, including nest predation and severe climactic conditions. The continuing effects of climate change are causing shifts in biotic and abiotic factors that may compound these threats to montane bird species. In northeastern montane forests, many bird species are shifting downslope, potentially as the result of increased precipitation and temperature at higher elevations. Although lower elevations might be more favorable in terms of climactic conditions, nest predation is higher at lower elevations. Thus, montane birds might be faced with the opposing pressures of adverse climactic conditions at higher elevations and increased predation at lower elevations. We monitored nests of Swainson's Thrush (Catharus ustulatus) along an elevation gradient in the White Mountain National Forest in New Hampshire in 2016, 2018, 2019, and 2021 to examine the effect of biotic and abiotic factors on daily nest survival rate (DSR). Linear time explained the most variation of DSR in AICc model comparison, indicating that DSR decreases across the breeding season. Rain intensity (mm/h) had a weak negative effect on DSR, indicating that heavier rain per hour decreases Swainson's Thrush DSR. Moreover, we found some support for a negative interaction effect of elevation in conjunction with minimum daily temperature: DSR of Swainson's Thrush nests at low elevations (281 m) increased with increasing minimum daily temperatures and decreased at high elevations with increasing minimum daily temperatures. Our results suggest nesting survival of montane breeding birds may be at risk as heavier precipitation events become more frequent and intense due to the changing climate and raises the possibility that other passerine species could be at risk in this system.

Heterogeneity in breeding productivity is driven largely by factors affecting nestlings and young fledglings in an imperiled migratory passerine.

Identifying factors that drive variation in vital rates among populations is a prerequisite to understanding a species' population biology and, ultimately, to developing effective conservation strategies. This is especially true for imperiled species like the golden-winged warbler (Vermivora chrysoptera) that exhibit strong spatial heterogeneity in demography and responds variably to conservation interventions. Habitat management actions recommended for breeding grounds conservation include timber harvest, shrub shearing, and prescribed fire that maintain or create early successional woody communities. Herein, we assessed variation in the survival of nests [n = 145] and fledglings [n = 134] at 17 regenerating timber harvest sites within two isolated populations in Pennsylvania that differed in productivity and response to habitat management. Although the overall survival of nests and fledglings was higher in the eastern population than the central population, this was only true when the nest phases and fledgling phases were considered wholly. Indeed, survival rates of nestlings and recently fledged young (1-5 days post-fledging) were lower in the central population, whereas eggs and older fledglings (6-30 days post-fledging) survived at comparable rates in both populations. Fledglings in the central population were smaller (10% lower weight) and begged twice as much as those in the eastern population, suggesting food limitation may contribute to lower survival rates. Fledgling survival in the central population, but not the eastern, also was a function of habitat features (understory vegetation density [positive] and distance to mature forest [negative]) and individual factors (begging effort [negative]). Our findings illustrate how identifying how survival varies across specific life stages can elucidate potential underlying demographic drivers, such as food resources in this case. In this way, our work underscores the importance of studying and decomposing stage-specific demography in species of conservation concern.

Delay in Adélie penguin nest occupation restricts parental investment in nest construction and reduces reproductive output.

Reproductive success is an important demographic parameter that can be driven by environmental and behavioural factors operating on various spatio-temporal scales. As seabirds breed on land and forage in the ocean, processes occurring in both environments can influence their reproductive success. At various locations around East Antarctica, Adélie penguins' (Pygoscelis adeliae) reproductive success has been negatively linked to extensive sea-ice. In contrast, our study site in the Windmill Islands has limited fast ice present during the breeding season, allowing us to examine drivers of reproductive success under vastly different marine environmental conditions. Here, we examined the reproductive success of 450 Adélie penguin nests over a 10-year period using images obtained from remotely operated cameras. We analysed nest survival in relation to marine and climatic factors, environmental conditions at the camera site and immediately around the nest, and behavioural attributes reflecting parental investment and phenological timing. Our key result was a strong positive association between nest structure and chick survival, particularly when ground moisture and snow cover around the nest were high. Earlier nesting birds were more likely to build bigger nests, although it is unclear whether this is due to more time available to build nests or whether early arrival and high-quality nests are complementary traits. This intrinsic activity is likely to become more important if future predictions of increased snowfall in this region manifest.

Predators, alternative prey and climate influence annual breeding success of a long-lived sea duck.

1. Perturbations to ecosystems have the potential to directly and indirectly affect species interactions, with subsequent impacts on population dynamics and the vital rates that regulate them. 2. The few long-term studies of common eider breeding ecology indicate that reproductive success is low in most years, interrupted by occasional boom years. However, no study has explicitly examined the drivers of long-term variation in reproductive success. 3. Here, we use encounter history data collected across 41 years to examine the effects of arctic foxes (a terrestrial nest predator), local abundance and spatial distribution of lesser snow geese (an alternative prey source), and spring climate on common eider nest success. 4. Eider nest success declined over the course of the study, but was also highly variable across years. Our results supported the hypothesis that the long-term decline in eider nest success was caused by apparent competition with lesser snow geese, mediated by shared predators. This effect persisted even following a large-scale exodus of nesting geese from the eider colony. Nest success was also lowest in years of low arctic fox index, presumably driven by prey switching in years of low small mammal availability. However, increased snow goose abundance appeared to buffer this effect through prey swamping. The effect of spring climate depended on the stage of the breeding season; cold and wet and warm and dry conditions in early spring were correlated with decreased nest success, whereas warm and wet conditions in late spring increased eider nest success. 5. These results underscore the significance of both trophic interactions and climate in regulating highly variable vital rates, which likely have important consequences for population dynamics and the conservation of long-lived iteroparous species.