Ventilatory efficiency as a prognostic factor for postoperative complications in patients undergoing elective major surgery: a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Major surgery is associated with high complication rates. Several risk scores exist to assess individual patient risk before surgery but have limited precision. Novel prognostic factors can be included as additional building blocks in existing prediction models. A candidate prognostic factor, measured by cardiopulmonary exercise testing, is ventilatory efficiency (VE/VCO2). The aim of this systematic review was to summarise evidence regarding VE/VCO2 as a prognostic factor for postoperative complications in patients undergoing major surgery. METHODS: A medical library specialist developed the search strategy. No database-provided limits, considering study types, languages, publication years, or any other formal criteria were applied to any of the sources. Two reviewers assessed eligibility of each record and rated risk of bias in included studies. RESULTS: From 10,082 screened records, 65 studies were identified as eligible. We extracted adjusted associations from 32 studies and unadjusted from 33 studies. Risk of bias was a concern in the domains 'study confounding' and 'statistical analysis'. VE/VCO2 was reported as a prognostic factor for short-term complications after thoracic and abdominal surgery. VE/VCO2 was also reported as a prognostic factor for mid- to long-term mortality. Data-driven covariable selection was applied in 31 studies. Eighteen studies excluded VE/VCO2 from the final multivariable regression owing to data-driven model-building approaches. CONCLUSIONS: This systematic review identifies VE/VCO2 as a predictor for short-term complications after thoracic and abdominal surgery. However, the available data do not allow conclusions about clinical decision-making. Future studies should select covariables for adjustment a priori based on external knowledge. SYSTEMATIC REVIEW PROTOCOL: PROSPERO (CRD42022369944).

Mortality following noncardiac surgery assessed by the Saint Louis University Score (SLUScore) for hypotension: a retrospective observational cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The Saint Louis University Score (SLUScore) was developed to quantify intraoperative blood pressure trajectories and their associated risk for adverse outcomes. This study examines the prevalence and severity of intraoperative hypotension described by the SLUScore and its relationship with 30-day mortality in surgical subtypes. METHODS: This retrospective analysis of perioperative data included surgical cases performed between January 1, 2010, and December 31, 2020. The SLUScore is calculated from cumulative time-periods for which the mean arterial pressure is below a range of hypotensive thresholds. After calculating the SLUScore for each surgical procedure, we quantified the prevalence and severity of intraoperative hypotension for each surgical procedure and the association between intraoperative hypotension and 30-day mortality. We used binary logistic regression to quantify the potential contribution of intraoperative hypotension to mortality. RESULTS: We analysed 490 982 cases (57.7% female; mean age 57 yr); 33.2% of cases had a SLUScore>0, a median SLUScore of 13 (inter-quartile range [IQR] 7-21), with 1.19% average mortality. The SLUScore was associated with mortality in 12/14 surgical groups. The increases in the odds ratio for death within 30 days of surgery per SLUScore increment were: all surgery types 3.5% (95% confidence interval [95% CI] 3.2-3.9); abdominal/transplant surgery 6% (95% CI 1.5-10.7); thoracic surgery1.5% (95% CI 1-3.3); vascular surgery 3.01% (95% CI 1.9-4.05); spine/neurosurgery 1.1% (95% CI 0.1-2.1); orthopaedic surgery 1.4% (95% CI 0.7-2.2); gynaecological surgery 6.3% (95% CI 2.5-10.1); genitourinary surgery 4.84% (95% CI 3.5-6.15); gastrointestinal surgery 5.2% (95% CI 3.9-6.4); gastroendoscopy 5.5% (95% CI 4.4-6.7); general surgery 6.3% (95% CI 5.5-7.1); ear, nose, and throat surgery 1.6% (95% CI 0-3.27); and cardiac electrophysiology (including pacemaker procedures) 6.6% (95% CI 1.1-12.4). CONCLUSIONS: The SLUScore was independently, but variably, associated with 30-day mortality after noncardiac surgery.

Association between postinduction hypotension and postoperative mortality: a single-centre retrospective cohort study.

PURPOSE: We aimed to elucidate whether postinduction hypotension (PIH), defined as hypotension between anesthesia induction and skin incision, and intraoperative hypotension (IOH) are associated with postoperative mortality. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of adult patients with an ASA Physical Status I-IV who underwent noncardiac and nonobstetric surgery under general anesthesia between 2015 and 2021 at Nagoya City University Hospital. The primary and secondary outcomes were 30-day and 90-day postoperative mortality, respectively. We calculated four hypotensive indices (with time proportion of the area under the threshold being the primary exposure variable) to evaluate the association between hypotension (defined as a mean blood pressure < 65 mm Hg) and mortality using multivariable logistic regression models. We used propensity score matching and RUSBoost (random under-sampling and boosting), a machine-learning model for imbalanced data, for sensitivity analyses. RESULTS: Postinduction hypotension and IOH were observed in 82% and 84% of patients, respectively. The 30-day and 90-day postoperative mortality rates were 0.4% (52/14,210) and 1.0% (138/13,334), respectively. Postinduction hypotension was not associated with 30-day mortality (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 1.03; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.93 to 1.13; P = 0.60) and 90-day mortality (aOR, 1.01; 95% CI, 0.94 to 1.07; P = 0.82). Conversely, IOH was associated with 30-day mortality (aOR, 1.19; 95% CI, 1.12 to 1.27; P < 0.001) and 90-day mortality (aOR, 1.12; 95% CI, 1.06 to 1.19; P < 0.001). Sensitivity analyses supported the association of IOH but not PIH with postoperative mortality. CONCLUSION: Despite limitations, including power and residual confounding, postoperative mortality was associated with IOH but not with PIH.

RéSUMé: OBJECTIF: Nous avons cherché à déterminer si l'hypotension post-induction (HPI), définie comme une hypotension entre l'induction de l'anesthésie et l'incision cutanée, et l'hypotension peropératoire (HPO) étaient associées à la mortalité postopératoire. MéTHODE: Nous avons mené une étude de cohorte rétrospective de patient·es adultes ayant un statut physique I-IV selon l'ASA et ayant bénéficié d'une chirurgie non cardiaque et non obstétricale sous anesthésie générale entre 2015 et 2021 à l'Hôpital universitaire de la ville de Nagoya. Les critères d'évaluation principal et secondaire étaient la mortalité postopératoire à 30 et 90 jours, respectivement. Nous avons calculé quatre indices d'hypotension (la proportion temporelle de la zone sous le seuil étant la principale variable d'exposition) pour évaluer l'association entre l'hypotension (définie comme une tension artérielle moyenne < 65 mm Hg) et la mortalité à l'aide de modèles de régression logistique multivariée. Nous avons utilisé l'appariement par score de propension et le RUSBoost (sous-échantillonnage et boosting aléatoire), un modèle d'apprentissage automatique pour les données déséquilibrées, pour les analyses de sensibilité. RéSULTATS: Une HPI et une HPO ont été observées chez 82 % et 84 % des patient·es, respectivement. Les taux de mortalité postopératoire à 30 et 90 jours étaient respectivement de 0,4 % (52/14 210) et de 1,0 % (138/13 334). L'hypotension post-induction n'était pas associée à la mortalité à 30 jours (rapport de cotes ajusté [RCa], 1,03; intervalle de confiance [IC] à 95 %, 0,93 à 1,13; P = 0,60) et à la mortalité à 90 jours (RCa, 1,01; IC 95 %, 0,94 à 1,07; P = 0,82). À l'inverse, l'HPO était associée à une mortalité à 30 jours (RCa, 1,19; IC 95 %, 1,12 à 1,27; P < 0,001) et à la mortalité à 90 jours (RCa, 1,12; IC 95 %, 1,06 à 1,19; P < 0,001). Les analyses de sensibilité ont confirmé l'association de l'HPO, mais pas de l'HPI, avec la mortalité postopératoire. CONCLUSION: Malgré les limitations, y compris la puissance et persistance de facteurs confondants, la mortalité postopératoire était associée à l'hypotension peropératoire mais pas à l'hypotension post-induction seule.

Mortality and cardiac arrest rates of emergency surgery in developed and developing countries: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: The magnitude of the risk of death and cardiac arrest associated with emergency surgery and anesthesia is not well understood. Our aim was to assess whether the risk of perioperative and anesthesia-related death and cardiac arrest has decreased over the years, and whether the rates of decrease are consistent between developed and developing countries. METHODS: A systematic review was performed using electronic databases to identify studies in which patients underwent emergency surgery with rates of perioperative mortality, 30-day postoperative mortality, or perioperative cardiac arrest. Meta-regression and proportional meta-analysis with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were performed to evaluate global data on the above three indicators over time and according to country Human Development Index (HDI), and to compare these results according to country HDI status (low vs. high HDI) and time period (pre-2000s vs. post-2000s). RESULTS: 35 studies met the inclusion criteria, representing more than 3.09 million anesthetic administrations to patients undergoing anesthesia for emergency surgery. Meta-regression showed a significant association between the risk of perioperative mortality and time (slope: -0.0421, 95%CI: from - 0.0685 to -0.0157; P = 0.0018). Perioperative mortality decreased over time from 227 per 10,000 (95% CI 134-380) before the 2000s to 46 (16-132) in the 2000-2020 s (p < 0-0001), but not with increasing HDI. 30-day postoperative mortality did not change significantly (346 [95% CI: 303-395] before the 2000s to 292 [95% CI: 201-423] in the 2000s-2020 period, P = 0.36) and did not decrease with increasing HDI status. Perioperative cardiac arrest rates decreased over time, from 113 per 10,000 (95% CI: 31-409) before the 2000s to 31 (14-70) in the 2000-2020 s, and also with increasing HDI (68 [95% CI: 29-160] in the low-HDI group to 21 [95% CI: 6-76] in the high-HDI group, P = 0.012). CONCLUSIONS: Despite increasing baseline patient risk, perioperative mortality has decreased significantly over the past decades, but 30-day postoperative mortality has not. A global priority should be to increase long-term survival in both developed and developing countries and to reduce overall perioperative cardiac arrest through evidence-based best practice in developing countries.

Long-term outcomes of spine surgery in dialysis patients, focusing on activities of daily living, life expectancy, and the risk factors for postoperative mortality.

BACKGROUND: Because of the high incidence of major perioperative adverse events, spine surgery in dialysis patients should be recommended carefully after consideration of its risks and benefits. However, the benefits of spine surgery in dialysis patients remain unclear because of the lack of long-term outcomes. The purpose of this study is to elucidate the long-term outcomes of spine surgery in dialysis patients, focusing on activities of daily living (ADLs), life expectancy, and risk factors for postoperative mortality. METHODS: Data for 65 dialysis patients who underwent spine surgery at our institution and were followed up for a mean duration of 6.2 years were retrospectively reviewed. ADLs, number of surgeries, and survival times were recorded. The postoperative survival rate was calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method, and risk factors for postoperative mortality were investigated using a generalized Wilcoxon test and multivariate Cox proportional-hazards model. RESULTS: Compared with preoperative ADLs, ADLs significantly improved at discharge after surgery and at the final follow-up. However, 16 of the 65 patients (24.6%) underwent multiple surgeries, and 34 (52.3%) died during the follow-up period. Kaplan-Meier analysis revealed that the survival rate after spine surgery was 95.4% at 1 year, 86.2% at 3 years, 69.6% at 5 years, 59.7% at 7 years, and 28.7% at 10 years, and the overall median survival time was 99 months. Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that a dialysis period of ≥10 years was a significant risk factor. CONCLUSIONS: Spine surgery in dialysis patients improved and maintained ADLs in the long term and did not shorten life expectancy. However, dialysis patients undergoing spine surgery require multiple surgeries more frequently, and a dialysis period of ≥10 years is a significant risk factor for postoperative mortality.

Prediction of postoperative mortality in older surgical patients by clinical frailty scale: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

AIMS: To systematically evaluate the predictive efficacy of clinical frailty scale (CFS) for postoperative mortality older surgical patients, and to evaluate the prevalence of frailty in the included studies. DESIGN: A systematic review and meta-analysis of observational studies was conducted, utilizing the MOOSE guidelines for the evaluation of both. Quality assessment of the articles was also performed. DATA SOURCES: The protocol was registered (CRD42023423552). Relevant English and Chinese language studies published until October 20th, 2023 were retrieved from PubMed, Web of Science, Embase, Medline, CINAHL,Cochrane, WAN FANG DATA, VIP Information, CNKI, and SinoMed databases. REVIEW METHODS: Study were included in which frailty was measured by the CFS and postoperative mortality was reported for older surgery patients. A meta-analysis to predict postoperative mortality and frailty prevalence was performed using STATA 17.0 software. RESULTS: Sixteen cohort studies were included (5,864 participants) from 1,513 records. All studies' Newcastle-Ottawa Scale (NOS) scores were above 6 points. It was found that the prevalence of surgical frailty in the older was 0.36(CI 0.20-0.52). Patients assessed as frail by the CFS were associated with higher all-cause mortality (OR:4.01; CI 2.59-6.23). Subgroup analysis shows that frailty was associated with1-month mortality (OR:3.85; CI 1.11-13.45) and 1-year mortality (OR:4.43; CI 2.18-8.99). CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of frailty is high in older surgical patients, and CFS can effectively predict the mortality of older surgical patients with frailty.

Depression as a Prognostic Factor in Lower Extremity Amputation for Diabetic Foot: Insights From a Prospective Study on Wound Healing, Infections, and Early Mortality.

This study addresses the challenges faced by diabetic patients undergoing lower extremity amputation due to diabetic foot, particularly focusing on the implications for wound healing and early mortality. The wounds at the amputation stump may necessitate multiple surgical interventions. The aim is to identify prognostic factors associated with these outcomes, shedding light on the complexities surrounding the postamputation phase. A prospective study was conducted on 39 diabetic patients who underwent lower extremity amputation due to diabetic foot between 2021 and 2022. Comprehensive preoperative data, encompassing parameters such as blood count, erythrocyte sedimentation rate, C-reactive protein, procalcitonin, hemoglobin A1c, albumin, protein, transferrin, ferritin levels, age, gender, body mass index, smoking habits, dialysis, revascularization, duration of surgery, and the use of tourniquet during the procedure were meticulously recorded. Additionally, cognitive performance and depression status were assessed preoperatively using the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) and Beck Depression Inventory (BDI), respectively. A follow-up period of 3 months postsurgery allowed for the comparison of patients who developed infections at the amputation stump with those who did not, as well as the distinction between patients who survived and those who succumbed to mortality. The study revealed that the use of a tourniquet during surgery significantly increased the risk of infection (p = .027), and higher BDI scores were associated with increased risks of both infection (AUC = 0.814) and mortality (AUC = 0.769), with cut-off scores of 24.0 and 23.5 predicting these outcomes with high sensitivity and specificity, respectively. Additionally, lower MMSE scores were associated with increased short-term postoperative mortality. There were no statistically significant differences between the groups in parameters such as complete blood count, ESR, CRP, procalcitonin, HbA1c, albumin, total protein, transferrin, ferritin levels, age, gender, BMI, smoking, dialysis, revascularization, and surgery duration. This investigation highlights the significance of considering tourniquet usage during amputation, preoperative depression status, and cognitive function in patients who undergo amputation due to diabetic foot. The use of a tourniquet during surgery is a significant risk factor for infection, and elevated BDI scores are strong predictors of both infection and mortality in patients undergoing amputations. The findings underscore the importance of a multidisciplinary neuropsychiatric evaluation preoperatively to enhance patient care and outcomes.

Comparison of the Effects of Multiple Frailty and Nutritional Indexes on Postoperative Outcomes in Critically Ill Patients Undergoing Lung Transplantation.

Background and Objective: Lung transplantation is the only life-extending therapy for end-stage pulmonary disease patients, but its risks necessitate an understanding of outcome predictors, with the frailty index and nutritional status being key assessment tools. This study aims to evaluate the relationship between preoperative frailty and nutritional indexes and the postoperative mortality rate in patients receiving lung transplants, and to determine which measure is a more potent predictor of outcomes. Materials and Methods: This study reviewed 185 adults who received lung transplants at a single medical center between January 2013 and May 2023. We primarily focused on postoperative 7-year overall survival. Other outcomes measured were short-term mortalities, acute rejection, kidney complications, infections, and re-transplantation. We compared the predictive abilities of preoperative nutritional and frailty indicators for survival using receiver operating characteristic curve analysis and identified factors affecting survival through regression analyses. Results: There were no significant differences in preoperative nutritional indicators between survivors and non-survivors. However, preoperative frailty indicators did differ significantly between these groups. Multivariate analysis revealed that the American Society of Anesthesiologists Class V, clinical frailty scale, and Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) were key predictors of 7-year overall survival. Of these, the CCI had the strongest predictive ability with an area under the curve of 0.755, followed by the modified frailty index at 0.731. Conclusions: Our study indicates that for critically ill patients undergoing lung transplantation, frailty indexes derived from preoperative patient history and functional autonomy are more effective in forecasting postoperative outcomes, including survival, than indexes related to preoperative nutritional status.

Improvement of Russian clinical guidelines and reduction of mortality in perforated ulcers / O perspektivakh sovershenstvovaniya rossiiskikh klinicheskikh rekomendatsii i snizheniya letal'nosti pri probodnoi yazve.

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the results of laparoscopic surgery in patients with perforated ulcers using evidence-based medicine approaches. MATERIAL AND METHODS: We compared the efficacy and effectiveness of laparoscopic and open surgeries in patients with perforated ulcers. Meta-analysis of mortality after laparoscopic surgeries (randomized controlled trials) and trial sequential analysis were carried out. RESULTS: We clarified the differences between the efficacy and effectiveness of laparoscopic surgeries regarding postoperative mortality. In the Russian Federation, mortality after laparoscopic surgery is 9-11 times lower compared to open procedures. According to evidence-based researches (efficacy of laparoscopic interventions in 10 meta-analyses), these differences are less obvious (1.4-3.0 times) and not significant. The diversity-adjusted required information size to draw reasonable conclusions about differences in mortality in trial sequential analysis was 68 181 participants. Meta-analyses of RCTs also demonstrate lower incidence of wound complications (1.8-5.0% after laparoscopic surgery and 6.3-13.3% after laparotomy), shorter hospital-stay (mean difference from -0.13 to -2.84) and less severe pain syndrome (mean difference in VAS score from -2.08 to -2.45) after laparoscopic technologies. CONCLUSION: The obvious advantage of laparoscopic surgery in patients with perforated ulcers is fast-truck recovery following shorter hospital-stay, mild pain and rarer wound complications. Comparison of postoperative mortality regarding efficacy and effectiveness is difficult due to insufficient introduction of laparoscopic technologies in clinical practice and diversity-adjusted required information size.

A Retrospective Cohort Study to Evaluate Adding Biomarkers to the Risk Analysis Index of Frailty.

INTRODUCTION: The Risk Analysis Index (RAI) is a frailty assessment tool associated with adverse postoperative outcomes including 180 and 365-d mortality. However, the RAI has been criticized for only containing subjective inputs rather than including more objective components such as biomarkers. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study to assess the benefit of adding common biomarkers to the RAI using the Veterans Affairs Surgical Quality Improvement Program (VASQIP) database. RAI plus body mass index (BMI), creatinine, hematocrit, and albumin were evaluated as individual and composite variables on 180-d postoperative mortality. RESULTS: Among 480,731 noncardiac cases in VASQIP from 2010 to 2014, 324,320 (67%) met our inclusion criteria. Frail patients (RAI ≥30) made up to 13.0% of the sample. RAI demonstrated strong discrimination for 180-d mortality (c = 0.839 [0.836-0.843]). Discrimination significantly improved with the addition of Hematocrit (c = 0.862 [0.859-0.865]) and albumin (c = 0.870 [0.866-0.873]), but not for body mass index (BMI) or creatinine. However, calibration plots demonstrate that the improvement was primarily at high RAI values where the model overpredicts observed mortality. CONCLUSIONS: While RAI's ability to predict the risk of 180-d postoperative mortality improves with the addition of certain biomarkers, this only observed in patients classified as very frail (RAI >49). Because very frail patients have significantly elevated observed and predicted mortality, the improved discrimination is likely of limited clinical utility for a frailty screening tool.

Postoperative outcomes, predictors and trends of mortality and morbidity in patients undergoing hip fracture surgery with underlying aortic stenosis: a nationwide inpatient sample analysis.

BACKGROUND: Hip fractures frequently necessitate hospitalization, especially among patients aged 75 and above who might concurrently suffer from aortic stenosis (AS). This study focuses on postoperative outcomes, potential determinants of morbidity and mortality, as well as evolving trends in patients with AS undergoing surgical repair of hip fractures. METHODS: A retrospective analysis of the Nationwide Inpatient Sample from 2008 to 2019 was conducted. Hip fracture cases were identified, and a subgroup with AS was isolated using the ICD-9 and ICD-10 diagnostic codes. We compared baseline characteristics, postoperative in-hospital outcomes and trends in mortality and morbidity between patients with and without AS. RESULTS: From the dataset, 2,834,919 patients with hip fracture were identified on weighted analysis. Of these, 94,270 (3.3%) were found to have concurrent AS. The AS cohort was characterized by higher mean age and elevated burden of cardiovascular comorbidities, such as coronary artery disease, peripheral vascular disease, pulmonary hypertension, congestive heart failure and cardiac arrhythmias. Postoperative mortality following hip fracture surgery was greater in the AS groups compared to non-AS group (3.3% vs 1.57%, p < 0.001). Risk factors such as congestive heart failure (OR, 2.3[CI, 2.1-2.6]), age above 85 years (OR, 3.2[CI, 2.2-4.7]), cardiac arrhythmias (OR, 2.4[CI, 2.2-2.6]), end-stage renal disease (OR, 3.4[CI, 2.7-4.1]), malnutrition (OR, 2.3[CI, 2.1-2.7]) and AS (OR, 1.2[CI, 1.08-1.5] were associated with increased adjusted odds of postoperative mortality. AS was linked to higher adjusted odds of postoperative mortality (OR, 1.2 [CI, 1.1-1.5]) and complications such as acute myocardial infarction (OR, 1.2 [CI, 1.01-1.4]), cardiogenic shock (OR, 2.0[CI, 1.4-2.9]) and acute renal failure (OR, 1.1[CI, 1.02-1.2]). While hospital stay duration was comparable in both groups (average 5 days), the AS group incurred higher costs (mean $50,673 vs $44,607). The presence of acute heart failure in patients with AS and hip fracture significantly increased mortality, hospital stay, and cost. A notable decline in postoperative in-hospital mortality was observed in both groups from 2008-2019 though the rate of major in-hospital complications rose. CONCLUSION: AS significantly influences postoperative in-hospital mortality and complication rates in hip fracture patients. While a reduction in postoperative mortality was observed in both AS and non-AS cohorts, the incidence of major in-hospital complications increased across both groups.

Outcomes after emergency appendicectomy in patients with liver cirrhosis: a population-based cohort study from England.

INTRODUCTION: The mortality risk after appendicectomy in patients with liver cirrhosis is predicted to be higher than in the general population given the associated risk of perioperative bleeding, infections and liver decompensation. This population-based cohort study aimed to determine the 90-day mortality risk following emergency appendicectomy in patients with cirrhosis. METHODS: Adult patients undergoing emergency appendicectomy in England between January 2001 and December 2018 were identified from two linked primary and secondary electronic healthcare databases, the clinical practice research datalink and hospital episode statistics data. Length of stay, re-admission, case fatality and the odds ratio of 90-day mortality were calculated for patients with and without cirrhosis, adjusting for age, sex and co-morbidity using logistic regression. RESULTS: A total of 40,353 patients underwent appendicectomy and of these 75 (0.19%) had cirrhosis. Patients with cirrhosis were more likely to be older (p < 0.0001) and have comorbidities (p < 0.0001). Proportionally, more patients with cirrhosis underwent an open appendicectomy (76%) compared with 64% of those without cirrhosis (p = 0.03). The 90-day case fatality rate was 6.67% in patients with cirrhosis compared with 0.56% in patients without cirrhosis. Patients with cirrhosis had longer hospital length of stay (4 (IQR 3-9) days versus 3 (IQR 2-4) days and higher readmission rates at 90 days (20% vs 11%, p = 0.019). Most importantly, their odds of death at 90 days were 3 times higher than patients without cirrhosis, adjusted odds ratio 3.75 (95% CI 1.35-10.49). CONCLUSION: Patients with cirrhosis have a threefold increased odds of 90-day mortality after emergency appendicectomy compared to those without cirrhosis.

Development and validation of a prognostic model for death 30 days after adult emergency laparotomy.

The probability of death after emergency laparotomy varies greatly between patients. Accurate pre-operative risk prediction is fundamental to planning care and improving outcomes. We aimed to develop a model limited to a few pre-operative factors that performed well irrespective of surgical indication: obstruction; sepsis; ischaemia; bleeding; and other. We derived a model with data from the National Emergency Laparotomy Audit for patients who had emergency laparotomy between December 2016 and November 2018. We tested the model on patients who underwent emergency laparotomy between December 2018 and November 2019. There were 4077/40,816 (10%) deaths 30 days after surgery in the derivation cohort. The final model had 13 pre-operative variables: surgical indication; age; blood pressure; heart rate; respiratory history; urgency; biochemical markers; anticipated malignancy; anticipated peritoneal soiling; and ASA physical status. The predicted mortality probability deciles ranged from 0.1% to 47%. There were 1888/11,187 deaths in the test cohort. The scaled Brier score, integrated calibration index and concordance for the model were 20%, 0.006 and 0.86, respectively. Model metrics were similar for the five surgical indications. In conclusion, we think that this prognostic model is suitable to support decision-making before emergency laparotomy as well as for risk adjustment for comparing organisations.

An ensemble machine learning approach to predict postoperative mortality in older patients undergoing emergency surgery.

BACKGROUND: Prediction of preoperative frailty risk in the emergency setting is a challenging issue because preoperative evaluation cannot be done sufficiently. In a previous study, the preoperative frailty risk prediction model used only diagnostic and operation codes for emergency surgery and found poor predictive performance. This study developed a preoperative frailty prediction model using machine learning techniques that can be used in various clinical settings with improved predictive performance. METHODS: This is a national cohort study including 22,448 patients who were older than 75 years and visited the hospital for emergency surgery from the cohort of older patients among the retrieved sample from the Korean National Health Insurance Service. The diagnostic and operation codes were one-hot encoded and entered into the predictive model using the extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) as a machine learning technique. The predictive performance of the model for postoperative 90-day mortality was compared with those of previous frailty evaluation tools such as Operation Frailty Risk Score (OFRS) and Hospital Frailty Risk Score (HFRS) using the receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. RESULTS: The predictive performance of the XGBoost, OFRS, and HFRS for postoperative 90-day mortality was 0.840, 0.607, and 0.588 on a c-statistics basis, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Using machine learning techniques, XGBoost to predict postoperative 90-day mortality, using diagnostic and operation codes, the prediction performance was improved significantly over the previous risk assessment models such as OFRS and HFRS.

Predicting mortality in patients with anastomotic leak after esophagectomy: development of a prediction model using data from the TENTACLE-Esophagus study.

Anastomotic leak (AL) is a common but severe complication after esophagectomy, and over 10% of patients with AL suffer mortality. Different prognostic factors in patients with AL are known, but a tool to predict mortality after AL is lacking. This study aimed to develop a prediction model for postoperative mortality in patients with AL after esophagectomy. TENTACLE-Esophagus is an international retrospective cohort study, which included 1509 patients with AL after esophagectomy. The primary outcome was 90-day postoperative mortality. Previously identified prognostic factors for mortality were selected as predictors: patient-related (e.g. comorbidity, performance status) and leak-related predictors (e.g. leucocyte count, overall gastric conduit condition). The prediction model was developed using multivariable logistic regression and validated internally using bootstrapping. Among the 1509 patients with AL, 90-day mortality was 11.7%. Sixteen predictors were included in the prediction model. The model showed good performance after internal validation: the c-index was 0.79 (95% confidence interval 0.75-0.83). Predictions for mortality by the internally validated model aligned well with observed 90-day mortality rates. The prediction model was incorporated in an online tool for individual use and can be found at: https://www.tentaclestudy.com/prediction-model. The developed prediction model combines patient-related and leak-related factors to accurately predict postoperative mortality in patients with AL after esophagectomy. The model is useful for clinicians during counselling of patients and their families and may aid identification of high-risk patients at diagnosis of AL. In the future, the tool may guide clinical decision-making; however, external validation of the tool is warranted.

Transoral robotic surgery adoption and safety in treatment of oropharyngeal cancers.

BACKGROUND: Transoral robotic surgery (TORS) was approved by the Food and Drug Administration in 2009 for the treatment of oropharyngeal cancers (oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma [OPSCC]). This study investigated the adoption and safety of TORS. METHODS: All patients who underwent TORS for OPSCC in the National Cancer Data Base from 2010 to 2016 were selected. Trends in the positive margin rate (PMR), 30-day unplanned readmission, and early postoperative mortality were evaluated. Outcomes after TORS, nonrobotic surgery (NRS), and nonsurgical treatment were compared with matched-pair survival analyses. RESULTS: From 2010 to 2016, among 73,661 patients with OPSCC, 50,643 were treated nonsurgically, 18,024 were treated with NRS, and 4994 were treated with TORS. TORS utilization increased every year from 2010 (n = 363; 4.2%) to 2016 (n = 994; 8.3%). The TORS PMR for base of tongue malignancies decreased significantly over the study period (21.6% in 2010-2011 vs 15.8% in 2015-2016; P = .03). The TORS PMR at high-volume centers (≥10 cases per year; 11.2%) was almost half that of low-volume centers (<10 cases per year; 19.3%; P < .001). The rates of 30-day unplanned readmission (4.1%) and 30-day postoperative mortality (1.0%) after TORS were low and did not vary over time. High-volume TORS centers had significantly lower rates of 30-day postoperative mortality than low-volume centers (0.5% vs 1.5%; P = .006). In matched-pair analyses controlling for clinicopathologic cofactors, 30-, 60-, and 90-day posttreatment mortality did not vary among patients with OPSCC treated with TORS, NRS, or nonsurgical treatment. CONCLUSIONS: TORS has become widely adopted and remains safe across the country with a very low risk of severe complications comparable to the risk with NRS. Although safety is excellent nationally, high-volume TORS centers have superior outcomes with lower rates of positive margins and early postoperative mortality.

A Vascular Quality Initiative frailty assessment predicts postdischarge mortality in patients undergoing arterial reconstruction.

BACKGROUND: Frailty assessment adds important prognostic information during preoperative decision-making but can be cumbersome to implement into routine clinical care. We developed and tested an abbreviated method of frailty assessment using variables routinely collected by the Vascular Quality Initiative (VQI) registry. METHODS: An abbreviated frailty score (the simple Vascular Quality Initiative-Frailty Score [VQI-FS]) was developed using 11 or fewer VQI variables (hypertension, congestive heart failure, coronary artery disease, peripheral vascular disease, diabetes, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, renal impairment, anemia, underweight, nonhome residence, and nonambulatory status) that map to recognized frailty domains in the Comprehensive Geriatric Assessment and the literature. Nonemergent cases registered in the VQI from 2010 to 2017 (n = 265,632) in seven registries (carotid endarterectomy, n = 77,111; carotid artery stenting, n = 13,215; endovascular abdominal aortic aneurysm repair, n = 29,607; open abdominal aortic aneurysm repair, n = 7442; infrainguinal bypass, n = 33,128; suprainguinal bypass, n = 10,661; and peripheral vascular intervention, n = 94,468) were analyzed using logistic regression models to determine the predictive power of the VQI-FS for perioperative and longer term (9-month) mortality. Nomograms were created using weighted regression coefficients to assist in individualized frailty assessment and estimation of 9-month mortality. RESULTS: The VQI-FS, using equal weighting of these 11 VQI variables, effectively predicted 9-month mortality with an area under the curve of 0.724 by receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. However, differential weighting of the variables allowed simplification of the model to only seven variables (congestive heart failure, renal impairment, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, not living at home, not ambulatory, anemia, and underweight status); hypertension, coronary artery disease, peripheral vascular disease, and diabetes had relatively low predictive power. Adding procedure-specific risk further improved performance of the model with a final area under the curve on receiver operating characteristic curve analysis of 0.758. Model calibration was excellent with predicted/observed regression line slope of 0.991 and intercept of 5.449e-04. CONCLUSIONS: A differentially weighted abbreviated VQI-FS using seven variables in addition to procedure-specific risk has strong correlation with 9-month mortality. Nomograms incorporating patient- and procedure-adjusted risk can effectively predict 9-month mortality. Reliable estimates of longer term mortality should assist in preoperative decision-making for vascular procedures that often carry substantial risk of mortality.

Association of Race With Postoperative Mortality Following Major Abdominopelvic Trauma in Children.

BACKGROUND: The leading cause of mortality among children is trauma. Race and ethnicity are critical determinants of pediatric postsurgical outcomes, with minority children generally experiencing higher rates of postoperative morbidity and mortality than White children. This pattern of poorer outcomes for racial and/or ethnic minority children has also been demonstrated in children with head and limb traumas. While injuries to the abdomen and pelvis are not as common, they can be life-threatening. Racial and/or ethnic differences in outcomes of pediatric abdominopelvic operative traumas have not been examined. Our objective was to determine whether disparities exist in postoperative mortality among children with major abdominopelvic trauma. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We performed a retrospective analysis of the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project Kids' Inpatient Database for 2003, 2006, 2009, and 2012. Patients were included if they were < 18 years, sustained a major abdominopelvic injury, and underwent subsequent surgical intervention. Our primary outcome was inpatient mortality, comparing children of different race and/or ethnicity. RESULTS: We identified a weighted cohort of 13,955 children, of whom 6765 (48.5%) were White, 3614 (25.9%) Black, and 2647 (19.0%) Hispanic. After adjusting for covariates, Black children were 94% more likely to die than their White peers (3.3% versus 1.6%, adjusted-RR:1.94, 95%CI: 1.33-2.82, P = 0.001). Hispanic children (adjusted-RR:1.99, 95%CI: 1.36-2.91, P < 0.001) and those of other race and/or ethnicity (adjusted-RR: 2.02, 95%CI:1.20-3.40, P = 0.008) were also more likely to die compared to their White peers. CONCLUSIONS: Black and Hispanic children who require operative intervention following major abdominopelvic trauma have a higher risk of postoperative mortality compared with White children.

Comparative study of indocyanine green (ICG)-R15 and Albumin-Indocyanine Green Evaluation (ALICE) grading system in the prediction of posthepatectomy liver failure and postoperative mortality in patients with hepatic alveolar echinococcosis.

BACKGROUND: A precise evaluation of liver reserve function in patients with hepatic alveolar echinococcosis (HAE) prior to hepatectomy could substantially increase the success rate of the operation and reduce the incidence of postoperative complications. The present study aimed to investigate the significance of the indocyanine green retention test at 15 min (ICG-R15) and the Albumin-Indocyanine Green Evaluation (ALICE) grading system in predicting severe posthepatectomy liver failure (PHLF) and postoperative mortality in HAE patients undergoing liver resection. METHODS: A total of 105 HAE patients undergoing hepatectomy were enrolled in this study. The value of each variable in predicting severe PHLF was evaluated by univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves (AUC) were calculated to evaluate the predictive ability of the Child-Pugh grade, ICG-R15, and ALICE grading system. Also, patients were classified using the optimal cutoff value for ICG-R15 and different ALICE grades, and the incidence of severe PHLF and postoperative mortality were compared with the predicted values. RESULTS: Out of the 105 HAE patients enrolled in this study, 34 patients (32.4%) developed severe PHLF. The ALICE grade and operative time were identified as independent predictors of severe PHLF. According to ROC analysis, the AUCs of the Child-Pugh grade, ICG-R15, and ALICE grade for predicting severe PHLF were 0.733 (95% confidence interval (CI), 0.637-0.814), 0.823 (95% CI, 0.737-0.891), 0.834 (95% CI, 0.749-0.900). The incidence of severe PHLF and postoperative 90-day mortality in patients with ICG-R15 > 7.2% were significantly higher than those with ICG-R15 ≤ 7.2% (P < 0.001; P = 0.008). Likewise, the incidence of severe PHLF and postoperative 90-day mortality in patients with ALICE grade 2 were higher than those with ALICE grade 1 within the Child-Pugh grade A (P < 0.001; P = 0.083). CONCLUSION: ICG-R15 and ALICE grading system are powerful predictors of severe PHLF and postoperative mortality among HAE patients undergoing hepatectomy. Furthermore, a combination of the preoperative Child-Pugh grade and ALICE grading system may provide an even more precise and objective guidance and facilitate surgical decision-making for HAE patients.

Mortality following elective and emergency colectomy in patients with cirrhosis: a population-based cohort study from England.

BACKGROUND: Patients with cirrhosis undergoing colectomy have a higher risk of postoperative mortality, but contemporary estimates are lacking and data on associated risk and longer term outcomes are limited. This study aimed to quantify the risk of mortality following colectomy by urgency of surgery and stage of cirrhosis. DATA SOURCES: Linked primary and secondary-care electronic healthcare data from England were used to identify all patients undergoing colectomy from January 2001 to December 2017. These patients were classified by the absence or presence of cirrhosis and severity. Case fatality rates at 90 days and 1 year were calculated, and cox regression was used to estimate the hazard ratio of postoperative mortality controlling for age, gender and co-morbidity. RESULTS: Of the total, 36,380 patients undergoing colectomy, 248 (0.7%) had liver cirrhosis, and 70% of those had compensated cirrhosis. Following elective colectomy, 90-day case fatality was 4% in those without cirrhosis, 7% in compensated cirrhosis and 10% in decompensated cirrhosis. Following emergency colectomy, 90-day case fatality was higher; it was 16% in those without cirrhosis, 35% in compensated cirrhosis and 41% in decompensated cirrhosis. This corresponded to an adjusted 2.57 fold (95% CI 1.75-3.76) and 3.43 fold (95% CI 2.02-5.83) increased mortality risk in those with compensated and decompensated cirrhosis, respectively. This higher case fatality in patients with cirrhosis persisted at 1 year. CONCLUSION: Patients with cirrhosis undergoing emergency colectomy have a higher mortality risk than those undergoing elective colectomy both at 90 days and 1 year. The greatest mortality risk at 90 days was in those with decompensation undergoing emergency surgery.