Range of trait variation in prey determines evolutionary contributions to predator growth rates.

Evolutionary and ecological dynamics can occur on similar timescales and thus influence each other. While it has been shown that the relative contribution of ecological and evolutionary change to population dynamics can vary, it still remains unknown what influences these differences. Here, we test whether prey populations with increased variation in their defence and competitiveness traits will have a stronger impact on evolution for predator growth rates. We controlled trait variation by pairing distinct clonal lineages of the green alga Chlamydomonas reinhardtii with known traits as prey with the rotifer Brachionus calyciforus as predator and compared those results with a mechanistic model matching the empirical system. We measured the impact of evolution (shift in prey clonal frequency) and ecology (shift in prey population density) for predator growth rate and its dependency on trait variation using an approach based on a 2-way ANOVA. Our experimental results indicated that higher trait variation, i.e., a greater distance in trait space, increased the relative contribution of prey evolution to predator growth rate over 3-4 predator generations, which was also observed in model simulations spanning longer time periods. In our model, we also observed clone-specific results, where a more competitive undefended prey resulted in a higher evolutionary contribution, independent of the trait distance. Our results suggest that trait combinations and total prey trait variation combine to influence the contribution of evolution to predator population dynamics, and that trait variation can be used to identify and better predict the role of eco-evolutionary dynamics in predator-prey systems.

Automated escape system: identifying prey's kinematic and behavioral features critical for predator evasion.

Identifying the kinematic and behavioral variables of prey that influence evasion from predator attacks remains challenging. To address this challenge, we have developed an automated escape system that responds quickly to an approaching predator and pulls the prey away from the predator rapidly, similar to real prey. Reaction distance, response latency, escape speed and other variables can be adjusted in the system. By repeatedly measuring the response latency and escape speed of the system, we demonstrated the system's ability to exhibit fast and rapid responses while maintaining consistency across successive trials. Using the live predatory fish species Coreoperca kawamebari, we show that escape speed and reaction distance significantly affect the outcome of predator-prey interactions. These findings indicate that the developed escape system is useful for identifying kinematic and behavioral features of prey that are critical for predator evasion, as well as for measuring the performance of predators.

Ciliate Grazing on the Bloom-Forming Microalga Gonyostomum semen.

The freshwater raphidophyte Gonyostomum semen forms extensive summer blooms in northern European humic lakes. The development of these blooms might be facilitated by a lack of natural top-down control, as few zooplankton species are able to prey on these large algal cells (up to 100 µm) that expel trichocysts upon physical stress. In this study, we describe a small ciliate species (< 17 µm) that preys on G. semen by damaging the cell membrane until cytoplasm and organelles spill out. Sequencing of clonal cultures of the ciliate tentatively identified it as the prostomatid species Urotricha pseudofurcata. Grazing experiments illustrated that feeding by U. cf. pseudofurcata can significantly reduce cell concentrations of the microalga. However, differences in cell size and growth rate between two investigated ciliate strains resulted in noticeably different grazing pressure. Environmental sequencing data from five different lakes supported potential interactions between the two species. Urotricha cf. pseudofurcata might, thus, play an important role in aquatic ecosystems that are regularly dominated by G. semen, reducing the abundance of this bloom-forming microalga and enabling transfer of organic carbon to higher trophic levels.

Function of snail shell hairs in anti-predator defense.

The function and evolutionary background of the hairs on the shells of terrestrial gastropods is largely unknown. Many hypotheses proposed by malacologists have never been proven, and the long-held hypothesis of mechanical stability in wet environments has been rejected by recent studies. It would therefore be worthwhile to reexamine other hypotheses regarding the adaptive significance of shell hairs. We investigated the defense function of shell hairs against a specialist predator, the snail-eating firefly, in the long-haired snail Moellendorffia diminuta. The firefly larvae, which hunt snails using abdominal suckers, were unable to attach to the shell because of the shell hairs but were able to attach to the shells that had lost their hairs. About half of the hairy snails successfully defended themselves by swinging their shells and dropping firefly larvae, but most of the snails without hair failed to defend. The hairs reduce the ability of the larva to attach to the shell and increase the effectiveness of the shell-swinging defense behavior in removing the larva from the shell. As shell hairs grow longer with shell development, they may confer an advantage based on the predator's growth stage. Our findings highlight the anti-predator defense role of shell hairs in land snails, introducing a hypothesis previously overlooked in the evolutionary context of hairy snails.

Direct evidence of a prey depletion "halo" surrounding a pelagic predator colony.

Colonially breeding birds and mammals form some of the largest gatherings of apex predators in the natural world and have provided model systems for studying mechanisms of population regulation in animals. According to one influential hypothesis, intense competition for food among large numbers of spatially constrained foragers should result in a zone of prey depletion surrounding such colonies, ultimately limiting their size. However, while indirect and theoretical support for this phenomenon, known as "Ashmole's halo," has steadily accumulated, direct evidence remains exceptionally scarce. Using a combination of vessel-based surveys and Global Positioning System tracking, we show that pelagic seabirds breeding at the tropical island that first inspired Ashmole's hypothesis do indeed deplete their primary prey species (flying fish; Exocoetidae spp.) over a considerable area, with reduced prey density detectable >150 km from the colony. The observed prey gradient was mirrored by an opposing trend in seabird foraging effort, could not be explained by confounding environmental variability, and can be approximated using a mechanistic consumption-dispersion model, incorporating realistic rates of seabird predation and random prey dispersal. Our results provide a rare view of the resource footprint of a pelagic seabird colony and reveal how aggregations of these central-place foraging, marine top predators profoundly influence the oceans that surround them.

Strategic predatory pursuit of the stealthy, highly manoeuvrable, slow flying bat Corynorhinus townsendii.

A predator's capacity to catch prey depends on its ability to navigate its environment in response to prey movements or escape behaviour. In predator-prey interactions that involve an active chase, pursuit behaviour can be studied as the collection of rules that dictate how a predator should steer to capture prey. It remains unclear how variable this behaviour is within and across species since most studies have detailed the pursuit behaviour of high-speed, open-area foragers. In this study, we analyse the pursuit behaviour in 44 successful captures by Corynorhinus townsendii, Townsend's big-eared bat (n = 4). This species forages close to vegetation using slow and highly manoeuvrable flight, which contrasts with the locomotor capabilities and feeding ecologies of other taxa studied to date. Our results indicate that this species relies on an initial stealthy approach, which is generally sufficient to capture prey (32 out of 44 trials). In cases where the initial approach is not sufficient to perform a capture attempt (12 out of 44 trials), C. townsendii continues its pursuit by reacting to prey movements in a manner best modelled with a combination of pure pursuit, or following prey directly, and proportional navigation, or moving to an interception point.

Nematodes and their bacterial prey improve phosphorus acquisition by wheat.

Plant growth is greatly influenced by the rhizosphere microbiome, which has been traditionally investigated from a bottom-up perspective assessing how resources such as root exudates stimulate microbial growth and drive microbiome assembly. However, the importance of predation as top-down force on the soil microbiome remains largely underestimated. Here, we planted wheat both in natural and in sterilized soils inoculated with the key microbiome predators - bacterivorous nematodes - to assess how plant performance responds to top-down predation of the soil microbiome and specific plant growth-promoting bacteria, namely phosphate-solubilizing bacteria. We found that nematodes enriched certain groups (e.g. Actinobacteria, Chloroflexi, and Firmicutes) and strengthened microbial connectance (e.g. Actinobacteria and Proteobacteria). These changes in microbiome structure were associated with phosphate-solubilizing bacteria that facilitated phosphorus (P) cycling, leading to greater P uptake and biomass of wheat in both soils. However, the enhancement varied between nematode species, which may be attributed to the divergence of feeding behavior, as nematodes with weaker grazing intensity supported greater abundance of phosphate-solubilizing bacteria and better plant performance compared with nematodes with greater grazing intensity. These results confirmed the ecological importance of soil nematodes for ecosystem functions via microbial co-occurrence networks and suggested that the predation strength of nematodes determines the soil bacteria contribution to P biogeochemical cycling and plant growth.

Contrasting laboratory and field outcomes of bat-moth interactions.

Predator-prey interactions are important but difficult to study in the field. Therefore, laboratory studies are often used to examine the outcomes of predator-prey interactions. Previous laboratory studies have shown that moth hearing and ultrasound production can help prey avoid being eaten by bats. We report here that laboratory behavioural outcomes may not accurately reflect the outcomes of field bat-moth interactions. We tested the success rates of two bat species capturing moths with distinct anti-bat tactics using behavioural experiments. We compared the results with the dietary composition of field bats using next-generation DNA sequencing. Rhinolophus episcopus and Rhinolophus osgoodi had a lower rate of capture success when hunting for moths that produce anti-bat clicks than for silent eared moths and earless moths. Unexpectedly, the success rates of the bats capturing silent eared moths and earless moths did not differ significantly from each other. However, the field bats had a higher proportion of silent eared moths than that of earless moths and that of clicking moths in their diets. The difference between the proportions of silent eared moths and earless moths in the bat diets can be explained by the difference between their abundance in bat foraging habitats. These findings suggest that moth defensive tactics, bat countertactics and moth availability collectively shape the diets of insectivorous bats. This study illustrates the importance of using a combination of behavioural experiments and molecular genetic techniques to reveal the complex interactions between predators and prey in nature.

The relative importance of social information use for population abundance in group-living and non-grouping prey.

Predator-prey relationships are fundamental components of ecosystem functioning, within which the spatial consequences of prey social organization can alter predation rates. Group-living (GL) species are known to exploit inadvertent social information (ISI) that facilitates population persistence under predation risk. Still, the extent to which non-grouping (NG) prey can benefit from similar processes is unknown. Here we built an individual-based model to explore and compare the population-level consequences of ISI use in GL and NG prey. We differentiated between GL and NG prey only by the presence or absence of social attraction toward conspecifics that drives individual movement patterns. We found that the extent of the benefits of socially acquired predator information in NG highly depends on the prey's ability to detect nearby predators, prey density and the occurrence of false alarms. Conversely, even moderate probabilities of ISI use and predator detection can lead to maximal population-level benefits in GL prey. This theoretical work provides additional insights into the conditions under which ISI use can facilitate population persistence irrespective of prey social organisation.

Playing it by ear: gregarious sparrows recognize and respond to isolated wingbeat sounds and predator-based cues.

The ability to detect an incoming attack provides a final opportunity for an animal to avoid predation. In birds, vision is the main sensory mode in detecting attacks, but auditory cues likely play an important role. The role of auditory cues from predators themselves remains largely unstudied. We evaluated the ability of free-living, gregarious sparrows (Passerellidae) to recognize attacks based on the non-vocal sounds made by predators or indirect auditory cues of ongoing attacks, mainly in the form of brief wingbeat sequences from predatory and non-predatory birds. Behavioral responses to playbacks were video-recorded and expressed in terms of a flock's propensity to respond, either by flushing to cover, becoming vigilant, or both. Sparrows responded equally to hawk wingbeats and those of small passerines. Both predator and non-predator wingbeat sequences induced anti-predator responses, especially when played loudly. Loud control sounds, such as hammering, induced few responses. Birds also responded to the sounds of a walking and running terrestrial predator (a dog), but reactions to the walking predator often involved birds jumping onto objects for a better view of their surroundings rather than immediate flight to cover. In an additional experiment, we examined how characteristics of wingbeat sequences (i.e., the number and cadence of hawk wingbeats) affected passerine responses. It indicated that only two consecutive hawk wingbeats, presented at a natural cadence, are necessary to elicit a strong response to a playback. Single hawk wingbeats induced only weak escape responses, as did artificially slowed cadences. Birds in general likely possess the ability to recognize non-vocal, auditory cues of incoming attacks, which may be produced by approaching threats or departing congeners.

Beyond simple habituation: Anthropogenic habitats influence the escape behaviour of spur-winged lapwings in response to both human and non-human threats.

Habitat development may affect wildlife behaviour, favouring individuals or behaviours that cope better with perceived threats (predators). Bolder behaviours in human-dominated habitats (HDH; e.g. urban and rural settlements) may represent habituation specifically to humans, or a general reduction in predator-avoidance response. However, such carry-over effects across threat types (i.e. beyond humans) and phases of the escape sequence have not been well studied to date. Here we investigated escape behaviours of a locally common wader species, the spur-winged lapwing Vanellus spinosus. We assayed their flight initiation distance (FID) and subsequent escape behaviours in agricultural areas and in HDH. We found that lapwings in HDH were bolder, and that the difference was manifested in several phases of the predator-avoidance sequence (shorter FIDs, shorter distances fled, and a higher probability of escape by running vs. flying). When re-approached (by an observer) after landing, lapwings in HDH were also more repetitive in their FID than those in other habitats. To determine whether this apparent bolder behaviour in HDH areas is merely a consequence of habituation to humans or represents a broader behavioural change, we introduced an additional threat type-a remotely-operated taxidermic jackal ('Jack-Truck'). Finding bolder responses in the HDH to the human threat alone (and not to the Jack-Truck) could have supported the habituation hypothesis. In contrast, however, we found a bolder response in the HDH to both threat types, as well as a correlation between their FIDs across different sites. These bolder behaviours suggest that HDH impose a broader behavioural change on lapwings, rather than just simple habituation. Overall, our findings demonstrate how FID trials can reveal strong behavioural carry-over effects of HDH following human and non-human threats, including effects on the subsequent phases of escaping the predator. Further, FID assays may reveal consistent behavioural types when assessed under field conditions, and offer a direct way to differentiate among the various poorly understood and non-mutually exclusive mechanisms that lead to behavioural differences among organisms in HDH. The mechanistic perspective is essential for understanding how rapid urbanization impacts wildlife behaviour, populations, and the range of behaviours within them, even in species apparently resilient to such environmental changes.

Eggs in faeces: defensive mechanisms and effects of faecal coating by a water scavenger beetle, Coelostoma stultum (Coleopterea: Hydrophilidae).

The egg stage in insect development is vulnerable to fluctuations in environmental conditions and attacks by natural enemies. Protective devices are effective means of avoiding both abiotic and biotic damage to eggs. Although some insects use their faeces as a protective device, few studies have focused on using faeces for egg protection, and studies that examined the mechanism are lacking. Females of a water scavenger beetle, Coelostoma stultum, typically lay eggs and coat them with cocoons and their faeces. The efficacy of a double defensive device, however, remains uncertain. Here, we conducted field observations and laboratory experiments to assess the protective effects of cocoons with faecal coating on eggs against predation and determine the duration and mechanisms of this defence. Our findings reveal that the faeces on the egg cocoon protected eggs from predation by the pill bugs, Armadillidium vulgare, and marsh slugs, Deroceras laeve. Laboratory experiments showed that the defensive effect of faecal coating was maintained for three days and decreased daily. The double protective traits with faecal coating on the egg cocoons protected the eggs from instense predation pressure in C. stultum. The behavioural patterns of the pill bugs and egg predation rates indicate that the faecal coating behaviour in C. stultum protects eggs with chemical compounds and textural camouflage in mud when the antennae of the pill bugs touch faeces. It is important to note that for this defence to be effective, the chemistry and texture of the faeces should be similar to that of the oviposition sites.

Colour-specific diet specialization is associated with differences in owlet weight in a polymorphic owl: influence of the trophic quality variation.

The niche divergence hypothesis proposes that the evolution and maintenance of colour polymorphism is based on a mechanism of disruptive selection. In a trophic context, the hypothesis predicts that individuals differing in colour vary in their trophic niche, either because they differ in foraging efficiency or feed in different habitats. A major evolutionary conundrum is how these expectations are affected by variation in trophic quality. Using an owl species with colour plumage polymorphism, the Eurasian scops owl Otus scops, we examined diet and habitat segregation during reproduction in relation to plumage colouration and trophic quality. Intensive sampling revealed that trophic quality for scops owls (i.e. abundance of grasshoppers and locusts) varied more among territories than between years, but scops owls did not segregate among territories of different quality by their colouration. However, we found that sex, plumage colouration and territory differences in trophic quality explained differences in the degree of dietary specialization. Brownish males delivered a higher diversity of prey to the nest than greyish ones in high trophic quality territories. We also found that the more diverse the diet provided by males, the heavier the owlets at fledging. Our study provides evidence for a different sensitivity to trophic quality of the colour morphs with potential fitness consequences in scops owls. We highlight the importance of studying the mechanisms leading to the persistence of colour polymorphism in patchy environments, since segregation may pass otherwise unnoticed if only habitats or years with similar conditions are considered.

Odors Attracting the Long-Legged Predator Medetera signaticornis Loew to Ips typographus L. Infested Norway Spruce Trees.

Predatory long-legged flies of the genus Medetera are important, but currently understudied, natural enemies of Scolytinae bark beetles such as Ips typographus. Medetera flies lay eggs on beetle-infested trees, where the developing larvae find their prey, but the chemical cues used by Medetera to locate infested trees are currently unknown. To identify odors attracting Medetera signaticornis, a species in Europe, headspace samples were collected at several time-points through different stages of I. typographus attacks on logs of Norway spruce (Picea abies). The headspace samples were analyzed using combined gas chromatography and mass spectrometry (GC-MS), and gas chromatography coupled with electroantennographic detection (GC-EAD) to determine compounds that stimulate M. signaticornis antennae. Antennae of M. signaticornis males and females were found to detect (-)-cis-verbenol, ( +)-trans-verbenol and myrtenol, which are known to be produced by bark beetles. Antennal responses were also observed for verbenene, isoterpinolene, α-pinene oxide, camphor, pinocamphone, terpinene-4-ol, myrtenal, borneol, α-terpineol, geranyl acetone, and verbenone, which are primarily produced by microorganisms, and α-pinene, α-fenchene, ß-pinene, camphene, 3-carene, limonene, γ-terpinene, and terpinolene, known spruce tree compounds. In field experiments testing two synthetic blends containing 18 antennal active and two additional compounds 2-methyl-3-buten-2-ol and ipsdienol we observed significant attraction of M. signaticornis within 24 h. These attractive blends can form the basis for development of Medetera monitoring lures for use in future forest and pest management.

Predation risk effects on larval development and adult life of Aedes aegypti mosquito.

Biological control is one of the methods available for control of Aedes aegypti populations. We used experimental microcosms to evaluate the effects of actual predation and predation risk by dragonfly larvae (Odonata) on larval development, adult longevity, and adult size of Ae. aegypti. We used six treatments: control, removal, variable density cues (Cues VD), fixed density cues (Cues FD), variable density predator (Predator VD), and fixed density predator (Predator FD) (n = 5 each). Predator treatments received one dragonfly larva. Cue treatments were composed of crushed Ae. aegypti larvae released into the microcosm. For the FD treatments, we maintained a larval density of 200 individuals. The average mortality of Ae. aegypti larvae in the Predator VD treatment was used as the standard mortality for the other treatments. Mosquitoes from the Predator VD and Cues VD treatments developed faster, and adults were larger and had greater longevity compared to all other treatments, likely due to the higher food availability from larval density reduction. High larval density negatively affected larval developmental time, adult size, and longevity. Males were less sensitive to density-dependent effects. Results from this study suggest that the presence of predators may lead to the emergence of adult mosquitoes with greater fitness, causing an overall positive effect on Ae. aegypti population growth rates.

Natural diversity in the predatory behavior facilitates the establishment of a robust model strain for nematode-trapping fungi.

Nematode-trapping fungi (NTF) are a group of specialized microbial predators that consume nematodes when food sources are limited. Predation is initiated when conserved nematode ascaroside pheromones are sensed, followed by the development of complex trapping devices. To gain insights into the coevolution of this interkingdom predator-prey relationship, we investigated natural populations of nematodes and NTF that we found to be ubiquitous in soils. Arthrobotrys species were sympatric with various nematode species and behaved as generalist predators. The ability to sense prey among wild isolates of Arthrobotrys oligospora varied greatly, as determined by the number of traps after exposure to Caenorhabditis elegans While some strains were highly sensitive to C. elegans and the nematode pheromone ascarosides, others responded only weakly. Furthermore, strains that were highly sensitive to the nematode prey also developed traps faster. The polymorphic nature of trap formation correlated with competency in prey killing, as well as with the phylogeny of A. oligospora natural strains, calculated after assembly and annotation of the genomes of 20 isolates. A chromosome-level genome assembly and annotation were established for one of the most sensitive wild isolates, and deletion of the only G-protein ß-subunit-encoding gene of A. oligospora nearly abolished trap formation. In summary, our study establishes a highly responsive A. oligospora wild isolate as a model strain for the study of fungus-nematode interactions and demonstrates that trap formation is a fitness character in generalist predators of the nematode-trapping fungus family.

Functional response of 3 green lacewing species (Neuroptera: Chrysopidae) to Leucoptera coffeella (Lepidoptera: Lyonetiidae).

Green lacewings (Neuroptera: Chrysopidae) are predators commonly found in coffee plantations in Brazil that can serve as important biological control agents against insect pests such as the coffee leaf miner, Leucoptera coffeella (Lepidoptera: Lyonetiidae). However, the efficacy of different lacewing species in controlling L. coffeella needs to be evaluated before they are used in augmentative biological control programs. Here, laboratory experiments were conducted to investigate the effects of the L. coffeella developmental stage on the functional response of 3 species of green lacewings: Chrysoperla externa, Ceraeochrysa cincta, and Ceraeochrysa cornuta. The attack rate, handling time, and the number of prey attacked during 24 h with different densities (1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, and 64 individuals) of either L. coffeella larvae or pupae were recorded for each of the 3 lacewing species. Based on logistic regression models, all 3 predators showed a Type II functional response when consuming both larvae and pupae of L. coffeella. All 3 species also had similar attack rates (0.0091 larva/h and 0.0095 pupa/h), handling times (3.5 and 3.7 h for larvae and pupae, respectively), and estimated number of prey attacked during the observation period (6.9 larvae and 6.6 pupae) for L. coffeella larvae and pupae. Therefore, our laboratory studies show that the 3 green lacewings Ch. externa, Ce. cincta, and Ce. cornuta have potential for the biological control of L. coffeella, although these results need to be confirmed under field conditions. These findings have implications for the selection of lacewings for augmentative L. coffeella biocontrol.

Effect of mutation supply on population dynamics and trait evolution in an experimental microbial community.

Mutation supply can influence evolutionary and thereby ecological dynamics in important ways which have received little attention. Mutation supply influences features of population genetics, such as the pool of adaptive mutations, evolutionary pathways and importance of processes, such as clonal interference. The resultant trait evolutionary dynamics, in turn, can alter population size and species interactions. However, controlled experiments testing for the importance of mutation supply on rapid adaptation and thereby population and community dynamics have primarily been restricted to the first of these aspects. To close this knowledge gap, we performed a serial passage experiment with wild-type Pseudomonas fluorescens and a mutant with reduced mutation rate. Bacteria were grown at two resource levels in combination with the presence of a ciliate predator. A higher mutation supply enabled faster adaptation to the low-resource environment and anti-predatory defence. This was associated with higher population size at the ecological level and better access to high-recurrence mutational targets at the genomic level with higher mutation supply. In contrast, mutation rate did not affect growth under high-resource level. Our results demonstrate that intrinsic mutation rate influences population dynamics and trait evolution particularly when population size is constrained by extrinsic conditions.

Defensive shimmering responses in Apis dorsata are triggered by dark stimuli moving against a bright background.

Giant honeybees, including the open-nesting Asian giant honeybee Apis dorsata, display a spectacular collective defence behaviour - known as 'shimmering' - against predators, which is characterised by travelling waves generated by individual bees flipping their abdomens in a coordinated and sequential manner across the bee curtain. We examined whether shimmering is visually mediated by presenting moving stimuli of varying sizes and contrasts to the background (dark or light) in bright and dim ambient light conditions. Shimmering was strongest under bright ambient light, and its strength declined under dim light in this facultatively nocturnal bee. Apis dorsata shimmered only when presented with the darkest stimulus against a light background, but not when this condition was reversed (light stimulus against dark background). This response did not attenuate with repeated exposure to the stimuli, suggesting that shimmering behaviour does not undergo habituation. We suggest that this is an effective anti-predator strategy in open-nesting A. dorsata colonies which are exposed to high ambient light, as flying predators are more easily detected when they appear as dark moving objects against a bright sky. Moreover, the stimulus detection threshold (smallest visual angular size) is much smaller in this anti-predatory context (1.6-3.4 deg) than in the context of foraging (5.7 deg), indicating that ecological context affects the visual detection threshold.

Retrospective comparisons of competing demographic models give clarity from "messy" management on a Scottish grouse moor.

Retrospective comparison of predictive models that describe competing hypotheses regarding system function can shed light on regulatory mechanisms within the framework of adaptive resource management. We applied this approach to a 28-year study of red grouse (Lagopus lagopus scotica) in Scotland, with the aims of reducing uncertainty regarding important drivers of grouse population dynamics, and of evaluating the efficacy of using seasonal versus annual model assessments. We developed three sets of models that predicted pre-breeding and post-breeding grouse density, matching the timing of grouse counts on the ground. We updated conditions and management through time in the spirit of a real-time, adaptive management program and used a Bayesian model weight updating process to compare model predictions with empirical grouse densities. The first two model sets involved single annual updates from either pre-breeding or post-breeding counts; the third set was updated twice a year. Each model set comprised seven models representing increasingly complex hypotheses regarding potentially important drivers of grouse: the baseline model included weather and parasite effects on productivity, shooting losses and density-dependent overwinter survival; subsequent models incorporated the effect of habitat gain/loss (HAB), control of non-protected predators (NPP) and predation by protected hen harriers (Circus cyaneus, HH) and buzzards (Buteo buteo, BZ). The weight of evidence was consistent across model sets, settling within 10 years on the harrier (NPP + HH), buzzard (NPP + HH + BZ) and buzzard + habitat (NPP + HH + BZ + HAB) models, and downgrading the baseline + habitat, non-protected predator, and non-protected predator + habitat models. By the end of the study only the buzzard and buzzard + habitat models retained substantial weights, emphasizing the dynamical complexity of the system. Habitat inclusion failed to improve model predictions, implying that over the period of this study habitat quantity was unimportant in determining grouse abundance. Comparing annually and biannually assessed model sets, the main difference was in the baseline model, whose weight increased or remained stable when assessed annually, but collapsed when assessed biannually. Our adaptive modeling approach is suitable for many ecological situations in which a complex interplay of factors makes experimental manipulation difficult.