10-year analysis of human immunodeficiency virus incidence in first-time and repeat donors in Brazil.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Incidence in first-time and repeat blood donors is an important measure of transfusion-transmitted HIV infection (TT-HIV) risk. This study assessed HIV incidence over time at four large blood centres in Brazil. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Donations were screened and confirmed using serological assays for HIV from 2007 to 2016, and additionally screened by nucleic acid testing from 2011 forward. Limiting antigen (LAg) avidity testing was conducted on HIV seroreactive samples from first-time donors to classify whether an infection was recently acquired. We calculated incidence in first-time donors using the mean duration of recent infection and in repeat donors using classical methods. Time and demographic trends were assessed using Poisson regression. RESULTS: Over the 10-year period, HIV incidence in first-time donors was highest in Recife (45·1/100 000 person-years (105 py)) followed by São Paulo (32·2/105 py) and then Belo Horizonte (23·3/105 py), and in repeat donors was highest in Recife (33·2/105 py), Belo Horizonte (27·5/105 py) and São Paulo (17·0/105 py). Results from Rio de Janeiro were available from 2013 to 2016 with incidence in first-time donors of 35·9/105 py and repeat donors from 2011 to 2016 of 29·2/105 py. Incidence varied by other donor demographics. When incidence was considered in 2-year intervals, no significant trend was evident. Overall residual risk of TT-HIV was 5·46 and 7·41 per million units of pRBC and FFP transfused, respectively. CONCLUSION: HIV incidence in both first-time and repeat donors varied by region in Brazil. Clear secular trends were not evident.

HIV incidence in South African blood donors from 2012 to 2016: a comparison of estimation methods.

BACKGROUND: Measuring incidence is important for monitoring and maintaining the safety of the blood supply. Blood collected from repeat-donors has provided the opportunity to follow blood donors over time and has been used to estimate the incidence of viral infections. These incidence estimates have been extrapolated to first-time donors using the ratio of NAT yield cases in first-time versus repeat-donors. We describe a model to estimate incidence in first-time donors using the limiting antigen (LAg) avidity assay and compare its results with those from established models. METHODS: HIV-positive first-time donations were tested for recency using the LAg assay. Three models were compared; incidence estimated for (1) first-time donors using LAg avidity, (2) first-time and repeat-donors separately using the NAT yield window period (WP) model and (3) repeat-donors using the incidence/WP model. RESULTS: HIV incidence in first-time donors was estimated at 3·32 (CI 3·11, 3·55) and 3·81 (CI 3·07, 4·73) per 1000 PY using the LAg assay and NAT yield WP models, respectively. Incidence in repeat-donors was between 2·0- and 2·5-fold lower than in first-time donors estimated at 1·56 (CI 1·37, 1·77) and 1·94 (CI 1·86-2·01) per 1000 PY using the NAT yield/WP and incidence/WP models, respectively. CONCLUSION: Testing HIV-positive donations using the LAg assay provides a reliable method to estimate incidence in first-time donors for countries that collect the majority of blood from first-time donors and do not screen with NAT.

Direct comparison of three residual risk models for hepatitis B virus window period infections using updated input parameters.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Comparison of two models for estimating residual transfusion transmission risk by NAT screened window period (WP) donations in South African repeat donors gave identical results for HIV but not for HBV. In order to understand discrepant HBV modelling outcomes, the values of input parameters in three HBV WP risk models were reviewed and subsequently applied to the same South African screening data generated by HBsAg PRISM and two NAT assays (Ultrio and Ultrio Plus). Two of the models were also compared using individual donation (ID)-NAT screening data from different geographical regions. METHODS: Values of input parameters were derived from two published data sources and used in three risk models [(1) the incidence rate-WP risk day equivalent model, (2) the NAT yield WP ratio model and (3) the anti-HBc-negative HBsAg yield period ratio model] and subsequently applied to the same ID-NAT screening data. RESULTS: The HBV WP transmission risk in South African repeat donations during a one-year Ultrio Plus NAT screening period was estimated as 22, 43 and 17 per million, respectively, for the three models, as compared to 56, 117 and 48 per million for HBsAg PRISM screening. The approximate two-fold higher estimate calculated with the NAT yield WP ratio model was corroborated in repeat donations from three of four regions in a multi-regional study. When another set of model input values (with shorter viraemia periods and a higher proportion of acute occult infections) was applied to the South African screening data, the relative difference in risk estimates between the three models became smaller. CONCLUSIONS: Window period risk modelling for HBV is more complex than for HIV. Multiple factors affect the modelling outcomes. These include the values used for the length of transient HBsAg and HBV-DNA-positive phases, the proportion of acute occult and vaccine breakthrough infections and the assumption of random appearance of donors throughout the entire acute resolving infection phase. A substantial proportion of HBV WP NAT yields have very low viral load and lack donor follow-up data calling into question their definitive classification into the early acute (infectious) replication stage. Since these possible WP NAT yields most highly impact the NAT yield WP ratio model, we recommend relying on the more conservative estimates of the incidence rate-WP risk day equivalent model.

Modelling the risk of transfusion-transmitted syphilis: a reconsideration of blood donation testing strategies.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Donor syphilis testing began in the 1940s amidst widespread transfusion-transmitted syphilis (TTS). Since then, the introduction of penicillin, pre-donation screening questionnaires and improved storage conditions have contributed to reducing transmission risk. Consequently, universal testing may no longer be cost-effective. This study analysed alternative options for donor syphilis testing to determine the optimal strategy. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A model was developed using conservative parameter estimates for factors affecting TTS and 2009-2015 Australian donations to calculate risk outcomes (TTS infections, tertiary syphilis in recipients and transfusion-associated congenital syphilis) and cost-effectiveness of alternative testing strategies. The strategies modelled were as follows: universal testing, targeted-testing of high-risk groups (males ≤50 years old and first-time donors) and no testing. RESULTS: The estimated risk of TTS is one in 49·5 million transfusions for universal testing, one in 6 million for targeted-testing of males ≤50 years old, one in 4 million for targeted-testing of first-time donors and one in 2·8 million for no testing. For all strategies, the risk of tertiary and congenital syphilis is <1 in 100 million. Universal testing is the least cost-effective strategy with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) estimated at $538·5 million per disability-adjusted life year averted. CONCLUSION: Universal testing is not required to maintain the risk of TTS within tolerable limits and is estimated to greatly exceed acceptable ICERs for blood safety interventions. However, despite a strong economic and risk-based rationale, given the epidemiology of syphilis in Australia is changing, feedback from critical stakeholders is not currently supportive of reducing testing.

Impact of hepatitis E virus testing on the safety of blood components in Germany - results of a simulation study.

Hepatitis E virus (HEV) infections may be acquired through transfusion of blood components. As transfusion-transmitted infections mostly affect vulnerable individuals, measures to ensure the supply of safe blood components are under discussion. On the basis of the epidemiological situation in Germany, different testing strategy scenarios were investigated through simulation studies. Testing for HEV RNA by nucleic acid amplification technique (NAT) assays with a pool size of 96, and a 95% LoD of 20 IU/ml will result in an 80% reduction in expected HEV transmissions as well as of consequent chronic infections with subsequent severe complications.

Refining the risk estimate for transfusion-transmission of occult hepatitis B virus.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: We previously published a model to estimate the residual risk (RR) for occult hepatitis B infection (OBI) in the absence of universal anti-HBc testing. To incorporate new information on the epidemiology of OBI, we describe model refinements and estimate a more accurate HBV RR due to OBI in Australia. MATERIALS AND METHODS: In our original model, the OBI risk, p(OBI), was defined by the rate of 'non-detection' by the HBV DNA screening test in use, p(NAT non-detection), and the average infectivity of blood components from OBI donors, p(transmission). We revised the model by integrating three refinements: that donations with anti-HBs levels of >10 IU/l, or donations solely for manufactured plasma products, be excluded from the risk calculation, and an updated estimate of p(transmission). RESULTS: Refining our OBI RR model resulted in a more than 10-fold reduction in the reported RR risk to recipients from OBI in our donor population. Based on the use of a common data set, the mean OBI RR risk decreased from 1 in 374 354 donations (95% CI: 1 in 191 940-1 072 681) to 1 in 3 984 033 (95% CI: 1 in 1 146 188-65 268 257) for the refined model. CONCLUSION: Our model refinements provide a more realistic measure of the HBV RR in the donor population. Unlike the previous model, the new model demonstrates that the risk of HBV due to OBI in the Australian blood donor population is negligible, and further potentially cost-ineffective risk management strategies are not currently warranted.

Reconsideration of blood donation testing strategy for human T-cell lymphotropic virus in Australia.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Universal testing of blood donations for human T-cell lymphotropic virus (HTLV) in Australia may no longer be appropriate given the low prevalence of HTLV infection and the mitigating effect of universal leucodepletion for cellular components. This study aimed to determine the most appropriate HTLV testing strategy using the Risk-Based Decision-Making Framework for Blood Safety. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The risk of HTLV transfusion-transmission using three testing strategies (universal, new-donor and no testing) and cost-effectiveness of the first two strategies were assessed using adaptations of published mathematical models. RESULTS: The overall prevalence for 2004-2014 was three HTLV-positives per million donations. It was estimated that annually, universal testing incurred a cost of approximately AUD $3 million and prevented 83 HTLV-positive cellular components from being issued, and new-donor testing cost approximately $225 000 and prevented 81 components. The number of cases of transfusion-transmitted HTLV and HTLV-associated disease prevented per year by universal and new-donor testing was essentially equivalent. According to preset risk thresholds, the risk of transfusion-transmission was negligible for universal and new-donor testing, and minimal without testing. CONCLUSION: Transfusion-transmission of HTLV is a minimal risk in Australia even without testing. However, any revision of testing strategy must consider not only risk and cost-effectiveness, but also stakeholder, ethical and regulatory perspectives. Considering all relevant criteria, new-donor testing is judged the optimal strategy because it is able to achieve almost the same outcomes as universal testing, at a fraction of the cost.

Re-evaluating the residual risk of transfusion-transmitted Ross River virus infection.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Ross River virus (RRV) is an enveloped, RNA alphavirus in the same antigenic group as chikungunya virus. Australia records an annual average of 5000 laboratory-confirmed RRV infections. While RRV is currently geographically restricted to the Western Pacific, the capacity of arboviruses for rapid expansion is well established. The first case of RRV transfusion-transmission was recently described prompting a comprehensive risk assessment. MATERIALS AND METHODS: To estimate the RRV residual risk, we applied laboratory-confirmed RRV notifications to two published models. This modelling generated point estimates for the risk of viraemia in the donor population, the risk of collecting a viraemic donation and the predicted number of infected components. RESULTS: The EUFRAT model estimated the risk of infection in donors as one in 95 039 (one in 311 328 to one in 32 399) to one in 14 943 (one in 48 593 to one in 5094). The point estimate for collecting a RRV viraemic donation varied from one in 166 486 (one in 659 078 to one in 49 158) (annualized national risk) to one in 26 117 (one in 103 628 to one in 7729) (area of high transmission). The modelling predicted 8-11 RRV-infected labile blood components issued in Australia during a 1-year period. CONCLUSION: Considering the uncertainty in the modelled estimates, the unknown rate of RRV donor viraemia and the low severity of any recipient RRV infection, additional risk management for RRV in Australia will initially be restricted to strengthening the messaging to donors regarding prompt reporting of any postdonation illnesses.

Modeling complete removal of risk assessment questions in the USA predicts the risk of HIV exposure in blood recipients could increase despite the use of nucleic acid testing.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: The safety of the blood supply in a number of countries is achieved by interventions that include behaviour-based time-limited or indefinite deferrals and screening of donated units for transfusion-transmitted infections. The relatively high sensitivity of nucleic acid testing (NAT) used in blood donor screening has raised the question of whether such time-based deferrals can be eliminated in favour of individual risk assessment. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Data on the annual number of incident human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infections associated with various behaviours and on the performance characteristics of NAT applied to donor screening were used to model the number of potentially infected units that might escape detection in the worst-case scenario in which individual risk assessment was implemented, but was not effective as a screening tool, and donors did not otherwise self-select for lower risk. RESULTS: In the absence of effective individual risk-based screening or donor self-selection, the model predicts that in the United States, an additional 39 (95% CI 35-43) HIV-infected units would escape detection by nucleic acid testing, potentially capable of exposing approximately 68 (95% CI 61-75) individuals to the risk of HIV infection through the administration of prepared blood components. CONCLUSION: Despite some inherent uncertainty, the worst-case scenario of completely ineffective individual risk assessment, absence of donor self-selection and increased reliance on NAT for blood screening is estimated to be associated with an approximately fourfold increase in the risk of HIV exposure through transfusion in the United States.

The residual risk of transfusion-transmitted cytomegalovirus infection associated with leucodepleted blood components.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Cytomegalovirus poses a risk to transfusion safety as its transmission to an immunocompromised recipient may lead to significant clinical sequelae. Once infection is established, it is lifelong and generally asymptomatic. Strategies to reduce the risk of transfusion-transmitted CMV (TT-CMV) include donor serological testing and blood component leucodepletion to deplete the transmissible reservoir. We estimate the residual risk for non-CMV antibody screened, leucodepleted (LD-only) fresh blood components. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We established an approach to estimate the risk of TT-CMV under various scenarios. We estimated the probability of an infectious component, for both red cells and platelets, as a function of the observed WBC filter failure rate and the probability that such a unit was also contaminated with infectious virus. RESULTS: Using this model, the estimated combined residual risk of LD-only red cell and platelet units was very low, 1 in 13 575 000 (95%CI:1 in 1 344 167 000-1 in 1 730 000) as was the individual residual risk estimate for LD-only red cells, 1 in 7 790 000 (95%CI: 1 in 771 307 000-1 in 993 000) and LD-only platelets, where a zero risk was estimated (95%CI: 0-1 in 1 074 000). CONCLUSION: We describe a novel approach to assess the residual risk of LD-only components. This can be applied generally using local data. Our risk estimate for LD-only blood components in Australia is below the threshold of 1 in 1 million, generally considered negligible. This provides a useful indicator of the relative safety of LD-only components to assist clinical decisions when serologically screened inventory is unavailable.

Sexual risk behaviour and donor deferral in Europe.

One of the most controversial policies in blood transfusion worldwide is the permanent deferral from donating blood of men with sexual contacts to other men (MSM). This policy was implemented for safety reasons as sex between men is known to be a high risk factor for acquiring severe infectious diseases transmissible by blood transfusion. Sexual contacts among heterosexual persons may hold similar risks but a clear-cut discrimination between different individual risks is impossible. Nevertheless, the current blood donor deferral periods defined by European Union (EU) legislation depend on a distinction of different grades of risk with respect to sexual behaviour. Under the aegis of the Steering Committee on Blood Transfusion (CD-P-TS) of the Council of Europe (CoE), an international working group evaluated epidemiological and behavioural data, modelling studies on residual risk and spread of infections, and studies on adherence to donor selection criteria. The aim was to distinguish sexual behaviour of different risk categories. It was concluded, that existing data confirm that MSM and commercial sex workers (CSW) are groups at high risk. Any further grading lacks a scientific data base. Modelling studies indicate that adherence to deferral policies is of major relevance suggesting that good donor adherence may outweigh the small negative effects on blood safety postulated for changing from permanent to temporary deferral periods for high risk sexual behaviours. The fact that a considerable percentage of donors are MSM - despite the permanent deferral policy - demonstrates the need to increase donor understanding and adherence.

A method for estimating the residual risk of transfusion-transmitted HBV infection associated with occult hepatitis B virus infection in a donor population without universal anti-HBc screening.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: This report describes a method for estimating the risk of transfusion-transmitted HBV infection attributable to blood components from donors with occult hepatitis B virus infection (OBI) applicable where universal anti-HBc screening is not performed. MATERIALS AND METHODS: In the context of parallel HBsAg and individual donation HBV DNA testing, we developed a mathematical function p(OBI) to estimate the probability of failing to detect [p(NAT nondetection)] a potentially infectious [p(transmission)] donation from a donor with OBI. RESULTS: Among 1 312 451 donations tested for HBsAg and HBV DNA, 29 (from 17 anti-HBc reactive donors classified as OBI) were individual donation NAT negative, giving a p(NAT nondetection) of 2·2096 (95 CI: 1·538-3·173) × 10(-5) . To date, lookback on OBI donors has identified 35 (8·2%) recipients with evidence of current or past HBV infection among 427 tested recipients. After correcting for the background anti-HBc rate in recipients, this results in a p(transmission) of 0·0384 (0·0167-0·0601). The product, pOBI is 1 in 981 920 (95% CI: 437 181-3 223 701). When this is summed with the WP risk for the 2011-2012 period, the overall HBV residual risk estimate is 1 in 538 224 (95% CI: 209 732-1 552 443). CONCLUSION: We estimate the OBI residual risk in Australia is approximately 1 in 982 000 per unit transfused, and this risk represents 55% of the total HBV residual risk and is declining as consequence of ID-NAT identifying repeat donors with OBI.