If there had been no snus in Sweden: the impact of snus on mortality attributable to smoking.

In Sweden, there has been a massive transition from cigarette smoking to snus, the Swedish kind of low-toxicity oral tobacco. This product poses very little health risk compared to cigarettes, as illustrated by the fact that males in Sweden have Europe's lowest level of mortality attributable to smoking. The current investigation estimates how high the smoking-attributable mortality in Sweden would have been if there had been no snus in Sweden. It is made up by comparisons between observed Swedish data and two scenarios without snus: a group of comparable countries, and, a hypothetical Sweden with no snus use. Both comparisons suggest that around 3000 lives per year have been saved by the use of snus in Sweden.

The Greek smoking epidemic from a life-course perspective.

BACKGROUND: Smoking rates in Greece are the highest recorded among OECD countries, but the historical and life-course evolution of smoking patterns is largely unknown. The present paper addresses this gap. METHODS: We produce nationally representative life-course trajectories of smoking and related mortality of eight generations of Greek men and women. We estimate the smoking-mortality correlation conditional on several confounders and project the estimates forward. RESULTS: We show that smoking prevalence among Greek men has plateaued at >60% for all but the youngest generation. For women, smoking prevalence is relatively lower, lags by several generations and follows a hump-shaped pattern. Smoking-attributable mortality is currently peaking for men (nearing 40% of total deaths) and is rising for women. We estimate that it takes ~20 years of smoking to maximize the smoking-mortality correlation (at 0.48 for men and 0.32 for women). Based on this estimation, we forecast that mortality rates will begin falling within the current decade. CONCLUSIONS: The breadth of the Greek smoking epidemic has been high by international standards, reflecting the ineffective tobacco control efforts in the country. While smoking popularity fell during the Great Recession, policy vigilance is necessary to prevent a relapse once the economy recovers.

Variation in smoking attributable all-cause mortality across municipalities in Belgium, 2018: application of a Bayesian approach for small area estimations.

BACKGROUND: Smoking is one of the leading causes of preventable mortality and morbidity worldwide, with the European Region having the highest prevalence of tobacco smoking among adults compared to other WHO regions. The Belgian Health Interview Survey (BHIS) provides a reliable source of national and regional estimates of smoking prevalence; however, currently there are no estimates at a smaller geographical resolution such as the municipality scale in Belgium. This hinders the estimation of the spatial distribution of smoking attributable mortality at small geographical scale (i.e., number of deaths that can be attributed to tobacco). The objective of this study was to obtain estimates of smoking prevalence in each Belgian municipality using BHIS and calculate smoking attributable mortality at municipality level. METHODS: Data of participants aged 15 + on smoking behavior, age, gender, educational level and municipality of residence were obtained from the BHIS 2018. A Bayesian hierarchical Besag-York-Mollie (BYM) model was used to model the logit transformation of the design-based Horvitz-Thompson direct prevalence estimates. Municipality-level variables obtained from Statbel, the Belgian statistical office, were used as auxiliary variables in the model. Model parameters were estimated using Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA). Deviance Information Criterion (DIC) and Conditional Predictive Ordinate (CPO) were computed to assess model fit. Population attributable fractions (PAF) were computed using the estimated prevalence of smoking in each of the 589 Belgian municipalities and relative risks obtained from published meta-analyses. Smoking attributable mortality was calculated by multiplying PAF with age-gender standardized and stratified number of deaths in each municipality. RESULTS: BHIS 2018 data included 7,829 respondents from 154 municipalities. Smoothed estimates for current smoking ranged between 11% [Credible Interval 3;23] and 27% [21;34] per municipality, and for former smoking between 4% [0;14] and 34% [21;47]. Estimates of smoking attributable mortality constituted between 10% [7;15] and 47% [34;59] of total number of deaths per municipality. CONCLUSIONS: Within-country variation in smoking and smoking attributable mortality was observed. Computed estimates should inform local public health prevention campaigns as well as contribute to explaining the regional differences in mortality.

Changing contribution of smoking to the sex differences in life expectancy in Europe, 1950-2014.

This article provides a detailed and overarching illustration of the contribution of smoking to sex differences in life expectancy at birth (e0) in Europe, focusing on changes over time and differences between both European countries and European regions. For this purpose, the sex difference in e0 for 31 European countries over the 1950-2014 period was decomposed into a smoking- and a non-smoking-related part, using all-cause mortality data and indirectly estimated smoking-attributable mortality rates by age and sex, and a formal decomposition analysis. It was found that smoking-attributable mortality contributed, on average, 3 years (43.5%) to the 7-year life expectancy difference between women and men in 2014. This contribution, was largest in 1995, at 5.2 out of 9.0 years, and subsequently declined in parallel with the average sex difference in life expectancy. The average contribution of smoking-attributable mortality was especially large in North-Western Europe around 1975; in Southern Europe around 1985; and in Eastern Europe around 1990-1995, when smoking-attributable mortality reached maximum levels among men, but was still low among women. The observed parallel decline from 1995 onwards in the sex differences in e0 and the absolute contribution of smoking to this sex difference suggests that this recent decline in the sex difference in e0 can be almost fully explained by historical changes in sex differences in smoking, and, consequently, smoking-attributable mortality. In line with the progression of the smoking epidemic, the sex differences in life expectancy in Europe are expected to further decline in the future.

Cigarette Smoking and All-Cause and Cause-Specific Adult Mortality in the United States.

This study illuminates the association between cigarette smoking and adult mortality in the contemporary United States. Recent studies have estimated smoking-attributable mortality using indirect approaches or with sample data that are not nationally representative and that lack key confounders. We use the 1990-2011 National Health Interview Survey Linked Mortality Files to estimate relative risks of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for current and former smokers compared with never smokers. We examine causes of death established as attributable to smoking as well as additional causes that appear to be linked to smoking but have not yet been declared by the U.S. Surgeon General to be caused by smoking. Mortality risk is substantially elevated among smokers for established causes and moderately elevated for additional causes. We also decompose the mortality disadvantage among smokers by cause of death and estimate the number of smoking-attributable deaths for the U.S. adult population ages 35+, net of sociodemographic and behavioral confounders. The elevated risks translate to 481,887 excess deaths per year among current and former smokers compared with never smokers, 14 % to 15 % of which are due to the additional causes. The additional causes of death contribute to the health burden of smoking and should be considered in future studies of smoking-attributable mortality. This study demonstrates that smoking-attributable mortality must remain a top population health priority in the United States and makes several contributions to further underscore the human costs of this tragedy that has ravaged American society for more than a century.

Raising cigarette excise tax to reduce consumption in low-and middle-income countries of the Asia-Pacific region:a simulation of the anticipated health and taxation revenues impacts.

BACKGROUND: According to the World Health Organization (WHO), 80% of the world's smokers live in low- and middle-income countries. Moreover, more than half of the world's smoking-addicted population resides in the Asia-Pacific region. The reduction of tobacco consumption has thus become one of the major social policies in the region. This study investigates the effects of price increases on cigarette consumption, tobacco tax revenues and reduction in smoking-caused mortality in 22 low-income as well as middle-income countries in the Asia-Pacific region. METHODS: Using panel data from the 1999-2015 Euromonitor International, the World Bank and the World Health Organization, we applied fixed effects regression models of panel data to estimate the elasticity of cigarette prices and to simulate the effect of price fluctuations. RESULTS: Cigarette price elasticity was the highest for countries with a per capita Gross National Income (GNI) above US$6000 (China and Malaysia), and considerably higher for other economies in the region. The administered simulation shows that with an average annual cigarette price increase of 9.51%, the average annual cigarette consumption would decrease by 3.56%, and the average annual tobacco tax revenue would increase by 16.20%. The number of averted smoking-attributable deaths (SADs) would be the highest in China, followed by Indonesia and India. In total, over 17.96 million lives could be saved by tax increases. CONCLUSION: Excise tax increases have a significant effect on the reduction of smoking prevalence and the number of averted smoking-attributable deaths. Middle- and upper-middle income countries would be most affected by high-taxation policies.

Assessing the Likelihood and Magnitude of a Population Health Benefit Following the Market Introduction of a Modified-Risk Tobacco Product: Enhancements to the Dynamic Population Modeler, DPM(+1).

Researchers and those responsible for evaluating and implementing policies intended to reduce population harm must assess the potential for both intended and unintended consequences associated with those policies. Such assessments should be based on the combined dimensions of magnitude, and thus likelihood, of shifts in exposure patterns needed to produce a population benefit or harm, and magnitude of the expected population benefit or harm. In response to this assessment need, we provide a conceptual description of the dynamic population modeler, DPM(+1), as well as illustrative analyses that estimate the effects on all-cause mortality, life expectancy, and quality of life-adjusted life expectancy if exposure patterns in the population shift from a higher risk product (e.g., cigarettes) to a lower, or modified, risk tobacco product (MRTP) in specified ways. Estimates from these analyses indicate that, within a single birth cohort, switching completely from cigarette smoking to MRTP use is more likely to lead to a population-level survival benefit than initiating tobacco use with an MRTP instead of cigarettes. This is because tobacco initiation rarely occurs beyond young adulthood, whereas continuing smokers exist in all subsequent age categories, leading to a greater cumulative effect. In addition, complete switching to MRTP use among a small proportion of smokers in each age category offsets the survival deficit caused by unintended shifts in exposure patterns, such as MRTP initiation among never tobacco users followed by transitioning to cigarette smoking and/or cigarette smokers switching to MRTP use instead of quitting.

The effects of a rise in cigarette price on cigarette consumption, tobacco taxation revenues, and of smoking-related deaths in 28 EU countries-- applying threshold regression modelling.

BACKGROUND: European Union public healthcare expenditure on treating smoking and attributable diseases is estimated at over €25bn annually. The reduction of tobacco consumption has thus become one of the major social policies of the EU. This study investigates the effects of price hikes on cigarette consumption, tobacco tax revenues and smoking-caused deaths in 28 EU countries. METHODS: Employing panel data for the years 2005 to 2014 from Euromonitor International, the World Bank and the World Health Organization, we used income as a threshold variable and applied threshold regression modelling to estimate the elasticity of cigarette prices and to simulate the effect of price fluctuations. RESULTS: The results showed that there was an income threshold effect on cigarette prices in the 28 EU countries that had a gross national income (GNI) per capita lower than US$5418, with a maximum cigarette price elasticity of -1.227. The results of the simulated analysis showed that a rise of 10% in cigarette price would significantly reduce cigarette consumption as well the total death toll caused by smoking in all the observed countries, but would be most effective in Bulgaria and Romania, followed by Latvia and Poland. Additionally, an increase in the number of MPOWER tobacco control policies at the highest level of achievment would help reduce cigarette consumption. CONCLUSIONS: It is recommended that all EU countries levy higher tobacco taxes to increase cigarette prices, and thus in effect reduce cigarette consumption. The subsequent increase in tobacco tax revenues would be instrumental in covering expenditures related to tobacco prevention and control programs.

Tobacco smoking-attributable mortality in Kenya, 2012-2021.

INTRODUCTION: Tobacco smoking poses a significant risk for various diseases, including cardiovascular diseases, chronic respiratory diseases, and cancers. In Kenya, tobacco-related deaths contribute substantially to non-communicable disease mortality. This study aims to quantify the mortality attributed to tobacco smoking in Kenya from 2012 to 2021. METHODS: Employing a prevalence-based analysis model, the study utilized population attributable fraction (PAF) to estimate age-specific smoke attributable mortality (SAM) rates for individuals aged ≥35 years. Causes of death associated with tobacco use, including cancers, cardiovascular diseases, respiratory diseases, tuberculosis, and diabetes, were analyzed based on age, sex, and death records between 2012 and 2021. RESULTS: Over the study period, 60228 deaths were attributed to tobacco-related diseases, with an annual increase observed until 2016 and subsequent fluctuations. Respiratory diseases, diabetes mellitus, malignant cancers, tuberculosis, and cardiovascular diseases collectively accounted for 16.5% of deaths among individuals aged ≥35 years. Notable contributors were pneumonia and influenza (respiratory diseases), esophageal cancer (cancers), and cerebrovascular diseases (cardiovascular diseases). Of the observed deaths, 16.5% were attributed to smoking, with respiratory diseases (40.5%), malignant cancers (31.4%), tuberculosis (13%), cardiovascular diseases (8.9%), and diabetes mellitus (6.1%) contributing. Pneumonia and influenza, esophageal cancer, chronic airway obstruction, and tuberculosis were primary causes, comprising 70% of all SAM. CONCLUSIONS: Tobacco-related mortality is a significant public health concern in Kenya. Efforts should focus on preventing tobacco use and managing associated disease burdens. Smoking cessation initiatives and comprehensive tobacco control measures are imperative to mitigate the impact on population health.

Mortality attributable to smoking in Vietnamese men in 2008.

OBJECTIVE: Smoking prevalence among Vietnamese men is among the highest in the world. Our aim was to provide estimates of tobacco attributable mortality to support tobacco control policies. METHOD: We used the Peto-Lopez method using lung cancer mortality to derive a Smoking Impact Ratio (SIR) as a marker of cumulative exposure to smoking. SIRs were applied to relative risks from the Cancer Prevention Study, Phase II. Prevalence-based and hybrid methods, using the SIR for cancers and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and smoking prevalence for all other outcomes, were used in sensitivity analyses. RESULTS: When lung cancer was used to measure cumulative smoking exposure, 28% (95% uncertainty interval 24-31%) of all adult male deaths (>35 years) in Vietnam in 2008 were attributable to smoking. Lower estimates resulted from prevalence-based methods [24% (95% uncertainty interval 21-26%)] with the hybrid method yielding intermediate estimates [26% (95% uncertainty interval 23-28%)]. CONCLUSION: Despite uncertainty in these estimates of attributable mortality, tobacco smoking is already a major risk factor for death in Vietnamese men. Given the high current prevalence of smoking, this has important implications not only for preventing the uptake of tobacco but also for immediate action to adopt and enforce stronger tobacco control measures.

The prominence of smoking-related mortality among individuals with alcohol- or drug-use disorders.

INTRODUCTION AND AIMS: Even though individuals with substance-use disorders have a high prevalence of tobacco smoking, surprisingly little is known about smoking-related mortality in these populations. The current retrospective cohort study aims to address this gap. DESIGN AND METHODS: The study sample included cohorts of individuals hospitalised in California between 1990 and 2005 with alcohol- (n = 509 422), cocaine- (n = 35 276), opioid- (n = 53 172), marijuana- (n = 15 995) or methamphetamine-use (n = 36 717) disorders. Death records were linked to inpatient data. Age-, race- and sex-adjusted standardised mortality ratios (SMR) were generated for 19 smoking-related causes of death. RESULTS: Smoking-related conditions comprised 49% (79 188/163 191) of total deaths in the alcohol, 40% (1412/3570) in the cocaine, 39% (4285/11 091) in the opioid, 42% (554/1332) in the methamphetamine and 36% (1122/3095) in the marijuana cohorts. The SMRs for all smoking-linked diseases were: alcohol, 3.57 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 3.55 to 3.58); cocaine, 2.40 (95% CI = 2.39 to 2.41); opioid, 4.26 (95% CI = 4.24 to 4.27); marijuana, 3.73 (95% CI = 3.71 to 3.74); and methamphetamine, 2.58 (95% CI = 2.57 to 2.59). The SMRs for almost all of the 19 cause-specific smoking-related outcomes were elevated across cohorts. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS: Given the current findings, addressing tobacco smoking among persons with substance-use disorders should be a critical concern, especially given the heavy smoking-related mortality burden and the currently limited attention devoted to smoking in these populations. [Callaghan RC, Gatley JM, Sykes J, Taylor L. The prominence of smoking-related mortality among individuals with alcohol- or drug-use disorders. Drug Alcohol Rev 2018;37:97-105].

Fiscal Impact of Smoking Cessation in Thailand: A Government Perspective Cost-Benefit Analysis.

We evaluate the broader public economic consequences of investments in smoking cessation that change lifetime productivity, which can influence future government tax revenue and social transfer costs and health care spending. The analysis applies a government perspective framework for assessing the intergenerational relationships between morbidity and mortality and lifetime tax revenue and social transfers received. Applying smoking prevalence in Thailand, a cohort model was developed for smoker and former smokers to estimate impact on lifetime direct taxes and tobacco taxes paid. Age-specific earnings for males and wage appropriate tax rates were applied to estimate net taxes for smokers and former smokers. Introducing smoking cessation leads to lifetime public economic benefits of THB13 998 to THB43 356 per person depending on the age of introducing smoking cessation. Factoring in the costs of smoking cessation therapy, an average return on investment of 1.35 was obtained indicating fiscal surplus generated for government from the combined effect of increased tax revenues and of averting smoking-attributable health care costs.

Estimating the public economic consequences of introducing varenicline smoking cessation therapy in South Korea using a fiscal analytic framework.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Smoking gives rise to many cross-sectorial public costs and benefits for government. Costs arise from increased healthcare spending and work-related social benefits, while smoking itself provides significant revenue for government from tobacco taxes. To better understand the public economic impact of smoking and smoking cessation therapies, this study developed a government perspective framework for assessing smoking-attributable morbidity and mortality and associated public costs. This framework includes changes in lifetime tax revenue and health costs, as well as changes in tobacco tax revenue, from fewer smokers. METHODS: A modified generational accounting framework was developed to assess relationships between smoking-attributable morbidity and mortality and public economic consequences of smoking, including lifetime tax revenue gains/losses, government social transfers, and health spending. Based on the current prevalence of smoking in South Korean males, a cohort model was developed for smokers, former-smokers, and never-smokers. The model simulated the lifetime discounted fiscal transfers for different age cohorts in 5 year age bands, and the return on investment (ROI) from smoking cessation therapy. RESULTS: Former smokers are estimated to generate higher lifetime earnings and direct tax revenues and lower lifetime healthcare costs due to the reduction of smoking-attributable mortality and morbidity compared to smokers, even after accounting for reduced tobacco taxes paid. Based on the costs of public investments in varenicline, this study estimated a ROI from 1.4-1.7, depending on treatment age, with higher ROI in younger cohorts, with an average ROI of 1.6 for those aged less than 65. CONCLUSIONS: This analysis suggests that reductions in smoking can generate positive public economic benefits for government, even after accounting for lost tobacco tax revenues. The results described here are likely applicable to countries having similar underlying smoking prevalence, comparable taxation rates, and social benefit protection provided to individuals with smoking-related conditions.

The future of smoking-attributable mortality: the case of England & Wales, Denmark and the Netherlands.

AIMS: We formally estimate future smoking-attributable mortality up to 2050 for the total national populations of England & Wales, Denmark and the Netherlands, providing an update and extension of the descriptive smoking-epidemic model. METHODS: We used smoking prevalence and population-level lung cancer mortality data for England & Wales, Denmark and the Netherlands, covering the period 1950-2009. To estimate the future smoking-attributable mortality fraction (SAF) we: (i) project lung cancer mortality by extrapolating age-period-cohort trends, using the observed convergence of smoking prevalence and similarities in past lung cancer mortality between men and women as input; and (ii) add other causes of death attributable to smoking by applying a simplified version of the indirect Peto-Lopez method to the projected lung cancer mortality. FINDINGS: The SAF for men in 2009 was 19% (44 872 deaths) in England & Wales, 22% (5861 deaths) in Denmark and 25% (16 385 deaths) in the Netherlands. In our projections, these fractions decline to 6, 12 and 14%, respectively, in 2050. The SAF for women peaked at 14% (38 883 deaths) in 2008 in England & Wales, and is expected to peak in 2028 in Denmark (22%) and in 2033 in the Netherlands (23%). By 2050, a decline to 9, 17 and 19%, respectively, is foreseen. Different indirect estimation methods of the SAF in 2050 yield a range of 1-8% (England & Wales), 8-13% (Denmark) and 11-16% (the Netherlands) for men, and 7-16, 12-26 and 13-31% for women. CONCLUSIONS: From northern European data we project that smoking-attributable mortality will remain important for the future, especially for women. Whereas substantial differences between countries remain, the age-specific evolution of smoking-attributable mortality remains similar across countries and between sexes.

The benefits from complying with the framework convention on tobacco control: a SimSmoke analysis of 15 European nations.

INTRODUCTION: This article compares the predicted impact of tobacco tax increases alone and as part of a comprehensive tobacco control strategy on smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths (SADs) across 15 European countries. METHODS: Country-specific population, smoking prevalence and policy data with modified parameter values have been applied to the previously validated SimSmoke model for 10 high-income and 5 middle-income European nations. The impact of past and potential future policies is modelled. RESULTS: Models generally validated well across the 15 countries, and showed the impact of past policies. Without stronger future policies, 44 million lives would be lost due to smoking across the 15 study countries between 2011 and 2040, but effective policies could avert 7.7 million of those premature deaths. CONCLUSIONS: Results suggest that past policies have been effective in reducing smoking rates, but there is also a strong potential for future policies consistent with the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control. When specific taxes are increased to 70% of retail price, strong smoke-free air laws, youth access laws and marketing restrictions are enforced, stronger health warnings are implemented, and cessation treatment and media campaigns are supported, smoking prevalence and SADs will fall substantially in European countries.

Role of smoking in regional variation in mortality in Poland.

AIMS: We assess the effect of smoking on regional disparities in mortality in Poland and its contribution to the change in regional disparities during the last two decades. DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: We used population-level mortality data from the population registry for 379 Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics (NUTS)-4 Polish regions for 1991-93 and 2008-10. MEASUREMENTS: The importance of smoking was assessed by smoking-attributable mortality (SAM) derived using a simplified indirect Peto-Lopez method. Regional differences in age-standardized all-cause, smoking- and non-smoking-attributable mortality (NSAM) rates at ages 35 years and over were mapped, and spatial clustering (Moran's I) and coefficients of variation (CV) were estimated. The contribution of SAM to variation in all-cause mortality was assessed by variance decomposition and compared over time. FINDINGS: In 2008-10, all-cause and SAM rates were characterized by a similar pattern of spatial clustering (Moran's I > 0.44, P < 0.0001). For NSAM, a more random pattern with less regional clustering showed (Moran's I = 0.34, P < 0.0001). The contribution of smoking to regional variation was substantial [54%, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 44.9, 62.5 among men; 24.9%, 95% CI = 20.9, 29.1 among women], and compared with 1991-93, 27.5 percentage points lower for men and 6.3 percentage points higher for women. Smoking contributed to the divergence between the regions in all-cause mortality between 1991-93 and 2008-10 for men [increase in CV of SAM by 2% (0, 4%)], but not for women [decrease in CV of SAM by 15% (22, 10%)]. CONCLUSIONS: Differences in past smoking behaviour may largely explain the regional differences in all-cause mortality existing in 2008-10 in Poland, and its trends since 1991-1993.