Ensemble species distribution modeling and multilocus phylogeography provide insight into the spatial genetic patterns and distribution dynamics of a keystone forest species, Quercus glauca.

BACKGROUND: Forests are essential for maintaining species diversity, stabilizing local and global climate, and providing ecosystem services. Exploring the impact of paleogeographic events and climate change on the genetic structure and distribution dynamics of forest keystone species could help predict responses to future climate change. In this study, we combined an ensemble species distribution model (eSDM) and multilocus phylogeography to investigate the spatial genetic patterns and distribution change of Quercus glauca Thunb, a keystone of East Asian subtropical evergreen broad-leaved forest. RESULTS: A total of 781 samples were collected from 77 populations, largely covering the natural distribution of Q. glauca. The eSDM showed that the suitable habitat experienced a significant expansion after the last glacial maximum (LGM) but will recede in the future under a general climate warming scenario. The distribution centroid will migrate toward the northeast as the climate warms. Using nuclear SSR data, two distinct lineages split between east and west were detected. Within-group genetic differentiation was higher in the West than in the East. Based on the identified 58 haplotypes, no clear phylogeographic structure was found. Populations in the Nanling Mountains, Wuyi Mountains, and the southwest region were found to have high genetic diversity. CONCLUSIONS: A significant negative correlation between habitat stability and heterozygosity might be explained by the mixing of different lineages in the expansion region after LGM and/or hybridization between Q. glauca and closely related species. The Nanling Mountains may be important for organisms as a dispersal corridor in the west-east direction and as a refugium during the glacial period. This study provided new insights into spatial genetic patterns and distribution dynamics of Q. glauca.

Stratified dispersal and increasing genetic variation during the invasion of Central Europe by the western corn rootworm, Diabrotica virgifera virgifera.

Invasive species provide opportunities for investigating evolutionary aspects of colonization processes, including initial foundations of populations and geographic expansion. Using microsatellite markers and historical information, we characterized the genetic patterns of the invasion of the western corn rootworm (WCR), a pest of corn crops, in its largest area of expansion in Europe: Central and South-Eastern (CSE) Europe. We found that the invaded area probably corresponds to a single expanding population resulting from a single introduction of WCR and that gene flow is geographically limited within the population. In contrast to what is expected in classical colonization processes, an increase in genetic variation was observed from the center to the edge of the outbreak. Control measures against WCR at the center of the outbreak may have decreased effective population size in this area which could explain this observed pattern of genetic variation. We also found that small remote outbreaks in southern Germany and north-eastern Italy most likely originated from long-distance dispersal events from CSE Europe. We conclude that the large European outbreak is expanding by stratified dispersal, involving both continuous diffusion and discontinuous long-distance dispersal. This latter mode of dispersal may accelerate the expansion of WCR in Europe in the future.