Delayed TBI-Induced Neuronal Death in the Ipsilateral Hippocampus and Behavioral Deficits in Rats: Influence of Corticosterone-Dependent Survivorship Bias?

Acute and chronic corticosterone (CS) elevations after traumatic brain injury (TBI) may be involved in distant hippocampal damage and the development of late posttraumatic behavioral pathology. CS-dependent behavioral and morphological changes were studied 3 months after TBI induced by lateral fluid percussion in 51 male Sprague-Dawley rats. CS was measured in the background 3 and 7 days and 1, 2 and 3 months after TBI. Tests including open field, elevated plus maze, object location, new object recognition tests (NORT) and Barnes maze with reversal learning were used to assess behavioral changes in acute and late TBI periods. The elevation of CS on day 3 after TBI was accompanied by early CS-dependent objective memory impairments detected in NORT. Blood CS levels > 860 nmol/L predicted delayed mortality with an accuracy of 0.947. Ipsilateral neuronal loss in the hippocampal dentate gyrus, microgliosis in the contralateral dentate gyrus and bilateral thinning of hippocampal cell layers as well as delayed spatial memory deficits in the Barnes maze were revealed 3 months after TBI. Because only animals with moderate but not severe posttraumatic CS elevation survived, we suggest that moderate late posttraumatic morphological and behavioral deficits may be at least partially masked by CS-dependent survivorship bias.

Sample Selection Bias Due to Differential Mortality: A Supplementary Measure of Old-Age Poverty.

Traditional "head count" measures of poverty at advanced older ages understate the risk of falling into poverty because of survivorship bias due to the income-mortality gradient, which indicates that people in poverty have higher mortality rates than people with higher income. Survivorship bias is a form of sample selection bias. This paper presents a supplementary measure for poverty at older ages, based on an adaption of a model for correcting survivorship bias in rate of return data for mutual funds. Using U.S. longitudinal data from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) for 1996 and 2002-2012 for the same cohort, we develop a new estimate of poverty at older ages that suggests that traditional cross-sectional measures understate the risk of falling into poverty by roughly a quarter. This finding has important implications for social programs that relate to the causes and consequences of the selectivity bias.

Extinction and the temporal distribution of macroevolutionary bursts.

Phenotypic evolution through deep time is slower than expected from microevolutionary rates. This is the paradox of stasis. Previous models suggest stasis occurs because populations track adaptive peaks that remain relatively stable on million-year intervals, raising the equally perplexing question of why these large changes are so rare. Here, we consider the possibility that peaks can move more rapidly than populations can adapt, resulting in extinction. We model peak movement with explicit population dynamics, parameterized with published microevolutionary estimates. Allowing extinction greatly increases the parameter space of peak movements that yield the appearance of stasis observed in real data through deep time. Extreme peak displacements, regardless of their frequency, will rarely result in an equivalent degree of trait evolution because of extinction. Thus, larger peak displacements will rarely be inferred using trait data from extant species or observed in fossil records. Our work highlights population ecology as an important contributor to macroevolutionary dynamics, presenting an alternative perspective on the paradox of stasis, where apparent constraint on phenotypic evolution in deep time reflects our restricted view of the subset of earth's lineages that were fortunate enough to reside on relatively stable peaks.

A Re-Evaluation of Chironomid Deformities as an Environmental Stress Response: Avoiding Survivorship Bias and Testing Noncontaminant Biological Factors.

Larval deformities have been observed in chironomids, and are thought to be associated with aquatic contaminant exposure. However, in laboratory assays, deformities have not been linked with contaminants in the absence of potential confounding variables including mortality, which introduces a survivorship bias. There is also a paucity of data on noncontaminant causes. In addition, power analyses are rarely undertaken, meaning that effect sizes detectable are usually uncertain. We therefore aimed to clarify factors associated with deformities, by running survivorship bias-free (i.e., sublethal) assays, assessing contaminant (copper and imidacloprid) and noncontaminant (malnutrition) stressors, and considering natural biological (metamorphosis) factors in Chironomus tepperi. We included a posteriori power analyses for all tests. Our assays found no significant association between tested factors and deformity rate. Power analyses indicated that the stressor experiment had moderate power to detect deformity effects. The metamorphosis assay had relatively lower power (due to an unexpectedly high control deformity rate), highlighting the importance of power tests in these types of evaluations. These results, in conjunction with others recently published, raise doubts as to the causal effects of environmental stressors on deformity incidence. By avoiding survivorship bias, and by testing noncontaminant factors and statistical power, we present a more holistic methodology, to resolve ongoing uncertainty in this area. We also discuss possible future directions for chironomid deformity research, and concerns regarding survivorship bias in ecotoxicology. Environ Toxicol Chem 2019;38:1658-1667. © 2019 SETAC.

History is written by the victors: The effect of the push of the past on the fossil record.

Survivorship biases can generate remarkable apparent rate heterogeneities through time in otherwise homogeneous birth-death models of phylogenies. They are a potential explanation for many striking patterns seen in the fossil record and molecular phylogenies. One such bias is the "push of the past": clades that survived a substantial length of time are likely to have experienced a high rate of early diversification. This creates the illusion of a secular rate slow-down through time that is, rather, a reversion to the mean. An extra effect increasing early rates of lineage generation is also seen in large clades. These biases are important but relatively neglected influences on many aspects of diversification patterns in the fossil record and elsewhere, such as diversification spikes after mass extinctions and at the origins of clades; they also influence rates of fossilization, changes in rates of phenotypic evolution and even molecular clocks. These inevitable features of surviving and/or large clades should thus not be generalized to the diversification process as a whole without additional study of small and extinct clades, and raise questions about many of the traditional explanations of the patterns seen in the fossil record.