Can an introduced predator select for adaptive sex allocation?

Most species produce equal numbers of sons and daughters, and sex differences in survival after parental care do not usually affect this pattern. Temporary overproduction of the scarcer sex can be adaptive when generations overlap, the sexes differ in life-history expectations, and parents can anticipate future mating opportunities. However, an alternative strategy of maximizing the competitiveness of the more abundant sex in these circumstances remains unexplored. We develop theory showing how mothers can maximize reproductive value when future mate competition will be high by producing more sons in the advantageous early hatching positions within their broods. Our model for optimal birth order was supported by long-term data of offspring sex in a parrot facing catastrophic female mortality caused by introduced predators. Swift parrots (Lathamus discolor) suffer high female mortality due to introduced sugar gliders (Petaurus breviceps) creating fluctuating male-biased adult sex ratios. Offspring hatched early within broods fledged in better condition, and in support of our model were more likely to be male in years with higher adult female mortality. We found a highly significant rank-order correlation between observed and predicted birth sex ratios. Our study shows the potential for mothers to maximize reproductive value via strategic biases in offspring sex depending on the advantages conferred by birth order and the predictability of future mate competition. Our long-term data support the predictions and appear to suggest that sex allocation strategies may evolve surprisingly quickly when anthropogenic pressures on populations are severe.

An Empirical and Mechanistic Explanation of Abundance-Occupancy Relationships for a Critically Endangered Nomadic Migrant.

The positive abundance-occupancy relationship (AOR) is a pervasive pattern in macroecology. Similarly, the association between occupancy (or probability of occurrence) and abundance is also usually assumed to be positive and in most cases constant. Examples of AORs for nomadic species with variable distributions are extremely rare. Here we examined temporal and spatial trends in the AOR over 7 years for a critically endangered nomadic migrant that relies on dynamic pulses in food availability to breed. We predicted a negative temporal relationship, where local mean abundances increase when the number of occupied sites decreases, and a positive relationship between local abundances and the probability of occurrence. We also predicted that these patterns are largely attributable to spatiotemporal variation in food abundance. The temporal AOR was significantly negative, and annual food availability was significantly positively correlated with the number of occupied sites but negatively correlated with abundance. Thus, as food availability decreased, local densities of birds increased, and vice versa. The abundance-probability of occurrence relationship was positive and nonlinear but varied between years due to differing degrees of spatial aggregation caused by changing food availability. Importantly, high abundance (or occupancy) did not necessarily equate to high-quality habitat and may be indicative of resource bottlenecks or exposure to other processes affecting vital rates. Our results provide a rare empirical example that highlights the complexity of AORs for species that target aggregated food resources in dynamic environments.

Influence of molecular marker type on estimating effective population size and other genetic parameters in a critically endangered parrot.

Genetics is a fast-moving field, and for conservation practitioners or ecologists, it can be bewildering. The choice of marker used in studies is fundamental; in the literature, preference has recently shifted from microsatellites to single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) loci. Understanding how marker type affects estimates of population genetic parameters is important in the context of conservation, especially because the accuracy of estimates has a bearing on the actions taken to protect threatened species. We compare parameter estimates between seven microsatellites, 3761 SNP loci, and a random subset of 100 SNPs for the exact same 324 individual swift parrots, Lathamus discolor, and also use 457 additional samples from subsequent years to compare SNP estimates. Both marker types estimated a lower H O than H E. We show that microsatellites and SNPs mainly indicate a lack of spatial genetic structure, except when a priori collection locations were used on the SNP data in a discriminant analysis of principal components (DAPC). The 100-SNP subset gave comparable results to when the full dataset was used. Estimates of effective population size (N e) were comparable between markers when the same individuals were considered, but SNPs had narrower confidence intervals. This is reassuring because conservation assessments that rely on population genetic estimates based on a few microsatellites are unlikely to be nullified by the general shift toward SNPs in the literature. However, estimates between markers and datasets varied considerably when only adult samples were considered; hence, including samples of all age groups is recommended to be used when available. The estimated N e was higher for the full SNP dataset (2010-2019) than the smaller comparison data (2010-2015), which might be a better reflection of the species status. The lower precision of microsatellites may not necessarily be a barrier for most conservation applications; however, SNPs will improve confidence limits, which may be useful for practitioners.