Spatial prioritization for widespread invasive species control: Trade-offs between current impact and future spread.

Spatially explicit prioritization of invasive species control is a complex issue, requiring consideration of trade-offs between immediate and future benefits. This study aimed to prioritize management efforts to account for current and future threats from widespread invasions and examine the strength of the trade-off between these different management goals. As a case study, we identified spatially explicit management priorities for the widespread invasion of introduced willow into riparian and wetland habitats across a 102,145-km2 region in eastern Australia. In addition to targeting places where willow threatens biodiversity now, a second set of management goals was to limit reinfestation and further spread that could occur via two different mechanisms (downstream and by wind). A model of likely willow distribution across the region was combined with spatial data for biodiversity (native vegetation, threatened species and communities), ecological conditions, management costs, and two potential dispersal layers. We used systematic conservation planning software (Zonation) to prioritize where willow management should be focussed across more than 100,000 catchments for a range of different scenarios that reflected different weights between management goals. For willow invasion, we found that we could prioritize willow management to reduce the future threat of dispersal downstream with little reduction in the protection of biodiversity. However, accounting for future threats from wind dispersal resulted in a stronger trade-off with protection of threatened biodiversity. The strongest trade-off was observed when both dispersal mechanisms were considered together. This study shows that considering current and future goals together offers the potential to substantially improve conservation outcomes for invasive species management. Our approach also informs land managers about the relative trade-offs among different management goals under different control scenarios, helping to make management decisions more transparent. This approach can be used for other widespread invasive species to help improve invasive species management decisions.

Anticipating anthropogenic threats in acquiring new protected areas.

Biodiversity continues to decline despite protected area expansion and global conservation commitments. Biodiversity losses occur in existing protected areas, yet common methods used to select protected areas ignore postimplementation threats that reduce effectiveness. We developed a conservation planning framework that considers the ongoing anthropogenic threats within protected areas when selecting sites and the value of planning for costly threat-mitigating activities (i.e., enforcement) at the time of siting decisions. We applied the framework to a set of landscapes that contained the range of possible correlations between species richness and threat. Accounting for threats and implementing enforcement activities increased benefits from protected areas without increasing budgets. Threat information was valuable in conserving more species per spending level even without enforcement, especially on landscapes with randomly distributed threats. Benefits from including threat information and enforcement were greatest when human threats peaked in areas of high species richness and were lowest where human threats were negatively associated with species richness. Because acquiring information on threats and using threat-mitigating activities are costly, our findings can guide decision-makers regarding the settings in which to pursue these planning steps.

Anticipación de las amenazas antropogénicas durante la adquisición de áreas protegidas nuevas Resumen La biodiversidad sigue declinando a pesar de la expansión de áreas protegidas y los compromisos mundiales con la conservación. La pérdida de la biodiversidad ocurre en las áreas protegidas existentes, y todavía los métodos comunes usados para seleccionar las áreas protegidas ignoran las amenazas posteriores a la implementación, las cuales reducen la efectividad. Desarrollamos un marco de planeación de la conservación que considera las amenazas antropogénicas actuales dentro de las áreas protegidas durante la selección de sitios y el valor de la planeación de actividades mitigantes costosas, como la aplicación, al momento de decidir. Aplicamos nuestro marco a un conjunto de paisajes que comprende el rango de correlaciones posibles entre las amenazas y la riqueza de especies. Si consideramos las amenazas y la implementación de actividades de aplicación, los beneficios de las áreas protegidas incrementan sin incrementar el presupuesto. La información sobre las amenazas fue importante para la conservación de especies por nivel de gasto incluso sin la aplicación, especialmente en paisajes con amenazas distribuidas de forma azarosa. Los beneficios de incluir la información sobre las amenazas y la aplicación fueron mayores cuando las amenazas humanas llegaron a su tope en áreas con gran riqueza de especies y alcanzaron su punto más bajo cuando las amenazas humanas estaban asociadas negativamente con la riqueza de especies. Ya que es costoso adquirir información sobre las amenazas y mitigar las amenazas con actividades, nuestros descubrimientos pueden informar a los tomadores de decisiones con respecto al entorno para seguir los pasos de la planeación.

Strengths and complementarity of systematic conservation planning and key biodiversity area approaches for spatial planning.

Developing biodiversity-inclusive spatial plans at a national level is the focus of Target 1 of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (KMGBF). There are 2 general approaches to identifying areas of value for biodiversity plans: criteria-based, such as the Key Biodiversity Areas (KBA) process, and systematic conservation planning (SCP) approaches, which apply complementarity to efficiently achieve specific quantitative targets. We examined the benefits of both approaches and considered how the KBA approach can best complement SCP. We reviewed 200 papers articles that applied SCP to real-world data with the Marxan conservation design software. Our review showed that targets for biodiversity elements are poorly selected in many SCP publications, with more than 75% of the studies applying uniform percentage target amounts to planning elements. Uniform targets favor more widespread species and ecosystems that are likely to be more common and less important for conservation. The strengths and complementarities of KBA and SCP approaches were reviewed and we identified the elements from both approaches that should be considered for spatial planning to achieve Target 1 in the KMGBF. In particular, the global approach of KBAs (i.e., identifying sites of global significance for species or ecosystems) better complements SCP, which often has a national or subnational focus. The KMGBF will fail if conservation of globally significant sites is not targeted and these sites are not incorporated in national spatial planning.

Fortalezas y complementariedad de la planeación sistemática de la conservación y el enfoque de áreas clave de biodiversidad para la planeación espacial Resumen El desarrollo de planes espaciales que incluyan la biodiversidad a escala nacional es el objetivo 1 del Marco Mundial de Biodiversidad Kunming­Montreal (KMGBF). Existen dos enfoques generales para identificar áreas de valor para los planes de biodiversidad: el basado en criterios, como el proceso de Áreas Clave para la Biodiversidad (ACB), y los enfoques de planificación sistemática de la conservación (PSC), que aplican la complementariedad para alcanzar eficazmente objetivos cuantitativos específicos. Analizamos las ventajas de ambos enfoques y estudiamos cómo el enfoque ACB puede complementar mejor la PSC. Revisamos 200 artículos que aplicaban el PSC a datos del mundo real con el software de diseño de conservación Marxan. Nuestra revisión mostró que las metas para los elementos de biodiversidad están mal seleccionadas en muchas publicaciones de PSC, con más del 75% de los estudios con cantidades porcentuales uniformes de metas a los elementos de planificación. Los objetivos uniformes favorecen a las especies y ecosistemas más extendidos que probablemente son más comunes y menos importantes para la conservación. Revisamos las fortalezas y las complementariedades de los enfoques ACB y PSC e identificamos los elementos de ambos enfoques que deben considerarse en la planificación espacial para alcanzar la meta 1 del KMGBF. En concreto, el enfoque global de las ACB (es decir, la identificación de lugares de importancia mundial para las especies o los ecosistemas) complementa mejor el PSC, que suele tener un enfoque nacional o subnacional. El KMGBF fracasará si no se tiene como objetivo la conservación de los lugares de importancia mundial y si estos lugares no se incorporan a la planificación espacial nacional.

Systematic conservation planning considering ecosystem services can optimize the conservation system in the Qinling-Daba Mountains.

Protected area are the cornerstone of biodiversity and ecosystem service conservation at the local, regional, and global levels. In 2019, China proposed the establishment of a nature reserve system (NRS)centered on national parks, integrating and improving various existing protected areas. This study focuses on the Qinling‒Daba Mountains, an area crucial for both biodiversity and ecosystem services. Through assessments of carbon storage (CS), water yield (WY), soil conservation (SC), and habitat quality (HQ), different conservation scenarios are considered in the context of Systematic conservation planning (SCP). An optimization scheme for the NRS in the Qinling-Daba Mountains is proposed, incorporating ecosystem services and comparing them with the existing system. Research indicates that the main protected areas are concentrated in the Min Mountain‒Motian Mountain‒Longmen Mountain region, the central Qinling region, and the Shennongjia‒Daba Mountain region. Compared with the original system, the area of protected regions in the NRS expanded by 52,000 km2 after the SCP scheme was incorporated. The number of patches decreased to 50, and the patch density reduced from 2.1 × 10-4(/100 ha) to 1.7 × 10-4(/100 ha), thereby reducing the fragmentation of the conservation system. Additionally, the optimized scheme achieved a conservation ratio of over 30% for CS, WY, SC, and HQ, with the conservation efficiency for WY and HQ increasing by 0.18 and 0.22, respectively. The study results provide support for optimizing the Qinling-Daba Mountains NRS and offer a reference for constructing NRSs in other regions. Considering ecosystem services in the optimization of the NRS helps enhance the supply capacity of ecological products, maintain national ecological security, and achieve harmonious coexistence and sustainable development between humans and nature.

Strategic restoration planning for land birds in the Colorado River Delta, Mexico.

Ecological restoration is an essential strategy for mitigating the current biodiversity crisis, yet restoration actions are costly. We used systematic conservation planning principles to design an approach that prioritizes restoration sites for birds and tested it in a riparian forest restoration program in the Colorado River Delta. Restoration goals were to maximize the abundance and diversity of 15 priority birds with a variety of habitat preferences. We built abundance models for priority birds based on the current landscape, and predicted bird distributions and relative abundances under a scenario of complete riparian forest restoration throughout our study area. Then, we used Zonation conservation planning software to rank this restored landscape based on core areas for all priority birds. The locations with the highest ranks represented the highest priorities for restoration and were located throughout the river reach. We optimized how much of the available landscape to restore by simulating restoration of the top 10-90% of ranked sites in 10% intervals. We found that total diversity was maximized when 40% of the landscape was restored, and mean relative abundance was maximized when 80% of the landscape was restored. The results suggest that complete restoration is not optimal for this community of priority birds and restoration of approximately 60% of the landscape would provide a balance between maximum relative abundance and diversity. Subsequent planning efforts will combine our results with an assessment of restoration costs to provide further decision support for the restoration-siting process. Our approach can be applied to any landscape-scale restoration program to improve the return on investment of limited economic resources for restoration.

A metric-based framework for climate-smart conservation planning.

Climate change is already having profound effects on biodiversity, but climate change adaptation has yet to be fully incorporated into area-based management tools used to conserve biodiversity, such as protected areas. One main obstacle is the lack of consensus regarding how impacts of climate change can be included in spatial conservation plans. We propose a climate-smart framework that prioritizes the protection of climate refugia-areas of low climate exposure and high biodiversity retention-using climate metrics. We explore four aspects of climate-smart conservation planning: (1) climate model ensembles; (2) multiple emission scenarios; (3) climate metrics; and (4) approaches to identifying climate refugia. We illustrate this framework in the Western Pacific Ocean, but it is equally applicable to terrestrial systems. We found that all aspects of climate-smart conservation planning considered affected the configuration of spatial plans. The choice of climate metrics and approaches to identifying refugia have large effects in the resulting climate-smart spatial plans, whereas the choice of climate models and emission scenarios have smaller effects. As the configuration of spatial plans depended on climate metrics used, a spatial plan based on a single measure of climate change (e.g., warming) will not necessarily be robust against other measures of climate change (e.g., ocean acidification). We therefore recommend using climate metrics most relevant for the biodiversity and region considered based on a single or multiple climate drivers. To include the uncertainty associated with different climate futures, we recommend using multiple climate models (i.e., an ensemble) and emission scenarios. Finally, we show that the approaches we used to identify climate refugia feature trade-offs between: (1) the degree to which they are climate-smart, and (2) their efficiency in meeting conservation targets. Hence, the choice of approach will depend on the relative value that stakeholders place on climate adaptation. By using this framework, protected areas can be designed with improved longevity and thus safeguard biodiversity against current and future climate change. We hope that the proposed climate-smart framework helps transition conservation planning toward climate-smart approaches.

Comparing spatial conservation prioritization methods with site- versus spatial dependency-based connectivity.

Larval dispersal is an important component of marine reserve networks. Two conceptually different approaches to incorporate dispersal connectivity into spatial planning of these networks exist, and it is an open question as to when either is most appropriate. Candidate reserve sites can be selected individually based on local properties of connectivity or on a spatial dependency-based approach of selecting clusters of strongly connected habitat patches. The first acts on individual sites, whereas the second acts on linked pairs of sites. We used a combination of larval dispersal simulations representing different seascapes and case studies of biophysical larval dispersal models in the Coral Triangle region and the province of Southeast Sulawesi, Indonesia, to compare the performance of these 2 methods in the spatial planning software Marxan. We explored the reserve design performance implications of different dispersal distances and patterns based on the equilibrium settlement of larvae in protected and unprotected areas. We further assessed different assumptions about metapopulation contributions from unprotected areas, including the case of 100% depletion and more moderate scenarios. The spatial dependency method was suitable when dispersal was limited, a high proportion of the area of interest was substantially degraded, or the target amount of habitat protected was low. Conversely, when subpopulations were well connected, the 100% depletion was relaxed, or more habitat was protected, protecting individual sites with high scores in metrics of connectivity was a better strategy. Spatial dependency methods generally produced more spatially clustered solutions with more benefits inside than outside reserves compared with site-based methods. Therefore, spatial dependency methods potentially provide better results for ecological persistence objectives over enhancing fisheries objectives, and vice versa. Different spatial prioritization methods of using connectivity are appropriate for different contexts, depending on dispersal characteristics, unprotected area contributions, habitat protection targets, and specific management objectives. Comparación entre los métodos de priorización de la conservación espacial con sitio y la conectividad espacial basada en la dependencia.

La dispersión larval es un componente importante de las redes de reservas marinas. Existen dos estrategias conceptualmente distintas para incorporar la conectividad de la dispersión en la planeación espacial de estas redes y es una pregunta abierta cuándo alguna de las dos es la más apropiada. Los sitios candidatos a reserva pueden ser seleccionados individualmente con base en las propiedades locales de la conectividad o en la estrategia espacial basada en la dependencia que consiste en seleccionar grupos de fragmentos de hábitat con un vínculo fuerte. La primera estrategia actúa sobre sitios individuales, mientras que la segunda actúa sobre pares de sitios vinculados. Usamos una combinación de simulaciones de dispersión larval que representaban a diferentes paisajes marinos y estudios de caso de modelos biofísicos de dispersión larval en la región del Triángulo de Coral y en la provincia de Sulawesi Sudoriental, Indonesia, para comparar el desempeño de estos dos métodos en el software de planeación espacial Marxan. Exploramos las implicaciones del desempeño del diseño de la reserva de diferentes distancias y patrones de dispersión basados en el establecimiento del equilibrio de larvas en las áreas protegidas y sin protección. Además, analizamos las suposiciones sobre las contribuciones metapoblacionales de las áreas sin protección, incluyendo el caso de la reducción al 100% y escenarios más moderados. El método de la dependencia espacial fue adecuado cuando la dispersión estuvo limitada, una proporción elevada del área de interés estaba sustancialmente degradada o era baja la cantidad meta de hábitat protegido. Al contrario, cuando las subpoblaciones estaban bien conectadas, la reducción al 100% estuvo relajada, o si una mayor parte del hábitat estaba protegido, la protección de los sitios individuales con altos puntajes en las medidas de conectividad fue una mejor estrategia. Los métodos de dependencia espacial generalmente produjeron soluciones con una agrupación más espacial y con más beneficios dentro que fuera de las reservas en comparación con los métodos basados sitios. Por lo tanto, los métodos de dependencia espacial tienen el potencial de proporcionar mejores resultados para los objetivos de persistencia ecológica por encima de los objetivos de mejora de las pesquerías, y viceversa. Los diferentes métodos de priorización espacial que usan la conectividad son apropiados para contextos diferentes, dependiendo de las características de dispersión, las contribuciones del área sin protección, las metas de protección del hábitat y los objetivos específicos del manejo.

Mapping the biodiversity conservation gaps in the East China sea.

Being one of the most productive China seas, the East China Sea is facing the challenge of unprecedented biodiversity loss and habitat degradation under the dual pressure of anthropogenic disturbance and climate change. Although marine protected areas (MPAs) are considered an effective conservation tool, it remains unclear whether existing MPAs adequately protect marine biodiversity. To investigate this issue, we first constructed a maximum entropy model to predict the distributions of 359 threatened species and identified its species richness hotspots in the East China Sea. Then we identified priority conservation areas (PCAs1) under different protection scenarios. Since the actual conservation in the East China Sea is far from the goals proposed by Convention on Biological Diversity, we calculated a more realistic conservation goal by quantifying the relationship between the percentage of protected areas in the East China Sea and the average proportion of habitats covered for all species. Finally, we mapped conservation gaps by comparing the PCAs under the proposed goal and existing MPAs. Our results showed that these threatened species were very heterogeneously distributed, and their abundance was highest at low latitudes and in nearshore areas. The identified PCAs were distributed mainly in nearshore areas, especially in the Yangtze River estuary and along the Taiwan Strait. Based on the current distribution of threatened species, we suggest a minimum conservation goal of 20.4% of the total area of the East China Sea. Only 8.8% of the recommended PCAs are currently within the existing MPAs. We recommend expanding the MPAs in six areas to achieve the minimum conservation target. Our findings provide a solid scientific reference and a reasonable short-term target for China to realize the vision of protecting 30% of its oceans by 2030.

4D marine conservation networks: Combining 3D prioritization of present and future biodiversity with climatic refugia.

Given the accelerating rate of biodiversity loss, the need to prioritize marine areas for protection represents a major conservation challenge. The three-dimensionality of marine life and ecosystems is an inherent element of complexity for setting spatial conservation plans. Yet, the confidence of any recommendation largely depends on shifting climate, which triggers a global redistribution of biodiversity, suggesting the inclusion of time as a fourth dimension. Here, we developed a depth-specific prioritization analysis to inform the design of protected areas, further including metrics of climate-driven changes in the ocean. Climate change was captured in this analysis by considering the projected future distribution of >2000 benthic and pelagic species inhabiting the Mediterranean Sea, combined with climatic stability and heterogeneity metrics of the seascape. We identified important areas based on both biological and climatic criteria, where conservation focus should be given in priority when designing a three-dimensional, climate-smart protected area network. We detected spatially concise, conservation priority areas, distributed around the basin, that protected marine areas almost equally across all depth zones. Our approach highlights the importance of deep sea zones as priority areas to meet conservation targets for future marine biodiversity, while suggesting that spatial prioritization schemes, that focus on a static two-dimensional distribution of biodiversity data, might fail to englobe both the vertical properties of species distributions and the fine and larger-scale impacts associated with climate change.

Spatial heterogeneity and temporal stability characterize future climatic refugia in Mediterranean Europe.

Climate plays a major role in shaping biodiversity patterns over time and space, with ongoing changes leading to the reorganization of ecosystems, which challenges conservation initiatives. Identifying areas that could serve as possible climate change refugia for future biodiversity is, thus, critical for both conservation and management. Here, we identify potential future climatic refugia within the Euro-Mediterranean biome, which is a global biodiversity hotspot, while accounting for multiple emission climate change projections over the next 50 years. We developed two metrics of climatic variability: temporal stability and spatial heterogeneity. We then used a systematic conservation planning approach to identify climate-based priority areas. While we used a climate-based, species-neutral methodology, we deliberately implemented low climatic velocity thresholds, so that the identified climatic refugia would even be compatible with the needs of species with low dispersal capacity, such as plants. Our projections showed that future climatic refugia would be more frequently observed in mid-altitudes, for gradients with steep elevations, and mainly in the eastern part of the Euro-Mediterranean biome, with possible conflicts with existing land uses and future conservation implications. Climatic, land use, and topography results indicated that only a limited number of refugia would be hosted by high elevation habitats (>1500 m), raising possible concerns about the biodiversity of Mediterranean mountain regions. Our analyses show that the current network of protected areas captures future climatic refugia disproportionally, despite their importance for safeguarding present and future biodiversity in the Mediterranean. Key climatic refugia could limit the impacts of future climate change on biodiversity in mid-altitude and mountainous regions, and should be included in management guidelines for a climate-ready conservation design in the Mediterranean biome.

Developing fine-grained nationwide predictions of valuable forests using biodiversity indicator bird species.

The use of indicator species in forest conservation and management planning can facilitate enhanced preservation of biodiversity from the negative effects of forestry and other uses of land. However, this requires detailed and spatially comprehensive knowledge of the habitat preferences and distributions of selected focal indicator species. Unfortunately, due to limited resources for field surveys, only a small proportion of the occurrences of focal species is usually known. This shortcoming can be circumvented by using modeling techniques to predict the spatial distribution of suitable sites for the target species. Airborne laser scanning (ALS) and other remote sensing (RS) techniques have the potential to provide useful environmental data covering systematically large areas for these purposes. Here, we focused on six bird of prey and woodpecker species known to be good indicators of boreal forest biodiversity values. We used known nest sites of the six indicator species based on nestling ringing records. Thus, the most suitable nesting sites of these species provide important information for biodiversity-friendly forest management and conservation planning. We developed fine-grained, that is, 96 × 96 m grid cell resolution, predictive maps across the whole of Finland of the suitable nesting habitats based on ALS and other RS data and spatial information on the distribution of important forest stands for the six studied biodiversity indicator bird species based on nesting-habitat suitability modeling, that is, the MaxEnt model. Habitat preferences of the study species, as determined by MaxEnt, were in line with the previous knowledge of species-habitat relations. The proportion of suitable habitats of these species in protected areas (PAs) was considerable, but our analysis also revealed many potentially high-quality forest stands outside PAs. However, many of these sites are increasingly threatened by logging because of increased pressures for using forests for bioeconomy and forest industry based on National Forest Strategy. Predicting habitat suitability based on information on the nest sites of indicator species provides a new tool for systematic conservation planning over large areas in boreal forests in Europe, and a corresponding approach would also be feasible and recommendable elsewhere where similar data are available.

Improving species-based area protection in Antarctica.

Area protection is a major mechanism deployed for environmental conservation in Antarctica. Yet, the Antarctic protected areas network is widely acknowledged as inadequate, in part because the criteria for area protection south of 60°S are not fully applied. The most poorly explored of these criteria is the type locality of species, which provides the primary legal means for Antarctic species-based area protection and a method for conserving species even if little is known about their habitat or distribution. The type locality criterion has not been systematically assessed since its incorporation into the Protocol on Environmental Protection to the Antarctic Treaty in 1991, so the extent to which the criterion is being met or might be useful for area protection is largely unknown. To address the matter, we created and analyzed a comprehensive database of Antarctic type localities of terrestrial and lacustrine lichens, plants, and animals. We compiled the database via a literature search of key taxonomic and geographic terms and then analyzed the distance between type localities identifiable to a ≤ 25km2 resolution and current Antarctic Specially Protected Areas (ASPAs) and human infrastructure. We used a distance-clustering approach for localities outside current ASPAs to determine candidate protected areas that could contain these unprotected localities. Of the 386 type localities analyzed, 108 were within or overlapped current ASPAs. Inclusion of the remaining 278 type localities in the ASPA network would require the designation of a further 105 protected areas. Twenty-four of these areas included human infrastructure disturbance. Given the slow rate of ASPA designation, growing pace of human impacts on the continent, and the management burden associated with ASPAs, we propose ways in which the type locality criterion might best be deployed. These include a comprehensive, systematic conservation planning approach and an alternative emphasis on the habitat of species, rather than on a single locality.

Mejoría de la Protección Basada en Especies de Áreas en la Antártida Resumen La protección de áreas es un mecanismo importante implementado para la conservación ambiental en la Antártida. Sin embargo, generalmente se identifica como inadecuada a la red de áreas antárticas protegidas porque no se aplican totalmente los criterios para la protección de áreas al sur de los 60°S. De estos criterios, el menos explorado es el de la localidad tipo de las especies, el cual proporciona el principal medio legal para la protección basada en las especies de áreas en la Antártica y un método para la conservación de especies, incluso si se sabe poco sobre su hábitat o distribución. El criterio de la localidad tipo no ha sido evaluado sistemáticamente desde que se incorporó al Protocolo Ambiental del Tratado Antártico en 1991, por lo que se desconoce en gran parte el grado al que se cumple el criterio o cuán útil podría ser para proteger el área. Creamos y analizamos una base de datos integral de las localidades tipo de líquenes, plantas, y animales terrestres y lacustres para abordar este tema. Compilamos la base de datos a partir de la búsqueda de términos geográficos y taxonómicos relevantes en la literatura y después analizamos la distancia entre las localidades tipo identificables a una resolución ≤25km2 y las Áreas Especialmente Protegidas de la Antártida (AEPA) existentes y la infraestructura humana. Usamos una estrategia de agrupamiento de distancias para las localidades externas a las AEPA existentes para determinar áreas protegidas candidatas que podrían albergar estas localidades sin protección. De las 386 las localidades tipo analizadas, 108 estaban dentro de o se traslaparon con las AEPA existentes. La inclusión de las otras 278 localidades tipo dentro de la red AEPA requeriría de la designación de 105 áreas adicionales. En 24 de estas áreas existieron alteraciones por la infraestructura humana. Debido al ritmo lento de designación de AEPA, el avance del impacto humano en el continente y el costo de la gestión asociado con las AEPA, proponemos algunas formas en las que podría implementarse de mejor manera el criterio de la localidad tipo. Estas formas incluyen una estrategia sistemática e integral de la planeación de la conservación y un énfasis alternativo en el hábitat de la especie en lugar de en una sola localidad.

Redefining and mapping global irreplaceability.

Irreplaceability is a concept used to describe how close a site is to being essential for achieving conservation targets. Current methods for measuring irreplaceability are based on representative combinations of sites, giving them an extrinsic nature and exponential computational requirements. Surrogate measures based on efficiency (complementarity) are often used as alternatives, but they were never intended for this purpose and do not measure irreplaceability. Current approaches used to estimate irreplaceability have key limitations. Some of these are a result of the tools used, but some are due to the nature of the current definition of irreplaceability. For irreplaceability to be stable and useful for conservation purposes and to resolve limitations, irreplaceability measures should adhere to five axioms; baseline coherence, monotonic responsiveness, proportional responsiveness, intrinsic stability, and bounded outputs. We designed a robust method for measuring a site's proximity to irreplaceability that adheres to these requirements and used it to develop the first systematic global map of irreplaceability based on data for terrestrial vertebrates (n = 29,837 species, >1 million grid cells). At least 3.5% of land surface was highly irreplaceable, and 47.6% of highly irreplaceable cells were contained in 12 countries. More generous thresholds of irreplaceability flag greater portions of land surface that would still be realistic to protect under current global objectives. Irreplaceable sites should form a critical component of any global conservation plan and should be part of the UN Convention on Biological Diversity's post2020 Global Biodiversity Framework strategy, forming part of the 30% protection by 2030 target that is gaining support. The reliable identification of irreplaceable sites will be crucial to halting extinctions.

Redefinición y Mapeo de la Irremplazabilidad Global Resumen El irremplazabilidad es un concepto utilizado para describir cuán cerca está un sitio de ser esencial para lograr los objetivos de conservación. Los métodos actuales para medir la irremplazabilidad están basados en las combinaciones representativas de sitios, proporcionándoles una naturaleza extrínseca y requerimientos computacionales exponenciales. Comúnmente se usan medidas sustitutas basadas en la eficiencia (complementariedad) como alternativas, pero nunca se pensó que se usaron con este propósito y no miden el carácter irremplazable. Las estrategias actuales para estimar la irremplazabilidad tienen limitantes importantes. Algunas de estas son el resultado de las herramientas utilizadas, pero otras surgen debido a la naturaleza de la actual definición de irremplazabilidad. Para que este concepto sea estable y útil para los propósitos de conservación y para resolver las limitantes, las medidas de la irremplazabilidad deberían adherirse a cinco axiomas: coherencia de la línea base, receptividad monotónica, receptividad proporcional, estabilidad intrínseca y resultados delimitados. Diseñamos un método robusto para medir la aproximación de un sitio a la irremplazabilidad que se adhiere a estos requerimientos y lo usamos para desarrollar el primer mapa mundial sistemático de irremplazabilidad basado en datos de vertebrados terrestres (n = 29,837 especies, >1 millón de celdas de cuadrícula). Al menos el 3.5% de la superficie terrestre es altamente irremplazable, y el 47.6% de las celdas altamente irremplazables estuvieron contenidas en doce países. Unos umbrales más generosos de la irremplazabilidad marcan porciones más grandes de superficie terrestre que todavía podría ser realista proteger bajo los objetivos mundiales actuales. Los sitios irremplazables deberían ser un componente crítico de cualquier plan de conservación global y deberían formar parte de la estrategia del Marco para la Biodiversidad Global post-2020 de la Convención sobre la Diversidad Biológica de la ONU, constituyendo una parte del objetivo de 30% de protección para el 2030 que está ganando apoyo. La identificación confiable de los sitios irremplazables será de suma importancia para detener las extinciones.

Cost-effective integrated conservation and restoration priorities by trading off multiple ecosystem services.

Conservation and restoration have long been regarded as two separate management avenues to maintain or enhance ecosystem functioning. Despite the commonalities in goals, restoration is generally considered a lower priority than conservation due to its generally greater cost, uncertainties in multiple trajectories and deals with already degraded habitats. However, when resources and opportunities for meeting conservation needs are limited, restoration could be an imperative avenue to provide additional benefits from conservation. The priority of conservation and restoration should be integrated based on an identical framework cost effectively to obtain the maximum ecological benefits with minimal costs. We propose a methodological framework to integrate conservation and restoration based on theories of Systematic Conservation Planning, which could identify best integrated conservation and restoration pattern in a cost-effective way on the basis of the provisions of multiple ecosystem services (i.e., carbon storage, water yield, soil retention and habitat quality). The trade-offs among four ecosystem services are assessed with an each of 10% increment in the target levels of ecosystem services. We demonstrated our approach at a regional scale, in the Dongting Lake Area, China. Our results showed that conservation is prioritized in a higher proportion of the study area when the targets are low. When the target level became higher, restoration gained more importance with growing area. This highlights that restoration pattern is indispensable when target setting become high and the integrated conservation and restoration planning is more cost efficient than that of conservation alone. Improving the carbon storage and soil retention would also contribute greatly to an increase in other ecosystems, but increasing the water yield and habitat quality would not guarantee an improvement for others. Integrated conservation and restoration planning will facilitate refine target achievement of conservation and restoration recommendations, by the trade-offs between conservation and restoration, and among different ecosystem services, our prioritization framework provides a useful insight in implementing the integrated planning, which can improve the efficiency in increasing ecosystem services compared to use either conservation or restoration ways.

Ecosystem services in conservation planning: Assessing compatible vs. incompatible conservation.

The compatible conservation of ecosystem services (ES) refers to the sustainable development of a region and the multiple dimensions of the region population's well-being. Applying the ES relationship to systematic conservation planning (SCP) can help determine the protection priorities associated with ES and support good zoning decisions. This study uses Nanchang, China as a case study to construct a multi-scenario ES protection scheme. This includes evaluating the spatial distribution characteristics of four core ES, and the ES relationships in the subregion in Nanchang. The ES relationship is then used to construct three ES conservation scenarios (synergetic, trade-off and incompatible), and the SCP tool is used for zoning. The results show the following. First, the incompatible scenario prioritizes the conservation of supporting services and provisioning services, which support ecological protection and cultivated land security. Second, given a land management and control threshold, the management zones can be compatible with a large proportion of secondary services in the synergetic scenario (22%). Fewer secondary services are compatible under the trade-off scenario (8%). As the compatible secondary service targets increase, each management zone area experiences a nonlinear change. The spatial change is more stable in the synergetic scenario compared to the trade-off scenario, and the space of management zone becomes discrete under the trade-off scenario. Third, the compatibility process has a feedback effect on the ES relationship. Compared with the trade-off scenario, compatible synergetic services are more stable with respect to changes in the ES relationship. Constructing ecological buffer zones takes up cultivated land, decreasing the synergy between carbon sequestration services and food production services. However, ecological buffer zones should play a role in certain areas. The compatibility of increased food production services and habitat services in priority conservation and controlled development zones enhance ES trade-offs. An increase in cultural services is compatible with carbon sequestration services in the ecological buffer zone. This changes the relationship between ES, from having a weak trade-off to having a weak synergy. Creating a compatible ES is a spatial trade-off process; these synergies and trade-offs should be considered in spatial planning. An appropriate proportion of ES should be allocated to each zone, to increase the coordinated management of the urban-rural ecology.

Evaluating surrogates of genetic diversity for conservation planning.

Protected-area systems should conserve intraspecific genetic diversity. Because genetic data require resources to obtain, several approaches have been proposed for generating plans for protected-area systems (prioritizations) when genetic data are not available. Yet such surrogate-based approaches remain poorly tested. We evaluated the effectiveness of potential surrogate-based approaches based on microsatellite genetic data collected across the Iberian Peninsula for 7 amphibian and 3 reptilian species. Long-term environmental suitability did not effectively represent sites containing high genetic diversity (allelic richness). Prioritizations based on long-term environmental suitability had similar performance to random prioritizations. Geographic distances and resistance distances based on contemporary environmental suitability were not always effective surrogates for identification of combinations of sites that contain individuals with different genetic compositions. Our results demonstrate that population genetic data based on commonly used neutral markers can inform prioritizations, and we could not find an adequate substitute. Conservation planners need to weigh the potential benefits of genetic data against their acquisition costs.

Evaluación de los Sustitutos de la Diversidad Genética para la Planeación de la Conservación Resumen Los sistemas de áreas protegidas deberían conservar la diversidad genética intraespecífica. Ya que para obtener datos genéticos se requieren recursos, se han propuesto distintas estrategias para generar los planes para los sistemas de áreas protegidas (priorizaciones) cuando los datos genéticos no están disponibles. A pesar de lo anterior, dichas estrategias basadas en sustitutos han sido poco evaluadas. Evaluamos la efectividad del potencial de las estrategias basadas en sustitutos cuya base son los datos genéticos de microsatélites obtenidos en toda la Península Ibérica y correspondientes a siete especies de anfibios y a tres de reptiles. La idoneidad ambiental a largo plazo no representó efectivamente los sitios que contienen una diversidad genética alta (riqueza de alelos). Las priorizaciones basadas en la idoneidad ambiental a largo plazo tuvieron un desempeño similar a las priorizaciones aleatorias. Las distancias geográficas y las distancias de resistencia basadas en la idoneidad ambiental contemporánea no siempre fueron sustitutos efectivos para la identificación de las combinaciones de sitios que contienen individuos con composiciones genéticas diferentes. Nuestros resultados demuestran que los datos genéticos de una población basados en marcadores neutrales de uso común pueden informar a las priorizaciones y que no pudimos encontrar un sustituto adecuado. Los planificadores de la conservación necesitan sopesar los beneficios potenciales de los datos genéticos contra sus costos de adquisición.

Identifying optimized on-the-ground priority areas for species conservation in a global biodiversity hotspot.

Threatened species are inadequately represented within protected areas (PAs) across the globe. Species conservation planning may be improved by using public species-occurrence databases, but empirical evidence is limited of how that may be accomplished at local scales. We used the Three Parallel Rivers Region of China as a case to investigate the utility of public species data in improvement in conservation planning. We mapped the distribution of each species as suitable habitat ranges using species distribution models (for 261 plants and 29 animals with ≥5 occurrences) or as point locations (for 591 plants and 328 animals with <5 occurrences). Systematic conservation planning was then applied to identify three optimized portfolios of priority conservation areas (PCAs) for achieving increasing targets of 17, 31, and 50% of the total study area. We then compared the distributions of PCAs in this study with those in two existing PCA datasets. PCAs in this study covered greater areas in the southeastern highly-disturbed regions and along valleys of great rivers than two existing datasets that had a focus on intact ecosystems in remote mountain areas. The three portfolios of PCAs had some overlap with two existing PCA datasets, with the overlapping area accounting for 26.4-39.0% of the total areas of our PCAs. Our PCAs could complement existing PCAs by identifying more priority areas in developed landscapes; this is critical for protecting biodiversity in such areas as they face greater pressures. PCAs in this study received a much lower PA coverage (32.9-43.1%) than existing PCAs (60.2-60.8%) because of biased PA distribution toward mountain areas. Our results suggest that conservation planning based on limited public species data could improve local-scale priority-setting practices. The analysis supports effective integration of species targets in China's new national park system by identifying optimized networks of PCAs.

Incorporating climate change adaptation into marine protected area planning.

Climate change is increasingly impacting marine protected areas (MPAs) and MPA networks, yet adaptation strategies are rarely incorporated into MPA design and management plans according to the primary scientific literature. Here we review the state of knowledge for adapting existing and future MPAs to climate change and synthesize case studies (n = 27) of how marine conservation planning can respond to shifting environmental conditions. First, we derive a generalized conservation planning framework based on five published frameworks that incorporate climate change adaptation to inform MPA design. We then summarize examples from the scientific literature to assess how conservation goals were defined, vulnerability assessments performed and adaptation strategies incorporated into the design and management of existing or new MPAs. Our analysis revealed that 82% of real-world examples of climate change adaptation in MPA planning derive from tropical reefs, highlighting the need for research in other ecosystems and habitat types. We found contrasting recommendations for adaptation strategies at the planning stage, either focusing only on climate refugia, or aiming for representative protection of areas encompassing the full range of expected climate change impacts. Recommendations for MPA management were more unified and focused on adaptative management approaches. Lastly, we evaluate common barriers to adopting climate change adaptation strategies based on reviewing studies which conducted interviews with MPA managers and other conservation practitioners. This highlights a lack of scientific studies evaluating different adaptation strategies and shortcomings in current governance structures as two major barriers, and we discuss how these could be overcome. Our review provides a comprehensive synthesis of planning frameworks, case studies, adaptation strategies and management actions which can inform a more coordinated global effort to adapt existing and future MPA networks to continued climate change.

Allocating resources for land protection using continuous optimization: biodiversity conservation in the United States.

Spatial optimization approaches that were originally developed to help conservation organizations determine protection decisions over small spatial scales are now used to inform global or continental scale priority setting. However, the different decision contexts involved in large-scale resource allocation need to be considered. We present a continuous optimization approach in which a decision-maker allocates funding to regional offices. Local decision-makers then use these funds to implement habitat protection efforts with varying effectiveness when evaluated in terms of the funder's goals. We illustrate this continuous formulation by examining the relative priority that should be given to different counties in the coterminous United States when acquiring land to establish new protected areas. If weighting all species equally, counties in the southwest United States, where large areas can be bought cheaply, are priorities for protection. If focusing only on species of conservation concern, priorities shift to locations rich in such species, particularly near expanding exurban areas facing high rates of future habitat conversion (e.g., south-central Texas). Priorities for protection are sensitive to what is assumed about local ecological and decision-making processes. For example, decision-makers who doubt the efficacy of local land protection efforts should focus on a few key areas, while optimistic decision-makers should disperse funding more widely. Efforts to inform large-scale conservation priorities should reflect better the types of choice that decision-makers actually face when working over these scales. They also need to report the sensitivity of recommended priorities to what are often unstated assumptions about local processes affecting conservation outcomes.

Incorporating connectivity into conservation planning for the optimal representation of multiple species and ecosystem services.

Conservation planning tends to focus on protecting species' ranges or landscape connectivity but seldom both-particularly in the case of diverse taxonomic assemblages and multiple planning goals. Therefore, information on potential trade-offs between maintaining landscape connectivity and achieving other conservation objectives is lacking. We developed an optimization approach to prioritize the maximal protection of species' ranges, ecosystem types, and forest carbon stocks, while also including habitat connectivity for range-shifting species and dispersal corridors to link protected area. We applied our approach to Sabah, Malaysia, where the state government mandated an increase in protected-area coverage of approximately 305,000 ha but did not specify where new protected areas should be. Compared with a conservation planning approach that did not incorporate the 2 connectivity features, our approach increased the protection of dispersal corridors and elevational connectivity by 13% and 21%, respectively. Coverage of vertebrate and plant species' ranges and forest types were the same whether connectivity was included or excluded. Our approach protected 2% less forest carbon and 3% less butterfly range than when connectivity features were not included. Hence, the inclusion of connectivity into conservation planning can generate large increases in the protection of landscape connectivity with minimal loss of representation of other conservation targets.

Incorporación de la Conectividad a la Planeación de la Conservación para la Representación Óptima de Especies Múltiples y Servicios Ambientales Resumen Las tendencias de planeación de la conservación tienden a enfocarse en la protección de la distribución geográfica de las especies o en la conectividad de paisajes, pero rara vez se enfocan en ambas - particularmente para el caso de los ensamblajes taxonómicos y las metas múltiples de planeación. Por lo tanto, hay carencias en la información sobre las compensaciones potenciales entre mantener la conectividad de los paisajes y alcanzar otros objetivos de conservación. Desarrollamos una estrategia de optimización para priorizar la protección máxima de la distribución de las especies, los tipos de ecosistemas y los stocks de carbono de los bosques, a la vez que incluimos la conectividad del hábitat para las especies que modifican su distribución y los corredores de dispersión para conectar el área protegida. Aplicamos nuestra estrategia en Sabah, Malasia, en donde el gobierno estatal ordenó un incremento de ∼305, 000 ha en la cobertura de áreas protegidas sin especificar la ubicación de las nuevas áreas protegidas. En comparación con una estrategia de planeación de la conservación que no incorporó las dos características de la conectividad, nuestra estrategia incrementó la protección de los corredores de dispersión y la conectividad altitudinal en un 13% y 21% respectivamente. La cobertura de la distribución de las especies de plantas y vertebrados y de los tipos de bosque fue la misma con o sin la inclusión de la conectividad. Nuestra estrategia protegió 2% menos del carbono forestal y 3% menos de la distribución de mariposas que cuando no se incluyeron las características de conectividad en la estrategia. Por lo tanto, incluir a la conectividad en la planeación de la conservación puede generar grandes incrementos en la protección de la conectividad del paisaje con una pérdida mínima de representación para los demás objetivos de conservación.