Atmosphere teleconnections from abatement of China aerosol emissions exacerbate Northeast Pacific warm blob events.

During 2010 to 2020, Northeast Pacific (NEP) sea surface temperature (SST) experienced the warmest decade ever recorded, manifested in several extreme marine heatwaves, referred to as "warm blob" events, which severely affect marine ecosystems and extreme weather along the west coast of North America. While year-to-year internal climate variability has been suggested as a cause of individual events, the causes of the continuous dramatic NEP SST warming remain elusive. Here, we show that other than the greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing, rapid aerosol abatement in China over the period likely plays an important role. Anomalous tropospheric warming induced by declining aerosols in China generated atmospheric teleconnections from East Asia to the NEP, featuring an intensified and southward-shifted Aleutian Low. The associated atmospheric circulation anomaly weakens the climatological westerlies in the NEP and warms the SST there by suppressing the evaporative cooling. The aerosol-induced mean warming of the NEP SST, along with internal climate variability and the GHG-induced warming, made the warm blob events more frequent and intense during 2010 to 2020. As anthropogenic aerosol emissions continue to decrease, there is likely to be an increase in NEP warm blob events, disproportionately large beyond the direct radiative effects.

Contribution of anthropogenic aerosols to persistent La Niña-like conditions in the early 21st century.

The discrepancy between the observed lack of surface warming in the eastern equatorial Pacific and climate model projections of an El Niño-like warming pattern confronts the climate research community. While anthropogenic aerosols have been suggested as a cause, the prolonged cooling trend over the equatorial Pacific appears in conflict with Northern Hemisphere aerosol emission reduction since the 1980s. Here, using CESM, we show that the superposition of fast and slow responses to aerosol emission change-an increase followed by a decrease-can sustain the La Niña-like condition for a longer time than expected. The rapid adjustment of Hadley Cell to aerosol reduction triggers joint feedback between low clouds, wind, evaporation, and sea surface temperature in the Southeast Pacific, leading to a wedge-shaped cooling that extends to the central equatorial Pacific. Meanwhile, the northern subtropical cell gradually intensifies, resulting in equatorial subsurface cooling that lasts for decades.

Global impacts of recent Southern Ocean cooling.

Since the beginning of the satellite era, Southern Ocean sea surface temperatures (SSTs) have cooled, despite global warming. While observed Southern Ocean cooling has previously been reported to have minimal impact on the tropical Pacific, the efficiency of this teleconnection has recently shown to be mediated by subtropical cloud feedbacks that are highly model-dependent. Here, we conduct a coupled model intercomparison of paired ensemble simulations under historical radiative forcing: one with freely evolving SSTs and the other with Southern Ocean SST anomalies constrained to follow observations. We reveal a global impact of observed Southern Ocean cooling in the model with stronger (and more realistic) cloud feedbacks, including Antarctic sea-ice expansion, southeastern tropical Pacific cooling, northward-shifted Hadley circulation, Aleutian low weakening, and North Pacific warming. Our results therefore suggest that observed Southern Ocean SST decrease might have contributed to cooler conditions in the eastern tropical Pacific in recent decades.

Subtropical clouds key to Southern Ocean teleconnections to the tropical Pacific.

Excessive precipitation over the southeastern tropical Pacific is a major common bias that persists through generations of global climate models. While recent studies suggest an overly warm Southern Ocean as the cause, models disagree on the quantitative importance of this remote mechanism in light of ocean circulation feedback. Here, using a multimodel experiment in which the Southern Ocean is radiatively cooled, we show a teleconnection from the Southern Ocean to the tropical Pacific that is mediated by a shortwave subtropical cloud feedback. Cooling the Southern Ocean preferentially cools the southeastern tropical Pacific, thereby shifting the eastern tropical Pacific rainbelt northward with the reduced precipitation bias. Regional cloud locking experiments confirm that the teleconnection efficiency depends on subtropical stratocumulus cloud feedback. This subtropical cloud feedback is too weak in most climate models, suggesting that teleconnections from the Southern Ocean to the tropical Pacific are stronger than widely thought.

Tele-connection of embodied carbon emissions from industries in China's trade: A complex network analysis.

Regions can meet their development demands through trade, with the attendant environmental costs being shifted to other regions, and carbon emissions emitted from different industries could be transferred over long distances through the increasingly diversified trade network. However, it remains unclear how regional trade leads to the tele-connection and transfer of embodied carbon emissions form industries, and what is the structure and characteristics of the transfer. Thus, multiregional input‒output models and complex network analysis are employed to reveal the tele-connection of carbon emissions from industries in China. The results show that embodied carbon emissions from trade increased by 869.47 million tons during in five years, with North China being the largest outflow area, while the coastal regions being the inflow areas. Moreover, the secondary industry is the highest source of embodied carbon emissions, accounting for 96.68 % of the volume, and the transfer of carbon emissions mainly occurs in North and East China. In carbon emissions networks, North China holds a controlling position, as analysed by degree and strength. The first 23.3%-30% of nodes carry about 62.6%-72.4% of the entire carbon emissions flow, and the network conforms to scale-free features. Centrality further reveals that northern and coastal areas occupy core positions, with interregional carbon flows dominating the critical pathways in the network. The number of clusters evolved from three to four communities during 2012-2017 in the network, demonstrating that the carbon flow network is developing towards multipolarity and modularity. This study underscores the urgency of mitigating carbon emissions in industrial trade by identifying key nodes and cluster structures in emission networks.

A regime shift in the Southeast Greenland marine ecosystem.

Two major oceanographic changes have recently propagated through several trophic levels in coastal areas of Southeast Greenland (SEG). Firstly, the amount of drift-ice exported from the Fram Strait and transported with the East Greenland Current (EGC) has decreased significantly over the past two decades, and a main tipping element (summer sea ice) has virtually disappeared since 2003 leading to a regime shift in oceanographic and ecological conditions in the region. The following 20-year period with low or no coastal sea ice is unique in the 200-year history of ice observations in the region, and the regime shift is also obvious in the volume of ice export through the Fram Strait after 2013. In the same period, the temperature of the EGC south of 73.5 N has increased significantly (>2°C) since 1980. Secondly, the warm Irminger Current, which advects warm, saline Atlantic Water into the region, has become warmer since 1990. The lack of pack ice in summer together with a warming ocean generated cascading effects on the ecosystem in SEG that are manifested in a changed fish fauna with an influx of boreal species in the south and the subarctic capelin further north. At higher trophic levels there has been an increase in the abundance of several boreal cetaceans (humpback, fin, killer, and pilot whales and dolphins) that are either new to this area or occur in historically large numbers. It is estimated that the new cetacean species in SEG are responsible for an annual predation level of 700,000 tons of fish. In addition, predation on krill species is estimated at >1,500,000 tons mainly consumed by fin whales. Simultaneously, there has been a reduction in the abundance and catches of narwhals and walruses in SEG and it is suggested that these species have been impacted by the habitat changes.

Effects of Amazonian flying rivers on frog biodiversity and populations in the Atlantic rainforest.

Given the speed at which humans are changing the climate, species with high degrees of endemism may not have time to avoid extinction through adaptation. We investigated through teleconnection analysis the origin of rainfall that determines the phylogenetic diversity of rainforest frogs and the effects of microclimate differences in shaping the morphological traits of isolated populations (which contribute to greater phylogenetic diversity and speciation). We also investigated through teleconnection analysis how deforestation in Amazonia can affect ecosystem services that are fundamental to maintaining the climate of the Atlantic rainforest biodiversity hotspot. Seasonal winds known as flying rivers carry water vapor from Amazonia to the Atlantic Forest, and the breaking of this ecosystem service could lead Atlantic Forest species to population decline and extinction in the short term. Our results suggest that the selection of morphological traits that shape Atlantic Forest frog diversity and their population dynamics are influenced by the Amazonian flying rivers. Our results also suggest that the increases of temperature anomalies in the Atlantic Ocean due to global warming and in the Amazon forest due to deforestation are already breaking this cycle and threaten the biodiversity of the Atlantic Forest hotspot.

Efectos de los ríos voladores de la Amazonía sobre la diversidad y las poblaciones de ranas en la Mata Atlántica Resumen Con la velocidad a la que la humanidad está alterando el clima, puede que las especies con un nivel elevado de endemismo no cuenten con tiempo suficiente para adaptarse y evitar la extinción. Usamos un análisis de teleconexión para investigar el origen de las precipitaciones que determinan la diversidad filogenética de las ranas selváticas y los efectos de las diferencias microclimáticas sobre la determinación de las características morfológicas de las poblaciones aisladas, las cuales contribuyen a una mayor especiación y diversidad filogenética. También utilizamos este análisis para investigar cómo la deforestación en la Amazonía puede afectar los servicios ambientales que son fundamentales para mantener el punto caliente de biodiversidad que es la Mata Atlántica. Los ríos voladores son vientos estacionales que transportan vapor de agua desde la Amazonía hasta la Mata Atlántica; la interrupción de este servicio ambiental podría derivar en la declinación poblacional y la extinción a corto plazo de las especies en este ecosistema. Nuestros resultados sugieren que los ríos voladores de la Amazonía influyen sobre la selección de las características morfológicas que determinan la diversidad de ranas y sus dinámicas poblacionales en la Mata Atlántica. Nuestros resultados también sugieren que el incremento de anomalías térmicas en el Océano Atlántico, causadas por el calentamiento global, y en la Amazonía, causadas por la deforestación, ya están interrumpiendo este ciclo y son una amenaza para la biodiversidad del punto caliente que es la Mata Atlántica.

The role of teleconnections and solar activity on the discharge of tropical river systems within the Niger basin.

The behavior of tropical river systems is driven by some internal and external factors. Understanding the role of these external forces, such as large-scale oscillations, on river discharge will provide insight into their dynamic complexities and modelling. In this study, the role of teleconnection patterns and solar activity on river discharges within the Niger basin was considered using both linear (correlation) and nonlinear (multifractal and joint recurrence analysis) statistical approaches. Correlation analysis suggests the existence of a linear relationship between tropical teleconnection patterns in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans with river discharge in the Niger basin. Nonlinear relationships were investigated using multifractal formalism and joint recurrence quantification analysis. A strong nonlinear relationship was observed between the teleconnection patterns and river discharge in Diola while other stations (Koulikoro, Ansongo, Niamey, Mopti, Kirango) showed no such relationship. The observation at Diola is attributed to its location (coastal) among other things. The multifractal strengths were found in the range of 0.58-2.86, suggesting fractal correlations between the parameters. There was no conclusive evidence of a linear and nonlinear relationship between solar activity and tropical river discharge within the Niger basin.

China's Mismatch of Public Awareness and Biodiversity Threats under Economic Trade.

China is one of the countries with high biodiversity on the globe, but suffers extreme biodiversity loss due to the increasingly interconnected economy. Understanding the nation-level public awareness of biodiversity under economic trades is crucial for implementing sustainable production and consumption of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). This study is the first to assess the public awareness of biodiversity loss associated with China's interprovincial trades by utilizing social media data and the multiregion input-output (MRIO) table. Results show that China's interprovincial trades cause heavy threats not only to local species but to distant species. Approximately 60% of provinces displace over half of their consumption-based biodiversity threats to other provinces. Nevertheless, individuals do not clearly realize their responsibility for the distant biodiversity they consumed, with a large mismatch both in popularity (Gini index = 0.51, Robin index = 39.57) and donation (Gini index = 0.69, Robin index = 54.58). To alleviate this phenomenon, our analysis suggests that the expansion of national-level nature reserves may be effectively beneficial to public biodiversity awareness, showing significantly positive partial correlation coefficients with individuals' popularity and donations. These insights provided by this study offer targeted information for conservation and call for synergistic collaboration between the civil society, especially consumers, and governments to turn the tide of biodiversity loss.

Response of Indian summer monsoon rainfall to remote carbonaceous aerosols at short time scales: Teleconnections and feedbacks.

The effect of atmospheric aerosols on Indian monsoon is one of the scientifically challenging and societally relevant research issues of the recent decades. Past studies have derived inferences mostly based on local emissions and their impacts thereupon. However, more recent studies have shown that the remote effects driven by aerosols elsewhere could also impact the monsoon system on different time scales. Our study using an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) shows that regional carbonaceous aerosol emissions (from North America, Europe and North Africa and Asia) can significantly alter Indian summer monsoon rainfall. It is interesting to note that the effects of remote aerosols are larger and bear a resemblance to each other in comparison to local emissions. Our study reveals that the modulation of large-scale circulation induced by regional warming by carbonaceous aerosols leads to teleconnection patterns around the globe, thereby changing the precipitation depending on the phase of these disturbances. We also find that the effects of remote carbonaceous aerosols are strengthened by modulation/feedback through natural dust aerosols over the Arabian Sea with subsequent increase in rainfall over India. The results signify that the changes in the aerosol emissions in one region could lead to the change in precipitation over other regions through global teleconnection and associated feedbacks induced by regional atmospheric warming and/or cooling.

Transhemispheric ecosystem disservices of pink salmon in a Pacific Ocean macrosystem.

Pink salmon (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha) in the North Pacific Ocean have flourished since the 1970s, with growth in wild populations augmented by rising hatchery production. As their abundance has grown, so too has evidence that they are having important effects on other species and on ocean ecosystems. In alternating years of high abundance, they can initiate pelagic trophic cascades in the northern North Pacific Ocean and Bering Sea and depress the availability of common prey resources of other species of salmon, resident seabirds, and other pelagic species. We now propose that the geographic scale of ecosystem disservices of pink salmon is far greater due to a 15,000-kilometer transhemispheric teleconnection in a Pacific Ocean macrosystem maintained by short-tailed shearwaters (Ardenna tenuirostris), seabirds that migrate annually between their nesting grounds in the South Pacific Ocean and wintering grounds in the North Pacific Ocean. Over this century, the frequency and magnitude of mass mortalities of shearwaters as they arrive in Australia, and their abundance and productivity, have been related to the abundance of pink salmon. This has influenced human social, economic, and cultural traditions there, and has the potential to alter the role shearwaters play in insular terrestrial ecology. We can view the unique biennial pulses of pink salmon as a large, replicated, natural experiment that offers basin-scale opportunities to better learn how these ecosystems function. By exploring trophic interaction chains driven by pink salmon, we may achieve a deeper conservation conscientiousness for these northern open oceans.

Telecoupling cropland soil erosion with distant drivers within China.

Soil erosion on cropland is a result of the interaction between nature and human activities. The socioeconomic influencing factors of soil erosion have been less studied than the biophysical processes and previous studies have mainly focused on the impacts of local socioeconomic factors on soil erosion in the same region. However, since agricultural activities are densely connected to other socio-economic activities, the need for agricultural products from distant regions could potentially drive local soil erosion accompanying agricultural production. To the best of our knowledge, these telecoupling effects have not been studied. Here, we combined the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) and multiregional input-output analysis (MRIO) models to quantify the contribution of China's cross-provincial economic demand to local soil erosion at the provincial, sectoral, and supply chain levels. Our results show that a large amount of soil erosion in the southwest, northeast, and central regions is linked to the economic needs across provinces. Agriculture and food processing are the most important distant driving sectors. The driving effect of household consumption on soil erosion mainly occurs on shorter supply chains, while exports and capital formation drive soil erosion through longer chains. Our results indicate that local soil erosion management must consider the impact of distant agricultural product needs and coordinate food production and supply on a national scale to protect the ecological function of the land.

Seasonal prediction of US summertime ozone using statistical analysis of large scale climate patterns.

We develop a statistical model to predict June-July-August (JJA) daily maximum 8-h average (MDA8) ozone concentrations in the eastern United States based on large-scale climate patterns during the previous spring. We find that anomalously high JJA ozone in the East is correlated with these springtime patterns: warm tropical Atlantic and cold northeast Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs), as well as positive sea level pressure (SLP) anomalies over Hawaii and negative SLP anomalies over the Atlantic and North America. We then develop a linear regression model to predict JJA MDA8 ozone from 1980 to 2013, using the identified SST and SLP patterns from the previous spring. The model explains ∼45% of the variability in JJA MDA8 ozone concentrations and ∼30% variability in the number of JJA ozone episodes (>70 ppbv) when averaged over the eastern United States. This seasonal predictability results from large-scale ocean-atmosphere interactions. Warm tropical Atlantic SSTs can trigger diabatic heating in the atmosphere and influence the extratropical climate through stationary wave propagation, leading to greater subsidence, less precipitation, and higher temperatures in the East, which increases surface ozone concentrations there. Cooler SSTs in the northeast Pacific are also associated with more summertime heatwaves and high ozone in the East. On average, models participating in the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project fail to capture the influence of this ocean-atmosphere interaction on temperatures in the eastern United States, implying that such models would have difficulty simulating the interannual variability of surface ozone in this region.

Analysis of changes in thermal growing season indices (tGSI) and their relations with some selected atmospheric teleconnection patterns (ATPs) over the northwest of Iran.

The daily minimum air temperature data from 18 stations located in the northwest of Iran during the period 1986-2015 was used to analyse the inter-annual variations and trends of thermal growing season indices (tGSI) and their relations with different atmospheric teleconnection patterns (ATPs). To analyze the changes in tGSI, tGSS (thermal growing season start), tGSE (thermal growing season end), and tGSL, the time period between tGSS and tGSE were considered. Using non-parametric Mann-Kendall and Spearman tests, the existence of a significant trend for time series of the tGSI and the correlation between ATPs and tGSI was evaluated. For eliminating the effect of serial correlation on test results, the trend-free pre-whitening approach was applied. Furthermore, residual bootstrap method was used to estimate the standard deviation of the Spearman correlation coefficient between tGSI and ATPs. The climate-based results showed the maximum tGSL increase (13.3 days per decade) for SA-C-M climate. For SH-K-W climate, the maximum significant trends for tGSS and tGSE were 9.6 (earlier start) and 10.8 (delay) days per decade, respectively. In general, in all statistically significant cases, the main cause of the extended tGSL was both earlier tGSS and delayed tGSE. In regional scale, it was found that the most effective teleconnection pattern on tGSS and tGSE are MEI (positive correlation), occurring during late winter and spring, and PDO index (negative correlation) in the summer, respectively. Moreover, the tGSL demonstrated the highest correlation (negative) with PDO with 1-month delay. The findings highlight that the inter-annual variations of tGSI in northwest of Iran can be attributed to the influence of certain atmospheric teleconnection patterns such as MEI, PDO, NAO, AO, EA, and AMO.

Multi-scale quantitative precipitation forecasting using nonlinear and nonstationary teleconnection signals and artificial neural network models.

Global sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies are observed to have a significant effect on terrestrial precipitation patterns throughout the United States. SST variations have been correlated with terrestrial precipitation via ocean-atmospheric interactions known as climate teleconnections. This study demonstrates how the scale effect could affect the forecasting accuracy with or without the inclusion of those newly discovered unknown teleconnection signals between Adirondack precipitation and SST anomaly in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. Unique SST regions of both known and unknown telecommunication signals were extracted from the wavelet analysis and used as input variables in an artificial neural network (ANN) forecasting model. Monthly and seasonal scales were considered with respect to a host of long-term (30-year) nonlinear and nonstationary teleconnection signals detected locally at the study site of Adirondack. Similar intra-annual time-lag effects of SST on precipitation variability are salient at both time scales. Sensitivity analysis of four scenarios reveals that more improvements of the forecasting accuracy of the ANN model can be observed by including both known and unknown teleconnection patterns at both time scales, although such improvements are not salient. Research findings also highlight the importance of choosing the forecasting model at the seasonal scale to predict more accurate peak values and global trends of terrestrial precipitation in response to teleconnection signals. The scale shift from monthly to seasonal may improve results by 17% and 17 mm/day in terms of R squared and root of mean square error values, respectively, if both known and unknown SST regions are considered for forecasting.

Global vegetation productivity response to climatic oscillations during the satellite era.

Climate control on global vegetation productivity patterns has intensified in response to recent global warming. Yet, the contributions of the leading internal climatic variations to global vegetation productivity are poorly understood. Here, we use 30 years of global satellite observations to study climatic variations controls on continental and global vegetation productivity patterns. El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases (La Niña, neutral, and El Niño years) appear to be a weaker control on global-scale vegetation productivity than previously thought, although continental-scale responses are substantial. There is also clear evidence that other non-ENSO climatic variations have a strong control on spatial patterns of vegetation productivity mainly through their influence on temperature. Among the eight leading internal climatic variations, the East Atlantic/West Russia Pattern extensively controls the ensuing year vegetation productivity of the most productive tropical and temperate forest ecosystems of the Earth's vegetated surface through directionally consistent influence on vegetation greenness. The Community Climate System Model (CCSM4) simulations do not capture the observed patterns of vegetation productivity responses to internal climatic variations. Our analyses show the ubiquitous control of climatic variations on vegetation productivity and can further guide CCSM and other Earth system models developments to represent vegetation response patterns to unforced variability. Several winter time internal climatic variation indices show strong potentials on predicting growing season vegetation productivity two to six seasons ahead which enables national governments and farmers forecast crop yield to ensure supplies of affordable food, famine early warning, and plan management options to minimize yield losses ahead of time.

A North American climate-masting-irruption teleconnection and its change under future climate.

Atmospheric variability can impact biological populations by triggering facultative migrations, but the stability of these atmosphere-biosphere connections may be vulnerable to climate change. As an example, we consider the leading mode of continental-scale facultative migration of Pine Siskins, where the associated ecological mechanism is changes in resource availability, with a mechanistic pathway of climate conditions affecting mast seeding patterns in trees which in turn drive bird migration. The three summers prior to pine siskin irruption feature an alternating west-east mast-seeding dipole in conifer trees with opposite anomalies over western and eastern North America. The climate driver of this west-east mast-seeding dipole, referred to as the North American Dipole, occurs during summer in the historical record, but shifts to spring in response to future climate warming during this century in a majority of global climate models. Identification of future changes in the timing of the climate driver of boreal forest mast seeding have broadly important implications for the dynamics of forest ecosystems.

Can teleconnections help to improve the seasonal prediction over the Southern African Development Community Region?

The limited skill of seasonal climate predictions in some regions of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) restricts their potential application to the development of climate services. This study explores the feasibility of improving the quality of these predictions by using the observed relationship between Essential Climate Variables (ECVs) and large-scale teleconnection indices, namely Niño3.4, the Atlantic Niño and the Indian Ocean Dipole. The underlying hypothesis is that, for certain areas, the empirical observed teleconnections could improve the predictions offered by the seasonal forecasting systems. This is achieved by implementing linear regression models between each index and ECV, for up to 12 months into the past, and for each season and grid point. After obtaining the index-derived estimates of the variables, the correlation coefficients and fair Ranked Probability Skill Scores (fRPSS) are computed and compared to those of the ECMWF SEAS5 (SEAS5) predictions for different lead times. The results show that 10-25 % of the entire domain exhibits improved correlations for the index-derived precipitation in all seasons. In the case of temperature, though, higher correlations could be observed only in six seasons (and solely for Niño3.4). Regarding fRPSS, up to 7 % of the entire area shows an improvement when using Niño3.4 to estimate temperature (in four seasons). Conversely, for precipitation there is no detected enhancement. In future work, it would be worth investigating whether a combined multi-index regression can further raise the observed increase in performance.

Impacts of February climate conditions in the Gobi Desert on March dust activities in the northern East Asia.

Amid ongoing global warming, intense dust storms continue to plague regions despite efforts to understand and mitigate their impacts. This study explores the connection between surface temperature (ST) and precipitation (PRE) in the Gobi Desert (GD) during February and their subsequent effects on March dust concentrations across northern East Asia. Our analysis reveals a clear pattern: higher February ST combined with lower PRE in GD correlates with increased dust levels in March, with ST effects predominantly in northern areas of dust sources compared to PRE. The warming of the ST in February facilitates surface thawing, and the concurrently reduced PRE decreases soil moisture in GD. These conditions both contribute to the loosening of the soil, thereby creating favorable lower boundary conditions for the onset of dust activities in the subsequent March. Atmospheric dynamics play a pivotal role in the changes of ST and PRE. The preceding ST warming is closely tied to the weakening of the East Asian winter monsoon. Furthermore, the Eurasia teleconnection (EU) pattern is identified as a key circulation factor driving the changes of February PRE in GD. Additionally, sea surface temperature anomalies in the Barents Sea and the North Atlantic appear to influence these atmospheric circulation changes, altering ST and PRE in GD, and consequently, impacting March dust dynamics in northern East Asia. This study provides crucial insights into the climatic precursors that drive dust storm activities, which are essential for improving the accuracy of dust storm forecasting.

Effects of interaction of multiple large-scale atmospheric circulations on precipitation dynamics in China.

Different scenarios of precipitation, that lead to such phenomena as droughts and floods are influenced by concurrent multiple teleconnection factors. However, the multivariate relationship between precipitation indices and teleconnection factors, including large-scale atmospheric circulations and sea surface temperature signals in China, is rarely explored. Understanding this relationship is crucial for drought early warning systems and effective response strategies. In this study, we comprehensively investigated the combined effects of multiple large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns on precipitation changes in China. Specifically, Pearson correlation analysis and Partial Wavelet Coherence (PWC) were used to identify the primary teleconnection factors influencing precipitation dynamics. Furthermore, we used the cross-wavelet method to elucidate the temporal lag and periodic relationships between multiple teleconnection factors and their interactions. Finally, the multiple wavelet coherence analysis method was used to identify the dominant two-factor and three-factor combinations shaping precipitation dynamics. This analysis facilitated the quantification and determination of interaction types and influencing pathways of teleconnection factors on precipitation dynamics, respectively. The results showed that: (1) the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), EI Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), East Asia Summer Monsoon (EASM), and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) were dominant teleconnection factors influencing Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) dynamics; (2) significant correlation and leading or lagging relationships at different timescales generally existed for various teleconnection factors, where AMO was mainly leading the other factors with positive correlation, while ENSO and Southern Oscillation (SO) were mainly lagging behind other factors with prolonged correlations; and (3) the interactions between teleconnection factors were quantified into three types: enhancing, independent and offsetting effects. Specifically, the enhancing effect of two-factor combinations was stronger than the offsetting effect, where AMO + NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) and AMO + AO (Atlantic Oscillation) had a larger distribution area in southern China. Conversely, the offsetting effect of three-factor combinations was more significant than that of the two-factor combinations, which was mainly distributed in northeast and northwest regions of China. This study sheds new light on the mechanisms of modulation and pathways of influencing various large-scale factors on seasonal precipitation dynamics.