Mutational robustness and resilience of a replicative cis-element of RNA virus: Promiscuity, limitations, relevance.

Since replication of RNA-viruses is generally a low-fidelity process, it would be advantageous, if specific interactions of their genomic cis-elements with dedicated ligands are relatively tolerant to mutations. The specificity/promiscuity trade-off of such interactions was addressed here by investigating structural requirements of the oriL (also known as the clover leaf-like element), of poliovirus RNA, a replicative cis-element containing a conserved essential tetraloop functionally interacting with the viral protein 3CD. The sequence of this tetraloop and 2 adjacent base-pairs was randomized in the viral genome, and viable viruses were selected in susceptible cells. Strikingly, each position of this octanucleotide in 62 investigated viable viruses could be occupied by any nucleotide (with the exception of one position, which lacked U), though with certain sequence preferences, confirmed by engineering mutant viral genomes whose phenotypic properties were found to correlate with the strength of the cis-element/ligand interaction. The results were compatible with a hypothesis that functional recognition by 3CD requires that this tetraloop should stably or temporarily adopt a YNMG-like (Y=U/C, N=any nucleotide, M=A/C) fold. The fitness of "weak" viruses could be increased by compensatory mutations "improving" the tetraloops. Otherwise, the recognition of "bad" tetraloops might be facilitated by alterations in the 3CD protein. The virus appeared to tolerate mutations in its cis-element relaying on either robustness (spatial structure degeneracy) or resilience (a combination of dynamic RNA folding, low-fidelity replication modifying the cis-element or its ligand, and negative selection). These mechanisms (especially resilience involving metastable low-fit intermediates) can also contribute to the viral evolvability.

Within-host evolution of SARS-CoV-2: how often are de novo mutations transmitted from symptomatic infections?

Despite a relatively low mutation rate, the large number of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections has allowed for substantial genetic change, leading to a multitude of emerging variants. Using a recently determined mutation rate (per site replication), as well as within-host parameter estimates for symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection, we apply a stochastic transmission-bottleneck model to describe the survival probability of de novo SARS-CoV-2 mutations as a function of bottleneck size and selection coefficient. For narrow bottlenecks, we find that mutations affecting per-target-cell attachment rate (with phenotypes associated with fusogenicity and ACE2 binding) have similar transmission probabilities to mutations affecting viral load clearance (with phenotypes associated with humoral evasion). We further find that mutations affecting the eclipse rate (with phenotypes associated with reorganization of cellular metabolic processes and synthesis of viral budding precursor material) are highly favoured relative to all other traits examined. We find that mutations leading to reduced removal rates of infected cells (with phenotypes associated with innate immune evasion) have limited transmission advantage relative to mutations leading to humoral evasion. Predicted transmission probabilities, however, for mutations affecting innate immune evasion are more consistent with the range of clinically estimated household transmission probabilities for de novo mutations. This result suggests that although mutations affecting humoral evasion are more easily transmitted when they occur, mutations affecting innate immune evasion may occur more readily. We examine our predictions in the context of a number of previously characterized mutations in circulating strains of SARS-CoV-2. Our work offers both a null model for SARS-CoV-2 mutation rates and predicts which aspects of viral life history are most likely to successfully evolve, despite low mutation rates and repeated transmission bottlenecks.