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1.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ; 121(16): e2311825121, 2024 Apr 16.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38588423

RESUMO

Over 45,000 gun deaths occur annually in the United States, a country with more than 100 million gun owners and more than 350 million guns. Nevertheless, passing legislation to reduce gun violence is difficult because the issue is intensely polarized. Polls asking about general gun policies (e.g., AR-15 restrictions) demonstrate that, at least in the abstract, Americans disagree vehemently about whether civilians should be able to keep and bear arms. It is possible, however, that a hidden consensus exists in America, which has thus far escaped attention-specifically, that when the focus is on their immediate environments and daily lives, even traditionally pro-gun groups may exhibit aversion to certain types of gun ownership and storage practices. To test this, we conducted two preregistered survey experiments with a large national sample. The first was a conjoint analysis where respondents chose between neighbors (n = 33,596 choices) who randomly varied on seven attributes, including gun ownership (none, pistol, AR-15). No group of respondents, not even traditionally pro-gun groups (e.g., Republicans), exhibited a significant preference for living near gun owners, and every group was averse to AR-15-owning neighbors. The second experiment, per debates about safe-storage laws, was a picture-based factorial vignette that randomized a neighbor's gun storage practices (n = 2,098). Every group of respondents was averse to interacting with a neighbor who stored guns outside of a locked safe. Our findings demonstrate that there is widespread agreement that certain types of gun ownership and storage practices are undesirable for communities.


Assuntos
Armas de Fogo , Humanos , Estados Unidos , Inquéritos e Questionários , Propriedade
2.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ; 121(24): e2321809121, 2024 Jun 11.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38781227

RESUMO

The modern canon of open science consists of five "schools of thought" that justify unfettered access to the fruits of scientific research: i) public engagement, ii) democratic right of access, iii) efficiency of knowledge gain, iv) shared technology, and v) better assessment of impact. Here, we introduce a sixth school: due process. Due process under the law includes a right to "discovery" by a defendant of potentially exculpatory evidence held by the prosecution. When such evidence is scientific, due process becomes a Constitutional mandate for open science. To illustrate the significance of this new school, we present a case study from forensics, which centers on a federally funded investigation that reports summary statistics indicating that identification decisions made by forensic firearms examiners are highly accurate. Because of growing concern about validity of forensic methods, the larger scientific community called for public release of the complete analyzable dataset for independent audit and verification. Those in possession of the data opposed release for three years while summary statistics were used by prosecutors to gain admissibility of evidence in criminal trials. Those statistics paint an incomplete picture and hint at flaws in experimental design and analysis. Under the circumstances, withholding the underlying data in a criminal proceeding violates due process. Following the successful open-science model of drug validity testing through "clinical trials," which place strict requirements on experimental design and timing of data release, we argue for registered and open "forensic trials" to ensure transparency and accountability.


Assuntos
Ciências Forenses , Humanos , Ciências Forenses/métodos , Armas de Fogo/legislação & jurisprudência
3.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ; 120(20): e2216972120, 2023 05 16.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37155850

RESUMO

Mass shootings are becoming more frequent in the United States, as we routinely learn from the media about attempts that have been prevented or tragedies that destroyed entire communities. To date, there has been limited understanding of the modus operandi of mass shooters, especially those who seek fame through their attacks. Here, we explore whether the attacks of these fame-seeking mass shooters were more surprising than those of others and clarify the link between fame and surprise in mass shootings. We assembled a dataset of 189 mass shootings from 1966 to 2021, integrating data from multiple sources. We categorized the incidents in terms of the targeted population and shooting location. We measured "surprisal" (often known as "Shannon information content") with respect to these features, and we scored fame from Wikipedia traffic data-a commonly used metric of fame. Surprisal was significantly higher for fame-seeking mass shooters than non-fame-seeking ones. We also registered a significant positive correlation between fame and surprisal controlling for the number of casualties and injured victims. Not only do we uncover a link between fame-seeking behavior and surprise in the attacks but also we demonstrate an association between the fame of a mass shooting and its surprise.


Assuntos
Armas de Fogo , Violência com Arma de Fogo , Estados Unidos , Humanos
4.
Lancet ; 403(10430): 935-945, 2024 Mar 09.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38342127

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: In the USA, Black women aged 25-44 years are disproportionately murdered compared with their White counterparts. Despite ongoing efforts to reduce racial and structural inequities, the result of these efforts remains unclear, particularly in light of the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: This study examined a cross-sectional time series of homicide death rates, by race, from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Wide-ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research system. We included data for women aged 25-44 years between 1999 and 2020 among 30 states in the USA. Homicide death was classified using underlying cause and multiple cause of death codes; mortality rates were calculated per 100 000 based on US Census Bureau population sizes. Homicide methods were classified as firearm, cutting or piercing, and other. Firearm homicides were compared with other homicides with logistic regression including covariates of race, time, and their interaction. We report odds ratios and 95% CIs. FINDINGS: In 2020, the homicide rate among Black women was 11·6 per 100 000, compared with 3 per 100 000 among White women. This inequity has persisted over time and is virtually unchanged since 1999. Homicide inequities vary across US states; in 11 states, racial inequities have increased since 1999. The racial inequity was greatest in Wisconsin, where in 2019-20, Black women aged 25-44 years were 20 times more likely to die by homicide than White women. Homicide by firearm is increasing in frequency; women in the USA had 2·44 (95% CI 2·14-2·78) times the odds of homicide involving firearms in 2019-20 compared with 1999-2003. Firearm homicide deaths are disproportionately concentrated among Black women in every region in the USA. INTERPRETATION: Our findings suggest that there is an urgent need to address homicide inequities among Black and White women in the USA. Enacting federal legislation that reduces gun access is a crucial step. Policy makers must address long-standing structural factors that underpin elevated gun violence by implementing sustainable wealth-building opportunities; developing desegregated, mixed income and affordable housing; and increasing green spaces in communities where Black women largely reside. FUNDING: National Institute of Mental Health of the National Institutes of Health.


Assuntos
Armas de Fogo , Suicídio , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia , Humanos , Feminino , Homicídio , Fatores de Tempo , Estudos Transversais , Pandemias , Brancos
5.
Ann Intern Med ; 177(5): 592-597, 2024 May.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38648643

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Redlining began in the 1930s with the Home Owners' Loan Corporation (HOLC); this discriminatory practice limited mortgage availability and reinforced concentrated poverty that still exists today. It is important to understand the potential health implications of this federally sanctioned segregation. OBJECTIVE: To examine the relationship between historical redlining policies and present-day nonsuicide firearm fatalities. DESIGN: Maps from the HOLC were overlaid with incidence of nonsuicide firearm fatalities from 2014 to 2022. A multilevel negative binomial regression model tested the association between modern-day firearm fatalities and HOLC historical grading (A ["best"] to D ["hazardous"]), controlling for year, HOLC area-level demographics, and state-level factors as fixed effects and a random intercept for city. Incidence rates (IRs) per 100 000 persons, incidence rate ratios (IRRs), and adjusted IRRs (aIRRs) for each HOLC grade were estimated using A-rated areas as the reference. SETTING: 202 cities with areas graded by the HOLC in the 1930s. PARTICIPANTS: Population of the 8597 areas assessed by the HOLC. MEASUREMENTS: Nonsuicide firearm fatalities. RESULTS: From 2014 to 2022, a total of 41 428 nonsuicide firearm fatalities occurred in HOLC-graded areas. The firearm fatality rate increased as the HOLC grade progressed from A to D. In A-graded areas, the IR was 3.78 (95% CI, 3.52 to 4.05) per 100 000 persons per year. In B-graded areas, the IR, IRR, and aIRR relative to A areas were 7.43 (CI, 7.24 to 7.62) per 100 000 persons per year, 2.12 (CI, 1.94 to 2.32), and 1.42 (CI, 1.30 to 1.54), respectively. In C-graded areas, these values were 11.24 (CI, 11.08 to 11.40) per 100 000 persons per year, 3.78 (CI, 3.47 to 4.12), and 1.90 (CI, 1.75 to 2.07), respectively. In D-graded areas, these values were 16.26 (CI, 16.01 to 16.52) per 100 000 persons per year, 5.51 (CI, 5.05 to 6.02), and 2.07 (CI, 1.90 to 2.25), respectively. LIMITATION: The Gun Violence Archive relies on media coverage and police reports. CONCLUSION: Discriminatory redlining policies from 80 years ago are associated with nonsuicide firearm fatalities today. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: Fred Lovejoy Housestaff Research and Education Fund.


Assuntos
Armas de Fogo , Ferimentos por Arma de Fogo , Humanos , Armas de Fogo/legislação & jurisprudência , Ferimentos por Arma de Fogo/mortalidade , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia , Incidência
6.
Ann Intern Med ; 177(9): 1157-1169, 2024 Sep.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39074371

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Racial disparities in firearm injury death in the United States are well established. Less is known about the magnitude of nonfatal and total firearm injury. OBJECTIVE: To combine health care data with death certificate data to estimate total firearm injuries in various racial and ethnic groups. DESIGN: Retrospective, cross-sectional study. SETTING: Fatal injury data were collected from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Data on nonfatal injuries were collected from the Nationwide Emergency Department Sample (NEDS), a 20% stratified sample of U.S. emergency department visits, weighted to provide national estimates for the United States, 2019 to 2020. PARTICIPANTS: All firearm injuries and deaths in the United States. INTERVENTION: Race and ethnicity were classified into 5 mutually exclusive categories: Asian or Pacific Islander, Black, Hispanic, Native American, and White. International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision codes were used to classify firearm injury intent. MEASUREMENTS: Incidence of fatal and nonfatal injury in the U.S. population and case-fatality ratios (CFRs). RESULTS: There were 252 376 total firearm injuries, including 84 908 deaths from firearm injures. Of all firearm injuries, 37.8% were unintentional, 37.3% were assault related, 21.0% were self-harm, and 1.3% were law enforcement associated. Self-harm had the highest CFRs (90.9% overall). Unintentional injuries accounted for just 1021 (1.2%) deaths but 94 433 (56.4%) of nonfatal injuries. Rates of self-harm were highest among White persons (11.0 per 100 000 population in 2020) followed by Native Americans (8.6 per 100 000). Rates of assault were highest among Black persons (70.1 per 100 000), as were unintentional injuries (56.1 per 100 000). LIMITATION: Findings are limited by the accuracy of discharge coding in NEDS, particularly regarding injury intent and patient race and ethnicity. CONCLUSION: From 2019 to 2020, the total burden of firearm injuries amounts to an average of 1 injury every 4 minutes and 1 death every 12 minutes in the United States. Racial disparities in firearm injury death are mirrored in nonfatal injury. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: None.


Assuntos
Etnicidade , Grupos Raciais , Ferimentos por Arma de Fogo , Adolescente , Adulto , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Estudos Transversais , Serviço Hospitalar de Emergência/estatística & dados numéricos , Etnicidade/estatística & dados numéricos , Armas de Fogo/estatística & dados numéricos , Incidência , Grupos Raciais/estatística & dados numéricos , Estudos Retrospectivos , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia , Ferimentos por Arma de Fogo/etnologia , Ferimentos por Arma de Fogo/mortalidade , Recém-Nascido , Lactente , Pré-Escolar , Criança , Adulto Jovem
7.
Am J Epidemiol ; 193(7): 1002-1009, 2024 07 08.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38375682

RESUMO

This article introduces bayesian spatial smoothing models for disease mapping-a specific application of small area estimation where the full universe of data is known-to a wider audience of public health professionals using firearm suicide as a motivating example. Besag, York, and Mollié (BYM) Poisson spatial and space-time smoothing models were fitted to firearm suicide counts for the years 2014-2018. County raw death rates in 2018 ranged from 0 to 24.81 deaths per 10 000 people. However, the highest mortality rate was highly unstable, based on only 2 deaths in a population of approximately 800, and 80.5% of contiguous US counties experienced fewer than 10 firearm suicide deaths and were thus suppressed. Spatially smoothed county firearm suicide mortality estimates ranged from 0.06 to 4.05 deaths per 10 000 people and could be reported for all counties. The space-time smoothing model produced similar estimates with narrower credible intervals as it allowed counties to gain precision from adjacent neighbors and their own counts in adjacent years. bayesian spatial smoothing methods are a useful tool for evaluating spatial health disparities in small geographies where small numbers can result in highly variable rate estimates, and new estimation techniques in R software have made fitting these models more accessible to researchers.


Assuntos
Teorema de Bayes , Armas de Fogo , Suicídio , Humanos , Armas de Fogo/estatística & dados numéricos , Suicídio/estatística & dados numéricos , Análise Espacial , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia , Modelos Estatísticos
8.
Am J Epidemiol ; 193(8): 1061-1065, 2024 Aug 05.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38583934

RESUMO

Strong epidemiologic evidence from ecological and individual-level studies in the United States supports the claim that access to firearms substantially increases the risk of dying by suicide, homicide, and firearm accidents. Less certain is how well particular interventions work to prevent these deaths and other firearm-related harms. Given the limits of existing data to study firearm violence and the infeasibility of conducting randomized trials of firearm access, it is important to do the best we can with the data we already have. We argue that falsification strategies are a critical-yet underutilized-component of any such analytical approach. The falsification strategies we focus on are versions of "negative controls" analyses in which we expect that an analysis should yield a null causal effect, and thus where not obtaining a null effect estimate raises questions about the assumptions underlying causal interpretation of a study's findings. We illustrate the saliency of this issue today with examples drawn from studies published in leading peer-reviewed journals within the last 5 years. Collecting rich, high-quality data always takes time, urgent as the need may be. On the other hand, doing better with the data we already have can start right now.


Assuntos
Armas de Fogo , Violência com Arma de Fogo , Humanos , Violência com Arma de Fogo/prevenção & controle , Violência com Arma de Fogo/estatística & dados numéricos , Estados Unidos , Armas de Fogo/legislação & jurisprudência , Interpretação Estatística de Dados , Homicídio/prevenção & controle , Homicídio/estatística & dados numéricos , Ferimentos por Arma de Fogo/prevenção & controle , Ferimentos por Arma de Fogo/epidemiologia
9.
Epidemiol Rev ; 46(1): 1-22, 2024 Sep 16.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38324739

RESUMO

For lethal means safety counseling (LMSC) interventions to reduce population-level suicide rates, interventions must be deployed across many settings and populations. We conducted a systematic search in 6 databases to review the current state of LMSC interventions across study designs, settings, intervention providers, populations, and injury prevention levels (eg, universal). Eligibility criteria were as follows: any individual or group receiving an LMSC intervention involving a human-to-human component aiming to influence adult behaviors related to lethal suicide methods, and outcome assessment of storage behaviors and/or suicidal self-directed violence (SDV). Risk of bias was assessed using the Effective Public Health Practice Project quality assessment tool. A descriptive synthesis approach was used for analysis. Twenty-two studies were included that reported medication- and/or firearm-storage behaviors and/or SDV after LMSC. Of the 19 studies assessing behavioral change, 14 reported a significant improvement in safe storage behaviors, and all studies measuring acceptability reported that participants found the interventions favorable. The quality of evidence was limited. No studies were rated low risk of bias, and 77% were rated high risk of bias. There was substantial heterogeneity in the settings, populations, injury prevention levels, delivery methods, and intervention elements. Many included studies focused on caregivers of pediatric populations, and few studies assessed SDV outcomes. Higher-quality trials conducted across a variety of settings, particularly those focusing on adults at risk of suicide, are needed. This review was preregistered with the International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (no. CRD42021230668).


Assuntos
Aconselhamento , Prevenção do Suicídio , Humanos , Segurança , Armas de Fogo , Violência/prevenção & controle , Suicídio
10.
J Pediatr ; 264: 113767, 2024 Jan.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37802387

RESUMO

OBJECTIVE: To assess pre and postself-reported counseling outcomes for Safer: Storing Firearms Prevents Harm, an American Academy of Pediatrics universal firearm safe storage counseling training for pediatric clinicians providing health maintenance in outpatient settings. STUDY DESIGN: Safer was developed by a national multidisciplinary committee of firearm injury prevention experts with input from firearm-owning families and launched in June 2021. Pediatric clinicians completed baseline and 1-month posttraining surveys after signing up for the Pedialink course from February through June 2022. Primary outcomes included self-reported measures of counseling self-efficacy and frequency. Wilcoxon matched-pairs signed-rank tests compared outcome distributions at baseline and follow-up. Two adjusted, multilevel mixed-effects regression models were conducted. RESULTS: Of 230 clinicians who completed baseline surveys, 146 (64%) completed 1-month postsurveys. Regional representation included Southeast = 67 (46%), Northeast = 24 (16%), Midwest = 21 (14%), Pacific = 15 (10%), Southwest = 11 (8%), and Rocky Mountain = 8 (5%). At follow-up, there was significant improvement in both the distribution of self-efficacy (median [first Quartile-third Quartile = 50 [20-70] at baseline and 80 [60-85] at follow-up; P < .001) and self-reported counseling frequency (median [first Quartile-third Quartile] = 10 [0-50] at baseline and 50 [10-80] at follow-up; P < .001). Adjusted regression model results suggested that self-efficacy significantly improved from baseline to follow-up (time coefficient 25.3; 95% CI = [21.0, 29.5]; P < .001) as did counseling frequency (time coefficient 13.6; 95% CI = [9.2, 18.0]; P < .001). CONCLUSIONS: Significant improvement in self-reported counseling self-efficacy and frequency was demonstrated 1 month following Safer training.


Assuntos
Armas de Fogo , Ferimentos por Arma de Fogo , Humanos , Criança , Estados Unidos , Segurança , Aconselhamento , Inquéritos e Questionários
11.
J Pediatr ; 270: 114008, 2024 Jul.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38479639

RESUMO

OBJECTIVE: To examine the longitudinal relationship between exposure to adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) in early life and trajectories of firearm exposure from early to middle childhood (ages 5-9 years old). STUDY DESIGN: Data from the Longitudinal Studies of Child Abuse and Neglect (LOGSCAN) study were used. The LONGSCAN study was a prospective study in the United States and contained data from 1354 children from age 4 to age 18 years old. Exposure to ACEs was measured through the wave 1 interview (age 5 years old) and trajectories of firearm exposure were created using data from waves 1 (age 5 years old) and two (age 9 years old). RESULTS: Two trajectories of firearm exposure in childhood were identified: a low exposure group and a group with persistently-high firearm exposure from ages 5 to 9 years old. ACEs were associated with membership in the high exposure group and children with four or more ACEs had over twice the odds of membership in the high exposure group compared with children with zero ACEs. CONCLUSION: ACEs exposure in early childhood is associated with persistently-high exposure to firearms from early to middle childhood. This finding highlights the need for pediatricians to consider screening for both ACEs and firearm exposure in routine examinations, as well as the need for future research to identify and evaluate interventions intended to address exposure to adversity and firearms.


Assuntos
Experiências Adversas da Infância , Armas de Fogo , Humanos , Criança , Pré-Escolar , Masculino , Experiências Adversas da Infância/estatística & dados numéricos , Feminino , Armas de Fogo/estatística & dados numéricos , Estudos Prospectivos , Estudos Longitudinais , Adolescente , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia , Maus-Tratos Infantis/estatística & dados numéricos , Ferimentos por Arma de Fogo/epidemiologia
12.
J Pediatr ; 269: 113975, 2024 Jun.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38401786

RESUMO

OBJECTIVE: To determine if firearm ownership is positively related to elevated child lead levels at a state-level, even when accounting for other sources of lead. STUDY DESIGN: For this cross-sectional ecological study, we investigated whether household firearm ownership rates (a proxy for firearm-related lead exposure) was associated with the prevalence of elevated child blood lead levels in 44 US States between 2012 and 2018. To account for potential confounding, we adjusted for other known lead exposures, poverty rate, population density, race, and calendar year. To address missing data, we used multiple imputation by chained equations. RESULTS: Prevalence of elevated child blood lead positively correlated with household firearm ownership and established predictors of lead exposure. In fully adjusted negative binomial regression models, child blood lead was positively associated with household firearm ownership and older housing; each IQR (14%) increase in household firearm ownership rate was associated with a 41% higher prevalence of childhood elevated blood lead (prevalence ratio: 1.41, 95% CI: 1.11-1.79). CONCLUSION: These data provide state-level evidence that firearms may be an important source of child lead exposure. More research is needed to substantiate this relationship and identify modifiable pathways of exposure at the individual level.


Assuntos
Exposição Ambiental , Armas de Fogo , Chumbo , Propriedade , Humanos , Armas de Fogo/estatística & dados numéricos , Chumbo/sangue , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia , Estudos Transversais , Masculino , Feminino , Pré-Escolar , Exposição Ambiental/efeitos adversos , Exposição Ambiental/estatística & dados numéricos , Criança , Propriedade/estatística & dados numéricos , Intoxicação por Chumbo/epidemiologia , Intoxicação por Chumbo/sangue , Prevalência , Lactente
13.
Epidemiology ; 35(4): 458-468, 2024 Jul 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38597728

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Evidence about which firearm policies work, to what extent, and for whom is hotly debated, perhaps partly because variation in research methodology has produced mixed and inconclusive effect estimates. We conducted a scoping review of firearm policy research in the health sciences in the United States, focusing on methodological considerations for causal inference. METHODS: We identified original, empirical articles indexed in PubMed from 1 January 2000 to 1 September 2021 that examined any of 18 prespecified firearm policies. We extracted key study components, including policy type(s) examined, policy operationalization, outcomes, study setting and population, study approach and design, causal language, and whether and how authors acknowledged potential sources of bias. RESULTS: We screened 7733 articles and included 124. A plurality of studies used a legislative score as their primary exposure (n = 39; 32%) and did not examine change in policies over time (n = 47; 38%). Most examined firearm homicide (n = 51; 41%) or firearm suicide (n = 40; 32%) as outcomes. One-third adjusted for other firearm policies (n = 41; 33%). Three studies (2%) explicitly mentioned that their goal was to estimate causal effects, but over half used language implying causality (n = 72; 58%). Most acknowledged causal identification assumptions of temporality (n = 91; 73%) and exchangeability (n = 111; 90%); other assumptions were less often acknowledged. One-third of studies included bias analyses (n = 42; 34%). CONCLUSIONS: We identified a range of methodologic approaches in firearm policy research in the health sciences. Acknowledging the imitations of data availability and quality, we identify opportunities to improve causal inferences about and reporting on the effects of firearm policies on population health.


Assuntos
Armas de Fogo , Armas de Fogo/legislação & jurisprudência , Armas de Fogo/estatística & dados numéricos , Humanos , Estados Unidos , Homicídio/estatística & dados numéricos , Projetos de Pesquisa , Política de Saúde , Suicídio/estatística & dados numéricos
14.
Milbank Q ; 102(1): 97-121, 2024 Mar.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37818775

RESUMO

Policy Points Promoting healthy public policies is a national priority, but state policy adoption is driven by a complex set of internal and external factors. This study employs new social network methods to identify underlying connections among states and to predict the likelihood of new firearm-related policy adoption given changes to this interstate network. This approach could be used to assess the likelihood that a given state will adopt a specific new firearm-related law and to identify points of influence that could either inhibit or promote wider diffusion of specific laws. CONTEXT: US states are largely responsible for the regulation of firearms within their borders. Each state has developed a different legal environment with regard to firearms based on different values and beliefs of citizens, legislators, governors, and other stakeholders. Predicting the types of firearm laws that states may adopt is therefore challenging. METHODS: We propose a parsimonious model for this complex process and provide credible predictions of state firearm laws by estimating the likelihood they will be passed in the future. We employ a temporal exponential-family random graph model to capture the bipartite state law-state network data over time, allowing for complex interdependencies and their temporal evolution. Using data on all state firearm laws over the period 1979-2020, we estimate these models' parameters while controlling for factors associated with firearm law adoption, including internal and external state characteristics. Predictions of future firearm law passage are then calculated based on a number of scenarios to assess the effects of a given type of firearm law being passed in the future by a given state. FINDINGS: Results show that a set of internal state factors are important predictors of firearm law adoption, but the actions of neighboring states may be just as important. Analysis of scenarios provide insights into the mechanics of how adoption of laws by specific states (or groups of states) may perturb the rest of the network structure and alter the likelihood that new laws would become more (or less) likely to continue to diffuse to other states. CONCLUSIONS: The methods used here outperform standard approaches for policy diffusion studies and afford predictions that are superior to those of an ensemble of machine learning tools. The proposed framework could have applications for the study of policy diffusion in other domains.


Assuntos
Armas de Fogo , Estados Unidos , Política Pública , Previsões , Proteínas Repressoras , Homicídio
15.
Am J Obstet Gynecol ; 231(1): B9-B11, 2024 07.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38599477

RESUMO

Position: The Society for Maternal-Fetal Medicine acknowledges gun violence as a public health crisis in the United States, with a substantial impact on pregnant and postpartum people. We recognize the urgent need for a robust, equitable, data-driven approach to mitigate the impact of access to firearms and accompanying violence on pregnant and postpartum individuals and communities. As such, the Society for Maternal-Fetal Medicine endorses the following policy principles.


Assuntos
Violência com Arma de Fogo , Sociedades Médicas , Humanos , Feminino , Gravidez , Estados Unidos , Violência com Arma de Fogo/prevenção & controle , Obstetrícia , Armas de Fogo/legislação & jurisprudência
16.
Am J Public Health ; 114(4): 387-397, 2024 04.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38478866

RESUMO

Objectives. To describe all-outcome injurious shootings by police and compare characteristics of fatal versus nonfatal injurious shootings nationally. Methods. From July 2021 to April 2023, we manually reviewed publicly available records on all 2015-2020 injurious shootings by US police, identified from Gun Violence Archive. We estimated injury frequency, case fatality rates, and relative odds of death by incident and victim characteristics. Results. A total of 1769 people were injured annually in shootings by police, 55% fatally. When a shooting injury occurred, odds of fatality were 46% higher following dispatched responses than police-initiated responses. Injuries associated with physically threatening or threat-making behaviors, behavioral health needs, and well-being checks were most frequently fatal. Relative to White victims, Black victims were overrepresented but had 35% lower odds of fatal injury when shot. Conclusions. This first multiyear, nationwide analysis of injurious shootings by US police suggests that injury disparities are underestimated by fatal shootings alone. Nonpolicing responses to social needs may prevent future injuries. Public Health Implications. We call for enhanced reporting systems, comprehensive evaluation of emerging reforms, and targeted investment in social services for equitable injury prevention. (Am J Public Health. 2024;114(4):387-397. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2023.307560).


Assuntos
Armas de Fogo , Violência com Arma de Fogo , Ferimentos por Arma de Fogo , Humanos , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia , Polícia , Razão de Chances , Homicídio
17.
Am J Public Health ; 114(8): 805-813, 2024 08.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38870430

RESUMO

Objectives. To examine the independent and joint effects of state legislation on minimum age for purchasing handguns and background checks on the suicide of young adults aged 18 to 20 years. Methods. We used negative binomial regressions with fixed effects for year and generalized estimating equations for state to estimate the effects of state legislation on annual counts of firearm, nonfirearm, and total young adult suicides in all 50 US states from 1991 to 2020. Results. Minimum age laws decreased the incidence rate of firearm suicide among young adults, an effect that was amplified in states with permit to purchase laws; there was no effect on the nonfirearm or total suicide rate. Permit to purchase laws significantly decreased the young adult firearm suicide incidence rate by 39% (incidence rate ratio [IRR] = 0.61; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.51, 0.74) and the overall suicide incidence rate by 14% (IRR = 0.86; 95% CI = 0.75, 0.99), with no effect on the nonfirearm suicide rate. Conclusions. Permit to purchase laws are a more promising avenue for reducing young adult suicides than are age-based restrictions. (Am J Public Health. 2024;114(8):805-813. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2024.307689).


Assuntos
Armas de Fogo , Suicídio , Humanos , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia , Armas de Fogo/legislação & jurisprudência , Armas de Fogo/estatística & dados numéricos , Adulto Jovem , Adolescente , Suicídio/estatística & dados numéricos , Suicídio/tendências , Masculino , Fatores Etários , Feminino
18.
Am J Public Health ; 114(10): 1097-1109, 2024 Oct.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39146518

RESUMO

Objectives. To assess differences in contextual factors by intent among pediatric firearm injury patients and determine factors associated with data missingness. Methods. We retrospectively queried the American College of Surgeons Firearm Study database (March 1, 2021-February 28, 2022) for patients aged 18 years or younger. We stratified preinjury, firearm-related, and event-related factors by intent and compared them by using Fisher exact, χ2, or 1-way analysis of variance testing. Secondary analysis estimated the adjusted odds of missingness by using generalized linear modeling with binominal logit link. Results. Among 17 395 patients, 2974 (17.1%) were aged 18 years or younger; 1966 (66.1%) were injured by assault, 579 (19.5%) unintentionally, and 76 (2.6%) by self-inflicted means. Most contextual factors differed by intent, including proportion of youths with previous adverse childhood experiences, mental illness, and violent assaults or injury, firearm type and access, perpetrator relationship, and injury location. In adjusted analyses, age, trauma center designation, intent, and admission status were associated with missingness. Conclusions. Contextual factors related to pediatric firearm injury vary by intent. Specific predictors associated with missingness may inform improved future data collection. Public Health Implications. Contextual factors related to pediatric firearm injury can be obtained in a systematic manner nationally to inform targeted interventions. (Am J Public Health. 2024;114(10):1097-1109. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2024.307754).


Assuntos
Armas de Fogo , Ferimentos por Arma de Fogo , Humanos , Ferimentos por Arma de Fogo/epidemiologia , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia , Adolescente , Masculino , Feminino , Criança , Estudos Retrospectivos , Armas de Fogo/estatística & dados numéricos , Pré-Escolar , Violência/estatística & dados numéricos , Lactente , Experiências Adversas da Infância/estatística & dados numéricos
19.
MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep ; 73(23): 523-528, 2024 Jun 13.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38870466

RESUMO

Secure firearm storage might help reduce access by children and other unauthorized users and the related risk for injury or death. Information about state-specific prevalence of firearm storage practices can be used to develop secure storage messages and programs; however, such information is often unavailable. Data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, by respondent characteristics, were used to estimate prevalence of keeping firearms in or around the home and related storage practices for eight states that administered the firearm safety module in 2021 or 2022. Overall, 18.4% (California) to 50.6% (Alaska) of respondents reported that a firearm was kept in or around their home. Among those with a firearm in or around the home, 19.5% (Minnesota) to 43.8% (North Carolina) reported that a firearm was stored loaded. Across all eight states, approximately one half of those with a loaded firearm stored at least one loaded firearm unlocked. Among respondents with a child and a loaded firearm in the home, 25.2% (Ohio) to 41.4% (Alaska) reported that a loaded firearm was stored unlocked. Variability in firearm storage practices highlights the importance of local data and suggests opportunities to tailor prevention efforts to specific population groups to reduce risk for firearm handling by children without adult supervision, and other unauthorized persons.


Assuntos
Sistema de Vigilância de Fator de Risco Comportamental , Armas de Fogo , Humanos , Armas de Fogo/estatística & dados numéricos , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia , Adulto , Feminino , Adolescente , Adulto Jovem , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Idoso , Segurança , Criança
20.
MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep ; 73(24): 551-557, 2024 Jun 20.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38900705

RESUMO

Firearm-related deaths and injuries have increased in recent years. Comprehensive and timely information on firearm injuries and the communities and geographic locations most affected by firearm violence is crucial for guiding prevention activities. However, traditional surveillance systems for firearm injury, which are mostly based on hospital encounters and mortality-related data, often lack information on the location where the shooting occurred. This study examined annual and monthly rates of emergency medical services (EMS) encounters for firearm injury per 100,000 total EMS encounters during January 2019-September 2023 in 858 counties in 27 states, by patient characteristics and characteristics of the counties where the injuries occurred. Overall, annual rates of firearm injury EMS encounters per 100,000 total EMS encounters ranged from 222.7 in 2019 to 294.9 in 2020; rates remained above prepandemic levels through 2023. Rates were consistently higher among males than females. Rates stratified by race and ethnicity were highest among non-Hispanic Black or African American persons; rates stratified by age group were highest among persons aged 15-24 years. The greatest percentage increases in annual rates occurred in urban counties and in counties with higher prevalence of severe housing problems, higher income inequality ratios, and higher rates of unemployment. States and communities can use the timely and location-specific data in EMS records to develop and implement comprehensive firearm injury prevention strategies to address the economic, social, and physical conditions that contribute to the risk for violence, including improvements to physical environments, secure firearm storage, and strengthened social and economic supports.


Assuntos
Serviços Médicos de Emergência , Ferimentos por Arma de Fogo , Humanos , Adolescente , Adulto , Adulto Jovem , Feminino , Ferimentos por Arma de Fogo/epidemiologia , Masculino , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Serviços Médicos de Emergência/estatística & dados numéricos , Criança , Idoso , Pré-Escolar , Armas de Fogo/estatística & dados numéricos , Lactente
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