COVID-19 healthcare success or failure? Crisis management explained by dynamic capabilities.

INTRODUCTION: This paper presents a structured review of the use of crisis management, specifically examining the frameworks of surge capacity, resilience, and dynamic capabilities in healthcare organizations. Thereafter, a novel deductive method based on the framework of dynamic capabilities is developed and applied to investigate crisis management in two hospital cases during the COVID-19 pandemic. BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic distinguishes itself from many other disasters due to its global spread, uncertainty, and prolonged duration. While crisis management in healthcare has often been explained using the surge capacity framework, the need for adaptability in an unfamiliar setting and different information flow makes the dynamic capabilities framework more useful. METHODS: The dynamic capabilities framework's microfoundations as categories is utilized in this paper for a deductive analysis of crisis management during the COVID-19 pandemic in a multiple case study involving two Swedish public hospitals. A novel method, incorporating both dynamic and static capabilities across multiple organizational levels, is developed and explored. RESULTS: The case study results reveal the utilization of all dynamic capabilities with an increased emphasis at lower organizational levels and a higher prevalence of static capabilities at the regional level. In Case A, lower-level managers perceived the hospital manager as brave, supporting sensing, seizing, and transformation at the department level. However, due to information gaps, sensing did not reach regional crisis management, reducing their power. In Case B, with contingency plans not initiated, the hospital faced a lack of management and formed a department manager group for patient care. Seizing was robust at the department level, but regional levels struggled with decisions on crisis versus normal management. The novel method effectively visualizes differences between organizational levels and cases, shedding light on the extent of cooperation or lack thereof within the organization. CONCLUSION: The researchers conclude that crisis management in a pandemic, benefits from distributed management, attributed to higher dynamic capabilities at lower organizational levels. A pandemic contingency plan should differ from a plan for accidents, supporting the development of routines for the new situation and continuous improvement. The Dynamic Capabilities framework proved successful for exploration in this context.

Timing social distancing to avert unmanageable COVID-19 hospital surges.

Following the April 16, 2020 release of the Opening Up America Again guidelines for relaxing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) social distancing policies, local leaders are concerned about future pandemic waves and lack robust strategies for tracking and suppressing transmission. Here, we present a strategy for triggering short-term shelter-in-place orders when hospital admissions surpass a threshold. We use stochastic optimization to derive triggers that ensure hospital surges will not exceed local capacity and lockdowns are as short as possible. For example, Austin, Texas-the fastest-growing large city in the United States-has adopted a COVID-19 response strategy based on this method. Assuming that the relaxation of social distancing increases the risk of infection sixfold, the optimal strategy will trigger a total of 135 d (90% prediction interval: 126 d to 141 d) of sheltering, allow schools to open in the fall, and result in an expected 2,929 deaths (90% prediction interval: 2,837 to 3,026) by September 2021, which is 29% of the annual mortality rate. In the months ahead, policy makers are likely to face difficult choices, and the extent of public restraint and cocooning of vulnerable populations may save or cost thousands of lives.

Variation in Initial U.S. Hospital Responses to the Coronavirus Disease 2019 Pandemic.

OBJECTIVES: The coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic has strained many healthcare systems. In response, U.S. hospitals altered their care delivery systems, but there are few data regarding specific structural changes. Understanding these changes is important to guide interpretation of outcomes and inform pandemic preparedness. We sought to characterize emergency responses across hospitals in the United States over time and in the context of local case rates early in the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic. DESIGN: We surveyed hospitals from a national acute care trials group regarding operational and structural changes made in response to the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic from January to August 2020. We collected prepandemic characteristics and changes to hospital system, space, staffing, and equipment during the pandemic. We compared the timing of these changes with county-level coronavirus disease 2019 case rates. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: U.S. hospitals participating in the Prevention and Early Treatment of Acute Lung Injury Network Coronavirus Disease 2019 Observational study. Site investigators at each hospital collected local data. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Forty-five sites participated (94% response rate). System-level changes (incident command activation and elective procedure cancellation) occurred at nearly all sites, preceding rises in local case rates. The peak inpatient census during the pandemic was greater than the prior hospital bed capacity in 57% of sites with notable regional variation. Nearly half (49%) expanded ward capacity, and 63% expanded ICU capacity, with nearly all bed expansion achieved through repurposing of clinical spaces. Two-thirds of sites adapted staffing to care for patients with coronavirus disease 2019, with 48% implementing tiered staffing models, 49% adding temporary physicians, nurses, or respiratory therapists, and 30% changing the ratios of physicians or nurses to patients. CONCLUSIONS: The coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic prompted widespread system-level changes, but front-line clinical care varied widely according to specific hospital needs and infrastructure. Linking operational changes to care delivery processes is a necessary step to understand the impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic on patient outcomes.

Upgrades to intensive care: The effects of COVID-19 on decision-making in the emergency department.

INTRODUCTION: The initial surge of critically ill patients in the COVID-19 pandemic severely disrupted processes at acute care hospitals. This study examines the frequency and causes for patients upgraded to intensive care unit (ICU) level care following admission from the emergency department (ED) to non-critical care units. METHODS: The number of ICU upgrades per month was determined, including the percentage of upgrades noted to have non-concordant diagnoses. Charts with non-concordant diagnoses were examined in detail as to the ED medical decision-making, clinical circumstances surrounding the upgrade, and presence of a diagnosis of COVID-19. For each case, a cognitive bias was assigned. RESULTS: The percentage of upgraded cases with non-concordant diagnoses increased from a baseline range of 14-20% to 41.3%. The majority of upgrades were due to premature closure (72.2%), anchoring (61.1%), and confirmation bias (55.6%). CONCLUSION: Consistent with the behavioral literature, this suggests that stressful ambient conditions affect cognitive reasoning processes.

Surge Planning and Implementation: A Required Competency for Today's Nurse Leaders.

The ability to respond effectively and efficiently during times of crisis, including a pandemic, has emerged as a competency for nurse leaders. This article describes one institution's experience using the American Organization of Nurse Leaders Competencies for Nurse Executives in operationalizing the concept of surge capacity.

The Virtual Hospital: An Innovative Solution for Disaster Response.

Like any disaster, the COVID-19 pandemic has presented significant challenges to healthcare systems, especially the threat of insufficient bed capacity and resources. Hospitals have been required to plan for and implement innovative approaches to expand hospital inpatient and intensive care capacity. This article presents how one of the largest healthcare systems in the United States leveraged existing technology infrastructure to create a virtual hospital that extended care beyond the walls of the "brick and mortar" hospital.

[The disaster task force medical officer as a pivotal decision maker in the superordinate pandemic hospital capacity management : A field report covering the initial COVID-19 surge in a Bavarian district]. / Der Ärztliche Leiter Führungsgruppe Katastrophenschutz als zentrale Entscheidungsinstanz bei der Steuerung regionaler Krankenhauskapazitäten in der Pandemie : Ein Erfahrungsbericht zur ersten Welle der COVID-19-Pandemie in einem bayerischen Regierungsbezirk.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: During the initial phase of the COVID-19 pandemic the government of the state of Bavaria, Germany, declared a state of emergency for its entire territory for the first time in history. Some areas in eastern Bavaria were among the most severely affected communities in Germany, prompting authorities and hospitals to build up capacities for a surge of COVID-19 patients. In some areas, intensive care unit (ICU) capacities were heavily engaged, which occasionally made a redistribution of patients necessary. MATERIAL AND METHODS: For managing COVID-19-related hospital capacities and patient allocation, crisis management squads in Bavaria were expanded by disaster task force medical officers ("Ärztlicher Leiter Führungsgruppe Katastrophenschutz" [MO]) with substantial executive authority. The authors report their experiences as MO concerning the superordinate patient allocation management in the district of Upper Palatinate (Oberpfalz) in eastern Bavaria. RESULTS: By abandoning routine patient care and building up additional ICU resources, surge capacity for the treatment of COVID-19 patients was generated in hospitals. In parts of the Oberpfalz, ICU capacities were almost entirely occupied by patients with corona virus infections, making reallocation to other hospitals within the district and beyond necessary. The MO managed patient pathways in an escalating manner by defining local (within the region of responsibility of a single MO), regional (within the district), and cross-regional (over district borders) reallocation lanes, as needed. When regional or cross-regional reallocation lanes had to be established, an additional management level located at the district government was involved. Within the determined reallocation lanes, emitting and receiving hospitals mutually agreed on any patient transfer without explicitly involving the MO, thereby maintaining the established interhospital routine transfer procedures. The number of patients and available treatment resources at each hospital were monitored with the help of a web-based treatment capacity registry. If indicated, reallocation lanes were dynamically revised according to the present situation. To oppose further virus spreading in nursing homes, the state government prohibited patient allocation to these facilities, which led to considerably longer hospital length of stay of convalescent elderly and/or dependent patients. In parallel to the flattening of the COVID-19 incidence curve, routine hospital patient care could be re-established in a stepwise manner. CONCLUSION: Patient allocation during the state of emergency by the MO sought to keep up routine interhospital reallocation procedures as much as possible, thereby reducing management time and effort. Occasionally, difficulties were observed during patient allocations crossing district borders, if other MO followed different management principles. The nursing home blockade and conflicting financial interests of hospitals posed challenges to the work of the disaster task force medical officers.

An Evidence-Based Strategy to Scale Vaccination in Canada.

Provincial health systems have been challenged by the surge in healthcare demands caused by the COVID-19 pandemic; the COVID-19 vaccine rollout across the country has further added to these challenges. A successful vaccination campaign is widely viewed as the only way to overcome the COVID-19 pandemic, placing greater urgency on the need for a rapid vaccination strategy. In this paper, we present emerging findings, from a national research study, that document the key challenges faced by current vaccine rollout strategies, which include procurement and leadership strategies, citizen engagement and limitations in supply chain capacity. These findings are used to inform a scalable vaccine strategy comprising collaborative leadership, mobilization of an integrated workforce and a digitally enabled supply chain strategy. The goal of vaccinating the entire Canadian population in the next few months can be achieved when supported by such a strategy.

Coronavirus Disease Model to Inform Transmission-Reducing Measures and Health System Preparedness, Australia.

The ability of health systems to cope with coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases is of major concern. In preparation, we used clinical pathway models to estimate healthcare requirements for COVID-19 patients in the context of broader public health measures in Australia. An age- and risk-stratified transmission model of COVID-19 demonstrated that an unmitigated epidemic would dramatically exceed the capacity of the health system of Australia over a prolonged period. Case isolation and contact quarantine alone are insufficient to constrain healthcare needs within feasible levels of expansion of health sector capacity. Overlaid social restrictions must be applied over the course of the epidemic to ensure systems do not become overwhelmed and essential health sector functions, including care of COVID-19 patients, can be maintained. Attention to the full pathway of clinical care is needed, along with ongoing strengthening of capacity.

Caring for Critically Ill Adults With Coronavirus Disease 2019 in a PICU: Recommendations by Dual Trained Intensivists.

OBJECTIVE: In the midst of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 pandemic, which causes coronavirus disease 2019, there is a recognized need to expand critical care services and beds beyond the traditional boundaries. There is considerable concern that widespread infection will result in a surge of critically ill patients that will overwhelm our present adult ICU capacity. In this setting, one proposal to add "surge capacity" has been the use of PICU beds and physicians to care for these critically ill adults. DESIGN: Narrative review/perspective. SETTING: Not applicable. PATIENTS: Not applicable. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: The virus's high infectivity and prolonged asymptomatic shedding have resulted in an exponential growth in the number of cases in the United States within the past weeks with many (up to 6%) developing acute respiratory distress syndrome mandating critical care services. Coronavirus disease 2019 critical illness appears to be primarily occurring in adults. Although pediatric intensivists are well versed in the care of acute respiratory distress syndrome from viral pneumonia, the care of differing aged adult populations presents some unique challenges. In this statement, a team of adult and pediatric-trained critical care physicians provides guidance on common "adult" issues that may be encountered in the care of these patients and how they can best be managed in a PICU. CONCLUSIONS: This concise scientific statement includes references to the most recent and relevant guidelines and clinical trials that shape management decisions. The intention is to assist PICUs and intensivists in rapidly preparing for care of adult coronavirus disease 2019 patients should the need arise.

Surge activation by the emergency department for COVID-19.

In March 2020, the American College of Emergency Physicians (ACEP) published a national strategic plan for COVID-19, which provides general guidelines yet leaves logistical details for institutions to determine. Key capabilities from this plan provided a crucial foundation for a 16-day Emergency Department (ED) surge planning process at one pediatric institution. This paper describes critical milestones and lessons learned during this brief period, including derivation of criteria for ED surge activation, a full-scale surge drill, and the resultant ED surge protocol. The framework of real-time evaluation was used throughout the planning process and involved constant and iterative synthesis of real-time feedback from multidisciplinary stakeholders for responsive decision-making. Ultimately, the objective of this paper is to provide timely and readily actionable information to other institutions seeking guidance to apply the ACEP strategic plan for COVID-19.

COVID-19 in obstetrics 2020: the experience at a New York City medical center.

The global spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus during the early months of 2020 was rapid and exposed vulnerabilities in health systems throughout the world. Obstetric SARS-CoV-2 disease was discovered to be largely asymptomatic carriage but included a small rate of severe disease with rapid decompensation in otherwise healthy women. Higher rates of hospitalization, Intensive Care Unit (ICU) admission and intubation, along with higher infection rates in minority and disadvantaged populations have been documented across regions. The operational gymnastics that occurred daily during the Covid-19 emergency needed to be translated to the obstetrics realm, both inpatient and ambulatory. Resources for adaptation to the public health crisis included workforce flexibility, frequent communication of operational and protocol changes for evaluation and management, and application of innovative ideas to meet the demand.

COVID-19: The Nursing Administration Response.

The COVID-19 pandemic presented an unprecedented opportunity to test the emergency management plan of one large urban teaching hospital. In this article, a detailed description of the hospital's surge planning process with lessons learned has been provided.

Institutional COVID-19 Protocols: Focused on Preparation, Safety, and Care Consolidation.

As the confirmed cases of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) continue to grow with over 1 million documented infections in the United States alone, researchers and health care workers race to find effective treatment options for this potentially fatal disease. Mortality remains high in patients whose disease course requires mechanical ventilation and admission to intensive care units. While focusing on therapies to decrease mortality is essential, we must also consider the logistical hurdles faced with regard to safely and effectively delivering treatment while limiting the risk of harm to hospital staff and other noninfected patients. In this article, we discuss aspects of surge planning, considerations in limiting health care worker exposure, the logistics of medication delivery in a uniform and consolidated manner, protocols for delivering emergent care in a rapidly deteriorating coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) patient, and safe practices for transporting infected patients.

Surge and Surge Capacity in Labor and Delivery Triage Volumes.

Objective To understand the variation in Labor and Delivery triage and delivery volumes in an urban tertiary care center and the types of visits associated with this variability. Study Design Retrospective descriptive study from the electronic medical record of 7,678 women presenting to Labor and Delivery Triage. Results Overall, there was a sixfold variation in Labor and Delivery triage visits (mean: 21, SD: 5.7, range: 6-36), with the least and most busy days having 28.6% and 171.4% of mean volume. Volumes varied 3.8- to 17-fold on weekdays and 4- to 11-fold on weekends. Significant variation in volume and triage evaluation type also occurred through the day, with admission for delivery as the predominate reason between 2 to 10 am, and outpatient assessments predominating thereafter (p < 0.001). Conclusion There is substantial variation in daily and hourly Labor and Delivery triage activity. If not planned for, this variability could strain available resources and negatively impact care. Further study of the effect of surges in Labor and Delivery triage and delivery volumes on pregnancy outcomes and of optimal methods to improve surge capacity in the Labor and Delivery setting are needed.

Declining trends in local health department preparedness capacities.

OBJECTIVES: We examined local health department (LHD) preparedness capacities in the context of participation in accreditation and other performance improvement efforts. MetHODS: We analyzed preparedness in 8 domains among LHDs responding to a preparedness capacity instrument from 2010 through 2012. Study groups included LHDs that (1) were exposed to a North Carolina state-based accreditation program, (2) participated in 1 or more performance improvement programs, and (3) had not participated in any performance improvement programs. We analyzed mean domain preparedness scores and applied a series of nonparametric Mann-Whitney Wilcoxon tests to determine whether preparedness domain scores differed significantly between study groups from 2010 to 2012. RESULTS: Preparedness capacity scores fluctuated and decreased significantly for all study groups for 2 domains: surveillance and investigation and legal preparedness. Significant decreases also occurred among participants for plans and protocols, communication, and incident command. Declines in capacity scores were not as great and less likely to be significant among North Carolina LHDs. CONCLUSIONS: Decreases in preparedness capacities over the 3 survey years may reflect multiple years of funding cuts and job losses, specifically for preparedness. An accreditation program may have a protective effect against such contextual factors.

Using Google Flu Trends data in forecasting influenza-like-illness related ED visits in Omaha, Nebraska.

INTRODUCTION: Emergency department (ED) visits increase during the influenza seasons. It is essential to identify statistically significant correlates in order to develop an accurate forecasting model for ED visits. Forecasting influenza-like-illness (ILI)-related ED visits can significantly help in developing robust resource management strategies at the EDs. METHODS: We first performed correlation analyses to understand temporal correlations between several predictors of ILI-related ED visits. We used the data available for Douglas County, the biggest county in Nebraska, for Omaha, the biggest city in the state, and for a major hospital in Omaha. The data set included total and positive influenza test results from the hospital (ie, Antigen rapid (Ag) and Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infection (RSV) tests); an Internet-based influenza surveillance system data, that is, Google Flu Trends, for both Nebraska and Omaha; total ED visits in Douglas County attributable to ILI; and ILI surveillance network data for Douglas County and Nebraska as the predictors and data for the hospital's ILI-related ED visits as the dependent variable. We used Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average and Holt Winters methods with3 linear regression models to forecast ILI-related ED visits at the hospital and evaluated model performances by comparing the root means square errors (RMSEs). RESULTS: Because of strong positive correlations with ILI-related ED visits between 2008 and 2012, we validated the use of Google Flu Trends data as a predictor in an ED influenza surveillance tool. Of the 5 forecasting models we have tested, linear regression models performed significantly better when Google Flu Trends data were included as a predictor. Regression models including Google Flu Trends data as a predictor variable have lower RMSE, and the lowest is achieved when all other variables are also included in the model in our forecasting experiments for the first 5 weeks of 2013 (with RMSE = 57.61). CONCLUSIONS: Google Flu Trends data statistically improve the performance of predicting ILI-related ED visits in Douglas County, and this result can be generalized to other communities. Timely and accurate estimates of ED volume during the influenza season, as well as during pandemic outbreaks, can help hospitals plan their ED resources accordingly and lower their costs by optimizing supplies and staffing and can improve service quality by decreasing ED wait times and overcrowding.