A new twenty-first century science for effective epidemic response.

With rapidly changing ecology, urbanization, climate change, increased travel and fragile public health systems, epidemics will become more frequent, more complex and harder to prevent and contain. Here we argue that our concept of epidemics must evolve from crisis response during discrete outbreaks to an integrated cycle of preparation, response and recovery. This is an opportunity to combine knowledge and skills from all over the world-especially at-risk and affected communities. Many disciplines need to be integrated, including not only epidemiology but also social sciences, research and development, diplomacy, logistics and crisis management. This requires a new approach to training tomorrow's leaders in epidemic prevention and response.

Diabetes and infection: review of the epidemiology, mechanisms and principles of treatment.

An association between diabetes and infection has been recognised for many years, with infection being an important cause of death and morbidity in people with diabetes. The COVID-19 pandemic has re-kindled an interest in the complex relationship between diabetes and infection. Some infections occur almost exclusively in people with diabetes, often with high mortality rates without early diagnosis and treatment. However, more commonly, diabetes is a complicating factor in many infections. A reciprocal relationship occurs whereby certain infections and their treatments may also increase the risk of diabetes. People with diabetes have a 1.5- to 4-fold increased risk of infection. The risks are the most pronounced for kidney infection, osteomyelitis and foot infection, but are also increased for pneumonia, influenza, tuberculosis, skin infection and general sepsis. Outcomes from infection are worse in people with diabetes, with the most notable example being a twofold higher rate of death from COVID-19. Hyperglycaemia has deleterious effects on the immune response. Vascular insufficiency and neuropathy, together with altered skin, mucosal and gut microbial colonisation, contribute to the increased risk of infection. Vaccination is important in people with diabetes although the efficacy of certain immunisations may be compromised, particularly in the presence of hyperglycaemia. The principles of treatment largely follow those of the general population with certain notable exceptions.

Impact of Treatment Response on Risk of Serious Infections in Patients With Crohn's Disease: Secondary Analysis of the PYRAMID Registry.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Traditional risk factors for serious infections with advanced therapies in patients with Crohn's disease (CD) have been assessed at baseline before starting therapy. We evaluated the impact of treatment response on the risk of serious infections in adalimumab-treated patients with CD through secondary analysis of the PYRAMID registry (NCT00524537). METHODS: We included patients with CD who initiated adalimumab and classified them as treatment responders (achieved steroid-free clinical remission based on patient-reported outcomes) vs nonresponders (not in steroid-free clinical remission) at 6 months after treatment initiation (landmark). We compared the risk of serious infections between responders vs nonresponders between 6 and 36 months after treatment initiation through stabilized inverse probability of treatment weighting Cox proportional hazards model. RESULTS: Of 1515 adalimumab-treated patients, 763 (50.4%) were classified as responders at 6 months (37 ± 13 y; 56% female; disease duration, 9.5 ± 8.5 y). Compared with nonresponders, responders were less likely to have moderate to severe symptoms (55.6% vs 33%), or require steroids (45.5% vs 17.3%) or opiates (6.6% vs 1.3%) at baseline, without any differences in disease location, perianal disease, and prior CD complications. During follow-up evaluation, using stabilized inverse probability of treatment weighting, responders were 34% less likely to experience serious infections compared with nonresponders (hazard ratio, 0.66; 95% CI, 0.46-0.96). Risk of gastrointestinal and extraintestinal infections was lower in responders vs nonresponders. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with CD who respond to adalimumab have a lower risk of developing serious infections compared with nonresponders. These findings underscore that initiation of advanced therapy for CD may lower the risk of serious infections through effective disease control and avoidance of corticosteroids.

Hospital-treated infectious diseases, infection burden and risk of Parkinson disease: An observational and Mendelian randomization study.

BACKGROUND: Experimental and cross-sectional evidence has suggested a potential role of infection in the ethology of Parkinson's disease (PD). We aim to examine the longitudinal association of infections with the incidence of PD and to explore whether the increased risk is limited to specific infection type rather than infection burden. METHODS: Based on the UK Biobank, hospital-treated infectious diseases and incident PD were ascertained through record linkage to national hospital inpatient registers. Infection burden was defined as the sum of the number of infection episodes over time and the number of co-occurring infections. The polygenic risk score (PRS) for PD was calculated. The genome-wide association studies (GWAS) used in two-sample Mendelian Randomization (MR) were obtained from observational cohort participants of mostly European ancestry. RESULTS: Hospital-treated infectious diseases were associated with an increased risk of PD (adjusted HR [aHR] 1.35 [95 % CI 1.20-1.52]). This relationship persisted when analyzing new PD cases occurring more than 10 years post-infection (aHR 1.22 [95 % CI 1.04-1.43]). The greatest PD risk was observed in neurological/eye infection (aHR 1.72 [95 % CI 1.32-2.34]), with lower respiratory tract infection (aHR 1.43 [95 % CI 1.02-1.99]) ranked the second. A dose-response association was observed between infection burden and PD risk within each PD-PRS tertile (p-trend < 0.001). Multivariable MR showed that bacterial and viral infections increase the PD risk. CONCLUSIONS: Both observational and genetic analysis suggested a causal association between infections and the risk of developing PD. A dose-response relationship between infection burden and incident PD was revealed.

Risk stratification for infection during immunosuppressive therapy in patients with lupus nephritis: A nested case-control study.

BACKGROUND: The current prediction models for the risk of infection during immunosuppressive treatment for lupus nephritis (LN) lack a prediction time window and have poor pertinence. This study aimed to develop a risk stratification to predict infection during immunosuppressive therapy in patients with LN. METHODS: This retrospective nested case-control study collected patients with LN treated with immunosuppressive therapy between 2014 and 2022 in the Nephrology ward in Huashan Hospital affiliated to Fudan University and Huashan Hospital Baoshan Branch. Cases were defined as patients who experienced infection during the follow-up period; patients were eligible as controls if they did not have infection during the follow-up period. RESULTS: There were 53 patients with infection by CTCAE V5.0 grade ≥2. According to the 1:3 nested matching, the 53 patients with infection were matched with 159 controls. In the multivariable logistic regression model, the change rate of fibrinogen (OR = 0.97, 95% CI: 0.94-0.99, p = 0.008), leukopenia (OR = 8.68, 95% CI: 1.16-301.72, p = 0.039), and reduced albumin (OR = 6.25, 95% CI: 1.38-28.24, p = 0.017) were independently associated with infection. The AUC of the ROC curve in the validation set of the multivariable logistic regression model in the internal random sampling was 0.864. The scores range from -2 to 10. The infection risk stratification ranges from 2.8% at score -2 to 97.5% at score 10. CONCLUSION: A risk stratification was built to predict the risk of infection in patients with LN undergoing immunosuppressive therapy.

Acting on non-communicable diseases in low- and middle-income tropical countries.

The classical portrayal of poor health in tropical countries is one of infections and parasites, contrasting with wealthy Western countries, where unhealthy diet and behaviours cause non-communicable diseases (NCDs) such as heart disease and cancer. Using international mortality data, we show that most NCDs cause more deaths at every age in low- and middle-income tropical countries than in high-income Western countries. Causes of NCDs in low- and middle-income countries include poor nutrition and living environment, infections, insufficient taxation and regulation of tobacco and alcohol, and under-resourced and inaccessible healthcare. We identify a comprehensive set of actions across health, social, economic and environmental sectors that could confront NCDs in low- and middle-income tropical countries and reduce global health inequalities.

Association between serum IgG concentrations and the incidence of infections in patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia and secondary immunodeficiency under treatment with Privigen.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the association between serum immunoglobulin G (IgG) concentrations and the incidence of infections in patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) and secondary immunodeficiency receiving treatment with Privigen. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Data was analyzed from a non-interventional study conducted in 31 centers in Germany and 1 in Austria. Adult CLL patients with hypogammaglobulinemia and recurrent infections were allowed to enter the study upon signing informed consent, if a prior decision for treatment with Privigen had been made. All infections requiring an antimicrobial treatment were subject to analysis. Patients were stratified according to their mean post-baseline serum IgG trough levels in a group with lower IgG trough levels (≤ 5.0 g/L), and a group with higher IgG trough levels (> 5.0 g/L). RESULTS: Overall, 89 patients and 840 treatment cycles were analyzed. Up to 11 treatment cycles (average duration 29 days) were documented in each patient. In the group with higher IgG trough levels (> 5.0 g/L, N = 72), significantly fewer infections were observed than in the group with lower IgG trough levels (≤ 5.0 g/L, N = 17), including fewer severe and serious infections. The Privigen dosage was a major determinant of the post-baseline serum IgG levels. Overall tolerability of Privigen was assessed as very good or good in 91% of patients. CONCLUSION: This analysis confirms the association of serum IgG trough levels with the incidence of infections and highlights the importance of careful monitoring of IgG levels during treatment of secondary immunodeficiencies in CLL patients.

Prevalence and associated factors of infection in children with nephrotic syndrome aged 2-18 years in the northwest and east Amhara region, Ethiopia: a multi-center cross-sectional retrospective study.

BACKGROUND: Infection is the most common complication of pediatric patients with nephrotic syndrome. The factors associated with infection in nephrotic syndrome are lacking. The objective of the study was to identify the prevalence and associated factors among children with nephrotic syndrome aged 2 to 18 years. METHODS: We conducted a hospital-based retrospective cross-sectional study. The data collector installed an Epi5 collector electronic data-collecting tool from Google Play. Then, we exported the data to Stata version 15.1 for analysis. The mean, standard deviation, frequency, and percentage were used for descriptive statistics. The logistic regression model was used to identify the factors associated with infection. RESULTS: In this study, the prevalence of infection among nephrotic syndrome children is 39.8% (95%CI: 30.7, 49.7). The types of infection identified were pneumonia, urinary tract infection, diarrheal disease, cutaneous fungal infection, intestinal parasitic infection, and sepsis. The presence of hematuria increased the odds of infection by 5-times. On the other hand, low level of serum albumin increased the odds of infection by 7%. Being a rural resident increased the odds of infection by 3.3-times as compared to urban. CONCLUSIONS: Serum albumin level, presence of hematuria, and rural residence were significantly associated with infection. We recommended a longitudinal incidence study on large sample size at multicenter to strengthen this finding.

Does Temporary Externalization of Electrodes After Deep Brain Stimulation Surgery Result in a Higher Risk of Infection?

OBJECTIVES: Deep brain stimulation (DBS) is a well-established surgical therapy for movement disorders that comprises implantation of stimulation electrodes and a pacemaker. These procedures can be performed separately, leaving the possibility of externalizing the electrodes for local field potential recording or testing multiple targets for therapeutic efficacy. It is still debated whether the temporary externalization of DBS electrodes leads to an increased risk of infection. We therefore aimed to assess the risk of infection during and after lead externalization in DBS surgery. MATERIALS AND METHODS: In this retrospective study, we analyzed a consecutive series of 624 DBS surgeries, including 266 instances with temporary externalization of DBS electrodes for a mean of 6.1 days. Patients were available for follow-up of at least one year, except in 15 instances. In 14 patients with negative test stimulation, electrodes were removed. All kinds of infections related to implantation of the neurostimulation system were accounted for. RESULTS: Overall, infections occurred in 22 of 624 surgeries (3.5%). Without externalization of electrodes, infections were noted after 7 of 358 surgeries (2.0%), whereas with externalization, 15 of 252 infections were found (6.0%). This difference was significant (p = 0.01), but it did not reach statistical significance when comparing groups within different diagnoses. The rate of infection with externalized electrodes was highest in psychiatric disorders (9.1%), followed by Parkinson's disease (7.3%), pain (5.7%), and dystonia (5.5%). The duration of the externalization of the DBS electrodes was comparable in patients who developed an infection (6.1 ± 3.1 days) with duration in those who did not (6.0 ± 3.5 days). CONCLUSIONS: Although infection rates were relatively low in our study, there was a slightly higher infection rate when DBS electrodes were externalized. On the basis of our results, the indication for electrode externalization should be carefully considered, and patients should be informed about the possibility of a higher infection risk when externalization of DBS electrodes is planned.

Infections Associated with Resterilized Pacemakers and Defibrillators.

BACKGROUND: Access to pacemakers and defibrillators is problematic in places with limited resources. Resterilization and reuse of implantable cardiac devices obtained post mortem from patients in wealthier nations have been undertaken, but uncertainty around the risk of infection is a concern. METHODS: A multinational program was initiated in 1983 to provide tested and resterilized pacemakers and defibrillators to underserved nations; a prospective registry was established in 2003. Patients who received reused devices in this program were matched in a 1:3 ratio with control patients who received new devices implanted in Canada. The primary outcome was infection or device-related death, with mortality from other causes modeled as a competing risk. RESULTS: Resterilized devices were implanted in 1051 patients (mean [±SD] age, 63.2±18.5 years; 43.6% women) in Mexico (36.0%), the Dominican Republic (28.1%), Guatemala (26.6%), and Honduras (9.3%). Overall, 85% received pacemakers and 15% received defibrillators, with one (55.5%), two (38.8%), or three (5.7%) leads. Baseline characteristics did not differ between these patients and the 3153 matched control patients. At 2 years of follow-up, infections had occurred in 21 patients (2.0%) with reused devices and in 38 (1.2%) with new devices (hazard ratio, 1.66; 95% confidence interval, 0.97 to 2.83; P = 0.06); there were no device-related deaths. The most common implicated pathogens were Staphylococcus aureus and S. epidermidis. CONCLUSIONS: Among patients in underserved countries who received a resterilized and reused pacemaker or defibrillator, the incidence of infection or device-related death at 2 years was 2.0%, an incidence that did not differ significantly from that seen among matched control patients with new devices in Canada.

Neighborhood poverty and pediatric allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation outcomes: a CIBMTR analysis.

Social determinants of health, including poverty, contribute significantly to health outcomes in the United States; however, their impact on pediatric hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) outcomes is poorly understood. We aimed to identify the association between neighborhood poverty and HCT outcomes for pediatric allogeneic HCT recipients in the Center for International Blood and Marrow Transplant Research database. We assembled 2 pediatric cohorts undergoing first allogeneic HCT from 2006 to 2015 at age ≤18 years, including 2053 children with malignant disease and 1696 children with nonmalignant disease. Neighborhood poverty exposure was defined a priori per the US Census definition as living in a high-poverty ZIP code (≥20% of persons below 100% federal poverty level) and used as the primary predictor in all analyses. Our primary outcome was overall survival (OS), defined as the time from HCT until death resulting from any cause. Secondary outcomes included relapse and transplantation-related mortality (TRM) in malignant disease, acute and chronic graft-versus-host disease, and infection in the first 100 days post-HCT. Among children undergoing transplantation for nonmalignant disease, neighborhood poverty was not associated with any HCT outcome. Among children undergoing transplantation for malignant disease, neighborhood poverty conferred an increased risk of TRM but was not associated with inferior OS or any other transplantation outcome. Among children with malignant disease, a key secondary finding was that children with Medicaid insurance experienced inferior OS and increased TRM compared with those with private insurance. These data suggest opportunities for future investigation of the effects of household-level poverty exposure on HCT outcomes in pediatric malignant disease to inform care delivery interventions.

Interplay between age and disease-modifying treatments in influencing infection risk in multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: Disease-modifying treatments (DMTs) can increase the risk of infections in multiple sclerosis (MS). Aged individuals are usually excluded from clinical trials, and there is uncertainty regarding safety of immunosuppressive DMTs in these patients. OBJECTIVE: To investigate the association of DMTs, ageing and other clinical variables with risk of infections in MS patients. METHODS: Prospective single-centre observational study collecting information on occurrence, type and grade of infections in patients followed at the MS centre, Lugano (Switzerland). Associations with infection risk were tested using multivariable Poisson and Cox regressions. RESULTS: A total of 503 patients were included (injectables/untreated, n = 127; orals, n = 139; monoclonal antibodies (MAB), n = 237) and 326 infections recorded over 12.6 (11.6-14.0) months. As compared to injectable DMTs/no treatment, MAB and oral DMTs were positively associated with infection incidence (IRR = 2.32, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.39-3.89, p = 0.001; IRR = 2.04, 95% CI = 1.19-3.49, p = 0.009, respectively). After excluding COVID-19, the effect of MAB was stronger among patients <50 years (IRR = 5.90, 95% CI = 2.80-12.45, p < 0.001) than >50 years (IRR = 1.95, 95% CI = 0.91-4.15, p = 0.084). Higher disability and male sex were the only variables associated with severe infections. CONCLUSION: Treatment with MAB and oral DMTs is associated with higher incidence of infections, with a stronger effect in young MS patients. Disability appears the main predictor of severe infections regardless of treatment.

There are no equal opportunity infectors: Epidemiological modelers must rethink our approach to inequality in infection risk.

Mathematical models have come to play a key role in global pandemic preparedness and outbreak response: helping to plan for disease burden, hospital capacity, and inform nonpharmaceutical interventions. Such models have played a pivotal role in the COVID-19 pandemic, with transmission models-and, by consequence, modelers-guiding global, national, and local responses to SARS-CoV-2. However, these models have largely not accounted for the social and structural factors, which lead to socioeconomic, racial, and geographic health disparities. In this piece, we raise and attempt to clarify several questions relating to this important gap in the research and practice of infectious disease modeling: Why do epidemiologic models of emerging infections typically ignore known structural drivers of disparate health outcomes? What have been the consequences of a framework focused primarily on aggregate outcomes on infection equity? What should be done to develop a more holistic approach to modeling-based decision-making during pandemics? In this review, we evaluate potential historical and political explanations for the exclusion of drivers of disparity in infectious disease models for emerging infections, which have often been characterized as "equal opportunity infectors" despite ample evidence to the contrary. We look to examples from other disease systems (HIV, STIs) and successes in including social inequity in models of acute infection transmission as a blueprint for how social connections, environmental, and structural factors can be integrated into a coherent, rigorous, and interpretable modeling framework. We conclude by outlining principles to guide modeling of emerging infections in ways that represent the causes of inequity in infection as central rather than peripheral mechanisms.

Exercise Frequency Reduction Is Associated With Higher Risk of Infection in Newly Diagnosed Diabetes: A Nationally Representative Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Exercise is an important method to control the progression of diabetes. Since diabetes compromises immune function and increases the risk of infectious diseases, we hypothesized that exercise may affect the risk of infection by its immunoprotective effects. However, population-based cohort studies regarding the association between exercise and the risk of infection are limited, especially regarding changes in exercise frequency. The aim of this study was to determine the association between the change in exercise frequency and the risk of infection among patients with newly diagnosed diabetes. METHODS: Data of 10,023 patients with newly diagnosed diabetes were extracted from the Korean National Health Insurance Service-Health Screening Cohort. Self-reported questionnaires for moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) were used to classify changes in exercise frequency between two consecutive two-year periods of health screenings (2009-2010 and 2011-2012). The association between changes in exercise frequency and the risk of infection was evaluated using multivariable Cox proportional-hazards regression. RESULTS: Compared with engaging in ≥ 5 times of MVPA/week during both periods, a radical decrease in MVPA (from ≥ 5 times of MVPA/week to physical inactivity) was associated with a higher risk of pneumonia (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 1.60; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.03-2.48) and upper respiratory tract infection (aHR, 1.15; 95% CI, 1.01-1.31). In addition, a reduction of MVPA from ≥ 5 to < 5 times of MVPA/week was associated with a higher risk of pneumonia (aHR, 1.52; 95% CI, 1.02-2.27), whereas the risk of upper respiratory tract infection was not higher. CONCLUSION: Among patients with newly diagnosed diabetes, a reduction in exercise frequency was related to an increase in the risk of pneumonia. For patients with diabetes, a modest level of physical activity may need to be maintained to reduce the risk of pneumonia.

Global burden of disease: acute-on-chronic liver failure, a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is characterised by acute decompensation of cirrhosis associated with organ failures. We systematically evaluated the geographical variations of ACLF across the world in terms of prevalence, mortality, aetiology of chronic liver disease (CLD), triggers and organ failures. METHODS: We searched EMBASE and PubMed from 3/1/2013 to 7/3/2020 using the ACLF-EASL-CLIF (European Association for the Study of the Liver-Chronic Liver Failure) criteria. Two investigators independently conducted the abstract selection/abstraction of the aetiology of CLD, triggers, organ failures and prevalence/mortality by presence/grade of ACLF. We grouped countries into Europe, East/South Asia and North/South America. We calculated the pooled proportions, evaluated the methodological quality using the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale and statistical heterogeneity, and performed sensitivity analyses. RESULTS: We identified 2369 studies; 30 cohort studies met our inclusion criteria (43 206 patients with ACLF and 140 835 without ACLF). The global prevalence of ACLF among patients admitted with decompensated cirrhosis was 35% (95% CI 33% to 38%), highest in South Asia at 65%. The global 90-day mortality was 58% (95% CI 51% to 64%), highest in South America at 73%. Alcohol was the most frequently reported aetiology of underlying CLD (45%, 95% CI 41 to 50). Infection was the most frequent trigger (35%) and kidney dysfunction the most common organ failure (49%). Sensitivity analyses showed regional estimates grossly unchanged for high-quality studies. Type of design, country health index, underlying CLD and triggers explained the variation in estimates. CONCLUSIONS: The global prevalence and mortality of ACLF are high. Region-specific variations could be explained by the type of triggers/aetiology of CLD or grade. Health systems will need to tailor early recognition and treatment of ACLF based on region-specific data.

Serious infections in patients with rheumatoid arthritis and psoriatic arthritis treated with tumour necrosis factor inhibitors: data from register linkage of the NOR-DMARD study.

OBJECTIVES: To estimate the incidence of serious infections (SIs) in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) and psoriatic arthritis (PsA) treated with tumour necrosis factor inhibitor (TNFi), and compare risk of SIs between patients with RA and PsA. METHODS: We included patients with RA and PsA from the NORwegian-Disease Modifying Anti-Rheumatic Drug registry starting TNFi treatment. Crude incidence rates (IRs) and IR ratio for SIs were calculated. The risk of SIs in patients with RA and PsA was compared using adjusted Cox-regression models. RESULTS: A total of 3169 TNFi treatment courses (RA/PsA: 1778/1391) were identified in 2359 patients. Patients with RA were significantly older with more extensive use of co-medication. The crude IRs for SIs were 4.17 (95% CI 3.52 to 4.95) in patients with RA and 2.16 (95% CI 1.66 to 2.81) in patients with PsA. Compared with the patients with RA, patients with PsA had a lower risk of SIs (HR 0.59, 95% CI 0.41 to 0.85, p=0.004) in complete set analysis. The reduced risk in PsA versus RA remained significant after multiple adjustments and consistent across strata based on age, gender and disease status. CONCLUSIONS: Compared with patients with RA, the risk of SIs was significantly lower in patients with PsA during TNFi exposure.

Rituximab dose-dependent infection risk in rheumatoid arthritis is not mediated through circulating immunoglobulins, neutrophils or B cells.

OBJECTIVES: Rituximab (RTX) is a safe and effective treatment for RA. A dose-dependent infection risk was found in the REDO trial. Some studies associate RTX use with higher infection risks, possibly explained by low immunoglobulin levels and/or neutropenia. Additionally, a higher infection risk shortly after RTX infusion is reported. The objectives of this study were (i) to compare incidence rates of infections between doses and over time, and (ii) to assess B-cell counts, immunoglobulin levels, neutrophil counts and corticosteroid/disease modifying rheumatic drug use as mediating factors between RTX study dose and infection risk. METHODS: Post hoc analyses of the REDO trial were performed. Infection incidence rates between RTX dosing groups and between time periods were compared using Poisson regression. A step-wise mediation analysis was performed to investigate if any of the factors mentioned above act as a mediator in the observed dose-dependent difference in infection risk. RESULTS: The potential mediators that were investigated (circulating B-cell counts, immunoglobulin levels, neutrophil counts and drug use) did not explain the dose-dependent infection risk observed in the REDO trial. Additionally, a trend towards a time-dependent infection risk was found, with higher infection rates shortly after RTX infusion. CONCLUSIONS: These secondary analyses of the REDO trial confirmed the observed dose-dependent infection risk. Additionally, we found that infection risks were higher shortly after RTX infusion. However, a mediating pathway was not found.

Coinfections by noninteracting pathogens are not independent and require new tests of interaction.

If pathogen species, strains, or clones do not interact, intuition suggests the proportion of coinfected hosts should be the product of the individual prevalences. Independence consequently underpins the wide range of methods for detecting pathogen interactions from cross-sectional survey data. However, the very simplest of epidemiological models challenge the underlying assumption of statistical independence. Even if pathogens do not interact, death of coinfected hosts causes net prevalences of individual pathogens to decrease simultaneously. The induced positive correlation between prevalences means the proportion of coinfected hosts is expected to be higher than multiplication would suggest. By modelling the dynamics of multiple noninteracting pathogens causing chronic infections, we develop a pair of novel tests of interaction that properly account for nonindependence between pathogens causing lifelong infection. Our tests allow us to reinterpret data from previous studies including pathogens of humans, plants, and animals. Our work demonstrates how methods to identify interactions between pathogens can be updated using simple epidemic models.

Hospital-diagnosed infections before age 20 and risk of a subsequent multiple sclerosis diagnosis.

The involvement of specific viral and bacterial infections as risk factors for multiple sclerosis has been studied extensively. However, whether this extends to infections in a broader sense is less clear and little is known about whether risk of a multiple sclerosis diagnosis is associated with other types and sites of infections such as the CNS. This study aims to assess if hospital-diagnosed infections by type and site before age 20 years are associated with risk of a subsequent multiple sclerosis diagnosis and whether this association is explained entirely by infectious mononucleosis, pneumonia, and CNS infections. Individuals born in Sweden between 1970 and 1994 were identified using the Swedish Total Population Register (n = 2 422 969). Multiple sclerosis diagnoses from age 20 years and hospital-diagnosed infections before age 20 years were identified using the Swedish National Patient Register. Risk of a multiple sclerosis diagnosis associated with various infections in adolescence (11-19 years) and earlier childhood (birth-10 years) was estimated using Cox regression, with adjustment for sex, parental socio-economic position, and infection type. None of the infections by age 10 years were associated with risk of a multiple sclerosis diagnosis. Any infection in adolescence increased the risk of a multiple sclerosis diagnosis (hazard ratio 1.33, 95% confidence interval 1.21-1.46) and remained statistically significant after exclusion of infectious mononucleosis, pneumonia, and CNS infection (hazard ratio 1.17, 95% confidence interval 1.06-1.30). CNS infection in adolescence (excluding encephalomyelitis to avoid including acute disseminated encephalitis) increased the risk of a multiple sclerosis diagnosis (hazard ratio 1.85, 95% confidence interval 1.11-3.07). The increased risk of a multiple sclerosis diagnosis associated with viral infection in adolescence was largely explained by infectious mononucleosis. Bacterial infections in adolescence increased risk of a multiple sclerosis diagnosis, but the magnitude of risk reduced after excluding infectious mononucleosis, pneumonia and CNS infection (hazard ratio 1.31, 95% confidence interval 1.13-1.51). Respiratory infection in adolescence also increased risk of a multiple sclerosis diagnosis (hazard ratio 1.51, 95% confidence interval 1.30-1.75), but was not statistically significant after excluding infectious mononucleosis and pneumonia. These findings suggest that a variety of serious infections in adolescence, including novel evidence for CNS infections, are risk factors for a subsequent multiple sclerosis diagnosis, further demonstrating adolescence is a critical period of susceptibility to environmental exposures that raise the risk of a multiple sclerosis diagnosis. Importantly, this increased risk cannot be entirely explained by infectious mononucleosis, pneumonia, or CNS infections.

Infectious risks in patients treated with extracorporeal photopheresis for graft-versus-host disease: A retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Infections are common with significant mortality and morbidity in patients with graft-versus-host disease (GvHD). Extracorporeal photopheresis (ECP) is an advantageous treatment option for patients with GvHD because it is not immunosuppressive. The objective of this study was to assess the rate of infections and to determine risk factors in patients with GvHD. MATERIALS AND METHODS: In a single-center cohort, we retrospectively collected data on infectious episodes by evaluating the clinical records of patients with GvHD treated by ECP since 2011. RESULTS: A total of 47 patients were included in this study. At ECP initiation, there were 10 patients with acute GvHD and 37 with chronic GvHD. At the final follow-up, 200 infectious episodes were diagnosed in 91.5% of patients with an average follow-up of 25.9 months (ie, 1.97 infections per patient per year). Most episodes had positive outcomes as there was no death related to infections, and only six infections required long-term treatment. Higher dose of corticosteroids at the initiation of ECP was significantly associated with a shorter onset of the first infection (hazard ratio [HR] = 2.05; 95% confidence interval [CI] [1.17, 3.57]; P = .013). Unrelated donor transplants were significantly associated with a lower rate of infection (HR = 0.61; 95% CI [0.39, 0.95]; P = .028). CONCLUSION: The results of our study suggest that ECP is associated with a low infection rate and an optimal clinical efficacy. Thus, ECP is still a suitable treatment for GvHD. Yet, a future study with a larger cohort will be necessary to deepen the identification of risk factors for infection.