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1.
N Engl J Med ; 388(9): 824-832, 2023 Mar 02.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36856618

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: By the end of 2022, nearly 20 million workers in the United States have gained paid-sick-leave coverage from mandates that require employers to provide benefits to qualified workers, including paid time off for the use of preventive services. Although the lack of paid-sick-leave coverage may hinder access to preventive care, current evidence is insufficient to draw meaningful conclusions about its relationship to cancer screening. METHODS: We examined the association between paid-sick-leave mandates and screening for breast and colorectal cancers by comparing changes in 12- and 24-month rates of colorectal-cancer screening and mammography between workers residing in metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) that have been affected by paid-sick-leave mandates (exposed MSAs) and workers residing in unexposed MSAs. The comparisons were conducted with the use of administrative medical-claims data for approximately 2 million private-sector employees from 2012 through 2019. RESULTS: Paid-sick-leave mandates were present in 61 MSAs in our sample. Screening rates were similar in the exposed and unexposed MSAs before mandate adoption. In the adjusted analysis, cancer-screening rates were higher among workers residing in exposed MSAs than among those in unexposed MSAs by 1.31 percentage points (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.28 to 2.34) for 12-month colorectal cancer screening, 1.56 percentage points (95% CI, 0.33 to 2.79) for 24-month colorectal cancer screening, 1.22 percentage points (95% CI, -0.20 to 2.64) for 12-month mammography, and 2.07 percentage points (95% CI, 0.15 to 3.99) for 24-month mammography. CONCLUSIONS: In a sample of private-sector workers in the United States, cancer-screening rates were higher among those residing in MSAs exposed to paid-sick-leave mandates than among those residing in unexposed MSAs. Our results suggest that a lack of paid-sick-leave coverage presents a barrier to cancer screening. (Funded by the National Cancer Institute.).


Assuntos
Neoplasias da Mama , Neoplasias Colorretais , Detecção Precoce de Câncer , Licença Médica , Humanos , Neoplasias da Mama/diagnóstico , Neoplasias da Mama/economia , Neoplasias Colorretais/diagnóstico , Neoplasias Colorretais/economia , Detecção Precoce de Câncer/economia , Detecção Precoce de Câncer/estatística & dados numéricos , Mamografia/estatística & dados numéricos , Programas Obrigatórios/economia , Programas Obrigatórios/legislação & jurisprudência , Programas Obrigatórios/estatística & dados numéricos , Salários e Benefícios/economia , Salários e Benefícios/legislação & jurisprudência , Salários e Benefícios/estatística & dados numéricos , Licença Médica/economia , Licença Médica/legislação & jurisprudência , Licença Médica/estatística & dados numéricos , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia , População Urbana/estatística & dados numéricos , Acessibilidade aos Serviços de Saúde/economia , Acessibilidade aos Serviços de Saúde/legislação & jurisprudência , Acessibilidade aos Serviços de Saúde/estatística & dados numéricos
2.
Gastroenterology ; 167(2): 368-377, 2024 Jul.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38552671

RESUMO

BACKGROUND & AIMS: A blood-based colorectal cancer (CRC) screening test may increase screening participation. However, blood tests may be less effective than current guideline-endorsed options. The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) covers blood tests with sensitivity of at least 74% for detection of CRC and specificity of at least 90%. In this study, we investigate whether a blood test that meets these criteria is cost-effective. METHODS: Three microsimulation models for CRC (MISCAN-Colon, CRC-SPIN, and SimCRC) were used to estimate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of triennial blood-based screening (from ages 45 to 75 years) compared to no screening, annual fecal immunochemical testing (FIT), triennial stool DNA testing combined with an FIT assay, and colonoscopy screening every 10 years. The CMS coverage criteria were used as performance characteristics of the hypothetical blood test. We varied screening ages, test performance characteristics, and screening uptake in a sensitivity analysis. RESULTS: Without screening, the models predicted 77-88 CRC cases and 32-36 CRC deaths per 1000 individuals, costing $5.3-$5.8 million. Compared to no screening, blood-based screening was cost-effective, with an additional cost of $25,600-$43,700 per quality-adjusted life-year gained (QALYG). However, compared to FIT, triennial stool DNA testing combined with FIT, and colonoscopy, blood-based screening was not cost-effective, with both a decrease in QALYG and an increase in costs. FIT remained more effective (+5-24 QALYG) and less costly (-$3.2 to -$3.5 million) than blood-based screening even when uptake of blood-based screening was 20 percentage points higher than uptake of FIT. CONCLUSION: Even with higher screening uptake, triennial blood-based screening, with the CMS-specified minimum performance sensitivity of 74% and specificity of 90%, was not projected to be cost-effective compared with established strategies for colorectal cancer screening.


Assuntos
Colonoscopia , Neoplasias Colorretais , Análise Custo-Benefício , Detecção Precoce de Câncer , Sangue Oculto , Humanos , Neoplasias Colorretais/diagnóstico , Neoplasias Colorretais/economia , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Idoso , Estados Unidos , Detecção Precoce de Câncer/economia , Detecção Precoce de Câncer/métodos , Feminino , Masculino , Colonoscopia/economia , Colonoscopia/estatística & dados numéricos , Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, U.S. , Anos de Vida Ajustados por Qualidade de Vida , Sensibilidade e Especificidade , Valor Preditivo dos Testes , Fezes/química , Simulação por Computador , Modelos Econômicos
3.
Gastroenterology ; 167(2): 378-391, 2024 Jul.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38552670

RESUMO

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Colorectal cancer (CRC) screening is highly effective but underused. Blood-based biomarkers (liquid biopsy) could improve screening participation. METHODS: Using our established Markov model, screening every 3 years with a blood-based test that meets minimum Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services' thresholds (CMSmin) (CRC sensitivity 74%, specificity 90%) was compared with established alternatives. Test attributes were varied in sensitivity analyses. RESULTS: CMSmin reduced CRC incidence by 40% and CRC mortality by 52% vs no screening. These reductions were less profound than the 68%-79% and 73%-81%, respectively, achieved with multi-target stool DNA (Cologuard; Exact Sciences) every 3 years, annual fecal immunochemical testing (FIT), or colonoscopy every 10 years. Assuming the same cost as multi-target stool DNA, CMSmin cost $28,500/quality-adjusted life-year gained vs no screening, but FIT, colonoscopy, and multi-target stool DNA were less costly and more effective. CMSmin would match FIT's clinical outcomes if it achieved 1.4- to 1.8-fold FIT's participation rate. Advanced precancerous lesion (APL) sensitivity was a key determinant of a test's effectiveness. A paradigm-changing blood-based test (sensitivity >90% for CRC and 80% for APL; 90% specificity; cost ≤$120-$140) would be cost-effective vs FIT at comparable participation. CONCLUSIONS: CMSmin could contribute to CRC control by achieving screening in those who will not use established methods. Substituting blood-based testing for established effective CRC screening methods will require higher CRC and APL sensitivities that deliver programmatic benefits matching those of FIT. High APL sensitivity, which can result in CRC prevention, should be a top priority for screening test developers. APL detection should not be penalized by a definition of test specificity that focuses on CRC only.


Assuntos
Colonoscopia , Neoplasias Colorretais , Análise Custo-Benefício , Detecção Precoce de Câncer , Sangue Oculto , Humanos , Neoplasias Colorretais/diagnóstico , Neoplasias Colorretais/economia , Colonoscopia/economia , Detecção Precoce de Câncer/economia , Detecção Precoce de Câncer/métodos , Biópsia Líquida/economia , Biomarcadores Tumorais/sangue , Biomarcadores Tumorais/análise , Cadeias de Markov , Anos de Vida Ajustados por Qualidade de Vida , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Masculino , Feminino , Idoso , Fezes/química , Estados Unidos , Incidência , Valor Preditivo dos Testes , Pesquisa Comparativa da Efetividade , Custos de Cuidados de Saúde
4.
J Gastroenterol Hepatol ; 39(7): 1328-1335, 2024 Jul.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38348570

RESUMO

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Regular endoscopy or fecal immunochemical test (FIT) is ideal for screening colorectal cancer. However, only a limited number of individuals undergo regular screening. This study aimed to compare the cost-effectiveness of a single colonoscopy with a single FIT performed for colorectal cancer screening. METHODS: A microsimulation model was constructed based on real-world observational data collected from three institutions between 2019 and 2022 that compared colonoscopy-based screening with FIT-based screening. The total costs of diagnosis and treatment of the detected lesions using the two strategies were calculated. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) per life year gained (LYG) of the colonoscopy-based strategy was calculated. RESULTS: Data from 11 407 patients undergoing colonoscopies and 59 176 patients undergoing FITs were used to establish a model. In the base case analysis of screening strategies, colonoscopy was more cost-effective than FIT (ICER 415 193 yen/LYG). The ICER of the colonoscopy-based strategy among 60- to 69-year-old patients was lowest at 394 200 yen/LYG, whereas that in 20- to 29-year-old patients was highest. Monte Carlo simulations showed that the colonoscopy-based strategy was more cost-effective than the FIT-based strategy (net monetary benefit [NMB]: 5 695 957 yen vs 5 348 253 yen). When the adenoma detection rate in the colonoscopy was over 30% or the positive FIT rate was lower than 8.6% in the FIT-based strategy, the NMB of the colonoscopy-based strategy exceeded that of the FIT-based strategy. CONCLUSION: In the microsimulation model, colonoscopy is recommended as a one-time screening procedure in patients aged >60 years with >30% ADR or <8.6% positive FIT rate.


Assuntos
Colonoscopia , Neoplasias Colorretais , Análise Custo-Benefício , Detecção Precoce de Câncer , Humanos , Colonoscopia/economia , Neoplasias Colorretais/diagnóstico , Neoplasias Colorretais/economia , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Idoso , Detecção Precoce de Câncer/economia , Detecção Precoce de Câncer/métodos , Adulto , Masculino , Feminino , Sangue Oculto , Fezes/química , Adulto Jovem , Método de Monte Carlo , Programas de Rastreamento/economia , Programas de Rastreamento/métodos , Análise de Custo-Efetividade
5.
Jpn J Clin Oncol ; 54(6): 637-646, 2024 Jun 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38376792

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Major guidelines consistently recommend 5 years of postoperative surveillance for patients with colorectal cancer. However, they differ in their recommendations for examination intervals and whether they should vary according to disease stage. Furthermore, there are no reports on the cost-effectiveness of the different surveillance schedules. The objective of this study is to identify the most cost-effective surveillance intervals after curative resection of colorectal cancer. METHODS: A total of 3701 patients who underwent curative surgery for colorectal cancer at the National Cancer Center Hospital were included. A cost-effectiveness analysis was conducted for the five surveillance strategies with reference to the guidelines. Expected medical costs and quality-adjusted life years after colorectal cancer resection were calculated using a state-transition model by Monte Carlo simulation. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio per quality-adjusted life years gained was calculated for each strategy, with a maximum acceptable value of 43 500-52 200 USD (5-6 million JPY). RESULTS: Stages I, II and III included 1316, 1082 and 1303 patients, respectively, with 45, 140 and 338 relapsed cases. For patients with stage I disease, strategy 4 (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio $26 555/quality-adjusted life year) was considered to be the most cost-effective, while strategies 3 ($83 071/quality-adjusted life year) and 2 ($289 642/quality-adjusted life year) exceeded the threshold value. In stages II and III, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for strategy 3 was the most cost-effective option, with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $18 358-22 230/quality-adjusted life year. CONCLUSIONS: In stage I, the cost-effectiveness of intensive surveillance is very poor and strategy 4 is the most cost-effective. Strategy 3 is the most cost-effective in stages II and III.


Assuntos
Neoplasias Colorretais , Análise Custo-Benefício , Anos de Vida Ajustados por Qualidade de Vida , Humanos , Neoplasias Colorretais/cirurgia , Neoplasias Colorretais/economia , Feminino , Masculino , Idoso , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Estadiamento de Neoplasias , Recidiva Local de Neoplasia/economia
6.
Colorectal Dis ; 26(5): 1028-1037, 2024 May.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38581083

RESUMO

AIM: Colorectal cancer (CRC) screening rates in the United States remain persistently below guideline targets, partly due to suboptimal patient utilization and provider reimbursement. To guide long-term national utilization estimates and set reasonable screening adherence targets, this study aimed to quantify trends in utilization of and reimbursement for CRC screenings using Medicare claims. METHOD: Inflation-adjusted reimbursements and utilization volume associated with each CRC screening code were abstracted from Medicare claims between 2000 and 2019. Screenings, screenings/100 000 enrolees and reimbursement/screening were analysed with linear regression and compared with the equality of slopes tests. Average reimbursement per screening was compared using analysis of variance with Dunnett's T3 multiple comparisons test. RESULTS: The growth rate of multitarget stool DNA tests (mt-sDNA)/100 000 was the highest at 170.4 screenings/year (R2 = 0.99, p ≤ 0.001), while that of faecal occult blood tests/100 000 was the lowest at -446.4 screenings/year (R2 = 0.90, p ≤ 0.001) (p ≤ 0.001). Provider reimbursements averaged $546.95 (95% CI $520.12-$573.78) per mt-sDNA screening, significantly higher than reimbursements for all invasive screenings. Only FOBTs significantly increased in reimbursement per screening at $0.62/year (R2 = 0.91, p ≤ 0.001). CONCLUSION: We derived forecastable trend numbers for utilization and provider reimbursement. Faecal immunochemical tests/100 000 and mt-sDNA screenings/100 000 increased most rapidly during the entire study period. The number of nearly all invasive screenings/100 000 decreased rapidly; the number of colonoscopies/100 000 increased slightly, probably due to superior diagnostic strength. These trends indicate the that replacement of other invasive modalities with accessible noninvasive screenings will account for much of future screening behaviour and thus reductions in CRC incidence and mortality, especially given providers' reimbursement incentive to screen average-risk patients with stool-based tests.


Assuntos
Neoplasias Colorretais , Detecção Precoce de Câncer , Medicare , Sangue Oculto , Humanos , Neoplasias Colorretais/diagnóstico , Neoplasias Colorretais/economia , Estados Unidos , Detecção Precoce de Câncer/economia , Detecção Precoce de Câncer/estatística & dados numéricos , Detecção Precoce de Câncer/tendências , Medicare/economia , Medicare/estatística & dados numéricos , Masculino , Feminino , Idoso , Reembolso de Seguro de Saúde/tendências , Reembolso de Seguro de Saúde/estatística & dados numéricos , Reembolso de Seguro de Saúde/economia , Fezes , Aceitação pelo Paciente de Cuidados de Saúde/estatística & dados numéricos , Colonoscopia/economia , Colonoscopia/estatística & dados numéricos , Colonoscopia/tendências , Programas de Rastreamento/economia , Programas de Rastreamento/tendências , Programas de Rastreamento/estatística & dados numéricos
7.
Public Health ; 231: 142-147, 2024 Jun.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38688167

RESUMO

OBJECTIVE: Since 2013, Flanders has introduced a screening programme for colorectal cancer for all citizens aged between 50 and 74 years. The objective of this study was to assess the cost-utility of an expansion of the colorectal cancer screening policy in Flanders (Belgium) and to place these findings in the international context. METHODS: Cost-utility analysis using high-detail data about screening participation, screening results, and epidemiological data, a Markov cohort model has been constructed to study long-term costs and effects. A cost-utility analysis was performed as a three-way comparison between current, expanded (from age 45 years), and no screening scenarios, from a societal and healthcare perspective. Robustness was assessed by both one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses. RESULTS: Analyses show that both current and expanded screening result in quality-adjusted life years (QALY) gains and are mostly cost-saving. Overall, 97.5% of Incremental Cost-Effectiveness Ratios (ICERs) remained well below € 2000 per QALY for all comparisons. Parameters related to the colonoscopy that follows a positive test result such as compliance and cost are especially impactful on the cost-effectiveness. CONCLUSIONS: Screening participation and screening costs have remained comparatively stable, making colorectal cancer screening a cost-effective (dominant) policy. Expanding the screen age to 45 years is also cost-effective (dominant) compared with current screening, albeit with a slimmer margin.


Assuntos
Neoplasias Colorretais , Análise Custo-Benefício , Detecção Precoce de Câncer , Política de Saúde , Cadeias de Markov , Anos de Vida Ajustados por Qualidade de Vida , Humanos , Neoplasias Colorretais/diagnóstico , Neoplasias Colorretais/economia , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Bélgica , Idoso , Detecção Precoce de Câncer/economia , Masculino , Feminino , Programas de Rastreamento/economia
8.
Gan To Kagaku Ryoho ; 51(5): 541-547, 2024 May.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38881065

RESUMO

OBJECTIVE: Metastatic colorectal cancer with KRAS wild type is treated using a range of drug regimens, including fluorouracil, irinotecan, and Leucovorin(FOLFIRI)plus bevacizumab(Bmab), cetuximab(Cmab), or panitumumab(Pmab). The present study aimed to identify the optimal regimen using a decision analysis method, in combination with clinical and economic evidence. METHOD: A simple Markov model with a monthly cycle time was constructed. Probabilistic variables for input into the model were derived from randomized controlled trials. Direct costs for the drugs, laboratory analyses, and medical staff were calculated and used in the model. RESULTS: The expected survival times and costs of FOLFIRI alone and combination therapies were 20.9 months and 2,299,198 yen for FOLFIRI, 29.9 months and 8,929,888 yen for Bmab, 27.8 months and 11,811,849 yen for Cmab, and 22.6 months and 8,795,622 yen for Pmab. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratios to FOLFIRI were 736,743 yen/month for Bmab, 1,378,645 yen/month for Cmab, and 3,821,426 yen/month for Pmab. CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggested that these regimens were not sufficiently cost-effective, although they have excellent therapeutic efficacy. From the economic point of view, these combination regimens were inferior to FOLFIRI alone.


Assuntos
Protocolos de Quimioterapia Combinada Antineoplásica , Camptotecina , Neoplasias Colorretais , Análise Custo-Benefício , Fluoruracila , Leucovorina , Metástase Neoplásica , Leucovorina/economia , Leucovorina/uso terapêutico , Leucovorina/administração & dosagem , Humanos , Protocolos de Quimioterapia Combinada Antineoplásica/uso terapêutico , Protocolos de Quimioterapia Combinada Antineoplásica/economia , Neoplasias Colorretais/tratamento farmacológico , Neoplasias Colorretais/patologia , Neoplasias Colorretais/economia , Fluoruracila/administração & dosagem , Fluoruracila/uso terapêutico , Fluoruracila/economia , Camptotecina/análogos & derivados , Camptotecina/economia , Camptotecina/administração & dosagem , Camptotecina/uso terapêutico , Tomada de Decisão Clínica , Análise de Custo-Efetividade
9.
Cancer ; 129(10): 1569-1578, 2023 05 15.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36787126

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Hispanic populations in the United States experience numerous barriers to care access. It is unclear how cancer screening disparities between Hispanic and non-Hispanic White individuals are explained by access to care, including having a usual source of care and health insurance coverage. METHODS: A secondary analysis of the 2019 National Health Interview Survey was conducted and included respondents who were sex- and age-eligible for cervical (n = 8316), breast (n = 6025), or colorectal cancer screening (n = 11,313). The proportion of ever screened and up to date for each screening type was compared.  Regression models evaluated whether controlling for reporting a usual source of care and type of health insurance (public, private, none) attenuated disparities between Hispanics and non-Hispanic White individuals. RESULTS: Hispanic individuals were less likely than non-Hispanic White individuals to be up to date with cervical cancer screening (71.6% vs. 74.6%) and colorectal cancer screening (52.9% vs. 70.3%), but up-to-date screening was similar for breast cancer (78.8% vs. 76.3%). Hispanic individuals (vs. non-Hispanic White) were less likely to have a usual source of care (77.9% vs. 86.0%) and more likely to be uninsured (23.6% vs. 7.1%). In regressions, insurance fully attenuated cervical cancer disparities. Controlling for both usual source of care and insurance type explained approximately half of the colorectal cancer screening disparities (adjusted risk difference: -8.3 [-11.2 to -4.8]). CONCLUSION: Addressing the high rate of uninsurance among Hispanic individuals could mitigate cancer screening disparities. Future research should build on the relative successes of breast cancer screening and investigate additional barriers for colorectal cancer screening. PLAIN LANGUAGE SUMMARY: This study uses data from a national survey to compare cancer screening use those who identify as Hispanic with those who identify as non-Hispanic White. Those who identify as Hispanic are much less likely to be up to date with colorectal cancer screening than those who identify as non-Hispanic White, slightly less likely to be up to date on cervical cancer screening, and similarly likely to receive breast cancer screening. Improving insurance coverage is important for health equity, as is further exploring what drives higher use of breast cancer screening and lower use of colorectal cancer screening.


Assuntos
Detecção Precoce de Câncer , Acessibilidade aos Serviços de Saúde , Disparidades em Assistência à Saúde , Hispânico ou Latino , Neoplasias , Brancos , Feminino , Humanos , Neoplasias da Mama/diagnóstico , Neoplasias da Mama/economia , Neoplasias da Mama/epidemiologia , Neoplasias da Mama/etnologia , Neoplasias Colorretais/diagnóstico , Neoplasias Colorretais/economia , Neoplasias Colorretais/epidemiologia , Neoplasias Colorretais/etnologia , Detecção Precoce de Câncer/economia , Detecção Precoce de Câncer/estatística & dados numéricos , Acessibilidade aos Serviços de Saúde/economia , Acessibilidade aos Serviços de Saúde/estatística & dados numéricos , Disparidades em Assistência à Saúde/economia , Disparidades em Assistência à Saúde/etnologia , Disparidades em Assistência à Saúde/estatística & dados numéricos , Hispânico ou Latino/estatística & dados numéricos , Cobertura do Seguro/economia , Cobertura do Seguro/estatística & dados numéricos , Programas de Rastreamento/economia , Programas de Rastreamento/estatística & dados numéricos , Neoplasias/diagnóstico , Neoplasias/economia , Neoplasias/epidemiologia , Neoplasias/etnologia , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia , Neoplasias do Colo do Útero/diagnóstico , Neoplasias do Colo do Útero/economia , Neoplasias do Colo do Útero/epidemiologia , Neoplasias do Colo do Útero/etnologia , Brancos/estatística & dados numéricos
10.
Gastroenterology ; 161(4): 1168-1178, 2021 10.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34182002

RESUMO

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Endoscopic submucosal dissection (ESD) enables the curative resection of early malignant lesions and is associated with reduced recurrence risk. Due to the lack of comprehensive ESD data in the West, the German ESD registry was set up to evaluate relevant outcomes of ESD. METHODS: The German ESD registry is a prospective uncontrolled multicenter study. During a 35-month period, 20 centers included 1000 ESDs of neoplastic lesions. The results were evaluated in terms of en bloc, R0, curative resection rates, and recurrence rate after a 3-month and 12-month follow-up. Additionally, participating centers were grouped into low-volume (≤20 ESDs/y), middle-volume (20-50/y), and high-volume centers (>50/y). A multivariate analysis investigating risk factors for noncurative resection was performed. RESULTS: Overall, en bloc, R0, and curative resection rates of 92.4% (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.90-0.94), 78.8% (95% CI, 0.76-0.81), and 72.3% (95% CI, 0.69-0.75) were achieved, respectively. The overall complication rate was 8.3% (95% CI, 0.067-0.102), whereas the recurrence rate after 12 months was 2.1%. High-volume centers had significantly higher en bloc, R0, curative resection rates, and recurrence rates and lower complication rates than middle- or low-volume centers. The lesion size, hybrid ESD, age, stage T1b carcinoma, and treatment outside high-volume centers were identified as risk factors for noncurative ESD. CONCLUSION: In Germany, ESD achieves excellent en bloc resection rates but only modest curative resection rates. ESD requires a high level of expertise, and results vary significantly depending on the center's yearly case volume.


Assuntos
Neoplasias Colorretais/cirurgia , Ressecção Endoscópica de Mucosa , Neoplasias Esofágicas/cirurgia , Neoplasias Gástricas/cirurgia , Adulto , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Competência Clínica , Neoplasias Colorretais/economia , Neoplasias Colorretais/patologia , Ressecção Endoscópica de Mucosa/efeitos adversos , Ressecção Endoscópica de Mucosa/economia , Ressecção Endoscópica de Mucosa/tendências , Neoplasias Esofágicas/economia , Neoplasias Esofágicas/patologia , Feminino , Alemanha , Custos de Cuidados de Saúde , Hospitais com Alto Volume de Atendimentos , Hospitais com Baixo Volume de Atendimentos , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Recidiva Local de Neoplasia , Estadiamento de Neoplasias , Estudos Prospectivos , Indicadores de Qualidade em Assistência à Saúde , Sistema de Registros , Medição de Risco , Fatores de Risco , Neoplasias Gástricas/economia , Neoplasias Gástricas/patologia , Fatores de Tempo , Resultado do Tratamento
11.
J Clin Gastroenterol ; 56(7): 597-600, 2022 08 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34267104

RESUMO

GOAL: The goal of this study was to determine the financial impact of adopting the US Multi-Society Task Force (USMSTF) polypectomy guidelines on physician reimbursement and disposable equipment costs for gastroenterologists in the academic medical center and community practice settings. BACKGROUND: In 2020, USMSTF guidelines on polypectomy were introduced with a strong recommendation for cold snare rather than cold forceps technique for removing diminutive and small polyps. Polypectomy with snare technique reimburses physicians at a higher rate compared with cold forceps and also requires different disposable equipment. The financial implications of adopting these guidelines is unknown. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Patients that underwent screening colonoscopy where polypectomy was performed at an academic medical center (Loma Linda University Medical Center) and community practice medical center (Ascension Providence Hospital) between July 2018 and July 2019 were identified. The polypectomy technique performed during each procedure was determined (forceps alone, snare alone, forceps plus snare) along with the number and size of polyps as well as disposable equipment. Actual and projected provider reimbursement and disposable equipment costs were determined based on applying the new polypectomy guidelines. RESULTS: A total of 1167 patients underwent colonoscopy with polypectomy. Adhering to new guidelines would increase estimated physician reimbursement by 5.6% and 12.5% at academic and community practice sites, respectively. The mean increase in physician reimbursement per procedure was significantly higher at community practice compared with the academic setting ($29.50 vs. $14.13, P <0.00001). The mean increase in disposable equipment cost per procedure was significantly higher at the community practice setting ($6.11 vs. $1.97, P <0.00001). CONCLUSION: Adopting new polypectomy guidelines will increase physician reimbursement and equipment costs when colonoscopy with polypectomy is performed.


Assuntos
Pólipos do Colo/cirurgia , Neoplasias Colorretais/cirurgia , Fidelidade a Diretrizes/economia , Centros Médicos Acadêmicos/economia , Pólipos do Colo/economia , Colonoscopia/economia , Colonoscopia/métodos , Neoplasias Colorretais/economia , Centros Comunitários de Saúde/economia , Equipamentos Descartáveis/classificação , Equipamentos Descartáveis/economia , Humanos , Instrumentos Cirúrgicos/economia
12.
Value Health ; 25(1): 104-115, 2022 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35031089

RESUMO

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to provide detailed guidance on modeling approaches for implementing competing events in discrete event simulations based on censored individual patient data (IPD). METHODS: The event-specific distributions (ESDs) approach sampled times from event-specific time-to-event distributions and simulated the first event to occur. The unimodal distribution and regression approach sampled a time from a combined unimodal time-to-event distribution, representing all events, and used a (multinomial) logistic regression model to select the event to be simulated. A simulation study assessed performance in terms of relative absolute event incidence difference and relative entropy of time-to-event distributions for different types and levels of right censoring, numbers of events, distribution overlap, and sample sizes. Differences in cost-effectiveness estimates were illustrated in a colorectal cancer case study. RESULTS: Increased levels of censoring negatively affected the modeling approaches' performance. A lower number of competing events and higher overlap of distributions improved performance. When IPD were censored at random times, ESD performed best. When censoring occurred owing to a maximum follow-up time for 2 events, ESD performed better for a low level of censoring (ie, 10%). For 3 or 4 competing events, ESD better represented the probabilities of events, whereas unimodal distribution and regression better represented the time to events. Differences in cost-effectiveness estimates, both compared with no censoring and between approaches, increased with increasing censoring levels. CONCLUSIONS: Modelers should be aware of the different modeling approaches available and that selection between approaches may be informed by data characteristics. Performing and reporting extensive validation efforts remains essential to ensure IPD are appropriately represented.


Assuntos
Neoplasias Colorretais/economia , Análise Custo-Benefício/métodos , Modelos Estatísticos , Simulação por Computador , Humanos , Medição de Risco
13.
Value Health ; 25(1): 69-76, 2022 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35031101

RESUMO

OBJECTIVES: There is limited knowledge about the cost patterns of patients who receive a diagnosis of de novo and recurrent advanced cancers in the United States. METHODS: Data on patients who received a diagnosis of de novo stage IV or recurrent breast, colorectal, or lung cancer between 2000 and 2012 from 3 integrated health systems were used to estimate average annual costs for total, ambulatory, inpatient, medication, and other services during (1) 12 months preceding de novo or recurrent diagnosis (preindex) and (2) diagnosis month through 11 months after (postindex), from the payer perspective. Generalized linear regression models estimated costs adjusting for patient and clinical factors. RESULTS: Patients who developed a recurrence <1 year after their initial cancer diagnosis had significantly higher total costs in the preindex period than those with recurrence ≥1 year after initial diagnosis and those with de novo stage IV disease across all cancers (all P < .05). Patients with de novo stage IV breast and colorectal cancer had significantly higher total costs in the postindex period than patients with cancer recurrent in <1 year and ≥1 year (all P < .05), respectively. Patients in de novo stage IV and those with recurrence in ≥1 year experienced significantly higher postindex costs than the preindex period (all P < .001). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings reveal distinct cost patterns between patients with de novo stage IV, recurrent <1-year, and recurrent ≥1-year cancer, suggesting unique care trajectories that may influence resource use and planning. Future cost studies among patients with advanced cancer should account for de novo versus recurrent diagnoses and timing of recurrence to obtain estimates that accurately reflect these care pattern complexities.


Assuntos
Neoplasias da Mama/economia , Neoplasias Colorretais/economia , Custos de Cuidados de Saúde/estatística & dados numéricos , Neoplasias Pulmonares/economia , Recidiva Local de Neoplasia/economia , Adulto , Idoso , Neoplasias da Mama/epidemiologia , Neoplasias Colorretais/epidemiologia , Feminino , Humanos , Neoplasias Pulmonares/epidemiologia , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Recidiva Local de Neoplasia/epidemiologia , Estadiamento de Neoplasias/economia , Sistema de Registros , Estudos Retrospectivos , Estados Unidos
14.
Int J Cancer ; 149(5): 1031-1043, 2021 09 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33950515

RESUMO

Socioeconomic factors influence patterns of care in colorectal cancer. Our study investigates the impact of socioeconomic status (SES) on stage at presentation, receipt of diagnostic imaging, receipt of treatment and overall survival (OS) in a universal healthcare system. The Ontario Cancer Registry (OCR) was accessed to identify a cohort of patients diagnosed with colorectal adenocarcinoma from 2007 to 2016 in Ontario, Canada. SES was measured using median neighborhood income divided into quintiles (Q1-Q5; Q1 = lowest income). Logistic regression analyses were used to evaluate stage, imaging and treatment. Cox proportional hazards models were used to evaluate OS. All endpoints were adjusted for demographics and comorbidities with OS models also adjusting for stage, imaging and treatment. In total, 39 802 colon and 13 164 rectal patients were identified. Lower SES was associated with advanced stage at presentation in both cohorts (Q1 vs Q5: Colon odds ratio [OR] = 1.08, P = .046, rectal OR = 1.25, P < .0001). Lower SES colon patients were less likely to receive adjuvant oxaliplatin (Q1 vs Q5: OR = 0.78, P < .001) and all palliative chemotherapies studied including oxaliplatin (Q1 vs Q5: OR = 0.60, P < 0.0001), irinotecan (Q1 vs Q5: OR = 0.65, P < .0001), bevacizumab (Q1 vs Q5: OR = 0.70, P < .001), cetuximab (Q1 vs Q5: OR = 0.40, P = .0053) and panitumumab (Q1 vs Q5: OR = 0.54, P = .0036). In rectal patients, lower SES was associated with decreased receipt of rectal cancer resection for stages I-III (Q1 vs Q5: OR = 0.78, P < .001), adjuvant oxaliplatin (Q1 vs Q5: OR = 0.72, P = .0020) and palliative chemotherapies including oxaliplatin (Q1 vs Q5: OR = 0.59, P < .001), irinotecan (Q1 vs Q5: OR = 0.53, P < .001) and bevacizumab (Q1 vs Q5: OR = 0.71, P = .046). All survival models identified poorer OS for lower SES patients (total colorectal; Q1 vs Q5: Hazard ratio [HR] = 1.25, P < .0001). These findings suggest disparities persist even within universal healthcare.


Assuntos
Adenocarcinoma/mortalidade , Protocolos de Quimioterapia Combinada Antineoplásica/uso terapêutico , Neoplasias Colorretais/mortalidade , Diagnóstico por Imagem/métodos , Classe Social , Adenocarcinoma/diagnóstico , Adenocarcinoma/tratamento farmacológico , Adenocarcinoma/economia , Idoso , Cetuximab/administração & dosagem , Neoplasias Colorretais/diagnóstico , Neoplasias Colorretais/tratamento farmacológico , Neoplasias Colorretais/economia , Feminino , Seguimentos , Humanos , Irinotecano/administração & dosagem , Masculino , Oxaliplatina/administração & dosagem , Panitumumabe/administração & dosagem , Prognóstico , Sistema de Registros/estatística & dados numéricos , Estudos Retrospectivos , Taxa de Sobrevida , Fatores de Tempo
15.
Cancer ; 127(11): 1880-1893, 2021 06 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33784413

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the third most common cancer in China, however, publicly available, descriptive information on the clinical epidemiology of CRC is limited. METHODS: Patients diagnosed with primary CRC during 2005 through 2014 were sampled from 13 tertiary hospitals in 9 provinces across China. Data related to sociodemographic characteristics, the use of diagnostic technology, treatment adoption, and expenditure were extracted from individual medical records. RESULTS: In the full cohort of 8465 patients, the mean ± SD age at diagnosis was 59.3 ± 12.8 years, 57.2% were men, and 58.7% had rectal cancer. On average, 14.4% of patients were diagnosed with stage IV disease, and this proportion increased from 13.5% in 2005 to 20.5% in 2014 (P value for trend < .05). For diagnostic techniques, along with less use of x-rays (average, 81.6%; decreased from 90.0% to 65.7%), there were increases in the use of computed tomography (average, 70.4%; increased from 4.5% to 90.5%) and magnetic resonance imaging (average, 8.8%; increased from 0.1% to 20.4%) over the study period from 2005 to 2014. With regard to treatment, surgery alone was the most common (average, 50.1%), but its use decreased from 51.3% to 39.8% during 2005 through 2014; and the use of other treatments increased simultaneously, such as chemotherapy alone (average, 4.1%; increased from 4.1% to 11.9%). The average medical expenditure per patient was 66,291 Chinese Yuan (2014 value) and increased from 47,259 to 86,709 Chinese Yuan. CONCLUSIONS: The increasing proportion of late-stage diagnoses presents a challenge for CRC control in China. Changes in diagnostic and treatment options and increased expenditures are clearly illustrated in this study. Coupled with the recent introduction of screening initiatives, these data provide an understanding of changes over time and may form a benchmark for future related evaluations of CRC interventions in China.


Assuntos
Neoplasias Colorretais , Utilização de Instalações e Serviços , Gastos em Saúde , Idoso , China/epidemiologia , Neoplasias Colorretais/economia , Neoplasias Colorretais/epidemiologia , Neoplasias Colorretais/terapia , Utilização de Instalações e Serviços/economia , Utilização de Instalações e Serviços/estatística & dados numéricos , Feminino , Gastos em Saúde/estatística & dados numéricos , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Estudos Retrospectivos , Inquéritos e Questionários
16.
Cancer ; 127(4): 577-585, 2021 02 15.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33084023

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Underinsured patients face significant barriers in accessing high-quality care. Evidence of whether access to high-volume surgical care is mediated by disparities in health insurance coverage remains wanting. METHODS: The authors used the National Cancer Data Base to identify all adult patients who had a confirmed diagnosis of breast, prostate, lung, or colorectal cancer during 2004 through 2016. The odds of receiving surgical care at a high-volume hospital were estimated according to the type of insurance using multivariable logistic regression analyses for each malignancy. Then, the interactions between study period and insurance status were assessed. RESULTS: In total, 1,279,738 patients were included in the study. Of these, patients with breast cancer who were insured by Medicare (odds ratio [OR], 0.75; P < .001), Medicaid (OR, 0.55; P < .001), or uninsured (OR, 0.50; P < .001); patients with prostate cancer who were insured by Medicare (OR, 0.87; P = .003), Medicaid (OR, 0.58; P = .001), or uninsured (OR, 0.36; P < .001); and patients with lung cancer who were insured by Medicare (OR, 0.84; P = .020), Medicaid (OR, 0.74; P = .001), or uninsured (OR, 0.48; P < .001) were less likely to receive surgical care at high-volume hospitals compared with patients who had private insurance. For patients with colorectal cancer, the effect of insurance differed by study period, and improved since 2011. For those on Medicaid, the odds of receiving care at a high-volume hospital were 0.51 during 2004 through 2007 and 0.99 during 2014 through 2016 (P for interaction = .001); for uninsured patients, the odds were 0.45 during 2004 through 2007 and 1.19 during 2014 through 2016 (P for interaction < .001) compared with patients who had private insurance. CONCLUSIONS: Uninsured, Medicare-insured, and Medicaid-insured patients are less likely to receive surgical care at high-volume hospitals. For uninsured and Medicaid-insured patients with colorectal cancer, the odds of receiving care at high-volume hospitals have improved since implementation of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act of 2010.


Assuntos
Acessibilidade aos Serviços de Saúde , Hospitais com Alto Volume de Atendimentos , Cobertura do Seguro , Seguro Saúde , Adulto , Idoso , Neoplasias da Mama/economia , Neoplasias da Mama/epidemiologia , Neoplasias da Mama/patologia , Neoplasias da Mama/terapia , Neoplasias Colorretais/economia , Neoplasias Colorretais/epidemiologia , Neoplasias Colorretais/patologia , Neoplasias Colorretais/terapia , Bases de Dados Factuais , Feminino , Gastos em Saúde , Humanos , Neoplasias Pulmonares/economia , Neoplasias Pulmonares/epidemiologia , Neoplasias Pulmonares/patologia , Neoplasias Pulmonares/terapia , Masculino , Medicaid , Pessoas sem Cobertura de Seguro de Saúde , Medicare , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act , Neoplasias da Próstata/economia , Neoplasias da Próstata/epidemiologia , Neoplasias da Próstata/patologia , Neoplasias da Próstata/terapia , Qualidade da Assistência à Saúde , Estados Unidos
17.
BMC Cancer ; 21(1): 1055, 2021 Sep 25.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34563142

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Patient medical out-of-pocket expenses are thought to be rising worldwide yet data describing trends over time is scant. We evaluated trends of out-of-pocket expenses for patients in Australia with one of five major cancers in the first-year after diagnosis. METHODS: Participants from the QSKIN Sun and Health prospective cohort Study with a histologically confirmed breast, colorectal, lung, melanoma, or prostate cancer diagnosed between 2011 and 2015 were included (n = 1965). Medicare claims data on out-of-pocket expenses were analysed using a two-part model adjusted for year of diagnosis, health insurance status, age and education level. Fisher price and quantity indexes were also calculated to assess prices and volumes separately. RESULTS: On average, patients with cancer diagnosed in 2015 spent 70% more out-of-pocket on direct medical expenses than those diagnosed in 2011. Out-of-pocket expenses increased significantly for patients with breast cancer (mean AU$2513 in 2011 to AU$6802 in 2015). Out-of-pocket expenses were higher overall for individuals with private health insurance. For prostate cancer, expenses increased for those without private health insurance over time (mean AU$1586 in 2011 to AU$4748 in 2014) and remained stable for those with private health insurance (AU$4397 in 2011 to AU$5623 in 2015). There were progressive increases in prices and quantities of medical services for patients with melanoma, breast and lung cancer. For all cancers, prices increased for medicines and doctor attendances but fluctuated for other medical services. CONCLUSION: Out-of-pocket expenses for patients with cancer have increased substantially over time. Such increases were more pronounced for women with breast cancer and those without private health insurance. Increased out-of-pocket expenses arose from both higher prices and higher volumes of health services but differ by cancer type. Further efforts to monitor patient out-of-pocket costs and prevent health inequities are required.


Assuntos
Financiamento Pessoal/tendências , Gastos em Saúde/tendências , Neoplasias/economia , Adulto , Fatores Etários , Idoso , Austrália , Neoplasias da Mama/economia , Neoplasias da Mama/terapia , Neoplasias Colorretais/economia , Neoplasias Colorretais/terapia , Custos Diretos de Serviços/tendências , Custos de Medicamentos/tendências , Escolaridade , Honorários Médicos/tendências , Feminino , Financiamento Pessoal/economia , Humanos , Cobertura do Seguro , Seguro Saúde/economia , Seguro Saúde/tendências , Neoplasias Pulmonares/economia , Neoplasias Pulmonares/terapia , Masculino , Melanoma/economia , Melanoma/terapia , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Neoplasias/terapia , Estudos Prospectivos , Neoplasias da Próstata/economia , Neoplasias da Próstata/terapia , Queensland , Fatores Sexuais , Fatores de Tempo
18.
Cancer Control ; 28: 10732748211009952, 2021.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33882706

RESUMO

Among cancers, colorectal cancer is the third most common cancer in the world and the fourth leading cause of cancer deaths worldwide. Some studies have shown that the incidence of colorectal cancer is increasing in Iran and in Fars province. The present study aimed to determine the economic burden of colorectal cancer in patients referred to the referral centers affiliated to Iran, Shiraz University of Medical Sciences in 2019 from the patients' perspective. This is a partial economic evaluation and a cost-of-illness study conducted cross-sectionally in 2019. All the patients with colorectal cancer who had been referred to the referral centers affiliated to Iran, Shiraz University of Medical Sciences, and had medical records were studied through the census method (N = 96). A researcher-made data collection form was used to collect the cost data. The prevalence-based and bottom-up approaches were also used in this study. The human capital approach was applied to calculate indirect costs. The mean annual cost per patient with colorectal cancer in the present study was $10930.98 purchasing power parity (PPP) (equivalent to 5745.29 USD), the main part of which was the medical direct costs (74.86%). Also, among the medical direct costs per patient, the highest were those of surgeries (41.7%). In addition, the mean annual cost per patient with colorectal cancer in the country was $ 116917762 PPP (equivalent to 61451621.84 USD) in 2019. Regarding the considerable economic burden of colorectal cancer and in order to reduce the costs, these suggestions can be made: increasing the number of specialized beds through the cooperation of health donors, establishing free or low-cost accommodation centers for patients and their companions near the medical centers, using the Internet and cyberspace technologies to follow up the treatment of patients, and increasing insurance coverage and government drug subsidies on drug purchase.


Assuntos
Neoplasias Colorretais/economia , Neoplasias Colorretais/terapia , Efeitos Psicossociais da Doença , Adulto , Estudos Transversais , Feminino , Humanos , Irã (Geográfico) , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Adulto Jovem
19.
J Surg Res ; 259: 420-430, 2021 03.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33092860

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Abundant studies have associated colorectal cancer (CRC) treatment delay with advanced diagnosis and worse mortality. Delay in seeking specialist is a contributor to CRC treatment delay. The goal of this study is to investigate contributing factors to 14-d delay from diagnosis of CRC on colonoscopy to the first specialist visit in the state of Kentucky. METHODS: The Kentucky Cancer Registry (KCR) database linked with health administrative claims data was queried to include adult patients diagnosed with stage I-IV CRC from January 2007 to December 2012. The dates of the last colonoscopy and the first specialist visit were identified through the claims. Bivariate and logistic regression analysis was performed to identify factors associated with delay to CRC specialist visit. RESULTS: A total of 3927 patients from 100 hospitals in Kentucky were included. Approximately, 19% of patients with CRC visited a specialist more than 14 d after CRC detection on colonoscopy. Delay to specialist (DTS) was found more likely in patients with Medicaid insurance (OR 3.1, P < 0.0001), low and moderate education level (OR 1.4 and 1.3, respectively, P = 0.0127), and stage I CRC (OR 1.5, P < 0.0001). There was a higher percentage of delay to specialist among Medicaid patients (44.0%) than Medicare (18.0%) and privately insured patients (18.8%). CONCLUSIONS: We identified Medicaid insurance, low education attainment, and early stage CRC diagnosis as independent risk factors associated with 14-d delay in seeking specialist care after CRC detection on colonoscopy.


Assuntos
Neoplasias Colorretais/terapia , Acessibilidade aos Serviços de Saúde/estatística & dados numéricos , Oncologia/estatística & dados numéricos , Aceitação pelo Paciente de Cuidados de Saúde/estatística & dados numéricos , Encaminhamento e Consulta/estatística & dados numéricos , Adulto , Assistência ao Convalescente/economia , Assistência ao Convalescente/estatística & dados numéricos , Idoso , Colonoscopia/estatística & dados numéricos , Neoplasias Colorretais/diagnóstico , Neoplasias Colorretais/economia , Detecção Precoce de Câncer/estatística & dados numéricos , Escolaridade , Feminino , Gastroenterologia/organização & administração , Gastroenterologia/estatística & dados numéricos , Acessibilidade aos Serviços de Saúde/economia , Humanos , Cobertura do Seguro/economia , Cobertura do Seguro/estatística & dados numéricos , Kentucky , Masculino , Programas de Rastreamento/organização & administração , Programas de Rastreamento/estatística & dados numéricos , Medicaid/economia , Medicaid/estatística & dados numéricos , Oncologia/economia , Medicare/economia , Medicare/estatística & dados numéricos , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Estadiamento de Neoplasias , Aceitação pelo Paciente de Cuidados de Saúde/psicologia , Encaminhamento e Consulta/economia , Programa de SEER/estatística & dados numéricos , Tempo para o Tratamento , Estados Unidos , Adulto Jovem
20.
Value Health ; 24(2): 206-215, 2021 02.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33518027

RESUMO

OBJECTIVES: Metamodeling can address computational challenges within decision-analytic modeling studies evaluating many strategies. This article illustrates the value of metamodeling for evaluating colorectal cancer screening strategies while accounting for colonoscopy capacity constraints. METHODS: In a traditional approach, the best screening strategy was identified from a limited subset of strategies evaluated with the validated Adenoma and Serrated pathway to Colorectal CAncer model. In a metamodeling approach, metamodels were fitted to this limited subset to evaluate all potentially plausible strategies and determine the best overall screening strategy. Approaches were compared based on the best screening strategy in life-years gained compared with no screening. Metamodel runtime and accuracy was assessed. RESULTS: The metamodeling approach evaluated >40 000 strategies in <1 minute with high accuracy after 1 adaptive sampling step (mean absolute error: 0.0002 life-years) using 300 samples in total (generation time: 8 days). Findings indicated that health outcomes could be improved without requiring additional colonoscopy capacity. Obtaining similar insights using the traditional approach could require at least 1000 samples (generation time: 28 days). Suggested benefits from screening at ages <40 years require adequate validation of the underlying Adenoma and Serrated pathway to Colorectal CAncer model before making policy recommendations. CONCLUSIONS: Metamodeling allows rapid assessment of a vast set of strategies, which may lead to identification of more favorable strategies compared to a traditional approach. Nevertheless, metamodel validation and identifying extrapolation beyond the support of the original decision-analytic model are critical to the interpretation of results. The screening strategies identified with metamodeling support ongoing discussions on decreasing the starting age of colorectal cancer screening.


Assuntos
Neoplasias Colorretais/diagnóstico , Detecção Precoce de Câncer/métodos , Modelos Estatísticos , Adulto , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Neoplasias Colorretais/economia , Análise Custo-Benefício , Detecção Precoce de Câncer/economia , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Países Baixos , Sangue Oculto , Anos de Vida Ajustados por Qualidade de Vida
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