From expert-based to quantitative retrospective exposure assessment at a Soderberg aluminum smelter.

OBJECTIVES: Expert judgement of exposure levels is often only poorly or moderately correlated with directly measured levels. For a follow-up of a historical cohort study at a Söderberg aluminum smelter we updated an expert-based semiquantitative job exposure matrix of coal tar pitch volatiles (CTPV) to quantitative estimates of CTPV and benzo(a)pyrene (BaP). METHODS: Mixed effects models to predict exposure for potroom operation and maintenance jobs were constructed from personal CTPV and BaP measurements. Mean exposures of jobs in non-potroom locations were directly calculated when measurements were available. Exposure estimates for jobs/time periods with no measurements were based on proportion of time spent in exposed areas compared to jobs where exposure was modeled or measured. For pre-1977, the original expert exposure assignments were calibrated using the updated 1977 estimates. RESULTS: The rate of change in exposure levels varied by time period and was accounted for in mixed models with a linear spline time trend. Other variables significant in the models were job, potroom group and season as fixed effects, and worker as a random effect. The models for potroom operations explained 45 and 27% of the variability in the CTPV and BaP measurements, respectively. The models for maintenance jobs explained 40 and 19% of the variability in the CTPV and BaP measurements, respectively. For 1977-2000 model estimates, direct calculation of means and extrapolation from modeled/measured exposures accounted for 57, 6 and 37% of the exposed person-years, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The above methodology maximized the use of exposure measurements and largely replaced the original expert-based estimates. Finer discrimination between exposure levels was possible with the updated exposure assessment. The new estimates are expected to reduce exposure misclassification and help better assess the exposure-response relationships.