Risk Factors Affecting Graft and Patient Survivals After Transplantation From Deceased Donors in a Developing Country: A Single-Center Experience.

ABSTRACT

AIM: The aim of this study was to evaluate risk factors affecting graft and patient survival after transplantation from deceased donors. METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed the outcomes of 186 transplantations from deceased donors performed at our center between 2006 and 2014. The recipients were divided into two groups Group I (141 recipients without graft loss) and Group II (45 recipients with graft loss). Kaplan-Meier, log-rank test, and Cox proportional hazard regressions were used. RESULTS: The characteristics of both groups were similar except renal resistive index at the last follow-ups. When graft survival and mortality at the first, third, and fifth years were analyzed, tacrolimus (Tac)-based regimens were superior to cyclosporine (CsA)-based regimens (P < .001). Risk factors associated with graft survival at the first year included cardiac cause of death (versus cerebrovascular accident [CVA]; hazard ratio [HR], 6.36; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.84-22.05; P = .004), older transplant age (HR, 1.05; 95% CI, 1.02-1.08; P < .001), and high serum creatinine level at 6 months post-transplantation (HR, 1.74; 95% CI, 1.48-2.03; P < .001), whereas younger donor age decreased risk (HR, 0.97; 95% CI, 0.95-1.00; P = .019). Also, the Tac-based regimen had a 3.63-fold (95% CI, 1.47-8.97; P = .005) lower risk factor than the CsA-based regimen, and 2.93-fold (95% CI, 1.13-7.63; P = .027) than other regimens without calcineurin inhibitors. When graft survival at 3 years was analyzed, diabetes mellitus was lower than idiopathic causes and pyelonephritis (P = .035). In Cox regression analysis at year 3, older transplantation age (HR, 1.20; 95% CI, 1.04-1.39; P = .014) and serum creatinine level at month 6 post-transplantation (HR, 1.65; 95% CI, 1.42-1.90; P < .001) were significant risk factors for graft survival. Hemodialysis (HD) plus peritoneal dialysis (PD) treatment was 2.22-fold (95% CI, 1.08-4.58; P = .03) risk factor than only HD before transplantation. When graft survival and mortality at year 5 were analyzed, diabetes mellitus was lower compared with all other diseases. In Cox regression analysis at year 5, younger donor age (HR, 0.73; 95% CI, 0.62-0.86; P < .001) was protective for graft survival, whereas older transplantation age (HR, 1.40; 95% CI, 1.20-1.64; P < .001) and serum creatinine level at month 6 of post-transplantation (HR, 1.39; 95% CI, 1.19-1.61; P < .001) were significant risk factors. PD increased 3.32 (95% CI, 1.28-8.61; P = .014) times the risk than HD. In Cox regression analysis at year 1, cardiac cause of death (versus CVA; HR, 5.28; 95% CI, 1.37-20.31; P = .016), CsA-based regimen (versus Tac; HR, 4.95; 95% CI, 1.78-13.78; P = .002), HD plus PD treatment (versus alone HD; HR, 3.26; 95% CI, 1.28-8.30; P = .013), older transplantation age (HR, 1.08; 95% CI, 1.04-1.11; P < .001), serum creatinine level at month 6 post-transplantation (HR, 1.34; 95% CI, 1.11-1.62; P = .003), and low HLA mismatches (HR, 1.67; 95% CI 1.01-2.70; P = .044) were risk factors for mortality. At year 3, CsA-based regimen (versus Tac; HR, 3.54; 95% CI, 1.32-9.47; P = .012), PD (versus HD; HR, 5.04; 95% CI, 1.41-18.05; P = .013), HD plus PD treatment (versus alone HD; HR, 3.51; 95% CI, 1.37-9.04; P = .009), and older transplantation age (HR, 1.27; 95% CI 1.05-1.53; P = .015) were risk factors for mortality. At year 5, older age at transplantation (HR, 1.47; 95% CI, 1.23-1.77; P < .001), PD (versus HD; HR, 9.21; 95% CI, 3.09-27.45; P < .001), and CsA-based regimen (versus Tac; HR, 2.75; 95% CI, 1.04-7.23; P = .041) were risk factors for mortality, whereas younger donor age decreased risk (HR, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.56-0.86; P < .001). CONCLUSION: Death of donor with cardiac cause, CsA-based immunosuppressive regimen, donor age, serum creatinine level at month 6 post-transplantation, and renal replacement therapy before transplantation affected mortality and graft survival in deceased donors.