Nomogram for predicting diabetes mellitus after the first attack of acute pancreatitis.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Diabetes mellitus can occur after acute pancreatitis (AP), but there are currently no tools for evaluating the risk of developing diabetes after an attack of AP. The aim of the study was to develop a nomogram for prediction of new-onset diabetes mellitus after the first attack of AP. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We enrolled 616 patients with first-attack AP. We collected and statistically analyzed demographic data (age, BMI, and duration of hospitalization) and laboratory data (glucose, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, triglyceride, and cholesterol). RESULTS: Univariate analysis suggested duration of hospitalization (P=0.0003), BMI (P=0.0059), cholesterol (P=0.0005), triglyceride (P=0.0005), hemoglobin (P=0.0229), and glucose (P<0.001) at admission were significantly associated with newly developed diabetes after the first-attack AP. Multivariate analysis showed that age [odds ratio (OR)=1.01; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.00-1.03; P=0.045], BMI (OR=1.06; 95% CI 1.01-1.12; P=0.018), glucose (OR=1.07; 95% CI 1.02-1.12; P=0.008), triglyceride (OR=1.03; 95% CI 1.00-1.06; P=0.035), and low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (OR=1.18; 95% CI 1.00-1.38; P=0.044) at admission were important predictors. CONCLUSION: The nomogram is a potentially clinically useful tool for predicting new-onset diabetes, which is currently clinically unprecedented. This finding is not confined to the patients with severe AP but is also for patients who have recovered from mild AP. The nomogram must to be validated externally.