Predicting the duration of surgery and procedures in a veterinary referral center.

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the ability of veterinary personnel to predict the duration of surgery and associated procedures in a referral center. STUDY DESIGN: Prospective observational study. SAMPLE POPULATION Experienced surgeons (ES; n = 2, board certified for 10+ years), inexperienced surgeons (IS; n = 2, residency completed, not board certified), anesthesia animal health technicians (AAHT; n = 3) and surgery animal health technicians (SAHT; n = 2). METHODS: Surgeons and technicians predicted surgery duration (skin incision to final stitch/staple) and total procedure duration (TPD; from induction of anesthesia to extubation). Predictions were compared to actual durations with Bland-Altman plots to assess agreement (accuracy) as indicated by bias (mean of observed differences) and limits of agreement (LOA; bias ±1.96 SD). RESULTS: All groups underestimated TPD. Experienced surgeons predicted their own TPD more accurately (bias -20.1 ± 30.4 minutes [±SD]) and more consistently (narrower LOA) than IS for their own TPD (-40.1 ± 41.0 minutes). Experienced surgeon TPD predictions by AAHT were more accurate than those by ES (bias -16.0 ± 28.9 minutes, LOA 5% narrower). Inexperienced surgeon TPD predictions by AAHT were less consistent (wider LOA) than those by IS. Own surgery duration predictions by surgeons were similar in magnitude (ES surgery duration [ESSD] 8.3 ± 18.3, IS surgery duration [ISSD] surgery duration -7.9 ± 27.2 minutes), with greater consistency by ES (LOA 30% narrower). Anesthesia animal health technician predictions were similar to those of surgeons (ESSD 3.0 ± 19.3, ISSD -9.0 ± 28.7 minutes). Surgery animal health technician predictions were similar to those of AAHT for ESSD but were less accurate for ISSD. CONCLUSION: Surgery duration was more accurately predicted than TPD, which was most accurately predicted by anesthesia technicians. CLINICAL SIGNIFICANCE: Surgical procedure planning should involve personnel best able to predict total procedure durations; in this case, anesthesia technicians. Accurate planning will promote efficient operating room and personnel use.