CoVA: An Acuity Score for Outpatient Screening that Predicts Coronavirus Disease 2019 Prognosis.
J Infect Dis
; 223(1): 38-46, 2021 01 04.
Article
en En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-33098643
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND:
We sought to develop an automatable score to predict hospitalization, critical illness, or death for patients at risk for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) presenting for urgent care.METHODS:
We developed the COVID-19 Acuity Score (CoVA) based on a single-center study of adult outpatients seen in respiratory illness clinics or the emergency department. Data were extracted from the Partners Enterprise Data Warehouse, and split into development (nâ =â 9381, 7 March-2 May) and prospective (nâ =â 2205, 3-14 May) cohorts. Outcomes were hospitalization, critical illness (intensive care unit or ventilation), or death within 7 days. Calibration was assessed using the expected-to-observed event ratio (E/O). Discrimination was assessed by area under the receiver operating curve (AUC).RESULTS:
In the prospective cohort, 26.1%, 6.3%, and 0.5% of patients experienced hospitalization, critical illness, or death, respectively. CoVA showed excellent performance in prospective validation for hospitalization (expected-to-observed ratio [E/O] 1.01; AUC 0.76), for critical illness (E/O 1.03; AUC 0.79), and for death (E/O 1.63; AUC 0.93). Among 30 predictors, the top 5 were age, diastolic blood pressure, blood oxygen saturation, COVID-19 testing status, and respiratory rate.CONCLUSIONS:
CoVA is a prospectively validated automatable score for the outpatient setting to predict adverse events related to COVID-19 infection.Palabras clave
Texto completo:
1
Banco de datos:
MEDLINE
Asunto principal:
Índice de Severidad de la Enfermedad
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COVID-19
Tipo de estudio:
Diagnostic_studies
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Observational_studies
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Prognostic_studies
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Risk_factors_studies
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Screening_studies
Límite:
Adult
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Aged
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Female
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Humans
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Male
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Middle aged
Idioma:
En
Año:
2021
Tipo del documento:
Article