External Validation of Scoring Models to Predict Shunt Insertion after Aneurysmal Subarachnoid Hemorrhage.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The current study is an external validation of 4 scoring models proposed in the literature for predicting ventriculoperitoneal shunt insertion after aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH) using retrospective patient data from Sheffield Teaching Hospital (STH). METHODS: Data were collected on various demographics, and patients were individually scored using the 4 scoring models. Models were compared with each other using receiver-operator characteristic curves. The best model had the highest area under the curve. RESULTS: A total of 301 aSAH patients were referred to the neurosurgery department in STH between 1 January 2014 and 31 December 2017. Scoring model 4 also had the largest area under the curve of 0.853 (P < 0.001), and scoring model 3 had the lowest area under the curve of 0.654 (P = 0.036). CONCLUSIONS: Scoring model 4 was found to be the best scoring model out of the 4 scoring models externally validated to predict shunt dependency after an aSAH in STH patients. Scoring model 4 is less applicable in modern practice due to a higher proportion of coiling and use of the Hunt and Hess scale grade. A new scoring model is needed to predict shunt insertion in modern practice.