[Long-term Succession Patterns and Driving Factors of Water Quality in a Flood-pulse System Lake: A Case Study of Lake Luoma, Jiangsu Province].

ABSTRACT

Lake Luoma is an important storage lake for the Eastern route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project (NSBD), which has many functions including flood control and irrigation, drinking water supply, and ecological maintenance. In order to understand the succession patterns and driving factors of water quality in Lake Luoma, we used monthly monitoring data from 2009 to 2020 in combination with historical data from 1996 to 2008. The long-term succession patterns, seasonal dynamics, and spatial patterns of total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP), permanganate index, and ammonia nitrogen (NH+4-N) were examined, and the influence of meteorological and hydrological factors on water quality was explored through correlation analyses and generalized additive models. The results showed that it remained in the status of grade Ⅳ-inferior Ⅴ over the past 25 years. The concentration of TN, which was the main pollutant, changed significantly (1.06-3.49 mg·L-1), experiencing three stages of gradual decline (1996-2002), significant interannual fluctuation (2002-2015), and significant increase (2015-2020). Permanganate index decreased significantly (2.97-6.38 mg·L-1), whereas TP and NH+4-N concentration fluctuated slightly, ranging from 0.024-0.076 mg·L-1 and 0.11-0.69 mg·L-1, respectively. The concentration of TN and TP increased abnormally in the summer of 2017-2020, reaching 3.30 mg·L-1 and 0.14 mg·L-1 in August, respectively, which was approximately 1.5 and 2.4 times the annual average. In terms of seasonal dynamics, the seasonal variation in water quality between summer/autumn and winter/spring reversed after 2015, with water quality in summer/autumn being worse than that in winter and spring, indicating the exacerbation of eutrophication. The water quality in the southern area was obviously better than that in the northern area. The input of pollutants from the Yihe River and Middle Canal increased with water quantity since 2015, which drove the water quality deterioration through nutrients. Our results suggested that the water quality of Lake Luoma should be improved by strengthening exogenous pollution reduction, endogenous control, polder dismantling, and ecological restoration.