[Study on the prognostic influencing factors of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma and the predictive value of inflammatory reaction indexes on its postoperative recurrence].

Objective: To explore the influence factors of poor prognosis of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) and the predictive value of inflammatory reaction indexes including neutrophils and lymphocytes ratio (NLR), platelet and lymphocyte ratio (PLR), monocyte and lymphocyte ratio (MLR) provision and differentiation degree, infiltration depth, lymph node metastasis number on the postoperative recurrence of ESCC. Methods: A total of 130 patients with ESCC who underwent radical resection from February 2017 to February 2019 in Nanyang Central Hospital were selected and divided into good prognosis group (66 cases) and poor prognosis group (64 cases) according to the prognostic effect. The clinical data and follow-up data were collected. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to determine the independent influencing factors of poor prognosis. Spearman correlation analysis was used to determine the correlation between preoperative NLR, PLR and MLR with the degree of differentiation, depth of invasion and number of lymph node metastases. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was used to evaluate the efficacy of NLR, PLR and MLR in predicting poor prognosis of ESCC. Results: Univariate analysis showed that the degree of differentiation, the degree of invasion and the number of lymph node metastasis were related to the prognoses of patients with ESCC (P<0.05). Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that the degree of differentiation, depth of invasion and number of lymph node metastases were independent influencing factors for poor prognosis of patients with ESCC, moderate differentiation (OR=2.603, 95% CI: 1.009-6.715) or low differentiation (OR=9.909, 95% CI: 3.097-31.706), infiltrating into fibrous membrane (OR=14.331, 95% CI: 1.333-154.104) or surrounding tissue (OR=23.368, 95% CI: 1.466-372.578), the number of lymph node metastases ≥ 3 (OR=9.225, 95% CI: 1.693-50.263) indicated poor prognosis. Spearman correlation analysis showed that NLR was negatively correlated with the degree of differentiation and the number of lymph node metastases (r=-0.281, P=0.001; r=-0.257, P=0.003), PLR was negatively correlated with the degree of differentiation, depth of invasion and number of lymph node metastasis (r=-0.250, P=0.004; r=0.197, P=0.025; r=-0.194, P=0.027), MLR was positively correlated with the degree of differentiation and the number of lymph node metastasis (r=0.248, P=0.004; r=0.196, P=0.025). ROC curve analysis showed that the areas under the curve of NLR, PLR and MLR in predicting poor prognosis of ESCC were 0.971, 0.925 and 0.834, respectively. The best cut-off value of NLR was 2.87. The sensitivity and specificity of NLR in predicting poor prognosis of ESCC were 90.6% and 87.9%, respectively. The optimal cut-off value of PLR was 141.75. The sensitivity and specificity for predicting poor prognosis of ESCC were 92.2% and 87.9%, respectively. The best cut-off value of MLR was 0.40. The sensitivity and specificity of MLR in predicting poor prognosis of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma were 54.7% and 100.0%, respectively. Conclusions: The degree of differentiation, the degree of invasion and the number of lymph node metastases are closely related to the poor prognosis of patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma. NLR, PLR and MLR can provide important information for predicting the poor prognosis of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma.