Productivity Decline or Administrative Avalanche? Examining Factors That Shape Changing Workloads in Primary Care.

Background: In Canada, family physicians (FPs) per capita have increased but so have access challenges. We explored changes in population characteristics, service delivery and FP practice that may help understand these trends. Methods: We used linked administrative data in British Columbia to describe changes in patient ages and comorbidities, hospitalizations and receipt of services that may require FP coordination, review and/or follow-up: prescriptions dispensed, laboratory tests, diagnostic imaging (radiology and ultrasound), specialist visits and emergency department visits. We estimate the number of FPs delivering community-based comprehensive care and report changes in service volume per community-based FP visit. Results: Between 1999/2000 and 2017/2018, people experienced fewer days in hospital, but the number of treated comorbidities, day surgeries and other services requiring FP coordination increased over and above the expected levels attributed to population aging. While the total number of FPs per capita have increased, numbers in community-based care have not and visits per physician have fallen. Increases in services that may involve FP coordination per community-based FP visit ranged from 32.2% for diagnostic radiology to 122.1% for lab tests. Conclusion: Findings suggest substantially increased coordination workload per FP visit. Ongoing impacts of population aging and changing service delivery on primary care workload require further examination.